AI Picks · 17 Bets · Aug 2
BOS @ LAD u8.5 (-112)
Multiple under signals converge: (1) Jake Bennett is historically HOT right now — recent ERA 0.89 over last 3 starts, far below his already-solid xERA of 3.15, showing elite current form. (2) Sheehan's xERA is elite at 2.82, and his recent ERA of 2.54 (excluding the fluky 6-ER outlier which skews his 3-game number) reflects genuine dominance — Season ERA 5.17 >> xERA 2.82 signals he's been unlucky all season and market is likely overestimating run risk. (3) Both offenses are cold in L12: BOS wRC+ 86 vs RHP, LAD wRC+ 88 vs LHP — neither lineup is hot. (4) Both teams are scoring modestly in these starters' recent outings: LAD averaging only 3.2 RS at home in Sheehan's starts, BOS averaging 4.0 RS away. (5) Bennett has no park/opponent history here, but his mechanics and form suggest dominance will travel. The 8.5 total feels generous given two pitchers both performing well right now and two cold offenses. LAD's bullpen is stressed but both starters project to go deep, limiting bullpen exposure.
Found at 4:48 PM ET
Emmet Sheehan Ks o5.5 (-130)
Sheehan's K% is elite at 26.9% and he's averaging 5.7 K/start over his last 3. However, the key calibration: his recent Ks came against PHI (27% K%) and NYM (28% K%) — very high-K lineups. BOS vs RHP sits at 22.6% K%, which is below those opponents but still above league average. Adjusting down slightly from 5.7 avg, the calibrated expectation lands around 5.0–5.5 Ks, putting this right at the line. The LAD bullpen stress flag also means the manager may lean on Sheehan for extra innings, providing more K opportunities. The Outs line at 16.5 (≈5.5 IP) is modest — if he goes deeper as flagged, K accumulation improves. This is marginal given the opponent calibration adjustment, hence medium confidence. The -130 price is the primary concern and triggers the warning.
Found at 4:48 PM ET
Line Warning: Look for Sheehan Over 4.5 Ks at a better price if available, or pass if -130 feels too steep.
Jake Bennett Outs o16.5 (-105)
Bennett is on a clear ascending workload trajectory: 6.0 IP (65 pitches) → 7.0 IP (81 pitches) → 7.2 IP (92 pitches). He is clearly building up in terms of both innings and pitch count. Over 16.5 outs = 5.2+ IP, an extremely low bar given he's averaged 6.7 IP and 79 pitches over his last 3 starts with no outing below 6.0 IP. The BOS bullpen stress flag (only 4.3 IP in relief over the last game) means the manager has strong incentive to let Bennett work deep. He faces a cold LAD lineup (wRC+ 88 vs LHP) and has strong walk suppression (BB% 4.0). At -105 juice, this is excellent value for a pitcher who hasn't exited before 6 innings in 3 straight starts.
Found at 4:48 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
Zack Wheeler o7.5 Ks (-111)
Wheeler is an elite strikeout pitcher (K% 39.7, xERA 2.25) averaging 11.3 K/start over his last 3 outings. BAL's lineup has a K% of 23.3% vs RHP which is solidly above average and favorable for Wheeler. Even adjusting the 11.3 recent K average down slightly for a BAL lineup that strikes out less than DET/CIN (his recent opponents), an 8-10 K range is very plausible. The -111 line at 7.5 implies roughly 52% hit rate, which undervalues a pitcher with 39.7% K rate against a lineup with above-average K tendencies. Note the concern about his last start being only 68 pitches (possible injury/hook), but the prior two starts were 96 and 104 pitches suggesting that was an anomaly. BAL bullpen xERA is elite (1.96), meaning PHI won't score much — Wheeler may go deeper to protect the game. One caution: PHI's fresh bullpen flag (2.0 IP over 1g) could mean an early hook. Still, the K rate edge is large enough to recommend at -111.
Found at 10:54 AM ET
STL F5 ML -124 (-124)
Max Scherzer is in acute collapse: recent ERA 15.00, averaging only 2.8 IP/gs, 8 ER in 2.1 IP last start, Barrel% 16%, BB% 18% — every signal screams disaster. Liberatore is HOT (recent ERA 2.25, xERA 3.15) and gets a TOR lineup that is wRC+ 65 vs LHP — one of the coldest splits in today's slate. This is a pure pitching mismatch in the first 5. We avoid full-game due to STL's shaky bullpen (xERA 4.24) and 49% rain risk which could cut the game short, making the F5 the cleanest expression of this edge. Line at -124 is just inside the pricing threshold.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
STL Team Total o2.5 (+110)
Max Scherzer is historically bad right now: recent ERA 15.00, xERA 5.07, Barrel% 16%, BB% 18%, averaging only 2.8 IP/gs. His last 3 starts: 2.1 IP/8 ER, 2.1 IP/7 ER in two of them. He cannot get through 5 innings without massive damage. STL's wRC+ vs RHP sits at 78 (poor) but that is irrelevant here — you don't need a great offense to score 3+ runs off a pitcher giving up 8 ER in 2.1 IP. Scherzer averages 2.8 IP/gs, so even if STL faces relievers early, Scherzer's lack of command (BB% 18%) and extreme barrel rate means traffic and runs in the first innings. Getting STL F5 Over 2.5 at +110 is free money given Scherzer's near-certain early implosion.
Found at 10:54 AM ET
STL @ TOR F5 o5.5 (+108)
Both sides of this F5 have run-scoring pressure. Scherzer is an active disaster (recent ERA 15.00, xERA 5.07, BB% 18%, Barrel% 16%, avg 2.8 IP/gs) and cannot be trusted to stop runs. Liberatore has a recent ERA of 2.25 and is pitching well, BUT his HH% is 49% and he had a short 67-pitch outing last start raising concern about stretch. Even with Liberatore competent, Scherzer will almost certainly surrender 3+ runs in the first 5. A combined 5.5 at +108 is a solid price given the near-certainty of runs from the Scherzer side alone — two half-decent offensive teams, one complete disaster of a starter.
Found at 10:54 AM ET
MIA F5 ML -132 (-132)
Robert Stock is a NO STATS first-time starter — a hard disqualifier for betting against MIA here. Sandy Alcantara is HOT (recent ERA 2.14, 8.0 IP in last start) with an excellent history at Citi Field (1.29 ERA in 1gs) and solid history vs NYM (2.37 ERA, 3gs). MIA offense is wRC+ 115 in L12. NYM bullpen is elite (xERA 1.81) so full-game ML is tempting, but MIA's own pen is shaky (xERA 4.40). The F5 cleanly isolates the Alcantara vs. unknown starter edge, avoiding MIA bullpen exposure. -132 is within pricing limits.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
Gavin Williams K o7.5 (+123) (+123)
Williams has an absurd 47.2 K% (elite) and averages 9.3 K/start in recent outings. Today he faces ARI which has a K% of only 15.3 vs RHP — a contact-oriented lineup, which will temper expectations somewhat vs high-K recent opponents. However, Williams' elite K rate is so dominant that even calibrating down for ARI's lower K% (from PIT 25%/MIN high-K to ARI 15%), he still projects around 7-8 Ks. The line at 7.5 at +123 offers genuine value given his 9.3 avg. The recent ERA spike was one bad start (flagged as outlier) and his Outs line is 18.5 — the market expects him to pitch deep, meaning enough innings to rack up Ks. The flag about high-K recent opponents is noted, but his raw K% at 47.2% is so far above the field that even vs a contact team he comfortably threatens this number.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
NYM Team Total u3.5 (+114)
Sandy Alcantara is hot (recent ERA 2.14, xERA 3.58), going deep (avg 6.7 IP/gs), and has an excellent track record vs NYM specifically: 2.37 ERA over 3 starts, including 1.29 ERA at this very park. NYM's offense is cold in L12 (wRC+ 82) and they strike out at 27.5% vs RHP. NYM bullpen is elite (xERA 1.85) which matters for MIA's side but NYM's own offense vs this pitcher is the bet. Getting NYM Under 3.5 at +114 is a plus-money under with strong pitcher dominance signals and favorable matchup history.
Found at 10:54 AM ET
HOU F5 ML -124 (-124)
Peter Lambert is blazing hot (recent ERA 1.05 over 3 starts, avg 7.7 K/start) with a 1.57 ERA at home and decent history vs TEX (4.50 ERA, 2gs — manageable). Kumar Rocker has a 9.71 ERA in 2 career starts vs HOU specifically and is struggling (recent ERA 5.88). HOU offense is wRC+ 125 in L12 and is 9-1 L10 overall. TEX bullpen is shaky (xERA 3.87, ERA 5.36) but the F5 limits that exposure. HOU bullpen is strong (xERA 3.13). The compound edge of elite recent pitching + hot offense + terrible Rocker history at this park makes the F5 line of -124 acceptable value.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
TEX Team Total u4.5 (-145)
Lambert's recent ERA of 1.05 with a home ERA of 1.57 (3gs) and a strong HOU bullpen (xERA 3.13) creates a strong suppression case for TEX scoring. TEX is wRC+ 113 vs RHP but that's a moderate offense facing a pitcher in peak form. TEX averages only 4.0 RS in away starts in their last 5 with this pitcher. The under 4.5 at -145 is at the pricing limit but justifiable given the compounding factors — Lambert's form + HOU bullpen + roof closed (neutral, no wind help).
Found at 5:33 AM ET
Line Warning: If -145 is too steep, try TEX F5 Team Total Under 2.5 (-166) — too expensive; instead look for live under opportunities if TEX scores early.
HOU Team Total o4.5 (+100)
HOU offense is elite in L12 (wRC+ 135) and they face Kumar Rocker who is clearly struggling: recent ERA 5.88, and his matchup history vs HOU is a brutal 9.71 ERA over 2 starts. Lambert has been brilliant (recent ERA 1.05) but that's on the pitching side — we're expressing HOU's offensive edge vs Rocker here. TEX bullpen xERA is 3.71, not a shutdown pen. HOU averaging 4.2 RS in Lambert's L5 starts but that's the context of their starter being elite; vs the opposing weak starter, they should score more. Getting HOU Over 4.5 at even money (+100) has good value given elite offense vs a visibly struggling pitcher with a terrible head-to-head history.
Found at 10:54 AM ET
NYY @ CHC u6.5 (-105)
Both offenses are cold or below average: NYY wRC+ 61 (poor, L12) and CHC wRC+ 112 but Cole has held lineups to limited run support recently. Cole's recent ERA (3.68) is higher than his xERA (2.58) suggesting some bad luck masking true quality. Both bullpens are solid (NYY xERA 3.56, CHC xERA 3.81). Wind blowing IN at 16mph at Wrigley suppresses run scoring and home runs significantly. NYY averaging only 2.4 RS in Cole's L5 starts, CHC scoring 9.0 but that's from Colin Rea's team — the offense that shows up in Rea's starts is not necessarily the same as what Cole will allow. Two functional starters, solid pens, pitcher-friendly wind, cold NYY offense. Under 6.5 at -105 is a fair price.
Found at 10:54 AM ET
KCR @ COL o12.0 (-115)
Coors Field (APF 117) is the most offense-friendly park in baseball. Both starters are struggling: Lugo has recent ERA 5.74 and Freeland 6.75 (both ↓ STRUGGLING). Both bullpens are among the worst in today's slate — KCR xERA 5.13, COL xERA 4.82. Freeland has a 6.35 ERA at home in recent starts. KCR averages 6.0-6.4 RS in recent away starts. Even at 12.0, the Coors multiplier plus two struggling pitchers and two bad pens makes this a legitimate over. Market has it at 12.0 which is already elevated but these conditions justify it — both starters project to allow 4-6 runs each.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
J. Misiorowski o9.5 Ks (+106)
Misiorowski has a freakish xERA of 1.21 and K% of 49.1 — elite strikeout stuff. He's averaging 9.7 K/start over his last 3 outings (11K, 10K, 8K). The caution flag notes his recent opponents (NYM 28%, COL 27%) were high-K lineups. Today's LAA lineup has K% of 24.4% vs RHP — still above average and favorable for a high-K pitcher. Calibrating: recent 9.7 avg vs high-K opponents, vs a 24.4% K team (roughly league average) I'd project ~8.5-9.5 Ks. The line is 9.5 at +106 (plus money). This is marginal but getting plus money on a pitcher averaging 9.7/start against a lineup that still strikes out at a decent rate is value. He goes 5.3 IP/gs average, so he's getting ~16 outs, and with a 49% K rate that's ~7.8 Ks from his typical workload — BUT the recent 3 starts averaged 9.7 with deeper outings (7.0, 5.0, 6.0 IP). The park (APF 104) is slightly hitter-friendly but irrelevant for K props. Getting +106 on a pitcher with this K profile is the edge.
Found at 10:54 AM ET
SDP Team Total o4.5 (+110)
SDP offense is wRC+ 166 (elite) in L12 — the hottest lineup in today's slate by a wide margin. Landen Roupp has a brutal history at Petco (6.64 ERA in 3gs at this park) and has a recent blow-up start. Even adjusting for that skew, his xERA is 3.85 and he allows hard contact. SFG bullpen is average (xERA 3.85). SDP bullpen is elite (xERA 1.92), protecting a lead. SDP is 7-3 home L10 and 4-1 home in King's last 5 starts. Getting +110 on a historically elite recent offense at home vs a pitcher who struggles here is clear value.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
WSN @ 
ATL1:35 PM · Truist Park
WSN @ ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Cade Cavalli R
xERA2.91 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)HH%45.6 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA2.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs93BB%5.7
ATL vs RHP
wRC+104 (avg)K%23.6 (avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
JR Ritchie R
xERA4.28 (avg)K%19.4 (avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA4.00IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs57BB%13.9
WSN vs RHP
wRC+142 (elite)K%18.2 (above avg)HH%39.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+110-1.5 (+176)O9.0 (+100)ATL-120-1.5 (+159)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN-105——ATL-125——
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)ATLO4.5 (-110)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCade Cavalli4.5 (-140 / +117)17.5 (-101 / -132)JR Ritchie——
Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ L6.09036123
L6.09036123Jul 28vs 
W6.09836223
W6.09836223Jul 22@ 
W6.09084200
W6.09084200Jul 17@ 
W6.09594022
W6.09594022Jul 12vs 
L6.08554122
L6.08554122JR Ritchie · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs W4.08144322
W4.08144322Jul 21vs 
L3.2*6843333
L3.2*6843333Jul 18vs 
L1.0*2211000
L1.0*2211000Jul 12@ 
W4.1*6121211
W4.1*6121211Jul 9@ 
W1.1*3512211
W1.1*3512211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cade Cavalli
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.53.276.56.50.5(2)
at ATL6.03.003.06.01.0(1)
JR Ritchie
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.53.275.54.52.5(2)
home starts4.04.504.04.03.0(1)
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-8 vs ATL this season (11 games).
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN have lost 4 straight.
- WSN are 3-2 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 4-1 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 9.4 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 8.8 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 8-3 vs WSN this season (11 games).
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL have won 4 straight.
- ATL are 1-4 in JR Ritchie's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-1 in JR Ritchie's last 3 home starts.
- ATL average 3.8 runs/game in JR Ritchie's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.3 runs/game in JR Ritchie's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 3.022d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 4.29 (avg)ERA 5.932d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Flags · 6
- WSN — Cade Cavalli: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ATL — JR Ritchie: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ATL — JR Ritchie: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- WSN — Cade Cavalli: recent opponents low-K: ATH 17%, TOR 13% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- ATL — JR Ritchie: 40 days since last start (2026-06-23) — may not be fully stretched out
- ATL — JR Ritchie: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-21, 2026-07-18 — may affect pitch count or availability
PHI @ 
BAL✓1:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsRainy
PHI @ BAL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zack Wheeler R
xERA2.25 (elite)K%39.7 (elite)HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA3.94IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs64BB%4.8
BAL vs RHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%23.3 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)
Kyle Bradish R
xERA4.08 (avg)K%18.1 (avg)HH%44.4 (below avg)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs78BB%5.6
PHI vs RHP
wRC+78 (poor)K%27.4 (below avg)HH%44.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-1450-4.5 (-112)O9.5 (+116)BAL+1100+4.5 (+102)U8.5 (+105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-140-0.5 (+100)O4.5 (+106)BAL+116+0.5 (-130)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPHIO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-135)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)BALO3.5 (-104)U3.5 (-122)O1.5 (-120)U1.5 (-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UZack Wheeler7.5 (-111 / -101)Kyle Bradish5.5 (-106 / -104)
Zack Wheeler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ W2.03231000
W2.03231000Jul 27@ 
L3.06866155
L3.06866155Jul 21vs 
L7.09395022
L7.09395022Jul 12@ 
W6.096102200
W6.096102200Jul 7@ 
W7.0104144011
W7.0104144011Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs L3.05332222
L3.05332222Jul 27@ W4.293410155
W4.293410155Jul 22@ 
W6.08944111
W6.08944111Jul 11vs 
W6.29652211
W6.29652211Jul 5@ L7.210655133
L7.210655133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zack Wheeler
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL2.00.003.01.00.0(1)
at BAL2.00.003.01.00.0(1)
Kyle Bradish
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI3.06.003.02.02.0(1)
home starts4.44.093.31.73.0(3)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 1-1 vs BAL this season (2 games).
- PHI are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 5.4 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 4.0 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 1-1 vs PHI this season (2 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 5.0 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 7.0 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 4.09 (avg)ERA 4.872d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 1.96 (elite)ERA 3.022d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
84°F, Overcast, Wind 12 mph SSE
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (20%)
Flags · 6
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PHI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PHI — Zack Wheeler: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PHI — Zack Wheeler: 2026-07-27: 5 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: 2026-07-27: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: rain risk 20% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
Zack Wheeler o7.5 Ks (-111)
Wheeler is an elite strikeout pitcher (K% 39.7, xERA 2.25) averaging 11.3 K/start over his last 3 outings. BAL's lineup has a K% of 23.3% vs RHP which is solidly above average and favorable for Wheeler. Even adjusting the 11.3 recent K average down slightly for a BAL lineup that strikes out less than DET/CIN (his recent opponents), an 8-10 K range is very plausible. The -111 line at 7.5 implies roughly 52% hit rate, which undervalues a pitcher with 39.7% K rate against a lineup with above-average K tendencies. Note the concern about his last start being only 68 pitches (possible injury/hook), but the prior two starts were 96 and 104 pitches suggesting that was an anomaly. BAL bullpen xERA is elite (1.96), meaning PHI won't score much — Wheeler may go deeper to protect the game. One caution: PHI's fresh bullpen flag (2.0 IP over 1g) could mean an early hook. Still, the K rate edge is large enough to recommend at -111.
STL @ TOR✓1:37 PM · Rogers Centre (Roof Closed)
STL @ TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
M. Liberatore L
xERA3.15 (good)K%27.3 (good)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%2.3 (elite)ERA4.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs82BB%7.6
TOR vs LHP
wRC+78 (poor)K%23.8 (avg)HH%27.6 (poor)
Max Scherzer R
xERA5.07 (below avg)K%16.3 (below avg)HH%40.6 (below avg)Barrel%15.6 (poor)ERA14.04IP/gs2.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs80BB%18.4
STL vs RHP
wRC+78 (poor)K%18.8 (above avg)HH%41.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+100-1.5 (+158)O9.0 (-110)TOR-108+1.5 (-176)U9.0 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-124-0.5 (+108)O5.5 (+108)TOR+100+0.5 (-140)U5.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderSTLO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-122)TORO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UM. Liberatore3.5 (-156 / +125)15.5 (+126 / -168)Max Scherzer3.5 (-146 / +128)14.5 (-134 / +105)
M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ W6.08571100
W6.08571100Jul 27vs 
L3.26758233
L3.26758233Jul 21@ 
L5.19579255
L5.19579255Jul 11vs W6.07164100
W6.07164100Jul 5@ L5.07834234
L5.07834234Max Scherzer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs L6.08454111
L6.08454111Jul 27@ W2.27544311
W2.27544311Jun 10vs L3.18245355
L3.18245355Apr 24vs 
L2.18206377
L2.18206377Apr 18@ 
L6.07415122
L6.07415122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
M. Liberatore
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.54.095.55.01.0(2)
at TOR6.00.007.01.01.0(1)
Max Scherzer
IPERAKHBB
vs STL6.01.505.04.01.0(1)
home starts3.710.453.05.02.3(3)
Trends · STL
- STL are 1-2 vs TOR this season (3 games).
- STL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 3.4 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL average 5.0 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 2-1 vs STL this season (3 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 1-4 in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 1-4 in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.
- TOR average 3.4 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.8 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 5.152d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 4.062d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 11
- STL — M. Liberatore: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TOR — Max Scherzer: small sample (8.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- TOR — Max Scherzer: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- TOR — Max Scherzer: BB% 18% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TOR — Max Scherzer: avg 2.8 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- STL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- STL — M. Liberatore: last start: 67 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- STL — M. Liberatore: 2026-07-21: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- STL — M. Liberatore: recent opponents high-K: LAA 26%, CHC 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TOR — Max Scherzer: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TOR — Max Scherzer: recent opponents low-K: CLE 18%, WSN 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
STL F5 ML -124 (-124)
Max Scherzer is in acute collapse: recent ERA 15.00, averaging only 2.8 IP/gs, 8 ER in 2.1 IP last start, Barrel% 16%, BB% 18% — every signal screams disaster. Liberatore is HOT (recent ERA 2.25, xERA 3.15) and gets a TOR lineup that is wRC+ 65 vs LHP — one of the coldest splits in today's slate. This is a pure pitching mismatch in the first 5. We avoid full-game due to STL's shaky bullpen (xERA 4.24) and 49% rain risk which could cut the game short, making the F5 the cleanest expression of this edge. Line at -124 is just inside the pricing threshold.
STL Team Total o2.5 (+110)
Max Scherzer is historically bad right now: recent ERA 15.00, xERA 5.07, Barrel% 16%, BB% 18%, averaging only 2.8 IP/gs. His last 3 starts: 2.1 IP/8 ER, 2.1 IP/7 ER in two of them. He cannot get through 5 innings without massive damage. STL's wRC+ vs RHP sits at 78 (poor) but that is irrelevant here — you don't need a great offense to score 3+ runs off a pitcher giving up 8 ER in 2.1 IP. Scherzer averages 2.8 IP/gs, so even if STL faces relievers early, Scherzer's lack of command (BB% 18%) and extreme barrel rate means traffic and runs in the first innings. Getting STL F5 Over 2.5 at +110 is free money given Scherzer's near-certain early implosion.
STL @ TOR F5 o5.5 (+108)
Both sides of this F5 have run-scoring pressure. Scherzer is an active disaster (recent ERA 15.00, xERA 5.07, BB% 18%, Barrel% 16%, avg 2.8 IP/gs) and cannot be trusted to stop runs. Liberatore has a recent ERA of 2.25 and is pitching well, BUT his HH% is 49% and he had a short 67-pitch outing last start raising concern about stretch. Even with Liberatore competent, Scherzer will almost certainly surrender 3+ runs in the first 5. A combined 5.5 at +108 is a solid price given the near-certainty of runs from the Scherzer side alone — two half-decent offensive teams, one complete disaster of a starter.
ARI @ CLE✓1:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
ARI @ CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Merrill Kelly R
xERA4.63 (below avg)K%19.4 (avg)HH%55.6 (poor)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA1.72IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs92BB%6.5
CLE vs RHP
wRC+104 (avg)K%18.2 (above avg)HH%31.5 (below avg)
Gavin Williams R
xERA1.94 (elite)K%47.2 (elite)HH%54.0 (poor)Barrel%8.1 (avg)ERA3.15IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs96BB%1.4
ARI vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%14.6 (elite)HH%40.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+2600+4.5 (+135)O7.5 (-130)CLE-4000-4.5 (-164)U7.5 (+116)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+130+0.5 (-120)O4.5 (+116)CLE-154-0.5 (-108)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO3.5 (-102)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)CLEO4.5 (+110)U3.5 (+116)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMerrill Kelly3.5 (-130 / +116)16.5 (-126 / -105)Gavin Williams7.5 (+123 / +124)18.5 (+128 / -171)
Merrill Kelly · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ L5.09658455
L5.09658455Jul 27@ L5.29364101
L5.29364101Jul 22vs W5.08735122
W5.08735122Jul 17vs L5.08734213
L5.08734213Jul 9@ W7.09463311
W7.09463311Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs W5.289101100
W5.289101100Jul 28@ L7.0101123122
L7.0101123122Jul 23vs 
L7.097112000
L7.097112000Jul 18vs L6.084117055
L6.084117055Jul 9@ W7.0103113122
W7.0103113122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Merrill Kelly
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE6.03.756.56.03.0(2)
at CLE5.09.005.08.04.0(1)
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.20.007.52.51.0(2)
home starts6.12.4710.73.30.3(3)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-0 vs CLE this season (2 games).
- ARI are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI have won 4 straight.
- ARI are 3-2 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 5.6 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 1.6 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 0-2 vs ARI this season (2 games).
- CLE are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 1.4 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 2.4 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 6.202d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 4.682d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph S
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CLE — Gavin Williams: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ARI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: recent opponents low-K: STL 19%, ATH 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-07-18: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Gavin Williams K o7.5 (+123) (+123)
Williams has an absurd 47.2 K% (elite) and averages 9.3 K/start in recent outings. Today he faces ARI which has a K% of only 15.3 vs RHP — a contact-oriented lineup, which will temper expectations somewhat vs high-K recent opponents. However, Williams' elite K rate is so dominant that even calibrating down for ARI's lower K% (from PIT 25%/MIN high-K to ARI 15%), he still projects around 7-8 Ks. The line at 7.5 at +123 offers genuine value given his 9.3 avg. The recent ERA spike was one bad start (flagged as outlier) and his Outs line is 18.5 — the market expects him to pitch deep, meaning enough innings to rack up Ks. The flag about high-K recent opponents is noted, but his raw K% at 47.2% is so far above the field that even vs a contact team he comfortably threatens this number.
CHW @ 
TBR1:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
CHW @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Anthony Kay L
xERA4.01 (avg)K%25.0 (good)HH%44.7 (below avg)Barrel%15.8 (poor)ERA4.40IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs88BB%9.4
TBR vs LHP
wRC+100 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%32.8 (below avg)
Griffin Jax R
xERA2.64 (elite)K%29.6 (elite)HH%34.1 (good)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA4.86IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs86BB%7.0
CHW vs RHP
wRC+88 (below avg)K%23.0 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+136+1.5 (-166)O7.5 (-115)TBR-146-1.5 (+145)U7.5 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+130+0.5 (-118)O4.5 (+110)TBR-164-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO3.5 (-102)U3.5 (-120)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)TBRO4.5 (+120)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAnthony Kay4.5 (+125 / -144)15.5 (+124 / -166)Griffin Jax5.5 (-144 / +124)15.5 (+105 / -132)
Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ W6.18937100
W6.18937100Jul 28vs L5.19775133
L5.19775133Jul 22@ W5.07945222
W5.07945222Jul 17@ W4.08352322
W4.08352322Jul 9vs L5.19244222
L5.19244222Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs L5.08284013
L5.08284013Jul 28vs L5.293105312
L5.293105312Jul 22@ W6.08353111
W6.08353111Jul 17@ L5.08568177
L5.08568177Jul 11vs 
W5.06934311
W5.06934311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Anthony Kay
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR6.10.003.07.01.0(1)
at TBR6.10.003.07.01.0(1)
Griffin Jax
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW3.01.504.52.50.5(2)
home starts5.11.787.04.32.0(3)
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-4 vs TBR this season (6 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 4.4 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 6.0 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 4-2 vs CHW this season (6 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 2-3 in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-2 in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 2.4 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 3.6 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 2.99 (elite)ERA 3.042d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 1.91 (elite)ERA 1.512d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Dome
Flags · 4
- CHW — Anthony Kay: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHW — Anthony Kay: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CHW bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR — Griffin Jax: 2026-07-17: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
PIT @ CIN1:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
PIT @ CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mitch Keller R
xERA3.10 (good)K%22.0 (avg)HH%42.5 (below avg)Barrel%2.5 (elite)ERA3.38IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs76BB%8.5
CIN vs RHP
wRC+78 (poor)K%29.3 (poor)HH%38.8 (avg)
Chase Burns R
xERA3.73 (good)K%18.5 (avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%7.0 (good)ERA2.40IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs89BB%15.4
PIT vs RHP
wRC+93 (below avg)K%24.4 (below avg)HH%34.5 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT—+6.5 (+265)O11.5 (+128)CIN—-6.5 (-360)U11.5 (-155)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+146+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (+106)CIN-184-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO3.5 (-128)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)CINO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-122)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMitch Keller4.5 (-125 / +104)15.5 (+115 / +123)Chase Burns6.5 (-122 / +107)17.5 (+104 / -138)
Mitch Keller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ L2.06926477
L2.06926477Jul 27vs W5.18346122
W5.18346122Jul 22@ W5.07563200
W5.07563200Jul 9vs L3.07234233
L3.07234233Jul 3@ L6.08318055
L6.08318055Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs W6.08892211
W6.08892211Jul 28vs L5.08945215
L5.08945215Jul 21@ W5.09163200
W5.09163200Jul 8vs W5.010623633
W5.010623633Jul 2@ 
W6.08944222
W6.08944222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mitch Keller
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.06.604.04.72.0(3)
at CIN2.031.502.06.04.0(1)
Chase Burns
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.32.848.74.71.0(3)
home starts5.32.815.03.33.3(3)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 7-5 vs CIN this season (12 games).
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Mitch Keller's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 5.4 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 4.6 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 5-7 vs PIT this season (12 games).
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 3-2 in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-3 in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 5.4 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 6.0 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 4.02 (avg)ERA 4.202d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 4.31 (avg)ERA 1.912d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
73°F, Overcast, Wind 2 mph NE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- CIN — Chase Burns: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- PIT bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PIT — Mitch Keller: 2026-07-09: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIA @ 
NYM✓1:40 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
MIA @ NYM✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Sandy Alcantara R
xERA3.58 (good)K%18.3 (avg)HH%41.0 (below avg)Barrel%8.2 (avg)ERA2.70IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs102BB%7.3
NYM vs RHP
wRC+82 (below avg)K%27.5 (below avg)HH%39.2 (avg)
Robert Stock R
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
MIA vs RHP
wRC+120 (above avg)K%24.3 (below avg)HH%43.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-116-1.5 (+136)O8.5 (-117)NYM+108+1.5 (-156)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-132-0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-122)NYM+106+0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)NYMO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USandy Alcantara4.5 (-125 / +114)18.5 (+104 / -115)Robert Stock——
Sandy Alcantara · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ W6.010254200
W6.010254200Jul 28vs W7.09754100
W7.09754100Jul 22@ 
L7.010839155
L7.010839155Jul 17@ L6.010473411
L6.010473411Jul 10vs L7.09985033
L7.09985033Robert Stock · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs L5.07043011
L5.07043011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sandy Alcantara
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM6.71.354.74.71.7(3)
at NYM6.50.695.54.01.5(2)
Robert Stock
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.01.804.03.00.0(1)
home starts5.01.804.03.00.0(1)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 6-4 vs NYM this season (10 games).
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-2 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 2.6 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 6.4 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 4-6 vs MIA this season (10 games).
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 4.08 (avg)ERA 4.872d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 1.85 (elite)ERA 1.712d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
82°F, Overcast, Wind 13 mph SSE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- NYM — Robert Stock: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- MIA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIA F5 ML -132 (-132)
Robert Stock is a NO STATS first-time starter — a hard disqualifier for betting against MIA here. Sandy Alcantara is HOT (recent ERA 2.14, 8.0 IP in last start) with an excellent history at Citi Field (1.29 ERA in 1gs) and solid history vs NYM (2.37 ERA, 3gs). MIA offense is wRC+ 115 in L12. NYM bullpen is elite (xERA 1.81) so full-game ML is tempting, but MIA's own pen is shaky (xERA 4.40). The F5 cleanly isolates the Alcantara vs. unknown starter edge, avoiding MIA bullpen exposure. -132 is within pricing limits.
NYM Team Total u3.5 (+114)
Sandy Alcantara is hot (recent ERA 2.14, xERA 3.58), going deep (avg 6.7 IP/gs), and has an excellent track record vs NYM specifically: 2.37 ERA over 3 starts, including 1.29 ERA at this very park. NYM's offense is cold in L12 (wRC+ 82) and they strike out at 27.5% vs RHP. NYM bullpen is elite (xERA 1.85) which matters for MIA's side but NYM's own offense vs this pitcher is the bet. Getting NYM Under 3.5 at +114 is a plus-money under with strong pitcher dominance signals and favorable matchup history.
TEX @ HOU✓2:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
TEX @ HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kumar Rocker R
xERA3.92 (avg)K%25.7 (good)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA4.42IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs84BB%8.1
HOU vs RHP
wRC+135 (elite)K%22.0 (avg)HH%40.6 (above avg)
Peter Lambert R
xERA3.28 (good)K%25.3 (good)HH%41.7 (below avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA2.65IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs87BB%8.0
TEX vs RHP
wRC+115 (above avg)K%27.1 (below avg)HH%35.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+6500+3.5 (+225)O10.5 (-125)HOU-10000-3.5 (-265)U10.5 (+105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+100+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-128)HOU-124-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+130)U2.5 (-166)HOUO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-128)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKumar Rocker4.5 (-145 / +124)15.5 (-111 / -119)Peter Lambert5.5 (-140 / +120)17.5 (-135 / +110)
Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ L5.188510233
L5.188510233Jul 27vs W6.28874222
W6.28874222Jul 21vs W6.07561200
W6.07561200Jul 11vs L5.29168277
L5.29168277Jul 5vs L4.18545133
L4.18545133Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs W5.28383222
W5.28383222Jul 28@ W5.09067122
W5.09067122Jul 22vs W6.08936222
W6.08936222Jul 17vs L6.0104103311
L6.0104103311Jul 11@ W6.010773111
W6.010773111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kumar Rocker
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.18.245.37.32.0(3)
at HOU5.15.295.010.02.0(1)
Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX5.74.197.03.01.7(3)
home starts5.72.627.04.02.3(3)
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 4-8 vs HOU this season (12 games).
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX have lost 4 straight.
- TEX are 3-2 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 5.2 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.0 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 8-4 vs TEX this season (12 games).
- HOU are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU have won 5 straight.
- HOU are 4-1 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 4.2 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 3.4 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.71 (good)ERA 4.502d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 3.10 (good)ERA 2.792d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 2
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: 2026-07-11: 7 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
HOU F5 ML -124 (-124)
Peter Lambert is blazing hot (recent ERA 1.05 over 3 starts, avg 7.7 K/start) with a 1.57 ERA at home and decent history vs TEX (4.50 ERA, 2gs — manageable). Kumar Rocker has a 9.71 ERA in 2 career starts vs HOU specifically and is struggling (recent ERA 5.88). HOU offense is wRC+ 125 in L12 and is 9-1 L10 overall. TEX bullpen is shaky (xERA 3.87, ERA 5.36) but the F5 limits that exposure. HOU bullpen is strong (xERA 3.13). The compound edge of elite recent pitching + hot offense + terrible Rocker history at this park makes the F5 line of -124 acceptable value.
TEX Team Total u4.5 (-145)
Lambert's recent ERA of 1.05 with a home ERA of 1.57 (3gs) and a strong HOU bullpen (xERA 3.13) creates a strong suppression case for TEX scoring. TEX is wRC+ 113 vs RHP but that's a moderate offense facing a pitcher in peak form. TEX averages only 4.0 RS in away starts in their last 5 with this pitcher. The under 4.5 at -145 is at the pricing limit but justifiable given the compounding factors — Lambert's form + HOU bullpen + roof closed (neutral, no wind help).
HOU Team Total o4.5 (+100)
HOU offense is elite in L12 (wRC+ 135) and they face Kumar Rocker who is clearly struggling: recent ERA 5.88, and his matchup history vs HOU is a brutal 9.71 ERA over 2 starts. Lambert has been brilliant (recent ERA 1.05) but that's on the pitching side — we're expressing HOU's offensive edge vs Rocker here. TEX bullpen xERA is 3.71, not a shutdown pen. HOU averaging 4.2 RS in Lambert's L5 starts but that's the context of their starter being elite; vs the opposing weak starter, they should score more. Getting HOU Over 4.5 at even money (+100) has good value given elite offense vs a visibly struggling pitcher with a terrible head-to-head history.
NYY @ CHC✓2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldPitcher Friendly
NYY @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Gerrit Cole R
xERA2.58 (elite)K%36.1 (elite)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%7.0 (good)ERA2.37IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs97BB%4.2
CHC vs RHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Colin Rea R
xERA3.95 (avg)K%18.8 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)Barrel%9.6 (avg)ERA4.24IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs89BB%5.8
NYY vs RHP
wRC+61 (poor)K%29.6 (poor)HH%45.9 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-185-1.5 (+409)O4.5 (+140)CHC+240+1.5 (-475)U4.5 (+114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-140-0.5 (+108)O3.5 (-102)CHC+114+0.5 (-140)U3.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYYO3.5 (+100)U3.5 (-125)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)CHCO2.5 (-138)U2.5 (+110)O1.5 (+110)U1.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGerrit Cole6.5 (+105 / -130)17.5 (-163 / +123)Colin Rea5.5 (+134 / +127)16.5 (-108 / -123)
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ W5.29954311
W5.29954311Jul 28@ W6.09974200
W6.09974200Jul 22vs L7.093114033
L7.093114033Jul 17vs L6.010384122
L6.010384122Jul 8@ L6.19767133
L6.19767133Colin Rea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs L6.08773122
L6.08773122Jul 28@ W6.09424211
W6.09424211Jul 22vs L5.08656144
L5.08656144Jul 17vs L6.09165134
L6.09165134Jul 8@ W5.19127233
W5.19127233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gerrit Cole
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.21.735.04.03.0(1)
at CHC5.21.735.04.03.0(1)
Colin Rea
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.03.007.03.01.0(1)
home starts5.74.766.04.71.0(3)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 1-1 vs CHC this season (2 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 2.4 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 2.0 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 1-1 vs NYY this season (2 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 3-2 in Colin Rea's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 1-4 in Colin Rea's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 9.0 runs/game in Colin Rea's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 7.2 runs/game in Colin Rea's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.56 (good)ERA 3.302d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 3.81 (avg)ERA 2.402d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
69°F, Overcast, Wind 14 mph N
APF 96 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 4
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- NYY bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CHC bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CHC — Colin Rea: 2026-07-22: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
NYY @ CHC u6.5 (-105)
Both offenses are cold or below average: NYY wRC+ 61 (poor, L12) and CHC wRC+ 112 but Cole has held lineups to limited run support recently. Cole's recent ERA (3.68) is higher than his xERA (2.58) suggesting some bad luck masking true quality. Both bullpens are solid (NYY xERA 3.56, CHC xERA 3.81). Wind blowing IN at 16mph at Wrigley suppresses run scoring and home runs significantly. NYY averaging only 2.4 RS in Cole's L5 starts, CHC scoring 9.0 but that's from Colin Rea's team — the offense that shows up in Rea's starts is not necessarily the same as what Cole will allow. Two functional starters, solid pens, pitcher-friendly wind, cold NYY offense. Under 6.5 at -105 is a fair price.
KCR @ COL✓3:10 PM · Coors FieldHot
KCR @ COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Seth Lugo R
xERA4.05 (avg)K%13.7 (below avg)HH%53.7 (poor)Barrel%3.7 (elite)ERA2.37IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs92BB%8.2
COL vs RHP
wRC+92 (below avg)K%26.5 (below avg)HH%37.4 (avg)
Kyle Freeland L
xERA3.94 (avg)K%20.3 (avg)HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA6.75IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs85BB%4.0
KCR vs LHP
wRC+105 (avg)K%25.5 (below avg)HH%38.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+2200+3.5 (+116)O9.5 (-112)COL-1450-3.5 (-135)U9.5 (-107)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+100+0.5 (-132)O6.5 (+104)COL-120-0.5 (+102)U6.5 (-135)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO5.5 (-132)U5.5 (+110)O2.5 (-145)U2.5 (+114)COLO5.5 (-130)U5.5 (+105)O3.5 (+120)U3.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USeth Lugo4.5 (+120 / +130)—Kyle Freeland4.5 (+130 / -159)17.5 (-115 / +104)
Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ L5.09935522
L5.09935522Jul 28@ L6.08426211
L6.08426211Jul 22vs 
W7.09453233
W7.09453233Jul 17vs W6.09034212
W6.09034212Jul 12@ L4.08964222
L4.08964222Kyle Freeland · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs W6.07763211
W6.07763211Jul 26@ L5.18726155
L5.18726155Jul 20vs L6.09147244
L6.09147244Jul 11@ L6.09296044
L6.09296044Jul 6@ L5.07229066
L5.07229066SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Seth Lugo
IPERAKHBB
vs COL5.03.603.05.05.0(1)
at COL5.03.603.05.05.0(1)
Kyle Freeland
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR6.01.506.03.02.0(1)
home starts5.73.715.75.31.7(3)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 0-2 vs COL this season (2 games).
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 3-2 in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-3 in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 6.4 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 6.0 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 2-0 vs KCR this season (2 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 1-4 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL are 3-2 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 4.0 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL average 5.0 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.50 (avg)ERA 4.622d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 4.60 (below avg)ERA 4.742d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
101°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NE
APF 118 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- KCR — Seth Lugo: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- COL — Kyle Freeland: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- COL bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- COL — Kyle Freeland: high-K outing 2026-07-11 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- COL — Kyle Freeland: low-K outing 2026-07-26 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 118) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
KCR @ COL o12.0 (-115)
Coors Field (APF 117) is the most offense-friendly park in baseball. Both starters are struggling: Lugo has recent ERA 5.74 and Freeland 6.75 (both ↓ STRUGGLING). Both bullpens are among the worst in today's slate — KCR xERA 5.13, COL xERA 4.82. Freeland has a 6.35 ERA at home in recent starts. KCR averages 6.0-6.4 RS in recent away starts. Even at 12.0, the Coors multiplier plus two struggling pitchers and two bad pens makes this a legitimate over. Market has it at 12.0 which is already elevated but these conditions justify it — both starters project to allow 4-6 runs each.
MIL @ LAA✓3:15 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
MIL @ LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
J. Misiorowski R
xERA1.21 (elite)K%49.1 (elite)HH%40.7 (below avg)Barrel%7.4 (good)ERA2.25IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs71BB%1.7
LAA vs RHP
wRC+77 (poor)K%24.4 (below avg)HH%39.1 (avg)
Walbert Urena R
xERA2.99 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)HH%30.9 (good)Barrel%2.4 (elite)ERA1.13IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs93BB%12.5
MIL vs RHP
wRC+123 (above avg)K%19.5 (above avg)HH%41.3 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+390+1.5 (+125)O3.5 (+105)LAA-370-1.5 (-120)U3.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-280-1.5 (+116)O3.5 (-125)LAA+220+1.5 (-152)U3.5 (-104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMILO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)LAAO2.5 (-125)U2.5 (-102)O1.5 (+145)U1.5 (-188)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJ. Misiorowski9.5 (+106 / -124)—Walbert Urena4.5 (-154 / +124)16.5 (-104 / -110)
J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ L6.06492022
L6.06492022Jul 26vs W5.083121011
W5.083121011Jul 20vs W4.06564101
W4.06564101Jul 7@ W7.0103113033
W7.0103113033Jul 2vs L5.082105015
L5.082105015Walbert Urena · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs W6.09073300
W6.09073300Jul 27vs L6.09152211
L6.09152211Jul 21vs W6.09856111
W6.09856111Jul 8@ W4.09031500
W4.09031500Jul 2@ L5.210761411
L5.210761411SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
J. Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.03.009.02.00.0(1)
at LAA6.03.009.02.00.0(1)
Walbert Urena
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.00.007.03.03.0(1)
home starts6.01.005.73.72.0(3)
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-0 vs LAA this season (2 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 6.2 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.0 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 0-2 vs MIL this season (2 games).
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA have lost 5 straight.
- LAA are 2-3 in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 3-2 in Walbert Urena's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 5.0 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 6.6 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.40 (good)ERA 4.032d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 3.23 (good)ERA 2.922d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- LAA — Walbert Urena: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- LAA bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIL — J. Misiorowski: recent opponents high-K: NYM 28%, COL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
J. Misiorowski o9.5 Ks (+106)
Misiorowski has a freakish xERA of 1.21 and K% of 49.1 — elite strikeout stuff. He's averaging 9.7 K/start over his last 3 outings (11K, 10K, 8K). The caution flag notes his recent opponents (NYM 28%, COL 27%) were high-K lineups. Today's LAA lineup has K% of 24.4% vs RHP — still above average and favorable for a high-K pitcher. Calibrating: recent 9.7 avg vs high-K opponents, vs a 24.4% K team (roughly league average) I'd project ~8.5-9.5 Ks. The line is 9.5 at +106 (plus money). This is marginal but getting plus money on a pitcher averaging 9.7/start against a lineup that still strikes out at a decent rate is value. He goes 5.3 IP/gs average, so he's getting ~16 outs, and with a 49% K rate that's ~7.8 Ks from his typical workload — BUT the recent 3 starts averaged 9.7 with deeper outings (7.0, 5.0, 6.0 IP). The park (APF 104) is slightly hitter-friendly but irrelevant for K props. Getting +106 on a pitcher with this K profile is the edge.
DET @ ATH4:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHot
DET @ ATHMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Keider Montero R
xERA2.91 (elite)K%25.0 (good)HH%30.8 (good)Barrel%5.1 (good)ERA3.46IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs63BB%1.8
ATH vs RHP
wRC+110 (avg)K%16.7 (above avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Gage Jump L
xERA4.02 (avg)K%31.8 (elite)HH%42.4 (below avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)ERA5.65IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs71BB%15.9
DET vs LHP
wRC+59 (poor)K%21.6 (avg)HH%36.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-340-2.5 (-130)O9.5 (-110)ATH+296+2.5 (+102)U9.5 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET+102+0.5 (-135)O5.5 (-130)ATH-128-0.5 (+104)U5.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderDETO5.5 (-113)U5.5 (-113)ATHO5.5 (+105)U5.5 (-132)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKeider Montero3.5 (+111 / -128)15.5 (+108 / -144)Gage Jump5.5 (-104 / -101)15.5 (+125 / -155)
Keider Montero · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ W2.02901100
W2.02901100Jul 27vs L4.18019146
L4.18019146Jul 22@ W5.18183011
W5.18183011Jul 17@ W3.1*4351000
W3.1*4351000Jul 12vs L3.0*5854133
L3.0*5854133Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs L2.04032322
L2.04032322Jul 28vs W6.09073400
W6.09073400Jul 22@ L4.28358466
L4.28358466Jul 17vs L3.28784234
L3.28784234Jul 11@ L5.28675211
L5.28675211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Keider Montero
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH2.00.000.01.01.0(1)
at ATH2.00.000.01.01.0(1)
Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs DET2.09.003.02.03.0(1)
home starts3.74.026.03.03.0(3)
Trends · DET
- DET are 5-0 vs ATH this season (5 games).
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 4-1 in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Keider Montero's last 5 away starts.
- DET average 6.8 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.2 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 0-5 vs DET this season (5 games).
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH have lost 4 straight.
- ATH are 1-4 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-3 in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 4.2 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 5.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 4.17 (avg)ERA 4.182d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 5.03 (below avg)ERA 6.622d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
98°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph NW
APF 110 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
- ATH — Gage Jump: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.03 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- DET bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATH bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- DET — Keider Montero: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-17, 2026-07-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
- DET — Keider Montero: 2026-07-27: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATH — Gage Jump: 2026-07-22: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATH — Gage Jump: recent opponents low-K: WSN 19%, ARI 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 110) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
MIN @ SEA4:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
MIN @ SEAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Taj Bradley R
xERA3.36 (good)K%28.8 (elite)HH%44.2 (below avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA4.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs79BB%12.3
SEA vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%23.4 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
George Kirby R
xERA4.49 (avg)K%24.6 (good)HH%44.7 (below avg)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA5.06IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs60BB%1.5
MIN vs RHP
wRC+84 (below avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%42.7 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+360+2.5 (-131)O7.5 (+100)SEA-430-2.5 (+105)U7.5 (-122)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+118+0.5 (-130)O3.5 (-140)SEA-140-0.5 (+100)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO3.5 (+106)U3.5 (-130)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)SEAO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTaj Bradley6.5 (-105 / -112)18.5 (+143 / -192)George Kirby5.5 (-110 / -115)17.5 (-185 / +147)
Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ L1.12712122
L1.12712122Jul 28vs W6.0102103322
W6.0102103322Jul 23@ W7.010952311
W7.010952311Jul 18@ L5.09467355
L5.09467355Jul 12vs W7.09966222
W7.09966222George Kirby · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs W2.03314000
W2.03314000Jul 27@ L4.06637077
L4.06637077Jul 20vs W6.08063100
W6.08063100Jul 8@ L6.08678022
L6.08678022Jun 29vs W8.010077122
W8.010077122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Taj Bradley
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA4.04.444.03.01.5(2)
at SEA1.116.361.02.01.0(1)
George Kirby
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN4.42.053.05.01.0(3)
home starts5.31.124.74.70.7(3)
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 2-3 vs SEA this season (5 games).
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 4-1 in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 3.0 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 6.6 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 3-2 vs MIN this season (5 games).
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 3-2 in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 3-2 in George Kirby's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 4.0 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.0 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.46 (good)ERA 3.422d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 3.41 (good)ERA 3.192d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
65°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph W
APF 91 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 11
- MIN — Taj Bradley: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIN — Taj Bradley: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- SEA — George Kirby: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SEA — George Kirby: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- MIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIN — Taj Bradley: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- MIN — Taj Bradley: 2026-07-18: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SEA — George Kirby: last start: 66 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- SEA — George Kirby: 2026-07-27: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SEA — George Kirby: recent opponents high-K: CIN 29%, TEX 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 91) — park suppresses offense, favor the under
SFG @ SDP✓4:10 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
SFG @ SDP✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Landen Roupp R
xERA3.85 (avg)K%15.6 (below avg)HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA3.24IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs67BB%9.4
SDP vs RHP
wRC+150 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)HH%41.8 (above avg)
Kyle Hart
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
SFG
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+380+2.5 (-106)O8.5 (+105)SDP-450-2.5 (+100)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+120+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (+102)SDP-142-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-132)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-113)O1.5 (-120)U1.5 (-110)SDPO4.5 (+110)U4.5 (-138)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULanden Roupp4.5 (-138 / +112)16.5 (-121 / -110)Kyle Hart——
Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2@ L1.12723122
L1.12723122Jul 28vs L3.28414344
L3.28414344Jul 22@ L6.09174022
L6.09174022Jul 17@ W7.09722300
W7.09722300Jul 6vs W8.010453211
W8.010453211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP3.16.853.73.31.7(3)
at SDP3.16.853.73.31.7(3)
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 4-5 vs SDP this season (9 games).
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 2-3 in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 5.0 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 3.6 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 5-4 vs SFG this season (9 games).
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.35 (good)ERA 3.192d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 2.15 (elite)ERA 3.192d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 9 mph SW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- SDP — Kyle Hart: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SFG bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SFG — Landen Roupp: 2026-07-28: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SDP Team Total o4.5 (+110)
SDP offense is wRC+ 166 (elite) in L12 — the hottest lineup in today's slate by a wide margin. Landen Roupp has a brutal history at Petco (6.64 ERA in 3gs at this park) and has a recent blow-up start. Even adjusting for that skew, his xERA is 3.85 and he allows hard contact. SFG bullpen is average (xERA 3.85). SDP bullpen is elite (xERA 1.92), protecting a lead. SDP is 7-3 home L10 and 4-1 home in King's last 5 starts. Getting +110 on a historically elite recent offense at home vs a pitcher who struggles here is clear value.
BOS @ LAD✓7:20 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
BOS @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jake Bennett L
xERA3.15 (good)K%14.9 (below avg)HH%37.3 (avg)Barrel%3.4 (elite)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs79BB%4.0
LAD vs LHP
wRC+88 (below avg)K%21.0 (avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Emmet Sheehan R
xERA2.82 (elite)K%26.9 (good)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA5.17IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%6.0
BOS vs RHP
wRC+86 (below avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%35.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS+158+1.5 (-132)O8.5 (-104)LAD-172-1.5 (+118)U8.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS+145+0.5 (-113)O4.5 (-110)LAD-168-0.5 (-115)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBOSO3.5 (-105)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-120)U1.5 (-110)LADO4.5 (-111)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Bennett3.5 (-118 / -105)16.5 (-105 / -125)Emmet Sheehan5.5 (-130 / +106)16.5 (-105 / -126)
Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28@ L6.18846233
L6.18846233Jul 22vs W5.28349033
W5.28349033Jul 17vs W6.06531100
W6.06531100Jul 8@ W7.08144100
W7.08144100Jul 3@ W7.29265022
W7.29265022Emmet Sheehan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26@ L5.08753211
L5.08753211Jul 20@ L5.18768166
L5.18768166Jul 12vs L5.110173123
L5.110173123Jul 5vs L4.19653311
L4.19653311Jun 28@ W5.08452211
W5.08452211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Emmet Sheehan
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.03.605.03.02.0(1)
home starts4.16.595.34.72.3(3)
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 2-0 vs LAD this season (2 games).
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 9-1 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS have won 4 straight.
- BOS are 3-2 in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-3 in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 4.8 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 4.0 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 0-2 vs BOS this season (2 games).
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 1-4 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 1-4 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 3.8 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 1.902d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 4.99 (below avg)ERA 6.812d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph WSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- BOS bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAD bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS — Jake Bennett: recent opponents high-K: BAL 26%, ATH 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- LAD — Emmet Sheehan: 2026-07-20: 6 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAD — Emmet Sheehan: recent opponents high-K: PHI 27%, NYM 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
BOS @ LAD u8.5 (-112)
Multiple under signals converge: (1) Jake Bennett is historically HOT right now — recent ERA 0.89 over last 3 starts, far below his already-solid xERA of 3.15, showing elite current form. (2) Sheehan's xERA is elite at 2.82, and his recent ERA of 2.54 (excluding the fluky 6-ER outlier which skews his 3-game number) reflects genuine dominance — Season ERA 5.17 >> xERA 2.82 signals he's been unlucky all season and market is likely overestimating run risk. (3) Both offenses are cold in L12: BOS wRC+ 86 vs RHP, LAD wRC+ 88 vs LHP — neither lineup is hot. (4) Both teams are scoring modestly in these starters' recent outings: LAD averaging only 3.2 RS at home in Sheehan's starts, BOS averaging 4.0 RS away. (5) Bennett has no park/opponent history here, but his mechanics and form suggest dominance will travel. The 8.5 total feels generous given two pitchers both performing well right now and two cold offenses. LAD's bullpen is stressed but both starters project to go deep, limiting bullpen exposure.
Emmet Sheehan Ks o5.5 (-130)
Sheehan's K% is elite at 26.9% and he's averaging 5.7 K/start over his last 3. However, the key calibration: his recent Ks came against PHI (27% K%) and NYM (28% K%) — very high-K lineups. BOS vs RHP sits at 22.6% K%, which is below those opponents but still above league average. Adjusting down slightly from 5.7 avg, the calibrated expectation lands around 5.0–5.5 Ks, putting this right at the line. The LAD bullpen stress flag also means the manager may lean on Sheehan for extra innings, providing more K opportunities. The Outs line at 16.5 (≈5.5 IP) is modest — if he goes deeper as flagged, K accumulation improves. This is marginal given the opponent calibration adjustment, hence medium confidence. The -130 price is the primary concern and triggers the warning.
Jake Bennett Outs o16.5 (-105)
Bennett is on a clear ascending workload trajectory: 6.0 IP (65 pitches) → 7.0 IP (81 pitches) → 7.2 IP (92 pitches). He is clearly building up in terms of both innings and pitch count. Over 16.5 outs = 5.2+ IP, an extremely low bar given he's averaged 6.7 IP and 79 pitches over his last 3 starts with no outing below 6.0 IP. The BOS bullpen stress flag (only 4.3 IP in relief over the last game) means the manager has strong incentive to let Bennett work deep. He faces a cold LAD lineup (wRC+ 88 vs LHP) and has strong walk suppression (BB% 4.0). At -105 juice, this is excellent value for a pitcher who hasn't exited before 6 innings in 3 straight starts.