AI Picks · 15 Bets · Jul 11
DET Team Total o3.5 (+122)
C. Sanchez has a xERA 4.06 but ERA 8.22 with HH% 51% and recent ERA 5.56. DET offense is wRC+ 129 vs LHP (strong) in L12 — one of the hotter offensive splits on the board today. PHI bullpen is atrocious (xERA 4.54, ERA 8.26). DET scored enough in Casey Mize's home starts (3.51 ERA at home) to offset any pitcher concerns. The +122 price offers genuine value — the market seems too focused on Mize struggling recently while underweighting that DET hits LHP well and PHI's pen is terrible. DET averaging 2.8 RS in Mize's home starts is low, but facing Sanchez (high contact, big ERA) plus a terrible PHI pen, 3.5+ runs is very achievable.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
KCR Team Total u3.5 (+110)
Bradish is elite (xERA 2.68, recent ERA 2.81, averaging 8.7 K/start in L3) with a strong home park and bullpen support (BAL bullpen xERA 2.61). KCR offense is average at wRC+ 103 but K% is 24.6% — above average swing-and-miss for Bradish to exploit. KCR in pitcher's recent starts averages only 3.4 RS away and is 1-4 on the road in last 5. Cameron's own struggles are irrelevant here — this is purely Bradish limiting KCR's run output. At +110, getting paid to take KCR under 3.5 against an elite pitcher with a dominant bullpen behind him is positive EV.
Found at 5:08 AM ET
Kyle Bradish o5.5 Ks (+115)
Bradish averages 8.7 K/start in last 3, including 9K and 12K outings, vs LAA and SEA — both above-average K% lineups similar to or better than KCR's 24.6%. The KCR flag notes 'recent opponents low-K' for Cameron, not Bradish, so there's no negative calibration needed for Bradish. His season K% is 20.5% with an elite xERA 2.68. The Outs O/U at 17.5 with juice on the under (-147) signals the market expects ~6 IP, giving Bradish enough innings to accumulate Ks. Adjusted expectation of ~7-8 Ks well exceeds the 5.5 line. At +115, this is clear plus-money value.
Found at 5:08 AM ET
HOU ML (+100)
Kumar Rocker is acutely struggling (recent ERA 9.86 despite elite xERA 2.39 — a 7+ run gap between recent ERA and xERA, flagged as STRUGGLING). Recent bullpen appearance, home ERA 8.11 in 3 starts, and 1 prior start vs HOU at 7.20 ERA. TEX offense is poor at wRC+ 78 vs RHP. HOU's bullpen is elite (xERA 2.41, ERA 2.01), the best pen on today's slate. Peter Lambert is in solid form (recent ERA 2.60, xERA 3.22) and HOU offense is above average at wRC+ 115. Getting HOU at even money (+100) against a struggling Rocker with an elite bullpen behind Lambert is strong value — the market sets TEX as a slight favorite based on home field, but the pitching matchup strongly favors HOU.
Found at 5:08 AM ET
BAL Team Total o4.5 (-113)
Noah Cameron is a disaster: xERA 6.49 (poor), recent ERA 7.66, ERA 7.90, BB% 14.9%, flagged for high pitch count last start (105 pitches). He has no history at Camden Yards and struggles vs virtually every lineup. BAL is 4-1 at home in Bradish's recent starts averaging 7.2 RS, and the park (APF 106) favors offense. KCR bullpen xERA is 4.62 — mediocre. Even if Cameron exits early, the KCR pen doesn't project to shut down BAL. Multiple signals (terrible starter, good home offense, hitter-friendly park, strong bullpen support from BAL side) strongly support BAL scoring 5+.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
Kumar Rocker u4.5 Ks (-138)
Rocker is averaging only 3.5 K/start in his last 3 outings despite an elite K% season average. He's been pulled early in recent starts (Outs line at 15.5 implies ~5.2 IP expected), limiting K accumulation. HOU's K% vs RHP is 22.5% — average, not strikeout-prone. Adjusted expectation sits around 3.5–4.0 Ks, comfortably below 4.5. The -138 is steep but the edge is clear given his acute struggles.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
Line Warning: If -138 is too rich, the Rocker Outs Under 15.5 at -108 is a better-priced expression of the same 'Rocker exits early' thesis.
CHC Team Total o4.5 (-136)
CHC offense is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 139 in L12 — among the highest on the board today). Nick Lodolo is struggling (recent ERA 6.09, 7ER in his recent disastrous start). His home ERA is 5.07 and he's given up 4+ ER in 2 of 3 recent starts. CIN bullpen xERA 3.74 is decent but the offense is CHC's edge regardless. CHC averaging 6.2 RS in away starts. The -136 juice is steep but the edge is clear: elite L12 offense vs a struggling starter who has historically allowed runs at this park. CHC scoring 5+ is a high-probability outcome.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
ARI @ LAD F5 u4.5 (+106)
Yamamoto is elite (xERA 2.86, recent ERA 2.04) with dominant ARI history (1.42 ERA in 3 gs vs ARI, 7.7 K/gs). ARI offense is cold at wRC+ 70 vs RHP L12. Pfaadt's flags are severe: 3 straight abbreviated outings (1.0, 1.2, 1.2 IP), recent bullpen appearances, and 72-pitch last start suggesting an injury concern or strict early hook — meaning ARI's run production in the first 5 almost entirely falls on Yamamoto's dominance against a cold lineup. LAD offense is average at wRC+ 106. The F5 market prices this at +106 for the under, offering positive value. Both teams figure to combine for under 4.5 in first 5 innings with Yamamoto dealing and Pfaadt likely capped around 2 IP again.
Found at 5:08 AM ET
Y. Yamamoto o6.5 Ks (+127)
Yamamoto averages 5.7 K/start in recent 3, but those came vs BAL, CHW, and LAA — none particularly high-K lineups. ARI L12 K% is 20.2%, roughly in line with league average, meaning no downward calibration is needed. Yamamoto's season K% is 26.7%, his xERA is elite at 2.86, and his ARI matchup history shows 7.7 K/gs in 3 starts. The bullpen flag (LAD stressed, manager leans starter in longer) supports Yamamoto going deep. The Outs O/U 18.5 line confirms market expects 6+ innings. At +127, adjusted expectation of ~7+ Ks comfortably exceeds the 6.5 line by more than 0.5 — strong over signal at plus money.
Found at 5:08 AM ET
LAD F5 ML -270 (-270)
Yamamoto is dominant: elite xERA 2.86, recent ERA 2.04, 1.42 ERA vs ARI in 3 career starts, 1.71 ERA at home. ARI's offense is ice cold (wRC+ 70 vs RHP) and Pfaadt is a massive concern — only 1.0–1.2 IP per start in his last 3 outings (37, 31, 23 pitches), clearly coming out of a bullpen role and flagged for possible injury. The ARI offense is being handed to the bullpen almost immediately. Yamamoto going deep vs a weak ARI offense is as reliable a F5 edge as exists today.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
Line Warning: ARI Team Total Under 3.5 (-135) is a better-priced expression of this same edge — Yamamoto dominates ARI historically and ARI offense is wRC+ 70.
ARI Team Total u3.5 (-135)
Yamamoto has a 1.42 ERA vs ARI in 3 career starts with 7.7 K/gs. His recent ERA is 2.04 — sharp right now. ARI offense is wRC+ 70 vs RHP in L12 (very cold), and their starter Pfaadt is essentially coming out of the bullpen (max 1.2 IP in each of his last 3 starts), meaning ARI's bullpen faces Yamamoto's lineup from inning 1–2. LAD bullpen is also solid (xERA 3.15). The combination of an elite, historically dominant starter vs a cold offense that will need heavy bullpen usage makes 3.5 an achievable cap for ARI runs.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
MIN Team Total o4.5 (-130)
Joe Ryan is currently hot (recent ERA 2.40, 7.0 K/start avg) and has historically dominated LAA (1.38 ERA in 2 starts, 8.5 K/gs). MIN offense is strong vs RHP (wRC+ 124) and averages 5.4 RS in home starts. Ryan Johnson's history vs MIN is a red flag (5.40 ERA in 1 start). LAA is 0-3 in their last 3 away starts with only 1.3 RS/game — historically anemic on the road. Target Field is a hitter-friendly park (APF 108). The -130 price reflects a reasonable edge given the run of data.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
TOR @ SDP u8.5 (-118)
Walker Buehler is on a genuine hot streak (recent ERA 1.78 over 3 starts, 5.7 K/avg) despite a misleading 10.67 season ERA — a clear case where recent form far outpaces season ERA, meaning the market may be overpricing runs. TOR offense is one of today's coldest lineups (wRC+ 61 in L12, poor). Trey Yesavage's season ERA 1.96 vs xERA 3.23 suggests some luck, but his K% is solid and TOR makes weak contact (HH% 30.2%). Petco Park suppresses offense (APF 98). Both bullpens are functional. The 8.5 total accounts for Buehler's inflated ERA, but with his hot recent form + cold TOR offense, under is the play.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
SEA @ TBR u7.5 (-118)
Logan Gilbert is one of the best pitchers in baseball (xERA 1.94, recent ERA 1.41, K% 30.1%) and is squarely locked in his best recent form (6.1, 7.0, 6.0 IP with only 3 ER combined in last 3). SEA offense is below average vs RHP at wRC+ 90 with K% 25.8% — vulnerable to Jax. Griffin Jax is also hot (recent ERA 1.20, averaging 5.7 K/start in last 3). Both pitchers have been excellent recently. The SEA and TBR bullpens are both in the 3.75-3.80 xERA range — solid enough to protect a low-run game through 9. TBR offense at wRC+ 118 L12 is the main concern, but that's neutralized by Gilbert's elite form. The total of 7.5 with two hot starters and decent pens is well worth the under.
Found at 5:08 AM ET
Logan Gilbert o6.5 Ks (+134)
Gilbert averages 7.7 K/start in last 3 (8K, 10K, 5K) vs BOS and BAL — both moderate K% opponents. TBR L12 K% is 19.9%, which is actually slightly below average — a modest downward calibration brings adjusted expectation to roughly 7.0-7.5 Ks, still well above the 6.5 line. Gilbert's season K% is 30.1% (elite), his xERA is 1.94 (best in this slate), and the TBR bullpen flag (stressed, manager leans starter in longer) supports a 6+ inning outing. The Outs O/U 18.5 line at +125 (no strong edge there) doesn't cap him. At +134, this is outstanding plus-money value for the best pitcher on the board.
Found at 5:08 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
ATH @ 
CHW2:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
ATH @ CHWMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Gage Jump L
xERA5.19 (below avg)K%23.8 (good)HH%55.8 (poor)Barrel%11.6 (below avg)ERA7.82IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs87BB%6.3
CHW vs LHP
wRC+44 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Bryan Hudson
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
ATH
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH-112-1.5 (+140)O9.0 (-114)CHW-104+1.5 (-164)U9.0 (-105)
Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@ L5.28675211
L5.28675211Jul 5vs 
L3.08518356
L3.08518356Jun 29vs 
L4.291511055
L4.291511055Jun 24@ 
L5.09793100
L5.09793100Jun 18vs 
W7.010771300
W7.010771300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.21.737.05.02.0(1)
at CHW5.21.737.05.02.0(1)
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 1-4 vs CHW this season (5 games).
- ATH are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have lost 7 straight.
- ATH are 2-3 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-1 in Gage Jump's last 3 away starts.
- ATH average 4.8 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 2.7 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 4-1 vs ATH this season (5 games).
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 5.44 (poor)ERA 7.092d stress Stressed (13.0 IP/2g)
CHW
xERA 2.63 (elite)ERA 2.472d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 12 mph NNE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- ATH — Gage Jump: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHW — Bryan Hudson: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.44 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ATH bullpen stressed (13.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATH — Gage Jump: high-K outing 2026-06-24 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- ATH — Gage Jump: low-K outing 2026-07-05 (1 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
LAA @ 
MIN✓2:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
LAA @ MIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Johnson R
xERA2.97 (elite)K%28.8 (elite)HH%38.5 (avg)Barrel%7.7 (good)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs81BB%3.4
MIN vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%19.5 (above avg)HH%39.7 (avg)
Joe Ryan R
xERA2.65 (elite)K%31.9 (elite)HH%43.2 (below avg)Barrel%15.9 (poor)ERA5.29IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs97BB%6.9
LAA vs RHP
wRC+73 (poor)K%24.3 (below avg)HH%35.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+119+1.5 (-186)O9.0 (-101)MIN-132-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (-102)
Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@ L5.07513333
L5.07513333Jul 5vs 
L4.08766125
L4.08766125Jun 29@ 
L5.08134013
L5.08134013Jun 23vs 
W6.09081100
W6.09081100Jun 18@ L5.08928155
L5.08928155Joe Ryan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11vs W6.09466222
W6.09466222Jul 5@ 
W7.010693100
W7.010693100Jun 30@ 
L4.09155306
L4.09155306Jun 24vs L6.09898144
L6.09898144Jun 18@ 
W5.09773200
W5.09773200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Johnson
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN5.05.401.03.03.0(1)
at MIN5.05.401.03.03.0(1)
Joe Ryan
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.51.388.55.01.5(2)
home starts6.04.507.76.71.0(3)
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 1-4 in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 0-3 in Ryan Johnson's last 3 away starts.
- LAA average 2.8 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 1.3 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 3-2 in Joe Ryan's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Joe Ryan's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 6.2 runs/game in Joe Ryan's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 5.4 runs/game in Joe Ryan's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.84 (avg)ERA 4.842d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
MIN
xERA 4.01 (avg)ERA 3.822d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
87°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph SSW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- MIN — Joe Ryan: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAA bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAA — Ryan Johnson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-19, 2026-05-17 — may affect pitch count or availability
- MIN — Joe Ryan: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
MIN Team Total o4.5 (-130)
Joe Ryan is currently hot (recent ERA 2.40, 7.0 K/start avg) and has historically dominated LAA (1.38 ERA in 2 starts, 8.5 K/gs). MIN offense is strong vs RHP (wRC+ 124) and averages 5.4 RS in home starts. Ryan Johnson's history vs MIN is a red flag (5.40 ERA in 1 start). LAA is 0-3 in their last 3 away starts with only 1.3 RS/game — historically anemic on the road. Target Field is a hitter-friendly park (APF 108). The -130 price reflects a reasonable edge given the run of data.
COL @ SFG4:05 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
COL @ SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kyle Freeland L
xERA5.58 (poor)K%17.8 (avg)HH%46.6 (poor)Barrel%19.0 (poor)ERA7.88IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs8.7PC/gs60BB%2.7
SFG vs LHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%19.8 (above avg)HH%37.2 (avg)
Tyler Mahle R
xERA3.64 (good)K%20.3 (avg)HH%30.9 (good)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA4.40IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs67BB%8.5
COL vs RHP
wRC+131 (elite)K%18.9 (above avg)HH%35.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+135+1.5 (-171)O8.5 (-108)SFG-144-1.5 (+146)U8.5 (+100)
Kyle Freeland · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@ L2.02220000
L2.02220000Jul 6@ L5.07229066
L5.07229066Jul 1vs W5.08576122
W5.08576122Jun 24vs W6.081411166
W6.081411166Jun 19vs 
W7.18184022
W7.18184022Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11vs L2.24032111
L2.24032111Jul 5@ L4.17558034
L4.17558034Jun 29@ 
L4.18534344
L4.18534344Jun 24vs W5.27042200
W5.27042200May 26vs L5.08133333
L5.08133333SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Freeland
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG2.75.622.01.70.3(3)
at SFG4.73.863.73.31.0(3)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs COL4.13.634.34.70.7(3)
home starts4.12.903.32.32.0(3)
Trends · COL
- COL are 5-3 vs SFG this season (8 games).
- COL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 3-2 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-4 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 6.0 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL average 6.0 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 3-5 vs COL this season (8 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 1-4 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 4-1 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 4.0 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 4.4 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.74 (below avg)ERA 4.372d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
SFG
xERA 2.76 (elite)ERA 5.832d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
67°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph W
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- COL — Kyle Freeland: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- COL — Kyle Freeland: Barrel% 19% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- COL — Kyle Freeland: last start: 72 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- SFG — Tyler Mahle: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- SFG — Tyler Mahle: 2026-06-29: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Freeland has an alarming Barrel% of 19% and poor xERA (5.58), but the SFG offense is only average vs LHP (wRC+ 113) and Mahle is also short-outing recently (75 pitches last start); Freeland's at-park ERA of 3.86 at Oracle is meaningfully better than his overall numbers, and Oracle Park suppresses offense (APF 98) — too many conflicting signals to find a clean edge.
MIL @ PIT4:05 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
MIL @ PITMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Shane Drohan
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
PIT
No data
Bubba Chandler R
xERA4.01 (avg)K%13.7 (below avg)HH%47.2 (poor)Barrel%3.8 (elite)ERA5.74IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs72BB%12.3
MIL vs RHP
wRC+116 (above avg)K%21.6 (avg)HH%43.3 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+108+1.5 (-196)O8.5 (-110)PIT-126-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (-110)
Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11vs L1.03322100
L1.03322100Jul 5@ 
W4.08606444
W4.08606444Jun 30@ 
L6.19767255
L6.19767255Jun 25vs W5.17545311
W5.17545311Jun 19@ L6.07416222
L6.07416222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bubba Chandler
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL1.625.312.55.52.0(2)
home starts3.82.394.03.31.7(3)
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 1-4 vs PIT this season (5 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 4-1 vs MIL this season (5 games).
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 4.4 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 3.2 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.26 (elite)ERA 1.372d stress Fresh (3.7 IP/2g)
PIT
xERA 5.17 (below avg)ERA 6.022d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
83°F, Overcast, Wind 1 mph NNW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- MIL — Shane Drohan: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.17 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- MIL bullpen fresh (3.7 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
NYY @ WSN4:05 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
NYY @ WSNMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Cam Schlittler R
xERA3.33 (good)K%30.1 (elite)HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%14.9 (below avg)ERA3.71IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs69BB%4.1
WSN vs RHP
wRC+162 (elite)K%17.0 (above avg)HH%42.8 (above avg)
PJ Poulin
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYY
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY+172+1.5 (-123)O9.5 (-109)WSN-180-1.5 (+115)U9.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-220-0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-132)WSN+172+0.5 (+116)U4.5 (+102)
Team Totals
OverUnderNYYO5.5 (+110)U5.5 (-135)WSNO3.5 (-110)U3.5 (-113)
Pitcher Props
K O/UCam Schlittler5.5 (-132 / +111)PJ Poulin—
Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@ L1.02012022
L1.02012022Jul 6@ 
W8.010184011
W8.010184011Jun 30vs 
L4.08557166
L4.08557166Jun 25@ L5.09295204
L5.09295204Jun 19vs 
W6.096134000
W6.096134000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cam Schlittler
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN3.52.574.53.01.5(2)
at WSN1.018.001.02.00.0(1)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 4-1 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 3.8 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 6.2 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 2.79 (elite)ERA 2.172d stress Elevated (10.7 IP/2g)
WSN
xERA 4.42 (avg)ERA 5.262d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph NW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- WSN — PJ Poulin: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- NYY bullpen elevated (10.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WSN bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: 2026-06-30: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
BOS @ 
NYM4:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
BOS @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Eduardo Rivera L
xERA1.53 (elite)K%30.0 (elite)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA0.00IP/gs3.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs30BB%0.0
NYM vs LHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
Freddy Peralta R
xERA2.97 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%2.1 (elite)ERA3.77IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs79BB%7.2
BOS vs RHP
wRC+90 (below avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%37.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS+165+1.5 (-135)O6.5 (-125)NYM-205-1.5 (+118)U6.5 (+102)
Team Totals
OverUnderBOSO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+100)NYMO4.5 (-105)U4.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEduardo Rivera——Freddy Peralta5.5 (-136 / +110)17.5 (-119 / -105)
Eduardo Rivera · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@ L1.01800100
L1.01800100Apr 22vs L3.1*4131000
L3.1*4131000Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11vs L2.04351200
L2.04351200Jul 6@ 
W4.210366113
W4.210366113Jul 1@ 
L4.09147355
L4.09147355Jun 25vs 
L5.29855103
L5.29855103Jun 20@ L2.28021011010
L2.28021011010SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eduardo Rivera
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM1.00.000.00.01.0(1)
at NYM1.00.000.00.01.0(1)
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS3.53.865.53.52.5(2)
home starts4.10.744.03.31.3(3)
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS have won 7 straight.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 2-3 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 3-2 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 4.8 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 5.4 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 2.80 (elite)ERA 3.592d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
NYM
xERA 5.07 (below avg)ERA 8.882d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
81°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph NE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- BOS — Eduardo Rivera: small sample (3.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- NYM bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.07 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- BOS — Eduardo Rivera: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-04-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- NYM — Freddy Peralta: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- NYM — Freddy Peralta: 2026-07-01: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
CLE @ MIA4:10 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
CLE @ MIAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tanner Bibee R
xERA5.01 (below avg)K%9.1 (poor)HH%29.8 (elite)Barrel%8.8 (avg)ERA4.24IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs58BB%3.0
MIA vs RHP
wRC+176 (elite)K%16.4 (above avg)HH%40.4 (above avg)
Eury Perez R
xERA1.44 (elite)K%29.3 (elite)HH%25.0 (elite)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA1.06IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs1.7PC/gs70BB%6.9
CLE vs RHP
wRC+100 (avg)K%25.9 (below avg)HH%39.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+144+1.5 (-168)O6.5 (-113)MIA-178-1.5 (+132)U6.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE+122+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (+106)MIA-152-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
OverUnderCLEO3.5 (-110)U3.5 (-113)MIAO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTanner Bibee4.5 (-128 / +107)17.5 (-136 / +102)Eury Perez6.5 (-103 / -118)16.5 (-114 / -117)
Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@ L1.02011100
L1.02011100Jul 5vs L4.06216166
L4.06216166Jun 30vs L7.09125023
L7.09125023Jun 24@ W6.08933100
W6.08933100Jun 19@ L5.19574234
L5.19574234Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11vs L1.23133100
L1.23133100Jul 5@ W7.09280000
W7.09280000Jun 30@ W5.18682411
W5.18682411Jun 24vs W4.26813011
W4.26813011May 27@ L4.07393000
L4.07393000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA3.12.903.03.02.5(2)
at MIA1.00.001.01.01.0(1)
Eury Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE3.15.815.53.00.5(2)
home starts3.81.573.02.70.3(3)
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 2-3 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 4-1 in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-2 in Eury Perez's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 6.0 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 4.0 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 3.83 (avg)ERA 2.682d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
MIA
xERA 3.79 (avg)ERA 6.812d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: last start: 62 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: 2026-07-05: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIA — Eury Perez: low-K outing 2026-06-24 (1 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day
SEA @ TBR✓4:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
SEA @ TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Logan Gilbert R
xERA1.94 (elite)K%30.1 (elite)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%2.0 (elite)ERA2.18IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs65BB%2.7
TBR vs RHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%19.9 (above avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Griffin Jax R
xERA3.87 (avg)K%34.4 (elite)HH%48.6 (poor)Barrel%13.5 (below avg)ERA3.38IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs55BB%6.2
SEA vs RHP
wRC+90 (below avg)K%25.8 (below avg)HH%35.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+119+1.5 (-190)O8.0 (-105)TBR-130-1.5 (+168)U7.5 (-104)
Logan Gilbert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@ L0.0*000000
L0.0*000000Jul 4vs W7.19171000
W7.19171000Jun 27@ L7.010377044
L7.010377044Jun 21vs W6.19483211
W6.19483211Jun 16vs W7.094102111
W7.094102111Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11vs L0.11201100
L0.11201100Jul 6vs L5.081101233
L5.081101233Jun 30@ 
W6.07155033
W6.07155033Jun 24vs W5.08875202
W5.08875202Jun 19vs W5.06954022
W5.06954022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Griffin Jax
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA0.10.000.01.01.0(1)
home starts3.42.675.72.31.7(3)
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA have lost 4 straight.
- SEA are 4-1 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 3-2 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 5.2 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 4.2 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-2 in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 4.8 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.18 (avg)ERA 3.862d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 3.33 (good)ERA 3.672d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Dome
Dome
Flags · 3
- TBR — Griffin Jax: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TBR — Griffin Jax: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- TBR bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
SEA @ TBR u7.5 (-118)
Logan Gilbert is one of the best pitchers in baseball (xERA 1.94, recent ERA 1.41, K% 30.1%) and is squarely locked in his best recent form (6.1, 7.0, 6.0 IP with only 3 ER combined in last 3). SEA offense is below average vs RHP at wRC+ 90 with K% 25.8% — vulnerable to Jax. Griffin Jax is also hot (recent ERA 1.20, averaging 5.7 K/start in last 3). Both pitchers have been excellent recently. The SEA and TBR bullpens are both in the 3.75-3.80 xERA range — solid enough to protect a low-run game through 9. TBR offense at wRC+ 118 L12 is the main concern, but that's neutralized by Gilbert's elite form. The total of 7.5 with two hot starters and decent pens is well worth the under.
Logan Gilbert o6.5 Ks (+134)
Gilbert averages 7.7 K/start in last 3 (8K, 10K, 5K) vs BOS and BAL — both moderate K% opponents. TBR L12 K% is 19.9%, which is actually slightly below average — a modest downward calibration brings adjusted expectation to roughly 7.0-7.5 Ks, still well above the 6.5 line. Gilbert's season K% is 30.1% (elite), his xERA is 1.94 (best in this slate), and the TBR bullpen flag (stressed, manager leans starter in longer) supports a 6+ inning outing. The Outs O/U 18.5 line at +125 (no strong edge there) doesn't cap him. At +134, this is outstanding plus-money value for the best pitcher on the board.
PHI @ DET✓6:10 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
PHI @ DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
C. Sanchez L
xERA4.06 (avg)K%22.2 (avg)HH%51.0 (poor)Barrel%11.8 (below avg)ERA8.22IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs89BB%5.6
DET vs LHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Casey Mize R
xERA2.69 (elite)K%27.0 (good)HH%31.4 (good)Barrel%3.9 (elite)ERA2.79IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs93BB%4.0
PHI vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%42.5 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-104-1.5 (+180)O7.5 (+100)DET-105+1.5 (-195)U7.0 (-104)
C. Sanchez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 6@ L3.183112199
L3.183112199Jun 30vs W7.09293200
W7.09293200Jun 25@ W5.09267155
W5.09267155Jun 20vs W6.09155111
W6.09155111Jun 14@ L5.29838144
L5.29838144Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ W6.29445222
W6.29445222Jun 29@ W7.088101000
W7.088101000Jun 23vs L5.29768144
L5.29768144Jun 17@ L4.28636133
L4.28636133May 27vs W4.05862100
W4.05862100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
C. Sanchez
IPERAKHBB
vs DET8.00.006.05.01.0(1)
at DET—
Casey Mize
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI—
home starts5.13.515.34.70.7(3)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in C. Sanchez's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 6.8 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 3.8 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- DET have won 6 straight.
- DET are 3-2 in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Casey Mize's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 4.4 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- DET average 2.8 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 4.54 (below avg)ERA 8.262d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
DET
xERA 3.23 (good)ERA 4.382d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph ENE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- PHI — C. Sanchez: HH% 51% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PHI — C. Sanchez: 2026-07-06: 9 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 26) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- PHI — C. Sanchez: low-K outing 2026-07-06 (1 Ks vs avg 5.3) — stuff was flat that day
- DET — Casey Mize: recent opponents high-K: NYY 31%, NYY 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
DET Team Total o3.5 (+122)
C. Sanchez has a xERA 4.06 but ERA 8.22 with HH% 51% and recent ERA 5.56. DET offense is wRC+ 129 vs LHP (strong) in L12 — one of the hotter offensive splits on the board today. PHI bullpen is atrocious (xERA 4.54, ERA 8.26). DET scored enough in Casey Mize's home starts (3.51 ERA at home) to offset any pitcher concerns. The +122 price offers genuine value — the market seems too focused on Mize struggling recently while underweighting that DET hits LHP well and PHI's pen is terrible. DET averaging 2.8 RS in Mize's home starts is low, but facing Sanchez (high contact, big ERA) plus a terrible PHI pen, 3.5+ runs is very achievable.
KCR @ BAL✓7:05 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
KCR @ BAL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Noah Cameron L
xERA6.49 (poor)K%16.2 (below avg)HH%36.0 (avg)Barrel%12.0 (below avg)ERA7.90IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs100BB%14.9
BAL vs LHP
wRC+93 (below avg)K%23.9 (avg)HH%40.3 (above avg)
Kyle Bradish R
xERA2.68 (elite)K%20.5 (avg)HH%30.9 (good)Barrel%3.6 (elite)ERA2.75IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs97BB%9.0
KCR vs RHP
wRC+103 (avg)K%24.6 (below avg)HH%43.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+126+1.5 (-165)O9.5 (-105)BAL-136-1.5 (+144)U9.5 (-114)
Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 6vs W5.010576511
W5.010576511Jun 30vs L3.28609366
L3.28609366Jun 24@ L5.010858355
L5.010858355Jun 18vs 
W5.010868234
W5.010868234Jun 13vs L4.18617044
L4.18617044Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ L7.210655133
L7.210655133Jun 28vs L4.08521534
L4.08521534Jun 22@ W8.010196100
W8.010196100Jun 17@ W7.2100125211
W7.2100125211Jun 11vs W4.08557355
W4.08557355SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Bradish
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.11.767.010.03.0(1)
home starts5.04.803.74.03.7(3)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 1-3 vs BAL this season (4 games).
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Noah Cameron's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 8.6 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 3.4 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 3-1 vs KCR this season (4 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 7.2 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.62 (below avg)ERA 3.602d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
BAL
xERA 2.62 (elite)ERA 3.462d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph NE
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- KCR — Noah Cameron: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- KCR — Noah Cameron: last start: 105 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- KCR — Noah Cameron: recent opponents low-K: TBR 18%, TBR 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: low-K outing 2026-06-28 (2 Ks vs avg 5.3) — stuff was flat that day
KCR Team Total u3.5 (+110)
Bradish is elite (xERA 2.68, recent ERA 2.81, averaging 8.7 K/start in L3) with a strong home park and bullpen support (BAL bullpen xERA 2.61). KCR offense is average at wRC+ 103 but K% is 24.6% — above average swing-and-miss for Bradish to exploit. KCR in pitcher's recent starts averages only 3.4 RS away and is 1-4 on the road in last 5. Cameron's own struggles are irrelevant here — this is purely Bradish limiting KCR's run output. At +110, getting paid to take KCR under 3.5 against an elite pitcher with a dominant bullpen behind him is positive EV.
Kyle Bradish o5.5 Ks (+115)
Bradish averages 8.7 K/start in last 3, including 9K and 12K outings, vs LAA and SEA — both above-average K% lineups similar to or better than KCR's 24.6%. The KCR flag notes 'recent opponents low-K' for Cameron, not Bradish, so there's no negative calibration needed for Bradish. His season K% is 20.5% with an elite xERA 2.68. The Outs O/U at 17.5 with juice on the under (-147) signals the market expects ~6 IP, giving Bradish enough innings to accumulate Ks. Adjusted expectation of ~7-8 Ks well exceeds the 5.5 line. At +115, this is clear plus-money value.
BAL Team Total o4.5 (-113)
Noah Cameron is a disaster: xERA 6.49 (poor), recent ERA 7.66, ERA 7.90, BB% 14.9%, flagged for high pitch count last start (105 pitches). He has no history at Camden Yards and struggles vs virtually every lineup. BAL is 4-1 at home in Bradish's recent starts averaging 7.2 RS, and the park (APF 106) favors offense. KCR bullpen xERA is 4.62 — mediocre. Even if Cameron exits early, the KCR pen doesn't project to shut down BAL. Multiple signals (terrible starter, good home offense, hitter-friendly park, strong bullpen support from BAL side) strongly support BAL scoring 5+.
HOU @ TEX✓7:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
HOU @ TEX✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Peter Lambert R
xERA3.22 (good)K%23.2 (good)HH%34.8 (good)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA3.38IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs94BB%10.1
TEX vs RHP
wRC+78 (poor)K%21.8 (avg)HH%39.4 (avg)
Kumar Rocker R
xERA2.39 (elite)K%30.0 (elite)HH%32.5 (good)Barrel%5.0 (elite)ERA2.93IP/gs7.7 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs84BB%3.3
HOU vs RHP
wRC+115 (above avg)K%22.5 (avg)HH%35.6 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+100-1.5 (+158)O9.0 (-101)TEX-112+1.5 (-190)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU-110+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-120)TEX-114-0.5 (+118)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UHOUO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)TEXO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPeter Lambert4.5 (-115 / -104)17.5 (-110 / +102)Kumar Rocker4.5 (+118 / -138)15.5 (-120 / -108)
Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs W5.29063100
W5.29063100Jun 29vs L5.210045344
L5.210045344Jun 23@ W4.29266322
W4.29266322Jun 17vs W7.08952011
W7.08952011Jun 10@ L6.19165022
L6.19165022Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs L4.18545133
L4.18545133Jun 28@ W6.09254100
W6.09254100Jun 22@ W5.0*7695022
W5.0*7695022Jun 16vs L3.17047267
L3.17047267Jun 11@ W4.28335222
W4.28335222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX6.07.506.03.02.0(1)
at TEX—
Kumar Rocker
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.07.205.04.02.0(1)
home starts4.18.114.36.01.3(3)
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 5-3 vs TEX this season (8 games).
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 away starts.
- HOU average 4.2 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 4.8 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 3-5 vs HOU this season (8 games).
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 3-2 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 3.0 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.0 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 2.63 (elite)ERA 2.842d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 4.08 (avg)ERA 5.102d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- HOU bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: 2026-06-16: 6 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
HOU ML (+100)
Kumar Rocker is acutely struggling (recent ERA 9.86 despite elite xERA 2.39 — a 7+ run gap between recent ERA and xERA, flagged as STRUGGLING). Recent bullpen appearance, home ERA 8.11 in 3 starts, and 1 prior start vs HOU at 7.20 ERA. TEX offense is poor at wRC+ 78 vs RHP. HOU's bullpen is elite (xERA 2.41, ERA 2.01), the best pen on today's slate. Peter Lambert is in solid form (recent ERA 2.60, xERA 3.22) and HOU offense is above average at wRC+ 115. Getting HOU at even money (+100) against a struggling Rocker with an elite bullpen behind Lambert is strong value — the market sets TEX as a slight favorite based on home field, but the pitching matchup strongly favors HOU.
Kumar Rocker u4.5 Ks (-138)
Rocker is averaging only 3.5 K/start in his last 3 outings despite an elite K% season average. He's been pulled early in recent starts (Outs line at 15.5 implies ~5.2 IP expected), limiting K accumulation. HOU's K% vs RHP is 22.5% — average, not strikeout-prone. Adjusted expectation sits around 3.5–4.0 Ks, comfortably below 4.5. The -138 is steep but the edge is clear given his acute struggles.
CHC @ CIN✓7:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
CHC @ CIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Javier Assad R
xERA5.84 (poor)K%15.4 (below avg)HH%57.9 (poor)Barrel%13.2 (below avg)ERA5.11IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs72BB%11.5
CIN vs RHP
wRC+79 (poor)K%27.5 (below avg)HH%31.1 (below avg)
Nick Lodolo L
xERA3.86 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%7.9 (good)ERA0.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs89BB%11.5
CHC vs LHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-126-1.5 (+129)O9.5 (-110)CIN+109+1.5 (-152)U9.0 (-104)
Javier Assad · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs W4.28022200
W4.28022200Jun 30vs 
W2.2*5315244
W2.2*5315244Jun 24@ W5.08355233
W5.08355233Jun 17vs W5.29215022
W5.29215022Jun 12@ W6.08553100
W6.08553100Nick Lodolo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs W6.09746211
W6.09746211Jun 29@ L5.09641400
L5.09641400Jun 23vs L4.07562100
L4.07562100Jun 17vs L4.290211277
L4.290211277Jun 12vs L5.19655122
L5.19655122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Javier Assad
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.04.502.03.02.0(1)
at CIN4.04.502.03.02.0(1)
Nick Lodolo
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC3.83.164.34.71.3(3)
home starts4.75.074.06.31.7(3)
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 4-1 vs CIN this season (5 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 4-1 in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-2 in Javier Assad's last 5 away starts.
- CHC average 5.8 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 6.2 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 1-4 vs CHC this season (5 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 1-4 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-3 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 1.8 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 2.4 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.75 (below avg)ERA 5.362d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
CIN
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 3.662d stress Fresh (3.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph NE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- CHC — Javier Assad: HH% 58% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHC — Javier Assad: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CIN bullpen fresh (3.7 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CHC — Javier Assad: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-30, 2026-06-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — Javier Assad: recent opponents low-K: COL 19%, NYM 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- CIN — Nick Lodolo: recent opponents low-K: MIL 15%, MIL 15% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
CHC Team Total o4.5 (-136)
CHC offense is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 139 in L12 — among the highest on the board today). Nick Lodolo is struggling (recent ERA 6.09, 7ER in his recent disastrous start). His home ERA is 5.07 and he's given up 4+ ER in 2 of 3 recent starts. CIN bullpen xERA 3.74 is decent but the offense is CHC's edge regardless. CHC averaging 6.2 RS in away starts. The -136 juice is steep but the edge is clear: elite L12 offense vs a struggling starter who has historically allowed runs at this park. CHC scoring 5+ is a high-probability outcome.
ATL @ STL7:15 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
ATL @ STLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Reynaldo Lopez R
xERA3.45 (good)K%24.0 (good)HH%31.4 (good)Barrel%8.6 (avg)ERA2.08IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs69BB%6.0
STL vs RHP
wRC+74 (poor)K%21.5 (avg)HH%42.4 (above avg)
M. Liberatore L
xERA3.64 (good)K%21.4 (avg)HH%23.3 (elite)Barrel%7.0 (good)ERA5.87IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs91BB%11.4
ATL vs LHP
wRC+66 (poor)K%22.1 (avg)HH%42.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL+113+1.5 (-199)O8.5 (-104)STL-130-1.5 (+168)U8.5 (-110)
Reynaldo Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 6vs L5.08053211
L5.08053211Jul 1vs W5.06962111
W5.06962111Jun 26@ W3.05714011
W3.05714011Jun 21vs L3.0*5831101
L3.0*5831101Jun 16vs L2.0*3011000
L2.0*3011000M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ L5.07834234
L5.07834234Jun 30@ W5.09891411
W5.09891411Jun 24vs L5.19838266
L5.19838266Jun 18@ L1.24827057
L1.24827057Jun 13@ W4.17045144
W4.17045144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Reynaldo Lopez
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.01.806.02.01.0(1)
at STL—
M. Liberatore
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL4.07.884.55.02.5(2)
home starts4.85.663.75.02.0(3)
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 1-3 vs STL this season (4 games).
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 3-2 in Reynaldo Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-1 in Reynaldo Lopez's last 4 away starts.
- ATL average 4.8 runs/game in Reynaldo Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 7.8 runs/game in Reynaldo Lopez's last 4 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 3-1 vs ATL this season (4 games).
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 4-1 in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 5.6 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL average 6.2 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 5.222d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
STL
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 3.882d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph N
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- ATL bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATL — Reynaldo Lopez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-21, 2026-06-16 — may affect pitch count or availability
- STL — M. Liberatore: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- STL — M. Liberatore: 2026-06-24: 6 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- STL — M. Liberatore: high-K outing 2026-06-30 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
AI Analysis
Both offenses are poor (ATL wRC+ 66 vs LHP, STL wRC+ 74 vs RHP) and both starters have issues — Lopez is pitching very short outings (2-3 IP) as a bulk/opener hybrid with very low K rates recently, making any pitcher prop unreliable; Liberatore is struggling (recent ERA 12.98) but both teams' cold bats and elevated bullpen flags create too much uncertainty for a clean directional bet.
TOR @ SDP✓8:40 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
TOR @ SDP✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Trey Yesavage R
xERA3.23 (good)K%20.3 (avg)HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)ERA1.96IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs98BB%9.5
SDP vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)HH%34.2 (below avg)
Walker Buehler R
xERA3.92 (avg)K%22.4 (avg)HH%41.9 (below avg)Barrel%18.6 (poor)ERA10.67IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs84BB%11.9
TOR vs RHP
wRC+61 (poor)K%21.0 (avg)HH%30.2 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-126-1.5 (+139)O8.5 (+100)SDP+108+1.5 (-164)U8.5 (-118)
Trey Yesavage · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ L6.09673223
L6.09673223Jun 29vs W6.29433011
W6.29433011Jun 24vs L5.210552511
L5.210552511Jun 18@ W7.19564033
W7.19564033Jun 12vs W5.08134655
W5.08134655Walker Buehler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 6vs L5.09347177
L5.09347177Jul 1@ L4.08567499
L4.08567499Jun 26vs W5.17453311
W5.17453311Jun 20@ W5.18775111
W5.18775111Jun 14@ W5.08656011
W5.08656011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Walker Buehler
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.04.465.04.02.0(2)
home starts4.85.664.36.02.0(3)
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-3 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.
- TOR average 3.0 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 2.6 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 3-2 in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 3-2 in Walker Buehler's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 4.2 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 4.0 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.01 (good)ERA 3.832d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 3.53 (good)ERA 6.702d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- SDP — Walker Buehler: Barrel% 19% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- TOR bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TOR @ SDP u8.5 (-118)
Walker Buehler is on a genuine hot streak (recent ERA 1.78 over 3 starts, 5.7 K/avg) despite a misleading 10.67 season ERA — a clear case where recent form far outpaces season ERA, meaning the market may be overpricing runs. TOR offense is one of today's coldest lineups (wRC+ 61 in L12, poor). Trey Yesavage's season ERA 1.96 vs xERA 3.23 suggests some luck, but his K% is solid and TOR makes weak contact (HH% 30.2%). Petco Park suppresses offense (APF 98). Both bullpens are functional. The 8.5 total accounts for Buehler's inflated ERA, but with his hot recent form + cold TOR offense, under is the play.
ARI @ LAD✓9:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
ARI @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Brandon Pfaadt R
xERA2.49 (elite)K%19.1 (avg)HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%8.8 (avg)ERA2.38IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs58BB%6.4
LAD vs RHP
wRC+106 (avg)K%17.4 (above avg)HH%36.6 (avg)
Y. Yamamoto R
xERA2.86 (elite)K%26.7 (good)HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%4.1 (elite)ERA2.37IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs97BB%8.0
ARI vs RHP
wRC+70 (poor)K%20.2 (avg)HH%33.1 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+172+1.5 (-118)O9.5 (-110)LAD-199-1.5 (+102)U9.5 (-106)
Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 6@ W5.07264000
W5.07264000Jun 30vs W5.16623111
W5.16623111Jun 3vs L1.0*3713222
L1.0*3713222May 29@ L1.2*3133011
L1.2*3133011May 23vs W1.2*2302011
W1.2*2302011Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4vs W7.0100103200
W7.0100103200Jun 27@ W6.08945222
W6.08945222Jun 20vs L6.010266233
L6.010266233Jun 13@ W8.110971011
W8.110971011Jun 6vs W8.09342011
W8.09342011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Pfaadt
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD5.06.244.56.01.5(2)
at LAD5.06.242.55.51.0(2)
Y. Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI6.31.427.74.30.7(3)
home starts7.01.716.73.71.3(3)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 3-5 vs LAD this season (8 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 2 away starts.
- ARI average 6.4 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 5.5 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 2 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 5-3 vs ARI this season (8 games).
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 4-1 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-2 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 7.2 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 5.0 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.06 (good)ERA 3.122d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
LAD
xERA 3.15 (good)ERA 3.862d stress Stressed (7.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
78°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph S
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- LAD bullpen stressed (7.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-03, 2026-05-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: last start: 72 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
ARI @ LAD F5 u4.5 (+106)
Yamamoto is elite (xERA 2.86, recent ERA 2.04) with dominant ARI history (1.42 ERA in 3 gs vs ARI, 7.7 K/gs). ARI offense is cold at wRC+ 70 vs RHP L12. Pfaadt's flags are severe: 3 straight abbreviated outings (1.0, 1.2, 1.2 IP), recent bullpen appearances, and 72-pitch last start suggesting an injury concern or strict early hook — meaning ARI's run production in the first 5 almost entirely falls on Yamamoto's dominance against a cold lineup. LAD offense is average at wRC+ 106. The F5 market prices this at +106 for the under, offering positive value. Both teams figure to combine for under 4.5 in first 5 innings with Yamamoto dealing and Pfaadt likely capped around 2 IP again.
Y. Yamamoto o6.5 Ks (+127)
Yamamoto averages 5.7 K/start in recent 3, but those came vs BAL, CHW, and LAA — none particularly high-K lineups. ARI L12 K% is 20.2%, roughly in line with league average, meaning no downward calibration is needed. Yamamoto's season K% is 26.7%, his xERA is elite at 2.86, and his ARI matchup history shows 7.7 K/gs in 3 starts. The bullpen flag (LAD stressed, manager leans starter in longer) supports Yamamoto going deep. The Outs O/U 18.5 line confirms market expects 6+ innings. At +127, adjusted expectation of ~7+ Ks comfortably exceeds the 6.5 line by more than 0.5 — strong over signal at plus money.
LAD F5 ML -270 (-270)
Yamamoto is dominant: elite xERA 2.86, recent ERA 2.04, 1.42 ERA vs ARI in 3 career starts, 1.71 ERA at home. ARI's offense is ice cold (wRC+ 70 vs RHP) and Pfaadt is a massive concern — only 1.0–1.2 IP per start in his last 3 outings (37, 31, 23 pitches), clearly coming out of a bullpen role and flagged for possible injury. The ARI offense is being handed to the bullpen almost immediately. Yamamoto going deep vs a weak ARI offense is as reliable a F5 edge as exists today.
ARI Team Total u3.5 (-135)
Yamamoto has a 1.42 ERA vs ARI in 3 career starts with 7.7 K/gs. His recent ERA is 2.04 — sharp right now. ARI offense is wRC+ 70 vs RHP in L12 (very cold), and their starter Pfaadt is essentially coming out of the bullpen (max 1.2 IP in each of his last 3 starts), meaning ARI's bullpen faces Yamamoto's lineup from inning 1–2. LAD bullpen is also solid (xERA 3.15). The combination of an elite, historically dominant starter vs a cold offense that will need heavy bullpen usage makes 3.5 an achievable cap for ARI runs.