AI Picks · 12 Bets · Jul 31
Nathan Eovaldi Ks o6.5 (+122) (+122)
Eovaldi has elite recent K numbers (10K, 9K, 9K in last 3 starts) averaging 9.3 K/start. His K% is 28.2%. HOU's K% vs RHP is 22.7%, which is above average and supports high K totals. His matchup history at this park is exceptional (0.63 ERA, 7.1 IP/gs in 2 starts), suggesting he goes deep. Calibrating for HOU's 22.7% K rate (moderate), adjusted expectation is ~8.0–8.5 Ks. The line is only 6.5 at +122 — that's outstanding value. The only concern is the TEX bullpen being fresh (may hook early), but his recent 7-inning outing and high pitch counts suggest the manager keeps him in. This is a line that significantly undervalues his current trajectory.
Found at 11:53 AM ET
ATH Team Total o4.5 (-110)
ATH offense (wRC+ 126 vs RHP L12) faces Casey Mize whose xERA of 3.09 is respectable but who posted a 14.52 ERA in 1 prior start at this park and vs ATH, and ATH has been averaging 7.8 RS at home in Springs' starts. The key edge here is Jeffrey Springs: xERA 6.12, ERA 10.13, recent ERA 9.44 STRUGGLING, Barrel% 12%, 3.6 IP/gs — he'll exit early and hand off to an ATH bullpen (xERA 6.06) that is one of the worst on the board. ATH's offense will feast on Springs and the shoddy pen behind him. The ATH bullpen being bad (disqualifying for ML) is irrelevant for ATH's own team total — they score regardless. Full-game team total is the correct expression.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
TEX ML (+112)
Compound edge favoring Texas. Eovaldi brings a dominant recent form (recent ERA ~3.00, xERA 3.11) with exceptional history at Daikin Park (0.63 ERA, 7.1 IP/gs) and vs HOU (2.55 ERA, 7.3 K/gs). Meanwhile Hunter Brown is struggling badly: recent ERA 6.19, 4.0 IP/gs in his worst start, 7.39 ERA at home in his last 3 home starts, and his BB% is a concerning 15.3%. TEX offense is hot (wRC+ 118 in L12 vs RHP) and averaging 6.8 RS in Eovaldi's recent starts. Both bullpens are solid (TEX xERA 3.35, HOU xERA 3.23), supporting a full-game ML. Getting TEX at +112 with a clearly superior starter and a hot offense against a struggling home pitcher is genuine value — the market seems to be weighting HOU's home field more heavily than the actual pitching matchup warrants.
Found at 7:33 PM ET
ARI ML +126 (+126)
Bibee is struggling recently (recent ERA 4.71, 6ER in one start vs CHW) and has a poor history vs ARI (6.92 ERA in 1gs, 5.29 ERA at home over 3gs). ARI offense is strong vs RHP (wRC+ 121). Bratt is a concern but ARI bullpen is reasonably fresh and the CLE pen has been stressed (5 IP yesterday). CLE is 3-7 in their L10 with only 2-3 in Bibee's last 5 starts. At +126, ARI has clear value as the underdog here.
Found at 5:00 PM ET
KCR @ COL o11.0 (-105)
Classic Coors Field demolition setup. Sugano's xERA is 6.93 — among the worst in baseball — with a 15.5% barrel rate and a recent ERA of 7.88 (and the 7 ER blowup start noted as an outlier, but his other start gave 6 ER too). Wacha's recent ERA of 5.69 with a 4.23 xERA shows a pitcher currently struggling. Both bullpens are shaky (KCR xERA 5.10, COL xERA 4.91). Coors Field at APF 115 is the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. COL is averaging 9.6 RS in their last 5 home starts in Sugano's starts. Wacha has never faced COL or pitched at Coors, removing any edge from familiarity. Both offenses are capable of scoring here — KCR's offense is avg (wRC+ 97) but Coors inflates everything. The 11.0 total accounts for Coors but still looks low given two struggling pitchers and two leaky bullpens. Getting the over at -105 on 11.0 is reasonable.
Found at 7:33 PM ET
MIL Team Total o5.5 (+110)
Milwaukee's offense is hot (wRC+ 121 in L12 vs RHP) facing Ryan Johnson, who has a 4.74 xERA, an 8.10 ERA, and averages only 4.4 IP/gs. Johnson's recent ERA of 3.86 looks better but is flagged — a 23 ERA-equivalent blowup start is excluded, and his most recent start was only 69 pitches (short outing concern). His K% is just 17.0% with an 11.9% walk rate, suggesting trouble putting hitters away. Once Johnson exits, LAA's bullpen (xERA 2.92) is elite — but that just means MIL needs to score their runs early. With a hot offense vs a vulnerable starter, MIL scoring 5+ runs is very achievable. Getting +110 on MIL Over 5.5 is excellent value — we're betting the offense, not the outcome, which removes bullpen dependency concerns.
Found at 7:33 PM ET
DET @ ATH o10.5 (+102)
Every major over signal fires here. Both starters are poor: Holton's xERA is 5.82 with only 3 total IP across 3 relief-style appearances (likely short outing again), and Springs' xERA is 6.12 with a recent ERA of 9.44 — actively struggling RIGHT NOW. Springs averages just 3.6 IP/gs, meaning Oakland's hideous bullpen (xERA 5.61) enters early. DET's bullpen is also elevated at xERA 4.18. Springs has a 13.17 ERA at home in his last 3 home starts. Hitter-friendly park (APF 110) adds another boost. ATH averages 7.8 RS at home in Springs' recent home starts. The market has set the alt total at 11.0 (-105) / 10.5 (+102) — taking the +102 on the lower number is excellent value given how chaotic both pitching staffs are. Multiple disqualifying factors for any 'under' play (bad starters, bad bullpens, hitter-friendly park).
Found at 7:33 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
STL @ TOR u7.5 (-105)
Elite pitching matchup with both starters in dominant form. Dylan Cease has an xERA of 2.03 (elite), recent ERA 1.88, avg 10.0 K/start, and dominated STL in prior meeting (0.00 ERA, 9 Ks). Kyle Leahy has an xERA of 2.84 (elite), recent ERA 0.69 HOT — both are on great recent runs. STL offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 76 L12), and TOR is below avg (wRC+ 81). STL averages only 2.4 RS in Leahy's recent starts. Both bullpens are decent (STL xERA 3.66, TOR xERA 3.54). The only concern is Leahy's high pitch count last start (102) and Cease's (120 last start) — both could be on shorter leashes, but the quality replacements from the pens still support an under. At 7.5 with this pitching, the market line appears generous. At least 3 under signals align strongly.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
Dylan Cease o7.5 Ks (-128) (-128)
Cease's recent avg is 10.0 K/start (8 starts of dominance — 11K, 9K, 10K in last 3). STL has a low K% (17.9%) vs RHP, which is actually contact-oriented — a note of caution, but his prior start vs STL yielded 9 Ks in 5 innings. His xERA is 2.03 with K% 36.7% — elite strikeout profile. Adjusted for STL's lower K rate (17.9% vs the ~23-26% teams he's been facing), scaling back slightly from 10.0, but STL's K% is still meaningful and Cease's raw K rate is so high that adjusted expectation is still ~8.5-9 Ks. The -128 price is steep but the adjusted expectation is 1+ K above the line. Cease went 0.00 ERA / 9 Ks vs STL in one prior start. The concern is a possible early hook after 120 pitches last outing — if he's limited to 5 innings he could still get 7-8 Ks. Medium confidence given the pricing and workload concern.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
CHW @ TBR u8.5 (-119)
Nick Martinez is elite — xERA 1.64, ERA 0.69, recent ERA 2.34, 6.5 IP/gs avg, and a 0.00 ERA vs CHW in 1 prior start (7 IP). His matchup history at home is strong (1.66 ERA in 3 home starts). CHW offense is below avg vs RHP (wRC+ 86 L12). TBR bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.53). Erick Fedde is struggling recently (ERA 5.40 recent, HH% 57%) but CHW's bullpen is also decent (xERA 3.13). TBR offense is average (wRC+ 107). TBR in last 5 home starts with Martinez: 5-0, avg only 4.8 RS, so even TBR's offense hasn't run wild. The total at 8.5 seems appropriate but Martinez's elite profile and elite bullpen cover the back end. CHW averages 9.6 RS in Fedde's starts (run support, but their own scoring has been higher). Pricing at -119 is reasonable for a one-sided pitching edge. Under signal: Martinez's elite xERA, CHW cold offense, TBR elite bullpen. Disqualifier check: No rain, no NO STATS pitchers. Medium confidence due to Fedde's struggles potentially giving up TBR runs and boosting total, but Martinez + elite TBR pen limits damage.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
WSN ML +108 (+108)
Massive pitching mismatch favoring WSN. Foster Griffin is elite right now: recent ERA 0.95, HOT, with a 2.25 ERA and 6.0 IP/gs in 2 career starts vs ATL, and a 0.00 ERA at Truist Park. Bryce Elder is in freefall — recent ERA 10.29, STRUGGLING, with 49% HH% and 17% Barrel%, and a 6.00 ERA at home this season. WSN's offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 153 L12), runs 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 starts with 6.2 RS average and 7.0 RS away. Elder has a big xERA vs ERA gap (xERA 6.03, season ERA only 3.60) — the market is underestimating Elder's true run risk. ATL's offense vs LHP is only average (wRC+ 95). WSN gets a clean +108 with all factors aligned: dominant hot starter, catastrophic opposing starter, elite offense.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
WSN Team Total o4.5 (+106)
Independent offensive edge from WSN's attack vs Elder. WSN is wRC+ 153 vs RHP in L12 — elite. Elder's xERA is 6.03 (true quality very poor), Barrel% 17%, HH% 49%, and recent ERA 10.29. Even adjusting for matchup history (Elder is 3.28 ERA vs WSN in 3 prior starts — more favorable, but those were likely better days), the current form is alarming. WSN averaging 7.0 RS in away games in Griffin's recent starts. At +106, this is excellent value on the strongest offensive edge of the card today.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
NYY @
CHC2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldRainy
NYY @
CHCMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Will Warren R
xERA7.73 (poor)K%20.0 (avg)HH%53.8 (poor)Barrel%11.5 (below avg)ERA7.27IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs57BB%12.5
CHC vs RHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%23.0 (avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
Shota Imanaga L
xERA3.09 (good)K%18.1 (avg)HH%33.9 (good)Barrel%3.6 (elite)ERA0.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs95BB%4.2
NYY vs LHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%24.9 (below avg)HH%37.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY+134+1.5 (-163)O9.0 (-115)CHC-148-1.5 (+138)U9.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY+124+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-138)CHC-156-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderNYYO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-140)CHCO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWill Warren4.5 (-128 / +108)15.5 (+113 / -150)Shota Imanaga5.5 (-136 / +108)18.5 (+123 / +155)
Will Warren · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31@
W6.28874000
W6.28874000Jul 26@
L3.06856266
L3.06856266Jul 22vs
W0.2*1611100
W0.2*1611100Jul 12@
W5.08324211
W5.08324211Jul 7@
L4.07537266
L4.07537266Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31vs
L6.210164022
L6.210164022Jul 25@
W6.08444100
W6.08444100Jul 19vs
W7.09946100
W7.09946100Jul 10@
L5.010257111
L5.010257111Jul 4vs
L4.28684322
L4.28684322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Will Warren
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.71.594.05.01.5(2)
at CHC6.20.007.04.00.0(1)
Shota Imanaga
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.62.056.03.00.5(2)
home starts5.82.076.04.71.3(3)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 1-4 in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Will Warren's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 4.4 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 3-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 4-1 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 4.8 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 5.0 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 3.212d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 3.88 (avg)ERA 2.832d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
77°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph SSE
APF 97 — Neutral · Rain possible (4%)
Flags · 8
- NYY — Will Warren: small sample (8.2 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- NYY — Will Warren: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- NYY — Will Warren: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- NYY bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- NYY — Will Warren: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- NYY — Will Warren: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- WEATHER: rain risk 4% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
PIT @
CIN6:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
PIT @
CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Paul Skenes R
xERA2.96 (elite)K%36.6 (elite)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%10.5 (avg)ERA4.08IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs97BB%7.0
CIN vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%26.0 (below avg)HH%38.2 (avg)
Hunter Greene R
xERA3.34 (good)K%29.7 (elite)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA4.42IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs84BB%4.0
PIT vs RHP
wRC+82 (below avg)K%27.9 (below avg)HH%32.3 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+328+1.5 (+122)O13.5 (+110)CIN-380-2.5 (+120)U12.5 (+116)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-140-0.5 (+106)O3.5 (-128)CIN+112+0.5 (-138)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-140)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)CINO3.5 (-102)U3.5 (-125)O1.5 (-105)U1.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPaul Skenes8.5 (+119 / +105)17.5 (-171 / +140)Hunter Greene7.5 (+122 / -149)—
Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31@
L3.18756433
L3.18756433Jul 25vs
L5.1105116255
L5.1105116255Jul 19@
W7.010087211
W7.010087211Jul 12vs
W5.18273122
W5.18273122Jul 7vs
W6.09548122
W6.09548122Hunter Greene · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31vs
L4.07035233
L4.07035233Jul 25@
L5.18938267
L5.18938267Jul 19@
W6.09474033
W6.09474033Jul 10vs
W7.093123100
W7.093123100Jul 4vs
L3.18977488
L3.18977488SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.45.505.75.02.7(3)
at CIN4.72.555.74.32.0(3)
Hunter Greene
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.72.656.04.01.7(3)
home starts4.77.027.35.02.3(3)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 6-4 vs CIN this season (10 games).
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 1-4 in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 7.8 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 5.0 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 4-6 vs PIT this season (10 games).
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 2-2 in Hunter Greene's last 4 starts.
- CIN are 1-1 in Hunter Greene's last 2 home starts.
- CIN average 4.5 runs/game in Hunter Greene's last 4 starts.
- CIN average 4.5 runs/game in Hunter Greene's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 3.912d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 4.58 (below avg)ERA 3.202d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph ESE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- CIN bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PIT — Paul Skenes: last start: 105 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- PIT — Paul Skenes: 2026-07-25: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CIN — Hunter Greene: 2026-07-25: 6 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
PHI @
BAL7:05 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
PHI @
BALMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Andrew Painter R
xERA5.57 (poor)K%15.9 (below avg)HH%28.9 (elite)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA13.11IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs9.5PC/gs51BB%11.1
BAL vs RHP
wRC+68 (poor)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%35.7 (avg)
Brandon Young R
xERA2.91 (elite)K%22.8 (avg)HH%42.1 (below avg)Barrel%3.5 (elite)ERA2.21IP/gs6.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs71BB%5.1
PHI vs RHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%28.5 (poor)HH%44.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI+120+1.5 (-186)O11.5 (-102)BAL-135-1.5 (+146)U11.5 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI+106+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (-114)BAL-132-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
OverUnderPHIO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-135)BALO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Painter——Brandon Young4.5 (-136 / +124)17.5 (-125 / -105)
Andrew Painter · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31@
L1.01812022
L1.01812022Jun 17vs
L2.05636266
L2.05636266Jun 12@
L5.0*7836355
L5.0*7836355Jun 6vs
L4.29348266
L4.29348266May 31@
L3.18037144
L3.18037144Brandon Young · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31vs
L1.02412122
L1.02412122Jul 25vs
W6.19464211
W6.19464211Jul 19@
W7.09575111
W7.09575111Jul 10vs
W7.08558133
W7.08558133Jul 4@
W5.010258344
W5.010258344SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Painter
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL1.018.001.02.00.0(1)
at BAL1.018.001.02.00.0(1)
Brandon Young
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI1.018.001.02.01.0(1)
home starts4.73.834.04.71.3(3)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 1-4 in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-4 in Andrew Painter's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 2.8 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 2.2 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 4.012d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 1.59 (elite)ERA 2.342d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 5 mph SSE
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- PHI bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- BAL bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PHI — Andrew Painter: 44 days since last start (2026-06-17) — may not be fully stretched out
- PHI — Andrew Painter: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
- PHI — Andrew Painter: last start: 56 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
STL @
TOR✓7:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
STL @
TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kyle Leahy R
xERA2.84 (elite)K%27.8 (good)HH%47.4 (poor)Barrel%7.9 (good)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs72BB%1.8
TOR vs RHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%14.8 (elite)HH%29.9 (poor)
Dylan Cease R
xERA2.03 (elite)K%36.7 (elite)HH%27.3 (elite)Barrel%9.1 (avg)ERA1.69IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs86BB%8.3
STL vs RHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%18.2 (above avg)HH%42.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+190+1.5 (-145)O6.5 (+105)TOR-198-1.5 (+121)U5.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+146+0.5 (-104)O4.5 (+112)TOR-180-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO3.5 (+112)U3.5 (-135)O1.5 (-105)U1.5 (-125)TORO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Leahy4.5 (+134 / -166)17.5 (-105 / -109)Dylan Cease7.5 (-128 / +107)18.5 (+120 / -160)
Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31@
L1.01910000
L1.01910000Jul 26vs
L6.010296122
L6.010296122Jul 20@
L6.09543011
L6.09543011Jul 10vs
W3.04421000
W3.04421000Jul 4@
W5.07763200
W5.07763200Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31vs
L2.03630200
L2.03630200Jul 25@
W9.0120121300
W9.0120121300Jul 20vs
L6.010177135
L6.010177135Jul 8@
W8.0118111300
W8.0118111300Jul 3@
W7.010293100
W7.010293100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Leahy
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR1.00.001.00.00.0(1)
at TOR1.00.001.00.00.0(1)
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs STL3.50.006.00.51.5(2)
home starts4.15.166.73.72.7(3)
Trends · STL
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 3-2 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 1-4 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 2.4 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 4.2 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-3 in Dylan Cease's last 5 home starts.
- TOR average 4.6 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 2.6 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.06 (avg)ERA 5.202d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 4.092d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
78°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph S
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- STL — Kyle Leahy: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- STL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TOR bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- STL — Kyle Leahy: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- STL — Kyle Leahy: low-K outing 2026-07-10 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- STL — Kyle Leahy: high-K outing 2026-07-26 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 120 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
STL @ TOR u7.5 (-105)
Elite pitching matchup with both starters in dominant form. Dylan Cease has an xERA of 2.03 (elite), recent ERA 1.88, avg 10.0 K/start, and dominated STL in prior meeting (0.00 ERA, 9 Ks). Kyle Leahy has an xERA of 2.84 (elite), recent ERA 0.69 HOT — both are on great recent runs. STL offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 76 L12), and TOR is below avg (wRC+ 81). STL averages only 2.4 RS in Leahy's recent starts. Both bullpens are decent (STL xERA 3.66, TOR xERA 3.54). The only concern is Leahy's high pitch count last start (102) and Cease's (120 last start) — both could be on shorter leashes, but the quality replacements from the pens still support an under. At 7.5 with this pitching, the market line appears generous. At least 3 under signals align strongly.
Dylan Cease o7.5 Ks (-128) (-128)
Cease's recent avg is 10.0 K/start (8 starts of dominance — 11K, 9K, 10K in last 3). STL has a low K% (17.9%) vs RHP, which is actually contact-oriented — a note of caution, but his prior start vs STL yielded 9 Ks in 5 innings. His xERA is 2.03 with K% 36.7% — elite strikeout profile. Adjusted for STL's lower K rate (17.9% vs the ~23-26% teams he's been facing), scaling back slightly from 10.0, but STL's K% is still meaningful and Cease's raw K rate is so high that adjusted expectation is still ~8.5-9 Ks. The -128 price is steep but the adjusted expectation is 1+ K above the line. Cease went 0.00 ERA / 9 Ks vs STL in one prior start. The concern is a possible early hook after 120 pitches last outing — if he's limited to 5 innings he could still get 7-8 Ks. Medium confidence given the pricing and workload concern.
ARI @
CLE✓7:10 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
ARI @
CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mitch Bratt L
xERA4.91 (below avg)K%10.9 (poor)HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%10.6 (avg)ERA7.11IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs65BB%14.1
CLE vs LHP
wRC+61 (poor)K%20.4 (avg)HH%16.7 (poor)
Tanner Bibee R
xERA2.88 (elite)K%16.2 (below avg)HH%26.7 (elite)Barrel%3.3 (elite)ERA2.89IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs73BB%8.8
ARI vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%16.6 (above avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+230+1.5 (-102)O8.5 (+103)CLE-270-1.5 (-115)U7.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+110+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-140)CLE-138-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO3.5 (-145)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-166)U1.5 (+130)CLEO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMitch Bratt3.5 (-138 / +108)—Tanner Bibee4.5 (+110 / -140)17.5 (-148 / +112)
Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31@
L1.02001111
L1.02001111Jul 25@
L5.09237555
L5.09237555Jul 20vs
L4.28448122
L4.28448122Jul 12@
W3.05803333
W3.05803333Jun 24@
W3.05432211
W3.05432211Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31vs
W1.21710000
W1.21710000Jul 25@
L6.010759233
L6.010759233Jul 20vs
W6.09556122
W6.09556122Jul 11@
W6.29435411
W6.29435411Jul 5vs
L4.06216166
L4.06216166SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mitch Bratt
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE1.09.000.01.01.0(1)
at CLE1.09.000.01.01.0(1)
Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI3.25.623.03.50.5(2)
home starts3.76.432.34.00.7(3)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 2-2 in Mitch Bratt's last 4 starts.
- ARI are 2-1 in Mitch Bratt's last 3 away starts.
- ARI average 4.8 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 4 starts.
- ARI average 5.7 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 5.0 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 5.6 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.15 (avg)ERA 5.362d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 2.42 (elite)ERA 3.352d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph N
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ARI bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CLE bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: last start: 107 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
ARI ML +126 (+126)
Bibee is struggling recently (recent ERA 4.71, 6ER in one start vs CHW) and has a poor history vs ARI (6.92 ERA in 1gs, 5.29 ERA at home over 3gs). ARI offense is strong vs RHP (wRC+ 121). Bratt is a concern but ARI bullpen is reasonably fresh and the CLE pen has been stressed (5 IP yesterday). CLE is 3-7 in their L10 with only 2-3 in Bibee's last 5 starts. At +126, ARI has clear value as the underdog here.
CHW @
TBR✓7:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
CHW @
TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Erick Fedde R
xERA3.96 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%57.1 (poor)Barrel%11.4 (below avg)ERA3.65IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs48BB%4.2
TBR vs RHP
wRC+111 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%34.2 (below avg)
Nick Martinez R
xERA1.64 (elite)K%12.5 (below avg)HH%19.5 (elite)Barrel%2.4 (elite)ERA0.69IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs63BB%2.1
CHW vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%24.7 (below avg)HH%36.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW-133-1.5 (+118)O9.5 (+110)TBR+130+1.5 (-145)U9.5 (-126)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+120+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-120)TBR-145-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)TBRO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UErick Fedde3.5 (+109 / -122)—Nick Martinez4.5 (+118 / -142)17.5 (-103 / -110)
Erick Fedde · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31@
W1.01310000
W1.01310000Jul 26vs
W4.16825133
W4.16825133Jul 20@
W4.06464022
W4.06464022Jul 11vs
W4.0*5532100
W4.0*5532100Jul 5@
W5.1*8948123
W5.1*8948123Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31vs
L2.02212022
L2.02212022Jul 25vs
W6.08454000
W6.08454000Jul 20@
W6.08206111
W6.08206111Jul 10vs
W5.17014122
W5.17014122Jul 3@
W5.18533111
W5.18533111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Erick Fedde
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR1.00.001.00.00.0(1)
at TBR1.00.001.00.00.0(1)
Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW4.52.002.02.00.0(2)
home starts4.42.752.33.30.3(3)
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 0-3 vs TBR this season (3 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 5-0 in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 3-2 in Erick Fedde's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 9.6 runs/game in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 7.2 runs/game in Erick Fedde's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 3-0 vs CHW this season (3 games).
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 5-0 in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 5-0 in Nick Martinez's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 5.2 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 4.8 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 2.91 (elite)ERA 3.242d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 2.24 (elite)ERA 1.812d stress Stressed (7.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Dome
Flags · 5
- CHW — Erick Fedde: HH% 57% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHW bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR bullpen stressed (7.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW — Erick Fedde: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-11, 2026-07-05 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHW — Erick Fedde: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
CHW @ TBR u8.5 (-119)
Nick Martinez is elite — xERA 1.64, ERA 0.69, recent ERA 2.34, 6.5 IP/gs avg, and a 0.00 ERA vs CHW in 1 prior start (7 IP). His matchup history at home is strong (1.66 ERA in 3 home starts). CHW offense is below avg vs RHP (wRC+ 86 L12). TBR bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.53). Erick Fedde is struggling recently (ERA 5.40 recent, HH% 57%) but CHW's bullpen is also decent (xERA 3.13). TBR offense is average (wRC+ 107). TBR in last 5 home starts with Martinez: 5-0, avg only 4.8 RS, so even TBR's offense hasn't run wild. The total at 8.5 seems appropriate but Martinez's elite profile and elite bullpen cover the back end. CHW averages 9.6 RS in Fedde's starts (run support, but their own scoring has been higher). Pricing at -119 is reasonable for a one-sided pitching edge. Under signal: Martinez's elite xERA, CHW cold offense, TBR elite bullpen. Disqualifier check: No rain, no NO STATS pitchers. Medium confidence due to Fedde's struggles potentially giving up TBR runs and boosting total, but Martinez + elite TBR pen limits damage.
MIA @
NYM7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
MIA @
NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Janson Junk R
xERA3.65 (good)K%22.9 (avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA5.27IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs57BB%11.5
NYM vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%26.8 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Kodai Senga R
xERA7.66 (poor)K%23.3 (good)HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%18.8 (poor)ERA10.13IP/gs5.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs25BB%23.3
MIA vs RHP
wRC+117 (above avg)K%26.3 (below avg)HH%44.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+130+1.5 (-190)O6.5 (-140)NYM-141-1.5 (+149)U6.5 (+110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+105+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-122)NYM-128-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO3.5 (-136)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-166)U1.5 (+130)NYMO4.5 (+120)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJanson Junk3.5 (-150 / +126)16.5 (+100 / -115)Kodai Senga——
Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31@
L1.01710000
L1.01710000Jul 26vs
L4.27567011
L4.27567011Jul 20@
L4.08035366
L4.08035366Jul 9vs
W5.07953412
W5.07953412May 25@
W5.09338011
W5.09338011Kodai Senga · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31vs
L2.02230000
L2.02230000Jul 18@
L1.1*4523322
L1.1*4523322Jul 10vs
L1.0*910000
L1.0*910000Jul 7vs
L3.0*6145444
L3.0*6145444Jul 3@
L2.2*4442011
L2.2*4442011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Janson Junk
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM1.00.001.00.00.0(1)
at NYM1.00.001.00.00.0(1)
Kodai Senga
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA3.74.024.34.01.3(3)
home starts2.00.003.00.00.0(1)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 3-4 vs NYM this season (7 games).
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 5.0 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 3.6 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 4-3 vs MIA this season (7 games).
- NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 0-5 in Kodai Senga's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 0-4 in Kodai Senga's last 4 home starts.
- NYM average 2.6 runs/game in Kodai Senga's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 3.0 runs/game in Kodai Senga's last 4 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 4.31 (avg)ERA 6.522d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 1.99 (elite)ERA 1.412d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph S
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 10
- NYM — Kodai Senga: small sample (5.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- NYM — Kodai Senga: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- NYM — Kodai Senga: Barrel% 19% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- NYM — Kodai Senga: BB% 23% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- MIA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIA — Janson Junk: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- MIA — Janson Junk: 2026-07-20: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NYM — Kodai Senga: 38 days since last start (2026-06-23) — may not be fully stretched out
- NYM — Kodai Senga: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-18, 2026-07-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
- NYM — Kodai Senga: recent opponents high-K: COL 26%, CIN 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
WSN @
ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
WSN @
ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Foster Griffin L
xERA3.67 (good)K%10.5 (poor)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA2.45IP/gs7.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs68BB%3.5
ATL vs LHP
wRC+84 (below avg)K%21.3 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)
Bryce Elder R
xERA6.03 (poor)K%23.4 (good)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%17.1 (poor)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs65BB%10.9
WSN vs RHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%39.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+115+1.5 (-183)O8.5 (-106)ATL-130-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (-119)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN-116-0.5 (+118)O4.5 (-128)ATL-108+0.5 (-154)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)ATLO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFoster Griffin4.5 (-148 / +119)17.5 (-180 / +135)Bryce Elder4.5 (+116 / -136)17.5 (-115 / +100)
Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31@
L0.0*000000
L0.0*000000Jul 25vs
W6.210826133
W6.210826133Jul 19@
W7.09728111
W7.09728111Jul 8vs
W7.09995011
W7.09995011Jul 3vs
W5.08324111
W5.08324111Bryce Elder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31vs
L1.01901100
L1.01901100Jul 25@
L5.09884412
L5.09884412Jul 20vs
W6.07745122
W6.07745122Jul 9@
W4.06935234
W4.06935234Jun 27@
L4.06945155
L4.06945155SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Foster Griffin
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL6.02.254.54.01.0(2)
at ATL6.00.006.03.01.0(1)
Bryce Elder
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN4.42.733.33.01.3(3)
home starts4.36.923.36.01.3(3)
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-5 vs ATL this season (8 games).
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 5-0 in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 4-1 in Foster Griffin's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 6.2 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 7.0 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 5-3 vs WSN this season (8 games).
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 2-3 in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Bryce Elder's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 3.8 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.8 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 4.502d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 4.63 (below avg)ERA 5.402d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
88°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph WSW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- ATL — Bryce Elder: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ATL — Bryce Elder: Barrel% 17% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- WSN bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WSN — Foster Griffin: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- WSN — Foster Griffin: high-K outing 2026-07-08 (9 Ks vs avg 4.3) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- WSN — Foster Griffin: recent opponents high-K: HOU 26%, ATH 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
WSN ML +108 (+108)
Massive pitching mismatch favoring WSN. Foster Griffin is elite right now: recent ERA 0.95, HOT, with a 2.25 ERA and 6.0 IP/gs in 2 career starts vs ATL, and a 0.00 ERA at Truist Park. Bryce Elder is in freefall — recent ERA 10.29, STRUGGLING, with 49% HH% and 17% Barrel%, and a 6.00 ERA at home this season. WSN's offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 153 L12), runs 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 starts with 6.2 RS average and 7.0 RS away. Elder has a big xERA vs ERA gap (xERA 6.03, season ERA only 3.60) — the market is underestimating Elder's true run risk. ATL's offense vs LHP is only average (wRC+ 95). WSN gets a clean +108 with all factors aligned: dominant hot starter, catastrophic opposing starter, elite offense.
WSN Team Total o4.5 (+106)
Independent offensive edge from WSN's attack vs Elder. WSN is wRC+ 153 vs RHP in L12 — elite. Elder's xERA is 6.03 (true quality very poor), Barrel% 17%, HH% 49%, and recent ERA 10.29. Even adjusting for matchup history (Elder is 3.28 ERA vs WSN in 3 prior starts — more favorable, but those were likely better days), the current form is alarming. WSN averaging 7.0 RS in away games in Griffin's recent starts. At +106, this is excellent value on the strongest offensive edge of the card today.
TEX @
HOU✓8:15 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
TEX @
HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Nathan Eovaldi R
xERA3.11 (good)K%28.2 (elite)HH%46.7 (poor)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)ERA4.24IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs90BB%7.0
HOU vs RHP
wRC+102 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)
Hunter Brown R
xERA3.74 (good)K%20.8 (avg)HH%43.2 (below avg)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA3.57IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs93BB%15.3
TEX vs RHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%25.5 (below avg)HH%38.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+112+1.5 (-204)O7.5 (-105)HOU-122-1.5 (+168)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-106+0.5 (-156)O3.5 (-148)HOU-115-0.5 (+120)U3.5 (+114)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO3.5 (-111)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)HOUO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNathan Eovaldi6.5 (+114 / -145)18.5 (+125 / -167)Hunter Brown6.5 (+116 / -143)17.5 (-140 / +106)
Nathan Eovaldi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs
W7.09183111
W7.09183111Jul 19@
L4.08126244
L4.08126244Jul 9vs
W6.099106234
W6.099106234Jul 2vs
W5.08596133
W5.08596133Jun 26@
W7.09295100
W7.09295100Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@
W7.09072000
W7.09072000Jul 19vs
L4.29243644
L4.29243644Jul 10@
L6.09844533
L6.09844533Jul 4vs
W4.08236467
W4.08236467Jun 28@
W6.010345223
W6.010345223SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nathan Eovaldi
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU7.12.557.34.71.7(3)
at HOU7.10.638.05.01.5(2)
Hunter Brown
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX5.73.716.74.33.3(3)
home starts4.57.394.74.04.3(3)
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 4-6 vs HOU this season (10 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 4-1 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 6.8 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 5.2 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 6-4 vs TEX this season (10 games).
- HOU are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-2 in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Hunter Brown's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 5.2 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 5.0 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.35 (good)ERA 4.532d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 3.23 (good)ERA 3.082d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
- TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- HOU — Hunter Brown: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TEX bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: 2026-07-19: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: low-K outing 2026-07-19 (2 Ks vs avg 6.7) — stuff was flat that day
- HOU — Hunter Brown: 2026-07-19: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Nathan Eovaldi Ks o6.5 (+122) (+122)
Eovaldi has elite recent K numbers (10K, 9K, 9K in last 3 starts) averaging 9.3 K/start. His K% is 28.2%. HOU's K% vs RHP is 22.7%, which is above average and supports high K totals. His matchup history at this park is exceptional (0.63 ERA, 7.1 IP/gs in 2 starts), suggesting he goes deep. Calibrating for HOU's 22.7% K rate (moderate), adjusted expectation is ~8.0–8.5 Ks. The line is only 6.5 at +122 — that's outstanding value. The only concern is the TEX bullpen being fresh (may hook early), but his recent 7-inning outing and high pitch counts suggest the manager keeps him in. This is a line that significantly undervalues his current trajectory.
KCR @
COL✓8:40 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
KCR @
COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael Wacha R
xERA4.23 (avg)K%18.5 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA1.93IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs99BB%7.4
COL vs RHP
wRC+71 (poor)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Tomoyuki Sugano R
xERA6.93 (poor)K%14.3 (below avg)HH%43.1 (below avg)Barrel%15.5 (poor)ERA6.48IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs85BB%2.9
KCR vs RHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%42.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR-106-1.5 (+134)O11.5 (+102)COL-102+1.5 (-156)U11.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR-120-0.5 (+108)O5.5 (-144)COL-104+0.5 (-140)U5.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO5.5 (-115)U5.5 (-110)O2.5 (-145)U2.5 (+114)COLO5.5 (+105)U5.5 (-130)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Wacha4.5 (+100 / -123)17.5 (-145 / +125)Tomoyuki Sugano3.5 (+106 / -123)15.5 (-104 / -125)
Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@
W7.09636222
W7.09636222Jul 20vs
W6.09653211
W6.09653211Jul 9@
L4.210456366
L4.210456366Jul 4vs
L6.010578144
L6.010578144Jun 27@
L7.210576111
L7.210576111Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24@
W5.19356122
W5.19356122Jul 18vs
W6.17736033
W6.17736033Jun 26@
L5.08528177
L5.08528177Jun 20vs
W6.08554011
W6.08554011Jun 14@
W5.09728268
W5.09728268SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tomoyuki Sugano
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.52.434.04.51.5(2)
home starts5.73.683.75.30.7(3)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-3 in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 2.4 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 2.6 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- COL have lost 4 straight.
- COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 9.6 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL average 5.0 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 5.10 (below avg)ERA 5.172d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 4.91 (below avg)ERA 5.402d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph E
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.10 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- KCR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- KCR — Michael Wacha: 2026-07-09: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: 2026-06-26: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
KCR @ COL o11.0 (-105)
Classic Coors Field demolition setup. Sugano's xERA is 6.93 — among the worst in baseball — with a 15.5% barrel rate and a recent ERA of 7.88 (and the 7 ER blowup start noted as an outlier, but his other start gave 6 ER too). Wacha's recent ERA of 5.69 with a 4.23 xERA shows a pitcher currently struggling. Both bullpens are shaky (KCR xERA 5.10, COL xERA 4.91). Coors Field at APF 115 is the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. COL is averaging 9.6 RS in their last 5 home starts in Sugano's starts. Wacha has never faced COL or pitched at Coors, removing any edge from familiarity. Both offenses are capable of scoring here — KCR's offense is avg (wRC+ 97) but Coors inflates everything. The 11.0 total accounts for Coors but still looks low given two struggling pitchers and two leaky bullpens. Getting the over at -105 on 11.0 is reasonable.
MIL @
LAA✓9:38 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
MIL @
LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Shane Drohan L
xERA2.55 (elite)K%28.0 (elite)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%10.2 (avg)ERA5.40IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs88BB%4.0
LAA vs LHP
wRC+98 (avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%27.2 (poor)
Ryan Johnson R
xERA4.74 (below avg)K%17.0 (avg)HH%20.0 (elite)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA8.10IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs78BB%11.9
MIL vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%21.6 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-160-1.5 (-108)O9.0 (-110)LAA+148+1.5 (-110)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-164-0.5 (-118)O4.5 (-140)LAA+135+0.5 (-110)U4.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMILO5.5 (+110)U4.5 (+110)O2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-110)LAAO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShane Drohan5.5 (-122 / +105)17.5 (-102 / +100)Ryan Johnson4.5 (+128 / +127)14.5 (-164 / +130)
Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24vs
L6.09266255
L6.09266255Jul 18vs
W6.09095133
W6.09095133Jul 11@
L6.18365033
L6.18365033Jul 6@
W6.08526213
W6.08526213Jul 1vs
W5.27876122
W5.27876122Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@
L3.16948188
L3.16948188Jul 19vs
W5.09152311
W5.09152311Jul 11@
L5.07513333
L5.07513333Jul 5vs
L4.08766125
L4.08766125Jun 29@
L5.08134013
L5.08134013SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Johnson
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL—
home starts5.01.806.33.01.7(3)
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 3-2 in Shane Drohan's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 4.0 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.8 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 1-4 in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 2-1 in Ryan Johnson's last 3 home starts.
- LAA average 3.0 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 4.3 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 4.01 (avg)ERA 4.532d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.92 (elite)ERA 2.962d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- MIL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIL — Shane Drohan: 2026-07-24: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAA — Ryan Johnson: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- LAA — Ryan Johnson: 2026-07-25: 8 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 23) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIL Team Total o5.5 (+110)
Milwaukee's offense is hot (wRC+ 121 in L12 vs RHP) facing Ryan Johnson, who has a 4.74 xERA, an 8.10 ERA, and averages only 4.4 IP/gs. Johnson's recent ERA of 3.86 looks better but is flagged — a 23 ERA-equivalent blowup start is excluded, and his most recent start was only 69 pitches (short outing concern). His K% is just 17.0% with an 11.9% walk rate, suggesting trouble putting hitters away. Once Johnson exits, LAA's bullpen (xERA 2.92) is elite — but that just means MIL needs to score their runs early. With a hot offense vs a vulnerable starter, MIL scoring 5+ runs is very achievable. Getting +110 on MIL Over 5.5 is excellent value — we're betting the offense, not the outcome, which removes bullpen dependency concerns.
DET @
ATH✓9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHot
DET @
ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tyler Holton L
xERA5.82 (poor)K%0.0 (poor)HH%41.7 (below avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA3.00IP/gs3.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs16BB%7.7
ATH vs LHP
wRC+99 (avg)K%26.1 (below avg)HH%34.7 (below avg)
Jeffrey Springs L
xERA6.12 (poor)K%11.5 (poor)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA10.13IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs69BB%11.5
DET vs LHP
wRC+34 (poor)K%25.2 (below avg)HH%39.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-132-1.5 (+107)O11.0 (-105)ATH+122+1.5 (-125)U10.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-140-0.5 (-108)O6.5 (+110)ATH+114+0.5 (-120)U6.5 (-144)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO5.5 (-125)U5.5 (+100)O2.5 (-145)U2.5 (+114)ATHO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (-104)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Holton——Jeffrey Springs4.5 (+126 / -135)14.5 (-130 / +116)
Tyler Holton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27vs
L0.1*1001111
L0.1*1001111Jul 25vs
L1.0*1101000
L1.0*1101000Jul 23vs
W1.2*2601000
W1.2*2601000Jul 20@
W1.0*1302001
W1.0*1302001Jul 19@
L1.1*2021000
L1.1*2021000Jeffrey Springs · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26@
L1.13604145
L1.13604145Jul 20@
W5.07826122
W5.07826122Jul 8@
L4.19246466
L4.19246466Jun 30vs
L5.19228466
L5.19228466Jun 25@
W5.18763233
W5.18763233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jeffrey Springs
IPERAKHBB
vs DET4.56.923.55.03.0(2)
home starts4.113.173.76.32.7(3)
Trends · DET
- DET are 3-0 vs ATH this season (3 games).
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 1-1 in Tyler Holton's last 2 starts.
- DET average 5.5 runs/game in Tyler Holton's last 2 starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 0-3 vs DET this season (3 games).
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-4 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 5.2 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 7.8 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 4.18 (avg)ERA 4.002d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 5.61 (poor)ERA 5.362d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
98°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 110 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 11
- DET — Tyler Holton: small sample (3.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- ATH — Jeffrey Springs: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ATH — Jeffrey Springs: avg 3.6 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.61 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- DET bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATH bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- DET — Tyler Holton: 88 days since last start (2026-05-04) — may not be fully stretched out
- DET — Tyler Holton: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27, 2026-07-25 — may affect pitch count or availability
- DET — Tyler Holton: last start: 22 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- ATH — Jeffrey Springs: last start: 36 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 110) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
ATH Team Total o4.5 (-110)
ATH offense (wRC+ 126 vs RHP L12) faces Casey Mize whose xERA of 3.09 is respectable but who posted a 14.52 ERA in 1 prior start at this park and vs ATH, and ATH has been averaging 7.8 RS at home in Springs' starts. The key edge here is Jeffrey Springs: xERA 6.12, ERA 10.13, recent ERA 9.44 STRUGGLING, Barrel% 12%, 3.6 IP/gs — he'll exit early and hand off to an ATH bullpen (xERA 6.06) that is one of the worst on the board. ATH's offense will feast on Springs and the shoddy pen behind him. The ATH bullpen being bad (disqualifying for ML) is irrelevant for ATH's own team total — they score regardless. Full-game team total is the correct expression.
SFG @
SDP9:45 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
SFG @
SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
C. Whisenhunt L
xERA5.15 (below avg)K%19.4 (avg)HH%41.3 (below avg)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA4.60IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs83BB%11.9
SDP vs LHP
wRC+89 (below avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%50.5 (elite)
Bradgley Rodriguez
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
SFG
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+132+1.5 (-163)O8.5 (-110)SDP-142-1.5 (+140)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+112+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-140)SDP-140-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (-128)U3.5 (+105)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)SDPO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UC. Whisenhunt3.5 (-145 / +120)15.5 (+120 / -160)Bradgley Rodriguez——
C. Whisenhunt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs
L5.07875244
L5.07875244Jul 9vs
W5.28743422
W5.28743422Jun 17@
W5.08526222
W5.08526222Trends · SFG
- SFG are 4-3 vs SDP this season (7 games).
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 2-1 in C. Whisenhunt's last 3 starts.
- SFG are 1-0 in C. Whisenhunt's last 1 away starts.
- SFG average 6.0 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 3 starts.
- SFG average 7.0 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 1 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 3-4 vs SFG this season (7 games).
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 3.462d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 2.14 (elite)ERA 3.322d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WNW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- SDP — Bradgley Rodriguez: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SDP bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: 2026-07-26: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Bradgley Rodriguez is a NO STATS first-time starter — hard disqualifying rule eliminates game totals and any bet dependent on his performance; Whisenhunt's K prop at 3.5 (-145) is overpriced relative to his 4.3 K/start average. SDP bullpen (xERA 2.14) is elite and would suppress any late-game scoring even if Whisenhunt struggles. No clean independent angle available.
BOS @
LAD10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
BOS @
LADMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ranger Suarez L
xERA3.13 (good)K%35.2 (elite)HH%38.2 (avg)Barrel%2.9 (elite)ERA4.26IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs71BB%1.8
LAD vs LHP
wRC+48 (poor)K%21.7 (avg)HH%34.1 (below avg)
Edgardo Henriquez
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
BOS
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS+120+1.5 (-188)O8.5 (+100)LAD-128-1.5 (+162)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS+106+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-102)LAD-132-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBOSO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+102)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)LADO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+118)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URanger Suarez4.5 (-129 / +102)15.5 (+138 / -182)Edgardo Henriquez——
Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs
W4.06464000
W4.06464000Jul 5@
W2.25356033
W2.25356033Jun 29vs
W6.09585133
W6.09585133Jun 24@
L6.010297113
L6.010297113Jun 19@
W6.29451300
W6.29451300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ranger Suarez
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD6.04.505.07.02.0(1)
at LAD6.04.505.07.02.0(1)
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 9-1 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 4-1 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 6.2 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 5.8 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.00 (good)ERA 1.942d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 5.10 (below avg)ERA 5.612d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- LAD — Edgardo Henriquez: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- LAD bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.10 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- BOS bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: last start: 64 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: 2026-07-05: 3 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: recent opponents high-K: LAA 26%, TOR 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Edgardo Henriquez is a NO STATS first-time starter — hard disqualifying rule eliminates any bet dependent on his performance; Suarez's K prop is tempting but his 7.3 avg K/start was inflated by high-K opponents (LAA 26%, TOR 25%) and the line at 4.5 (-129) is priced aggressively, and his Outs line is already set low (15.5 at -182) raising early-exit concerns; no clean full-game or total bet with one completely unknown arm.
MIN @
SEA10:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
MIN @
SEAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zebby Matthews R
xERA4.94 (below avg)K%11.3 (poor)HH%29.6 (elite)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA8.40IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs94BB%11.3
SEA vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%20.1 (avg)HH%35.8 (avg)
Bryce Miller R
xERA3.93 (avg)K%11.7 (poor)HH%37.7 (avg)Barrel%4.9 (elite)ERA6.19IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs87BB%7.8
MIN vs RHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%42.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+148+1.5 (-146)O7.5 (-113)SEA-160-1.5 (+129)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+142+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (-110)SEA-180-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO3.5 (+104)U3.5 (-130)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)SEAO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZebby Matthews4.5 (-128 / +108)17.5 (-137 / +103)Bryce Miller5.5 (-104 / -112)17.5 (-154 / +124)
Zebby Matthews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24vs
L6.09213322
L6.09213322Jul 19@
L3.087493810
L3.087493810Jul 10vs
L6.010239244
L6.010239244Jul 4@
W4.27953444
W4.27953444Jun 29@
W7.08974111
W7.08974111Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24@
L5.18906155
L5.18906155Jul 17vs
L5.29167123
L5.29167123Jul 9@
L5.08139446
L5.08139446Jul 2vs
W7.09082000
W7.09082000Jun 25@
L5.290115033
L5.290115033SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zebby Matthews
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA7.05.147.06.01.0(1)
at SEA7.05.147.06.01.0(1)
Bryce Miller
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN4.06.752.05.01.0(1)
home starts5.71.577.04.00.3(3)
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 1-2 vs SEA this season (3 games).
- MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 2-3 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 4.0 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 5.8 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 2-1 vs MIN this season (3 games).
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 1-4 in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-3 in Bryce Miller's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 2.0 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 1.4 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.55 (good)ERA 3.382d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 2.39 (elite)ERA 2.372d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
78°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph N
APF 92 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 2
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: 2026-07-19: 8 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 24) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SEA — Bryce Miller: recent opponents high-K: MIA 26%, TEX 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Both starters have low K rates (Matthews 11.3%, Miller 11.7%), making K props unattractive. The game total at 7.5 is reasonable — both offenses are below average (MIN wRC+ 87, SEA wRC+ 94), SEA bullpen is elite (xERA 2.39), and pitcher-friendly T-Mobile (APF 92) keeps a lid on things. However, Matthews' xERA 4.94 vs Miller's 3.93 creates mild over lean but not enough conviction signals (3 of 6 needed for under, not clearly enough for over at this line). No edge identified.