MLB Game Overviews

AI Picks · 7 Bets · Jul 18

MIN @ CHC o9.0 (-108)

Matthew Boyd has a terrible xERA (5.28) despite a modest ERA of 3.63 — the market is underpricing the run risk he represents. MIN is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 132 L12, K% 30.3 — they strike out a lot but hit hard). CHC bullpen is a significant liability (xERA 5.34). MIN has averaged 8.0 RS in Bradley's last 5 starts with a 5-0 team record. CHC has averaged 6.8 RS in Boyd's last 5. Both teams combining for ~14-15 RS/game in these pitcher trends is well above the 9.0 total. Boyd's season ERA << xERA signals market is underestimating run risk. CHC park is neutral (APF 99). The main counter is Taj Bradley being elite (xERA 2.38), but Boyd's xERA gap and the bad CHC bullpen provide multiple over signals.

Found at 5:10 AM ET

NYM Team Total u1.5 (-115)

Jesus Luzardo is an absolute monster right now (xERA 1.11 — elite, recent ERA 1.98, averaging 9.3 K/start over last 3). NYM offense vs LHP is average at best (wRC+ 97 L12). Luzardo has faced NYM 3 times and holds a 4.76 ERA historically, but current form is dramatically better. NYM has scored just 3.3 RS/game away in SP's last 3. The NYM bullpen is historically bad (xERA 5.67) making the full-game total unreliable, so targeting the F5 NYM team total under is the purest expression of Luzardo's dominance without bullpen noise. -115 is reasonable for an elite pitcher in peak form against an average lineup.

Found at 5:10 AM ET

STL @ ARI F5 u4.5 (+106)

Pfaadt is elite (xERA 2.42, recent ERA 1.76, 0-1-1.7 BB%) and historically dominates STL (2.21 ERA in 2 starts). STL is cold vs RHP (wRC+ 75 L12). Despite May struggling, ARI offense is also below avg vs RHP (wRC+ 83) and won't face May long. The F5 edge is Pfaadt shutting down a cold STL lineup — Under 4.5 at +106 provides value. May's short outing concern mostly hurts the over once the bullpen enters (ARI bullpen xERA 2.56 is elite), not the F5 under. May's matchup history vs ARI is good (2.21 ERA) so the STL side of the F5 total is manageable. Both offenses are below-average in L12, and Pfaadt is as locked in as any pitcher in baseball right now.

Found at 5:10 AM ET

HOU Team Total u4.5 (-140)

Trevor Rogers is HOT (recent ERA 1.41, last 3: 6.1IP/1ER, 7.0IP/0ER, 6.0IP/2ER) and has previously dominated HOU (1.29 ERA, 7 IP, 9 Ks in 1 gs). HOU is cold vs LHP (wRC+ 57 L12 — extremely poor) and their own starter Arrighetti is a disaster (xERA 7.55, recent ERA 10.80, Barrel% 16, BB% 19). Rogers is the clear pitching edge. However, odds at -140 exceed the -150 threshold — flagging with line_warning.

Found at 5:10 AM ET

Line Warning: Consider BAL F5 ML -110 as a cheaper alternative expressing the same Rogers dominance edge

F5 ML BAL -110 (-110)

Trevor Rogers is in dominant form (recent ERA 1.41 over last 3 starts, averaging 5.7 K/start) facing a HOU lineup that is ice-cold vs LHP (wRC+ 57 L12). Rogers has a proven track record vs HOU (1.29 ERA, 9 Ks in 7 IP). Opposing Arrighetti has a catastrophic xERA 7.55 and recent ERA 10.80 with command issues (BB% 19%). BAL offense (wRC+ 108 vs RHP) is solid and should score early. F5 ML captures Rogers' excellence and BAL's offense attacking Arrighetti without bullpen exposure. -110 is excellent value for such a lopsided F5 edge.

Found at 5:10 AM ET

SFG @ SEA u6.5 (+104)

Logan Webb is scorching hot (recent ERA 0.78 over last 3 starts: 7IP/0ER, 8IP/2ER, 8IP/0ER — all quality deep outings). His xERA 4.88 is inflated by one bad outlier start (7 ER in 3 IP on 07-03 per flag), and his recent performance is dramatically better than xERA suggests. T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly (APF 92). SEA offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 77 L12). SFG bullpen xERA is strong (2.58). SEA offense has only averaged 4.4 RS in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts at home. While Woo is struggling recently (recent ERA 6.75), one outlier start (5 ER in 4 IP on 06-24) skews that. SFG offense is average vs RHP (wRC+ 112) but Webb should neutralize SEA. Getting +104 on an under with Webb in this form in a pitcher's park is excellent value.

Found at 5:10 AM ET

DET -1.5 (-110)

Tarik Skubal (xERA 2.01, elite) faces G. Rodriguez (xERA 5.70, poor — recent ERA 6.77, HH% 52%, short outings). Rodriguez's home ERA this season is 9.52 in 3 home starts. LAA offense is hot vs LHP (wRC+ 121) but Rodriguez is the bigger liability here — DET offense, while below avg overall (wRC+ 87 vs RHP), benefits from Rodriguez's extreme run-allowance rate. DET bullpen is elite (xERA 2.47). LAA bullpen is poor (xERA 4.16). Despite Skubal's recent struggles (recent ERA 4.19), his xERA 2.01 indicates true elite quality and he's facing a strikeout-prone LAA lineup. The -1.5 at -110 is exceptional value given the massive quality gap between the two starters, the bullpen disparity, and Rodriguez's home track record.

Found at 5:10 AM ET

AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice

PIT @

CLE

1:10 PM · Progressive FieldRainy, Windy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Jared Jones R

xERA2.02 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA2.45IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs77BB%5.6

CLE vs RHP

wRC+99 (avg)K%26.7 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)

Gavin Williams R

xERA2.97 (elite)K%32.4 (elite)HH%41.5 (below avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA3.78IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs95BB%8.5

PIT vs RHP

wRC+142 (elite)K%23.5 (avg)HH%41.9 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalPIT+108+1.5 (-205)O7.5 (-108)CLE-125-1.5 (+184)U7.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalPIT+105+0.5 (-148)O3.5 (-146)CLE-128-0.5 (+114)U3.5 (+112)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO3.5 (-111)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)CLEO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UJared Jones5.5 (+125 / +132)Gavin Williams7.5 (+124 / -149)

Jared Jones · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 8vs

L6.07780000

Jul 2@

W4.07362211

Jun 27vs

L4.28144134

Jun 21@

W3.04531211

Jun 15@

L4.07548155

Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 9@

W7.0103113122

Jul 3vs

W4.27965233

Jun 28vs

W5.010366323

Jun 22@

L5.09585122

Jun 17@

L5.08747277

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Gavin Williams

IPERAKHBB

vs PIT—

home starts4.75.075.75.02.7(3)

Trends · PIT

PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
PIT are 2-3 in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
PIT are 3-1 in Jared Jones's last 4 away starts.
PIT average 4.6 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
PIT average 5.2 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 4 away starts.

Trends · CLE

CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
CLE are 3-2 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
CLE are 4-1 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
CLE average 4.8 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
CLE average 5.6 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

PIT

xERA 5.54 (poor)ERA 4.562d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)

CLE

xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 2.472d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Rainy, Windy

76°F, Light Showers, Wind 15 mph WNW

APF 100 — Neutral · Rain possible (33%)

Flags · 7

PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.54 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
PIT bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
CLE bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
PIT — Jared Jones: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
WEATHER: rain risk 33% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
WEATHER: wind: Cross Wind L 15 mph — factor into total and HR expectations

MIN @

CHC✓

2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Taj Bradley R

xERA2.38 (elite)K%37.0 (elite)HH%43.9 (below avg)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA1.89IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs99BB%6.9

CHC vs RHP

wRC+115 (above avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%34.6 (below avg)

Matthew Boyd L

xERA5.28 (poor)K%16.0 (below avg)HH%44.6 (below avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs87BB%4.0

MIN vs LHP

wRC+132 (elite)K%30.3 (poor)HH%50.9 (elite)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIN+122+1.5 (-168)O9.0 (-108)CHC-142-1.5 (+142)U9.0 (-108)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIN+114+0.5 (-132)O4.5 (-128)CHC-135-0.5 (+102)U4.5 (-102)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+130)U2.5 (-166)CHCO4.5 (-111)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTaj Bradley5.5 (-142 / +122)16.5 (-123 / -102)Matthew Boyd5.5 (+126 / +132)16.5 (-112 / -112)

Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs

W7.09966222

Jul 7vs

W7.0101103011

Jul 1@

W5.097114311

Jun 26vs

W7.09973322

Jun 20@

W5.09143222

Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12@

W6.19236144

Jul 7@

W6.09373200

Jun 30vs

W5.07628033

Jun 25@

W4.27644400

May 3vs

W6.09454122

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Matthew Boyd

IPERAKHBB

vs MIN—

home starts5.14.144.05.70.3(3)

Trends · MIN

MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
MIN are 5-0 in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
MIN are 3-2 in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
MIN average 8.0 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
MIN average 7.4 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.

Trends · CHC

CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
CHC are 5-0 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
CHC are 4-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 home starts.
CHC average 6.8 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
CHC average 6.8 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

MIN

xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.052d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)

CHC

xERA 5.34 (poor)ERA 5.932d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Neutral Conditions

88°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph NW

APF 99 — Neutral

Flags · 3

CHC — Matthew Boyd: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
CHC — Matthew Boyd: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
CHC bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.34 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA

MIN @ CHC o9.0 (-108)

CHW @

TOR

3:07 PM · Rogers Centre (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Davis Martin R

xERA5.89 (poor)K%8.5 (poor)HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA4.97IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs81BB%13.6

TOR vs RHP

wRC+75 (poor)K%17.8 (above avg)HH%31.0 (below avg)

Shane Bieber R

xERA7.41 (poor)K%16.4 (below avg)HH%54.4 (poor)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA7.07IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs93BB%14.9

CHW vs RHP

wRC+116 (above avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%43.5 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCHW-115-1.5 (+146)O8.5 (-112)TOR-102+1.5 (-170)U8.5 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCHW-120-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-122)TOR-104+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-106)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)TORO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+112)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UDavis Martin3.5 (-132 / +126)—Shane Bieber4.5 (-142 / +119)15.5 (-120 / -120)

Davis Martin · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 8vs

L4.08426255

Jul 2@

L3.17306522

Jun 27vs

W5.18734100

Jun 21@

L6.07745311

Jun 16@

L3.18848399

Shane Bieber · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 10@

W4.29746322

Jul 4@

L4.08936377

Jun 28vs

L5.19245422

Jun 23vs

L3.27529044

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Davis Martin

IPERAKHBB

vs TOR6.00.006.04.02.0(1)

at TOR—

Shane Bieber

IPERAKHBB

vs CHW—

home starts4.45.413.06.32.0(3)

Trends · CHW

CHW are 4-1 vs TOR this season (5 games).
CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
CHW have won 4 straight.
CHW are 1-4 in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
CHW are 1-4 in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.
CHW average 2.6 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
CHW average 4.8 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.

Trends · TOR

TOR are 1-4 vs CHW this season (5 games).
TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
TOR are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
TOR are 1-3 in Shane Bieber's last 4 starts.
TOR are 0-2 in Shane Bieber's last 2 home starts.
TOR average 3.5 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 4 starts.
TOR average 4.5 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 2 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

CHW

xERA 2.73 (elite)ERA 2.322d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

TOR

xERA 3.19 (good)ERA 4.222d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Roof Closed

Flags · 8

CHW — Davis Martin: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
TOR — Shane Bieber: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
TOR — Shane Bieber: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
CHW bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TOR bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
CHW — Davis Martin: 2026-07-08: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
CHW — Davis Martin: recent opponents high-K: CLE 27%, BOS 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
TOR — Shane Bieber: 2026-07-04: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

RAIN RISK 44% — disqualifying factor. Game eliminated.

CIN @

COL

3:10 PM · Coors FieldHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Rhett Lowder R

xERA4.16 (avg)K%9.4 (poor)HH%26.1 (elite)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA1.29IP/gs7.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs35BB%15.6

COL vs RHP

wRC+124 (above avg)K%17.1 (above avg)HH%35.1 (avg)

Tomoyuki Sugano R

xERA4.14 (avg)K%12.7 (below avg)HH%37.3 (avg)Barrel%8.5 (avg)ERA9.00IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs89BB%4.2

CIN vs RHP

wRC+91 (below avg)K%28.0 (poor)HH%29.9 (poor)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCIN-112-1.5 (+132)O13.0 (-105)COL-104+1.5 (-150)U12.5 (-106)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCIN-115-0.5 (+104)O6.5 (-138)COL-104+0.5 (-135)U6.5 (+104)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UCINO6.5 (+100)U6.5 (-120)O3.5 (+110)U3.5 (-140)COLO6.5 (+110)U5.5 (+104)O3.5 (+105)U3.5 (-135)

Pitcher Props

K O/URhett Lowder3.5 (+135 / -165)Tomoyuki Sugano3.5 (+127 / +116)

Rhett Lowder · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs

L2.0*3010200

Jul 8vs

W2.0*3623011

Jul 4vs

L3.0*4002300

Jun 30@

L4.282811166

Jun 24vs

L5.210068133

Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 26@

L5.08528177

Jun 20vs

W6.08554011

Jun 14@

W5.09728268

Jun 9vs

W5.09336233

Jun 2@

W5.09655222

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Tomoyuki Sugano

IPERAKHBB

vs CIN5.10.002.04.03.0(1)

home starts5.33.383.05.71.3(3)

Trends · CIN

CIN are 3-1 vs COL this season (4 games).
CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
CIN are 1-4 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
CIN are 0-5 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.
CIN average 2.4 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
CIN average 3.0 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.

Trends · COL

COL are 1-3 vs CIN this season (4 games).
COL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
COL average 9.6 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
COL average 4.6 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

CIN

xERA 2.31 (elite)ERA 3.022d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

COL

xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 2.142d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)

Weather · Hot

92°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NE

APF 116 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 7

CIN — Rhett Lowder: small sample (7.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
CIN — Rhett Lowder: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
CIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
CIN — Rhett Lowder: 18 days since last start (2026-06-30) — may not be fully stretched out
CIN — Rhett Lowder: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-12, 2026-07-08 — may affect pitch count or availability
COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: 22 days since last start (2026-06-26) — may not be fully stretched out
WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 116) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props

AI Analysis

Both starters are struggling (Lowder recent ERA 8.62, Sugano recent ERA 6.60) at Coors (APF 116) — over is heavily implied. But the total is already set at 13.0/12.5, which fully prices in the expected chaos. No edge at those lines.

NYM @

PHI✓

4:05 PM · Citizens Bank ParkRainy, Hot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Sean Manaea L

xERA4.29 (avg)K%19.2 (avg)HH%42.3 (below avg)Barrel%11.5 (below avg)ERA5.09IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs98BB%5.5

PHI vs LHP

wRC+83 (below avg)K%30.9 (poor)HH%29.2 (poor)

Jesus Luzardo L

xERA1.11 (elite)K%40.4 (elite)HH%40.7 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA0.64IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs96BB%3.9

NYM vs LHP

wRC+97 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalNYM+146+1.5 (-141)O8.5 (-115)PHI-164-1.5 (+130)U8.5 (-104)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalNYM+154+0.5 (-108)O4.5 (-113)PHI-176-0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-115)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYMO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (-104)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)PHIO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)

Pitcher Props

K O/USean Manaea5.5 (+124 / -146)Jesus Luzardo6.5 (-136 / +119)

Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 9vs

W7.09766123

Jul 4@

L5.010845136

Jun 29@

L5.29043222

Jun 24vs

L3.08646234

Jun 18@

W5.19556123

Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 9@

W7.096112200

Jul 4@

W6.09594011

Jun 28@

W5.09664311

Jun 23@

W6.2104135315

Jun 16vs

W7.010695222

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Sean Manaea

IPERAKHBB

vs PHI4.85.036.05.70.7(3)

at PHI5.05.355.05.51.0(2)

Jesus Luzardo

IPERAKHBB

vs NYM5.74.767.04.72.0(3)

home starts6.34.265.35.72.0(3)

Trends · NYM

NYM are 3-4 vs PHI this season (7 games).
NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
NYM are 2-3 in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
NYM are 1-2 in Sean Manaea's last 3 away starts.
NYM average 4.4 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
NYM average 3.3 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 3 away starts.

Trends · PHI

PHI are 4-3 vs NYM this season (7 games).
PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
PHI are 5-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
PHI are 3-2 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.
PHI average 6.8 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
PHI average 6.2 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

NYM

xERA 5.67 (poor)ERA 9.132d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

PHI

xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 7.652d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Rainy, Hot

94°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 10 mph SSW

APF 107 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (23%)

Flags · 2

NYM bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.67 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
WEATHER: rain risk 23% — game delay or conditions may affect performance

NYM Team Total u1.5 (-115)

STL @

ARI✓

4:10 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Dustin May R

xERA3.51 (good)K%25.5 (good)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA6.75IP/gs3.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs66BB%12.8

ARI vs RHP

wRC+83 (below avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)

Brandon Pfaadt R

xERA2.42 (elite)K%16.7 (below avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA1.72IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs72BB%1.7

STL vs RHP

wRC+75 (poor)K%23.1 (avg)HH%40.6 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSTL+100-1.5 (+168)O9.0 (-105)ARI-118+1.5 (-190)U9.0 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSTL-110-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-138)ARI-108+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (+106)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)ARIO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UDustin May3.5 (-122 / +118)15.5 (+100 / -125)Brandon Pfaadt3.5 (-130 / +106)15.5 (+106 / -140)

Dustin May · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs

L4.08442422

Jul 6vs

L4.28174000

Jul 2@

W0.23415255

Jun 21@

W2.04426166

Jun 15vs

W9.010191100

Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 11@

W5.17726022

Jul 6@

W5.07264000

Jun 30vs

W5.16623111

Jun 3vs

L1.0*3713222

May 29@

L1.2*3133011

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Dustin May

IPERAKHBB

vs ARI6.12.216.56.01.0(2)

at ARI6.22.905.07.01.0(1)

Brandon Pfaadt

IPERAKHBB

vs STL6.12.215.54.50.5(2)

home starts5.11.762.03.01.0(1)

Trends · STL

STL are 2-3 vs ARI this season (5 games).
STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
STL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
STL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.
STL average 6.4 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
STL average 6.6 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.

Trends · ARI

ARI are 3-2 vs STL this season (5 games).
ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
ARI are 3-0 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 home starts.
ARI average 6.8 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
ARI average 7.0 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

STL

xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 3.402d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)

ARI

xERA 2.56 (elite)ERA 2.152d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Roof Closed

Flags · 6

STL — Dustin May: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
STL — Dustin May: avg 3.1 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
ARI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
STL — Dustin May: 2026-07-02: 5 ER in 0.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-03, 2026-05-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook

STL @ ARI F5 u4.5 (+106)

TEX @

ATL

4:10 PM · Truist ParkHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

MacKenzie Gore L

xERA3.07 (good)K%28.1 (elite)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA8.36IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs82BB%4.7

ATL vs LHP

wRC+83 (below avg)K%21.2 (avg)HH%46.8 (elite)

Owen Murphy R

xERA2.64 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)HH%77.8 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA2.25IP/gs4.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs34BB%0.0

TEX vs RHP

wRC+88 (below avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTEX-104-1.5 (+155)O9.0 (-105)ATL-112+1.5 (-186)U9.0 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTEX-114-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-135)ATL-110+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (+104)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)ATLO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)

Pitcher Props

K O/UMacKenzie Gore5.5 (+118 / -136)Owen Murphy—

MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs

W4.06542111

Jul 8vs

L5.09079177

Jul 1@

L5.09277155

Jun 25@

W7.09854133

Jun 20vs

L6.09565211

Owen Murphy · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 11@

L3.0*4730000

Jul 6vs

L1.0*2011012

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

MacKenzie Gore

IPERAKHBB

vs ATL3.55.074.03.03.5(2)

at ATL2.018.003.04.04.0(1)

Trends · TEX

TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
TEX are 2-3 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
TEX are 2-3 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
TEX average 4.2 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
TEX average 4.0 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.

Trends · ATL

ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.

Bullpens · Last 12

TEX

xERA 3.92 (avg)ERA 5.062d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

ATL

xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 4.942d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Hot

93°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph NNW

APF 103 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 9

TEX — MacKenzie Gore: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
TEX — MacKenzie Gore: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
ATL — Owen Murphy: small sample (4.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
ATL — Owen Murphy: HH% 78% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
ATL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
TEX — MacKenzie Gore: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
TEX — MacKenzie Gore: recent opponents high-K: CLE 29%, LAA 30% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
ATL — Owen Murphy: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-11, 2026-07-06 — may affect pitch count or availability

AI Analysis

Owen Murphy is an extreme small sample (4 IP over 3 starts, 2 of which are bullpen appearances) — disqualified from betting around him. Gore has high HH%/Barrel% concerns and has historically struggled badly at this park (18.00 ERA, 2 IP). No clean play.

BAL @

HOU✓

4:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Trevor Rogers L

xERA3.97 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%40.4 (below avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA1.04IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs90BB%10.1

HOU vs LHP

wRC+57 (poor)K%24.0 (below avg)HH%26.9 (poor)

S. Arrighetti R

xERA7.55 (poor)K%20.6 (avg)HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%15.8 (poor)ERA11.77IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs87BB%19.1

BAL vs RHP

wRC+108 (avg)K%21.8 (avg)HH%43.4 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalBAL-106-1.5 (+153)O9.0 (+100)HOU-110+1.5 (-176)U8.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalBAL-110-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-130)HOU-112+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (+100)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UBALO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)HOUO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTrevor Rogers4.5 (+104 / -114)17.5 (-119 / -112)S. Arrighetti5.5 (-145 / +115)15.5 (+130 / -166)

Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 9vs

W6.08945211

Jul 3@

W5.09342500

Jun 26vs

W6.18775011

Jun 20@

W7.09661200

Jun 14vs

L6.08245222

S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 8@

L4.09427688

Jul 3vs

L6.07342111

Jun 26@

L3.09375588

Jun 20vs

L6.09086066

Jun 14@

L6.010178144

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Trevor Rogers

IPERAKHBB

vs HOU7.01.299.05.03.0(1)

at HOU—

S. Arrighetti

IPERAKHBB

vs BAL5.23.462.06.00.0(1)

home starts5.36.195.04.70.7(3)

Trends · BAL

BAL are 3-2 vs HOU this season (5 games).
BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
BAL have won 5 straight.
BAL are 4-1 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
BAL are 3-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.
BAL average 2.8 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.

Trends · HOU

HOU are 2-3 vs BAL this season (5 games).
HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
HOU are 0-5 in S. Arrighetti's last 5 starts.
HOU are 3-2 in S. Arrighetti's last 5 home starts.
HOU average 0.8 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 5 starts.
HOU average 4.4 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

BAL

xERA 2.38 (elite)ERA 3.292d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

HOU

xERA 2.50 (elite)ERA 3.472d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Roof Closed

Flags · 3

HOU — S. Arrighetti: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
HOU — S. Arrighetti: BB% 19% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
BAL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER

HOU Team Total u4.5 (-140)

F5 ML BAL -110 (-110)

TBR @

BOS

4:10 PM · Fenway ParkRainy, Windy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Ian Seymour L

xERA3.55 (good)K%36.5 (elite)HH%37.1 (avg)Barrel%8.6 (avg)ERA5.52IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs85BB%6.3

BOS vs LHP

wRC+133 (elite)K%18.3 (above avg)HH%28.0 (poor)

Patrick Sandoval L

xERA3.29 (good)K%26.3 (good)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA2.08IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs65BB%5.3

TBR vs LHP

wRC+101 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%30.2 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTBR+102-1.5 (+156)O9.5 (-109)BOS-115+1.5 (-180)U9.5 (-108)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTBR-104+0.5 (-146)O5.5 (-102)BOS-120-0.5 (+112)U5.5 (-128)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UTBRO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)BOSO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (-102)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)

Pitcher Props

K O/UIan Seymour4.5 (-156 / +123)Patrick Sandoval3.5 (-140 / +113)

Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs

L3.17836356

Jul 7vs

W5.194125033

Jul 2@

W6.08383111

Jun 25vs

W6.2*9070100

Jun 20vs

L5.08147033

Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 9@

W4.16555111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ian Seymour

IPERAKHBB

vs BOS4.02.255.01.01.0(1)

at BOS—

Trends · TBR

TBR are 5-4 vs BOS this season (9 games).
TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
TBR are 3-2 in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
TBR are 1-0 in Ian Seymour's last 1 away starts.
TBR average 3.8 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
TBR average 5.0 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 1 away starts.

Trends · BOS

BOS are 4-5 vs TBR this season (9 games).
BOS are 10-0 in their last 10 games.
BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
BOS have won 11 straight.
BOS are 1-0 in Patrick Sandoval's last 1 starts.
BOS average 2.0 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 1 starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

TBR

xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 3.382d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)

BOS

xERA 2.91 (elite)ERA 3.122d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)

Weather · Rainy, Windy

75°F, Overcast, Wind 18 mph S

APF 106 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (35%)

Flags · 11

BOS — Patrick Sandoval: small sample (4.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
BOS — Patrick Sandoval: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
BOS bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-25, 2026-06-14 — may affect pitch count or availability
TBR — Ian Seymour: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
TBR — Ian Seymour: 2026-07-12: 5 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
TBR — Ian Seymour: low-K outing 2026-07-12 (3 Ks vs avg 7.7) — stuff was flat that day
TBR — Ian Seymour: recent opponents high-K: NYY 33%, SEA 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
BOS — Patrick Sandoval: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
WEATHER: rain risk 35% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 18 mph — factor into total and HR expectations

AI Analysis

RAIN RISK 35% — disqualifying factor. Game eliminated.

SDP @

KCR

4:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Griffin Canning R

xERA2.87 (elite)K%21.4 (avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%2.6 (elite)ERA3.46IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs74BB%7.1

KCR vs RHP

wRC+112 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%42.8 (above avg)

Randy Dobnak

xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?

SDP

No data

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSDP-118-1.5 (+135)O11.0 (-105)KCR+100+1.5 (-154)U10.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSDP-110-0.5 (+110)O6.5 (+108)KCR-106+0.5 (-144)U6.5 (-140)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 USDPO5.5 (-106)U5.5 (-120)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)KCRO5.5 (+110)U4.5 (+104)O2.5 (-140)U2.5 (+110)

Pitcher Props

K O/UGriffin Canning3.5 (-137 / +107)Randy Dobnak—

Griffin Canning · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 9vs

L4.27457022

Jul 4@

L4.0*7342211

Jun 29@

L4.17535222

Jun 23vs

W0.2*4024144

Jun 17@

W4.1*7724311

Trends · SDP

SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
SDP are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
SDP are 1-4 in Griffin Canning's last 5 starts.
SDP are 0-4 in Griffin Canning's last 4 away starts.
SDP average 2.2 runs/game in Griffin Canning's last 5 starts.
SDP average 2.0 runs/game in Griffin Canning's last 4 away starts.

Trends · KCR

KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.

Bullpens · Last 12

SDP

xERA 3.49 (good)ERA 6.332d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)

KCR

xERA 4.98 (below avg)ERA 4.742d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Hot

91°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph SSW

APF 104 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 6

KCR — Randy Dobnak: first start of the season — no stats available yet
SDP bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
KCR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
SDP — Griffin Canning: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-04, 2026-06-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
SDP — Griffin Canning: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
SDP — Griffin Canning: 2026-06-12: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

Randy Dobnak has NO STATS — disqualifying factor per rules. Cannot bet any market involving a no-stats starter on the opposing side.

MIA @

MIL

4:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Max Meyer R

xERA3.13 (good)K%20.0 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)ERA1.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs82BB%5.7

MIL vs RHP

wRC+103 (avg)K%21.6 (avg)HH%43.7 (above avg)

Shane Drohan L

xERA3.18 (good)K%20.3 (avg)HH%43.6 (below avg)Barrel%12.7 (below avg)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs82BB%4.0

MIA vs LHP

wRC+134 (elite)K%17.9 (above avg)HH%33.8 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIA+114+1.5 (-188)O8.0 (-108)MIL-130-1.5 (+158)U8.0 (-107)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIA-102+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+106)MIL-122-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-138)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)MILO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+114)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UMax Meyer5.5 (-117 / -108)15.5 (-120 / -103)Shane Drohan4.5 (-122 / +100)16.5 (-119 / -111)

Max Meyer · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 7vs

W5.08044222

Jul 1@

L6.07856015

Jun 26@

W7.08952200

Jun 20vs

W5.09877222

Jun 14@

W6.010596311

Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 11@

L6.18365033

Jul 6@

W6.08526213

Jul 1vs

W5.27876122

Jun 24@

W4.19855300

Jun 18vs

L5.09133311

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Shane Drohan

IPERAKHBB

vs MIA—

home starts5.14.145.75.71.3(3)

Trends · MIA

MIA are 1-3 vs MIL this season (4 games).
MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
MIA have lost 4 straight.
MIA are 4-1 in Max Meyer's last 5 starts.
MIA are 3-2 in Max Meyer's last 5 away starts.
MIA average 4.6 runs/game in Max Meyer's last 5 starts.
MIA average 4.4 runs/game in Max Meyer's last 5 away starts.

Trends · MIL

MIL are 3-1 vs MIA this season (4 games).
MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
MIL are 3-2 in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
MIL are 2-2 in Shane Drohan's last 4 home starts.
MIL average 3.6 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
MIL average 7.5 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 4 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

MIA

xERA 4.17 (avg)ERA 6.152d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)

MIL

xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 3.722d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Neutral Conditions

84°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph ENE

APF 101 — Neutral

Flags · 4

MIL — Shane Drohan: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
MIL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIA — Max Meyer: 11 days since last start (2026-07-07) — may not be fully stretched out
MIL — Shane Drohan: low-K outing 2026-07-06 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day

AI Analysis

Both starters are hot (Meyer recent ERA 1.50, Drohan recent ERA 1.89) and under is implied — but total is only 8.0, already reflecting decent pitching. MIA bullpen (xERA 4.17) is a concern for full-game under. F5 under at -138 offers poor value. No clean bet at a good price.

PIT @

CLE

7:10 PM · Progressive FieldHot, Windy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Braxton Ashcraft R

xERA5.41 (poor)K%30.4 (elite)HH%55.8 (poor)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA5.94IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs96BB%7.2

CLE vs RHP

wRC+99 (avg)K%26.7 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)

Logan Allen L

xERA3.57 (good)K%36.8 (elite)HH%54.5 (poor)Barrel%18.2 (poor)ERA0.00IP/gs4.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs83BB%5.3

PIT vs LHP

wRC+145 (elite)K%22.0 (avg)HH%33.3 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalPIT-110-1.5 (+151)O8.0 (-102)CLE+100+1.5 (-170)U7.5 (+100)

Team Totals

OverUnderPITO3.5 (-135)U3.5 (+105)CLEO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (-105)

Braxton Ashcraft · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 11vs

W5.09865255

Jul 4@

W5.29476211

Jun 29@

W6.09785155

Jun 24vs

W6.086105011

Jun 17@

W6.09374312

Logan Allen · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 25vs

L4.0*8375102

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Logan Allen

IPERAKHBB

vs PIT5.21.735.05.01.0(1)

home starts4.54.953.05.51.0(2)

Trends · PIT

PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
PIT are 4-1 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
PIT are 4-1 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.
PIT average 7.2 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
PIT average 7.8 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.

Trends · CLE

CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.

Bullpens · Last 12

PIT

xERA 5.54 (poor)ERA 4.562d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)

CLE

xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 2.472d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Hot, Windy

93°F, Wind 17 mph

Flags · 11

PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
CLE — Logan Allen: small sample (4.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
CLE — Logan Allen: HH% 55% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
CLE — Logan Allen: Barrel% 18% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.54 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
PIT bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
CLE bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
CLE — Logan Allen: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-25 — may affect pitch count or availability
WEATHER: rain chance 48% — monitor for delays
WEATHER: wind: Out 17 mph — factor into total and HR expectations

LAD @

NYY

8:08 PM · Yankee StadiumRainy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Emmet Sheehan R

xERA2.87 (elite)K%28.3 (elite)HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%5.6 (good)ERA2.45IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs94BB%10.0

NYY vs RHP

wRC+114 (avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%45.2 (elite)

Ryan Weathers L

xERA3.23 (good)K%26.8 (good)HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA5.73IP/gs3.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs78BB%5.4

LAD vs LHP

wRC+149 (elite)K%17.2 (above avg)HH%44.4 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalLAD-112-1.5 (+146)O9.0 (-102)NYY-104+1.5 (-170)U8.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalLAD-112-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-135)NYY-112+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (+104)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 ULADO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)NYYO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)

Pitcher Props

K O/UEmmet Sheehan5.5 (+108 / -129)Ryan Weathers5.5 (-108 / -115)

Emmet Sheehan · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs

L5.110173123

Jul 5vs

L4.19653311

Jun 28@

W5.08452211

Jun 21vs

L3.18248366

Jun 14@

L5.08584133

Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 10@

W5.19166011

Jul 5vs

L4.08866244

Jun 29vs

L1.25537125

Jun 24@

W6.09766212

Jun 18vs

L6.18883111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ryan Weathers

IPERAKHBB

vs LAD—

home starts3.85.585.75.31.3(3)

Trends · LAD

LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
LAD are 1-4 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
LAD are 2-3 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 away starts.
LAD average 2.8 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 away starts.

Trends · NYY

NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
NYY are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
NYY are 2-3 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
NYY are 1-4 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
NYY average 2.8 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
NYY average 2.0 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

LAD

xERA 3.30 (good)ERA 4.252d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

NYY

xERA 2.90 (elite)ERA 2.222d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Rainy

84°F, Overcast, Wind 12 mph SSW

APF 104 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (32%)

Flags · 4

NYY — Ryan Weathers: avg 3.7 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
LAD — Emmet Sheehan: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
NYY — Ryan Weathers: recent opponents high-K: MIN 30%, WSN 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
WEATHER: rain risk 32% — game delay or conditions may affect performance

AI Analysis

RAIN RISK 32% — disqualifying factor. Game eliminated.

SFG @

SEA✓

8:08 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Logan Webb R

xERA4.88 (below avg)K%13.3 (below avg)HH%32.2 (good)Barrel%5.1 (good)ERA6.35IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs91BB%8.0

SEA vs RHP

wRC+77 (poor)K%24.9 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)

Bryan Woo R

xERA4.15 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)Barrel%5.8 (good)ERA5.87IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs93BB%5.7

SFG vs RHP

wRC+112 (avg)K%19.7 (above avg)HH%36.1 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSFG+116+1.5 (-200)O7.0 (-102)SEA-135-1.5 (+169)U6.5 (+104)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSFG+110+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (-120)SEA-135-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (-108)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (+120)U3.5 (-145)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)SEAO3.5 (-102)U3.5 (-125)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/ULogan Webb5.5 (-112 / -106)18.5 (+108 / -143)Bryan Woo5.5 (-122 / +113)17.5 (-165 / +124)

Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 8vs

L7.010625255

Jul 3@

L3.076211277

Jun 27vs

W7.09261200

Jun 21@

L8.010355122

Jun 14vs

W8.010677001

Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 7@

L5.08759134

Jun 30vs

W6.110654122

Jun 24@

L4.08646255

Jun 18vs

W7.08993100

Jun 11@

L5.08247177

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Bryan Woo

IPERAKHBB

vs SFG6.06.006.05.01.0(1)

home starts6.70.907.73.00.7(3)

Trends · SFG

SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
SFG are 2-3 in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
SFG are 1-4 in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.
SFG average 2.8 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
SFG average 2.6 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.

Trends · SEA

SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
SEA are 2-3 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
SEA are 5-0 in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.
SEA average 4.4 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
SEA average 5.0 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

SFG

xERA 2.58 (elite)ERA 5.712d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

SEA

xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 2.702d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

Weather · Pitcher Friendly

74°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NNW

APF 92 — Pitcher Friendly

Flags · 7

SFG bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
SFG — Logan Webb: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
SFG — Logan Webb: 2026-07-03: 7 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 21) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SFG — Logan Webb: recent opponents low-K: COL 17%, TOR 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
SEA — Bryan Woo: 11 days since last start (2026-07-07) — may not be fully stretched out
SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-06-24: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 92) — park suppresses offense, favor the under

SFG @ SEA u6.5 (+104)

WSN @

ATH

10:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Zack Littell R

xERA4.54 (below avg)K%19.6 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%11.9 (below avg)ERA2.40IP/gs15.0 IP/gsH/gs12.0PC/gs79BB%5.4

ATH vs RHP

wRC+58 (poor)K%29.1 (poor)HH%44.1 (above avg)

J.T. Ginn R

xERA4.11 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%25.6 (elite)Barrel%10.3 (avg)ERA6.91IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs84BB%15.2

WSN vs RHP

wRC+149 (elite)K%15.9 (elite)HH%42.8 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalWSN+110-1.5 (+155)O11.0 (+100)ATH-125-1.5 (+152)U10.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalWSN+102+0.5 (-130)O5.5 (-135)ATH-125-0.5 (+100)U5.5 (+104)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO5.5 (+114)U4.5 (+114)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)ATHO5.5 (+102)U5.5 (-130)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UZack Littell2.5 (-159 / +124)—J.T. Ginn4.5 (+134 / +125)15.5 (+104 / -120)

Zack Littell · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 10vs

L4.0*6955011

Jul 4vs

L6.0*8734111

Jun 28@

W5.08233222

Jun 23vs

L4.0*5955022

Jun 17vs

L5.09927244

J.T. Ginn · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12@

L4.18676388

Jul 7@

L4.06142222

Jul 1vs

W6.010443511

Jun 26@

W6.08958133

Jun 20vs

L5.19856334

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

J.T. Ginn

IPERAKHBB

vs WSN—

home starts5.72.114.05.03.3(3)

Trends · WSN

WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
WSN are 3-2 in Zack Littell's last 5 starts.
WSN are 3-1 in Zack Littell's last 4 away starts.
WSN average 4.0 runs/game in Zack Littell's last 5 starts.
WSN average 5.0 runs/game in Zack Littell's last 4 away starts.

Trends · ATH

ATH are 0-10 in their last 10 games.
ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
ATH have lost 10 straight.
ATH are 2-3 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
ATH are 4-1 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.
ATH average 3.8 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
ATH average 6.2 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

WSN

xERA 4.83 (below avg)ERA 5.432d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

ATH

xERA 5.42 (poor)ERA 6.582d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

86°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SW

APF 108 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 6

ATH — J.T. Ginn: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.42 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
ATH bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
WSN — Zack Littell: 20 days since last start (2026-06-28) — may not be fully stretched out
WSN — Zack Littell: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-10, 2026-07-04 — may affect pitch count or availability
ATH — J.T. Ginn: 2026-07-12: 8 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

Both starters have poor xERAs and both bullpens are disasters (WSN 4.83, ATH 5.42). Over total is at 11.0 which already reflects the chaos. WSN offense is elite (wRC+ 149) but Littell has been 20 days since last start and has recent bullpen appearances — too many unknowns on the WSN pitching side. No clean edge at a good price.

DET @

LAA✓

10:07 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Tarik Skubal L

xERA2.01 (elite)K%36.5 (elite)HH%17.1 (elite)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA2.25IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs92BB%4.8

LAA vs LHP

wRC+121 (above avg)K%29.8 (poor)HH%42.9 (above avg)

G. Rodriguez R

xERA5.70 (poor)K%11.7 (poor)HH%52.2 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA4.85IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs73BB%8.3

DET vs RHP

wRC+87 (below avg)K%25.9 (below avg)HH%35.5 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalDET-195-1.5 (-110)O8.0 (-110)LAA+164+1.5 (-106)U8.0 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalDET-220-0.5 (-148)O4.5 (+114)LAA+182+0.5 (+114)U4.5 (-148)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (-102)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)LAAO3.5 (+122)U3.5 (-145)O1.5 (+105)U1.5 (-135)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTarik Skubal8.5 (+110 / -132)17.5 (-168 / +126)G. Rodriguez4.5 (-148 / +123)15.5 (-113 / -117)

Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs

L5.09354122

Jul 7vs

W5.09695211

Jun 30@

W6.08791012

Jun 24vs

L6.08594044

Jun 19vs

W5.29487133

G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 10@

W5.17906133

Jun 14vs

L2.14713222

Jun 8vs

L5.19266223

Jun 2vs

L3.29137378

May 28@

W5.08852211

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Tarik Skubal

IPERAKHBB

vs LAA5.14.417.05.01.0(2)

at LAA6.01.508.04.00.0(1)

G. Rodriguez

IPERAKHBB

vs DET5.01.805.02.02.0(1)

home starts3.59.523.35.32.3(3)

Trends · DET

DET are 2-2 vs LAA this season (4 games).
DET are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
DET are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
DET are 3-2 in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
DET are 2-3 in Tarik Skubal's last 5 away starts.
DET average 4.2 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
DET average 3.8 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 5 away starts.

Trends · LAA

LAA are 2-2 vs DET this season (4 games).
LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
LAA are 2-3 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
LAA are 1-4 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
LAA average 4.0 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
LAA average 3.8 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

DET

xERA 2.47 (elite)ERA 3.522d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

LAA

xERA 4.16 (avg)ERA 5.612d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Neutral Conditions

76°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW

APF 103 — Neutral

Flags · 4

LAA — G. Rodriguez: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
DET — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: NYY 33%, PHI 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
LAA — G. Rodriguez: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
LAA — G. Rodriguez: 2026-06-14: 2 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

DET -1.5 (-110)