AI Picks · 13 Bets · Aug 23
MIL Team Total o3.5 (-122)
MIL sits at 165 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6, up sharply from 108 over its last 12, with a 55.3% hard-hit rate over the last 6 — a lineup crushing the ball right now. Tyler Mahle carries a 4.29 xERA over his last 3 with a 44.7% hard-hit rate allowed, and his 1.45 ERA over that stretch is pure sequencing luck he isn't earning. The market is pricing Mahle's shiny ERA rather than the contact he's giving up, undervaluing a hot MIL offense at plus-money-adjacent odds.
Found at 10:16 AM ET
MIL ML (-112)
Milwaukee's offense is red hot at 165 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6, up from 108 over its last 12, with a 55.3% hard-hit rate that lines up perfectly against Tyler Mahle, whose 4.29 xERA over his last 3 badly undercuts his shiny 1.45 ERA and who allows a 44.7% hard-hit rate himself. MIL also owns the far better relief unit at 2.75 bullpen xERA versus 3.31 for ATL, and ATL's lineup is buried at 43 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 against a wild-but-live Drohan; a near-pickem price on the hotter, deeper club facing a pitcher due for negative regression is the mispricing.
Found at 4:20 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
BAL ML (+101)
Baz carries a 2.35 xERA over his last 3 and has smothered Tampa across their last 2 meetings (1.38 ERA, one earned run in each of 6 and 7 innings), while TBR's bat has cooled to a 101 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 from 134 over their last 12. The market is pricing Baz's shiny 5.19 ERA over his last 3 — a figure dragged up by a single 3-inning, 5-run blowup — rather than his underlying dominance, leaving the home side available at plus money in a spot he should be favored.
Found at 4:00 AM ET
Shane Baz o4.5 Ks (-126)
Baz owns a 29.2 K% over his last 3 with a 27.3 Whiff% behind it, and he has punched out 6 and 9 in his last two looks at Tampa. TBR's K% has climbed to 19.7 over their last 6 vs RHP from 14.1 over their last 12, so the contact profile the market is leaning on has eroded, making 4.5 a soft number for an arm averaging 7 strikeouts a start.
Found at 4:00 AM ET
Janson Junk u3.5 Ks (-139)
Junk carries an extreme 8.5% K rate and 6.8% whiff over his last 3, striking out just 1, 2, and 2 batters for a 1.7 K/start average. WSN makes contact at a 22.2% K rate vs RHP over its last 6, offering no boost to his bat-missing. Even at this price a pitcher averaging under two strikeouts a start is a strong under against a number more than double his output.
Found at 10:16 AM ET
KCR Team Total o4.5 (+114)
Kansas City is mashing right-handed pitching at a 138 wRC+ over their last 6, up from 105 over their last 12, and they draw Madden, who has thrown just 4.2 innings across 3 starts, sits 83 days removed from his last outing, and topped out at 48 pitches — he will not go deep. That funnels the game to Detroit's bullpen early, and a heater of a lineup facing a starter who cannot cover innings is worth more than the plus-money price on 4.5.
Found at 4:00 AM ET
Yusei Kikuchi u14.5 Outs (+124)
Kikuchi is making his first start in 116 days and threw only 35 pitches in his last outing, so he is not stretched out to cover the 4.83 innings this line demands. TEX has hit him for an 8.30 ERA across their last 3 meetings and sits at 110 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 (up from 85 over its last 12), a lineup positioned to run his pitch count up early. The market is pricing his elite 2.81 xERA and ignoring that his physical workload ceiling caps the outing well short of this number.
Found at 10:16 AM ET
TEX -1.5 (+134)
Quantrill has been dominant over his last 3 with a 2.49 xERA, 6.5 IP/gs, and a 2.22 ERA across 2 meetings vs LAA, who bring just an 83 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6. TEX meanwhile has tagged Kikuchi for an 8.30 ERA over their last 3 meetings and is heating up at 110 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6, with a bounce-back angle after being shut out last time out. At plus money the run line pays for TEX winning comfortably, an edge the near-even ML doesn't offer.
Found at 10:16 AM ET
Jake Bennett o4.5 Ks (-118)
San Francisco is striking out at a 34.6% clip over their last 6 vs LHP with a 30.4% Whiff% underneath it, both consistent with their last-12 marks, and Bennett brings a 22.4 K% and 24.6 Whiff% over his last 3. He has posted 4, 5, and 6 punchouts recently facing lesser whiff lineups, and the number sits at 4.5 against one of the most strikeout-prone offenses on the board.
Found at 4:00 AM ET
Shota Imanaga o5.5 Ks (-109)
Imanaga has a 30.9 K% and 31.6 Whiff% over his last 3 with 6, 5, and 10 strikeouts, and Seattle carries a 24.8 K% and 24.3 Whiff% over their last 6 vs LHP against a 79 wRC+ that cannot square him up. His 17.5-out line gives him the length to clear the number, and the market is discounting his bat-missing form against a lineup built to chase.
Found at 4:00 AM ET
PIT Team Total u2.5 (+114)
Snell has a 2.13 xERA with a 36.6 Whiff% and a 10.8 HH% over his last 3, and Pittsburgh's bat has cooled to an 88 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 with a 25.3 K%. He suppresses hard contact as well as anyone, Los Angeles' bullpen backs him with a 2.51 xERA, and the plus-money price on the Pirates staying under 2.5 undervalues how dominant this matchup is against a cold lineup.
Found at 4:00 AM ET
SDP Team Total o4.5 (+104)
Ober has a 5.38 xERA over his last 3 with a bloated 49.1 HH% and an 11.6 K% that won't bail him out, and San Diego is hitting at a 113 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a low 17.6 K%. At home where they've gone 9-1 over their last 10, a contact-heavy lineup against a starter surrendering that much hard contact should clear 4.5, and the market is offering it at plus money.
Found at 4:00 AM ET
CIN Team Total u3.5 (+110)
CIN's bats sit at just 68 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 74 over their last 12 with a 30.4% K rate over the last 6, a consistently poor and whiff-heavy profile now facing Mitch Bratt, whose 2.77 xERA and 2.81 ERA over his last 3 agree that his run prevention is genuine and who owns a 2.09 ERA across his last 3 home starts at 5.7 IP/gs. A frozen offense against an established elite arm should sit at 2-3 runs, but the market is pricing this at a coin flip and paying plus money for the under.
Found at 4:20 PM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
TBR @ 
BAL✓1:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
TBR @ BAL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Nick Martinez R
xERA3.55 (good)ERA4.91 (below)K%18.2 (avg)Whiff%14.3 (below)
More Stats
HH%36.1 (avg)Barrel%6.6 (good)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs90BB%2.6 (elite)
BAL vs RHP
L6
wRC+118 (above)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%26.4 (below)HH%42.0 (above)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%24.7 (avg)HH%45.2 (elite)
Shane Baz R
xERA2.35 (elite)ERA5.19 (below)K%29.2 (elite)Whiff%27.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%48.9 (poor)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs88BB%5.6 (good)
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+105 (avg)K%16.8 (above)Whiff%20.1 (above)HH%32.1 (below)
L12
wRC+132 (elite)K%14.2 (elite)Whiff%17.5 (elite)HH%33.6 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 4.34 (avg)ERA 5.89 (poor)2d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 3.02 (good)ERA 4.04 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-6000-2.5 (-440)O3.5 (+322)BAL+5000+2.5 (+328)U3.5 (-425)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR+102+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-128)BAL-125-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR4.5 (-102/-120)2.5 (+124/-160)BAL4.5 (+110/-140)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNick Martinez3.5 (-124 / +104)16.5 (-118 / -109)Shane Baz4.5 (+108 / -128)17.5 (-138 / +115)
Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ W6.08641000
W6.08641000Aug 18vs 
L3.28259266
L3.28259266Aug 11@ 
W9.010158044
W9.010158044Aug 5@ 
W5.27546000
W5.27546000Jul 31vs 
L6.07727066
L6.07727066Shane Baz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L5.29635333
L5.29635333Aug 18vs 
L6.1104104233
L6.1104104233Aug 12@ 
L3.06529155
L3.06529155Aug 7@ 
L8.09393122
L8.09393122Aug 1vs 
L6.19946111
L6.19946111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL6.00.00elite4.01.00.0(1)
at BAL6.00.00elite4.01.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ W6.08641000
W6.08641000Shane Baz
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR6.12.47elite6.04.72.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L5.29635333
L5.29635333May 26vs W7.09997211
W7.09997211May 20@ L6.09462311
L6.09462311home starts5.83.62good5.75.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L5.29635333
L5.29635333Aug 18vs L6.1104104233
L6.1104104233Aug 1vs L6.19946111
L6.19946111Trends · TBR
- TBR are 4-8 vs BAL this season (12 games).
- TBR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 3-2 in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 4-1 in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 5.0 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 5.8 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-3 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 2-1 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 8-4 vs TBR this season (12 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 0-5 in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-4 in Shane Baz's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 1.8 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 2.6 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 0-5 to the over in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 0-3 to the over in Shane Baz's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 9 mph W
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
- TBR bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- BAL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TBR — Nick Martinez: 2026-08-18: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TBR — Nick Martinez: recent opponents low-K: ATH 16%, TOR 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- BAL — Shane Baz: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- BAL — Shane Baz: 2026-08-12: 5 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- BAL — Shane Baz: low-K outing 2026-08-12 (2 Ks vs avg 7.0) — stuff was flat that day
- BAL — Shane Baz: recent opponents high-K: TEX 31%, NYY 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
BAL ML (+101)
Baz carries a 2.35 xERA over his last 3 and has smothered Tampa across their last 2 meetings (1.38 ERA, one earned run in each of 6 and 7 innings), while TBR's bat has cooled to a 101 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 from 134 over their last 12. The market is pricing Baz's shiny 5.19 ERA over his last 3 — a figure dragged up by a single 3-inning, 5-run blowup — rather than his underlying dominance, leaving the home side available at plus money in a spot he should be favored.
Shane Baz o4.5 Ks (-126)
Baz owns a 29.2 K% over his last 3 with a 27.3 Whiff% behind it, and he has punched out 6 and 9 in his last two looks at Tampa. TBR's K% has climbed to 19.7 over their last 6 vs RHP from 14.1 over their last 12, so the contact profile the market is leaning on has eroded, making 4.5 a soft number for an arm averaging 7 strikeouts a start.
TOR @ NYY1:35 PM · Yankee StadiumHitter Friendly
TOR @ NYYMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jose Soriano R
xERA5.06 (below)ERA2.76 (elite)K%13.4 (below)Whiff%26.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%5.8 (good)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs94BB%7.5 (avg)
NYY vs RHP
L6
wRC+87 (below)K%31.3 (poor)Whiff%26.9 (below)HH%41.7 (above)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%28.2 (poor)Whiff%24.9 (avg)HH%46.1 (elite)
Carlos Rodon L
xERA3.73 (good)ERA2.51 (elite)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%33.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%32.4 (good)Barrel%8.1 (avg)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs79BB%13.3 (poor)
TOR vs LHP
L6
wRC+151 (elite)K%20.7 (avg)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%25.0 (poor)
L12
wRC+115 (above)K%16.9 (above)Whiff%17.0 (elite)HH%20.6 (poor)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 2.76 (elite)ERA 3.11 (good)2d stress Stressed (7.3 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 2.30 (elite)ERA 1.42 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR—+4.5 (-275)O10.5 (+148)NYY—-4.5 (+375)U10.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR+108+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (+106)NYY-135-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (-113/-113)1.5 (-130/+100)NYY3.5 (-145/+114)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJose Soriano5.5 (+109 / -138)16.5 (-117 / -104)Carlos Rodon4.5 (-146 / +130)15.5 (+155 / +152)
Jose Soriano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L5.010077355
L5.010077355Aug 18@ W5.29129033
W5.29129033Aug 12vs 
W6.09044211
W6.09044211Aug 7@ W4.29434312
W4.29434312Jul 26@ 
W5.08553301
W5.08553301Carlos Rodon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W4.07622212
W4.07622212Aug 18@ W4.06642211
W4.06642211Jun 28@ L5.09661402
L5.09661402Jun 23@ 
W5.18756233
W5.18756233Jun 17vs W5.09977133
W5.09977133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jose Soriano
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.03.75avg6.56.52.0(2)
at NYY6.03.75avg6.56.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L5.010077355
L5.010077355Jun 16@ W7.010166100
W7.010166100Carlos Rodon
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR4.72.57elite4.33.73.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W4.07622212
W4.07622212May 21vs L5.09573311
L5.09573311Jul 21@ L5.010746524
L5.010746524home starts5.03.00good5.33.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W4.07622212
W4.07622212Jun 17vs W5.09977133
W5.09977133Jun 4vs 
W6.09672311
W6.09672311Trends · TOR
- TOR are 6-6 vs NYY this season (12 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Jose Soriano's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-1 in Jose Soriano's last 3 away starts.
- TOR average 5.0 runs/game in Jose Soriano's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 6.0 runs/game in Jose Soriano's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 3-0 to the over in Jose Soriano's last 3 starts.
- TOR are 2-0 to the over in Jose Soriano's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 6-6 vs TOR this season (12 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 4-1 in Carlos Rodon's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-1 in Carlos Rodon's last 3 home starts.
- NYY average 5.8 runs/game in Carlos Rodon's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 4.0 runs/game in Carlos Rodon's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- TOR — Jose Soriano: Whiff% 26.3 (last 3 starts) is well above what K% 13.4 shows — his strikeout rate looks undervalued, more Ks may be due
- TOR bullpen stressed (7.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TOR — Jose Soriano: recent opponents low-K: PHI 14%, BOS 16%, TBR 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- NYY — Carlos Rodon: last start: 66 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- NYY — Carlos Rodon: recent opponents high-K: DET 26%, BAL 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
STL @ PHI1:35 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
STL @ PHIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kyle Leahy R
xERA3.11 (good)ERA1.80 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)Whiff%27.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%45.0 (below)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs78BB%0.0 (elite)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+149 (elite)K%13.7 (elite)Whiff%18.9 (above)HH%33.9 (below)
L12
wRC+127 (above)K%15.8 (elite)Whiff%18.3 (above)HH%37.4 (avg)
C. Sanchez L
xERA3.22 (good)ERA1.59 (elite)K%27.1 (good)Whiff%31.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.1 (good)Barrel%2.2 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs94BB%7.1 (avg)
STL vs LHP
L6
wRC+134 (elite)K%25.9 (below)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%39.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+138 (elite)K%22.5 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%37.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 4.46 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
PHI
xERA 3.79 (avg)ERA 3.66 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+203+1.5 (-850)O7.5 (+370)PHI+550-1.5 (+490)U9.5 (-113)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+186+0.5 (+114)O4.5 (+116)PHI-230-0.5 (-148)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL3.5 (+122/-154)1.5 (+114/-145)PHI4.5 (-113/-113)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Leahy3.5 (-115 / +102)13.5 (-112 / -102)C. Sanchez6.5 (-128 / +113)18.5 (+148 / -188)
Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ W4.06342200
W4.06342200Aug 18@ 
W5.09063000
W5.09063000Aug 12vs W5.08166011
W5.08166011Aug 7vs W5.08288022
W5.08288022Jul 31@ L6.09836111
L6.09836111C. Sanchez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W6.210379044
W6.210379044Aug 17vs 
W6.09068311
W6.09068311Aug 11@ L6.08974000
L6.08974000Aug 6vs 
W5.09866222
W5.09866222Aug 1@ W6.099112500
W6.099112500SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Leahy
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI4.51.00elite5.04.01.0(2)
at PHI4.00.00elite4.02.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ W4.06342200
W4.06342200Aug 12vs W5.08166011
W5.08166011C. Sanchez
IPERAKHBB
vs STL6.12.97elite7.35.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W6.210379044
W6.210379044Aug 11@ L6.08974000
L6.08974000May 12vs L6.09884322
L6.09884322home starts5.73.66good6.37.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W6.210379044
W6.210379044Aug 17vs W6.09068311
W6.09068311Aug 6vs W5.09866222
W5.09866222Trends · STL
- STL are 2-3 vs PHI this season (5 games).
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 3-2 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 3.4 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.4 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 0-3 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 3 away starts.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 3-2 vs STL this season (5 games).
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- PHI have won 8 straight.
- PHI are 4-1 in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 5-0 in C. Sanchez's last 5 home starts.
- PHI average 5.8 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 8.4 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 3-2 to the over in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-0 to the over in C. Sanchez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
78°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph W
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- STL offense: K% 25.9 (last 6) is well above what Whiff% 18.6 supports — strikeout rate looks due for positive regression (fewer Ks)
- STL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PHI bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PHI — C. Sanchez: recent opponents high-K: WSN 42%, STL 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
WSN @ MIA✓1:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
WSN @ MIA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
TBD
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
MIA
No data
Janson Junk R
xERA4.46 (avg)ERA3.21 (good)K%8.5 (poor)Whiff%6.8 (poor)
More Stats
HH%38.0 (avg)Barrel%4.0 (elite)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs79BB%6.8 (good)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+51 (poor)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%22.2 (avg)HH%32.3 (below)
L12
wRC+73 (poor)K%21.7 (avg)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%33.0 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 3.41 (good)ERA 3.95 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 2.73 (elite)ERA 4.64 (below)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+5000+3.5 (+130)O8.5 (+111)MIA-10000-3.5 (-158)U8.5 (-140)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+126+0.5 (-118)O4.5 (-108)MIA-158-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (-113/-113)1.5 (-135/+105)MIA4.5 (+104/-125)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTBD——Janson Junk3.5 (+110 / -139)16.5 (-128 / -104)
Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W4.26922011
W4.26922011Aug 17@ L5.08828222
L5.08828222Aug 12vs 
W6.08124112
W6.08124112Aug 6@ 
L3.04715122
L3.04715122Jul 31@ 
W5.07943201
W5.07943201SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Janson Junk
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN4.86.92poor3.75.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W4.26922011
W4.26922011May 9vs W6.09467244
W6.09467244Sep 8vs L4.18638266
L4.18638266home starts4.81.88elite3.34.30.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W4.26922011
W4.26922011Aug 12vs W6.08124112
W6.08124112Jul 26vs 
L4.27567011
L4.27567011Trends · WSN
- WSN are 1-7 vs MIA this season (8 games).
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- WSN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 7-1 vs WSN this season (8 games).
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-2 in Janson Junk's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 4.8 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 5.6 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 4-1 to the over in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-1 to the over in Janson Junk's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 4
- WSN — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- WSN bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
Janson Junk u3.5 Ks (-139)
Junk carries an extreme 8.5% K rate and 6.8% whiff over his last 3, striking out just 1, 2, and 2 batters for a 1.7 K/start average. WSN makes contact at a 22.2% K rate vs RHP over its last 6, offering no boost to his bat-missing. Even at this price a pitcher averaging under two strikeouts a start is a strong under against a number more than double his output.
ATH @ 
HOU2:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
ATH @ HOUMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Brady Basso
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
HOU
No data
Cristian Javier R
xERA4.79 (below)ERA5.40 (poor)K%13.6 (below)Whiff%21.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%5.5 (good)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs88BB%3.0 (elite)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%15.7 (elite)Whiff%22.2 (avg)HH%33.8 (below)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%16.0 (above)Whiff%21.8 (avg)HH%33.1 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 4.30 (avg)ERA 6.65 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 3.82 (avg)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+171+1.5 (-195)O15.5 (-132)HOU-190-1.5 (+164)U15.5 (+105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+145+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-146)HOU-182-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH3.5 (-120/-102)1.5 (-140/+110)HOU4.5 (-122/+100)2.5 (-125/-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrady Basso——Cristian Javier4.5 (+101 / -122)15.5 (+120 / -148)
Cristian Javier · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L4.09084233
L4.09084233Aug 18vs 
L4.08755122
L4.08755122Aug 9@ L5.08628144
L5.08628144Aug 3vs L6.08527033
L6.08527033Jul 27@ W5.0*7073000
W5.0*7073000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cristian Javier
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH3.89.47poor4.75.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L4.09084233
L4.09084233Apr 3@ L3.28226566
L3.28226566Sep 23@ L4.27946134
L4.27946134home starts4.75.14below5.05.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L4.09084233
L4.09084233Aug 18vs L4.08755122
L4.08755122Aug 3vs L6.08527033
L6.08527033Trends · ATH
- ATH are 4-4 vs HOU this season (8 games).
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- ATH are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 4-4 vs ATH this season (8 games).
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 0-5 in Cristian Javier's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 1-2 in Cristian Javier's last 3 home starts.
- HOU average 2.0 runs/game in Cristian Javier's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 4.3 runs/game in Cristian Javier's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 1-2 to the over in Cristian Javier's last 3 starts.
- HOU are 0-2 to the over in Cristian Javier's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
- ATH — Brady Basso: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- ATH offense: Whiff% 22.2 (last 6) is well above what K% 15.7 shows — strikeout rate may be undervalued, more Ks could be due
- HOU bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- HOU — Cristian Javier: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27, 2026-07-19 — may affect pitch count or availability
- HOU — Cristian Javier: 2026-08-09: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- HOU — Cristian Javier: recent opponents low-K: TOR 17%, SDP 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
NYM @ CHW2:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
NYM @ CHWMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Nolan McLean R
xERA4.22 (avg)ERA3.71 (good)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%18.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%12.5 (below)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+92 (below)K%23.7 (avg)Whiff%29.7 (poor)HH%36.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+109 (avg)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%25.9 (below)HH%39.5 (avg)
Sean Newcomb
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYM
No data
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 3.43 (good)ERA 2.95 (elite)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 3.42 (good)ERA 3.64 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+185-1.5 (+340)O1.5 (-120)CHW-143-1.5 (+390)U1.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM-132-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-102)CHW+106+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM4.5 (+114/+110)2.5 (+120/-154)CHW3.5 (-122/+100)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNolan McLean6.5 (+115 / -127)17.5 (-125 / +118)Sean Newcomb——
Nolan McLean · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L6.09261400
L6.09261400Aug 17vs W6.010336411
W6.010336411Aug 11@ L6.08531211
L6.08531211Aug 6@ W5.09488355
W5.09488355Jul 30vs W6.19966222
W6.19966222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nolan McLean
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW6.00.00elite6.01.04.0(1)
at CHW6.00.00elite6.01.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L6.09261400
L6.09261400Trends · NYM
- NYM are 1-1 vs CHW this season (2 games).
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 3-2 in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 4-1 in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.
- NYM average 4.4 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 6.4 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 1-4 to the over in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 0-2 to the over in Nolan McLean's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 1-1 vs NYM this season (2 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
71°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph NNE
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- CHW — Sean Newcomb: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- CHW offense: Whiff% 29.7 (last 6) is well above what K% 23.7 shows — strikeout rate may be undervalued, more Ks could be due
- NYM — Nolan McLean: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- NYM — Nolan McLean: 2026-08-06: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NYM — Nolan McLean: recent opponents low-K: CLE 18%, SDP 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
DET @ 
KCR✓2:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumNeutral Conditions
DET @ KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
TBD
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
KCR
No data
Daniel Lynch L
xERA4.53 (below)ERA9.00 (poor)K%17.1 (avg)Whiff%23.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%36.0 (avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs2.7 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs48BB%11.4 (below)
DET vs LHP
L6
wRC+18 (poor)K%26.4 (below)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%38.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+59 (poor)K%24.5 (below)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%38.7 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 3.68 (good)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 4.18 (avg)ERA 3.35 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET+299+1.5 (-101)O19.5 (+130)KCR-200-1.5 (+130)U18.5 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-108+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-118)KCR-115-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UDET4.5 (+104/-125)2.5 (+114/-145)KCR3.5 (-140/+114)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTBD——Daniel Lynch2.5 (-120 / +100)11.5 (-138 / +104)
Daniel Lynch · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W4.15924122
W4.15924122Aug 18vs W4.04512211
W4.04512211Aug 12@ 
L2.13933033
L2.13933033Aug 7vs 
L1.23523234
L1.23523234Aug 4vs W1.0*1111000
W1.0*1111000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Daniel Lynch
IPERAKHBB
vs DET4.14.39avg2.04.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W4.15924122
W4.15924122home starts3.15.81poor1.73.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W4.15924122
W4.15924122Aug 18vs W4.04512211
W4.04512211Aug 7vs L1.23523234
L1.23523234Trends · DET
- DET are 6-6 vs KCR this season (12 games).
- DET are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- DET have lost 4 straight.
Over / Under
- DET are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 6-6 vs DET this season (12 games).
- KCR are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR have won 7 straight.
- KCR are 1-2 in Daniel Lynch's last 3 starts.
- KCR are 1-1 in Daniel Lynch's last 2 home starts.
- KCR average 3.3 runs/game in Daniel Lynch's last 3 starts.
- KCR average 4.0 runs/game in Daniel Lynch's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph ENE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- DET — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- KCR — Daniel Lynch: small sample (8.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- KCR — Daniel Lynch: avg 2.7 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- DET bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- KCR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- KCR — Daniel Lynch: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-04, 2026-07-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
- KCR — Daniel Lynch: last start: 45 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
KCR Team Total o4.5 (+114)
Kansas City is mashing right-handed pitching at a 138 wRC+ over their last 6, up from 105 over their last 12, and they draw Madden, who has thrown just 4.2 innings across 3 starts, sits 83 days removed from his last outing, and topped out at 48 pitches — he will not go deep. That funnels the game to Detroit's bullpen early, and a heater of a lineup facing a starter who cannot cover innings is worth more than the plus-money price on 4.5.
LAA @ TEX✓2:35 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
LAA @ TEX✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Yusei Kikuchi L
xERA2.81 (elite)ERA3.46 (good)K%26.4 (good)Whiff%21.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%11.8 (below)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs71BB%7.5 (avg)
TEX vs LHP
L6
wRC+110 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%21.3 (avg)HH%40.5 (above)
L12
wRC+85 (below)K%21.8 (avg)Whiff%21.9 (avg)HH%43.4 (above)
Cal Quantrill R
xERA2.49 (elite)ERA0.69 (elite)K%22.0 (avg)Whiff%18.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.1 (avg)Barrel%2.8 (elite)IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs88BB%6.0 (good)
LAA vs RHP
L6
wRC+83 (below)K%26.9 (below)Whiff%28.9 (poor)HH%35.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+88 (below)K%25.7 (below)Whiff%27.0 (below)HH%36.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 2.47 (elite)ERA 2.19 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 2.98 (elite)ERA 4.54 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+4300+4.5 (+155)O7.5 (-106)TEX-6000-5.5 (+135)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+122+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-106)TEX-152-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA3.5 (+100/-120)1.5 (-135/+105)TEX4.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UYusei Kikuchi4.5 (-117 / +102)14.5 (-144 / +125)Cal Quantrill3.5 (-125 / +108)15.5 (+102 / -110)
Yusei Kikuchi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L5.08947155
L5.08947155Apr 29@ L2.03512100
L2.03512100Apr 24@ L5.09055255
L5.09055255Apr 18vs L6.08684100
L6.08684100Apr 13@ L3.18234444
L3.18234444Cal Quantrill · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W5.18766000
W5.18766000Aug 18vs W7.09154000
W7.09154000Aug 12@ L5.08564311
L5.08564311Aug 8vs W1.0*1000000
W1.0*1000000Aug 3vs L6.08744113
L6.08744113SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Yusei Kikuchi
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX4.78.94poor4.07.01.3(3)
at TEX5.07.20poor4.34.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L5.08947155
L5.08947155Aug 26@ L4.08134366
L4.08134366Jul 29vs W5.1105510034
W5.1105510034Apr 15@ L6.07963211
L6.07963211Cal Quantrill
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA5.00.89elite6.05.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W5.18766000
W5.18766000Aug 12@ L5.08564311
L5.08564311home starts6.00.00elite5.55.00.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W5.18766000
W5.18766000Aug 18vs W7.09154000
W7.09154000Trends · LAA
- LAA are 8-4 vs TEX this season (12 games).
- LAA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 0-5 in Yusei Kikuchi's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-4 in Yusei Kikuchi's last 5 away starts.
- LAA average 3.6 runs/game in Yusei Kikuchi's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 4.6 runs/game in Yusei Kikuchi's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 4-8 vs LAA this season (12 games).
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-2 in Cal Quantrill's last 4 home starts.
- TEX average 2.6 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.2 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 0-5 to the over in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 0-3 to the over in Cal Quantrill's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 9
- TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAA — Yusei Kikuchi: 116 days since last start (2026-04-29) — may not be fully stretched out news ↗
- LAA — Yusei Kikuchi: last start: 35 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- LAA — Yusei Kikuchi: 2026-04-24: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAA — Yusei Kikuchi: recent opponents high-K: SDP 31%, CHW 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-08, 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: recent opponents high-K: SFG 29%, LAA 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TREND: TEX — was shut out 3-0 last time out — due for some offensive regression
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
Yusei Kikuchi u14.5 Outs (+124)
Kikuchi is making his first start in 116 days and threw only 35 pitches in his last outing, so he is not stretched out to cover the 4.83 innings this line demands. TEX has hit him for an 8.30 ERA across their last 3 meetings and sits at 110 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 (up from 85 over its last 12), a lineup positioned to run his pitch count up early. The market is pricing his elite 2.81 xERA and ignoring that his physical workload ceiling caps the outing well short of this number.
TEX -1.5 (+134)
Quantrill has been dominant over his last 3 with a 2.49 xERA, 6.5 IP/gs, and a 2.22 ERA across 2 meetings vs LAA, who bring just an 83 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6. TEX meanwhile has tagged Kikuchi for an 8.30 ERA over their last 3 meetings and is heating up at 110 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6, with a bounce-back angle after being shut out last time out. At plus money the run line pays for TEX winning comfortably, an edge the near-even ML doesn't offer.
CLE @ COL3:10 PM · Coors FieldHot
CLE @ COLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Foster Griffin L
xERA4.33 (avg)ERA4.20 (avg)K%23.1 (good)Whiff%17.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%42.2 (below)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs81BB%7.7 (avg)
COL vs LHP
L6
wRC+57 (poor)K%24.3 (below)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%31.0 (below)
L12
wRC+51 (poor)K%23.6 (avg)Whiff%22.3 (avg)HH%29.2 (poor)
Tomoyuki Sugano R
xERA4.82 (below)ERA6.19 (poor)K%15.9 (below)Whiff%19.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.2 (avg)Barrel%10.9 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs85BB%4.3 (elite)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+83 (below)K%17.5 (above)Whiff%17.9 (elite)HH%37.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+86 (below)K%16.0 (above)Whiff%16.7 (elite)HH%35.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 3.22 (good)ERA 2.38 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 4.98 (below)ERA 3.64 (good)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-380-3.5 (-101)O16.5 (+105)COL+324+3.5 (-120)U15.5 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-160-0.5 (-128)O5.5 (-144)COL+136+0.5 (-102)U5.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE6.5 (+104/-130)3.5 (+110/-140)COL4.5 (-111/+100)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFoster Griffin4.5 (-142 / +112)17.5 (-150 / +118)Tomoyuki Sugano2.5 (+100 / -121)15.5 (-101 / -131)
Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ W2.05822322
W2.05822322Aug 18vs W6.010165211
W6.010165211Aug 12@ W5.08334113
W5.08334113Aug 6vs L4.08867255
L4.08867255Jul 31@ L5.17839266
L5.17839266Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L2.07228155
L2.07228155Aug 17vs L5.08937167
L5.08937167Aug 11@ 
W6.09356022
W6.09356022Aug 5vs L5.08535233
L5.08535233Jul 31vs W6.28325011
W6.28325011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Foster Griffin
IPERAKHBB
vs COL2.09.00poor2.02.03.0(1)
at COL2.09.00poor2.02.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ W2.05822322
W2.05822322Tomoyuki Sugano
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE4.17.38poor3.06.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L2.07228155
L2.07228155Jul 21@ L3.29046434
L3.29046434Apr 17vs W7.08735022
W7.08735022home starts4.010.50poor2.76.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L2.07228155
L2.07228155Aug 17vs L5.08937167
L5.08937167Aug 5vs L5.08535233
L5.08535233Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-0 vs COL this season (2 games).
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 2-1 in Foster Griffin's last 3 starts.
- CLE are 1-0 in Foster Griffin's last 1 away starts.
- CLE average 6.7 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 3 starts.
- CLE average 6.0 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 2-0 to the over in Foster Griffin's last 2 starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 0-2 vs CLE this season (2 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- COL have lost 5 straight.
- COL are 3-2 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL are 3-2 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 3.2 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL average 4.0 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 1-4 to the over in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-2 to the over in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
94°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph N
APF 116 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- CLE bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE — Foster Griffin: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- CLE — Foster Griffin: 2026-08-06: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CLE — Foster Griffin: recent opponents high-K: DET 26%, SFG 33% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: 2026-08-17: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: recent opponents low-K: TBR 17%, ARI 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 116) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
SFG @ BOS✓3:15 PM · Fenway ParkRainy
SFG @ BOS✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Matt Wilkinson
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
BOS
No data
Jake Bennett L
xERA3.31 (good)ERA6.60 (poor)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%24.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs72BB%9.0 (avg)
SFG vs LHP
L6
wRC+58 (poor)K%33.0 (poor)Whiff%29.3 (poor)HH%35.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+62 (poor)K%27.6 (below)Whiff%28.5 (poor)HH%40.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 3.57 (good)2d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 2.88 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+114+1.5 (-250)O10.5 (-112)BOS-125-1.5 (+200)U10.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+172+0.5 (+108)O4.5 (+100)BOS-200-0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USFG3.5 (+112/-130)1.5 (-120/-110)BOS4.5 (-120/+100)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMatt Wilkinson2.5 (-116 / -110)9.5 (+131 / -174)Jake Bennett4.5 (-122 / +110)16.5 (-125 / +102)
Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L4.04626133
L4.04626133Aug 14@ L4.08265144
L4.08265144Aug 8vs L5.18855344
L5.18855344Aug 2@ W5.28846233
W5.28846233Jul 28@ L6.18846233
L6.18846233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jake Bennett
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG4.06.75poor2.06.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L4.04626133
L4.04626133home starts4.86.29poor3.76.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L4.04626133
L4.04626133Aug 8vs L5.18855344
L5.18855344Jul 22vs W5.28349033
W5.28349033Trends · SFG
- SFG are 0-2 vs BOS this season (2 games).
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 2-0 vs SFG this season (2 games).
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 2-3 in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Jake Bennett's last 5 home starts.
- BOS average 4.8 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 4.6 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 2-3 to the over in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 1-2 to the over in Jake Bennett's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Rainy
68°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 5 mph E
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (36%)
Flags · 3
- SFG — Matt Wilkinson: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SFG bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WEATHER: rain risk 36% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
Jake Bennett o4.5 Ks (-118)
San Francisco is striking out at a 34.6% clip over their last 6 vs LHP with a 30.4% Whiff% underneath it, both consistent with their last-12 marks, and Bennett brings a 22.4 K% and 24.6 Whiff% over his last 3. He has posted 4, 5, and 6 punchouts recently facing lesser whiff lineups, and the number sits at 4.5 against one of the most strikeout-prone offenses on the board.
CHC @ 
SEA✓4:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
CHC @ SEA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Shota Imanaga L
xERA4.13 (avg)ERA4.60 (below)K%30.9 (elite)Whiff%31.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%16.7 (poor)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs90BB%4.4 (elite)
SEA vs LHP
L6
wRC+78 (poor)K%26.7 (below)Whiff%26.9 (below)HH%38.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+68 (poor)K%27.2 (below)Whiff%25.6 (below)HH%42.3 (above)
Bryce Miller R
xERA4.37 (avg)ERA8.04 (poor)K%18.6 (avg)Whiff%21.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.5 (avg)Barrel%11.5 (below)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs62BB%7.1 (avg)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+101 (avg)K%26.2 (below)Whiff%26.5 (below)HH%36.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+121 (above)K%22.8 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.34 (avg)ERA 3.50 (good)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 4.45 (avg)ERA 7.93 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-114-1.5 (+146)O7.5 (+102)SEA+100+1.5 (-190)U7.5 (-125)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-124-0.5 (+116)O3.5 (-146)SEA+105+0.5 (-152)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-145/+114)SEA3.5 (-104/-120)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShota Imanaga5.5 (-113 / -105)17.5 (-151 / +114)Bryce Miller4.5 (-154 / +130)16.5 (-123 / +106)
Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs W6.096102333
W6.096102333Aug 11@ W4.28656044
W4.28656044Aug 5vs W5.08968011
W5.08968011Jul 31vs L6.210164022
L6.210164022Jul 25@ W6.08444100
W6.08444100Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L0.1600000
L0.1600000Aug 18@ 
L4.29237256
L4.29237256Aug 12@ L6.08958155
L6.08958155Aug 6vs L5.09355244
L5.09355244Jul 31vs L5.18733222
L5.18733222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryce Miller
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC0.10.00elite0.00.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L0.1600000
L0.1600000home starts3.45.29poor2.72.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L0.1600000
L0.1600000Aug 6vs L5.09355244
L5.09355244Jul 31vs L5.18733222
L5.18733222Trends · CHC
- CHC are 0-2 vs SEA this season (2 games).
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 4-1 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 away starts.
- CHC average 6.6 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 6.2 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 3-2 to the over in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-1 to the over in Shota Imanaga's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 2-0 vs CHC this season (2 games).
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 0-5 in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-4 in Bryce Miller's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 2.4 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 1.2 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 5-0 to the over in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
67°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph NW
APF 91 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 4
- SEA bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC — Shota Imanaga: 2026-08-11: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHC — Shota Imanaga: recent opponents high-K: WSN 42%, CHW 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 91) — park suppresses offense, favor the under
Shota Imanaga o5.5 Ks (-109)
Imanaga has a 30.9 K% and 31.6 Whiff% over his last 3 with 6, 5, and 10 strikeouts, and Seattle carries a 24.8 K% and 24.3 Whiff% over their last 6 vs LHP against a 79 wRC+ that cannot square him up. His 17.5-out line gives him the length to clear the number, and the market is discounting his bat-missing form against a lineup built to chase.
PIT @ LAD✓4:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHot
PIT @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Lake Bachar
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
LAD
No data
Blake Snell L
xERA2.13 (elite)ERA3.60 (good)K%31.8 (elite)Whiff%36.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%10.8 (elite)Barrel%2.7 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs62BB%9.5 (avg)
PIT vs LHP
L6
wRC+81 (below)K%29.0 (poor)Whiff%25.0 (below)HH%41.8 (above)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%30.1 (poor)Whiff%26.3 (below)HH%43.5 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.29 (good)ERA 3.78 (avg)2d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 2.95 (elite)ERA 4.02 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+284+1.5 (+105)O8.5 (-103)LAD-280-2.5 (+101)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+220+1.5 (-146)O4.5 (-102)LAD-265-1.5 (+112)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT2.5 (-138/+110)1.5 (+120/-154)LAD4.5 (-136/+110)2.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULake Bachar2.5 (+124 / -159)—Blake Snell8.5 (-111 / -113)17.5 (-176 / +145)
Blake Snell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L0.21110000
L0.21110000Aug 17@ W6.09052311
W6.09052311Aug 11vs W6.084103111
W6.084103111May 9vs L3.07756245
L3.07756245SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Blake Snell
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT2.68.65poor3.54.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L0.21110000
L0.21110000Sep 4@ L5.09069355
L5.09069355home starts3.14.89below5.33.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L0.21110000
L0.21110000Aug 11vs W6.084103111
W6.084103111May 9vs L3.07756245
L3.07756245Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-4 vs LAD this season (5 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- PIT are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 4-1 vs PIT this season (5 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD have won 5 straight.
- LAD are 2-1 in Blake Snell's last 3 starts.
- LAD are 1-1 in Blake Snell's last 2 home starts.
- LAD average 6.0 runs/game in Blake Snell's last 3 starts.
- LAD average 3.5 runs/game in Blake Snell's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 2-0 to the over in Blake Snell's last 2 starts.
Weather · Hot
99°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- PIT — Lake Bachar: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- PIT bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAD — Blake Snell: 2026-05-09: 4 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
PIT Team Total u2.5 (+114)
Snell has a 2.13 xERA with a 36.6 Whiff% and a 10.8 HH% over his last 3, and Pittsburgh's bat has cooled to an 88 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 with a 25.3 K%. He suppresses hard contact as well as anyone, Los Angeles' bullpen backs him with a 2.51 xERA, and the plus-money price on the Pirates staying under 2.5 undervalues how dominant this matchup is against a cold lineup.
MIN @ SDP✓4:10 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
MIN @ SDP✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Bailey Ober R
xERA5.38 (poor)ERA5.51 (poor)K%11.6 (poor)Whiff%17.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%49.1 (poor)Barrel%10.2 (avg)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs89BB%2.9 (elite)
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+123 (above)K%18.3 (above)Whiff%25.6 (below)HH%39.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+127 (above)K%17.7 (above)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%43.2 (above)
Walker Buehler R
xERA2.77 (elite)ERA2.25 (elite)K%19.1 (avg)Whiff%15.4 (below)
More Stats
HH%26.7 (elite)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs65BB%7.9 (avg)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+97 (avg)K%15.6 (elite)Whiff%20.6 (above)HH%42.0 (above)
L12
wRC+99 (avg)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%40.4 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.15 (good)ERA 3.80 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 2.02 (elite)ERA 2.01 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+160+1.5 (-130)O8.5 (+105)SDP-180-1.5 (+110)U8.5 (-121)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+110+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-144)SDP-132-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIN3.5 (-138/+110)2.5 (+130/-166)SDP4.5 (+100/-120)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBailey Ober3.5 (-105 / -115)16.5 (-125 / -106)Walker Buehler3.5 (-136 / +114)15.5 (+104 / -130)
Bailey Ober · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs W4.19446122
W4.19446122Aug 11vs L6.010048155
L6.010048155Aug 6@ W6.07406033
W6.07406033Jul 30vs W6.07934223
W6.07934223Jul 22@ W4.08928144
W4.08928144Walker Buehler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L1.01001000
L1.01001000Aug 17@ L6.08642222
L6.08642222Aug 11vs W6.09853211
W6.09853211Aug 6@ W4.07636111
W4.07636111Aug 1vs W4.17918233
W4.17918233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Walker Buehler
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN1.00.00elite0.01.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L1.01001000
L1.01001000home starts3.73.24good2.04.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L1.01001000
L1.01001000Aug 11vs W6.09853211
W6.09853211Aug 1vs W4.17918233
W4.17918233Trends · MIN
- MIN are 0-2 vs SDP this season (2 games).
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 4-1 in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 4-1 in Bailey Ober's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 4.8 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 6.8 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 1-4 to the over in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 1-1 to the over in Bailey Ober's last 2 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 2-0 vs MIN this season (2 games).
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 4-1 in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 4-1 in Walker Buehler's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 5.6 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 6.4 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 3-2 to the over in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 3-0 to the over in Walker Buehler's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
87°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph NW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- MIN — Bailey Ober: Whiff% 17.8 (last 3 starts) is well above what K% 11.6 shows — his strikeout rate looks undervalued, more Ks may be due
- SDP offense: Whiff% 25.6 (last 6) is well above what K% 18.3 shows — strikeout rate may be undervalued, more Ks could be due
- MIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- SDP bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- MIN — Bailey Ober: 2026-08-11: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SDP Team Total o4.5 (+104)
Ober has a 5.38 xERA over his last 3 with a bloated 49.1 HH% and an 11.6 K% that won't bail him out, and San Diego is hitting at a 113 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a low 17.6 K%. At home where they've gone 9-1 over their last 10, a contact-heavy lineup against a starter surrendering that much hard contact should clear 4.5, and the market is offering it at plus money.
CIN @ ARI✓4:15 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
CIN @ ARI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Andrew Abbott L
xERA3.85 (avg)ERA5.19 (below)K%17.1 (avg)Whiff%19.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs93BB%9.2 (avg)
ARI vs LHP
L6
wRC+138 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%18.5 (above)HH%33.8 (below)
L12
wRC+151 (elite)K%19.7 (above)Whiff%17.1 (elite)HH%38.6 (avg)
Mitch Bratt L
xERA2.77 (elite)ERA2.81 (elite)K%21.3 (avg)Whiff%15.4 (below)
More Stats
HH%31.7 (good)Barrel%7.3 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs50BB%11.5 (below)
CIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+68 (poor)K%30.4 (poor)Whiff%20.3 (above)HH%29.3 (poor)
L12
wRC+74 (poor)K%32.4 (poor)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%30.9 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 5.49 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 5.09 (below)ERA 3.95 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+128+1.5 (-166)O8.5 (-120)ARI-138-1.5 (+140)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN-102+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-132)ARI-120-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (+102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN3.5 (-136/+110)2.5 (+110/-142)ARI4.5 (-106/-115)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Abbott3.5 (+104 / -130)16.5 (+100 / -136)Mitch Bratt4.5 (+110 / +134)14.5 (-140 / +124)
Andrew Abbott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs L6.19864222
L6.19864222Aug 13@ W4.19337355
W4.19337355Aug 6vs W6.28847233
W6.28847233Aug 1vs L5.09813533
L5.09813533Jul 26@ W6.010043422
W6.010043422Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L0.2610000
L0.2610000Aug 17@ L3.06504333
L3.06504333Aug 11vs L6.07844122
L6.07844122Aug 5vs W7.09291300
W7.09291300Jul 31@ W5.08223411
W5.08223411SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Abbott
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI4.57.00poor5.56.01.5(2)
at ARI4.013.50poor6.08.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 14vs L5.09554311
L5.09554311Aug 23@ L4.07368067
L4.07368067Mitch Bratt
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN0.20.00elite1.00.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L0.2610000
L0.2610000home starts4.41.36elite4.71.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L0.2610000
L0.2610000Aug 11vs L6.07844122
L6.07844122Aug 5vs W7.09291300
W7.09291300Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-3 vs ARI this season (5 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-2 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 3-2 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 4.2 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.4 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-2 to the over in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 3-0 to the over in Andrew Abbott's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 3-2 vs CIN this season (5 games).
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 2-3 in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 in Mitch Bratt's last 3 home starts.
- ARI average 4.0 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 4.7 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 2-3 to the over in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 to the over in Mitch Bratt's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 8
- CIN offense: K% 30.4 (last 6) is well above what Whiff% 20.3 supports — strikeout rate looks due for positive regression (fewer Ks)
- ARI bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.09 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- CIN bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CIN — Andrew Abbott: 2026-08-13: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CIN — Andrew Abbott: recent opponents high-K: CHW 27%, STL 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: 2026-08-17: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: high-K outing 2026-08-05 (9 Ks vs avg 4.3) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
CIN Team Total u3.5 (+110)
CIN's bats sit at just 68 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 74 over their last 12 with a 30.4% K rate over the last 6, a consistently poor and whiff-heavy profile now facing Mitch Bratt, whose 2.77 xERA and 2.81 ERA over his last 3 agree that his run prevention is genuine and who owns a 2.09 ERA across his last 3 home starts at 5.7 IP/gs. A frozen offense against an established elite arm should sit at 2-3 runs, but the market is pricing this at a coin flip and paying plus money for the under.
ATL @ MIL✓7:10 PM · Journey Bank Ballpark · NEUTRAL SITE
ATL @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tyler Mahle R
xERA4.29 (avg)ERA1.45 (elite)K%27.5 (good)Whiff%28.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%44.7 (below)Barrel%10.6 (avg)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs87BB%4.3 (elite)
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+165 (elite)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%20.3 (above)HH%55.3 (elite)
L12
wRC+108 (avg)K%22.8 (avg)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%49.7 (elite)
Shane Drohan L
xERA5.31 (poor)ERA6.57 (poor)K%17.5 (avg)Whiff%22.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%42.1 (below)Barrel%13.2 (below)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs73BB%15.8 (poor)
ATL vs LHP
L6
wRC+43 (poor)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%27.7 (below)HH%32.4 (below)
L12
wRC+87 (below)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%24.8 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 3.29 (good)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 2.75 (elite)ERA 1.74 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL+106-1.5 (+168)O7.5 (-115)MIL-112+1.5 (-201)U7.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL+102+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+114)MIL-120-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL3.5 (-120/-105)1.5 (-140/+110)MIL3.5 (-128/+105)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Mahle5.5 (+131 / -162)15.5 (+120 / -145)Shane Drohan4.5 (-111 / -104)14.5 (-180 / +152)
Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18@ L6.27636122
L6.27636122Aug 12vs W6.09374011
W6.09374011Aug 7@ L6.09293200
L6.09293200Aug 1@ L5.29995255
L5.29995255Jul 27vs W6.08833200
W6.08833200Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs W2.0*3911200
W2.0*3911200Aug 13@ W5.18553333
W5.18553333Aug 7vs L5.09449466
L5.09449466Jul 31@ W6.08674122
W6.08674122Jul 24vs L6.09266255
L6.09266255SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.00.00elite3.03.02.0(1)
at MIL—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27vs W6.08833200
W6.08833200Shane Drohan
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL—
home starts5.59.00poor5.07.53.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs L5.09449466
L5.09449466Jul 24vs L6.09266255
L6.09266255Trends · ATL
- ATL are 2-3 vs MIL this season (5 games).
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 1-2 in Tyler Mahle's last 3 starts.
- ATL are 0-2 in Tyler Mahle's last 2 away starts.
- ATL average 3.0 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 3 starts.
- ATL average 1.5 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 1-2 to the over in Tyler Mahle's last 3 starts.
- ATL are 0-2 to the over in Tyler Mahle's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 3-2 vs ATL this season (5 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 3-2 in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-3 in Shane Drohan's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 5.4 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.4 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 3-2 to the over in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-1 to the over in Shane Drohan's last 3 home starts.
Weather
66°F, Wind 6 mph SW
Flags · 5
- ATL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- ATL — Tyler Mahle: last start: 76 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- MIL — Shane Drohan: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-18 — may affect pitch count or availability
- MIL — Shane Drohan: 2026-08-07: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NEUTRAL SITE: played at Journey Bank Ballpark (Williamsport) — not MIL's home park. Park factor and any home-park assumption do not apply here.
MIL Team Total o3.5 (-122)
MIL sits at 165 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6, up sharply from 108 over its last 12, with a 55.3% hard-hit rate over the last 6 — a lineup crushing the ball right now. Tyler Mahle carries a 4.29 xERA over his last 3 with a 44.7% hard-hit rate allowed, and his 1.45 ERA over that stretch is pure sequencing luck he isn't earning. The market is pricing Mahle's shiny ERA rather than the contact he's giving up, undervaluing a hot MIL offense at plus-money-adjacent odds.
MIL ML (-112)
Milwaukee's offense is red hot at 165 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6, up from 108 over its last 12, with a 55.3% hard-hit rate that lines up perfectly against Tyler Mahle, whose 4.29 xERA over his last 3 badly undercuts his shiny 1.45 ERA and who allows a 44.7% hard-hit rate himself. MIL also owns the far better relief unit at 2.75 bullpen xERA versus 3.31 for ATL, and ATL's lineup is buried at 43 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 against a wild-but-live Drohan; a near-pickem price on the hotter, deeper club facing a pitcher due for negative regression is the mispricing.