AI Picks · 15 Bets · Jul 30
MIA @ NYM u7.0 (-105)
Both starters are genuinely elite right now. Eury Perez: xERA 3.01, recent ERA 1.49, averaging 7.3 K/start — legitimately hot. Nolan McLean: xERA 3.59, recent ERA 1.00 across 3 starts, 6.3 K/start average — also scorching. Both offenses are average (MIA wRC+ 101, NYM wRC+ 106 L12). NYM bullpen is strong (xERA 3.26). Petco-equivalent neutral park (APF 101). This is a classic ace vs ace under setup. The only caution is Perez's historical struggles vs NYM (7.11 ERA career) and that he had 104 pitches last start — but his form is clearly elite right now and McLean is equally sharp. Under 7.0 at -105 is reasonable juice for two of the hottest starters in the data set.
Found at 5:59 AM ET
Nolan McLean K o6.5 (+108)
McLean has a 32.4% K rate and has averaged 6.3 K/start over his recent 3 — all against quality teams (BOS, ATL, TOR). Today he faces MIA with a 26.6% K rate, above average strikeout rate. His adjusted K expectation vs MIA is approximately 6.5-7.0. Getting Over 6.5 at +108 (plus money!) is excellent value — the line seems to underestimate McLean given his elite K% and MIA's strikeout tendencies. Outs line is 17.5 (nearly 6 IP), confirming he's expected to go deep enough to accumulate Ks.
Found at 5:59 AM ET
BOS Team Total o5.5 (-122)
Sonny Gray is scorching hot (recent ERA 0.94) but BOS offense gets a massive gift facing Mason Barnett — who has a 8.44 ERA, 15% BB rate, tiny 5.1 IP sample, recent bullpen appearances affecting his stamina, and a 6.25 ERA in 2 prior starts vs BOS. ATH bullpen xERA 6.03 is a disqualifier for ATH side bets but confirms runs will flow once Barnett exits early. BOS is 9-1 away in Gray's recent starts averaging 6.6 RS away. Hitter-friendly park (APF 109). BOS scoring 5+ is well-supported.
Found at 5:59 AM ET
SFG F5 ML (-110)
Robbie Ray is hot (recent ERA 1.89, season ERA 1.20) and has a strong history vs SDP (2.81 ERA, 6.4 IP/gs across 3 career starts) including a shutout at Petco. JP Sears is a NO STATS first-time starter — disqualified from any bets favoring SDP's pitching. The F5 captures Ray's dominance while avoiding SFG's elevated bullpen (5.3 IP yesterday). SFG offense has been averaging 9.6 RS away in SP recent starts. SDP offense vs LHP is average (wRC+ 101). The F5 ML at -110 for SFG is fair given Ray vs an unknown opponent starter.
Found at 5:59 AM ET
BOS F5 ML (-160)
Sonny Gray is scorching hot (recent ERA 0.94, last 3 starts: 6IP/1ER, 6IP/1ER, 7.1IP/0ER) against a Mason Barnett who has been a disaster (3 starts, max 2IP each, multiple blow-up outings, ERA 8.44, xERA 3.72 but tiny sample). Gray's xERA 3.82 is solid and his form is elite. BOS offense is average vs RHP but ATH's F5 run production against Gray should be minimal. ATH bullpen is disqualifying for full-game ML but not for F5. The edge is clear in the first 5 innings — Gray dominates, Barnett collapses. The -160 is steep but the asymmetry is real. Flag: prefer alternate expressions.
Found at 11:45 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider BOS F5 Team Total Over 2.5 at -140 or ATH F5 Team Total Under 2.5 at -140 for better value expressions of this edge
ATH Team Total u4.5 (-140)
Sonny Gray is in the best form of his recent stretch (recent ERA 0.94 across 3 starts) facing an ATH offense that rates wRC+ 126 in L12 but will be neutralized by Gray's elite current stuff. Historically Gray struggled vs ATH (10.50 ERA in 1gs), but that's a tiny sample vs his current trajectory. ATH bullpen being terrible (-disqualifies full-game ML) actually reinforces the team total under angle: Gray will limit ATH scoring, and even if BOS pen is mediocre, the total scoring is anchored on how many runs ATH generates. 4.5 at -140 is borderline — flag for line.
Found at 11:45 AM ET
Line Warning: ATH F5 Team Total Under 2.5 (-140) captures the Gray dominance with less pen exposure
SFG @ SDP u8.5 (-118)
Robbie Ray is hot (recent ERA 1.89, 5IP/1ER, 6IP/3ER, 8IP/0ER) with solid xERA 3.79 and strong history vs SDP (2.81 ERA, 6.4 IP/gs). SFG offense vs LHP is one of the worst in baseball (wRC+ 69 in L12) — Ray and Sears both throw from the left side, which suppresses both offenses' production (SDP vs LHP also only wRC+ 96). JP Sears xERA is elite (2.54) even though recent ERA is elevated (6.09); season ERA 2.84 vs xERA 2.54 suggests he's been a bit unlucky. SDP bullpen is elite (xERA 2.00). Petco Park is a pitcher's park (APF 99). Three clear under signals align: cold SFG offense vs LHP, Petco suppression, elite SDP pen. The main risk is Sears' recent struggles, but xERA says the talent is real. Under 8.5 at -118 is reasonable.
Found at 11:45 AM ET
BOS @ ATH F5 o5.5 (-115)
Mason Barnett is severely compromised: 5.1 IP over 3 starts (recent bullpen appearances 7/25 and 7/10), command issues (BB% 14.8%), ERA 8.44 vs xERA 3.72 signals real struggles, and recent starts capped at 2.0 IP with ERs. ATH offense is hot (wRC+ 126 vs RHP). Sonny Gray's last start was only 75 pitches (early hook flag) and his one prior outing vs ATH was a 10.50 ERA — so both offenses could contribute. Hitter-friendly park (APF 109). Barnett very unlikely to get through 5 clean innings; BOS bullpen fresh but ATH pen is a disaster (xERA 6.06). Enough juice on both sides for runs before the 5th inning ends.
Found at 5:03 PM ET
WSN @ ATL o10.0 (-110)
Jake Irvin is severely struggling (recent ERA 8.31, 3 consecutive bad starts, HH% 46.4%, 68 days since last start and not stretched out), and WSN offense is elite (wRC+ 153 vs RHP). Holmes has been hot recently (recent ERA 0.90) BUT his at-home ERA is 5.25 (4.0 IP/gs at home) and his season xERA is 4.62 (below average baseline). Both bullpens are mediocre-to-bad (WSN xERA 3.88, ATL xERA 4.71). The elite WSN offense (wRC+ 153) will score against the shaky Holmes at home AND the ATL bullpen, and Irvin almost certainly gives up runs early. The 10.0 total is not yet pricing in Irvin's current state of disrepair fully.
Found at 5:03 PM ET
Jake Irvin Outs u13.5 (-104)
Irvin has averaged only 4.0 IP/gs this season and 3.7 IP/gs in his recent 3 starts. At 13.5 outs, the line implies 4.5 innings — Irvin has not been clearing that in recent form (3.0IP, 5.0IP, 5.0IP). He has command issues (BB% 11.5%), a sky-high HH% 46.4%, and has been struggling acutely. The ATL bullpen is fresh (0.0 IP over 1g), meaning the manager has zero hesitation pulling Irvin early. 68 days since last start also suggests he's not yet built to go deep. Under 13.5 outs at -104 is solid value.
Found at 5:03 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
NYY @ CHW u7.5 (+100)
Sean Burke is elite (xERA 2.00, recent ERA 1.99) facing an NYY offense that is ice cold (wRC+ 61 L12, K% 27.2%) — a dominant pitcher vs a struggling offense is the cleanest under signal available. Burke is 3-0 at home with 1.88 ERA. NYY Weathers flag — one bad start skewed his 3-game ERA per the note, and he has good xERA (3.47) and prior success vs CHW. CHW offense vs LHP is average (wRC+ 108) and NYY pen (xERA 4.17) is decent. Total at 7.5 with +100 is a gift given Burke's dominance vs this dead NYY lineup — we're getting plus money on the under.
Found at 5:59 AM ET
Sean Burke Ks o7.5 (+102)
Burke's K credentials are exceptional: K% 33.8, averaging 9.3 K/start in recent outings (9K, 11K, 8K). Today's opponent NYY has a K% of 26.6% vs RHP — one of the higher rates in baseball, actually BETTER for Burke than the ATH/CLE/BAL lineups he recently dominated. Burke goes deep into games (6.6 IP/gs avg, recent 7IP, 6IP, 5.1IP). Adjusted expectation: his recent average is 9.3K against moderately K-prone lineups; NYY is MORE strikeout-prone at 26.6%. Adjusted expectation sits around 9-10 Ks. The line is 7.5 at +102 — that's more than 1.5 Ks of cushion at plus-money. This is the cleanest prop of the slate. Cross-reference: Outs line 17.5 at -135 confirms the market expects him to go deep enough to accumulate Ks. Strong play.
Found at 11:45 AM ET
CHC ML (+102)
Andre Pallante is struggling badly (recent ERA 6.04, 3-start avg) and has a brutal 9.57 ERA in 3 career starts vs CHC with only 3.1 IP/gs — he consistently fails to get deep against this team. CHC offense is elite in L12 (wRC+ 130). Javier Assad has a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts vs STL. STL offense is poor (wRC+ 79 L12). CHC bullpen (xERA 3.68) is reliable; STL bullpen was stressed yesterday (7.3 IP). Getting CHC at +102 when all the matchup edges point their way is clear value — market is pricing it near even despite a significant edge.
Found at 5:59 AM ET
CHC @ STL u8.5 (-110)
Assad's recent ERA is 1.96 and he has a 0.00 ERA vs STL specifically. STL offense is cold (wRC+ 79 L12). CHC bullpen is sharp (xERA 3.68). On the other side, Pallante is struggling but CHC scoring runs should still be contained somewhat — the dominant under signal is Assad shutting down a poor STL lineup and CHC's elite pen holding. STL pen was stressed yesterday meaning Assad may go deeper. Combined run environment points below 8.5.
Found at 5:59 AM ET
CHC Team Total o4.5 (+114)
Andre Pallante is a trainwreck right now: recent ERA 6.04, with outings of 5IP/6ER and 6.2IP/5ER flanking an outlier 0ER start. His xERA is an elite 2.99 but recent ERA >> xERA signals he is actively struggling, not just unlucky. Crucially, his matchup history vs CHC is catastrophic: 3gs, 9.57 ERA, only 3.1 IP/gs — he consistently melts against this lineup. CHC offense is above average in L12 (wRC+ 124), K% 24.5 (will miss some bats but can hit). Assad vs STL at 0.00 ERA historically means CHC may keep this close, and their run support in Assad starts averages 5.8 RS. CHC Team Total Over 4.5 at +114 is excellent value — we are getting plus-money on a hot offense vs a genuinely struggling pitcher with a terrible specific matchup history.
Found at 11:45 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
TEX @ 
TBR12:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
TEX @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Cole Winn
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
TBR
No data
Shane McClanahan L
xERA3.19 (good)K%16.9 (below avg)HH%29.2 (elite)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA2.76IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs69BB%7.7
TEX vs LHP
wRC+101 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+130+1.5 (-179)O8.0 (-104)TBR-144-1.5 (+155)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+134+0.5 (-115)O4.5 (+114)TBR-168-0.5 (-113)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
OverUnderTEXO3.5 (-105)U3.5 (-120)TBRO3.5 (-145)U3.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCole Winn——Shane McClanahan5.5 (+134 / +120)15.5 (+107 / -135)
Shane McClanahan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30vs W3.04930211
W3.04930211Jul 24vs 
W5.07132211
W5.07132211Jul 19@ 
L5.08735356
L5.08735356Jul 8vs 
W6.18554000
W6.18554000Jul 1@ 
W6.06943000
W6.06943000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane McClanahan
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX3.03.003.00.02.0(1)
home starts4.71.283.72.01.3(3)
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 1-2 vs TBR this season (3 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 2-1 vs TEX this season (3 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 4-1 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 4.8 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 8.0 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 4.41 (avg)ERA 6.122d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 2.53 (elite)ERA 2.312d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Dome
Flags · 4
- TEX — Cole Winn: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: 2026-07-19: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: recent opponents high-K: NYY 27%, BOS 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
KCR @ 
MIN1:40 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
KCR @ MINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Noah Cameron L
xERA4.39 (avg)K%23.4 (good)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%11.5 (below avg)ERA5.68IP/gs9.5 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs95BB%9.1
MIN vs LHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%35.1 (avg)
Bailey Ober R
xERA3.99 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%7.0 (good)ERA4.40IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs85BB%6.6
KCR vs RHP
wRC+100 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%44.1 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+120+1.5 (-170)O9.5 (-108)MIN-136-1.5 (+141)U9.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+106+0.5 (-130)O5.5 (+104)MIN-132-0.5 (+100)U5.5 (-135)
Team Totals
OverUnderKCRO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-120)MINO4.5 (-128)U4.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNoah Cameron4.5 (-126 / +100)16.5 (-108 / -120)Bailey Ober4.5 (+125 / +126)15.5 (-128 / -103)
Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30@ L8.09771200
L8.09771200Jul 24@ 
L7.0*9782300
L7.0*9782300Jul 19vs 
L5.09019277
L5.09019277Jul 11@ 
L7.010095255
L7.010095255Jul 6vs 
W5.010576511
W5.010576511Bailey Ober · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30vs W6.07934223
W6.07934223Jul 22@ W4.08928144
W4.08928144Jul 17@ 
W5.18875222
W5.18875222Jul 9vs L5.07453111
L5.07453111May 30@ 
L4.297312178
L4.297312178SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN6.30.476.32.71.0(3)
at MIN6.40.006.03.31.3(3)
Bailey Ober
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.72.114.34.01.3(3)
home starts5.33.383.04.31.7(3)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 6-4 vs MIN this season (10 games).
- KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 1-4 in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Noah Cameron's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 5.0 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 3.0 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 4-6 vs KCR this season (10 games).
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 3-2 in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 6.4 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 4.2 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.96 (below avg)ERA 4.322d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 3.332d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SSW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- KCR — Noah Cameron: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- KCR — Noah Cameron: 11 days since last start (2026-07-19) — may not be fully stretched out
- KCR — Noah Cameron: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-24 — may affect pitch count or availability
- KCR — Noah Cameron: 2026-07-19: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- KCR — Noah Cameron: low-K outing 2026-07-19 (1 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day
- MIN — Bailey Ober: 2026-07-22: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
NYY @ 
CHW✓2:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
NYY @ CHW✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Weathers L
xERA3.47 (good)K%25.7 (good)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%4.2 (elite)ERA4.02IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs101BB%4.3
CHW vs LHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)HH%41.4 (above avg)
Sean Burke R
xERA2.00 (elite)K%33.8 (elite)HH%25.6 (elite)Barrel%4.7 (elite)ERA1.37IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs97BB%2.8
NYY vs RHP
wRC+63 (poor)K%26.6 (below avg)HH%44.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY+134-1.5 (+282)O3.5 (-133)CHW-165+1.5 (-407)U3.5 (+103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY+102+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+110)CHW-128-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
OverUnderNYYO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+110)CHWO3.5 (-128)U3.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Weathers5.5 (-145 / +123)16.5 (-125 / -106)Sean Burke6.5 (-146 / +116)17.5 (-129 / +105)
Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30@ W7.010643300
W7.010643300Jul 25@ W5.29776111
W5.29776111Jul 20vs W4.29957255
W4.29957255Jul 10@ 
W5.19166011
W5.19166011Jul 5vs L4.08866244
L4.08866244Sean Burke · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30vs L6.091103200
L6.091103200Jul 25vs 
L6.0102104123
L6.0102104123Jul 19@ 
W6.29852100
W6.29852100Jul 10vs 
W7.09894011
W7.09894011Jul 4@ W6.095117011
W6.095117011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Weathers
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW6.50.696.03.02.0(2)
at CHW7.00.004.03.03.0(1)
Sean Burke
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.00.0010.03.02.0(1)
home starts6.31.429.73.71.0(3)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 4-2 vs CHW this season (6 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 4.0 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 4.2 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-4 vs NYY this season (6 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 4-1 in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 3-2 in Sean Burke's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 5.8 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 4.0 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.69 (good)ERA 3.222d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 3.13 (good)ERA 3.602d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph ESE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- NYY — Ryan Weathers: 2026-07-20: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHW — Sean Burke: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
NYY @ CHW u7.5 (+100)
Sean Burke is elite (xERA 2.00, recent ERA 1.99) facing an NYY offense that is ice cold (wRC+ 61 L12, K% 27.2%) — a dominant pitcher vs a struggling offense is the cleanest under signal available. Burke is 3-0 at home with 1.88 ERA. NYY Weathers flag — one bad start skewed his 3-game ERA per the note, and he has good xERA (3.47) and prior success vs CHW. CHW offense vs LHP is average (wRC+ 108) and NYY pen (xERA 4.17) is decent. Total at 7.5 with +100 is a gift given Burke's dominance vs this dead NYY lineup — we're getting plus money on the under.
Sean Burke Ks o7.5 (+102)
Burke's K credentials are exceptional: K% 33.8, averaging 9.3 K/start in recent outings (9K, 11K, 8K). Today's opponent NYY has a K% of 26.6% vs RHP — one of the higher rates in baseball, actually BETTER for Burke than the ATH/CLE/BAL lineups he recently dominated. Burke goes deep into games (6.6 IP/gs avg, recent 7IP, 6IP, 5.1IP). Adjusted expectation: his recent average is 9.3K against moderately K-prone lineups; NYY is MORE strikeout-prone at 26.6%. Adjusted expectation sits around 9-10 Ks. The line is 7.5 at +102 — that's more than 1.5 Ks of cushion at plus-money. This is the cleanest prop of the slate. Cross-reference: Outs line 17.5 at -135 confirms the market expects him to go deep enough to accumulate Ks. Strong play.
CHC @ 
STL✓2:15 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
CHC @ STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Javier Assad R
xERA3.94 (avg)K%23.7 (good)HH%40.7 (below avg)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA2.00IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs10.0PC/gs47BB%2.6
STL vs RHP
wRC+76 (poor)K%17.9 (above avg)HH%43.3 (above avg)
Andre Pallante R
xERA2.99 (elite)K%18.3 (avg)HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%3.8 (elite)ERA4.67IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs89BB%7.0
CHC vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%24.5 (below avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC+100-1.5 (+360)O6.5 (-108)STL-111+1.5 (-400)U5.5 (+125)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-102+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-130)STL-122-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderCHCO3.5 (-150)U3.5 (+120)STLO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJavier Assad2.5 (-165 / +139)14.5 (-156 / +117)Andre Pallante4.5 (+132 / -163)17.5 (-125 / -103)
Javier Assad · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30@ L4.18366211
L4.18366211Jul 25@ W3.0*3231000
W3.0*3231000Jul 20vs L1.0*2622101
L1.0*2622101Jul 11@ 
W5.08247022
W5.08247022Jul 5vs W4.28022200
W4.28022200Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30vs L6.19037222
L6.19037222Jul 25vs W7.09082100
W7.09082100Jul 19@ 
L5.18835233
L5.18835233Jul 9vs 
L5.09728266
L5.09728266Jul 3@ W5.210225100
W5.210225100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Javier Assad
IPERAKHBB
vs STL4.50.674.73.71.7(3)
at STL4.12.206.06.02.0(1)
Andre Pallante
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.83.782.76.71.3(3)
home starts6.03.984.35.71.7(3)
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 4-5 vs STL this season (9 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 4-1 in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-2 in Javier Assad's last 5 away starts.
- CHC average 5.8 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 5.4 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 5 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 5-4 vs CHC this season (9 games).
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 2-3 in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL are 3-2 in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 7.2 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.6 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 3.032d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
STL
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 5.082d stress Stressed (7.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
87°F, Clear, Wind 3 mph SE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- STL bullpen stressed (7.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC — Javier Assad: 19 days since last start (2026-07-11) — may not be fully stretched out
- CHC — Javier Assad: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-25, 2026-07-20 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — Javier Assad: recent opponents high-K: NYM 27%, CIN 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- STL — Andre Pallante: 2026-07-09: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
CHC ML (+102)
Andre Pallante is struggling badly (recent ERA 6.04, 3-start avg) and has a brutal 9.57 ERA in 3 career starts vs CHC with only 3.1 IP/gs — he consistently fails to get deep against this team. CHC offense is elite in L12 (wRC+ 130). Javier Assad has a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts vs STL. STL offense is poor (wRC+ 79 L12). CHC bullpen (xERA 3.68) is reliable; STL bullpen was stressed yesterday (7.3 IP). Getting CHC at +102 when all the matchup edges point their way is clear value — market is pricing it near even despite a significant edge.
CHC @ STL u8.5 (-110)
Assad's recent ERA is 1.96 and he has a 0.00 ERA vs STL specifically. STL offense is cold (wRC+ 79 L12). CHC bullpen is sharp (xERA 3.68). On the other side, Pallante is struggling but CHC scoring runs should still be contained somewhat — the dominant under signal is Assad shutting down a poor STL lineup and CHC's elite pen holding. STL pen was stressed yesterday meaning Assad may go deeper. Combined run environment points below 8.5.
CHC Team Total o4.5 (+114)
Andre Pallante is a trainwreck right now: recent ERA 6.04, with outings of 5IP/6ER and 6.2IP/5ER flanking an outlier 0ER start. His xERA is an elite 2.99 but recent ERA >> xERA signals he is actively struggling, not just unlucky. Crucially, his matchup history vs CHC is catastrophic: 3gs, 9.57 ERA, only 3.1 IP/gs — he consistently melts against this lineup. CHC offense is above average in L12 (wRC+ 124), K% 24.5 (will miss some bats but can hit). Assad vs STL at 0.00 ERA historically means CHC may keep this close, and their run support in Assad starts averages 5.8 RS. CHC Team Total Over 4.5 at +114 is excellent value — we are getting plus-money on a hot offense vs a genuinely struggling pitcher with a terrible specific matchup history.
PIT @ CIN7:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
PIT @ CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Yohan Ramírez
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CIN
No data
Rhett Lowder R
xERA5.06 (below avg)K%15.9 (below avg)HH%46.9 (poor)Barrel%9.4 (avg)ERA9.64IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs51BB%9.1
PIT vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%29.6 (poor)HH%37.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT-116-1.5 (+134)O9.5 (-112)CIN+100+1.5 (-160)U9.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-114-0.5 (+116)O5.5 (-102)CIN-110+0.5 (-152)U5.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO4.5 (-132)U4.5 (+105)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)CINO4.5 (-106)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UYohan Ramírez——Rhett Lowder4.5 (-127 / +114)15.5 (+105 / -125)
Rhett Lowder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24@ W5.07641222
W5.07641222Jul 18@ 
L2.148211088
L2.148211088Jul 12vs L2.0*3010200
L2.0*3010200Jul 8vs W2.0*3623011
W2.0*3623011Jul 4vs L3.0*4002300
L3.0*4002300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Rhett Lowder
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT1.165.451.05.04.0(1)
home starts—
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 6-3 vs CIN this season (9 games).
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 3-6 vs PIT this season (9 games).
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 1-4 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 3-2 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 2.8 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.2 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 3.552d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 4.58 (below avg)ERA 3.402d stress Stressed (11.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph N
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- PIT — Yohan Ramírez: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PIT bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CIN bullpen stressed (11.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-12, 2026-07-08 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: last start: 76 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Yohan Ramírez has NO STATS (first start of season) — this is a hard disqualifying factor that eliminates any bet on this game; Rhett Lowder is also severely limited (recent starts capped at 2-3 IP each, bullpen appearances recently) making the pitching picture too uncertain.
MIA @ 
NYM✓7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
MIA @ NYM✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Eury Perez R
xERA3.01 (good)K%22.4 (avg)HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA2.37IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs99BB%7.9
NYM vs RHP
wRC+104 (avg)K%26.6 (below avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
Nolan McLean R
xERA3.59 (good)K%32.4 (elite)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA1.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs96BB%8.1
MIA vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%25.7 (below avg)HH%46.7 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+114+1.5 (-205)O7.0 (-114)NYM-130-1.5 (+176)U7.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+102+0.5 (-152)O3.5 (-120)NYM-128-0.5 (+116)U3.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO3.5 (+106)U3.5 (-130)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)NYMO3.5 (-110)U3.5 (-113)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEury Perez5.5 (-136 / +108)17.5 (-110 / -115)Nolan McLean6.5 (+105 / -112)17.5 (-180 / +142)
Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs L7.010427133
L7.010427133Jul 19@ L6.09391300
L6.09391300Jul 11vs L6.09968222
L6.09968222Jul 5@ W7.09280000
W7.09280000Jun 30@ W5.18682411
W5.18682411Nolan McLean · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs 
L6.09677224
L6.09677224Jul 19@ W6.093102200
W6.093102200Jul 10vs L6.09875202
L6.09875202Jul 5@ 
W6.09655123
W6.09655123Jun 30@ W6.09175200
W6.09175200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eury Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM3.87.115.32.71.7(3)
at NYM0.2225.000.03.02.0(1)
Nolan McLean
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.01.802.02.05.0(1)
home starts6.04.007.76.32.0(3)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 3-3 vs NYM this season (6 games).
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 5.4 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 5.6 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 3-3 vs MIA this season (6 games).
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 3-2 in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-4 in Nolan McLean's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 4.8 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 3.0 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 4.46 (avg)ERA 5.832d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 2.22 (elite)ERA 1.852d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Overcast, Wind 2 mph SSW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- MIA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- NYM bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- MIA — Eury Perez: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- MIA — Eury Perez: low-K outing 2026-07-25 (2 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day
MIA @ NYM u7.0 (-105)
Both starters are genuinely elite right now. Eury Perez: xERA 3.01, recent ERA 1.49, averaging 7.3 K/start — legitimately hot. Nolan McLean: xERA 3.59, recent ERA 1.00 across 3 starts, 6.3 K/start average — also scorching. Both offenses are average (MIA wRC+ 101, NYM wRC+ 106 L12). NYM bullpen is strong (xERA 3.26). Petco-equivalent neutral park (APF 101). This is a classic ace vs ace under setup. The only caution is Perez's historical struggles vs NYM (7.11 ERA career) and that he had 104 pitches last start — but his form is clearly elite right now and McLean is equally sharp. Under 7.0 at -105 is reasonable juice for two of the hottest starters in the data set.
Nolan McLean K o6.5 (+108)
McLean has a 32.4% K rate and has averaged 6.3 K/start over his recent 3 — all against quality teams (BOS, ATL, TOR). Today he faces MIA with a 26.6% K rate, above average strikeout rate. His adjusted K expectation vs MIA is approximately 6.5-7.0. Getting Over 6.5 at +108 (plus money!) is excellent value — the line seems to underestimate McLean given his elite K% and MIA's strikeout tendencies. Outs line is 17.5 (nearly 6 IP), confirming he's expected to go deep enough to accumulate Ks.
WSN @ ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
WSN @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jake Irvin R
xERA4.40 (avg)K%32.7 (elite)HH%46.4 (poor)Barrel%10.7 (avg)ERA4.50IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs80BB%11.5
ATL vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%25.2 (below avg)HH%35.1 (avg)
Grant Holmes R
xERA4.62 (below avg)K%18.2 (avg)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs85BB%7.6
WSN vs RHP
wRC+153 (elite)K%19.3 (above avg)HH%37.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+134+1.5 (-145)O10.0 (-110)ATL-154-1.5 (+128)U9.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+110+0.5 (-128)O5.5 (-106)ATL-138-0.5 (-102)U5.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)ATLO5.5 (+116)U5.5 (-125)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Irvin3.5 (-111 / -108)13.5 (+108 / -104)Grant Holmes4.5 (+110 / -140)15.5 (+125 / +124)
Jake Irvin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 23@ W5.08070100
W5.08070100May 18vs L4.07466123
L4.07466123May 13@ W3.08644456
W3.08644456May 7vs W5.09228144
W5.09228144May 1vs L5.09856434
L5.09856434Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24@ W5.09156233
W5.09156233Jul 19vs W5.07427233
W5.07427233Jul 8@ W5.09053100
W5.09053100Jul 3vs W5.08225112
W5.08225112Jun 27@ 
L4.0*4741000
L4.0*4741000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jake Irvin
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.34.505.33.71.0(3)
at ATL5.52.454.03.51.5(2)
Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.52.437.05.01.5(2)
home starts4.05.252.05.32.0(3)
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-4 vs ATL this season (7 games).
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 3-2 in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 4-1 in Jake Irvin's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 5.0 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 4.6 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 4-3 vs WSN this season (7 games).
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 4-1 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-2 in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 4.6 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.8 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 3.88 (avg)ERA 4.682d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 4.71 (below avg)ERA 5.632d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
88°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- WSN — Jake Irvin: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ATL bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- WSN — Jake Irvin: 68 days since last start (2026-05-23) — may not be fully stretched out
- WSN — Jake Irvin: 2026-05-13: 5 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WSN — Jake Irvin: recent opponents high-K: CIN 25%, NYM 27%, ATL 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- ATL — Grant Holmes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-27 — may affect pitch count or availability
WSN @ ATL o10.0 (-110)
Jake Irvin is severely struggling (recent ERA 8.31, 3 consecutive bad starts, HH% 46.4%, 68 days since last start and not stretched out), and WSN offense is elite (wRC+ 153 vs RHP). Holmes has been hot recently (recent ERA 0.90) BUT his at-home ERA is 5.25 (4.0 IP/gs at home) and his season xERA is 4.62 (below average baseline). Both bullpens are mediocre-to-bad (WSN xERA 3.88, ATL xERA 4.71). The elite WSN offense (wRC+ 153) will score against the shaky Holmes at home AND the ATL bullpen, and Irvin almost certainly gives up runs early. The 10.0 total is not yet pricing in Irvin's current state of disrepair fully.
Jake Irvin Outs u13.5 (-104)
Irvin has averaged only 4.0 IP/gs this season and 3.7 IP/gs in his recent 3 starts. At 13.5 outs, the line implies 4.5 innings — Irvin has not been clearing that in recent form (3.0IP, 5.0IP, 5.0IP). He has command issues (BB% 11.5%), a sky-high HH% 46.4%, and has been struggling acutely. The ATL bullpen is fresh (0.0 IP over 1g), meaning the manager has zero hesitation pulling Irvin early. 68 days since last start also suggests he's not yet built to go deep. Under 13.5 outs at -104 is solid value.
BOS @ ATH✓9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHot
BOS @ ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Sonny Gray R
xERA3.82 (avg)K%15.3 (below avg)HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA3.71IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs86BB%6.9
ATH vs RHP
wRC+126 (above avg)K%19.1 (above avg)HH%37.2 (avg)
Mason Barnett R
xERA3.72 (good)K%7.4 (poor)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%4.8 (elite)ERA8.44IP/gs5.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs35BB%14.8
BOS vs RHP
wRC+92 (below avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%34.1 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-194-1.5 (-118)O10.0 (-108)ATH+163+1.5 (+105)U10.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-190-0.5 (-140)O5.5 (-115)ATH+154+0.5 (+108)U5.5 (-113)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBOSO5.5 (-125)U5.5 (-102)O3.5 (+114)U3.5 (-145)ATHO3.5 (-145)U3.5 (+116)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USonny Gray4.5 (-140 / +119)17.5 (-146 / +128)Mason Barnett——
Sonny Gray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs L5.075310055
L5.075310055Jul 19vs W6.09155411
W6.09155411Jul 10@ W6.09135111
W6.09135111Jul 4@ 
W6.07074211
W6.07074211Jun 28vs W7.19791100
W7.19791100Mason Barnett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ L3.1*5424122
L3.1*5424122Jul 10@ L1.0*2403133
L1.0*2403133Jul 8@ L1.0*2600200
L1.0*2600200Jul 5vs L2.0*3203022
L2.0*3203022Jul 3vs L2.0*4523244
L2.0*4523244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sonny Gray
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH6.010.505.011.03.0(1)
at ATH—
Mason Barnett
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS3.66.253.06.02.0(2)
home starts—
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 2-1 vs ATH this season (3 games).
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 9-1 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 4-1 in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 5-0 in Sonny Gray's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 5.0 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 6.6 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 1-2 vs BOS this season (3 games).
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 2.89 (elite)ERA 2.062d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 6.06 (poor)ERA 8.192d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
94°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SW
APF 109 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- ATH — Mason Barnett: small sample (5.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- ATH — Mason Barnett: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 6.06 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- BOS bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- BOS — Sonny Gray: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- BOS — Sonny Gray: 2026-07-25: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATH — Mason Barnett: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-25, 2026-07-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 109) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
BOS Team Total o5.5 (-122)
Sonny Gray is scorching hot (recent ERA 0.94) but BOS offense gets a massive gift facing Mason Barnett — who has a 8.44 ERA, 15% BB rate, tiny 5.1 IP sample, recent bullpen appearances affecting his stamina, and a 6.25 ERA in 2 prior starts vs BOS. ATH bullpen xERA 6.03 is a disqualifier for ATH side bets but confirms runs will flow once Barnett exits early. BOS is 9-1 away in Gray's recent starts averaging 6.6 RS away. Hitter-friendly park (APF 109). BOS scoring 5+ is well-supported.
BOS F5 ML (-160)
Sonny Gray is scorching hot (recent ERA 0.94, last 3 starts: 6IP/1ER, 6IP/1ER, 7.1IP/0ER) against a Mason Barnett who has been a disaster (3 starts, max 2IP each, multiple blow-up outings, ERA 8.44, xERA 3.72 but tiny sample). Gray's xERA 3.82 is solid and his form is elite. BOS offense is average vs RHP but ATH's F5 run production against Gray should be minimal. ATH bullpen is disqualifying for full-game ML but not for F5. The edge is clear in the first 5 innings — Gray dominates, Barnett collapses. The -160 is steep but the asymmetry is real. Flag: prefer alternate expressions.
ATH Team Total u4.5 (-140)
Sonny Gray is in the best form of his recent stretch (recent ERA 0.94 across 3 starts) facing an ATH offense that rates wRC+ 126 in L12 but will be neutralized by Gray's elite current stuff. Historically Gray struggled vs ATH (10.50 ERA in 1gs), but that's a tiny sample vs his current trajectory. ATH bullpen being terrible (-disqualifies full-game ML) actually reinforces the team total under angle: Gray will limit ATH scoring, and even if BOS pen is mediocre, the total scoring is anchored on how many runs ATH generates. 4.5 at -140 is borderline — flag for line.
BOS @ ATH F5 o5.5 (-115)
Mason Barnett is severely compromised: 5.1 IP over 3 starts (recent bullpen appearances 7/25 and 7/10), command issues (BB% 14.8%), ERA 8.44 vs xERA 3.72 signals real struggles, and recent starts capped at 2.0 IP with ERs. ATH offense is hot (wRC+ 126 vs RHP). Sonny Gray's last start was only 75 pitches (early hook flag) and his one prior outing vs ATH was a 10.50 ERA — so both offenses could contribute. Hitter-friendly park (APF 109). Barnett very unlikely to get through 5 clean innings; BOS bullpen fresh but ATH pen is a disaster (xERA 6.06). Enough juice on both sides for runs before the 5th inning ends.
SFG @ SDP✓9:40 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
SFG @ SDP✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Robbie Ray L
xERA3.79 (avg)K%21.4 (avg)HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%4.4 (elite)ERA1.20IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs89BB%14.3
SDP vs LHP
wRC+96 (avg)K%19.2 (above avg)HH%52.4 (elite)
JP Sears L
xERA2.54 (elite)K%18.4 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%2.6 (elite)ERA2.84IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs61BB%4.1
SFG vs LHP
wRC+69 (poor)K%23.5 (avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+135+1.5 (-158)O8.5 (+100)SDP-154-1.5 (+136)U8.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+120+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (-115)SDP-142-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-113)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (-111)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)SDPO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/URobbie Ray4.5 (-104 / -114)JP Sears3.5 (-106 / -109)
Robbie Ray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs W6.08056200
W6.08056200Jul 19@ 
L4.08668213
L4.08668213Jul 10vs L5.010044611
L5.010044611Jul 4@ W6.08845333
W6.08845333Jun 28vs W8.09524101
W8.09524101JP Sears · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ W3.1*5531100
W3.1*5531100Jul 20@ L5.05533012
L5.05533012Jul 10vs L4.17236133
L4.17236133Jul 5@ W5.07651200
W5.07651200Jun 30@ L4.29548367
L4.29548367SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Robbie Ray
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP6.42.816.34.71.0(3)
at SDP6.20.006.03.01.0(1)
JP Sears
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG5.32.813.34.32.0(3)
home starts4.84.344.06.02.0(3)
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 3-3 vs SDP this season (6 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 3-2 in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 3-2 in Robbie Ray's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 4.8 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 9.6 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 3-3 vs SFG this season (6 games).
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP have won 5 straight.
- SDP are 2-3 in JP Sears's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-1 in JP Sears's last 2 home starts.
- SDP average 4.4 runs/game in JP Sears's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 4.0 runs/game in JP Sears's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.26 (good)ERA 3.542d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 2.00 (elite)ERA 3.862d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- SFG — Robbie Ray: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- SFG bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP — JP Sears: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-25 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SDP — JP Sears: last start: 55 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
SFG F5 ML (-110)
Robbie Ray is hot (recent ERA 1.89, season ERA 1.20) and has a strong history vs SDP (2.81 ERA, 6.4 IP/gs across 3 career starts) including a shutout at Petco. JP Sears is a NO STATS first-time starter — disqualified from any bets favoring SDP's pitching. The F5 captures Ray's dominance while avoiding SFG's elevated bullpen (5.3 IP yesterday). SFG offense has been averaging 9.6 RS away in SP recent starts. SDP offense vs LHP is average (wRC+ 101). The F5 ML at -110 for SFG is fair given Ray vs an unknown opponent starter.
SFG @ SDP u8.5 (-118)
Robbie Ray is hot (recent ERA 1.89, 5IP/1ER, 6IP/3ER, 8IP/0ER) with solid xERA 3.79 and strong history vs SDP (2.81 ERA, 6.4 IP/gs). SFG offense vs LHP is one of the worst in baseball (wRC+ 69 in L12) — Ray and Sears both throw from the left side, which suppresses both offenses' production (SDP vs LHP also only wRC+ 96). JP Sears xERA is elite (2.54) even though recent ERA is elevated (6.09); season ERA 2.84 vs xERA 2.54 suggests he's been a bit unlucky. SDP bullpen is elite (xERA 2.00). Petco Park is a pitcher's park (APF 99). Three clear under signals align: cold SFG offense vs LHP, Petco suppression, elite SDP pen. The main risk is Sears' recent struggles, but xERA says the talent is real. Under 8.5 at -118 is reasonable.
SEA @ LAD10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
SEA @ LADMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryan Woo R
xERA3.84 (avg)K%22.4 (avg)HH%42.6 (below avg)Barrel%5.6 (good)ERA5.63IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs93BB%6.6
LAD vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%23.4 (avg)HH%40.9 (above avg)
Roki Sasaki R
xERA2.54 (elite)K%27.1 (good)HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA1.93IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs89BB%5.7
SEA vs RHP
wRC+78 (poor)K%18.1 (above avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+135+1.5 (-152)O9.0 (+102)LAD-156-1.5 (+130)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+124+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-130)LAD-148-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USEAO3.5 (-136)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)LADO4.5 (-106)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryan Woo5.5 (+128 / -156)17.5 (-121 / -102)Roki Sasaki5.5 (+100 / -108)17.5 (+118 / -125)
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ L5.09559255
L5.09559255Jul 18vs W6.09876223
W6.09876223Jul 7@ L5.08759134
L5.08759134Jun 30vs W6.110654122
W6.110654122Jun 24@ L4.08646255
L4.08646255Roki Sasaki · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24@ W7.09493211
W7.09493211Jul 17@ W5.29455101
W5.29455101Jul 8vs W6.07854133
W6.07854133Jul 2vs W3.08837266
W3.08837266Jun 26@ L4.08123533
L4.08123533SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Roki Sasaki
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA—
home starts4.77.614.75.01.3(3)
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 1-1 vs LAD this season (2 games).
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 2-3 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 0-5 in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 3.8 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 3.0 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 1-1 vs SEA this season (2 games).
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 4-1 in Roki Sasaki's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-1 in Roki Sasaki's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 4.6 runs/game in Roki Sasaki's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 5.2 runs/game in Roki Sasaki's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 3.08 (good)ERA 3.052d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 5.24 (below avg)ERA 5.672d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
74°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- LAD bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.24 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- SEA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-07-25: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAD — Roki Sasaki: recent opponents high-K: COL 26%, NYY 27%, NYM 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Both starters are currently struggling (Woo recent ERA 5.96, Sasaki recent ERA 8.31), but the LAD ML is already -156 (too expensive), the total has a split line (O9.0/U8.5 — unusual market signal) suggesting uncertainty, and the LAD bullpen is bad (xERA 5.24) while the SEA offense is very cold (wRC+ 78); no clean edge emerges at acceptable pricing.