AI Picks · 7 Bets · Aug 2
STL F5 ML -124 (-124)
Max Scherzer is in acute collapse: recent ERA 15.00, averaging only 2.8 IP/gs, 8 ER in 2.1 IP last start, Barrel% 16%, BB% 18% — every signal screams disaster. Liberatore is HOT (recent ERA 2.25, xERA 3.15) and gets a TOR lineup that is wRC+ 65 vs LHP — one of the coldest splits in today's slate. This is a pure pitching mismatch in the first 5. We avoid full-game due to STL's shaky bullpen (xERA 4.24) and 49% rain risk which could cut the game short, making the F5 the cleanest expression of this edge. Line at -124 is just inside the pricing threshold.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
MIA F5 ML -132 (-132)
Robert Stock is a NO STATS first-time starter — a hard disqualifier for betting against MIA here. Sandy Alcantara is HOT (recent ERA 2.14, 8.0 IP in last start) with an excellent history at Citi Field (1.29 ERA in 1gs) and solid history vs NYM (2.37 ERA, 3gs). MIA offense is wRC+ 115 in L12. NYM bullpen is elite (xERA 1.81) so full-game ML is tempting, but MIA's own pen is shaky (xERA 4.40). The F5 cleanly isolates the Alcantara vs. unknown starter edge, avoiding MIA bullpen exposure. -132 is within pricing limits.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
Gavin Williams K o7.5 (+123) (+123)
Williams has an absurd 47.2 K% (elite) and averages 9.3 K/start in recent outings. Today he faces ARI which has a K% of only 15.3 vs RHP — a contact-oriented lineup, which will temper expectations somewhat vs high-K recent opponents. However, Williams' elite K rate is so dominant that even calibrating down for ARI's lower K% (from PIT 25%/MIN high-K to ARI 15%), he still projects around 7-8 Ks. The line at 7.5 at +123 offers genuine value given his 9.3 avg. The recent ERA spike was one bad start (flagged as outlier) and his Outs line is 18.5 — the market expects him to pitch deep, meaning enough innings to rack up Ks. The flag about high-K recent opponents is noted, but his raw K% at 47.2% is so far above the field that even vs a contact team he comfortably threatens this number.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
HOU F5 ML -124 (-124)
Peter Lambert is blazing hot (recent ERA 1.05 over 3 starts, avg 7.7 K/start) with a 1.57 ERA at home and decent history vs TEX (4.50 ERA, 2gs — manageable). Kumar Rocker has a 9.71 ERA in 2 career starts vs HOU specifically and is struggling (recent ERA 5.88). HOU offense is wRC+ 125 in L12 and is 9-1 L10 overall. TEX bullpen is shaky (xERA 3.87, ERA 5.36) but the F5 limits that exposure. HOU bullpen is strong (xERA 3.13). The compound edge of elite recent pitching + hot offense + terrible Rocker history at this park makes the F5 line of -124 acceptable value.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
TEX Team Total u4.5 (-145)
Lambert's recent ERA of 1.05 with a home ERA of 1.57 (3gs) and a strong HOU bullpen (xERA 3.13) creates a strong suppression case for TEX scoring. TEX is wRC+ 113 vs RHP but that's a moderate offense facing a pitcher in peak form. TEX averages only 4.0 RS in away starts in their last 5 with this pitcher. The under 4.5 at -145 is at the pricing limit but justifiable given the compounding factors — Lambert's form + HOU bullpen + roof closed (neutral, no wind help).
Found at 5:33 AM ET
Line Warning: If -145 is too steep, try TEX F5 Team Total Under 2.5 (-166) — too expensive; instead look for live under opportunities if TEX scores early.
KCR @ COL o12.0 (-115)
Coors Field (APF 117) is the most offense-friendly park in baseball. Both starters are struggling: Lugo has recent ERA 5.74 and Freeland 6.75 (both ↓ STRUGGLING). Both bullpens are among the worst in today's slate — KCR xERA 5.13, COL xERA 4.82. Freeland has a 6.35 ERA at home in recent starts. KCR averages 6.0-6.4 RS in recent away starts. Even at 12.0, the Coors multiplier plus two struggling pitchers and two bad pens makes this a legitimate over. Market has it at 12.0 which is already elevated but these conditions justify it — both starters project to allow 4-6 runs each.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
SDP Team Total o4.5 (+110)
SDP offense is wRC+ 166 (elite) in L12 — the hottest lineup in today's slate by a wide margin. Landen Roupp has a brutal history at Petco (6.64 ERA in 3gs at this park) and has a recent blow-up start. Even adjusting for that skew, his xERA is 3.85 and he allows hard contact. SFG bullpen is average (xERA 3.85). SDP bullpen is elite (xERA 1.92), protecting a lead. SDP is 7-3 home L10 and 4-1 home in King's last 5 starts. Getting +110 on a historically elite recent offense at home vs a pitcher who struggles here is clear value.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
WSN @
ATL1:35 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
WSN @
ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Cade Cavalli R
xERA2.91 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)HH%45.6 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA2.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs94BB%5.7
ATL vs RHP
wRC+90 (below avg)K%25.3 (below avg)HH%34.5 (below avg)
JR Ritchie R
xERA4.28 (avg)K%19.4 (avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA4.00IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs50BB%13.9
WSN vs RHP
wRC+148 (elite)K%18.0 (above avg)HH%39.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+110-1.5 (+176)O9.0 (+100)ATL-120-1.5 (+159)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN-105——ATL-125——
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)ATLO4.5 (-110)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCade Cavalli4.5 (-140 / +117)17.5 (-101 / -132)JR Ritchie——
Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs
W6.09836223
W6.09836223Jul 22@
W6.09084200
W6.09084200Jul 17@
W6.09594022
W6.09594022Jul 12vs
L6.08554122
L6.08554122Jul 5vs
L2.16336234
L2.16336234JR Ritchie · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs
L3.2*6843333
L3.2*6843333Jul 18vs
L1.0*2211000
L1.0*2211000Jul 12@
W4.1*6121211
W4.1*6121211Jul 9@
W1.1*3512211
W1.1*3512211Jul 4vs
W3.0*4643100
W3.0*4643100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cade Cavalli
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.03.6010.07.00.0(1)
at ATL—
JR Ritchie
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN7.02.577.05.02.0(1)
home starts—
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-7 vs ATL this season (10 games).
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN have lost 4 straight.
- WSN are 3-2 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 4-1 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 9.4 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 8.8 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 7-3 vs WSN this season (10 games).
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL have won 4 straight.
- ATL are 1-4 in JR Ritchie's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-1 in JR Ritchie's last 3 home starts.
- ATL average 3.8 runs/game in JR Ritchie's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.3 runs/game in JR Ritchie's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 3.202d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 4.57 (below avg)ERA 5.592d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
85°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph SSW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- WSN — Cade Cavalli: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ATL — JR Ritchie: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ATL — JR Ritchie: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- WSN — Cade Cavalli: recent opponents low-K: ATH 17%, TOR 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- ATL — JR Ritchie: 40 days since last start (2026-06-23) — may not be fully stretched out
- ATL — JR Ritchie: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-21, 2026-07-18 — may affect pitch count or availability
AI Analysis
JR Ritchie is 40+ days since last start and has recent bullpen appearances — effectively an unknown starter equivalent; Cavalli is struggling recently (recent ERA 4.47 with a short-outing blowup); ATL bullpen xERA 4.57 is shaky; no clean edge materializes.
PHI @
BAL1:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
PHI @
BALMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zack Wheeler R
xERA2.25 (elite)K%39.7 (elite)HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA3.94IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs86BB%4.8
BAL vs RHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%23.6 (avg)HH%38.3 (avg)
Kyle Bradish R
xERA4.08 (avg)K%18.1 (avg)HH%44.4 (below avg)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs93BB%5.6
PHI vs RHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%27.8 (below avg)HH%43.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-132-1.5 (+125)O8.0 (-105)BAL+122+1.5 (-149)U7.5 (+106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-140-0.5 (+100)O4.5 (+106)BAL+116+0.5 (-130)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPHIO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-135)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)BALO3.5 (-104)U3.5 (-122)O1.5 (-120)U1.5 (-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UZack Wheeler7.5 (-111 / -101)Kyle Bradish5.5 (-106 / -104)
Zack Wheeler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27@
L3.06866155
L3.06866155Jul 21vs
L7.09395022
L7.09395022Jul 12@
W6.096102200
W6.096102200Jul 7@
W7.0104144011
W7.0104144011Jul 1vs
W4.2104109144
W4.2104109144Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27@
W4.293410155
W4.293410155Jul 22@
W6.08944111
W6.08944111Jul 11vs
W6.29652211
W6.29652211Jul 5@
L7.210655133
L7.210655133Jun 28vs
L4.08521534
L4.08521534SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Bradish
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI—
home starts4.75.704.03.33.3(3)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 1-1 vs BAL this season (2 games).
- PHI are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 5.4 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 4.0 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 1-1 vs PHI this season (2 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 5.0 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 7.0 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.87 (avg)ERA 4.752d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 1.59 (elite)ERA 2.412d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 12 mph SE
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PHI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PHI — Zack Wheeler: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PHI — Zack Wheeler: 2026-07-27: 5 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: 2026-07-27: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Zack Wheeler's last start was only 68 pitches with a 5 ER blowup — injury/hook concern; BAL bullpen is elite (xERA 1.59) suppressing the over; both offenses are cold (PHI wRC+ 81, BAL wRC+ 75); no strong angle in either direction.
STL @
TOR✓1:37 PM · Rogers CentreRainy
STL @
TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
M. Liberatore L
xERA3.15 (good)K%27.3 (good)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%2.3 (elite)ERA4.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs78BB%7.6
TOR vs LHP
wRC+65 (poor)K%26.0 (below avg)HH%30.1 (below avg)
Max Scherzer R
xERA5.07 (below avg)K%16.3 (below avg)HH%40.6 (below avg)Barrel%15.6 (poor)ERA14.04IP/gs2.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs80BB%18.4
STL vs RHP
wRC+67 (poor)K%20.3 (avg)HH%44.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+100-1.5 (+158)O9.0 (-110)TOR-108+1.5 (-176)U9.0 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-124-0.5 (+108)O5.5 (+108)TOR+100+0.5 (-140)U5.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderSTLO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-122)TORO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UM. Liberatore3.5 (-156 / +125)15.5 (+126 / -168)Max Scherzer3.5 (-146 / +128)14.5 (-134 / +105)
M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27vs
L3.26758233
L3.26758233Jul 21@
L5.19579255
L5.19579255Jul 11vs
W6.07164100
W6.07164100Jul 5@
L5.07834234
L5.07834234Jun 30@
W5.09891411
W5.09891411Max Scherzer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27@
W2.27544311
W2.27544311Jun 10vs
L3.18245355
L3.18245355Apr 24vs
L2.18206377
L2.18206377Apr 18@
L6.07415122
L6.07415122Apr 12vs
L2.16835288
L2.16835288SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
M. Liberatore
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.09.004.09.01.0(1)
at TOR—
Max Scherzer
IPERAKHBB
vs STL—
home starts2.424.662.35.32.7(3)
Trends · STL
- STL are 0-2 vs TOR this season (2 games).
- STL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 3.4 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL average 5.0 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 2-0 vs STL this season (2 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 1-4 in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 1-4 in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.
- TOR average 3.4 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.8 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.24 (avg)ERA 5.022d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.58 (good)ERA 4.092d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
73°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph ENE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (49%)
Flags · 11
- STL — M. Liberatore: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TOR — Max Scherzer: small sample (8.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- TOR — Max Scherzer: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- TOR — Max Scherzer: BB% 18% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TOR — Max Scherzer: avg 2.8 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- STL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- STL — M. Liberatore: last start: 67 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- STL — M. Liberatore: 2026-07-21: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- STL — M. Liberatore: recent opponents high-K: LAA 27%, CHC 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TOR — Max Scherzer: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- WEATHER: rain risk 49% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
STL F5 ML -124 (-124)
Max Scherzer is in acute collapse: recent ERA 15.00, averaging only 2.8 IP/gs, 8 ER in 2.1 IP last start, Barrel% 16%, BB% 18% — every signal screams disaster. Liberatore is HOT (recent ERA 2.25, xERA 3.15) and gets a TOR lineup that is wRC+ 65 vs LHP — one of the coldest splits in today's slate. This is a pure pitching mismatch in the first 5. We avoid full-game due to STL's shaky bullpen (xERA 4.24) and 49% rain risk which could cut the game short, making the F5 the cleanest expression of this edge. Line at -124 is just inside the pricing threshold.
ARI @
CLE✓1:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
ARI @
CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Merrill Kelly R
xERA4.63 (below avg)K%19.4 (avg)HH%55.6 (poor)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA1.72IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs89BB%6.5
CLE vs RHP
wRC+98 (avg)K%19.5 (above avg)HH%32.7 (below avg)
Gavin Williams R
xERA1.94 (elite)K%47.2 (elite)HH%54.0 (poor)Barrel%8.1 (avg)ERA3.15IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs94BB%1.4
ARI vs RHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%15.3 (elite)HH%39.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+134+1.5 (-171)O8.0 (-105)CLE-144-1.5 (+150)U8.0 (-113)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+130+0.5 (-120)O4.5 (+116)CLE-154-0.5 (-108)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO3.5 (-102)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)CLEO4.5 (+110)U3.5 (+116)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMerrill Kelly3.5 (-130 / +116)16.5 (-126 / -105)Gavin Williams7.5 (+123 / +124)18.5 (+128 / -171)
Merrill Kelly · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27@
L5.29364101
L5.29364101Jul 22vs
W5.08735122
W5.08735122Jul 17vs
L5.08734213
L5.08734213Jul 9@
W7.09463311
W7.09463311Jul 4vs
W5.09268222
W5.09268222Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28@
L7.0101123122
L7.0101123122Jul 23vs
L7.097112000
L7.097112000Jul 18vs
L6.084117055
L6.084117055Jul 9@
W7.0103113122
W7.0103113122Jul 3vs
W4.27965233
W4.27965233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Merrill Kelly
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE7.00.008.04.02.0(1)
at CLE—
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.10.005.04.01.0(1)
home starts5.74.199.34.70.7(3)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-0 vs CLE this season (2 games).
- ARI are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI have won 4 straight.
- ARI are 3-2 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 5.6 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 1.6 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 0-2 vs ARI this season (2 games).
- CLE are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 1.4 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 2.4 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.79 (avg)ERA 5.132d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 2.73 (elite)ERA 3.102d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph SW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CLE — Gavin Williams: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ARI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-07-18: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CLE — Gavin Williams: recent opponents high-K: PIT 25%, CIN 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
Gavin Williams K o7.5 (+123) (+123)
Williams has an absurd 47.2 K% (elite) and averages 9.3 K/start in recent outings. Today he faces ARI which has a K% of only 15.3 vs RHP — a contact-oriented lineup, which will temper expectations somewhat vs high-K recent opponents. However, Williams' elite K rate is so dominant that even calibrating down for ARI's lower K% (from PIT 25%/MIN high-K to ARI 15%), he still projects around 7-8 Ks. The line at 7.5 at +123 offers genuine value given his 9.3 avg. The recent ERA spike was one bad start (flagged as outlier) and his Outs line is 18.5 — the market expects him to pitch deep, meaning enough innings to rack up Ks. The flag about high-K recent opponents is noted, but his raw K% at 47.2% is so far above the field that even vs a contact team he comfortably threatens this number.
CHW @
TBR1:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
CHW @
TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Anthony Kay L
xERA4.01 (avg)K%25.0 (good)HH%44.7 (below avg)Barrel%15.8 (poor)ERA4.40IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs86BB%9.4
TBR vs LHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%21.5 (avg)HH%30.4 (below avg)
Griffin Jax R
xERA2.64 (elite)K%29.6 (elite)HH%34.1 (good)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA4.86IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs87BB%7.0
CHW vs RHP
wRC+95 (avg)K%22.0 (avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+136+1.5 (-166)O7.5 (-115)TBR-146-1.5 (+145)U7.5 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+130+0.5 (-118)O4.5 (+110)TBR-164-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO3.5 (-102)U3.5 (-120)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)TBRO4.5 (+120)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAnthony Kay4.5 (+125 / -144)15.5 (+124 / -166)Griffin Jax5.5 (-144 / +124)15.5 (+105 / -132)
Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs
L5.19775133
L5.19775133Jul 22@
W5.07945222
W5.07945222Jul 17@
W4.08352322
W4.08352322Jul 9vs
L5.19244222
L5.19244222Jul 3@
L4.04821211
L4.04821211Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs
L5.293105312
L5.293105312Jul 22@
W6.08353111
W6.08353111Jul 17@
L5.08568177
L5.08568177Jul 11vs
W5.06934311
W5.06934311Jul 6vs
L5.081101233
L5.081101233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Griffin Jax
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW1.00.001.01.01.0(1)
home starts5.12.967.73.32.7(3)
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 1-4 vs TBR this season (5 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 4.4 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 6.0 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 4-1 vs CHW this season (5 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 2-3 in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-2 in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 2.4 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 3.6 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.06 (good)ERA 3.142d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 2.33 (elite)ERA 1.512d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Dome
Flags · 4
- CHW — Anthony Kay: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHW — Anthony Kay: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CHW bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR — Griffin Jax: 2026-07-17: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
RAIN RISK 35% — disqualifying flag eliminates this game from consideration.
PIT @
CIN1:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
PIT @
CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mitch Keller R
xERA3.10 (good)K%22.0 (avg)HH%42.5 (below avg)Barrel%2.5 (elite)ERA3.38IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs77BB%8.5
CIN vs RHP
wRC+93 (below avg)K%27.7 (below avg)HH%39.8 (avg)
Chase Burns R
xERA3.73 (good)K%18.5 (avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%7.0 (good)ERA2.40IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs95BB%15.4
PIT vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%25.4 (below avg)HH%35.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+138+1.5 (-160)O8.5 (-108)CIN-148-1.5 (+140)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+146+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (+106)CIN-184-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO3.5 (-128)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)CINO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-122)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMitch Keller4.5 (-125 / +104)15.5 (+115 / +123)Chase Burns6.5 (-122 / +107)17.5 (+104 / -138)
Mitch Keller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27vs
W5.18346122
W5.18346122Jul 22@
W5.07563200
W5.07563200Jul 9vs
L3.07234233
L3.07234233Jul 3@
L6.08318055
L6.08318055Jun 28vs
W6.07945134
W6.07945134Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs
L5.08945215
L5.08945215Jul 21@
W5.09163200
W5.09163200Jul 8vs
W5.010623633
W5.010623633Jul 2@
W6.08944222
W6.08944222Jun 27@
W6.093109055
W6.093109055SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mitch Keller
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN6.12.974.34.71.7(3)
at CIN—
Chase Burns
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.02.508.04.31.3(3)
home starts5.02.404.34.03.7(3)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 7-5 vs CIN this season (12 games).
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Mitch Keller's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 5.4 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 4.6 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 5-7 vs PIT this season (12 games).
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 3-2 in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-3 in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 5.4 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 6.0 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 4.112d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 4.32 (avg)ERA 3.202d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
74°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph WNW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- CIN — Chase Burns: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- PIT bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PIT — Mitch Keller: 2026-07-09: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- PIT — Mitch Keller: recent opponents high-K: ATL 25%, NYY 29% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Both starters struggling (Keller recent ERA 6.60, Burns recent ERA 5.29); however, both offenses are also below average (wRC+ 94 and 93); total at 8.5 doesn't have a strong directional edge with both pens mediocre; matchup history for Burns vs PIT (2.50 ERA) and Keller vs CIN (2.97 ERA) muddies the over signal.
MIA @
NYM✓1:40 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
MIA @
NYM✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Sandy Alcantara R
xERA3.58 (good)K%18.3 (avg)HH%41.0 (below avg)Barrel%8.2 (avg)ERA2.70IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs103BB%7.3
NYM vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%27.2 (below avg)HH%38.1 (avg)
Robert Stock R
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
MIA vs RHP
wRC+115 (above avg)K%25.0 (below avg)HH%44.1 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-116-1.5 (+136)O8.5 (-117)NYM+108+1.5 (-156)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-132-0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-122)NYM+106+0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)NYMO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USandy Alcantara4.5 (-125 / +114)18.5 (+104 / -115)Robert Stock——
Sandy Alcantara · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs
W7.09754100
W7.09754100Jul 22@
L7.010839155
L7.010839155Jul 17@
L6.010473411
L6.010473411Jul 10vs
L7.09985033
L7.09985033Jul 4@
W8.010086111
W8.010086111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sandy Alcantara
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM6.32.374.34.31.0(3)
at NYM7.01.296.04.01.0(1)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 5-4 vs NYM this season (9 games).
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-2 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 2.6 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 6.4 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 4-5 vs MIA this season (9 games).
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 4.40 (avg)ERA 5.772d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 1.81 (elite)ERA 1.562d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Overcast, Wind 14 mph SSE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- NYM — Robert Stock: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- MIA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIA F5 ML -132 (-132)
Robert Stock is a NO STATS first-time starter — a hard disqualifier for betting against MIA here. Sandy Alcantara is HOT (recent ERA 2.14, 8.0 IP in last start) with an excellent history at Citi Field (1.29 ERA in 1gs) and solid history vs NYM (2.37 ERA, 3gs). MIA offense is wRC+ 115 in L12. NYM bullpen is elite (xERA 1.81) so full-game ML is tempting, but MIA's own pen is shaky (xERA 4.40). The F5 cleanly isolates the Alcantara vs. unknown starter edge, avoiding MIA bullpen exposure. -132 is within pricing limits.
TEX @
HOU✓2:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
TEX @
HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kumar Rocker R
xERA3.92 (avg)K%25.7 (good)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA4.42IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs85BB%8.1
HOU vs RHP
wRC+125 (above avg)K%22.0 (avg)HH%41.0 (above avg)
Peter Lambert R
xERA3.28 (good)K%25.3 (good)HH%41.7 (below avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA2.65IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs94BB%8.0
TEX vs RHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%25.6 (below avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+116+1.5 (-184)O9.0 (+100)HOU-125-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+100+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-128)HOU-124-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+130)U2.5 (-166)HOUO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-128)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKumar Rocker4.5 (-145 / +124)15.5 (-111 / -119)Peter Lambert5.5 (-140 / +120)17.5 (-135 / +110)
Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27vs
W6.28874222
W6.28874222Jul 21vs
W6.07561200
W6.07561200Jul 11vs
L5.29168277
L5.29168277Jul 5vs
L4.18545133
L4.18545133Jun 28@
W6.09254100
W6.09254100Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28@
W5.09067122
W5.09067122Jul 22vs
W6.08936222
W6.08936222Jul 17vs
L6.0104103311
L6.0104103311Jul 11@
W6.010773111
W6.010773111Jul 5vs
W5.29063100
W5.29063100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kumar Rocker
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.19.715.56.02.0(2)
at HOU—
Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX6.04.506.53.01.5(2)
home starts5.71.576.34.02.0(3)
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 4-8 vs HOU this season (12 games).
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX have lost 4 straight.
- TEX are 3-2 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 5.2 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.0 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 8-4 vs TEX this season (12 games).
- HOU are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU have won 5 straight.
- HOU are 4-1 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 4.2 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 3.4 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.87 (avg)ERA 5.362d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 3.13 (good)ERA 2.702d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 2
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: 2026-07-11: 7 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
HOU F5 ML -124 (-124)
Peter Lambert is blazing hot (recent ERA 1.05 over 3 starts, avg 7.7 K/start) with a 1.57 ERA at home and decent history vs TEX (4.50 ERA, 2gs — manageable). Kumar Rocker has a 9.71 ERA in 2 career starts vs HOU specifically and is struggling (recent ERA 5.88). HOU offense is wRC+ 125 in L12 and is 9-1 L10 overall. TEX bullpen is shaky (xERA 3.87, ERA 5.36) but the F5 limits that exposure. HOU bullpen is strong (xERA 3.13). The compound edge of elite recent pitching + hot offense + terrible Rocker history at this park makes the F5 line of -124 acceptable value.
TEX Team Total u4.5 (-145)
Lambert's recent ERA of 1.05 with a home ERA of 1.57 (3gs) and a strong HOU bullpen (xERA 3.13) creates a strong suppression case for TEX scoring. TEX is wRC+ 113 vs RHP but that's a moderate offense facing a pitcher in peak form. TEX averages only 4.0 RS in away starts in their last 5 with this pitcher. The under 4.5 at -145 is at the pricing limit but justifiable given the compounding factors — Lambert's form + HOU bullpen + roof closed (neutral, no wind help).
NYY @
CHC2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldPitcher Friendly
NYY @
CHCMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Gerrit Cole R
xERA2.58 (elite)K%36.1 (elite)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%7.0 (good)ERA2.37IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs98BB%4.2
CHC vs RHP
wRC+116 (above avg)K%23.2 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Colin Rea R
xERA3.95 (avg)K%18.8 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)Barrel%9.6 (avg)ERA4.24IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs90BB%5.8
NYY vs RHP
wRC+51 (poor)K%29.4 (poor)HH%45.0 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-122-1.5 (+146)O6.5 (-111)CHC+112+1.5 (-170)U6.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-140-0.5 (+108)O3.5 (-102)CHC+114+0.5 (-140)U3.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYYO3.5 (+100)U3.5 (-125)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)CHCO2.5 (-138)U2.5 (+110)O1.5 (+110)U1.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGerrit Cole6.5 (+105 / -130)17.5 (-163 / +123)Colin Rea5.5 (+134 / +127)16.5 (-108 / -123)
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28@
W6.09974200
W6.09974200Jul 22vs
L7.093114033
L7.093114033Jul 17vs
L6.010384122
L6.010384122Jul 8@
L6.19767133
L6.19767133Jul 3vs
W5.08875022
W5.08875022Colin Rea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28@
W6.09424211
W6.09424211Jul 22vs
L5.08656144
L5.08656144Jul 17vs
L6.09165134
L6.09165134Jul 8@
W5.19127233
W5.19127233Jul 1vs
W5.08156322
W5.08156322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Colin Rea
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY—
home starts5.35.065.35.71.7(3)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 1-1 vs CHC this season (2 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 2.4 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 2.0 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 1-1 vs NYY this season (2 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 3-2 in Colin Rea's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 1-4 in Colin Rea's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 9.0 runs/game in Colin Rea's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 7.2 runs/game in Colin Rea's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 2.84 (elite)ERA 2.382d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 4.05 (avg)ERA 2.662d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
72°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 13 mph N
APF 96 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 4
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- NYY bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CHC bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CHC — Colin Rea: 2026-07-22: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Cole is struggling recently (recent ERA 3.68, HH% 49%) but NYY offense is wRC+ 51 — poor; CHC has good offense (wRC+ 116) but Colin Rea is average; total at 6.5 is very low and already priced for a pitcher-friendly outcome; no strong mis-pricing identified.
KCR @
COL✓3:10 PM · Coors FieldHot
KCR @
COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Seth Lugo R
xERA4.05 (avg)K%13.7 (below avg)HH%53.7 (poor)Barrel%3.7 (elite)ERA2.37IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs89BB%8.2
COL vs RHP
wRC+67 (poor)K%27.4 (below avg)HH%37.3 (avg)
Kyle Freeland L
xERA3.94 (avg)K%20.3 (avg)HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA6.75IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs90BB%4.0
KCR vs LHP
wRC+89 (below avg)K%26.3 (below avg)HH%35.6 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+104-1.5 (+149)O12.0 (-115)COL-114+1.5 (-170)U12.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+100+0.5 (-132)O6.5 (+104)COL-120-0.5 (+102)U6.5 (-135)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO5.5 (-132)U5.5 (+110)O2.5 (-145)U2.5 (+114)COLO5.5 (-130)U5.5 (+105)O3.5 (+120)U3.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USeth Lugo4.5 (+120 / +130)—Kyle Freeland4.5 (+130 / -159)17.5 (-115 / +104)
Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28@
L6.08426211
L6.08426211Jul 22vs
W7.09453233
W7.09453233Jul 17vs
W6.09034212
W6.09034212Jul 12@
L4.08964222
L4.08964222Jul 7@
W4.19449269
W4.19449269Kyle Freeland · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26@
L5.18726155
L5.18726155Jul 20vs
L6.09147244
L6.09147244Jul 11@
L6.09296044
L6.09296044Jul 6@
L5.07229066
L5.07229066Jul 1vs
W5.08576122
W5.08576122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Freeland
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR—
home starts5.76.355.08.01.3(3)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 0-2 vs COL this season (2 games).
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 3-2 in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-3 in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 6.4 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 6.0 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 2-0 vs KCR this season (2 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 1-4 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL are 3-2 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 4.0 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL average 5.0 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 5.13 (below avg)ERA 5.552d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 4.82 (below avg)ERA 5.082d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
100°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph ENE
APF 117 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- KCR — Seth Lugo: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- COL — Kyle Freeland: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.13 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- KCR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- COL bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- COL — Kyle Freeland: high-K outing 2026-07-11 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- COL — Kyle Freeland: low-K outing 2026-07-26 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 117) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
KCR @ COL o12.0 (-115)
Coors Field (APF 117) is the most offense-friendly park in baseball. Both starters are struggling: Lugo has recent ERA 5.74 and Freeland 6.75 (both ↓ STRUGGLING). Both bullpens are among the worst in today's slate — KCR xERA 5.13, COL xERA 4.82. Freeland has a 6.35 ERA at home in recent starts. KCR averages 6.0-6.4 RS in recent away starts. Even at 12.0, the Coors multiplier plus two struggling pitchers and two bad pens makes this a legitimate over. Market has it at 12.0 which is already elevated but these conditions justify it — both starters project to allow 4-6 runs each.
MIL @
LAA3:15 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
MIL @
LAAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
J. Misiorowski R
xERA1.21 (elite)K%49.1 (elite)HH%40.7 (below avg)Barrel%7.4 (good)ERA2.25IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs84BB%1.7
LAA vs RHP
wRC+85 (below avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%39.9 (avg)
Walbert Urena R
xERA2.99 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)HH%30.9 (good)Barrel%2.4 (elite)ERA1.13IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs93BB%12.5
MIL vs RHP
wRC+128 (above avg)K%20.1 (avg)HH%42.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-215-1.5 (-128)O7.5 (-115)LAA+198+1.5 (+113)U7.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-280-1.5 (+116)O3.5 (-125)LAA+220+1.5 (-152)U3.5 (-104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMILO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)LAAO2.5 (-125)U2.5 (-102)O1.5 (+145)U1.5 (-188)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJ. Misiorowski9.5 (+106 / -124)—Walbert Urena4.5 (-154 / +124)16.5 (-104 / -110)
J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs
W5.083121011
W5.083121011Jul 20vs
W4.06564101
W4.06564101Jul 7@
W7.0103113033
W7.0103113033Jul 2vs
L5.082105015
L5.082105015Jun 26vs
W6.010782411
W6.010782411Walbert Urena · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27vs
L6.09152211
L6.09152211Jul 21vs
W6.09856111
W6.09856111Jul 8@
W4.09031500
W4.09031500Jul 2@
L5.210761411
L5.210761411Jun 26vs
L4.17156277
L4.17156277SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Walbert Urena
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL—
home starts5.45.035.04.71.7(3)
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-0 vs LAA this season (2 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 6.2 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.0 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 0-2 vs MIL this season (2 games).
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA have lost 5 straight.
- LAA are 2-3 in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 3-2 in Walbert Urena's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 5.0 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 6.6 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 4.742d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 3.46 (good)ERA 2.662d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- LAA — Walbert Urena: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- LAA bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIL — J. Misiorowski: recent opponents high-K: NYM 27%, COL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
MIL ML is -215 — far exceeds the -150 pricing limit; Urena is struggling (recent ERA 5.41) but the bet requires overpaying massively; Misiorowski K prop over 9.5 at +106 is interesting but ARI's K% of 15.3 calibration note applies here — LAA K% is 22.6 which is closer to average, and the line at 9.5 is very high even for his 9.7 avg vs high-K opponents; marginal edge not sufficient.
DET @
ATH4:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHot
DET @
ATHMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Keider Montero R
xERA2.91 (elite)K%25.0 (good)HH%30.8 (good)Barrel%5.1 (good)ERA3.46IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs68BB%1.8
ATH vs RHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%16.8 (above avg)HH%34.0 (below avg)
Gage Jump L
xERA4.02 (avg)K%31.8 (elite)HH%42.4 (below avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)ERA5.65IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs87BB%15.9
DET vs LHP
wRC+58 (poor)K%23.2 (avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-106-1.5 (+135)O11.0 (-108)ATH-102+1.5 (-154)U11.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET+102+0.5 (-135)O5.5 (-130)ATH-128-0.5 (+104)U5.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderDETO5.5 (-113)U5.5 (-113)ATHO5.5 (+105)U5.5 (-132)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKeider Montero3.5 (+111 / -128)15.5 (+108 / -144)Gage Jump5.5 (-104 / -101)15.5 (+125 / -155)
Keider Montero · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27vs
L4.18019146
L4.18019146Jul 22@
W5.18183011
W5.18183011Jul 17@
W3.1*4351000
W3.1*4351000Jul 12vs
L3.0*5854133
L3.0*5854133Jul 8vs
W1.2*3212100
W1.2*3212100Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs
W6.09073400
W6.09073400Jul 22@
L4.28358466
L4.28358466Jul 17vs
L3.28784234
L3.28784234Jul 11@
L5.28675211
L5.28675211Jul 5vs
L3.08518356
L3.08518356SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs DET—
home starts4.15.905.35.03.0(3)
Trends · DET
- DET are 5-0 vs ATH this season (5 games).
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 4-1 in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Keider Montero's last 5 away starts.
- DET average 6.8 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.2 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 0-5 vs DET this season (5 games).
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH have lost 4 straight.
- ATH are 1-4 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-3 in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 4.2 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 5.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.97 (avg)ERA 3.602d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 5.44 (poor)ERA 6.662d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
100°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph WNW
APF 110 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- ATH — Gage Jump: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.44 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- DET bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATH bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- DET — Keider Montero: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-17, 2026-07-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
- DET — Keider Montero: 2026-07-27: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATH — Gage Jump: 2026-07-22: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 110) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
AI Analysis
Keider Montero's recent outings are all very short (1.2-3.1 IP), making his stats unreliable; ATH bullpen xERA 5.44 disqualifies full-game side bets; the total at 11.0 is already elevated pricing in both weaknesses; no clean angle with confidence.
MIN @
SEA4:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
MIN @
SEAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Taj Bradley R
xERA3.36 (good)K%28.8 (elite)HH%44.2 (below avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA4.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs102BB%12.3
SEA vs RHP
wRC+99 (avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%37.6 (avg)
George Kirby R
xERA4.49 (avg)K%24.6 (good)HH%44.7 (below avg)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA5.06IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs77BB%1.5
MIN vs RHP
wRC+84 (below avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%41.7 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+128+1.5 (-184)O7.5 (-102)SEA-138-1.5 (+157)U7.0 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+118+0.5 (-130)O3.5 (-140)SEA-140-0.5 (+100)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO3.5 (+106)U3.5 (-130)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)SEAO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTaj Bradley6.5 (-105 / -112)18.5 (+143 / -192)George Kirby5.5 (-110 / -115)17.5 (-185 / +147)
Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs
W6.0102103322
W6.0102103322Jul 23@
W7.010952311
W7.010952311Jul 18@
L5.09467355
L5.09467355Jul 12vs
W7.09966222
W7.09966222Jul 7vs
W7.0101103011
W7.0101103011George Kirby · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27@
L4.06637077
L4.06637077Jul 20vs
W6.08063100
W6.08063100Jul 8@
L6.08678022
L6.08678022Jun 29vs
W8.010077122
W8.010077122Jun 23@
W6.09159212
W6.09159212SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Taj Bradley
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA7.02.577.04.02.0(1)
at SEA—
George Kirby
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN5.62.414.05.51.5(2)
home starts6.72.256.06.00.7(3)
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 2-3 vs SEA this season (5 games).
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 4-1 in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 3.0 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 6.6 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 3-2 vs MIN this season (5 games).
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 3-2 in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 3-2 in George Kirby's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 4.0 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.0 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.56 (good)ERA 3.122d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 3.01 (good)ERA 3.112d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
67°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 2 mph NNW
APF 91 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 11
- MIN — Taj Bradley: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIN — Taj Bradley: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- SEA — George Kirby: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SEA — George Kirby: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- MIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIN — Taj Bradley: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- MIN — Taj Bradley: 2026-07-18: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SEA — George Kirby: last start: 66 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- SEA — George Kirby: 2026-07-27: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SEA — George Kirby: recent opponents high-K: CIN 28%, TEX 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 91) — park suppresses offense, favor the under
AI Analysis
Both starters have concerns — Bradley high BB% and last start 102 pitches; Kirby last start only 66 pitches (hook concern) and recent outlier; pitcher-friendly park (APF 91) argues for under but total is already at 7.0-7.5, somewhat priced in; both offenses are cold to average; no dominant signal.
SFG @
SDP✓4:10 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
SFG @
SDP✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Landen Roupp R
xERA3.85 (avg)K%15.6 (below avg)HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA3.24IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs91BB%9.4
SDP vs RHP
wRC+166 (elite)K%17.6 (above avg)HH%43.6 (above avg)
Michael King R
xERA4.16 (avg)K%23.6 (good)HH%31.9 (good)Barrel%14.9 (below avg)ERA3.18IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs100BB%9.7
SFG vs RHP
wRC+95 (avg)K%22.2 (avg)HH%30.8 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+132+1.5 (-175)O8.0 (-110)SDP-142-1.5 (+146)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+120+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (+102)SDP-142-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-132)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-113)O1.5 (-120)U1.5 (-110)SDPO4.5 (+110)U4.5 (-138)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULanden Roupp4.5 (-138 / +112)16.5 (-121 / -110)Michael King5.5 (-115 / -101)17.5 (-168 / +127)
Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs
L3.28414344
L3.28414344Jul 22@
L6.09174022
L6.09174022Jul 17@
W7.09722300
W7.09722300Jul 6vs
W8.010453211
W8.010453211Jun 30@
L2.28445666
L2.28445666Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs
W6.09866144
W6.09866144Jul 22@
L6.010475411
L6.010475411Jul 17@
L5.09744211
L5.09744211Jul 8vs
W6.09244211
W6.09244211Jul 3@
L6.07553222
L6.07553222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP4.73.174.73.72.0(3)
at SDP4.16.644.34.72.3(3)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG5.21.736.03.01.0(1)
home starts5.45.035.04.32.3(3)
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 4-5 vs SDP this season (9 games).
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 2-3 in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 5.0 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 3.6 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 5-4 vs SFG this season (9 games).
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 2-3 in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 4-1 in Michael King's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 6.6 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 5.2 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 3.532d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 1.92 (elite)ERA 2.822d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
82°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- SDP — Michael King: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- SFG bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SFG — Landen Roupp: 2026-07-28: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SDP — Michael King: recent opponents high-K: ATL 25%, COL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
SDP Team Total o4.5 (+110)
SDP offense is wRC+ 166 (elite) in L12 — the hottest lineup in today's slate by a wide margin. Landen Roupp has a brutal history at Petco (6.64 ERA in 3gs at this park) and has a recent blow-up start. Even adjusting for that skew, his xERA is 3.85 and he allows hard contact. SFG bullpen is average (xERA 3.85). SDP bullpen is elite (xERA 1.92), protecting a lead. SDP is 7-3 home L10 and 4-1 home in King's last 5 starts. Getting +110 on a historically elite recent offense at home vs a pitcher who struggles here is clear value.
BOS @
LAD7:20 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
BOS @
LADMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jake Bennett L
xERA3.15 (good)K%14.9 (below avg)HH%37.3 (avg)Barrel%3.4 (elite)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs79BB%4.0
LAD vs LHP
wRC+73 (poor)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
Emmet Sheehan R
xERA2.82 (elite)K%26.9 (good)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA5.17IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%6.0
BOS vs RHP
wRC+85 (below avg)K%23.5 (avg)HH%33.5 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS+148+1.5 (-144)O9.0 (-105)LAD-160-1.5 (+128)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS+134+0.5 (-110)O4.5 (-140)LAD-168-0.5 (-118)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderBOSO3.5 (-135)U3.5 (+108)LADO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Bennett3.5 (-115 / -103)16.5 (-120 / -105)Emmet Sheehan5.5 (-122 / +112)16.5 (-131 / -101)
Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28@
L6.18846233
L6.18846233Jul 22vs
W5.28349033
W5.28349033Jul 17vs
W6.06531100
W6.06531100Jul 8@
W7.08144100
W7.08144100Jul 3@
W7.29265022
W7.29265022Emmet Sheehan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26@
L5.08753211
L5.08753211Jul 20@
L5.18768166
L5.18768166Jul 12vs
L5.110173123
L5.110173123Jul 5vs
L4.19653311
L4.19653311Jun 28@
W5.08452211
W5.08452211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Emmet Sheehan
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.03.605.03.02.0(1)
home starts4.16.595.34.72.3(3)
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 2-0 vs LAD this season (2 games).
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 9-1 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS have won 4 straight.
- BOS are 3-2 in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-3 in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 4.8 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 4.0 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 0-2 vs BOS this season (2 games).
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 1-4 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 1-4 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 3.8 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.48 (good)ERA 2.092d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 5.11 (below avg)ERA 6.052d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph WSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- LAD bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.11 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- BOS bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAD bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS — Jake Bennett: recent opponents high-K: BAL 25%, ATH 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- LAD — Emmet Sheehan: 2026-07-20: 6 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAD — Emmet Sheehan: recent opponents high-K: PHI 28%, NYM 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
LAD bullpen xERA 5.11 disqualifies full-game LAD side; Bennett is hot but has very low K rate (4.3/start) so no K prop; Sheehan's home ERA is 6.59 but recent ERA 2.54 is improving; total at 9.0 has too much uncertainty with LAD's shaky pen vs. BOS's decent pitching; no clean confident angle.