MLB Game Overviews

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Updated 09:27 UTC · Odds Updated 09:26 UTC

AI Picks · 9 Bets · Jul 12
MIL ML (+110)
MIL's bullpen is outstanding — xERA 2.26, ERA 1.37, one of the best in baseball. PIT's bullpen is the opposite: xERA 5.17, ERA 6.02, and under stress (12.3 IP over last 3g). Paul Skenes has been struggling recently (recent ERA 4.24, ERA 7.80 season, xERA 3.07 vs MIA at 4.80 ERA in 3 prior meetings). Robert Gasser is solid (xERA 3.29) though slightly struggling recently. MIL is 4-1 in Gasser's L5 starts with avg 6.2 RS. Getting +110 on a team with a massive bullpen advantage and a better xERA starter is clear value — the line implies PIT is a slight favorite despite inferior pitching and pen.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
WSN Team Total o4.5 (+104)
Will Warren is one of the worst starters by xERA in the data set — xERA 6.37, ERA 7.80, HH% 48%, and a recent ERA of 5.62. WSN's offense is elite — wRC+ 162 vs RHP (second only to LAD's LHP wRC+). WSN has been averaging 6.0 RS in Cavalli's last 5 starts. NYY's bullpen (xERA 2.79) is very good and will eventually limit damage, but Warren is likely to give up runs before they can enter. Getting WSN team total over 4.5 at +104 (plus money) captures the offensive edge vs a struggling starter without dependency on WSN's shaky bullpen or Cavalli's performance.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
CHC @ CIN o9.5 (+100)
Multiple over signals align: (1) Matthew Boyd has a massive ERA/xERA gap — ERA 1.72 vs xERA 4.39, meaning he's been lucky and the market underestimates run risk; he also has a 9.00 ERA vs CIN and at this ballpark in 1 prior start. (2) Both offenses are elite vs LHP — CHC wRC+ 139, CIN wRC+ 132. (3) CHC bullpen xERA 4.75 is well below average. (4) Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly (APF 105). (5) Boyd's HH% (49%) and Barrel% (13%) further signal contact quality against him is high. Abbott is solid (xERA 3.82, recent ERA 2.98) and limits the edge, but the Boyd side alone vs two elite offenses in a hitter-friendly park makes 9.5 at even money compelling.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
CLE F5 ML (-120)
Joey Cantillo is locked in — recent ERA 1.42, averaging 7.3 K/start, and his season ERA (1.69) aligns with xERA (3.09), suggesting genuine dominance not just luck. Tyler Phillips is a liability: xERA 6.21, HH% 56.4%, K% only 9.1%, and recent ERA 6.32 (adjusting for the bad start skew still leaves him struggling). MIA team total and F5 team total both suggest the market sees MIA scoring, but CLE's pitching edge in the first 5 is significant. Both bullpens are reasonable (CLE xERA 3.83, MIA xERA 3.79), but the F5 is the right expression since this is a starter-driven edge. -120 is within our pricing limit.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
Joey Cantillo o4.5 Ks (-160)
Cantillo is averaging 7.3 K/start in his recent 3, with a K% of 29.4%. MIA vs LHP has a K% of only 17.9% (low-K lineup), which would temper expectations somewhat. However, 4.5 is a very low line for a pitcher of his caliber — even calibrating down for MIA's contact-prone lineup, a 5-6 K expectation is reasonable and well above 4.5. The xERA of 3.09 and elite recent form confirm he's going deep. Flag: recent Ks partly came vs high-K SEA (31%) and MIN (32%) lineups, so MIA at 17.9% K% does warrant a downward adjustment — but 4.5 still feels beatable. The -160 price is at our pricing limit; include with warning.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
Line Warning: The -160 price is at the outer edge; if available, seek a better number like -140 or play the Outs Over 15.5 (+116) as a correlated but separately priced bet on Cantillo's workload.
Zack Wheeler o7.5 Ks (+102)
Wheeler is elite by every measure: xERA 1.74, K% 39.2%, recent ERA 1.48 — he's as dominant as anyone in baseball right now. His recent avg of 7.0 K/start comes partly against PIT (K% ~25%) and CIN (K% ~27%), which are strikeout-prone lineups. DET vs RHP has a K% of 22.6% — lower than recent opponents, suggesting a slight downward calibration from 7.0 to perhaps 6.5 adjusted. However, Wheeler's 39.2% K% is elite enough that even vs a contact-oriented DET lineup, his ceiling is very high. More importantly, he has 1 prior start vs DET with 10 Ks in 6 IP. The line at 7.5 at +102 is mispriced — getting plus money on a pitcher of this caliber to eclipse 7.5 Ks is strong value. His 6.2 IP/gs average and 98-104 pitch counts confirm he pitches deep enough to accumulate. The Outs line is also 17.5 at -170, confirming market expects a long outing.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
ATH @ CHW o8.5 (-114)
Noah Schultz is one of the worst pitchers in baseball by metrics — xERA 7.44, ERA 8.78, Barrel% 17.5%, BB% 12.9%, and a recent ERA of 8.18. He gives up hard contact and walks batters constantly. ATH's bullpen (xERA 5.44) is also a liability. While both offenses are average (wRC+ 96 and 93), the pitching on both sides — particularly Schultz — is poor enough that runs should flow. The CHW bullpen (xERA 2.63) is solid but they'll face a lot of work given Schultz's early exits (4.4 IP/gs). J.T. Ginn is average (xERA 4.17) and ERA << xERA suggests some luck that may not hold. 8.5 is a reasonable over target given the pitching quality.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
LAD Team Total o5.5 (-108)
Emmet Sheehan is in acute crisis — recent ERA 10.76 across 3 starts (1.1-5.0 IP range), and his home ERA this season is a catastrophic 9.76 over 3 starts. He's 5.87 ERA in 2 career starts vs ARI as well. But the key edge here is LAD's offense vs LHP: wRC+ 166 (elite) facing Mitch Bratt, who averages only 3.0 IP/gs, has a 15.4% BB%, HH% of 50%, hasn't started in 18 days, and threw only 54 pitches last time. LAD's elite LHP-offense scores early, then faces a depleted/shaky Sheehan. Both ARI bullpen (xERA 3.06) and LAD offense are strong. The 5.5 line for LAD team total feels underpriced given this pitching mismatch.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
LAD F5 ML (-220)
LAD's wRC+ 166 vs LHP is elite and Mitch Bratt is severely limited (3.0 IP/gs, 18-day layoff, 54-pitch last outing, 50% HH%, 15.4% BB%). The F5 edge is clear but -220 is well beyond our pricing rule.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
Line Warning: Avoid the F5 ML at -220; instead play LAD Team Total Over 5.5 (-108) as the better-priced expression of this offense vs a compromised starter.
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
MIL @ PIT
12:15 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Robert Gasser L
xERA3.29 (good)K%21.1 (avg)HH%30.4 (good)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA3.26IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs96BB%4.0
PIT vs LHP
wRC+104 (avg)K%21.6 (avg)HH%35.6 (avg)
Paul Skenes R
xERA3.07 (good)K%22.9 (avg)HH%43.8 (below avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA7.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs91BB%7.1
MIL vs RHP
wRC+116 (above avg)K%21.6 (avg)HH%43.3 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+110+1.5 (-195)O7.5 (-115)PIT-125-1.5 (+168)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL+112+0.5 (-138)O3.5 (-148)PIT-140-0.5 (+104)U3.5 (+114)
Team Totals
OverUnderMILO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (-106)PITO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+102)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URobert Gasser5.5 (+128 / +128)17.5 (-104 / -125)Paul Skenes6.5 (-130 / +111)17.5 (-164 / +130)
Robert Gasser · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ STLW7.29444122
Jun 29vs CINW5.29657133
Jun 21@ ATLW6.09774122
Jun 16vs CLEW5.29252200
Jun 9@ ATHL5.09378266
Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7vs ATLW6.09548122
Jul 1@ PHIL4.08156278
Jun 26vs CINL5.09676244
Jun 20@ COLL6.010484222
Jun 14vs MIAL6.0104104122
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.04.805.03.71.3(3)
home starts5.74.247.06.01.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.26 (elite)ERA 1.372d stress Normal (11.7 IP/3g)
PIT
xERA 5.17 (below avg)ERA 6.022d stress Elevated (12.3 IP/3g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
81°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph ENE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 2
  • PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.17 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • PIT bullpen elevated (12.3 IP over 3g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIL ML (+110)
MIL's bullpen is outstanding — xERA 2.26, ERA 1.37, one of the best in baseball. PIT's bullpen is the opposite: xERA 5.17, ERA 6.02, and under stress (12.3 IP over last 3g). Paul Skenes has been struggling recently (recent ERA 4.24, ERA 7.80 season, xERA 3.07 vs MIA at 4.80 ERA in 3 prior meetings). Robert Gasser is solid (xERA 3.29) though slightly struggling recently. MIL is 4-1 in Gasser's L5 starts with avg 6.2 RS. Getting +110 on a team with a massive bullpen advantage and a better xERA starter is clear value — the line implies PIT is a slight favorite despite inferior pitching and pen.
KCR @ BAL
1:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Seth Lugo R
xERA5.55 (poor)K%18.9 (avg)HH%45.5 (poor)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA9.39IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs8.3PC/gs90BB%5.4
BAL vs RHP
wRC+90 (below avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%39.7 (avg)
Shane Baz R
xERA3.37 (good)K%18.2 (avg)HH%43.6 (below avg)Barrel%5.5 (good)ERA5.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs100BB%10.4
KCR vs RHP
wRC+103 (avg)K%24.6 (below avg)HH%43.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+130+1.5 (-157)O9.5 (-105)BAL-148-1.5 (+140)U9.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+118+0.5 (-120)O5.5 (+112)BAL-148-0.5 (-108)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)BALO5.5 (+114)U4.5 (+104)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USeth Lugo5.5 (+122 / +106)15.5 (+110 / -125)Shane Baz5.5 (+128 / -137)17.5 (-172 / +146)
Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ NYMW4.19449269
Jul 1vs TBRL6.08579033
Jun 25@ TBRL5.09037277
Jun 19vs STLW6.08505312
Jun 10vs TEXL3.14423111
Shane Baz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7vs CHCL6.010036333
Jun 29vs CHWL7.010964422
Jun 23@ LAAL5.09158155
Jun 18@ SEAL7.09995233
Jun 12vs SDPW5.010316223
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Seth Lugo
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL6.50.694.53.02.5(2)
at BAL
Shane Baz
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR6.45.134.76.72.0(3)
home starts6.03.503.35.33.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.62 (below avg)ERA 3.602d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
BAL
xERA 2.62 (elite)ERA 3.462d stress Fresh (4.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph E
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
  • KCR — Seth Lugo: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • KCR bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • BAL bullpen fresh (4.3 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • BAL — Shane Baz: 2026-06-23: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling recently (Lugo 5.74 recent ERA, Baz 5.29 recent ERA) but Lugo has historically dominated BAL (0.69 ERA). Total at 9.5 is already pricing in the run risk. BAL bullpen is elite (xERA 2.62) which caps the over. No clean bet emerges.
NYY @ WSN
1:35 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Will Warren R
xERA6.37 (poor)K%14.3 (below avg)HH%48.1 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA7.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs81BB%7.1
WSN vs RHP
wRC+162 (elite)K%17.0 (above avg)HH%42.8 (above avg)
Cade Cavalli R
xERA2.29 (elite)K%36.5 (elite)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%5.6 (good)ERA2.93IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs87BB%4.8
NYY vs RHP
wRC+62 (poor)K%30.6 (poor)HH%42.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-112-1.5 (+140)O9.0 (-115)WSN-104+1.5 (-166)U9.0 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY+102+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-128)WSN-128-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYYO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)WSNO4.5 (+104)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWill Warren4.5 (-102 / -122)15.5 (-118 / -106)Cade Cavalli5.5 (+108 / -125)15.5 (-101 / -131)
Will Warren · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ TBRL4.07537266
Jul 1vs DETL5.17975022
Jun 26@ BOSL5.29007355
Jun 20vs CINL5.29088226
Jun 14@ TORW4.09818322
Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs PITL2.16336234
Jun 30@ BOSW7.0100131001
Jun 25vs PHIL6.09775122
Jun 20@ TBRW2.26816322
Jun 13vs SEAW5.08154033
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cade Cavalli
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY2.130.004.08.01.0(1)
home starts4.45.505.05.01.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 2.79 (elite)ERA 2.172d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
WSN
xERA 4.42 (avg)ERA 5.262d stress Stressed (13.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph ENE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
  • NYY — Will Warren: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • WSN bullpen stressed (13.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • NYY — Will Warren: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • WSN — Cade Cavalli: last start: 63 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • WSN — Cade Cavalli: 2026-07-05: 3 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • WSN — Cade Cavalli: low-K outing 2026-07-05 (3 Ks vs avg 7.7) — stuff was flat that day
WSN Team Total o4.5 (+104)
Will Warren is one of the worst starters by xERA in the data set — xERA 6.37, ERA 7.80, HH% 48%, and a recent ERA of 5.62. WSN's offense is elite — wRC+ 162 vs RHP (second only to LAD's LHP wRC+). WSN has been averaging 6.0 RS in Cavalli's last 5 starts. NYY's bullpen (xERA 2.79) is very good and will eventually limit damage, but Warren is likely to give up runs before they can enter. Getting WSN team total over 4.5 at +104 (plus money) captures the offensive edge vs a struggling starter without dependency on WSN's shaky bullpen or Cavalli's performance.
BOS @ NYM
1:40 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Payton Tolle L
xERA3.29 (good)K%27.7 (good)HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA3.38IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs85BB%9.2
NYM vs LHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
Zach Thornton L
xERA4.85 (below avg)K%23.8 (good)HH%51.7 (poor)Barrel%10.3 (avg)ERA4.35IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs79BB%7.1
BOS vs LHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%20.5 (avg)HH%27.1 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-120-1.5 (+136)O8.5 (+100)NYM+104+1.5 (-163)U8.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-132-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-104)NYM+106+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
OverUnderBOSO4.5 (+105)U3.5 (+118)NYMO3.5 (-122)U3.5 (-104)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPayton Tolle5.5 (-104 / -115)16.5 (-126 / +110)Zach Thornton4.5 (+109 / -132)15.5 (+128 / +120)
Payton Tolle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ CHWW6.09162100
Jul 1vs WSNL3.07657366
Jun 26vs NYYW7.08871200
Jun 21@ SEAL6.07926233
Jun 16vs TORL5.09064233
Zach Thornton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26vs PHIL6.07875111
May 20@ WSNL4.18034244
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zach Thornton
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS
home starts6.01.507.05.01.0(1)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 2.80 (elite)ERA 3.592d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
NYM
xERA 5.07 (below avg)ERA 8.882d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph NNE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 9
  • NYM — Zach Thornton: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • NYM bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.07 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • BOS bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • BOS — Payton Tolle: 2026-07-01: 6 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • BOS — Payton Tolle: recent opponents high-K: NYY 32%, WSN 29% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • NYM — Zach Thornton: 16 days since last start (2026-06-26) — may not be fully stretched out
  • NYM — Zach Thornton: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • NYM — Zach Thornton: 2026-05-20: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • NYM — Zach Thornton: recent opponents high-K: WSN 29%, PHI 34% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Payton Tolle is solid but recent K stats are inflated vs high-K opponents; NYM's bullpen is terrible (xERA 5.07) which should push the over, but the total line (8.5/8.0 split) is already pricing in the pen risk. Thornton is extended layoff with short last outing — too many unknowns on the NYM side.
CHC @ CIN
1:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Matthew Boyd L
xERA4.39 (avg)K%19.1 (avg)HH%48.9 (poor)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA1.72IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs82BB%8.8
CIN vs LHP
wRC+132 (elite)K%25.2 (below avg)HH%39.5 (avg)
Andrew Abbott L
xERA3.82 (avg)K%23.6 (good)HH%40.8 (below avg)Barrel%12.2 (below avg)ERA4.41IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs95BB%8.3
CHC vs LHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-126-1.5 (+126)O9.5 (+100)CIN+110+1.5 (-145)U9.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-124-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-135)CIN+100+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHCO4.5 (-128)U4.5 (+110)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)CINO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-135)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UMatthew Boyd5.5 (-108 / +113)Andrew Abbott4.5 (+106 / -115)
Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ BALW6.09373200
Jun 30vs SDPW5.07628033
Jun 25@ NYMW4.27644400
May 3vs ARIW6.09454122
Apr 27@ SDPL4.09148255
Andrew Abbott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7vs PHIL6.09585033
Jul 1@ MILL5.09635522
Jun 26@ PITW5.19466134
Jun 20@ NYYW5.09765311
Jun 14vs ARIL5.09554311
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Matthew Boyd
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.09.003.08.02.0(1)
at CIN4.09.003.08.02.0(1)
Andrew Abbott
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.22.313.05.32.3(3)
home starts5.73.716.04.72.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.75 (below avg)ERA 5.362d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
CIN
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 3.662d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph E
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • CHC — Matthew Boyd: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CHC — Matthew Boyd: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • CIN — Andrew Abbott: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
CHC @ CIN o9.5 (+100)
Multiple over signals align: (1) Matthew Boyd has a massive ERA/xERA gap — ERA 1.72 vs xERA 4.39, meaning he's been lucky and the market underestimates run risk; he also has a 9.00 ERA vs CIN and at this ballpark in 1 prior start. (2) Both offenses are elite vs LHP — CHC wRC+ 139, CIN wRC+ 132. (3) CHC bullpen xERA 4.75 is well below average. (4) Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly (APF 105). (5) Boyd's HH% (49%) and Barrel% (13%) further signal contact quality against him is high. Abbott is solid (xERA 3.82, recent ERA 2.98) and limits the edge, but the Boyd side alone vs two elite offenses in a hitter-friendly park makes 9.5 at even money compelling.
CLE @ MIA
1:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Joey Cantillo L
xERA3.09 (good)K%29.4 (elite)HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%2.7 (elite)ERA1.69IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs92BB%14.7
MIA vs LHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%17.9 (above avg)HH%33.8 (below avg)
Tyler Phillips R
xERA6.21 (poor)K%9.1 (poor)HH%56.4 (poor)Barrel%9.1 (avg)ERA4.02IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs80BB%6.1
CLE vs RHP
wRC+100 (avg)K%25.9 (below avg)HH%39.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-102-1.5 (+160)O8.5 (+100)MIA-114+1.5 (-187)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-120-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-108)MIA-104+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCLEO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+112)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)MIAO3.5 (-135)U3.5 (+106)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJoey Cantillo4.5 (-160 / +130)15.5 (+116 / -155)Tyler Phillips3.5 (+115 / -138)
Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ MINL5.09476302
Jul 1vs TEXW5.09343522
Jun 26vs SEAL6.09092211
Jun 20@ HOUW8.09894111
Jun 13vs DETW5.07946011
Tyler Phillips · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8vs SEAW5.07134200
Jul 3@ ATHW3.17127255
Jun 28@ STLL7.19716022
Jun 22vs TEXL6.08945322
Jun 16@ PHIL4.07946388
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Phillips
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE
home starts5.31.124.03.72.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 3.83 (avg)ERA 2.682d stress Normal (5.3 IP/2g)
MIA
xERA 3.79 (avg)ERA 6.812d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 6
  • CLE — Joey Cantillo: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • MIA — Tyler Phillips: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CLE — Joey Cantillo: recent opponents high-K: SEA 31%, MIN 32% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • MIA — Tyler Phillips: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • MIA — Tyler Phillips: 2026-07-03: 5 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent opponents high-K: ATH 28%, SEA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
CLE F5 ML (-120)
Joey Cantillo is locked in — recent ERA 1.42, averaging 7.3 K/start, and his season ERA (1.69) aligns with xERA (3.09), suggesting genuine dominance not just luck. Tyler Phillips is a liability: xERA 6.21, HH% 56.4%, K% only 9.1%, and recent ERA 6.32 (adjusting for the bad start skew still leaves him struggling). MIA team total and F5 team total both suggest the market sees MIA scoring, but CLE's pitching edge in the first 5 is significant. Both bullpens are reasonable (CLE xERA 3.83, MIA xERA 3.79), but the F5 is the right expression since this is a starter-driven edge. -120 is within our pricing limit.
Joey Cantillo o4.5 Ks (-160)
Cantillo is averaging 7.3 K/start in his recent 3, with a K% of 29.4%. MIA vs LHP has a K% of only 17.9% (low-K lineup), which would temper expectations somewhat. However, 4.5 is a very low line for a pitcher of his caliber — even calibrating down for MIA's contact-prone lineup, a 5-6 K expectation is reasonable and well above 4.5. The xERA of 3.09 and elite recent form confirm he's going deep. Flag: recent Ks partly came vs high-K SEA (31%) and MIN (32%) lineups, so MIA at 17.9% K% does warrant a downward adjustment — but 4.5 still feels beatable. The -160 price is at our pricing limit; include with warning.
PHI @ DET
1:40 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zack Wheeler R
xERA1.74 (elite)K%39.2 (elite)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%2.3 (elite)ERA2.89IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs102BB%2.7
DET vs RHP
wRC+116 (above avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
Tarik Skubal L
xERA1.97 (elite)K%42.2 (elite)HH%23.5 (elite)Barrel%14.7 (below avg)ERA3.18IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs89BB%3.1
PHI vs LHP
wRC+90 (below avg)K%33.7 (poor)HH%36.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-104-1.5 (+172)O7.5 (+102)DET-112+1.5 (-195)U7.0 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-104+0.5 (-156)O3.5 (-118)DET-120-0.5 (+120)U3.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPHIO3.5 (-108)U3.5 (-120)O1.5 (-105)U1.5 (-125)DETO3.5 (-104)U3.5 (-120)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZack Wheeler7.5 (+102 / -103)17.5 (-170 / +140)Tarik Skubal7.5 (-110 / -113)17.5 (-167 / +126)
Zack Wheeler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ CINW7.0104144011
Jul 1vs PITW4.2104109144
Jun 26@ NYMW7.09854111
Jun 21vs NYMW5.210474322
Jun 15vs MIAW6.09792300
Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7vs ATHW5.09695211
Jun 30@ NYYW6.08791012
Jun 24vs NYYL6.08594044
Jun 19vs CHWW5.29487133
Jun 13@ CLEL4.28045123
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zack Wheeler
IPERAKHBB
vs DET6.04.5010.09.00.0(1)
at DET
Tarik Skubal
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI7.03.8610.05.00.0(1)
home starts5.44.448.75.31.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 4.54 (below avg)ERA 8.262d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
DET
xERA 3.23 (good)ERA 4.382d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph ENE
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
  • DET — Tarik Skubal: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • PHI — Zack Wheeler: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • PHI — Zack Wheeler: 2026-07-01: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • PHI — Zack Wheeler: recent opponents high-K: PIT 25%, CIN 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • DET — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: NYY 32%, NYY 32%, ATH 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
Zack Wheeler o7.5 Ks (+102)
Wheeler is elite by every measure: xERA 1.74, K% 39.2%, recent ERA 1.48 — he's as dominant as anyone in baseball right now. His recent avg of 7.0 K/start comes partly against PIT (K% ~25%) and CIN (K% ~27%), which are strikeout-prone lineups. DET vs RHP has a K% of 22.6% — lower than recent opponents, suggesting a slight downward calibration from 7.0 to perhaps 6.5 adjusted. However, Wheeler's 39.2% K% is elite enough that even vs a contact-oriented DET lineup, his ceiling is very high. More importantly, he has 1 prior start vs DET with 10 Ks in 6 IP. The line at 7.5 at +102 is mispriced — getting plus money on a pitcher of this caliber to eclipse 7.5 Ks is strong value. His 6.2 IP/gs average and 98-104 pitch counts confirm he pitches deep enough to accumulate. The Outs line is also 17.5 at -170, confirming market expects a long outing.
SEA @ TBR
1:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Emerson Hancock R
xERA3.26 (good)K%23.9 (good)HH%38.3 (avg)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs89BB%9.9
TBR vs RHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%19.9 (above avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Ian Seymour L
xERA1.94 (elite)K%41.5 (elite)HH%30.6 (good)Barrel%5.6 (good)ERA2.00IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs89BB%3.1
SEA vs LHP
wRC+105 (avg)K%30.6 (poor)HH%32.6 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+113+1.5 (-188)O8.0 (-102)TBR-130-1.5 (+160)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+106+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (-154)TBR-132-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (+118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USEAO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (-106)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)TBRO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+114)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEmerson Hancock4.5 (+124 / -156)15.5 (+105 / -107)Ian Seymour5.5 (-128 / +110)15.5 (+141 / -190)
Emerson Hancock · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs TORW7.09252200
Jun 28@ CLEL5.29865311
Jun 20vs BOSL5.17664255
Jun 14@ WSNL4.05929066
Jun 8@ BALW5.09233211
Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7vs NYYW5.194125033
Jul 2@ KCRW6.08383111
Jun 25vs KCRW6.2*9070100
Jun 20vs WSNL5.08147033
Jun 14@ LAAW3.1*7232322
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ian Seymour
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA
home starts5.05.358.06.00.0(2)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.18 (avg)ERA 3.862d stress Fresh (4.3 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 3.33 (good)ERA 3.672d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Dome
Dome
Flags · 4
  • SEA bullpen fresh (4.3 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • SEA — Emerson Hancock: 2026-06-20: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-25, 2026-06-14 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • TBR — Ian Seymour: recent opponents high-K: WSN 29%, NYY 32% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling recently — Hancock recent ERA 7.66, Seymour recent ERA 5.40. But both have good underlying xERAs (3.26 and 1.94) suggesting regression to the mean, not continued struggles. Total at 7.5-8.0 feels fairly priced. SEA bullpen is fresh, adding uncertainty about Hancock's workload. No clean lean.
ATH @ CHW
2:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
J.T. Ginn R
xERA4.17 (avg)K%18.8 (avg)HH%27.7 (elite)Barrel%10.6 (avg)ERA3.38IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs85BB%11.6
CHW vs RHP
wRC+93 (below avg)K%21.2 (avg)HH%40.6 (above avg)
Noah Schultz L
xERA7.44 (poor)K%17.7 (avg)HH%35.0 (good)Barrel%17.5 (poor)ERA8.78IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs83BB%12.9
ATH vs LHP
wRC+96 (avg)K%26.2 (below avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH-102-1.5 (+165)O8.5 (-114)CHW-115+1.5 (-180)U8.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH-112+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (-118)CHW-112-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATHO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)CHWO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJ.T. Ginn4.5 (+102 / -119)16.5 (-115 / -115)Noah Schultz4.5 (+112 / -128)15.5 (+110 / -146)
J.T. Ginn · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ DETL4.06142222
Jul 1vs LADW6.010443511
Jun 26@ LAAW6.08958133
Jun 20vs LAAL5.19856334
Jun 15vs PITW6.09836201
Noah Schultz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7vs BOSL5.09237344
Jul 1@ BALL4.18772433
May 24@ SFGL4.07016166
May 18@ SEAL5.19165033
May 13vs KCRW4.17632533
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Schultz
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH5.01.806.01.01.0(1)
home starts5.05.364.74.34.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 5.44 (poor)ERA 7.092d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
CHW
xERA 2.63 (elite)ERA 2.472d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 6
  • CHW — Noah Schultz: Barrel% 18% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • CHW — Noah Schultz: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.44 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • ATH bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CHW bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • ATH — J.T. Ginn: last start: 61 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
ATH @ CHW o8.5 (-114)
Noah Schultz is one of the worst pitchers in baseball by metrics — xERA 7.44, ERA 8.78, Barrel% 17.5%, BB% 12.9%, and a recent ERA of 8.18. He gives up hard contact and walks batters constantly. ATH's bullpen (xERA 5.44) is also a liability. While both offenses are average (wRC+ 96 and 93), the pitching on both sides — particularly Schultz — is poor enough that runs should flow. The CHW bullpen (xERA 2.63) is solid but they'll face a lot of work given Schultz's early exits (4.4 IP/gs). J.T. Ginn is average (xERA 4.17) and ERA << xERA suggests some luck that may not hold. 8.5 is a reasonable over target given the pitching quality.
LAA @ MIN
2:10 PM · Target FieldHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jose Soriano R
xERA3.96 (avg)K%27.4 (good)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%7.7 (good)ERA6.43IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs84BB%8.1
MIN vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%19.5 (above avg)HH%39.7 (avg)
Taj Bradley R
xERA1.93 (elite)K%38.9 (elite)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%7.9 (good)ERA1.89IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs99BB%8.3
LAA vs RHP
wRC+73 (poor)K%24.3 (below avg)HH%35.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+115+1.5 (-180)O9.0 (+101)MIN-132-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+106+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-110)MIN-132-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULAAO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-145)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)MINO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJose Soriano5.5 (+122 / -137)15.5 (-120 / -111)Taj Bradley6.5 (-115 / +100)17.5 (-170 / +127)
Jose Soriano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ TEXL6.09342222
Jun 30@ SEAL5.09196133
Jun 24vs BALW3.06946255
Jun 19@ ATHL5.010566434
Jun 13vs TBRW5.07653200
Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7vs CLEW7.0101103011
Jul 1@ HOUW5.097114311
Jun 26vs COLW7.09973322
Jun 20@ ARIW5.09143222
Jun 14vs STLW6.210175144
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jose Soriano
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN5.05.404.05.01.0(1)
at MIN5.05.404.05.01.0(1)
Taj Bradley
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.14.435.04.02.0(1)
home starts6.73.128.03.71.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.84 (avg)ERA 4.842d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
MIN
xERA 4.01 (avg)ERA 3.822d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • LAA — Jose Soriano: 2026-06-24: 5 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • MIN — Taj Bradley: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
AI Analysis
Taj Bradley is elite (xERA 1.93) but had 101-pitch count last start and is on a shorter leash; recent ERA 3.96 shows some struggle. Jose Soriano is average and struggling vs MIN. MIN is hitter-friendly (APF 108) favoring the over but the total at 9.0 already reflects that. Bradley's quality keeps a lid on it — no strong edge materializes.
ATL @ STL
2:15 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
JR Ritchie R
xERA4.01 (avg)K%26.1 (good)HH%34.6 (good)Barrel%11.5 (below avg)ERA4.82IP/gs9.3 IP/gsH/gs10.0PC/gs60BB%15.2
STL vs RHP
wRC+74 (poor)K%21.5 (avg)HH%42.4 (above avg)
Dustin May R
xERA6.56 (poor)K%25.0 (good)HH%48.1 (poor)Barrel%7.4 (good)ERA13.50IP/gs2.4 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs53BB%7.5
ATL vs RHP
wRC+123 (above avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%37.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL+113+1.5 (-181)O8.5 (+100)STL-130-1.5 (+164)U8.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL+122+0.5 (-118)O4.5 (-118)STL-152-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderATLO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+106)STLO4.5 (+120)U4.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJR Ritchie2.5 (-166 / +135)Dustin May4.5 (-127 / +100)16.5 (-113 / -117)
JR Ritchie · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 9@ PITW1.1*3512211
Jul 4vs NYMW3.0*4643100
Jun 23@ SDPL5.09875445
Jun 17vs SFGL5.09045355
Jun 12@ NYML5.0*7352200
Dustin May · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 6vs MILL4.28174000
Jul 2@ ATLW0.23415255
Jun 21@ KCRW2.04426166
Jun 15vs SDPW9.010191100
Jun 9@ NYMW6.010164100
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dustin May
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL3.57.794.33.72.3(3)
home starts6.11.478.33.31.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 5.222d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
STL
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 3.882d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
86°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 7 mph NNE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 8
  • ATL — JR Ritchie: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • STL — Dustin May: small sample (7.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • STL — Dustin May: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • STL — Dustin May: avg 2.4 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
  • ATL bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • STL bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • ATL — JR Ritchie: 19 days since last start (2026-06-23) — may not be fully stretched out
  • ATL — JR Ritchie: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-09, 2026-07-04 — may affect pitch count or availability
AI Analysis
Dustin May's xERA (6.56) is poor but recent ERA (3.18) is hot — small sample of 7.1 IP makes it unreliable; JR Ritchie is struggling recently (8.10 ERA) but STL is a cold offense (wRC+ 74). Conflicting signals and no clean edge on either side or the total.
HOU @ TEX
2:35 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Cristian Javier R
xERA5.84 (poor)K%23.8 (good)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA4.50IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs30BB%14.3
TEX vs RHP
wRC+78 (poor)K%21.8 (avg)HH%39.4 (avg)
MacKenzie Gore
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
HOU
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+116+1.5 (-178)O8.5 (-105)TEX-130-1.5 (+155)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU+122+0.5 (-118)O4.5 (-125)TEX-152-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-104)
Team Totals
OverUnderHOUO3.5 (-135)U3.5 (+106)TEXO4.5 (+105)U4.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UCristian Javier3.5 (+103 / -125)MacKenzie Gore4.5 (-120 / +110)
Cristian Javier · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8@ WSNL1.0*3001200
Jul 4vs TBRW2.0*3942111
Apr 8@ COLL1.02013011
Apr 3@ ATHL3.28226566
Mar 28vs LAAW4.27414466
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cristian Javier
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX6.03.004.05.01.0(1)
at TEX
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 2.63 (elite)ERA 2.842d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
TEX
xERA 4.08 (avg)ERA 5.102d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 7
  • HOU — Cristian Javier: small sample (4.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • HOU — Cristian Javier: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • HOU — Cristian Javier: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • HOU — Cristian Javier: 95 days since last start (2026-04-08) — may not be fully stretched out
  • HOU — Cristian Javier: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-08, 2026-07-04 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • HOU — Cristian Javier: last start: 20 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
MacKenzie Gore is a 'NO STATS' first-time starter — automatic disqualifier for any bet dependent on TEX pitching. Cristian Javier is acutely struggling (recent ERA 13.93, 95-day layoff, recent bullpen appearances). Both sides are disqualified or too uncertain.
COL @ SFG
4:05 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael Lorenzen R
xERA3.91 (avg)K%9.3 (poor)HH%41.4 (below avg)Barrel%6.9 (good)ERA4.50IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs94BB%12.0
SFG vs RHP
wRC+117 (above avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
Trevor McDonald R
xERA2.55 (elite)K%13.1 (below avg)HH%31.4 (good)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA7.24IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs79BB%3.3
COL vs RHP
wRC+131 (elite)K%18.9 (above avg)HH%35.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+122+1.5 (-171)O8.5 (-117)SFG-144-1.5 (+150)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+116+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (-122)SFG-145-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCOLO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+112)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)SFGO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Lorenzen3.5 (-140 / +119)16.5 (-117 / -114)Trevor McDonald4.5 (+102 / -125)15.5 (+100 / -132)
Michael Lorenzen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ LADW6.09556323
Jul 2vs MIAW4.19513624
Jun 27@ MINW5.29217022
Jun 21vs PITL5.19057144
Jun 15@ CHCL5.08955111
Trevor McDonald · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7vs TORL2.158011188
Jul 1@ ARIW6.09051000
Jun 26vs ATLL5.19037133
Jun 20@ MIAL3.06913335
Jun 13vs CHCL3.29246344
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Lorenzen
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG3.76.083.56.01.5(2)
at SFG4.24.295.07.01.0(1)
Trevor McDonald
IPERAKHBB
vs COL7.00.0010.04.00.0(1)
home starts3.512.982.38.01.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.74 (below avg)ERA 4.372d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
SFG
xERA 2.76 (elite)ERA 5.832d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph WSW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 3
  • COL — Michael Lorenzen: recent opponents low-K: MIA 16%, LAD 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
  • SFG — Trevor McDonald: last start: 58 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • SFG — Trevor McDonald: 2026-07-07: 8 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 34) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Trevor McDonald has a massive ERA/xERA gap (7.24 ERA vs 2.55 xERA) — he's been unlucky but also genuinely struggling recently (7.96 recent ERA, multiple short outings). COL offense is elite (wRC+ 131) but SFG bullpen (xERA 2.76) will limit damage. Conflicting signals; Oracle Park (APF 99) is pitcher-friendly. No clear edge.
ARI @ LAD
4:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mitch Bratt L
xERA3.01 (good)K%23.1 (good)HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.00IP/gs3.0 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs54BB%15.4
LAD vs LHP
wRC+166 (elite)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%44.0 (above avg)
Emmet Sheehan R
xERA3.99 (avg)K%23.3 (good)HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%8.1 (avg)ERA5.68IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs87BB%13.3
ARI vs RHP
wRC+70 (poor)K%20.2 (avg)HH%33.1 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+188+1.5 (-105)O9.5 (-105)LAD-220-1.5 (-105)U9.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+172+1.5 (-140)O5.5 (-108)LAD-220-1.5 (+108)U5.5 (-120)
Team Totals
OverUnderARIO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+104)LADO5.5 (-108)U5.5 (-118)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMitch BrattEmmet Sheehan5.5 (-102 / -104)15.5 (-107 / -124)
Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ STLW3.05432211
Emmet Sheehan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs SDPL4.19653311
Jun 28@ SDPW5.08452211
Jun 21vs BALL3.18248366
Jun 14@ CHWL5.08584133
Jun 7vs LAAL1.14923222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Emmet Sheehan
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI4.65.874.54.01.0(2)
home starts2.89.763.74.72.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.06 (good)ERA 3.122d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
LAD
xERA 3.15 (good)ERA 3.862d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
  • ARI — Mitch Bratt: small sample (3.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • ARI — Mitch Bratt: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • ARI — Mitch Bratt: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • ARI — Mitch Bratt: avg 3.0 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
  • LAD — Emmet Sheehan: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • LAD bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • ARI — Mitch Bratt: 18 days since last start (2026-06-24) — may not be fully stretched out
  • ARI — Mitch Bratt: last start: 54 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • LAD — Emmet Sheehan: 2026-06-21: 6 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
LAD Team Total o5.5 (-108)
Emmet Sheehan is in acute crisis — recent ERA 10.76 across 3 starts (1.1-5.0 IP range), and his home ERA this season is a catastrophic 9.76 over 3 starts. He's 5.87 ERA in 2 career starts vs ARI as well. But the key edge here is LAD's offense vs LHP: wRC+ 166 (elite) facing Mitch Bratt, who averages only 3.0 IP/gs, has a 15.4% BB%, HH% of 50%, hasn't started in 18 days, and threw only 54 pitches last time. LAD's elite LHP-offense scores early, then faces a depleted/shaky Sheehan. Both ARI bullpen (xERA 3.06) and LAD offense are strong. The 5.5 line for LAD team total feels underpriced given this pitching mismatch.
LAD F5 ML (-220)
LAD's wRC+ 166 vs LHP is elite and Mitch Bratt is severely limited (3.0 IP/gs, 18-day layoff, 54-pitch last outing, 50% HH%, 15.4% BB%). The F5 edge is clear but -220 is well beyond our pricing rule.
TOR @ SDP
4:10 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kevin Gausman R
xERA5.26 (poor)K%24.1 (good)HH%58.8 (poor)Barrel%13.7 (below avg)ERA5.71IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs96BB%11.4
SDP vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)HH%34.2 (below avg)
German Marquez R
xERA5.64 (poor)K%12.5 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)Barrel%7.9 (good)ERA6.23IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs78BB%19.6
TOR vs RHP
wRC+61 (poor)K%21.0 (avg)HH%30.2 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-125-1.5 (+135)O8.5 (+100)SDP+108+1.5 (-158)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-148-0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-115)SDP+118+0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-113)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTORO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)SDPO3.5 (-118)U3.5 (-105)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKevin Gausman5.5 (-104 / -115)17.5 (-146 / +130)German Marquez3.5 (+121 / +132)14.5 (-157 / +118)
Kevin Gausman · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 6@ SFGL5.19285547
Jun 30vs NYML6.09675211
Jun 25vs TEXL6.099410266
Jun 19@ CHCL2.06837477
Jun 13vs NYYL7.010571211
German Marquez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7vs ARIW5.08243301
Jul 2@ LADL3.0*5612322
May 1vs CHWL5.09525577
Apr 25@ ARIW6.07526144
Apr 18@ LAAW5.28852200
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kevin Gausman
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP7.00.009.03.00.0(1)
at SDP
German Marquez
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR
home starts5.06.603.74.03.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.01 (good)ERA 3.832d stress Elevated (10.7 IP/2g)
SDP
xERA 3.53 (good)ERA 6.702d stress Stressed (11.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 8
  • TOR — Kevin Gausman: HH% 59% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • TOR — Kevin Gausman: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • SDP — German Marquez: BB% 20% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • TOR bullpen elevated (10.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SDP bullpen stressed (11.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • TOR — Kevin Gausman: 2026-06-25: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • SDP — German Marquez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-02 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • SDP — German Marquez: 2026-05-01: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Kevin Gausman is in terrible form (recent ERA 8.40, xERA 5.26, HH% 59%) but TOR's offense is ice cold (wRC+ 61 vs RHP). German Marquez has command issues (BB% 19.6%) and poor xERA (5.64). The offenses are both weak enough to keep the total in check despite two bad starters. No dominant edge on either side or total.