AI Picks · 10 Bets · Jul 23
ARI ML (+102)
Multiple edges align for Arizona. Pfaadt is elite and scorching hot (recent ERA 0.89, xERA 2.41) with a strong matchup vs STL (2.60 ERA in 3 career starts vs them). STL offense is dangerously cold (wRC+ 46 in L12, worst in this slate) and striking out at 24.2% vs RHP. McGreevy's HH% 47% and Barrel% 15% are alarming contact-quality flags, and his recent ERA (3.71) is nearly identical to xERA (3.56) — no luck masking here. ARI bullpen is solid (xERA 3.25). STL averaging only 2.2 RS in home starts this stretch, going 2-3 in those. ARI team trends show 8-2 L10 with 6.7 RS in away starts. Getting ARI at +102 is mispriced given the pitching and offensive mismatch — the market is treating this closer than it should be.
Found at 5:56 AM ET
STL Team Total u3.5 (+114)
Pure Pfaadt dominance bet isolated from game outcome or ARI bullpen. STL wRC+ 46 vs RHP in L12 is the coldest offense on the slate. Pfaadt's recent ERA is 0.89 over his last 3 starts, xERA is 2.41 — elite. He has a 2.60 ERA in 3 career starts vs STL. STL averages only 2.2 RS per game in home starts under their current stretch. Getting +114 on STL Under 3.5 is excellent value — this line should be -130 or worse given Pfaadt's form and STL's offensive futility.
Found at 5:56 AM ET
Brandon Pfaadt o3.5 Ks (+106)
Pfaadt averages 4.7 K/gs vs STL historically. STL's K% vs RHP is 24.2%, which is above average — a genuine strikeout-prone lineup. His recent average is only 4.0 K/start, but his last three opponents (SDP, SFG, LAD) are not particularly high-K teams, and the LAD outing was only 1 IP. Adjusted for STL's 24.2% K rate, expectation rises toward 5+. Getting Over 3.5 at +106 is strong value — this line is too low given his baseline vs a strikeout-prone STL lineup, the historical matchup K rate (4.7/gs), and his elite recent form.
Found at 5:56 AM ET
ARI @ STL u7.5 (-115)
Pfaadt is elite and historically dominant vs STL (2.60 ERA, 3gs) and is scorching hot (recent ERA 0.89). McGreevy has a strong home record (1.49 ERA at home, 6.0 IP/gs) and a 1.48 ERA in his one outing vs ARI. STL offense is ice-cold (wRC+ 51 in L12 vs RHP) — the worst in this slate. Both bullpens are solid (ARI 3.60 xERA, STL 3.14 xERA). McGreevy's HH%/Barrel% flags are concerns but Pfaadt's dominance limits STL's scoring ceiling severely. With a cold STL offense and two capable starters, this game projects well under the number. Three clear under signals: elite Pfaadt, strong STL bullpen, and a historically low-scoring STL offense in L12.
Found at 11:47 AM ET
KCR @ DET F5 u4.5 (-114)
Troy Melton is elite and blazing hot: xERA 2.24, recent ERA 0.99, averaging 6.0 K/start over last 3 with pitch counts under 90 (84/88/84), indicating he'll go deep cleanly. His home ERA is 1.05 in 3 starts. The KCR bullpen (xERA 5.37) is a disqualifier for full-game ML bets on DET, but F5 isolates Melton entirely. On the other side, Dobnak is wild (BB% 12.9%) but has kept runs off the board (recent ERA 2.20). DET offense is only wRC+ 95 vs RHP and KCR's offense, while above-avg (wRC+ 126), faces a dominant Melton. The F5 is largely about Melton suppressing KCR for 5 innings — recent opponents were high-K (NYY 26%, ATH 27%, LAA 25%), and KCR's K% vs RHP is 20.9%, slightly below those levels, meaning we might calibrate KCR Ks down modestly. But the run-suppression case is solid — Melton hasn't allowed more than 1 ER in any of his last 3 starts. F5 Under 4.5 at -114 captures Melton's dominance without exposing to KCR's bullpen.
Found at 5:56 AM ET
KCR Team Total u3.5 (-135)
Troy Melton is elite (xERA 2.24, recent ERA 0.99 HOT) with a dominant home record (1.05 ERA, 5.7 IP/gs at home). KCR's offense is above average (wRC+ 121) but Melton's elite contact suppression (Barrel% 2.8) and high K rate (37.3%) limit the ceiling. DET's bullpen is also excellent (xERA 3.49). With Dobnak's high BB% (12.9%) potentially shortening his start, the KCR bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.52) meaning KCR loses the bullpen battle badly — but for the KCR team total we only care about Melton and DET's pen holding KCR down, which is strongly supported. At -135 for KCR scoring under 3.5, with Melton this sharp at home, this represents solid value.
Found at 11:47 AM ET
Troy Melton o5.5 Ks (-140)
Melton is elite (xERA 2.24, K% 37.3%) and lights-out recently (6.0 avg K/start in last 3 vs NYY, HOU, CHW). KCR's K% of 21.4% vs RHP is solidly above average, and Melton's recent opponents were all quality teams — he's posted 7K, 6K, and 5K in three straight. The adjusted expectation vs KCR (21.4% K rate, above the midpoint of his recent slate) is solidly at 6–7 Ks. The line of 5.5 is beatable and his avg of 6.0 K/start already clears it. The DET bullpen flag notes the manager leans on starters, supporting deep outings. Primary concern is the -140 price — it's at our warning threshold. The edge exists (expectation ~1.0–1.5 Ks above the line) but the price erodes it.
Found at 4:58 PM ET
Line Warning: If -140 is too steep, look for a reduced juice line on the same prop or target Melton Outs Over 17.5 at -150 only if his workload holds. Alternatively, skip and take value elsewhere.
Games In Progress / Completed
Taj Bradley o6.5 Ks (+118)
Bradley is an elite K prop candidate today. His recent avg is 9.3 K/start (10K, 11K, 7K in last 3). The flag notes recent opponents were high-K (CLE 28%, LAA 25%, CHC 25%) — but critically, TODAY's opponent IS Cleveland (28% K%), the same high-K team he already torched for 10 Ks in 7 IP in his most recent start. He has 1 career start vs CLE: 1.29 ERA, 7.0 IP, 10 Ks. His K% is 28.6%, CLE's K% vs RHP is 27.5% — a premium two-sided strikeout matchup. His avg IP is 6.3 and recent pitch counts are 99-101-97, so he'll work deep. The inflation warning is actually a GREEN LIGHT here — the high-K opponents were the same CLE and similar lineups, not a fluke. Getting Over 6.5 at +118 is outstanding value against a 9.3 K/start average with this specific matchup history.
Found at 5:56 AM ET
TBR @ TOR o8.5 (-110)
Strong over case with multiple signals aligning. Bieber is in acute struggle: recent ERA 9.51, xERA 4.71, ERA 5.52 (ERA > xERA means he's genuinely bad, not just unlucky). HH% 48%, BB% 12.3% — batters squaring him up AND taking free bases. His 3-start ERA is skewed by a blowup but even the 'better' starts show 5.1IP/2ER and 3.2IP/4ER — not good. TBR offense is avg (wRC+ 106) vs RHP, but facing a struggling Bieber with a 4.9 IP/gs average means this goes to TOR bullpen (xERA 3.70, ERA 5.44) early. Seymour has flipped his season around (recent ERA 3.24 vs season ERA 8.49) but his HH% 46% and Barrel% 14% remain dangerous — TOR offense, even at wRC+ 46 vs LHP (poor), can still make contact (HH% 43.3%). Both bullpens are leaky (TBR xERA 3.52, TOR xERA 3.70; TOR ERA 5.44 is alarming). Both teams' bullpens are flagged as stressed/elevated. The park is Rogers Centre (domed/open air — neutral). Total at 8.5 is achievable: Bieber's implosion risk alone pushes expected runs over 5+, and Seymour's high contact rates suggest TOR bullpen exposure. Over signals: both xERAs ≥ 4.70, Bieber recent ERA >> xERA (struggling acutely), both bullpens average or worse, Bieber's avg IP only 4.9 means heavy bullpen exposure from TOR side.
Found at 5:56 AM ET
TOR Team Total o3.5 (-140)
Shane Bieber is in acute crisis: recent ERA 9.51 (even discounting the 7-ER outlier, his other recent starts are 2ER/5.1IP and 4ER/3.2IP — still well below average), xERA 4.71, HH% 48%, BB% 12%, and he's only averaging 4.9 IP/gs. TBR offense is hot (wRC+ 119 vs RHP in L12). Casey Legumina is a NO STATS disqualifier for any bet depending on him holding TBR down. With Bieber struggling badly and Legumina unknown, scoring is likely from both sides. TOR team total over 3.5 at -140 is solid: TBR's bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.38) so TBR likely scores, and Legumina's unknown status means this is a TOR-scoring bet purely on Bieber's inability to suppress runs — TOR's offense vs a struggling Bieber is the edge. TOR's L5 avg RS in Bieber's starts is only 3.0, but those may predate his current acute decline.
Found at 11:47 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
SDP @ 
ATL12:15 PM · Truist Park
SDP @ ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kyle Hart
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
ATL
No data
Chris Sale L
xERA3.46 (good)K%24.1 (good)HH%42.5 (below avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs77BB%5.2
SDP vs LHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%17.5 (above avg)HH%51.7 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+212+1.5 (+105)O8.0 (-105)ATL-255-1.5 (-118)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+200+1.5 (-140)O4.5 (-104)ATL-260-1.5 (+108)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USDPO2.5 (-135)U2.5 (+122)O1.5 (+105)U1.5 (-135)ATLO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (-125)U2.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Hart——Chris Sale7.5 (+102 / +126)18.5 (+130 / -150)
Chris Sale · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs W6.098115133
W6.098115133Jul 17vs 
W7.08962000
W7.08962000Jul 10@ 
L3.04352100
L3.04352100Jul 4vs 
W5.09837233
W5.09837233Jun 28@ 
L6.094108112
L6.094108112SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Chris Sale
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP6.03.508.05.01.0(3)
home starts6.03.006.74.71.0(3)
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 4-3 vs ATL this season (7 games).
- SDP are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 3-4 vs SDP this season (7 games).
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 3-2 in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-2 in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 7.2 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 7.0 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.56 (elite)ERA 4.242d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.72 (good)ERA 4.442d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Flags · 3
- SDP — Kyle Hart: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- ATL bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATL — Chris Sale: recent opponents high-K: NYM 27%, TEX 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
MIN @ 
CLE✓1:10 PM · Progressive Field
MIN @ CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Taj Bradley R
xERA3.26 (good)K%28.6 (elite)HH%38.0 (avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)ERA3.79IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs101BB%6.5
CLE vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%23.6 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)
Gavin Williams R
xERA3.16 (good)K%39.4 (elite)HH%48.7 (poor)Barrel%15.4 (poor)ERA5.09IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs95BB%4.2
MIN vs RHP
wRC+93 (below avg)K%20.1 (avg)HH%37.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+120+1.5 (-188)O7.5 (-115)CLE-138-1.5 (+155)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+112+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (+108)CLE-140-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-113)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)CLEO3.5 (-145)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTaj Bradley6.5 (+118 / -145)17.5 (-144 / +108)Gavin Williams6.5 (-113 / -105)17.5 (-149 / +125)
Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23@ W7.010952311
W7.010952311Jul 18@ 
L5.09467355
L5.09467355Jul 12vs 
W7.09966222
W7.09966222Jul 7vs W7.0101103011
W7.0101103011Jul 1@ 
W5.097114311
W5.097114311Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs L7.097112000
L7.097112000Jul 18vs 
L6.084117055
L6.084117055Jul 9@ W7.0103113122
W7.0103113122Jul 3vs 
W4.27965233
W4.27965233Jun 28vs 
W5.010366323
W5.010366323SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Taj Bradley
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE7.01.297.52.51.5(2)
at CLE7.01.295.02.03.0(1)
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN6.73.159.35.00.7(3)
home starts5.74.199.34.70.7(3)
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 6-4 vs CLE this season (10 games).
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 4-1 in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-3 in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 5.2 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 7.0 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 4-6 vs MIN this season (10 games).
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 3.2 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.2 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.36 (good)ERA 3.652d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 2.72 (elite)ERA 3.162d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Flags · 5
- CLE — Gavin Williams: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CLE — Gavin Williams: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- MIN bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIN — Taj Bradley: 2026-07-18: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-07-18: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Taj Bradley o6.5 Ks (+118)
Bradley is an elite K prop candidate today. His recent avg is 9.3 K/start (10K, 11K, 7K in last 3). The flag notes recent opponents were high-K (CLE 28%, LAA 25%, CHC 25%) — but critically, TODAY's opponent IS Cleveland (28% K%), the same high-K team he already torched for 10 Ks in 7 IP in his most recent start. He has 1 career start vs CLE: 1.29 ERA, 7.0 IP, 10 Ks. His K% is 28.6%, CLE's K% vs RHP is 27.5% — a premium two-sided strikeout matchup. His avg IP is 6.3 and recent pitch counts are 99-101-97, so he'll work deep. The inflation warning is actually a GREEN LIGHT here — the high-K opponents were the same CLE and similar lineups, not a fluke. Getting Over 6.5 at +118 is outstanding value against a 9.3 K/start average with this specific matchup history.
TBR @ 
TOR✓3:07 PM · Rogers Centre
TBR @ TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Casey Legumina
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
TOR
No data
Shane Bieber R
xERA4.71 (below avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%47.7 (poor)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA5.52IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs88BB%12.3
TBR vs RHP
wRC+119 (above avg)K%20.7 (avg)HH%34.5 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR+350+1.5 (-250)O4.5 (-141)TOR-400-1.5 (+196)U4.5 (+114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-112+0.5 (-156)O4.5 (-114)TOR-112-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTBRO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)TORO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+118)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCasey Legumina——Shane Bieber4.5 (+125 / -155)16.5 (-112 / -112)
Shane Bieber · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs W7.08633011
W7.08633011Jul 18vs W6.08063200
W6.08063200Jul 10@ W4.29746322
W4.29746322Jul 4@ L4.08936377
L4.08936377Jun 28vs L5.19245422
L5.19245422SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane Bieber
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR6.02.253.04.01.0(2)
home starts6.01.494.33.72.0(3)
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 8-1 vs TOR this season (9 games).
- TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 1-8 vs TBR this season (9 games).
- TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR have lost 4 straight.
- TOR are 2-3 in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 1-2 in Shane Bieber's last 3 home starts.
- TOR average 3.0 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.3 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.38 (good)ERA 2.702d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 4.622d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
Flags · 7
- TBR — Casey Legumina: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- TOR — Shane Bieber: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TOR — Shane Bieber: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TBR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TOR bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TOR — Shane Bieber: 2026-07-04: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TOR — Shane Bieber: recent opponents low-K: SEA 18%, SDP 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
TBR @ TOR o8.5 (-110)
Strong over case with multiple signals aligning. Bieber is in acute struggle: recent ERA 9.51, xERA 4.71, ERA 5.52 (ERA > xERA means he's genuinely bad, not just unlucky). HH% 48%, BB% 12.3% — batters squaring him up AND taking free bases. His 3-start ERA is skewed by a blowup but even the 'better' starts show 5.1IP/2ER and 3.2IP/4ER — not good. TBR offense is avg (wRC+ 106) vs RHP, but facing a struggling Bieber with a 4.9 IP/gs average means this goes to TOR bullpen (xERA 3.70, ERA 5.44) early. Seymour has flipped his season around (recent ERA 3.24 vs season ERA 8.49) but his HH% 46% and Barrel% 14% remain dangerous — TOR offense, even at wRC+ 46 vs LHP (poor), can still make contact (HH% 43.3%). Both bullpens are leaky (TBR xERA 3.52, TOR xERA 3.70; TOR ERA 5.44 is alarming). Both teams' bullpens are flagged as stressed/elevated. The park is Rogers Centre (domed/open air — neutral). Total at 8.5 is achievable: Bieber's implosion risk alone pushes expected runs over 5+, and Seymour's high contact rates suggest TOR bullpen exposure. Over signals: both xERAs ≥ 4.70, Bieber recent ERA >> xERA (struggling acutely), both bullpens average or worse, Bieber's avg IP only 4.9 means heavy bullpen exposure from TOR side.
TOR Team Total o3.5 (-140)
Shane Bieber is in acute crisis: recent ERA 9.51 (even discounting the 7-ER outlier, his other recent starts are 2ER/5.1IP and 4ER/3.2IP — still well below average), xERA 4.71, HH% 48%, BB% 12%, and he's only averaging 4.9 IP/gs. TBR offense is hot (wRC+ 119 vs RHP in L12). Casey Legumina is a NO STATS disqualifier for any bet depending on him holding TBR down. With Bieber struggling badly and Legumina unknown, scoring is likely from both sides. TOR team total over 3.5 at -140 is solid: TBR's bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.38) so TBR likely scores, and Legumina's unknown status means this is a TOR-scoring bet purely on Bieber's inability to suppress runs — TOR's offense vs a struggling Bieber is the edge. TOR's L5 avg RS in Bieber's starts is only 3.0, but those may predate his current acute decline.
ARI @ STL✓5:15 PM · Busch Stadium
ARI @ STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Brandon Pfaadt R
xERA2.41 (elite)K%17.2 (avg)HH%32.7 (good)Barrel%1.9 (elite)ERA2.30IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs79BB%0.0
STL vs RHP
wRC+51 (poor)K%24.3 (below avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
Michael McGreevy R
xERA3.56 (good)K%19.4 (avg)HH%47.3 (poor)Barrel%14.5 (below avg)ERA1.93IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs90BB%4.2
ARI vs RHP
wRC+117 (above avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+104-1.5 (+172)O7.5 (-115)STL-120-1.5 (+169)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+102+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+108)STL-125-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)STLO3.5 (-128)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Pfaadt3.5 (+104 / -122)16.5 (-122 / -106)Michael McGreevy3.5 (+120 / -138)17.5 (-112 / -112)
Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs W5.18736022
W5.18736022Jul 11@ 
W5.17726022
W5.17726022Jul 6@ W5.07264000
W5.07264000Jun 30vs W5.16623111
W5.16623111Jun 3vs L1.0*3713222
L1.0*3713222Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 17@ W6.19456112
W6.19456112Jul 8vs 
W6.19065111
W6.19065111Jul 1@ L6.08733122
L6.08733122Jun 26vs 
L6.09445100
L6.09445100Jun 19@ 
L5.09528155
L5.09528155SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Pfaadt
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.82.604.75.00.3(3)
at STL5.25.195.05.01.0(1)
Michael McGreevy
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI6.11.485.06.01.0(1)
home starts6.01.495.05.00.7(3)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 4-3 vs STL this season (7 games).
- ARI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 2-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 away starts.
- ARI average 6.6 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 6.7 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 3-4 vs ARI this season (7 games).
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 2-3 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 3.2 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 2.2 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 3.702d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
STL
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 3.302d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Flags · 4
- STL — Michael McGreevy: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- STL — Michael McGreevy: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ARI bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-03, 2026-05-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
ARI ML (+102)
Multiple edges align for Arizona. Pfaadt is elite and scorching hot (recent ERA 0.89, xERA 2.41) with a strong matchup vs STL (2.60 ERA in 3 career starts vs them). STL offense is dangerously cold (wRC+ 46 in L12, worst in this slate) and striking out at 24.2% vs RHP. McGreevy's HH% 47% and Barrel% 15% are alarming contact-quality flags, and his recent ERA (3.71) is nearly identical to xERA (3.56) — no luck masking here. ARI bullpen is solid (xERA 3.25). STL averaging only 2.2 RS in home starts this stretch, going 2-3 in those. ARI team trends show 8-2 L10 with 6.7 RS in away starts. Getting ARI at +102 is mispriced given the pitching and offensive mismatch — the market is treating this closer than it should be.
STL Team Total u3.5 (+114)
Pure Pfaadt dominance bet isolated from game outcome or ARI bullpen. STL wRC+ 46 vs RHP in L12 is the coldest offense on the slate. Pfaadt's recent ERA is 0.89 over his last 3 starts, xERA is 2.41 — elite. He has a 2.60 ERA in 3 career starts vs STL. STL averages only 2.2 RS per game in home starts under their current stretch. Getting +114 on STL Under 3.5 is excellent value — this line should be -130 or worse given Pfaadt's form and STL's offensive futility.
Brandon Pfaadt o3.5 Ks (+106)
Pfaadt averages 4.7 K/gs vs STL historically. STL's K% vs RHP is 24.2%, which is above average — a genuine strikeout-prone lineup. His recent average is only 4.0 K/start, but his last three opponents (SDP, SFG, LAD) are not particularly high-K teams, and the LAD outing was only 1 IP. Adjusted for STL's 24.2% K rate, expectation rises toward 5+. Getting Over 3.5 at +106 is strong value — this line is too low given his baseline vs a strikeout-prone STL lineup, the historical matchup K rate (4.7/gs), and his elite recent form.
ARI @ STL u7.5 (-115)
Pfaadt is elite and historically dominant vs STL (2.60 ERA, 3gs) and is scorching hot (recent ERA 0.89). McGreevy has a strong home record (1.49 ERA at home, 6.0 IP/gs) and a 1.48 ERA in his one outing vs ARI. STL offense is ice-cold (wRC+ 51 in L12 vs RHP) — the worst in this slate. Both bullpens are solid (ARI 3.60 xERA, STL 3.14 xERA). McGreevy's HH%/Barrel% flags are concerns but Pfaadt's dominance limits STL's scoring ceiling severely. With a cold STL offense and two capable starters, this game projects well under the number. Three clear under signals: elite Pfaadt, strong STL bullpen, and a historically low-scoring STL offense in L12.
KCR @ 
DET✓6:40 PM · Comerica Park
KCR @ DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Randy Dobnak R
xERA4.95 (below avg)K%11.3 (poor)HH%40.4 (below avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA1.93IP/gs14.0 IP/gsH/gs13.0PC/gs85BB%12.9
DET vs RHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%24.4 (below avg)HH%35.8 (avg)
Troy Melton R
xERA2.24 (elite)K%37.3 (elite)HH%44.4 (below avg)Barrel%2.8 (elite)ERA0.52IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs90BB%9.0
KCR vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%21.4 (avg)HH%44.7 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+194+1.5 (-105)O8.5 (-105)DET-225-1.5 (-110)U8.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+195+1.5 (-146)O4.5 (-118)DET-250-1.5 (+112)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO3.5 (+114)U3.5 (-140)O1.5 (+105)U1.5 (-135)DETO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (+105)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URandy Dobnak3.5 (+131 / -166)14.5 (-133 / +100)Troy Melton5.5 (-140 / +113)17.5 (-150 / +124)
Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs W4.19634411
W4.19634411Jul 8@ L5.2*9523300
L5.2*9523300Jul 2vs L4.0*6426122
L4.0*6426122Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 17@ W5.29494411
W5.29494411Jul 8vs 
W5.19194101
W5.19194101Jul 1@ 
W6.18472100
W6.18472100Jun 25vs L6.08862011
L6.08862011Jun 20vs W6.08451311
W6.08451311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Troy Melton
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR—
home starts5.71.056.72.31.3(3)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 2-4 vs DET this season (6 games).
- KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 1-0 in Randy Dobnak's last 1 starts.
- KCR average 6.0 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 1 starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 4-2 vs KCR this season (6 games).
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 4-1 in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 3-1 in Troy Melton's last 4 home starts.
- DET average 3.8 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET average 5.2 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 4 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 5.52 (poor)ERA 6.652d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.49 (good)ERA 2.272d stress Stressed (7.3 IP/1g)
Flags · 5
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- DET — Troy Melton: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.52 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- DET bullpen stressed (7.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-08, 2026-07-02 — may affect pitch count or availability
KCR @ DET F5 u4.5 (-114)
Troy Melton is elite and blazing hot: xERA 2.24, recent ERA 0.99, averaging 6.0 K/start over last 3 with pitch counts under 90 (84/88/84), indicating he'll go deep cleanly. His home ERA is 1.05 in 3 starts. The KCR bullpen (xERA 5.37) is a disqualifier for full-game ML bets on DET, but F5 isolates Melton entirely. On the other side, Dobnak is wild (BB% 12.9%) but has kept runs off the board (recent ERA 2.20). DET offense is only wRC+ 95 vs RHP and KCR's offense, while above-avg (wRC+ 126), faces a dominant Melton. The F5 is largely about Melton suppressing KCR for 5 innings — recent opponents were high-K (NYY 26%, ATH 27%, LAA 25%), and KCR's K% vs RHP is 20.9%, slightly below those levels, meaning we might calibrate KCR Ks down modestly. But the run-suppression case is solid — Melton hasn't allowed more than 1 ER in any of his last 3 starts. F5 Under 4.5 at -114 captures Melton's dominance without exposing to KCR's bullpen.
KCR Team Total u3.5 (-135)
Troy Melton is elite (xERA 2.24, recent ERA 0.99 HOT) with a dominant home record (1.05 ERA, 5.7 IP/gs at home). KCR's offense is above average (wRC+ 121) but Melton's elite contact suppression (Barrel% 2.8) and high K rate (37.3%) limit the ceiling. DET's bullpen is also excellent (xERA 3.49). With Dobnak's high BB% (12.9%) potentially shortening his start, the KCR bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.52) meaning KCR loses the bullpen battle badly — but for the KCR team total we only care about Melton and DET's pen holding KCR down, which is strongly supported. At -135 for KCR scoring under 3.5, with Melton this sharp at home, this represents solid value.