MLB Game Overviews

Friday, July 3, 2026

Updated 21:00 UTC · Odds Updated 20:58 UTC

AI Picks · 16 Bets · Jul 3
PIT @ WSN F5 u4.5 (+112)
Foster Griffin is elite (xERA 2.24, recent ERA 1.59 over 3 starts, 6.8 IP/gs) and PIT wRC+ only 70 vs LHP (poor) with K% 28% — he matches up perfectly. Despite Griffin's 7.06 ERA in 1 prior start vs PIT, his current form is dominant. Mitch Keller is struggling (recent ERA 8.12) but WSN wRC+ 124 is dangerous — the concern here limits a full-game under. F5 captures Griffin's dominance against a weak PIT lineup while limiting exposure to WSN's bad bullpen. Getting +112 on the under is excellent value given Griffin's elite metrics. Note: WSN bullpen flag (xERA 5.18) disqualifies full-game under.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
WSN F5 ML (-164)
Foster Griffin has an elite xERA (2.24), elite ERA (0.89), and recent ERA of 1.59 across 3 starts — genuinely locked in. PIT offense vs LHP is poor (wRC+ 70 L12, K% 28%), and Griffin's K% of 30.4 is elite. Mitch Keller is struggling badly (recent ERA 8.12, HH% 49%, high pitch counts). WSN offense is strong vs RHP (wRC+ 124). This is a dominant F5 edge on the pitching side. The -164 is steep, but the WSN bullpen concern (xERA 5.18) is exactly why we cap it at F5 rather than full game ML.
Found at 11:48 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider WSN -0.5 F5 Spread at -118 for better value if -164 ML is too steep.
Mike Paredes u14.5 Outs (-126)
Mike Paredes is a deeply concerning starter: xERA 7.22 (poor/historically bad), HH% 58.9% (batters crushing the ball), K% 7.7% (near-historic low). His recent pitch counts: 59, 58, 50 — all very short, averaging just 55.7 pitches per start with 3-4.7 IP per outing. He's averaging 5.0 IP/gs on paper but his recent 3 starts show 4.2, 3.0, 3.2 IP — way under the 14.5 out threshold (4.83 IP). NYY's wRC+ vs RHP is 15 (poor) and their K% is 31.2% — BUT the NYY stadium has a 107 APF (hitter-friendly) and NYY's offense, even cold, should be able to make contact against a pitcher this limited. The MIN bullpen flag (elevated) suggests the manager may lean on the starter, but with pitch counts this low, an early hook is almost inevitable. Adjusted expectation: ~12-14 outs (4-4.7 IP). At -126, the Under 14.5 outs has solid value.
Found at 5:00 PM ET
SFG Team Total o5.5 (-130)
SFG faces Ryan Feltner who has a recent ERA of 5.66 over 3 starts and a 5.03 ERA at home in 3 starts this season. Playing at Coors Field (APF 115 — most hitter-friendly park in baseball). SFG offense wRC+ 121 (above avg). COL bullpen xERA 5.09 (bad) means Giants keep scoring after Feltner exits. Logan Webb dominant on the mound is irrelevant here — this is a pure offensive team total play for SFG scoring at Coors vs a struggling home starter and weak pen.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
SFG -1.5 (+102)
Logan Webb is arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball right now: xERA 2.37 (elite), recent ERA 0.39 over his last 3 starts (8, 8, 7 IP allowing 1 total run), averaging 6.0 K/start, and he has a proven track record vs COL (3gs, 1.90 ERA) and at Coors (2gs, 2.97 ERA). Feltner is struggling (recent ERA 5.66, only 4.7 IP/gs recently). SFG offense is above average (wRC+ 121 L12). Even at Coors, Webb's elite ability to suppress hard contact (HH% 29, Barrel% 3.2) plays. At +102, this is excellent value for a team with the best pitcher in the game today.
Found at 11:48 AM ET
SFG @ COL F5 u5.5 (-102)
Logan Webb is arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now — xERA 2.37, recent ERA 0.39, averaging 7.7 IP/gs with three straight gems (8, 8, 7 IP, 1 ER total). He's historically solid vs COL (1.90 ERA in 3gs) and has a 2.97 ERA in 2 starts at Coors. Even at Coors (APF 115), Webb has the profile to shut down the first half. Feltner's matchup history vs SFG is limited but his recent ERA is 5.66 and he's been shaky (4.1 IP avg in last 2 starts). BUT — SFG's offense (wRC+ 121) is dangerous and could touch up Feltner early. The F5 Under at -102 is a steal: Webb alone should allow 0-1 runs in his half, and even if Feltner allows 2-3, you still get to under 5.5 total fairly easily. The full-game under at 11.5 is hard to trust given Coors and both shaky bullpens (SFG xERA 4.64, COL 4.76). The F5 isolates Webb's dominance and limits bullpen exposure. Webb has gone 8 IP in two of his last three starts — no early hook risk here.
Found at 5:00 PM ET
Logan Webb o4.5 Ks (-156)
Webb averages 6.0 K/start in his last 3 outings (7K, 7K, 4K), all against teams with varying K rates. COL K% vs RHP is 19.7% — roughly average, similar to the opponents he's been facing. His season K% is 21.7% and he's going deep (7.7 IP/gs avg). The Outs O/U is 18.5 (-112/-119), confirming the market expects a long outing, giving him plenty of innings to accumulate Ks. Adjusted expectation: ~5.5-6.0 Ks. The line of 4.5 Ks is well below that — this is a clear value spot. The -156 juice is steep and triggers the line warning threshold, but this is the lower of the two K lines available. Webb's elite form and expected deep outing make this worth flagging.
Found at 5:00 PM ET
Line Warning: If -156 is too steep, consider targeting Webb Outs Over 18.5 at -112, which is also supported by his 7.7 IP/gs avg and elite recent form — cleaner price for essentially the same edge.
LAA F5 ML (-140)
Reid Detmers is absolutely dominant right now: recent ERA 0.45 over 3 starts (7.0IP/0ER, 7.0IP/1ER, 6.0IP/0ER), xERA 3.32 (good), 1.78 ERA at home in 3 starts this season. BOS offense wRC+ only 124 vs LHP but Jake Bennett for BOS is STRUGGLING (recent ERA 5.92, avg only 3.3 K/start with K% dropping vs better lineups). Detmers' dominance in the first 5 innings is the primary edge. F5 ML at -140 is at the pricing limit but justified given Detmers' exceptional current form. LAA 4-1 in SP home starts L5.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
Line Warning: If -140 is too steep, consider LAA Team Total Under 3.5 for BOS as a fade, or look for a better-priced LAA F5 line.
BOS Team Total u3.5 (+102)
Reid Detmers is as hot as any pitcher in baseball right now: recent ERA 0.45 over his last 3 starts (7 IP shutout, 7 IP 1 ER, 6 IP shutout), averaging 6.0 K/start. His xERA of 3.32 is solid and his home ERA of 1.78 in 3 starts is elite. BOS offense vs LHP is above average (wRC+ 124) but Detmers has been virtually unhittable. BOS team trends in Bennett's recent starts show only 3.0 avg RS (1-4 in last 5 SP starts, 0-2 in last 2 away). The +102 on BOS under 3.5 is plus-money for a team facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball at his home park. Bennett is struggling (recent ERA 5.92) so this is purely a Detmers dominance bet — BOS team total under is the cleanest expression.
Found at 11:48 AM ET
MIA @ ATH o10.5 (-106)
Both starters are genuinely struggling right now: Tyler Phillips has xERA 6.04 (poor), recent ERA 8.00 over 3 starts, HH% 54%, Barrel% 14% — extreme hard contact risk. Jack Perkins has recent ERA 7.62, ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.62 (ERA > xERA gap — bad results are real). MIA offense wRC+ 139 (elite) vs RHP. Hitter-friendly park (APF 108 — flag confirms park boosts offense). Both bullpens are non-factors as primary stoppers. Phillips' 8 ER in 4.0 IP last month is the ceiling for this guy. The total at 10.5 still reflects value given both starters' current trajectories.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
MIL Team Total o4.5 (-122)
Kyle Harrison is in acute struggle mode (recent ERA 6.09 with a disastrous 8-ER outing in his last 3), and while one start was an outlier (2.1 IP/8 ER), his overall form is clearly degraded from his xERA baseline. MIL offense vs RHP is elite (wRC+ 126 L12, HH% 43.9). ARI bullpen is a disqualifying liability (xERA 5.20). Harrison's recent struggles vs Cabrera's mediocre profile (xERA 3.70, avg K%) plus the ARI pen exposure gives MIL a legitimate path to 5+ runs. MIL has averaged 7.8 RS in Harrison's away starts (4-1 record). The team total over 4.5 at -122 captures this offensive edge without dependence on ARI scoring.
Found at 11:48 AM ET
TOR @ SEA u7.0 (-103)
Elite pitching matchup: Dylan Cease xERA 2.81 (elite), recent ERA 1.78 (HOT), averaging 8.7 K/start. Luis Castillo xERA 2.96 (elite), recent ERA 2.60, 7.8 IP/gs workhorse. Both offenses are cold: TOR wRC+ 90 (below avg), SEA wRC+ 80 (below avg). Pitcher-friendly park (APF 91 — flag confirms suppresses offense). SEA bullpen xERA 3.00 (solid). TOR bullpen xERA 3.74 (solid). Cease's last start was 107 pitches (minor concern about early hook), but the bullpen flag says manager likely leaves him in longer due to TOR bullpen being stressed. Note: Cease's bad ERA vs SEA historically (8.78 in 1 start) and bad command (BB% 19%) are risks, but his current form is elite and the park + both cold offenses strongly support the under at just -103.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
Dylan Cease Ks o7.5 (-104)
Cease is averaging 8.7 K/start over his last 3 outings (7K, 11K, 8K). K% of 36.2% is exceptional. SEA lineup K% 27.0% vs RHP — above-average strikeout rate, comparable to recent opponents (BOS ~21%, PHI ~22%, PIT ~26%). SEA actually strikes out at a higher rate than most of Cease's recent opponents, which supports the high K line being reachable. Adjusted expectation ~8.5+ Ks. Line of 7.5 at -104 is excellent pricing for a pitcher of this caliber. Outs line at 17.5 (nearly 6 innings) suggests market expects him to pitch deep enough to accumulate. BB% 19% is a concern but elite K% overcomes it. TOR bullpen stressed means manager extends Cease.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
PIT Team Total u9.5 (-110)
Wait — the correct angle here is WSN's total, not game total. Foster Griffin is elite: xERA 2.24, recent ERA 1.59, 6.8 IP/gs, and PIT vs LHP is wRC+ 70 (poor) with 28.0 K% — exactly the profile Griffin exploits. PIT's offense is cold against lefties. Mitch Keller is struggling (recent ERA 8.12, STRUGGLING flag) with HH% 49% — batters are teeing off. WSN's offense is hot (wRC+ 124 vs RHP). The game total O10.0 at +102 / U9.5 at -110 is interesting. The PIT side of the total should be suppressed by Griffin; the WSN side may be elevated by Keller's struggles. However, WSN's bullpen (xERA 5.18, disqualifying for ML/spread) is a disaster. This is best expressed as a PIT ML side-fade via WSN Team Total OVER, but the cleaner bet is the PIT Team Total Under given Griffin's elite profile vs a weak PIT vs LHP lineup. NOTE: The data shows only game total odds listed, so using game total under as closest proxy.
Found at 5:00 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
STL @ CHC o10.5 (-108)
Elite over conditions: CHC offense wRC+ 146 (elite) vs Pallante who has a brutal 11.74 ERA in 3 career starts at this matchup (3.1 IP/gs avg — gets hammered early). STL wRC+ only 68 vs LHP but David Peterson has a 6.39 ERA, 4.52 xERA, short recent outings (3.0, 3.2, 4.0 IP), only 69 pitches last start (early hook concern), and a 10.80 ERA at home in 1 prior start. Both bullpens are bad (STL xERA 5.17, CHC xERA 4.65). CHC 9-1 L10, averaging 8.0 RS in this starter's recent starts. Multiple disqualifying factors for both pitchers — Pallante gets destroyed by CHC historically, Peterson has early-hook risk and bad xERA. Stacked over signals.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
CHC Team Total o5.5 (-125)
CHC offense is elite (wRC+ 146 L12) facing Pallante who has a 11.74 ERA in 3 career starts vs CHC with only 3.1 IP/gs average — he gets lit up and exits early. STL bullpen xERA 5.17 means the Cubs will keep scoring after Pallante exits. CHC averaging 8.0 RS in this starter's last start trend. Pure offensive edge play that doesn't depend on STL scoring.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
STL @ CHC
4:05 PM · Wrigley FieldRainy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Andre Pallante R
xERA3.24 (good)K%15.8 (below avg)HH%33.9 (good)Barrel%3.2 (elite)ERA3.66IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs72BB%1.3
CHC vs RHP
wRC+146 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)HH%35.3 (avg)
David Peterson L
xERA4.52 (below avg)K%15.1 (below avg)HH%26.8 (elite)Barrel%4.9 (elite)ERA6.39IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs66BB%7.5
STL vs LHP
wRC+68 (poor)K%19.5 (above avg)HH%40.7 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+136+1.5 (-140)O8.5 (-105)CHC-150-1.5 (+136)U8.5 (-110)
Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3@ CHCW2.03312100
Jun 27vs MIAL6.298411155
Jun 22vs ARIW6.08526011
Jun 16vs SDPW7.09264022
Jun 10@ NYMW6.09353222
David Peterson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs STLL2.05035033
Jun 27@ MILW5.26925022
Jun 21@ PHIL4.07956245
Jun 15@ CINL3.0*5412233
Jun 10vs STLL3.2*6317266
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andre Pallante
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC2.114.521.35.71.0(3)
at CHC2.00.001.02.01.0(1)
David Peterson
IPERAKHBB
vs STL3.57.616.06.00.0(2)
home starts2.013.503.05.00.0(1)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.49 (avg)ERA 4.822d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
CHC
xERA 4.65 (below avg)ERA 4.892d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
77°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph NW
APF 98 — Neutral · Rain possible (24%)
Flags · 7
  • STL bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CHC bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • STL — Andre Pallante: 2026-06-27: 5 ER in 6.2 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • STL — Andre Pallante: recent opponents low-K: ARI 16%, MIA 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
  • CHC — David Peterson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-15, 2026-06-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • CHC — David Peterson: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • WEATHER: rain risk 24% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
STL @ CHC o10.5 (-108)
Elite over conditions: CHC offense wRC+ 146 (elite) vs Pallante who has a brutal 11.74 ERA in 3 career starts at this matchup (3.1 IP/gs avg — gets hammered early). STL wRC+ only 68 vs LHP but David Peterson has a 6.39 ERA, 4.52 xERA, short recent outings (3.0, 3.2, 4.0 IP), only 69 pitches last start (early hook concern), and a 10.80 ERA at home in 1 prior start. Both bullpens are bad (STL xERA 5.17, CHC xERA 4.65). CHC 9-1 L10, averaging 8.0 RS in this starter's recent starts. Multiple disqualifying factors for both pitchers — Pallante gets destroyed by CHC historically, Peterson has early-hook risk and bad xERA. Stacked over signals.
CHC Team Total o5.5 (-125)
CHC offense is elite (wRC+ 146 L12) facing Pallante who has a 11.74 ERA in 3 career starts vs CHC with only 3.1 IP/gs average — he gets lit up and exits early. STL bullpen xERA 5.17 means the Cubs will keep scoring after Pallante exits. CHC averaging 8.0 RS in this starter's last start trend. Pure offensive edge play that doesn't depend on STL scoring.
PIT @ WSN
6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mitch Keller R
xERA4.23 (avg)K%20.5 (avg)HH%49.0 (poor)Barrel%5.9 (good)ERA5.19IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs89BB%8.2
WSN vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%25.3 (below avg)HH%42.3 (above avg)
Foster Griffin L
xERA2.24 (elite)K%30.4 (elite)HH%32.0 (good)Barrel%4.0 (elite)ERA0.89IP/gs6.8 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs106BB%5.1
PIT vs LHP
wRC+70 (poor)K%28.0 (poor)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT-150-1.5 (+100)O10.0 (+102)WSN+138+1.5 (-115)U9.5 (-110)
Mitch Keller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28vs CINW6.07945134
Jun 23vs SEAL6.09247133
Jun 16@ ATHW5.19674415
Jun 11vs LADL4.09837455
Jun 5@ ATLL4.29947366
Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ BALW7.011293201
Jun 22vs PHIW7.110594011
Jun 16vs KCRW6.010066211
Jun 10@ SFGL6.010056011
Jun 5@ ARIW5.06242011
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mitch Keller
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.05.963.35.32.3(3)
at WSN5.13.534.04.01.0(1)
Foster Griffin
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.17.067.08.01.0(1)
home starts6.02.496.75.01.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 4.18 (avg)ERA 3.802d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
WSN
xERA 5.18 (below avg)ERA 6.432d stress Stressed (6.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
102°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.18 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • PIT bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • WSN bullpen stressed (6.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: recent opponents high-K: ATH 28%, SEA 27%, CIN 29% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • WSN — Foster Griffin: last start: 112 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • WSN — Foster Griffin: recent opponents high-K: PHI 27%, BAL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
PIT @ WSN F5 u4.5 (+112)
Foster Griffin is elite (xERA 2.24, recent ERA 1.59 over 3 starts, 6.8 IP/gs) and PIT wRC+ only 70 vs LHP (poor) with K% 28% — he matches up perfectly. Despite Griffin's 7.06 ERA in 1 prior start vs PIT, his current form is dominant. Mitch Keller is struggling (recent ERA 8.12) but WSN wRC+ 124 is dangerous — the concern here limits a full-game under. F5 captures Griffin's dominance against a weak PIT lineup while limiting exposure to WSN's bad bullpen. Getting +112 on the under is excellent value given Griffin's elite metrics. Note: WSN bullpen flag (xERA 5.18) disqualifies full-game under.
WSN F5 ML (-164)
Foster Griffin has an elite xERA (2.24), elite ERA (0.89), and recent ERA of 1.59 across 3 starts — genuinely locked in. PIT offense vs LHP is poor (wRC+ 70 L12, K% 28%), and Griffin's K% of 30.4 is elite. Mitch Keller is struggling badly (recent ERA 8.12, HH% 49%, high pitch counts). WSN offense is strong vs RHP (wRC+ 124). This is a dominant F5 edge on the pitching side. The -164 is steep, but the WSN bullpen concern (xERA 5.18) is exactly why we cap it at F5 rather than full game ML.
PIT Team Total u9.5 (-110)
Wait — the correct angle here is WSN's total, not game total. Foster Griffin is elite: xERA 2.24, recent ERA 1.59, 6.8 IP/gs, and PIT vs LHP is wRC+ 70 (poor) with 28.0 K% — exactly the profile Griffin exploits. PIT's offense is cold against lefties. Mitch Keller is struggling (recent ERA 8.12, STRUGGLING flag) with HH% 49% — batters are teeing off. WSN's offense is hot (wRC+ 124 vs RHP). The game total O10.0 at +102 / U9.5 at -110 is interesting. The PIT side of the total should be suppressed by Griffin; the WSN side may be elevated by Keller's struggles. However, WSN's bullpen (xERA 5.18, disqualifying for ML/spread) is a disaster. This is best expressed as a PIT ML side-fade via WSN Team Total OVER, but the cleaner bet is the PIT Team Total Under given Griffin's elite profile vs a weak PIT vs LHP lineup. NOTE: The data shows only game total odds listed, so using game total under as closest proxy.
MIN @ NYY
7:05 PM · Yankee StadiumHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mike Paredes R
xERA7.22 (poor)K%7.7 (poor)HH%58.9 (poor)Barrel%10.7 (avg)ERA4.20IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs69BB%4.6
NYY vs RHP
wRC+15 (poor)K%31.2 (poor)HH%35.6 (avg)
Gerrit Cole R
xERA3.90 (avg)K%22.5 (avg)HH%42.0 (below avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA6.32IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs89BB%5.6
MIN vs RHP
wRC+148 (elite)K%15.0 (elite)HH%37.7 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+184+1.5 (-110)O10.0 (-104)NYY-220-1.5 (-107)U9.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+154+0.5 (+108)O5.5 (-110)NYY-190-0.5 (-140)U5.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO3.5 (-145)U3.5 (+116)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)NYYO5.5 (-111)U5.5 (-115)O3.5 (+114)U3.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMike Paredes3.5 (+116 / -140)14.5 (-102 / -126)Gerrit Cole5.5 (+100 / -126)17.5 (-125 / +107)
Mike Paredes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs COLL5.17428033
Jun 21@ ARIW5.07516322
Jun 15@ TEXW4.25924022
Jun 10@ DETW3.05841211
Jun 4vs KCRL3.2*5012133
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ BOSL5.18957144
Jun 22@ DETL4.18959155
Jun 16vs CHWW6.09063222
Jun 9@ CLEW4.08345222
Jun 3vs CLEL5.18326144
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gerrit Cole
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN
home starts5.73.163.33.72.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 4.73 (below avg)ERA 6.962d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 2.31 (elite)ERA 2.202d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
101°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph W
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
  • MIN — Mike Paredes: HH% 59% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • MIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • NYY bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • MIN — Mike Paredes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-04, 2026-05-31 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • MIN — Mike Paredes: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
Mike Paredes u14.5 Outs (-126)
Mike Paredes is a deeply concerning starter: xERA 7.22 (poor/historically bad), HH% 58.9% (batters crushing the ball), K% 7.7% (near-historic low). His recent pitch counts: 59, 58, 50 — all very short, averaging just 55.7 pitches per start with 3-4.7 IP per outing. He's averaging 5.0 IP/gs on paper but his recent 3 starts show 4.2, 3.0, 3.2 IP — way under the 14.5 out threshold (4.83 IP). NYY's wRC+ vs RHP is 15 (poor) and their K% is 31.2% — BUT the NYY stadium has a 107 APF (hitter-friendly) and NYY's offense, even cold, should be able to make contact against a pitcher this limited. The MIN bullpen flag (elevated) suggests the manager may lean on the starter, but with pitch counts this low, an early hook is almost inevitable. Adjusted expectation: ~12-14 outs (4-4.7 IP). At -126, the Under 14.5 outs has solid value.
BAL @ CIN
7:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Trevor Rogers L
xERA2.07 (elite)K%23.9 (good)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%4.0 (elite)ERA1.40IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs88BB%5.6
CIN vs LHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%25.0 (below avg)HH%40.5 (above avg)
Brady Singer R
xERA3.87 (avg)K%25.4 (good)HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA3.31IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs98BB%7.0
BAL vs RHP
wRC+95 (avg)K%27.7 (below avg)HH%39.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+110+1.5 (-190)O9.5 (-102)CIN-122-1.5 (+164)U9.0 (-101)
Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26vs WSNW6.18775011
Jun 20@ LADW7.09661200
Jun 14vs SDPL6.08245222
Jun 9vs SEAL5.29736133
Jun 4@ BOSW5.28735111
Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28@ PITL4.19869055
Jun 22vs MILL7.010672200
Jun 16vs NYMW5.09153311
Jun 10@ SDPL6.09556122
Jun 5@ STLL4.08964314
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL
home starts5.72.124.73.03.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.33 (elite)ERA 2.912d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 3.78 (avg)ERA 4.502d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
98°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph WSW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 1
  • CIN — Brady Singer: 2026-06-28: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Brady Singer is HOT (recent ERA 2.40) and pitching at hitter-friendly GABP (APF 107), but Trevor Rogers' recent ERA of 3.29 is elevated vs his elite xERA 2.07, and CIN offense is strong vs LHP (wRC+ 129). The total is oddly split (O9.5 at -102 / U9.0 at -101) — the half-run gap signals market uncertainty. Rogers recent struggles + hitter-friendly park + strong CIN offense = conflicting signals. No high-confidence play.
CHW @ CLE
7:10 PM · Progressive FieldHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Anthony Kay L
xERA3.65 (good)K%18.2 (avg)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA5.27IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs87BB%6.1
CLE vs LHP
wRC+11 (poor)K%34.3 (poor)HH%35.1 (avg)
Gavin Williams R
xERA3.70 (good)K%26.1 (good)HH%46.7 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA6.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs95BB%8.7
CHW vs RHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%21.3 (avg)HH%39.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+125+1.5 (-170)O8.0 (-102)CLE-142-1.5 (+158)U7.5 (-106)
Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28vs KCRL3.27327145
Jun 22vs CLEW6.010183200
Jun 17@ NYYL4.08626144
Jun 12vs LADW5.08974122
Jun 5@ PHIL4.08747266
Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28vs SEAW5.010366323
Jun 22@ CHWL5.09585122
Jun 17@ MILL5.08747277
Jun 8vs NYYL5.09054334
Jun 3@ NYYW5.19664133
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Anthony Kay
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE6.00.008.03.02.0(1)
at CLE
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.03.606.74.02.7(3)
home starts5.73.185.04.32.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 3.732d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
CLE
xERA 5.09 (below avg)ERA 4.592d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
90°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WNW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 9
  • CLE — Gavin Williams: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CLE bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.09 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • CHW bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CLE bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CHW — Anthony Kay: last start: 73 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • CHW — Anthony Kay: 2026-06-28: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • CHW — Anthony Kay: recent opponents high-K: NYY 29%, CLE 34% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-06-17: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters are STRUGGLING badly (Kay recent ERA 8.31, Williams 7.75). The Over at 8.0 (-102) / Under 7.5 (-106) is an interesting setup but both offenses are wildly divergent (CHW wRC+ 118 vs RHP; CLE wRC+ 11 vs LHP — historic low). The CLE offense (wRC+ 11!) is so cold vs LHP that it alone could suppress scoring even with Kay struggling. Both bullpens are also problematic (CLE xERA 5.09 disqualifying). Too many extreme signals pulling in different directions — no confident read.
NYM @ ATL
7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Christian Scott R
xERA4.71 (below avg)K%24.6 (good)HH%36.6 (avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA3.68IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs89BB%8.2
ATL vs RHP
wRC+41 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
Grant Holmes R
xERA4.45 (avg)K%19.2 (avg)HH%38.2 (avg)Barrel%8.8 (avg)ERA2.92IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs64BB%13.5
NYM vs RHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%24.5 (below avg)HH%47.0 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+144+1.5 (-145)O8.0 (-110)ATL-162-1.5 (+130)U7.5 (+107)
Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs PHIW4.18263222
Jun 11vs STLW4.28867144
Jun 5@ SDPW5.29833200
May 30vs MIAW5.09685211
May 24@ MIAL5.29454200
Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ SFGL4.0*4741000
Jun 22@ SDPL4.29143511
Jun 16vs SFGL2.05524333
Jun 9@ CHWL3.26724233
Jun 3vs TORW6.08945222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.03.606.06.03.0(1)
home starts4.34.855.35.02.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 4.00 (avg)ERA 4.092d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.26 (good)ERA 3.052d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph NW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 5
  • ATL — Grant Holmes: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • NYM bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • NYM — Christian Scott: 2026-06-11: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • ATL — Grant Holmes: 11 days since last start (2026-06-22) — may not be fully stretched out
  • ATL — Grant Holmes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-27 — may affect pitch count or availability
AI Analysis
Christian Scott is HOT (recent ERA 0.58) but xERA 4.71 is below average — a luck regression risk. Grant Holmes is struggling (recent ERA 6.43) but has 11 days rest and a bullpen appearance recently, adding uncertainty. Both offenses are cold (NYM wRC+ 87, ATL wRC+ 41). ATL ML at -162 is too expensive and exceeds our threshold. No clean play.
SFG @ COL
8:10 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Logan Webb R
xERA2.37 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)HH%29.0 (elite)Barrel%3.2 (elite)ERA0.78IP/gs7.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs100BB%3.6
COL vs RHP
wRC+110 (avg)K%19.7 (above avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Ryan Feltner R
xERA3.65 (good)K%12.9 (below avg)HH%31.5 (good)Barrel%3.7 (elite)ERA2.70IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%10.0
SFG vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%19.8 (above avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG-150-1.5 (+100)O11.5 (-105)COL+132+1.5 (-111)U11.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG-166-0.5 (-125)O5.5 (-128)COL+132+0.5 (-104)U5.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO6.5 (+104)U6.5 (-120)O3.5 (+120)U3.5 (-154)COLO4.5 (-135)U4.5 (+108)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Webb4.5 (-156 / +128)18.5 (-112 / -119)Ryan Feltner3.5 (+133 / -162)15.5 (+108 / -130)
Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs ATLW7.09261200
Jun 21@ MIAL8.010355122
Jun 14vs CHCW8.010677001
Jun 8vs WSNL8.09975011
Jun 3@ MILW7.09541100
Ryan Feltner · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28@ MINL6.08205012
Jun 22vs BOSW6.09324422
Jun 16@ CHCW4.210476322
Jun 11vs CHCL4.17534366
Jun 5vs MILL6.08141211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Webb
IPERAKHBB
vs COL4.71.906.74.31.7(3)
at COL4.52.976.05.02.5(2)
Ryan Feltner
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.00.002.04.00.0(1)
home starts5.45.033.03.03.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 4.64 (below avg)ERA 5.182d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 4.76 (below avg)ERA 5.442d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph NW
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
  • COL bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
SFG Team Total o5.5 (-130)
SFG faces Ryan Feltner who has a recent ERA of 5.66 over 3 starts and a 5.03 ERA at home in 3 starts this season. Playing at Coors Field (APF 115 — most hitter-friendly park in baseball). SFG offense wRC+ 121 (above avg). COL bullpen xERA 5.09 (bad) means Giants keep scoring after Feltner exits. Logan Webb dominant on the mound is irrelevant here — this is a pure offensive team total play for SFG scoring at Coors vs a struggling home starter and weak pen.
SFG -1.5 (+102)
Logan Webb is arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball right now: xERA 2.37 (elite), recent ERA 0.39 over his last 3 starts (8, 8, 7 IP allowing 1 total run), averaging 6.0 K/start, and he has a proven track record vs COL (3gs, 1.90 ERA) and at Coors (2gs, 2.97 ERA). Feltner is struggling (recent ERA 5.66, only 4.7 IP/gs recently). SFG offense is above average (wRC+ 121 L12). Even at Coors, Webb's elite ability to suppress hard contact (HH% 29, Barrel% 3.2) plays. At +102, this is excellent value for a team with the best pitcher in the game today.
SFG @ COL F5 u5.5 (-102)
Logan Webb is arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now — xERA 2.37, recent ERA 0.39, averaging 7.7 IP/gs with three straight gems (8, 8, 7 IP, 1 ER total). He's historically solid vs COL (1.90 ERA in 3gs) and has a 2.97 ERA in 2 starts at Coors. Even at Coors (APF 115), Webb has the profile to shut down the first half. Feltner's matchup history vs SFG is limited but his recent ERA is 5.66 and he's been shaky (4.1 IP avg in last 2 starts). BUT — SFG's offense (wRC+ 121) is dangerous and could touch up Feltner early. The F5 Under at -102 is a steal: Webb alone should allow 0-1 runs in his half, and even if Feltner allows 2-3, you still get to under 5.5 total fairly easily. The full-game under at 11.5 is hard to trust given Coors and both shaky bullpens (SFG xERA 4.64, COL 4.76). The F5 isolates Webb's dominance and limits bullpen exposure. Webb has gone 8 IP in two of his last three starts — no early hook risk here.
Logan Webb o4.5 Ks (-156)
Webb averages 6.0 K/start in his last 3 outings (7K, 7K, 4K), all against teams with varying K rates. COL K% vs RHP is 19.7% — roughly average, similar to the opponents he's been facing. His season K% is 21.7% and he's going deep (7.7 IP/gs avg). The Outs O/U is 18.5 (-112/-119), confirming the market expects a long outing, giving him plenty of innings to accumulate Ks. Adjusted expectation: ~5.5-6.0 Ks. The line of 4.5 Ks is well below that — this is a clear value spot. The -156 juice is steep and triggers the line warning threshold, but this is the lower of the two K lines available. Webb's elite form and expected deep outing make this worth flagging.
TBR @ HOU
8:15 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Nick Martinez R
xERA4.29 (avg)K%20.3 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)ERA3.71IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs90BB%5.8
HOU vs RHP
wRC+93 (below avg)K%23.7 (avg)HH%33.3 (below avg)
S. Arrighetti R
xERA4.18 (avg)K%31.9 (elite)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA10.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs95BB%8.7
TBR vs RHP
wRC+155 (elite)K%16.7 (above avg)HH%41.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-108-1.5 (+160)O7.5 (+100)HOU-108+1.5 (-192)U7.0 (-106)
Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26vs ARIW5.28536011
Jun 21vs WSNW6.08854333
Jun 15@ LADL5.19665133
Jun 9vs BOSW7.07326033
Jun 3vs DETL4.05819166
S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ DETL3.09375588
Jun 20vs CLEL6.09086066
Jun 14@ KCRL6.010178144
Jun 8@ LAAW6.09574433
Jun 3vs PITW4.08336144
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU6.04.505.010.00.0(1)
at HOU6.04.505.010.00.0(1)
S. Arrighetti
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR
home starts5.75.265.34.31.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.32 (good)ERA 2.682d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
HOU
xERA 2.88 (elite)ERA 2.392d stress Stressed (7.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 2
  • HOU — S. Arrighetti: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • HOU bullpen stressed (7.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
AI Analysis
Both starters are STRUGGLING (Martinez recent ERA 6.71, Arrighetti 6.19) but both bullpens are excellent (TBR xERA 3.32, HOU xERA 2.88). The total at O7.5 (+100) / U7.0 (-106) reflects the tension between bad starters and elite pens. The bullpens should stabilize scoring after early damage — not enough confidence in either direction to bet.
BOS @ LAA
9:38 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jake Bennett L
xERA1.62 (elite)K%26.6 (good)HH%27.3 (elite)Barrel%4.5 (elite)ERA1.53IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs79BB%3.1
LAA vs LHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%28.4 (poor)HH%31.4 (below avg)
Reid Detmers L
xERA3.32 (good)K%20.0 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)Barrel%3.8 (elite)ERA3.38IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs93BB%9.3
BOS vs LHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%21.5 (avg)HH%30.0 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-158-1.5 (+110)O8.5 (-108)LAA+135+1.5 (-132)U8.5 (-112)
Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs NYYW6.18733211
Jun 22@ COLL6.07294000
Jun 17vs TORL5.17953022
Jun 10@ TBRL5.07347144
May 7vs TBRL5.18616244
Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs ATHW5.29984322
Jun 21@ ATHW6.09046455
Jun 16@ ARIW7.09034000
Jun 10vs HOUW7.08991011
Jun 5@ LADL6.09162200
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS
home starts6.71.7810.32.01.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.63 (good)ERA 5.352d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 3.912d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • BOS bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • LAA bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • BOS — Jake Bennett: recent opponents high-K: COL 31%, NYY 29% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • LAA — Reid Detmers: 2026-06-21: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
LAA F5 ML (-140)
Reid Detmers is absolutely dominant right now: recent ERA 0.45 over 3 starts (7.0IP/0ER, 7.0IP/1ER, 6.0IP/0ER), xERA 3.32 (good), 1.78 ERA at home in 3 starts this season. BOS offense wRC+ only 124 vs LHP but Jake Bennett for BOS is STRUGGLING (recent ERA 5.92, avg only 3.3 K/start with K% dropping vs better lineups). Detmers' dominance in the first 5 innings is the primary edge. F5 ML at -140 is at the pricing limit but justified given Detmers' exceptional current form. LAA 4-1 in SP home starts L5.
BOS Team Total u3.5 (+102)
Reid Detmers is as hot as any pitcher in baseball right now: recent ERA 0.45 over his last 3 starts (7 IP shutout, 7 IP 1 ER, 6 IP shutout), averaging 6.0 K/start. His xERA of 3.32 is solid and his home ERA of 1.78 in 3 starts is elite. BOS offense vs LHP is above average (wRC+ 124) but Detmers has been virtually unhittable. BOS team trends in Bennett's recent starts show only 3.0 avg RS (1-4 in last 5 SP starts, 0-2 in last 2 away). The +102 on BOS under 3.5 is plus-money for a team facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball at his home park. Bennett is struggling (recent ERA 5.92) so this is purely a Detmers dominance bet — BOS team total under is the cleanest expression.
MIA @ ATH
9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tyler Phillips R
xERA6.04 (poor)K%12.5 (below avg)HH%54.4 (poor)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA6.23IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs88BB%8.3
ATH vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%28.2 (poor)HH%36.7 (avg)
Jack Perkins R
xERA3.62 (good)K%29.7 (elite)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%7.7 (good)ERA5.40IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs81BB%7.8
MIA vs RHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%18.0 (above avg)HH%37.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-118-1.5 (+130)O11.0 (+102)ATH+105+1.5 (-140)U10.5 (-106)
Tyler Phillips · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28@ STLL7.19716022
Jun 22vs TEXL6.08945322
Jun 16@ PHIL4.07946388
Jun 11vs ARIW5.07052200
Jun 5vs TBRL4.2*8237333
Jack Perkins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ LAAL5.08154122
Jun 21vs LAAL5.07884244
Jun 16vs PITL5.08566233
Jun 10vs MILW4.08945333
Jun 5@ HOUL4.07565255
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jack Perkins
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA
home starts4.76.436.05.02.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 5.312d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
ATH
xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 5.762d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
90°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
  • MIA — Tyler Phillips: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • MIA — Tyler Phillips: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • ATH — Jack Perkins: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-05 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • MIA — Tyler Phillips: 2026-06-16: 8 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • ATH — Jack Perkins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-31 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • ATH — Jack Perkins: 2026-06-21: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
MIA @ ATH o10.5 (-106)
Both starters are genuinely struggling right now: Tyler Phillips has xERA 6.04 (poor), recent ERA 8.00 over 3 starts, HH% 54%, Barrel% 14% — extreme hard contact risk. Jack Perkins has recent ERA 7.62, ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.62 (ERA > xERA gap — bad results are real). MIA offense wRC+ 139 (elite) vs RHP. Hitter-friendly park (APF 108 — flag confirms park boosts offense). Both bullpens are non-factors as primary stoppers. Phillips' 8 ER in 4.0 IP last month is the ceiling for this guy. The total at 10.5 still reflects value given both starters' current trajectories.
MIL @ ARI
9:45 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kyle Harrison L
xERA1.55 (elite)K%30.2 (elite)HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%2.4 (elite)ERA2.08IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs86BB%1.6
ARI vs LHP
wRC+140 (elite)K%16.3 (above avg)HH%33.8 (below avg)
Jose Cabrera R
xERA3.70 (good)K%17.1 (avg)HH%38.7 (avg)Barrel%9.7 (avg)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs71BB%4.9
MIL vs RHP
wRC+126 (above avg)K%24.5 (below avg)HH%43.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-142-1.5 (+118)O9.0 (-112)ARI+130+1.5 (-140)U9.0 (-104)
Kyle Harrison · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs CHCL5.09293122
Jun 20@ ATLL6.18574022
Jun 14vs PHIW6.08033000
Jun 8@ ATHW2.17148288
Jun 2vs SFGW5.2106124211
Jose Cabrera · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ TBRL5.08047244
Jun 21vs MINL5.06233000
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jose Cabrera
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL
home starts5.00.003.03.00.0(1)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 4.462d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
ARI
xERA 5.20 (below avg)ERA 5.272d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 3
  • ARI bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.20 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • ARI — Jose Cabrera: 2026-06-27: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • ARI — Jose Cabrera: recent opponents low-K: MIN 15%, TBR 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
MIL Team Total o4.5 (-122)
Kyle Harrison is in acute struggle mode (recent ERA 6.09 with a disastrous 8-ER outing in his last 3), and while one start was an outlier (2.1 IP/8 ER), his overall form is clearly degraded from his xERA baseline. MIL offense vs RHP is elite (wRC+ 126 L12, HH% 43.9). ARI bullpen is a disqualifying liability (xERA 5.20). Harrison's recent struggles vs Cabrera's mediocre profile (xERA 3.70, avg K%) plus the ARI pen exposure gives MIL a legitimate path to 5+ runs. MIL has averaged 7.8 RS in Harrison's away starts (4-1 record). The team total over 4.5 at -122 captures this offensive edge without dependence on ARI scoring.
SDP @ LAD
10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael King R
xERA5.14 (below avg)K%15.5 (below avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%4.0 (elite)ERA4.02IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%9.9
LAD vs RHP
wRC+134 (elite)K%21.3 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Shohei Ohtani R
xERA3.25 (good)K%23.8 (good)HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%3.8 (elite)ERA4.34IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs94BB%7.5
SDP vs RHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%22.0 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+224+1.5 (-104)O8.5 (-110)LAD-255-1.5 (-115)U8.5 (-104)
Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28vs LADL4.19053444
Jun 22vs ATLW7.09356000
Jun 16@ STLL4.19315333
Jun 10vs CINW6.210637333
Jun 5vs NYML6.09346044
Shohei Ohtani · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ MINW6.08985223
Jun 17vs TBRW6.09157144
Jun 10@ PITL6.210266334
Jun 3@ ARIW6.08962100
May 27vs COLW6.09970411
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD5.53.247.03.53.0(2)
at LAD
Shohei Ohtani
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP3.01.502.02.51.0(2)
home starts6.32.376.73.72.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 4.40 (avg)ERA 7.142d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
LAD
xERA 4.00 (avg)ERA 3.912d stress Stressed (13.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
70°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • SDP bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • LAD bullpen stressed (13.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SDP — Michael King: 2026-06-28: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • LAD — Shohei Ohtani: recent opponents low-K: TBR 17%, MIN 15% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Shohei Ohtani is HOT (recent ERA 1.98, xERA 3.25) and LAD offense is elite (wRC+ 134). But LAD ML at -255 is far beyond our -150 threshold — no bet. SDP +1.5 spread at -104 is a possible value play, but SDP bullpen xERA 4.40 and ERA 7.14 is a disaster, and SDP is averaging only 2.0 RS in recent away starts. Cannot confidently fade Ohtani+LAD offense. Pass.
TOR @ SEA
10:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Dylan Cease R
xERA2.81 (elite)K%36.2 (elite)HH%19.4 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.52IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs108BB%18.8
SEA vs RHP
wRC+80 (below avg)K%27.0 (below avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Luis Castillo R
xERA2.96 (elite)K%17.6 (avg)HH%28.8 (elite)Barrel%5.8 (good)ERA4.02IP/gs7.8 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs79BB%4.4
TOR vs RHP
wRC+90 (below avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+136+1.5 (-145)O7.5 (-115)SEA-155-1.5 (+140)U7.5 (+100)
Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs TEXL4.2107104544
Jun 22vs HOUW5.211083422
Jun 16@ BOSW5.010874400
Jun 9vs PHIW6.093113111
May 24vs PITL4.27684122
Luis Castillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ CLEW6.09144111
Jun 19vs BOSL4.0*6347045
Jun 13@ WSNL5.28447225
Jun 7@ DETL5.210052111
May 31vs ARIW5.0*7132212
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA4.18.785.04.03.0(1)
at SEA4.18.785.04.03.0(1)
Luis Castillo
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.07.204.08.52.0(2)
home starts
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 3.152d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 3.07 (good)ERA 5.122d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
69°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph NNW
APF 91 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 7
  • TOR — Dylan Cease: BB% 19% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • TOR bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SEA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 107 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • TOR — Dylan Cease: 2026-06-27: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • SEA — Luis Castillo: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-19, 2026-05-31 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 91) — park suppresses offense, favor the under
TOR @ SEA u7.0 (-103)
Elite pitching matchup: Dylan Cease xERA 2.81 (elite), recent ERA 1.78 (HOT), averaging 8.7 K/start. Luis Castillo xERA 2.96 (elite), recent ERA 2.60, 7.8 IP/gs workhorse. Both offenses are cold: TOR wRC+ 90 (below avg), SEA wRC+ 80 (below avg). Pitcher-friendly park (APF 91 — flag confirms suppresses offense). SEA bullpen xERA 3.00 (solid). TOR bullpen xERA 3.74 (solid). Cease's last start was 107 pitches (minor concern about early hook), but the bullpen flag says manager likely leaves him in longer due to TOR bullpen being stressed. Note: Cease's bad ERA vs SEA historically (8.78 in 1 start) and bad command (BB% 19%) are risks, but his current form is elite and the park + both cold offenses strongly support the under at just -103.
Dylan Cease Ks o7.5 (-104)
Cease is averaging 8.7 K/start over his last 3 outings (7K, 11K, 8K). K% of 36.2% is exceptional. SEA lineup K% 27.0% vs RHP — above-average strikeout rate, comparable to recent opponents (BOS ~21%, PHI ~22%, PIT ~26%). SEA actually strikes out at a higher rate than most of Cease's recent opponents, which supports the high K line being reachable. Adjusted expectation ~8.5+ Ks. Line of 7.5 at -104 is excellent pricing for a pitcher of this caliber. Outs line at 17.5 (nearly 6 innings) suggests market expects him to pitch deep enough to accumulate. BB% 19% is a concern but elite K% overcomes it. TOR bullpen stressed means manager extends Cease.