AI Picks · 17 Bets · Jul 18
SFG @ SEA u6.5 (+104)
Logan Webb is scorching hot (recent ERA 0.78 over last 3 starts: 7IP/0ER, 8IP/2ER, 8IP/0ER — all quality deep outings). His xERA 4.88 is inflated by one bad outlier start (7 ER in 3 IP on 07-03 per flag), and his recent performance is dramatically better than xERA suggests. T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly (APF 92). SEA offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 77 L12). SFG bullpen xERA is strong (2.58). SEA offense has only averaged 4.4 RS in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts at home. While Woo is struggling recently (recent ERA 6.75), one outlier start (5 ER in 4 IP on 06-24) skews that. SFG offense is average vs RHP (wRC+ 112) but Webb should neutralize SEA. Getting +104 on an under with Webb in this form in a pitcher's park is excellent value.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
DET -1.5 (-110)
Tarik Skubal (xERA 2.01, elite) faces G. Rodriguez (xERA 5.70, poor — recent ERA 6.77, HH% 52%, short outings). Rodriguez's home ERA this season is 9.52 in 3 home starts. LAA offense is hot vs LHP (wRC+ 121) but Rodriguez is the bigger liability here — DET offense, while below avg overall (wRC+ 87 vs RHP), benefits from Rodriguez's extreme run-allowance rate. DET bullpen is elite (xERA 2.47). LAA bullpen is poor (xERA 4.16). Despite Skubal's recent struggles (recent ERA 4.19), his xERA 2.01 indicates true elite quality and he's facing a strikeout-prone LAA lineup. The -1.5 at -110 is exceptional value given the massive quality gap between the two starters, the bullpen disparity, and Rodriguez's home track record.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
Tarik Skubal o8.5 Ks (+107)
Skubal is an elite K pitcher (xERA 2.01, K% 36.5%) averaging 8.7 K/start recently (9K, 9K, 8K). The flag notes recent high-K opponents (NYY 33%, PHI 31%), but LAA vs LHP has a 29.8% K rate — still well above average, so the strikeout environment is favorable. Skubal goes deep (5.3 IP/gs avg, recent 6IP, 6IP, 5.2IP) and should get enough innings. At +107 for Over 8.5, this is positive EV given his recent volume and the LAA lineup's tendency to strikeout. His recent ERA (4.19) is slightly elevated but xERA (2.01) confirms elite underlying skill — the recent ERA spike doesn't indicate a K-rate decline.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
ATH Team Total u5.5 (-128)
ATH offense is historically cold (wRC+ 58 L12 vs RHP, K% 29.1%), facing a WSN team with a decent bullpen situation. Despite Ginn's improved recent ERA (3.68 excl. the 18-ERA blowup), the Athletics offense is simply too weak to consistently score 5+ runs. Their avg RS in Ginn's recent starts is only 3.8, and WSN's bullpen, while shaky, doesn't need to be elite when the offense is this anemic. ATH is 0-10 in last 10 overall. The 5.5 line appears slightly inflated for a team this cold offensively.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
WSN ML (-112)
WSN brings an elite offense (wRC+ 149 L12 vs RHP) against a struggling ATH team that is 0-10 in their last 10 games. ATH's bullpen is historically bad (xERA 5.93). While Littell's recent ERA is elevated (5.40) and there are rest concerns, the matchup is heavily skewed: elite WSN offense vs. a team in freefall with a historically bad bullpen. -112 is a reasonable price for this edge — the line hasn't moved to fully reflect ATH's 0-10 stretch.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
LAA Team Total o3.5 (+124)
G. Rodriguez is a significant liability on the mound for LAA — xERA 5.70 (poor), recent ERA 6.77, and a brutal home ERA of 9.52 over 3 home starts. LAA's offense (wRC+ 121 vs LHP) is above average and faces Skubal who, while elite by xERA (2.01), has been struggling recently (4.19 ERA last 3 starts). The OPPOSITE side of this bet is compelling: LAA is going to need to score because their own starter is a liability, but what we're betting is that LAA's offense can get to 4 runs against a currently-struggling Skubal at +124. DET's bullpen (xERA 2.19) is elite, which is the main risk, but 3.5 is a low enough bar that even 1 Skubal bad inning + some relief hitting gets LAA there.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
MIN @ CHC o9.0 (-108)
Matthew Boyd has a terrible xERA (5.28) despite a modest ERA of 3.63 — the market is underpricing the run risk he represents. MIN is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 132 L12, K% 30.3 — they strike out a lot but hit hard). CHC bullpen is a significant liability (xERA 5.34). MIN has averaged 8.0 RS in Bradley's last 5 starts with a 5-0 team record. CHC has averaged 6.8 RS in Boyd's last 5. Both teams combining for ~14-15 RS/game in these pitcher trends is well above the 9.0 total. Boyd's season ERA << xERA signals market is underestimating run risk. CHC park is neutral (APF 99). The main counter is Taj Bradley being elite (xERA 2.38), but Boyd's xERA gap and the bad CHC bullpen provide multiple over signals.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
Taj Bradley o6.5 Ks (+116)
Bradley has elite K% (37.0%) and averages 7.3 K/start recently (11K, 7K, 4K over last 3 — with the 4K being a shorter 5IP outing). CHC offense has 21.9% K rate vs RHP which is above average for a hitter to strikeout. Bradley's xERA is elite (2.38) and he regularly goes 6+ innings (6.3 IP/gs avg). At +116 for Over 6.5, the line seems set conservatively — Bradley's raw K% and recent Ks vs non-elite opponents (HOU, COL, ARI) suggests 7+ is realistic. CHC's K rate supports the over, and the CHC bullpen being bad (xERA 5.24) means Bradley will be kept in longer to accumulate Ks.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
MIN Team Total o3.5 (-140)
MIN offense vs LHP is elite (wRC+ 132). Matthew Boyd has a poor xERA (5.28) with high barrel% (12.5%) and high HH% (44.6%), meaning MIN's powerful L12 offense should punish him. MIN has averaged 8.0 RS in Bradley's recent starts. The -140 price is steep but MIN consistently scores against vulnerable pitchers.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider MIN ML +122 instead — better price for same underlying edge
NYM Team Total u1.5 (-115)
Jesus Luzardo is an absolute monster right now (xERA 1.11 — elite, recent ERA 1.98, averaging 9.3 K/start over last 3). NYM offense vs LHP is average at best (wRC+ 97 L12). Luzardo has faced NYM 3 times and holds a 4.76 ERA historically, but current form is dramatically better. NYM has scored just 3.3 RS/game away in SP's last 3. The NYM bullpen is historically bad (xERA 5.67) making the full-game total unreliable, so targeting the F5 NYM team total under is the purest expression of Luzardo's dominance without bullpen noise. -115 is reasonable for an elite pitcher in peak form against an average lineup.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
Jesus Luzardo o6.5 Ks (-146)
Luzardo is the most dominant pitcher in the data (xERA 1.11, K% 40.4%, recent ERA 1.98, recent Ks: 6, 13, 9 = avg 9.3 K/start). NYM vs LHP has K% 20.4% which is average — not strikeout-prone, but Luzardo's elite stuff transcends matchup. He goes deep (7.0 IP/gs avg) and has 104-106 PC recently. The -146 price is steep — at the pricing boundary — but the adjusted expectation at 9+ Ks with NYM's average K rate still clears 6.5 comfortably. His K line appears set conservatively vs his actual production.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
Line Warning: Price is steep at -146; only bet if comfortable with the juice. Consider smaller unit size.
STL @ ARI F5 u4.5 (+106)
Pfaadt is elite (xERA 2.42, recent ERA 1.76, 0-1-1.7 BB%) and historically dominates STL (2.21 ERA in 2 starts). STL is cold vs RHP (wRC+ 75 L12). Despite May struggling, ARI offense is also below avg vs RHP (wRC+ 83) and won't face May long. The F5 edge is Pfaadt shutting down a cold STL lineup — Under 4.5 at +106 provides value. May's short outing concern mostly hurts the over once the bullpen enters (ARI bullpen xERA 2.56 is elite), not the F5 under. May's matchup history vs ARI is good (2.21 ERA) so the STL side of the F5 total is manageable. Both offenses are below-average in L12, and Pfaadt is as locked in as any pitcher in baseball right now.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
HOU Team Total u4.5 (-140)
Trevor Rogers is HOT (recent ERA 1.41, last 3: 6.1IP/1ER, 7.0IP/0ER, 6.0IP/2ER) and has previously dominated HOU (1.29 ERA, 7 IP, 9 Ks in 1 gs). HOU is cold vs LHP (wRC+ 57 L12 — extremely poor) and their own starter Arrighetti is a disaster (xERA 7.55, recent ERA 10.80, Barrel% 16, BB% 19). Rogers is the clear pitching edge. However, odds at -140 exceed the -150 threshold — flagging with line_warning.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider BAL F5 ML -110 as a cheaper alternative expressing the same Rogers dominance edge
F5 ML BAL -110 (-110)
Trevor Rogers is in dominant form (recent ERA 1.41 over last 3 starts, averaging 5.7 K/start) facing a HOU lineup that is ice-cold vs LHP (wRC+ 57 L12). Rogers has a proven track record vs HOU (1.29 ERA, 9 Ks in 7 IP). Opposing Arrighetti has a catastrophic xERA 7.55 and recent ERA 10.80 with command issues (BB% 19%). BAL offense (wRC+ 108 vs RHP) is solid and should score early. F5 ML captures Rogers' excellence and BAL's offense attacking Arrighetti without bullpen exposure. -110 is excellent value for such a lopsided F5 edge.
Found at 5:10 AM ET
Brandon Pfaadt u3.5 Ks (+100)
Pfaadt's recent K avg is only 2.0 K/start over his last 3 outings (1K, 2K, 3K) and his overall K% is modest at 16.7%. STL lineup has 23.1% K rate vs RHP which is average, not a great strikeout matchup. The under at +100 offers value — market may be pricing this on his season K% rather than his recent sharp but low-K approach (minimal pitches, quick outs). Under 3.5 at even money with only 2.0 avg recent Ks is solid value.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
BAL @ HOU u9.0 (-115)
Rogers is elite and hot (recent ERA 1.41 vs xERA 3.97 — outperforming hard). Arrighetti is a disaster (xERA 7.55, recent ERA 10.80, ERA 11.77) but the key is BAL offense is only wRC+ 108 and HOU offense vs LHP is wRC+ 57 — so BOTH offenses face tough matchups. Rogers limits HOU; BAL will score some but not a huge number. Both bullpens are strong (BAL xERA 2.55, HOU xERA 2.46). Total at 9.0 seems high given Rogers completely neutralizing the HOU side, and even with Arrighetti struggling, the BAL offense is not explosive. The under is supported by Rogers' dominance and the strong pens.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
MIA @ MIL u8.0 (-110)
Both starters are locked in: Max Meyer (xERA 3.13, recent ERA 1.50, HOT — 7IP/0ER, 5IP/2ER, 6IP/1ER) and Shane Drohan (xERA 3.18, recent ERA 1.89, HOT — 5.2IP/2ER, 4.1IP/0ER, 5IP/1ER). Both are significantly outperforming their xERAs right now. MIL offense vs RHP is only wRC+ 103, MIA offense vs LHP is wRC+ 134 but Drohan has been elite and limiting runs. MIL bullpen (xERA 3.24) is solid. MIA bullpen is a concern (xERA 4.25) but with Meyer going deep (6 IP/gs) he limits the exposure. Three strong under signals align: both starters have recent ERA ≤1.50/1.89, both starters have solid xERAs ≤3.20, and the total at 8.0 seems too high given both aces are on career runs right now.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
PIT @ 
CLE1:10 PM · Progressive FieldRainy, Windy
PIT @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jared Jones R
xERA2.02 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA2.45IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs75BB%5.6
CLE vs RHP
wRC+99 (avg)K%26.7 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Gavin Williams R
xERA2.97 (elite)K%32.4 (elite)HH%41.5 (below avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA3.78IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs89BB%8.5
PIT vs RHP
wRC+142 (elite)K%23.5 (avg)HH%41.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+108+1.5 (-205)O7.5 (-108)CLE-125-1.5 (+184)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+105+0.5 (-148)O3.5 (-146)CLE-128-0.5 (+114)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO3.5 (-111)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)CLEO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UJared Jones5.5 (+125 / +132)Gavin Williams7.5 (+124 / -149)
Jared Jones · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18@ W5.07493111
W5.07493111Jul 8vs 
L6.07780000
L6.07780000Jul 2@ 
W4.07362211
W4.07362211Jun 27vs 
L4.28144134
L4.28144134Jun 21@ 
W3.04531211
W3.04531211Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs L6.084117055
L6.084117055Jul 9@ 
W7.0103113122
W7.0103113122Jul 3vs 
W4.27965233
W4.27965233Jun 28vs 
W5.010366323
W5.010366323Jun 22@ L5.09585122
L5.09585122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jared Jones
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.01.809.03.01.0(1)
at CLE5.01.809.03.01.0(1)
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.07.5011.07.00.0(1)
home starts5.15.927.76.01.7(3)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-1 vs CLE this season (2 games).
- PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 2-3 in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Jared Jones's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 4.2 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 4.2 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 1-1 vs PIT this season (2 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 4.0 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 5.54 (poor)ERA 4.562d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 2.472d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy, Windy
77°F, Overcast, Wind 16 mph NNW
APF 100 — Neutral · Rain possible (41%)
Flags · 7
- PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.54 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- PIT bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CLE bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PIT — Jared Jones: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- WEATHER: rain risk 41% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
- WEATHER: wind: Blowing In 16 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
AI Analysis
Both starters (Montgomery and Allen) have tiny samples (3.0 IP and 4.0 IP respectively over 3 starts each), making it impossible to project performance with any confidence; additionally, 46% rain risk and 20 mph out wind add further uncertainty to the total, and the PIT bullpen xERA 5.54 disqualifies full-game side bets.
MIN @ 
CHC✓2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
MIN @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Taj Bradley R
xERA2.38 (elite)K%37.0 (elite)HH%43.9 (below avg)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA1.89IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs98BB%6.9
CHC vs RHP
wRC+115 (above avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%34.6 (below avg)
Matthew Boyd L
xERA5.28 (poor)K%16.0 (below avg)HH%44.6 (below avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs92BB%4.0
MIN vs LHP
wRC+132 (elite)K%30.3 (poor)HH%50.9 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN—+4.5 (-300)O8.5 (+106)CHC—-4.5 (+280)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+114+0.5 (-132)O4.5 (-128)CHC-135-0.5 (+102)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+130)U2.5 (-166)CHCO4.5 (-111)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTaj Bradley5.5 (-142 / +122)16.5 (-123 / -102)Matthew Boyd5.5 (+126 / +132)16.5 (-112 / -112)
Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18@ L5.09467355
L5.09467355Jul 12vs 
W7.09966222
W7.09966222Jul 7vs W7.0101103011
W7.0101103011Jul 1@ 
W5.097114311
W5.097114311Jun 26vs W7.09973322
W7.09973322Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs W6.09143111
W6.09143111Jul 12@ W6.19236144
W6.19236144Jul 7@ 
W6.09373200
W6.09373200Jun 30vs 
W5.07628033
W5.07628033Jun 25@ 
W4.27644400
W4.27644400SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Taj Bradley
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.09.006.07.03.0(1)
at CHC5.09.006.07.03.0(1)
Matthew Boyd
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN6.01.504.03.01.0(1)
home starts5.73.183.75.00.7(3)
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 5-0 in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 8.0 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 7.4 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 5-0 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 4-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 6.8 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 6.8 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 2.86 (elite)ERA 2.252d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 5.24 (below avg)ERA 6.092d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
85°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 13 mph NW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CHC bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.24 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
MIN @ CHC o9.0 (-108)
Matthew Boyd has a terrible xERA (5.28) despite a modest ERA of 3.63 — the market is underpricing the run risk he represents. MIN is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 132 L12, K% 30.3 — they strike out a lot but hit hard). CHC bullpen is a significant liability (xERA 5.34). MIN has averaged 8.0 RS in Bradley's last 5 starts with a 5-0 team record. CHC has averaged 6.8 RS in Boyd's last 5. Both teams combining for ~14-15 RS/game in these pitcher trends is well above the 9.0 total. Boyd's season ERA << xERA signals market is underestimating run risk. CHC park is neutral (APF 99). The main counter is Taj Bradley being elite (xERA 2.38), but Boyd's xERA gap and the bad CHC bullpen provide multiple over signals.
Taj Bradley o6.5 Ks (+116)
Bradley has elite K% (37.0%) and averages 7.3 K/start recently (11K, 7K, 4K over last 3 — with the 4K being a shorter 5IP outing). CHC offense has 21.9% K rate vs RHP which is above average for a hitter to strikeout. Bradley's xERA is elite (2.38) and he regularly goes 6+ innings (6.3 IP/gs avg). At +116 for Over 6.5, the line seems set conservatively — Bradley's raw K% and recent Ks vs non-elite opponents (HOU, COL, ARI) suggests 7+ is realistic. CHC's K rate supports the over, and the CHC bullpen being bad (xERA 5.24) means Bradley will be kept in longer to accumulate Ks.
MIN Team Total o3.5 (-140)
MIN offense vs LHP is elite (wRC+ 132). Matthew Boyd has a poor xERA (5.28) with high barrel% (12.5%) and high HH% (44.6%), meaning MIN's powerful L12 offense should punish him. MIN has averaged 8.0 RS in Bradley's recent starts. The -140 price is steep but MIN consistently scores against vulnerable pitchers.
NYM @ PHI✓3:05 PM · Citizens Bank ParkRainy
NYM @ PHI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Sean Manaea L
xERA4.29 (avg)K%19.2 (avg)HH%42.3 (below avg)Barrel%11.5 (below avg)ERA5.09IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs98BB%5.5
PHI vs LHP
wRC+84 (below avg)K%31.2 (poor)HH%29.2 (poor)
Jesus Luzardo L
xERA1.11 (elite)K%40.4 (elite)HH%40.7 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA0.64IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs94BB%3.9
NYM vs LHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+800+3.5 (-119)O9.5 (+115)PHI-1500-3.5 (+104)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+154+0.5 (-108)O4.5 (-113)PHI-176-0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYMO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (-104)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)PHIO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/USean Manaea5.5 (+124 / -146)Jesus Luzardo6.5 (-136 / +119)
Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18@ L4.08965233
L4.08965233Jul 9vs 
W7.09766123
W7.09766123Jul 4@ L5.010845136
L5.010845136Jun 29@ 
L5.29043222
L5.29043222Jun 24vs L3.08646234
L3.08646234Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs W5.09072211
W5.09072211Jul 9@ W7.096112200
W7.096112200Jul 4@ W6.09594011
W6.09594011Jun 28@ W5.09664311
W5.09664311Jun 23@ 
W6.2104135315
W6.2104135315SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Manaea
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI4.75.745.35.31.3(3)
at PHI4.75.745.35.31.3(3)
Jesus Luzardo
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM6.03.007.73.71.7(3)
home starts6.04.006.04.72.0(3)
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 3-4 vs PHI this season (7 games).
- NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 2-3 in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-2 in Sean Manaea's last 3 away starts.
- NYM average 4.4 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 3.3 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 3 away starts.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 4-3 vs NYM this season (7 games).
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 5-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.
- PHI average 6.8 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 6.2 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 5.67 (poor)ERA 9.132d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
PHI
xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 7.652d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
87°F, Moderate Drizzle, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (10%)
Flags · 2
- NYM bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.67 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- WEATHER: rain risk 10% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
NYM Team Total u1.5 (-115)
Jesus Luzardo is an absolute monster right now (xERA 1.11 — elite, recent ERA 1.98, averaging 9.3 K/start over last 3). NYM offense vs LHP is average at best (wRC+ 97 L12). Luzardo has faced NYM 3 times and holds a 4.76 ERA historically, but current form is dramatically better. NYM has scored just 3.3 RS/game away in SP's last 3. The NYM bullpen is historically bad (xERA 5.67) making the full-game total unreliable, so targeting the F5 NYM team total under is the purest expression of Luzardo's dominance without bullpen noise. -115 is reasonable for an elite pitcher in peak form against an average lineup.
Jesus Luzardo o6.5 Ks (-146)
Luzardo is the most dominant pitcher in the data (xERA 1.11, K% 40.4%, recent ERA 1.98, recent Ks: 6, 13, 9 = avg 9.3 K/start). NYM vs LHP has K% 20.4% which is average — not strikeout-prone, but Luzardo's elite stuff transcends matchup. He goes deep (7.0 IP/gs avg) and has 104-106 PC recently. The -146 price is steep — at the pricing boundary — but the adjusted expectation at 9+ Ks with NYM's average K rate still clears 6.5 comfortably. His K line appears set conservatively vs his actual production.
CHW @ TOR3:07 PM · Rogers CentreRainy
CHW @ TORMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Davis Martin R
xERA5.89 (poor)K%8.5 (poor)HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA4.97IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs65BB%13.6
TOR vs RHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%17.8 (above avg)HH%31.0 (below avg)
Shane Bieber R
xERA7.41 (poor)K%16.4 (below avg)HH%54.4 (poor)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA7.07IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs81BB%14.9
CHW vs RHP
wRC+116 (above avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%43.5 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+112+1.5 (-235)O5.5 (+108)TOR-142-1.5 (+188)U5.5 (-132)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW-120-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-122)TOR-104+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)TORO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+112)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDavis Martin3.5 (-132 / +126)—Shane Bieber4.5 (-142 / +119)15.5 (-120 / -120)
Davis Martin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18@ L3.13821000
L3.13821000Jul 8vs 
L4.08426255
L4.08426255Jul 2@ L3.17306522
L3.17306522Jun 27vs W5.18734100
W5.18734100Jun 21@ 
L6.07745311
L6.07745311Shane Bieber · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs L4.05842100
L4.05842100Jul 10@ W4.29746322
W4.29746322Jul 4@ L4.08936377
L4.08936377Jun 28vs 
L5.19245422
L5.19245422Jun 23vs L3.27529044
L3.27529044SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Davis Martin
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR4.50.004.02.51.0(2)
at TOR3.10.002.01.00.0(1)
Shane Bieber
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW4.00.004.02.01.0(1)
home starts4.14.393.35.31.7(3)
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 4-1 vs TOR this season (5 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW have won 4 straight.
- CHW are 1-4 in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-4 in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 2.6 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 4.8 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 1-4 vs CHW this season (5 games).
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 1-3 in Shane Bieber's last 4 starts.
- TOR are 0-2 in Shane Bieber's last 2 home starts.
- TOR average 3.5 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 4 starts.
- TOR average 4.5 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.25 (good)ERA 2.632d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 4.962d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
81°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 9 mph W
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (47%)
Flags · 9
- CHW — Davis Martin: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TOR — Shane Bieber: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TOR — Shane Bieber: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- CHW bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TOR bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW — Davis Martin: 2026-07-08: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHW — Davis Martin: recent opponents high-K: CLE 27%, BOS 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TOR — Shane Bieber: 2026-07-04: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: rain risk 47% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
CIN @ COL3:10 PM · Coors FieldHot
CIN @ COLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Rhett Lowder R
xERA4.16 (avg)K%9.4 (poor)HH%26.1 (elite)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA1.29IP/gs7.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs38BB%15.6
COL vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%17.1 (above avg)HH%35.1 (avg)
Tomoyuki Sugano R
xERA4.14 (avg)K%12.7 (below avg)HH%37.3 (avg)Barrel%8.5 (avg)ERA9.00IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs79BB%4.2
CIN vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%28.0 (poor)HH%29.9 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+2200+5.5 (+114)O14.5 (+108)COL-8000-6.5 (+118)U13.5 (-101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN-115-0.5 (+104)O6.5 (-138)COL-104+0.5 (-135)U6.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCINO6.5 (+100)U6.5 (-120)O3.5 (+110)U3.5 (-140)COLO6.5 (+110)U5.5 (+104)O3.5 (+105)U3.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/URhett Lowder3.5 (+135 / -165)Tomoyuki Sugano3.5 (+127 / +116)
Rhett Lowder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18@ L2.148211088
L2.148211088Jul 12vs L2.0*3010200
L2.0*3010200Jul 8vs W2.0*3623011
W2.0*3623011Jul 4vs L3.0*4002300
L3.0*4002300Jun 30@ 
L4.282811166
L4.282811166Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs W5.16835022
W5.16835022Jun 26@ L5.08528177
L5.08528177Jun 20vs W6.08554011
W6.08554011Jun 14@ 
W5.09728268
W5.09728268Jun 9vs W5.09336233
W5.09336233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Rhett Lowder
IPERAKHBB
vs COL2.134.292.011.00.0(1)
at COL2.134.292.011.00.0(1)
Tomoyuki Sugano
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.11.762.54.51.5(2)
home starts5.43.353.75.00.7(3)
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 3-1 vs COL this season (4 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 1-4 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 0-5 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 2.4 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 3.0 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 1-3 vs CIN this season (4 games).
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 9.6 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL average 4.6 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 2.07 (elite)ERA 2.902d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 4.06 (avg)ERA 2.812d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph NE
APF 116 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: small sample (7.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- CIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: 18 days since last start (2026-06-30) — may not be fully stretched out
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-12, 2026-07-08 — may affect pitch count or availability
- COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: 22 days since last start (2026-06-26) — may not be fully stretched out
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 116) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
STL @ 
ARI✓4:10 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
STL @ ARI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Dustin May R
xERA3.51 (good)K%25.5 (good)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA6.75IP/gs3.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs64BB%12.8
ARI vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Brandon Pfaadt R
xERA2.42 (elite)K%16.7 (below avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA1.72IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs56BB%1.7
STL vs RHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%23.1 (avg)HH%40.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+182+1.5 (-138)O7.5 (+104)ARI-208-1.5 (+118)U7.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-110-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-138)ARI-108+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)ARIO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDustin May3.5 (-122 / +118)15.5 (+100 / -125)Brandon Pfaadt3.5 (-130 / +106)15.5 (+106 / -140)
Dustin May · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18@ L1.22723111
L1.22723111Jul 12vs L4.08442422
L4.08442422Jul 6vs L4.28174000
L4.28174000Jul 2@ W0.23415255
W0.23415255Jun 21@ W2.04426166
W2.04426166Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs L2.01911000
L2.01911000Jul 11@ 
W5.17726022
W5.17726022Jul 6@ W5.07264000
W5.07264000Jun 30vs 
W5.16623111
W5.16623111Jun 3vs L1.0*3713222
L1.0*3713222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dustin May
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI4.52.695.05.01.0(3)
at ARI3.73.653.55.01.0(2)
Brandon Pfaadt
IPERAKHBB
vs STL4.71.904.03.30.3(3)
home starts3.51.271.52.00.5(2)
Trends · STL
- STL are 2-3 vs ARI this season (5 games).
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- STL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 6.4 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- STL average 6.6 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 3-2 vs STL this season (5 games).
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-0 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 home starts.
- ARI average 6.8 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 7.0 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 3.962d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 2.35 (elite)ERA 2.332d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 6
- STL — Dustin May: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- STL — Dustin May: avg 3.1 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- ARI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL — Dustin May: 2026-07-02: 5 ER in 0.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-03, 2026-05-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
STL @ ARI F5 u4.5 (+106)
Pfaadt is elite (xERA 2.42, recent ERA 1.76, 0-1-1.7 BB%) and historically dominates STL (2.21 ERA in 2 starts). STL is cold vs RHP (wRC+ 75 L12). Despite May struggling, ARI offense is also below avg vs RHP (wRC+ 83) and won't face May long. The F5 edge is Pfaadt shutting down a cold STL lineup — Under 4.5 at +106 provides value. May's short outing concern mostly hurts the over once the bullpen enters (ARI bullpen xERA 2.56 is elite), not the F5 under. May's matchup history vs ARI is good (2.21 ERA) so the STL side of the F5 total is manageable. Both offenses are below-average in L12, and Pfaadt is as locked in as any pitcher in baseball right now.
Brandon Pfaadt u3.5 Ks (+100)
Pfaadt's recent K avg is only 2.0 K/start over his last 3 outings (1K, 2K, 3K) and his overall K% is modest at 16.7%. STL lineup has 23.1% K rate vs RHP which is average, not a great strikeout matchup. The under at +100 offers value — market may be pricing this on his season K% rather than his recent sharp but low-K approach (minimal pitches, quick outs). Under 3.5 at even money with only 2.0 avg recent Ks is solid value.
TEX @ ATL4:10 PM · Truist ParkHot
TEX @ ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA3.07 (good)K%28.1 (elite)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA8.36IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs57BB%4.7
ATL vs LHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%21.2 (avg)HH%46.8 (elite)
Owen Murphy R
xERA2.64 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)HH%77.8 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA2.25IP/gs4.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs31BB%0.0
TEX vs RHP
wRC+88 (below avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+220+1.5 (+102)O10.5 (-117)ATL-260-1.5 (-117)U10.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-114-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-135)ATL-110+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)ATLO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UMacKenzie Gore5.5 (+118 / -136)Owen Murphy—
MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18@ W1.01712000
W1.01712000Jul 12vs W4.06542111
W4.06542111Jul 8vs L5.09079177
L5.09079177Jul 1@ L5.09277155
L5.09277155Jun 25@ W7.09854133
W7.09854133Owen Murphy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs L2.02711211
L2.02711211Jul 11@ L3.0*4730000
L3.0*4730000Jul 6vs L1.0*2011012
L1.0*2011012SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL2.74.443.02.72.3(3)
at ATL1.512.002.03.02.0(2)
Owen Murphy
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX2.04.501.01.02.0(1)
home starts2.04.501.01.02.0(1)
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 4.2 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.0 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 4.72 (below avg)ERA 6.752d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.87 (avg)ERA 5.332d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 8 mph WNW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
- TEX — MacKenzie Gore: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TEX — MacKenzie Gore: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ATL — Owen Murphy: small sample (4.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- ATL — Owen Murphy: HH% 78% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TEX — MacKenzie Gore: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TEX — MacKenzie Gore: recent opponents high-K: CLE 29%, LAA 30% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- ATL — Owen Murphy: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-11, 2026-07-06 — may affect pitch count or availability
BAL @ HOU✓4:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
BAL @ HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Trevor Rogers L
xERA3.97 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%40.4 (below avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA1.04IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs69BB%10.1
HOU vs LHP
wRC+57 (poor)K%24.0 (below avg)HH%26.9 (poor)
S. Arrighetti R
xERA7.55 (poor)K%20.6 (avg)HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%15.8 (poor)ERA11.77IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs65BB%19.1
BAL vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%21.8 (avg)HH%43.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-109-1.5 (+164)O6.5 (-107)HOU-113-1.5 (+210)U6.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-110-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-130)HOU-112+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBALO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)HOUO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrevor Rogers4.5 (+104 / -114)17.5 (-119 / -112)S. Arrighetti5.5 (-145 / +115)15.5 (+130 / -166)
Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18@ L2.02423000
L2.02423000Jul 9vs W6.08945211
W6.08945211Jul 3@ W5.09342500
W5.09342500Jun 26vs W6.18775011
W6.18775011Jun 20@ W7.09661200
W7.09661200S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs L2.02940100
L2.02940100Jul 8@ L4.09427688
L4.09427688Jul 3vs 
L6.07342111
L6.07342111Jun 26@ L3.09375588
L3.09375588Jun 20vs L6.09086066
L6.09086066SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Trevor Rogers
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU4.51.005.54.01.5(2)
at HOU2.00.002.03.00.0(1)
S. Arrighetti
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL3.62.503.03.00.5(2)
home starts4.74.505.32.70.7(3)
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 3-2 vs HOU this season (5 games).
- BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL have won 5 straight.
- BAL are 4-1 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 2.8 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 2-3 vs BAL this season (5 games).
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 0-5 in S. Arrighetti's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in S. Arrighetti's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 0.8 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 4.4 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.55 (elite)ERA 2.182d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 2.46 (elite)ERA 3.672d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- HOU — S. Arrighetti: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- HOU — S. Arrighetti: BB% 19% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- BAL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
HOU Team Total u4.5 (-140)
Trevor Rogers is HOT (recent ERA 1.41, last 3: 6.1IP/1ER, 7.0IP/0ER, 6.0IP/2ER) and has previously dominated HOU (1.29 ERA, 7 IP, 9 Ks in 1 gs). HOU is cold vs LHP (wRC+ 57 L12 — extremely poor) and their own starter Arrighetti is a disaster (xERA 7.55, recent ERA 10.80, Barrel% 16, BB% 19). Rogers is the clear pitching edge. However, odds at -140 exceed the -150 threshold — flagging with line_warning.
F5 ML BAL -110 (-110)
Trevor Rogers is in dominant form (recent ERA 1.41 over last 3 starts, averaging 5.7 K/start) facing a HOU lineup that is ice-cold vs LHP (wRC+ 57 L12). Rogers has a proven track record vs HOU (1.29 ERA, 9 Ks in 7 IP). Opposing Arrighetti has a catastrophic xERA 7.55 and recent ERA 10.80 with command issues (BB% 19%). BAL offense (wRC+ 108 vs RHP) is solid and should score early. F5 ML captures Rogers' excellence and BAL's offense attacking Arrighetti without bullpen exposure. -110 is excellent value for such a lopsided F5 edge.
BAL @ HOU u9.0 (-115)
Rogers is elite and hot (recent ERA 1.41 vs xERA 3.97 — outperforming hard). Arrighetti is a disaster (xERA 7.55, recent ERA 10.80, ERA 11.77) but the key is BAL offense is only wRC+ 108 and HOU offense vs LHP is wRC+ 57 — so BOTH offenses face tough matchups. Rogers limits HOU; BAL will score some but not a huge number. Both bullpens are strong (BAL xERA 2.55, HOU xERA 2.46). Total at 9.0 seems high given Rogers completely neutralizing the HOU side, and even with Arrighetti struggling, the BAL offense is not explosive. The under is supported by Rogers' dominance and the strong pens.
TBR @ BOS4:10 PM · Fenway ParkRainy
TBR @ BOSMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ian Seymour L
xERA3.55 (good)K%36.5 (elite)HH%37.1 (avg)Barrel%8.6 (avg)ERA5.52IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs85BB%6.3
BOS vs LHP
wRC+133 (elite)K%18.3 (above avg)HH%28.0 (poor)
Patrick Sandoval L
xERA3.29 (good)K%26.3 (good)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA2.08IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs65BB%5.3
TBR vs LHP
wRC+101 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%30.2 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR+100-1.5 (+155)O9.5 (-110)BOS-110+1.5 (-176)U9.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-104+0.5 (-144)O5.5 (+100)BOS-120-0.5 (+110)U5.5 (-130)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTBRO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)BOSO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UIan Seymour4.5 (-146 / +135)Patrick Sandoval3.5 (-105 / -115)
Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs L3.17836356
L3.17836356Jul 7vs 
W5.194125033
W5.194125033Jul 2@ W6.08383111
W6.08383111Jun 25vs W6.2*9070100
W6.2*9070100Jun 20vs L5.08147033
L5.08147033Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 9@ W4.16555111
W4.16555111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ian Seymour
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS4.02.255.01.01.0(1)
at BOS—
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 5-4 vs BOS this season (9 games).
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 3-2 in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-0 in Ian Seymour's last 1 away starts.
- TBR average 3.8 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 5.0 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 1 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 4-5 vs TBR this season (9 games).
- BOS are 10-0 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS have won 11 straight.
- BOS are 1-0 in Patrick Sandoval's last 1 starts.
- BOS average 2.0 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 1 starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.42 (good)ERA 3.772d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
BOS
xERA 2.44 (elite)ERA 1.602d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Rainy
75°F, Dense Drizzle, Wind 13 mph S
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (51%)
Flags · 10
- BOS — Patrick Sandoval: small sample (4.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- BOS — Patrick Sandoval: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- BOS bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-25, 2026-06-14 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TBR — Ian Seymour: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TBR — Ian Seymour: 2026-07-12: 5 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TBR — Ian Seymour: low-K outing 2026-07-12 (3 Ks vs avg 7.7) — stuff was flat that day
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent opponents high-K: NYY 33%, SEA 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- BOS — Patrick Sandoval: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- WEATHER: rain risk 51% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
AI Analysis
51% rain risk at Fenway is a disqualifying factor — weather alone eliminates this game regardless of the pitching matchup.
SDP @ KCR4:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
SDP @ KCRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Griffin Canning R
xERA2.87 (elite)K%21.4 (avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%2.6 (elite)ERA3.46IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs55BB%7.1
KCR vs RHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%42.8 (above avg)
Randy Dobnak R
xERA4.40 (avg)K%9.8 (poor)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA1.86IP/gs9.2 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs66BB%9.8
SDP vs RHP
wRC+106 (avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%34.9 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+238+1.5 (+106)O10.5 (-116)KCR-295-2.5 (+101)U10.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-110-0.5 (+110)O6.5 (+108)KCR-106+0.5 (-144)U6.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USDPO5.5 (-106)U5.5 (-120)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)KCRO5.5 (+110)U4.5 (+104)O2.5 (-140)U2.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UGriffin Canning3.5 (-137 / +107)Randy Dobnak—
Griffin Canning · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18@ L1.01812022
L1.01812022Jul 9vs L4.27457022
L4.27457022Jul 4@ L4.0*7342211
L4.0*7342211Jun 29@ L4.17535222
L4.17535222Jun 23vs W0.2*4024144
W0.2*4024144Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs W1.23821200
W1.23821200Jul 8@ L5.2*9523300
L5.2*9523300Jul 2vs L4.0*6426122
L4.0*6426122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Griffin Canning
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR1.018.001.02.00.0(1)
at KCR1.018.001.02.00.0(1)
Randy Dobnak
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP1.20.002.01.02.0(1)
home starts1.20.002.01.02.0(1)
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 1-4 in Griffin Canning's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 0-4 in Griffin Canning's last 4 away starts.
- SDP average 2.2 runs/game in Griffin Canning's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 2.0 runs/game in Griffin Canning's last 4 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 3.02 (good)ERA 4.802d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 5.01 (below avg)ERA 4.692d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
90°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.01 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- SDP bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- KCR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP — Griffin Canning: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-04, 2026-06-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SDP — Griffin Canning: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- SDP — Griffin Canning: 2026-06-12: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-08, 2026-07-02 — may affect pitch count or availability
MIA @ MIL✓4:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
MIA @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Max Meyer R
xERA3.13 (good)K%20.0 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)ERA1.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs59BB%5.7
MIL vs RHP
wRC+103 (avg)K%21.6 (avg)HH%43.7 (above avg)
Shane Drohan L
xERA3.18 (good)K%20.3 (avg)HH%43.6 (below avg)Barrel%12.7 (below avg)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs67BB%4.0
MIA vs LHP
wRC+134 (elite)K%17.9 (above avg)HH%33.8 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-295-2.5 (-104)O9.5 (-114)MIL+240+2.5 (-122)U9.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-102+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+106)MIL-122-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)MILO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+114)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMax Meyer5.5 (-117 / -108)15.5 (-120 / -103)Shane Drohan4.5 (-122 / +100)16.5 (-119 / -111)
Max Meyer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18@ W1.01820100
W1.01820100Jul 7vs W5.08044222
W5.08044222Jul 1@ L6.07856015
L6.07856015Jun 26@ W7.08952200
W7.08952200Jun 20vs W5.09877222
W5.09877222Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs L1.23235133
L1.23235133Jul 11@ L6.18365033
L6.18365033Jul 6@ W6.08526213
W6.08526213Jul 1vs W5.27876122
W5.27876122Jun 24@ W4.19855300
W4.19855300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Max Meyer
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL1.00.002.00.01.0(1)
at MIL1.00.002.00.01.0(1)
Shane Drohan
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA1.222.503.05.01.0(1)
home starts3.84.744.34.71.7(3)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 1-3 vs MIL this season (4 games).
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA have lost 4 straight.
- MIA are 4-1 in Max Meyer's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-2 in Max Meyer's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 4.6 runs/game in Max Meyer's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 4.4 runs/game in Max Meyer's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 3-1 vs MIA this season (4 games).
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 3-2 in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-2 in Shane Drohan's last 4 home starts.
- MIL average 3.6 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 7.5 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 4 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 4.25 (avg)ERA 5.762d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 4.002d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
83°F, Clear, Wind 13 mph NE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- MIL — Shane Drohan: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- MIL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIA — Max Meyer: 11 days since last start (2026-07-07) — may not be fully stretched out
- MIL — Shane Drohan: low-K outing 2026-07-06 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
MIA @ MIL u8.0 (-110)
Both starters are locked in: Max Meyer (xERA 3.13, recent ERA 1.50, HOT — 7IP/0ER, 5IP/2ER, 6IP/1ER) and Shane Drohan (xERA 3.18, recent ERA 1.89, HOT — 5.2IP/2ER, 4.1IP/0ER, 5IP/1ER). Both are significantly outperforming their xERAs right now. MIL offense vs RHP is only wRC+ 103, MIA offense vs LHP is wRC+ 134 but Drohan has been elite and limiting runs. MIL bullpen (xERA 3.24) is solid. MIA bullpen is a concern (xERA 4.25) but with Meyer going deep (6 IP/gs) he limits the exposure. Three strong under signals align: both starters have recent ERA ≤1.50/1.89, both starters have solid xERAs ≤3.20, and the total at 8.0 seems too high given both aces are on career runs right now.
PIT @ CLE7:10 PM · Progressive FieldHot, Windy
PIT @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mason Montgomery L
xERA1.26 (elite)K%45.5 (elite)HH%20.0 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA0.00IP/gs3.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs20BB%9.1
CLE vs LHP
wRC+100 (avg)K%28.8 (poor)HH%33.0 (below avg)
Logan Allen L
xERA3.57 (good)K%36.8 (elite)HH%54.5 (poor)Barrel%18.2 (poor)ERA0.00IP/gs4.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs83BB%5.3
PIT vs LHP
wRC+145 (elite)K%22.0 (avg)HH%33.3 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT-104-1.5 (+158)O8.5 (-105)CLE-112+1.5 (-190)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-110+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (-106)CLE-110-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO4.5 (+110)U3.5 (+110)O2.5 (+130)U2.5 (-166)CLEO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UMason Montgomery—Logan Allen5.5 (+123 / +125)
Mason Montgomery · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11vs W1.0*2720100
W1.0*2720100Jul 8vs L1.0*1621000
L1.0*1621000Jul 5@ W1.0*1610000
W1.0*1610000Jul 4@ W0.1*410000
W0.1*410000Jul 2@ W1.0*1430000
W1.0*1430000Logan Allen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 25vs L4.0*8375102
L4.0*8375102SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Allen
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.21.735.05.01.0(1)
home starts4.54.953.05.51.0(2)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-1 vs CLE this season (2 games).
- PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 2-2 in Mason Montgomery's last 4 starts.
- PIT are 0-1 in Mason Montgomery's last 1 away starts.
- PIT average 3.2 runs/game in Mason Montgomery's last 4 starts.
- PIT average 2.0 runs/game in Mason Montgomery's last 1 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 1-1 vs PIT this season (2 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 5.54 (poor)ERA 4.562d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 2.472d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot, Windy
94°F, Wind 20 mph
Flags · 13
- PIT — Mason Montgomery: small sample (3.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- CLE — Logan Allen: small sample (4.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- CLE — Logan Allen: HH% 55% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CLE — Logan Allen: Barrel% 18% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.54 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- PIT bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CLE bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PIT — Mason Montgomery: 41 days since last start (2026-06-07) — may not be fully stretched out
- PIT — Mason Montgomery: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-11, 2026-07-08 — may affect pitch count or availability
- PIT — Mason Montgomery: last start: 25 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CLE — Logan Allen: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-25 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WEATHER: rain chance 46% — monitor for delays
- WEATHER: wind: Out 20 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
AI Analysis
Both starters (Montgomery and Allen) have tiny samples (3.0 IP and 4.0 IP respectively over 3 starts each), making it impossible to project performance with any confidence; additionally, 46% rain risk and 20 mph out wind add further uncertainty to the total, and the PIT bullpen xERA 5.54 disqualifies full-game side bets.
LAD @ NYY8:08 PM · Yankee StadiumRainy
LAD @ NYYMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Emmet Sheehan R
xERA2.87 (elite)K%28.3 (elite)HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%5.6 (good)ERA2.45IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs94BB%10.0
NYY vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%45.2 (elite)
Ryan Weathers L
xERA3.23 (good)K%26.8 (good)HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA5.73IP/gs3.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs78BB%5.4
LAD vs LHP
wRC+149 (elite)K%17.2 (above avg)HH%44.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-105-1.5 (+153)O9.0 (+100)NYY-110+1.5 (-180)U9.0 (-119)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-108+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-138)NYY-116-0.5 (+118)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULADO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)NYYO4.5 (+110)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UEmmet Sheehan5.5 (-118 / -104)Ryan Weathers5.5 (+102 / -125)
Emmet Sheehan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs L5.110173123
L5.110173123Jul 5vs L4.19653311
L4.19653311Jun 28@ W5.08452211
W5.08452211Jun 21vs L3.18248366
L3.18248366Jun 14@ L5.08584133
L5.08584133Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 10@ W5.19166011
W5.19166011Jul 5vs L4.08866244
L4.08866244Jun 29vs L1.25537125
L1.25537125Jun 24@ W6.09766212
W6.09766212Jun 18vs L6.18883111
L6.18883111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Weathers
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD—
home starts3.85.585.75.31.3(3)
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 1-4 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-3 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 2.8 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-4 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 2.8 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 2.0 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 3.48 (good)ERA 4.142d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 1.932d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
75°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (53%)
Flags · 4
- NYY — Ryan Weathers: avg 3.7 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- LAD — Emmet Sheehan: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- NYY — Ryan Weathers: recent opponents high-K: MIN 30%, WSN 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: rain risk 53% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
AI Analysis
53% rain risk is a disqualifying factor; additionally, Sheehan's recent ERA (6.87) is 4.0 runs above his xERA (2.87) — a disqualifying acute struggle signal — and Weathers' extremely short 3.7 IP/gs average makes the game highly bullpen-dependent.
SFG @ SEA✓8:08 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
SFG @ SEA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Logan Webb R
xERA4.88 (below avg)K%13.3 (below avg)HH%32.2 (good)Barrel%5.1 (good)ERA6.35IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs91BB%8.0
SEA vs RHP
wRC+77 (poor)K%24.9 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Bryan Woo R
xERA4.15 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)Barrel%5.8 (good)ERA5.87IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs93BB%5.7
SFG vs RHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%19.7 (above avg)HH%36.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+134+1.5 (-172)O7.0 (-118)SEA-155-1.5 (+150)U7.0 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+124+0.5 (-132)O3.5 (-128)SEA-148-0.5 (+102)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (+116)U3.5 (-140)O1.5 (-105)U1.5 (-125)SEAO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Webb5.5 (+102 / -128)18.5 (+122 / -135)Bryan Woo5.5 (-125 / +103)18.5 (+151 / +146)
Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8vs L7.010625255
L7.010625255Jul 3@ L3.076211277
L3.076211277Jun 27vs W7.09261200
W7.09261200Jun 21@ L8.010355122
L8.010355122Jun 14vs W8.010677001
W8.010677001Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7@ L5.08759134
L5.08759134Jun 30vs W6.110654122
W6.110654122Jun 24@ L4.08646255
L4.08646255Jun 18vs W7.08993100
W7.08993100Jun 11@ L5.08247177
L5.08247177SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.06.006.05.01.0(1)
home starts6.70.907.73.00.7(3)
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 2-3 in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 2.8 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 2.6 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 2-3 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 5-0 in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 4.4 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.0 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 2.27 (elite)ERA 5.732d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 4.31 (avg)ERA 3.532d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
71°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NW
APF 91 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 7
- SFG bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- SFG — Logan Webb: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- SFG — Logan Webb: 2026-07-03: 7 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 21) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SFG — Logan Webb: recent opponents low-K: COL 17%, TOR 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- SEA — Bryan Woo: 11 days since last start (2026-07-07) — may not be fully stretched out
- SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-06-24: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 91) — park suppresses offense, favor the under
SFG @ SEA u6.5 (+104)
Logan Webb is scorching hot (recent ERA 0.78 over last 3 starts: 7IP/0ER, 8IP/2ER, 8IP/0ER — all quality deep outings). His xERA 4.88 is inflated by one bad outlier start (7 ER in 3 IP on 07-03 per flag), and his recent performance is dramatically better than xERA suggests. T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly (APF 92). SEA offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 77 L12). SFG bullpen xERA is strong (2.58). SEA offense has only averaged 4.4 RS in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts at home. While Woo is struggling recently (recent ERA 6.75), one outlier start (5 ER in 4 IP on 06-24) skews that. SFG offense is average vs RHP (wRC+ 112) but Webb should neutralize SEA. Getting +104 on an under with Webb in this form in a pitcher's park is excellent value.
WSN @ ATH✓10:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
WSN @ ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zack Littell R
xERA4.54 (below avg)K%19.6 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%11.9 (below avg)ERA2.40IP/gs15.0 IP/gsH/gs12.0PC/gs79BB%5.4
ATH vs RHP
wRC+58 (poor)K%29.1 (poor)HH%44.1 (above avg)
J.T. Ginn R
xERA4.11 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%25.6 (elite)Barrel%10.3 (avg)ERA6.91IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs84BB%15.2
WSN vs RHP
wRC+149 (elite)K%15.9 (elite)HH%42.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN-112-1.5 (+130)O11.5 (-105)ATH-103+1.5 (-154)U11.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN-108+0.5 (-144)O6.5 (+106)ATH+100-0.5 (+110)U6.5 (-138)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO5.5 (-122)U5.5 (+100)O2.5 (-154)U2.5 (+120)ATHO5.5 (+100)U5.5 (-128)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZack Littell2.5 (-165 / +129)—J.T. Ginn4.5 (+118 / -134)15.5 (+150 / -149)
Zack Littell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 10vs L4.0*6955011
L4.0*6955011Jul 4vs L6.0*8734111
L6.0*8734111Jun 28@ W5.08233222
W5.08233222Jun 23vs L4.0*5955022
L4.0*5955022Jun 17vs L5.09927244
L5.09927244J.T. Ginn · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12@ L4.18676388
L4.18676388Jul 7@ L4.06142222
L4.06142222Jul 1vs W6.010443511
W6.010443511Jun 26@ W6.08958133
W6.08958133Jun 20vs L5.19856334
L5.19856334SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
J.T. Ginn
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN—
home starts5.72.114.05.03.3(3)
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 3-2 in Zack Littell's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 3-1 in Zack Littell's last 4 away starts.
- WSN average 4.0 runs/game in Zack Littell's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 5.0 runs/game in Zack Littell's last 4 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 0-10 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH have lost 10 straight.
- ATH are 2-3 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 4-1 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 3.8 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 6.2 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 4.94 (below avg)ERA 5.402d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 5.93 (poor)ERA 8.942d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- ATH — J.T. Ginn: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.93 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ATH bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WSN — Zack Littell: 20 days since last start (2026-06-28) — may not be fully stretched out
- WSN — Zack Littell: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-10, 2026-07-04 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ATH — J.T. Ginn: 2026-07-12: 8 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATH Team Total u5.5 (-128)
ATH offense is historically cold (wRC+ 58 L12 vs RHP, K% 29.1%), facing a WSN team with a decent bullpen situation. Despite Ginn's improved recent ERA (3.68 excl. the 18-ERA blowup), the Athletics offense is simply too weak to consistently score 5+ runs. Their avg RS in Ginn's recent starts is only 3.8, and WSN's bullpen, while shaky, doesn't need to be elite when the offense is this anemic. ATH is 0-10 in last 10 overall. The 5.5 line appears slightly inflated for a team this cold offensively.
WSN ML (-112)
WSN brings an elite offense (wRC+ 149 L12 vs RHP) against a struggling ATH team that is 0-10 in their last 10 games. ATH's bullpen is historically bad (xERA 5.93). While Littell's recent ERA is elevated (5.40) and there are rest concerns, the matchup is heavily skewed: elite WSN offense vs. a team in freefall with a historically bad bullpen. -112 is a reasonable price for this edge — the line hasn't moved to fully reflect ATH's 0-10 stretch.
DET @ LAA✓10:07 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
DET @ LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tarik Skubal L
xERA2.01 (elite)K%36.5 (elite)HH%17.1 (elite)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA2.25IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs92BB%4.8
LAA vs LHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%29.8 (poor)HH%42.9 (above avg)
G. Rodriguez R
xERA5.70 (poor)K%11.7 (poor)HH%52.2 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA4.85IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs73BB%8.3
DET vs RHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%25.9 (below avg)HH%35.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-196-1.5 (-114)O8.0 (-110)LAA+167+1.5 (+100)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-235-0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+112)LAA+185+0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO4.5 (-128)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)LAAO3.5 (+124)U3.5 (-154)O1.5 (+120)U1.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTarik Skubal8.5 (-110 / -114)18.5 (+147 / -198)G. Rodriguez5.5 (+128 / -157)15.5 (+130 / -144)
Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs L5.09354122
L5.09354122Jul 7vs W5.09695211
W5.09695211Jun 30@ W6.08791012
W6.08791012Jun 24vs L6.08594044
L6.08594044Jun 19vs W5.29487133
W5.29487133G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 10@ W5.17906133
W5.17906133Jun 14vs L2.14713222
L2.14713222Jun 8vs L5.19266223
L5.19266223Jun 2vs L3.29137378
L3.29137378May 28@ W5.08852211
W5.08852211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tarik Skubal
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA5.14.417.05.01.0(2)
at LAA6.01.508.04.00.0(1)
G. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs DET5.01.805.02.02.0(1)
home starts3.59.523.35.32.3(3)
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-2 vs LAA this season (4 games).
- DET are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 3-2 in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Tarik Skubal's last 5 away starts.
- DET average 4.2 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- DET average 3.8 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 2-2 vs DET this season (4 games).
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 2-3 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-4 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 4.0 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 3.8 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 2.19 (elite)ERA 2.722d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 3.46 (good)ERA 5.402d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- LAA — G. Rodriguez: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- DET — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: NYY 33%, PHI 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- LAA — G. Rodriguez: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- LAA — G. Rodriguez: 2026-06-14: 2 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
DET -1.5 (-110)
Tarik Skubal (xERA 2.01, elite) faces G. Rodriguez (xERA 5.70, poor — recent ERA 6.77, HH% 52%, short outings). Rodriguez's home ERA this season is 9.52 in 3 home starts. LAA offense is hot vs LHP (wRC+ 121) but Rodriguez is the bigger liability here — DET offense, while below avg overall (wRC+ 87 vs RHP), benefits from Rodriguez's extreme run-allowance rate. DET bullpen is elite (xERA 2.47). LAA bullpen is poor (xERA 4.16). Despite Skubal's recent struggles (recent ERA 4.19), his xERA 2.01 indicates true elite quality and he's facing a strikeout-prone LAA lineup. The -1.5 at -110 is exceptional value given the massive quality gap between the two starters, the bullpen disparity, and Rodriguez's home track record.
Tarik Skubal o8.5 Ks (+107)
Skubal is an elite K pitcher (xERA 2.01, K% 36.5%) averaging 8.7 K/start recently (9K, 9K, 8K). The flag notes recent high-K opponents (NYY 33%, PHI 31%), but LAA vs LHP has a 29.8% K rate — still well above average, so the strikeout environment is favorable. Skubal goes deep (5.3 IP/gs avg, recent 6IP, 6IP, 5.2IP) and should get enough innings. At +107 for Over 8.5, this is positive EV given his recent volume and the LAA lineup's tendency to strikeout. His recent ERA (4.19) is slightly elevated but xERA (2.01) confirms elite underlying skill — the recent ERA spike doesn't indicate a K-rate decline.