MLB Game Overviews

Saturday, July 18, 2026

Updated 09:10 UTC · Odds Updated 09:08 UTC

AI Picks · 7 Bets · Jul 18
MIN @ CHC o9.0 (-108)
Matthew Boyd has a terrible xERA (5.28) despite a modest ERA of 3.63 — the market is underpricing the run risk he represents. MIN is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 132 L12, K% 30.3 — they strike out a lot but hit hard). CHC bullpen is a significant liability (xERA 5.34). MIN has averaged 8.0 RS in Bradley's last 5 starts with a 5-0 team record. CHC has averaged 6.8 RS in Boyd's last 5. Both teams combining for ~14-15 RS/game in these pitcher trends is well above the 9.0 total. Boyd's season ERA << xERA signals market is underestimating run risk. CHC park is neutral (APF 99). The main counter is Taj Bradley being elite (xERA 2.38), but Boyd's xERA gap and the bad CHC bullpen provide multiple over signals.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
NYM Team Total u1.5 (-115)
Jesus Luzardo is an absolute monster right now (xERA 1.11 — elite, recent ERA 1.98, averaging 9.3 K/start over last 3). NYM offense vs LHP is average at best (wRC+ 97 L12). Luzardo has faced NYM 3 times and holds a 4.76 ERA historically, but current form is dramatically better. NYM has scored just 3.3 RS/game away in SP's last 3. The NYM bullpen is historically bad (xERA 5.67) making the full-game total unreliable, so targeting the F5 NYM team total under is the purest expression of Luzardo's dominance without bullpen noise. -115 is reasonable for an elite pitcher in peak form against an average lineup.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
STL @ ARI F5 u4.5 (+106)
Pfaadt is elite (xERA 2.42, recent ERA 1.76, 0-1-1.7 BB%) and historically dominates STL (2.21 ERA in 2 starts). STL is cold vs RHP (wRC+ 75 L12). Despite May struggling, ARI offense is also below avg vs RHP (wRC+ 83) and won't face May long. The F5 edge is Pfaadt shutting down a cold STL lineup — Under 4.5 at +106 provides value. May's short outing concern mostly hurts the over once the bullpen enters (ARI bullpen xERA 2.56 is elite), not the F5 under. May's matchup history vs ARI is good (2.21 ERA) so the STL side of the F5 total is manageable. Both offenses are below-average in L12, and Pfaadt is as locked in as any pitcher in baseball right now.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
HOU Team Total u4.5 (-140)
Trevor Rogers is HOT (recent ERA 1.41, last 3: 6.1IP/1ER, 7.0IP/0ER, 6.0IP/2ER) and has previously dominated HOU (1.29 ERA, 7 IP, 9 Ks in 1 gs). HOU is cold vs LHP (wRC+ 57 L12 — extremely poor) and their own starter Arrighetti is a disaster (xERA 7.55, recent ERA 10.80, Barrel% 16, BB% 19). Rogers is the clear pitching edge. However, odds at -140 exceed the -150 threshold — flagging with line_warning.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider BAL F5 ML -110 as a cheaper alternative expressing the same Rogers dominance edge
F5 ML BAL -110 (-110)
Trevor Rogers is in dominant form (recent ERA 1.41 over last 3 starts, averaging 5.7 K/start) facing a HOU lineup that is ice-cold vs LHP (wRC+ 57 L12). Rogers has a proven track record vs HOU (1.29 ERA, 9 Ks in 7 IP). Opposing Arrighetti has a catastrophic xERA 7.55 and recent ERA 10.80 with command issues (BB% 19%). BAL offense (wRC+ 108 vs RHP) is solid and should score early. F5 ML captures Rogers' excellence and BAL's offense attacking Arrighetti without bullpen exposure. -110 is excellent value for such a lopsided F5 edge.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
SFG @ SEA u6.5 (+104)
Logan Webb is scorching hot (recent ERA 0.78 over last 3 starts: 7IP/0ER, 8IP/2ER, 8IP/0ER — all quality deep outings). His xERA 4.88 is inflated by one bad outlier start (7 ER in 3 IP on 07-03 per flag), and his recent performance is dramatically better than xERA suggests. T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly (APF 92). SEA offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 77 L12). SFG bullpen xERA is strong (2.58). SEA offense has only averaged 4.4 RS in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts at home. While Woo is struggling recently (recent ERA 6.75), one outlier start (5 ER in 4 IP on 06-24) skews that. SFG offense is average vs RHP (wRC+ 112) but Webb should neutralize SEA. Getting +104 on an under with Webb in this form in a pitcher's park is excellent value.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
DET -1.5 (-110)
Tarik Skubal (xERA 2.01, elite) faces G. Rodriguez (xERA 5.70, poor — recent ERA 6.77, HH% 52%, short outings). Rodriguez's home ERA this season is 9.52 in 3 home starts. LAA offense is hot vs LHP (wRC+ 121) but Rodriguez is the bigger liability here — DET offense, while below avg overall (wRC+ 87 vs RHP), benefits from Rodriguez's extreme run-allowance rate. DET bullpen is elite (xERA 2.47). LAA bullpen is poor (xERA 4.16). Despite Skubal's recent struggles (recent ERA 4.19), his xERA 2.01 indicates true elite quality and he's facing a strikeout-prone LAA lineup. The -1.5 at -110 is exceptional value given the massive quality gap between the two starters, the bullpen disparity, and Rodriguez's home track record.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
PIT @ CLE
1:10 PM · Progressive FieldRainy, Windy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jared Jones R
xERA2.02 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA2.45IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs77BB%5.6
CLE vs RHP
wRC+99 (avg)K%26.7 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Gavin Williams R
xERA2.97 (elite)K%32.4 (elite)HH%41.5 (below avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA3.78IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs95BB%8.5
PIT vs RHP
wRC+142 (elite)K%23.5 (avg)HH%41.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+108+1.5 (-205)O7.5 (-108)CLE-125-1.5 (+184)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+105+0.5 (-148)O3.5 (-146)CLE-128-0.5 (+114)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO3.5 (-111)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)CLEO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UJared Jones5.5 (+125 / +132)Gavin Williams7.5 (+124 / -149)
Jared Jones · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8vs ATLL6.07780000
Jul 2@ PHIW4.07362211
Jun 27vs CINL4.28144134
Jun 21@ COLW3.04531211
Jun 15@ ATHL4.07548155
Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 9@ MINW7.0103113122
Jul 3vs CHWW4.27965233
Jun 28vs SEAW5.010366323
Jun 22@ CHWL5.09585122
Jun 17@ MILL5.08747277
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT
home starts4.75.075.75.02.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 5.54 (poor)ERA 4.562d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 2.472d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy, Windy
76°F, Light Showers, Wind 15 mph WNW
APF 100 — Neutral · Rain possible (33%)
Flags · 7
  • PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.54 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • PIT bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • CLE bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • PIT — Jared Jones: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • WEATHER: rain risk 33% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
  • WEATHER: wind: Cross Wind L 15 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
MIN @ CHC
2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Taj Bradley R
xERA2.38 (elite)K%37.0 (elite)HH%43.9 (below avg)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA1.89IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs99BB%6.9
CHC vs RHP
wRC+115 (above avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%34.6 (below avg)
Matthew Boyd L
xERA5.28 (poor)K%16.0 (below avg)HH%44.6 (below avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs87BB%4.0
MIN vs LHP
wRC+132 (elite)K%30.3 (poor)HH%50.9 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+122+1.5 (-168)O9.0 (-108)CHC-142-1.5 (+142)U9.0 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+114+0.5 (-132)O4.5 (-128)CHC-135-0.5 (+102)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+130)U2.5 (-166)CHCO4.5 (-111)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTaj Bradley5.5 (-142 / +122)16.5 (-123 / -102)Matthew Boyd5.5 (+126 / +132)16.5 (-112 / -112)
Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs LAAW7.09966222
Jul 7vs CLEW7.0101103011
Jul 1@ HOUW5.097114311
Jun 26vs COLW7.09973322
Jun 20@ ARIW5.09143222
Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12@ CINW6.19236144
Jul 7@ BALW6.09373200
Jun 30vs SDPW5.07628033
Jun 25@ NYMW4.27644400
May 3vs ARIW6.09454122
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Matthew Boyd
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN
home starts5.14.144.05.70.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.052d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 5.34 (poor)ERA 5.932d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
88°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph NW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 3
  • CHC — Matthew Boyd: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CHC — Matthew Boyd: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • CHC bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.34 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
MIN @ CHC o9.0 (-108)
Matthew Boyd has a terrible xERA (5.28) despite a modest ERA of 3.63 — the market is underpricing the run risk he represents. MIN is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 132 L12, K% 30.3 — they strike out a lot but hit hard). CHC bullpen is a significant liability (xERA 5.34). MIN has averaged 8.0 RS in Bradley's last 5 starts with a 5-0 team record. CHC has averaged 6.8 RS in Boyd's last 5. Both teams combining for ~14-15 RS/game in these pitcher trends is well above the 9.0 total. Boyd's season ERA << xERA signals market is underestimating run risk. CHC park is neutral (APF 99). The main counter is Taj Bradley being elite (xERA 2.38), but Boyd's xERA gap and the bad CHC bullpen provide multiple over signals.
CHW @ TOR
3:07 PM · Rogers Centre (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Davis Martin R
xERA5.89 (poor)K%8.5 (poor)HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA4.97IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs81BB%13.6
TOR vs RHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%17.8 (above avg)HH%31.0 (below avg)
Shane Bieber R
xERA7.41 (poor)K%16.4 (below avg)HH%54.4 (poor)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA7.07IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs93BB%14.9
CHW vs RHP
wRC+116 (above avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%43.5 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW-115-1.5 (+146)O8.5 (-112)TOR-102+1.5 (-170)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW-120-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-122)TOR-104+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)TORO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+112)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDavis Martin3.5 (-132 / +126)Shane Bieber4.5 (-142 / +119)15.5 (-120 / -120)
Davis Martin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8vs BOSL4.08426255
Jul 2@ CLEL3.17306522
Jun 27vs KCRW5.18734100
Jun 21@ DETL6.07745311
Jun 16@ NYYL3.18848399
Shane Bieber · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 10@ SDPW4.29746322
Jul 4@ SEAL4.08936377
Jun 28vs TEXL5.19245422
Jun 23vs HOUL3.27529044
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Davis Martin
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR6.00.006.04.02.0(1)
at TOR
Shane Bieber
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW
home starts4.45.413.06.32.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 2.73 (elite)ERA 2.322d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.19 (good)ERA 4.222d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 8
  • CHW — Davis Martin: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • TOR — Shane Bieber: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • TOR — Shane Bieber: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • CHW bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • TOR bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CHW — Davis Martin: 2026-07-08: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • CHW — Davis Martin: recent opponents high-K: CLE 27%, BOS 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • TOR — Shane Bieber: 2026-07-04: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
RAIN RISK 44% — disqualifying factor. Game eliminated.
CIN @ COL
3:10 PM · Coors FieldHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Rhett Lowder R
xERA4.16 (avg)K%9.4 (poor)HH%26.1 (elite)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA1.29IP/gs7.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs35BB%15.6
COL vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%17.1 (above avg)HH%35.1 (avg)
Tomoyuki Sugano R
xERA4.14 (avg)K%12.7 (below avg)HH%37.3 (avg)Barrel%8.5 (avg)ERA9.00IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs89BB%4.2
CIN vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%28.0 (poor)HH%29.9 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN-112-1.5 (+132)O13.0 (-105)COL-104+1.5 (-150)U12.5 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN-115-0.5 (+104)O6.5 (-138)COL-104+0.5 (-135)U6.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCINO6.5 (+100)U6.5 (-120)O3.5 (+110)U3.5 (-140)COLO6.5 (+110)U5.5 (+104)O3.5 (+105)U3.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/URhett Lowder3.5 (+135 / -165)Tomoyuki Sugano3.5 (+127 / +116)
Rhett Lowder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs CHCL2.0*3010200
Jul 8vs PHIW2.0*3623011
Jul 4vs BALL3.0*4002300
Jun 30@ MILL4.282811166
Jun 24vs MILL5.210068133
Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ MINL5.08528177
Jun 20vs PITW6.08554011
Jun 14@ ATHW5.09728268
Jun 9vs CHCW5.09336233
Jun 2@ LAAW5.09655222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tomoyuki Sugano
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.10.002.04.03.0(1)
home starts5.33.383.05.71.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 2.31 (elite)ERA 3.022d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 2.142d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
92°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NE
APF 116 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
  • CIN — Rhett Lowder: small sample (7.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • CIN — Rhett Lowder: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • CIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • CIN — Rhett Lowder: 18 days since last start (2026-06-30) — may not be fully stretched out
  • CIN — Rhett Lowder: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-12, 2026-07-08 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: 22 days since last start (2026-06-26) — may not be fully stretched out
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 116) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling (Lowder recent ERA 8.62, Sugano recent ERA 6.60) at Coors (APF 116) — over is heavily implied. But the total is already set at 13.0/12.5, which fully prices in the expected chaos. No edge at those lines.
NYM @ PHI
4:05 PM · Citizens Bank ParkRainy, Hot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Sean Manaea L
xERA4.29 (avg)K%19.2 (avg)HH%42.3 (below avg)Barrel%11.5 (below avg)ERA5.09IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs98BB%5.5
PHI vs LHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%30.9 (poor)HH%29.2 (poor)
Jesus Luzardo L
xERA1.11 (elite)K%40.4 (elite)HH%40.7 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA0.64IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs96BB%3.9
NYM vs LHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+146+1.5 (-141)O8.5 (-115)PHI-164-1.5 (+130)U8.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+154+0.5 (-108)O4.5 (-113)PHI-176-0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYMO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (-104)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)PHIO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/USean Manaea5.5 (+124 / -146)Jesus Luzardo6.5 (-136 / +119)
Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 9vs KCRW7.09766123
Jul 4@ ATLL5.010845136
Jun 29@ TORL5.29043222
Jun 24vs CHCL3.08646234
Jun 18@ PHIW5.19556123
Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 9@ CINW7.096112200
Jul 4@ KCRW6.09594011
Jun 28@ NYMW5.09664311
Jun 23@ WSNW6.2104135315
Jun 16vs MIAW7.010695222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Manaea
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI4.85.036.05.70.7(3)
at PHI5.05.355.05.51.0(2)
Jesus Luzardo
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.74.767.04.72.0(3)
home starts6.34.265.35.72.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 5.67 (poor)ERA 9.132d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
PHI
xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 7.652d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy, Hot
94°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 10 mph SSW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (23%)
Flags · 2
  • NYM bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.67 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • WEATHER: rain risk 23% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
NYM Team Total u1.5 (-115)
Jesus Luzardo is an absolute monster right now (xERA 1.11 — elite, recent ERA 1.98, averaging 9.3 K/start over last 3). NYM offense vs LHP is average at best (wRC+ 97 L12). Luzardo has faced NYM 3 times and holds a 4.76 ERA historically, but current form is dramatically better. NYM has scored just 3.3 RS/game away in SP's last 3. The NYM bullpen is historically bad (xERA 5.67) making the full-game total unreliable, so targeting the F5 NYM team total under is the purest expression of Luzardo's dominance without bullpen noise. -115 is reasonable for an elite pitcher in peak form against an average lineup.
STL @ ARI
4:10 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Dustin May R
xERA3.51 (good)K%25.5 (good)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA6.75IP/gs3.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs66BB%12.8
ARI vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Brandon Pfaadt R
xERA2.42 (elite)K%16.7 (below avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA1.72IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs72BB%1.7
STL vs RHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%23.1 (avg)HH%40.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+100-1.5 (+168)O9.0 (-105)ARI-118+1.5 (-190)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-110-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-138)ARI-108+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)ARIO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDustin May3.5 (-122 / +118)15.5 (+100 / -125)Brandon Pfaadt3.5 (-130 / +106)15.5 (+106 / -140)
Dustin May · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs ATLL4.08442422
Jul 6vs MILL4.28174000
Jul 2@ ATLW0.23415255
Jun 21@ KCRW2.04426166
Jun 15vs SDPW9.010191100
Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@ LADW5.17726022
Jul 6@ SDPW5.07264000
Jun 30vs SFGW5.16623111
Jun 3vs LADL1.0*3713222
May 29@ SEAL1.2*3133011
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dustin May
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI6.12.216.56.01.0(2)
at ARI6.22.905.07.01.0(1)
Brandon Pfaadt
IPERAKHBB
vs STL6.12.215.54.50.5(2)
home starts5.11.762.03.01.0(1)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 3.402d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 2.56 (elite)ERA 2.152d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 6
  • STL — Dustin May: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • STL — Dustin May: avg 3.1 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
  • ARI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • STL — Dustin May: 2026-07-02: 5 ER in 0.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-03, 2026-05-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
STL @ ARI F5 u4.5 (+106)
Pfaadt is elite (xERA 2.42, recent ERA 1.76, 0-1-1.7 BB%) and historically dominates STL (2.21 ERA in 2 starts). STL is cold vs RHP (wRC+ 75 L12). Despite May struggling, ARI offense is also below avg vs RHP (wRC+ 83) and won't face May long. The F5 edge is Pfaadt shutting down a cold STL lineup — Under 4.5 at +106 provides value. May's short outing concern mostly hurts the over once the bullpen enters (ARI bullpen xERA 2.56 is elite), not the F5 under. May's matchup history vs ARI is good (2.21 ERA) so the STL side of the F5 total is manageable. Both offenses are below-average in L12, and Pfaadt is as locked in as any pitcher in baseball right now.
TEX @ ATL
4:10 PM · Truist ParkHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA3.07 (good)K%28.1 (elite)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA8.36IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs82BB%4.7
ATL vs LHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%21.2 (avg)HH%46.8 (elite)
Owen Murphy R
xERA2.64 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)HH%77.8 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA2.25IP/gs4.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs34BB%0.0
TEX vs RHP
wRC+88 (below avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX-104-1.5 (+155)O9.0 (-105)ATL-112+1.5 (-186)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-114-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-135)ATL-110+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)ATLO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UMacKenzie Gore5.5 (+118 / -136)Owen Murphy
MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs HOUW4.06542111
Jul 8vs LAAL5.09079177
Jul 1@ CLEL5.09277155
Jun 25@ TORW7.09854133
Jun 20vs SDPL6.09565211
Owen Murphy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@ STLL3.0*4730000
Jul 6vs NYML1.0*2011012
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL3.55.074.03.03.5(2)
at ATL2.018.003.04.04.0(1)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.92 (avg)ERA 5.062d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 4.942d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
93°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph NNW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • ATL — Owen Murphy: small sample (4.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • ATL — Owen Murphy: HH% 78% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • ATL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: recent opponents high-K: CLE 29%, LAA 30% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • ATL — Owen Murphy: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-11, 2026-07-06 — may affect pitch count or availability
AI Analysis
Owen Murphy is an extreme small sample (4 IP over 3 starts, 2 of which are bullpen appearances) — disqualified from betting around him. Gore has high HH%/Barrel% concerns and has historically struggled badly at this park (18.00 ERA, 2 IP). No clean play.
BAL @ HOU
4:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Trevor Rogers L
xERA3.97 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%40.4 (below avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA1.04IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs90BB%10.1
HOU vs LHP
wRC+57 (poor)K%24.0 (below avg)HH%26.9 (poor)
S. Arrighetti R
xERA7.55 (poor)K%20.6 (avg)HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%15.8 (poor)ERA11.77IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs87BB%19.1
BAL vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%21.8 (avg)HH%43.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-106-1.5 (+153)O9.0 (+100)HOU-110+1.5 (-176)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-110-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-130)HOU-112+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBALO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)HOUO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrevor Rogers4.5 (+104 / -114)17.5 (-119 / -112)S. Arrighetti5.5 (-145 / +115)15.5 (+130 / -166)
Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 9vs CHCW6.08945211
Jul 3@ CINW5.09342500
Jun 26vs WSNW6.18775011
Jun 20@ LADW7.09661200
Jun 14vs SDPL6.08245222
S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8@ WSNL4.09427688
Jul 3vs TBRL6.07342111
Jun 26@ DETL3.09375588
Jun 20vs CLEL6.09086066
Jun 14@ KCRL6.010178144
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Trevor Rogers
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU7.01.299.05.03.0(1)
at HOU
S. Arrighetti
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL5.23.462.06.00.0(1)
home starts5.36.195.04.70.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.38 (elite)ERA 3.292d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 2.50 (elite)ERA 3.472d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
  • HOU — S. Arrighetti: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • HOU — S. Arrighetti: BB% 19% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • BAL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
HOU Team Total u4.5 (-140)
Trevor Rogers is HOT (recent ERA 1.41, last 3: 6.1IP/1ER, 7.0IP/0ER, 6.0IP/2ER) and has previously dominated HOU (1.29 ERA, 7 IP, 9 Ks in 1 gs). HOU is cold vs LHP (wRC+ 57 L12 — extremely poor) and their own starter Arrighetti is a disaster (xERA 7.55, recent ERA 10.80, Barrel% 16, BB% 19). Rogers is the clear pitching edge. However, odds at -140 exceed the -150 threshold — flagging with line_warning.
F5 ML BAL -110 (-110)
Trevor Rogers is in dominant form (recent ERA 1.41 over last 3 starts, averaging 5.7 K/start) facing a HOU lineup that is ice-cold vs LHP (wRC+ 57 L12). Rogers has a proven track record vs HOU (1.29 ERA, 9 Ks in 7 IP). Opposing Arrighetti has a catastrophic xERA 7.55 and recent ERA 10.80 with command issues (BB% 19%). BAL offense (wRC+ 108 vs RHP) is solid and should score early. F5 ML captures Rogers' excellence and BAL's offense attacking Arrighetti without bullpen exposure. -110 is excellent value for such a lopsided F5 edge.
TBR @ BOS
4:10 PM · Fenway ParkRainy, Windy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ian Seymour L
xERA3.55 (good)K%36.5 (elite)HH%37.1 (avg)Barrel%8.6 (avg)ERA5.52IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs85BB%6.3
BOS vs LHP
wRC+133 (elite)K%18.3 (above avg)HH%28.0 (poor)
Patrick Sandoval L
xERA3.29 (good)K%26.3 (good)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA2.08IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs65BB%5.3
TBR vs LHP
wRC+101 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%30.2 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR+102-1.5 (+156)O9.5 (-109)BOS-115+1.5 (-180)U9.5 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-104+0.5 (-146)O5.5 (-102)BOS-120-0.5 (+112)U5.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTBRO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)BOSO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (-102)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UIan Seymour4.5 (-156 / +123)Patrick Sandoval3.5 (-140 / +113)
Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs SEAL3.17836356
Jul 7vs NYYW5.194125033
Jul 2@ KCRW6.08383111
Jun 25vs KCRW6.2*9070100
Jun 20vs WSNL5.08147033
Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 9@ CHWW4.16555111
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ian Seymour
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS4.02.255.01.01.0(1)
at BOS
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 3.382d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
BOS
xERA 2.91 (elite)ERA 3.122d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Rainy, Windy
75°F, Overcast, Wind 18 mph S
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (35%)
Flags · 11
  • BOS — Patrick Sandoval: small sample (4.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • BOS — Patrick Sandoval: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • BOS bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-25, 2026-06-14 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • TBR — Ian Seymour: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • TBR — Ian Seymour: 2026-07-12: 5 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • TBR — Ian Seymour: low-K outing 2026-07-12 (3 Ks vs avg 7.7) — stuff was flat that day
  • TBR — Ian Seymour: recent opponents high-K: NYY 33%, SEA 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • BOS — Patrick Sandoval: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • WEATHER: rain risk 35% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
  • WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 18 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
AI Analysis
RAIN RISK 35% — disqualifying factor. Game eliminated.
SDP @ KCR
4:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Griffin Canning R
xERA2.87 (elite)K%21.4 (avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%2.6 (elite)ERA3.46IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs74BB%7.1
KCR vs RHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%42.8 (above avg)
Randy Dobnak
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
SDP
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP-118-1.5 (+135)O11.0 (-105)KCR+100+1.5 (-154)U10.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-110-0.5 (+110)O6.5 (+108)KCR-106+0.5 (-144)U6.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USDPO5.5 (-106)U5.5 (-120)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)KCRO5.5 (+110)U4.5 (+104)O2.5 (-140)U2.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UGriffin Canning3.5 (-137 / +107)Randy Dobnak
Griffin Canning · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 9vs ARIL4.27457022
Jul 4@ LADL4.0*7342211
Jun 29@ CHCL4.17535222
Jun 23vs ATLW0.2*4024144
Jun 17@ STLW4.1*7724311
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 3.49 (good)ERA 6.332d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 4.98 (below avg)ERA 4.742d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph SSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
  • KCR — Randy Dobnak: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • SDP bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • KCR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SDP — Griffin Canning: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-04, 2026-06-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • SDP — Griffin Canning: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • SDP — Griffin Canning: 2026-06-12: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Randy Dobnak has NO STATS — disqualifying factor per rules. Cannot bet any market involving a no-stats starter on the opposing side.
MIA @ MIL
4:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Max Meyer R
xERA3.13 (good)K%20.0 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)ERA1.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs82BB%5.7
MIL vs RHP
wRC+103 (avg)K%21.6 (avg)HH%43.7 (above avg)
Shane Drohan L
xERA3.18 (good)K%20.3 (avg)HH%43.6 (below avg)Barrel%12.7 (below avg)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs82BB%4.0
MIA vs LHP
wRC+134 (elite)K%17.9 (above avg)HH%33.8 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+114+1.5 (-188)O8.0 (-108)MIL-130-1.5 (+158)U8.0 (-107)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-102+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+106)MIL-122-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)MILO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+114)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMax Meyer5.5 (-117 / -108)15.5 (-120 / -103)Shane Drohan4.5 (-122 / +100)16.5 (-119 / -111)
Max Meyer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7vs SEAW5.08044222
Jul 1@ COLL6.07856015
Jun 26@ STLW7.08952200
Jun 20vs SFGW5.09877222
Jun 14@ PITW6.010596311
Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@ PITL6.18365033
Jul 6@ STLW6.08526213
Jul 1vs CINW5.27876122
Jun 24@ CINW4.19855300
Jun 18vs CLEL5.09133311
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane Drohan
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA
home starts5.14.145.75.71.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 4.17 (avg)ERA 6.152d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 3.722d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph ENE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • MIL — Shane Drohan: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • MIL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • MIA — Max Meyer: 11 days since last start (2026-07-07) — may not be fully stretched out
  • MIL — Shane Drohan: low-K outing 2026-07-06 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
AI Analysis
Both starters are hot (Meyer recent ERA 1.50, Drohan recent ERA 1.89) and under is implied — but total is only 8.0, already reflecting decent pitching. MIA bullpen (xERA 4.17) is a concern for full-game under. F5 under at -138 offers poor value. No clean bet at a good price.
PIT @ CLE
7:10 PM · Progressive FieldHot, Windy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Braxton Ashcraft R
xERA5.41 (poor)K%30.4 (elite)HH%55.8 (poor)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA5.94IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs96BB%7.2
CLE vs RHP
wRC+99 (avg)K%26.7 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Logan Allen L
xERA3.57 (good)K%36.8 (elite)HH%54.5 (poor)Barrel%18.2 (poor)ERA0.00IP/gs4.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs83BB%5.3
PIT vs LHP
wRC+145 (elite)K%22.0 (avg)HH%33.3 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT-110-1.5 (+151)O8.0 (-102)CLE+100+1.5 (-170)U7.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderPITO3.5 (-135)U3.5 (+105)CLEO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (-105)
Braxton Ashcraft · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11vs MILW5.09865255
Jul 4@ WSNW5.29476211
Jun 29@ PHIW6.09785155
Jun 24vs SEAW6.086105011
Jun 17@ ATHW6.09374312
Logan Allen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 25vs WSNL4.0*8375102
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Allen
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.21.735.05.01.0(1)
home starts4.54.953.05.51.0(2)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 5.54 (poor)ERA 4.562d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 2.472d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot, Windy
93°F, Wind 17 mph
Flags · 11
  • PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • CLE — Logan Allen: small sample (4.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • CLE — Logan Allen: HH% 55% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CLE — Logan Allen: Barrel% 18% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.54 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • PIT bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • CLE bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • CLE — Logan Allen: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-25 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • WEATHER: rain chance 48% — monitor for delays
  • WEATHER: wind: Out 17 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
LAD @ NYY
8:08 PM · Yankee StadiumRainy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Emmet Sheehan R
xERA2.87 (elite)K%28.3 (elite)HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%5.6 (good)ERA2.45IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs94BB%10.0
NYY vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%45.2 (elite)
Ryan Weathers L
xERA3.23 (good)K%26.8 (good)HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA5.73IP/gs3.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs78BB%5.4
LAD vs LHP
wRC+149 (elite)K%17.2 (above avg)HH%44.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-112-1.5 (+146)O9.0 (-102)NYY-104+1.5 (-170)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-112-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-135)NYY-112+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULADO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)NYYO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UEmmet Sheehan5.5 (+108 / -129)Ryan Weathers5.5 (-108 / -115)
Emmet Sheehan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs ARIL5.110173123
Jul 5vs SDPL4.19653311
Jun 28@ SDPW5.08452211
Jun 21vs BALL3.18248366
Jun 14@ CHWL5.08584133
Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 10@ WSNW5.19166011
Jul 5vs MINL4.08866244
Jun 29vs DETL1.25537125
Jun 24@ DETW6.09766212
Jun 18vs CHWL6.18883111
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Weathers
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD
home starts3.85.585.75.31.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 3.30 (good)ERA 4.252d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 2.90 (elite)ERA 2.222d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
84°F, Overcast, Wind 12 mph SSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (32%)
Flags · 4
  • NYY — Ryan Weathers: avg 3.7 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
  • LAD — Emmet Sheehan: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • NYY — Ryan Weathers: recent opponents high-K: MIN 30%, WSN 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • WEATHER: rain risk 32% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
AI Analysis
RAIN RISK 32% — disqualifying factor. Game eliminated.
SFG @ SEA
8:08 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Logan Webb R
xERA4.88 (below avg)K%13.3 (below avg)HH%32.2 (good)Barrel%5.1 (good)ERA6.35IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs91BB%8.0
SEA vs RHP
wRC+77 (poor)K%24.9 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Bryan Woo R
xERA4.15 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)Barrel%5.8 (good)ERA5.87IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs93BB%5.7
SFG vs RHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%19.7 (above avg)HH%36.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+116+1.5 (-200)O7.0 (-102)SEA-135-1.5 (+169)U6.5 (+104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+110+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (-120)SEA-135-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (+120)U3.5 (-145)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)SEAO3.5 (-102)U3.5 (-125)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Webb5.5 (-112 / -106)18.5 (+108 / -143)Bryan Woo5.5 (-122 / +113)17.5 (-165 / +124)
Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8vs TORL7.010625255
Jul 3@ COLL3.076211277
Jun 27vs ATLW7.09261200
Jun 21@ MIAL8.010355122
Jun 14vs CHCW8.010677001
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ MIAL5.08759134
Jun 30vs LAAW6.110654122
Jun 24@ PITL4.08646255
Jun 18vs BALW7.08993100
Jun 11@ BALL5.08247177
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.06.006.05.01.0(1)
home starts6.70.907.73.00.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 2.58 (elite)ERA 5.712d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 2.702d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
74°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NNW
APF 92 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 7
  • SFG bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • SFG — Logan Webb: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • SFG — Logan Webb: 2026-07-03: 7 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 21) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • SFG — Logan Webb: recent opponents low-K: COL 17%, TOR 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
  • SEA — Bryan Woo: 11 days since last start (2026-07-07) — may not be fully stretched out
  • SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-06-24: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 92) — park suppresses offense, favor the under
SFG @ SEA u6.5 (+104)
Logan Webb is scorching hot (recent ERA 0.78 over last 3 starts: 7IP/0ER, 8IP/2ER, 8IP/0ER — all quality deep outings). His xERA 4.88 is inflated by one bad outlier start (7 ER in 3 IP on 07-03 per flag), and his recent performance is dramatically better than xERA suggests. T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly (APF 92). SEA offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 77 L12). SFG bullpen xERA is strong (2.58). SEA offense has only averaged 4.4 RS in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts at home. While Woo is struggling recently (recent ERA 6.75), one outlier start (5 ER in 4 IP on 06-24) skews that. SFG offense is average vs RHP (wRC+ 112) but Webb should neutralize SEA. Getting +104 on an under with Webb in this form in a pitcher's park is excellent value.
WSN @ ATH
10:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zack Littell R
xERA4.54 (below avg)K%19.6 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%11.9 (below avg)ERA2.40IP/gs15.0 IP/gsH/gs12.0PC/gs79BB%5.4
ATH vs RHP
wRC+58 (poor)K%29.1 (poor)HH%44.1 (above avg)
J.T. Ginn R
xERA4.11 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%25.6 (elite)Barrel%10.3 (avg)ERA6.91IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs84BB%15.2
WSN vs RHP
wRC+149 (elite)K%15.9 (elite)HH%42.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+110-1.5 (+155)O11.0 (+100)ATH-125-1.5 (+152)U10.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+102+0.5 (-130)O5.5 (-135)ATH-125-0.5 (+100)U5.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO5.5 (+114)U4.5 (+114)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)ATHO5.5 (+102)U5.5 (-130)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZack Littell2.5 (-159 / +124)J.T. Ginn4.5 (+134 / +125)15.5 (+104 / -120)
Zack Littell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 10vs NYYL4.0*6955011
Jul 4vs PITL6.0*8734111
Jun 28@ BALW5.08233222
Jun 23vs PHIL4.0*5955022
Jun 17vs KCRL5.09927244
J.T. Ginn · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12@ CHWL4.18676388
Jul 7@ DETL4.06142222
Jul 1vs LADW6.010443511
Jun 26@ LAAW6.08958133
Jun 20vs LAAL5.19856334
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
J.T. Ginn
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN
home starts5.72.114.05.03.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 4.83 (below avg)ERA 5.432d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 5.42 (poor)ERA 6.582d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
  • ATH — J.T. Ginn: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.42 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • ATH bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • WSN — Zack Littell: 20 days since last start (2026-06-28) — may not be fully stretched out
  • WSN — Zack Littell: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-10, 2026-07-04 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • ATH — J.T. Ginn: 2026-07-12: 8 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters have poor xERAs and both bullpens are disasters (WSN 4.83, ATH 5.42). Over total is at 11.0 which already reflects the chaos. WSN offense is elite (wRC+ 149) but Littell has been 20 days since last start and has recent bullpen appearances — too many unknowns on the WSN pitching side. No clean edge at a good price.
DET @ LAA
10:07 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tarik Skubal L
xERA2.01 (elite)K%36.5 (elite)HH%17.1 (elite)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA2.25IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs92BB%4.8
LAA vs LHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%29.8 (poor)HH%42.9 (above avg)
G. Rodriguez R
xERA5.70 (poor)K%11.7 (poor)HH%52.2 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA4.85IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs73BB%8.3
DET vs RHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%25.9 (below avg)HH%35.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-195-1.5 (-110)O8.0 (-110)LAA+164+1.5 (-106)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-220-0.5 (-148)O4.5 (+114)LAA+182+0.5 (+114)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (-102)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)LAAO3.5 (+122)U3.5 (-145)O1.5 (+105)U1.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTarik Skubal8.5 (+110 / -132)17.5 (-168 / +126)G. Rodriguez4.5 (-148 / +123)15.5 (-113 / -117)
Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs PHIL5.09354122
Jul 7vs ATHW5.09695211
Jun 30@ NYYW6.08791012
Jun 24vs NYYL6.08594044
Jun 19vs CHWW5.29487133
G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 10@ MINW5.17906133
Jun 14vs TBRL2.14713222
Jun 8vs HOUL5.19266223
Jun 2vs COLL3.29137378
May 28@ DETW5.08852211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tarik Skubal
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA5.14.417.05.01.0(2)
at LAA6.01.508.04.00.0(1)
G. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs DET5.01.805.02.02.0(1)
home starts3.59.523.35.32.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 2.47 (elite)ERA 3.522d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 4.16 (avg)ERA 5.612d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • LAA — G. Rodriguez: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • DET — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: NYY 33%, PHI 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • LAA — G. Rodriguez: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • LAA — G. Rodriguez: 2026-06-14: 2 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
DET -1.5 (-110)
Tarik Skubal (xERA 2.01, elite) faces G. Rodriguez (xERA 5.70, poor — recent ERA 6.77, HH% 52%, short outings). Rodriguez's home ERA this season is 9.52 in 3 home starts. LAA offense is hot vs LHP (wRC+ 121) but Rodriguez is the bigger liability here — DET offense, while below avg overall (wRC+ 87 vs RHP), benefits from Rodriguez's extreme run-allowance rate. DET bullpen is elite (xERA 2.47). LAA bullpen is poor (xERA 4.16). Despite Skubal's recent struggles (recent ERA 4.19), his xERA 2.01 indicates true elite quality and he's facing a strikeout-prone LAA lineup. The -1.5 at -110 is exceptional value given the massive quality gap between the two starters, the bullpen disparity, and Rodriguez's home track record.