AI Picks · 12 Bets · Jul 5
LAD Team Total o5.5 (-113)
JP Sears is one of the worst starters in today's slate: xERA 6.39 (poor), recent ERA 7.66, HH% 47%, Barrel% 14%, no data vs LAD or at this park. He is facing the LAD offense which is at wRC+ 199 vs LHP — genuinely elite, historically rare number. LAD is 8-2 in L10. SDP bullpen is also shaky (xERA 4.33, ERA 7.16). Even with Sheehan's mediocre recent ERA on the other side, the LAD offense vs Sears is a massive mismatch. Team total Over 5.5 at -113 isolates the LAD scoring edge without depending on the SDP offense or the full-game total. Primary risk is Sheehan also limiting SDP offense (keeping the game from becoming a blowout), but LAD's scoring is the independent edge here.
Found at 4:54 PM ET
BOS @ LAA u8.0 (-105)
Ranger Suarez is elite (xERA 2.54) and in sharp recent form (1.56 recent ERA, HOT) facing a poor LAA offense vs LHP (wRC+ 65). BOS offense is below average vs RHP (wRC+ 84). Ryan Johnson is struggling acutely (recent ERA 9.00) but the market already accounts for that with the low total of 8.0 — and both bullpens are solid (BOS 3.76 xERA, LAA 3.69 xERA). Suarez limits LAA bats heavily; even with Johnson struggling, BOS offense is cold too. The primary under driver is Suarez dominating a poor LAA lineup at a neutral park. Total of 8.0 appears slightly generous given Suarez's elite form and LAA's woeful offense vs LHP.
Found at 11:05 AM ET
Ranger Suarez o6.5 Ks (+118)
Suarez has elite K% (29.3%) and is in hot recent form averaging 6.0 K/start recently. The flag notes recent Ks came vs high-K opponents (SEA 26%, COL 25%, WSN 30%) — but LAA also has a 23.9% K rate vs LHP, not far behind those. Adjusted expectation still sits around 6.0-6.5 Ks. The line is 6.5 at +118 — excellent value for a pitcher this good against a strikeout-prone-enough lineup. BOS bullpen is fresh which could be a short-leash concern, but Suarez's 6.2 IP/gs average and deep recent pitch counts suggest he'll get the opportunities. The +118 price makes this a clear value play even accounting for the slight downward calibration.
Found at 11:05 AM ET
PHI @ KCR o8.5 (+102)
Multiple over signals converge here. (1) Both starters are struggling: Nola's recent ERA is 4.44 with high HH% (46%) and Barrel% (13%), and Avila's recent ERA is 8.65 with a disastrous last start. (2) Nola's season ERA (6.91) >> xERA (4.14) — but xERA at 4.14 is still average, and the market-setting ERA gap doesn't help the under. (3) PHI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 144), arguably the hottest offense in today's slate. (4) KCR bullpen is very weak (xERA 4.83, ERA 7.74). (5) PHI's team trends show avg 6.8 RS in Nola's recent starts, and PHI has won 7 of last 10 with 6.0 avg RS away. The main anchor is PHI's elite offense vs a struggling Avila (8.65 recent ERA, 13% BB%, terrible home splits: 15.58 ERA at home in L3 starts). Even if Nola is decent, the KCR bullpen will give up runs. The line at +102 is plus money — the market isn't fully pricing the scoring risk.
Found at 4:54 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
NYM @ ATL F5 u4.5 (+112)
Nolan McLean is HOT (recent ERA 1.59, averaging 6.7 K/start, strong matchup history vs ATL: 3.27 ERA/6.5 K/gs). Martin Perez is also in decent recent form (2.80 recent ERA). ATL offense is brutal vs RHP in L12 (wRC+ 51 — poor), and NYM offense vs LHP is only average (wRC+ 111). ATL bullpen is elite (xERA 2.85). Getting +112 on F5 Under 4.5 with McLean dealing and ATL's cold offense is clear value.
Found at 5:55 AM ET
Nolan McLean Ks o6.5 (+142)
McLean is averaging 6.7 K/start in his last 3 outings (9K, 6K, 5K) with a K% of 31.2%. ATL offense has a 19.8% K% vs RHP in L12 — decent matchup. McLean's recent K outings came against CIN (27% K), ATL (19.8% K — today's opponent), and SDP (~21% K), so no major inflation concern. Market line of 6.5 at +142 is underpriced given his recent form and deep outings (6.3 IP/gs). The ATL bullpen flag means the manager will likely let him pitch deep if he's rolling. Getting plus money on a pitcher averaging 6.7 K/start in his last 3 is strong value.
Found at 5:55 AM ET
PIT @ WSN o9.5 (+100)
Cade Cavalli is struggling badly recently (6.64 ERA in L3, 2-2 IP outing, exits early; vs PIT historically: 10.33 ERA/3.0 IP/gs in 2gs). Cavalli's xERA of 2.75 is elite but his recent form is concerning and small-sample history vs PIT is alarming. PIT offense is elite vs RHP in L12 (wRC+ 150). WSN bullpen is terrible (xERA 5.58 — a disqualifier for WSN ML/spread, but not totals; ERA 7.33). Bubba Chandler has decent recent ERA (3.21) but WSN offense is above average (wRC+ 124) and PIT bullpen is below average (xERA 4.87). Both pens are shaky. Getting Even money (+100) on an over in a game with two struggling/limited starters and catastrophic bullpens is value.
Found at 5:55 AM ET
Joe Ryan Ks o6.5 (-113)
Joe Ryan is HOT with a 2.12 recent ERA, averaging 6.7 K/start in L3 (7K, 8K, 5K). His K% is 30.9% and NYY offense vs RHP in L12 has a brutal 31.2% K% — one of the highest K rates in baseball. This is an excellent matchup. Recent K outings came vs TEX (~21% K), STL (~16% K), KCR (~23% K); today NYY is at 31.2% — calibrating UP from his recent 6.7 avg, we'd expect 7–8 Ks. The line is 6.5 at -113, which is a reasonable price for a pitcher who is averaging 6.7 against less K-prone lineups than today's opponent. Ryan also has a 1.45 ERA in 1 prior start at Yankee Stadium. Both bullpens are stressed (flags say deeper starts likely). Adjusted expectation of ~7.5 Ks vs the 6.5 line supports the over.
Found at 5:55 AM ET
MIN @ NYY u8.5 (-114)
Joe Ryan is elite (xERA 2.96) and HOT in recent form (recent ERA 2.12, avg 6.7 K/start), with a strong historical matchup at Yankee Stadium (1.45 ERA, 6.2 IP). NYY offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 47 in L12 — very cold). NYY's Ryan Weathers is struggling (recent ERA 6.67) but that's partially skewed; MIN offense vs LHP is also very cold (wRC+ 15 in L12 — historically bad). Both offenses are extremely cold: NYY wRC+ 47 and MIN wRC+ 15 vs LHP. NYY has an elite bullpen (xERA 2.37). The poor MIN offense limits any Weathers blowup potential. Two ice-cold lineups and one dominant starter (Ryan) plus an elite NYY pen makes 8.5 look inflated.
Found at 11:05 AM ET
STL @ CHC o8.0 (-105)
M. Liberatore is severely struggling (recent ERA 11.49, xERA 4.90) with a 15% Barrel rate and high HR risk — facing a CHC lineup that is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 134). Assad has a very poor xERA (6.63) with 54% HH% and 17% Barrel%, despite recent hot results — facing a STL offense that is above average vs RHP (wRC+ 115). Assad's recent hot streak is likely unsustainable given his underlying metrics, and Liberatore is a clear liability. CHC bullpen is below average (xERA 4.85). STL bullpen is solid (xERA 3.74) but Assad's xERA and hard contact metrics suggest runs will come early. Three over signals align: struggling starter (Liberatore), dangerous offense (CHC wRC+ 134 vs LHP), and Assad's underlying xERA/HH%/Barrel% suggesting regression. Total of 8.0 appears low for this matchup.
Found at 11:05 AM ET
PHI Team Total o5.5 (+106)
PHI has an elite offense vs RHP in L12 (wRC+ 141), and KCR's Luinder Avila is struggling badly (recent ERA 8.65, 0.2 IP/8 ER outing skewing it; even adjusting, he has a 3.60 xERA with 12.9% BB% and command issues). KCR bullpen is a disaster (xERA 4.61, ERA 7.92). PHI is averaging 6.0 RS in road starts (L5 away) and went 5-0 in SP away L5. Getting +106 on PHI to score 6+ runs against a shaky starter and weak bullpen is solid value.
Found at 5:55 AM ET
SFG @ COL o13.0 (-104)
Coors Field (APF 116) — the premier hitter's park in baseball. Tyler Mahle is struggling badly (recent ERA 8.40, high BB% 13.8%, average xERA 4.19). Tanner Gordon has elite-looking recent ERA (1.80) but a catastrophic xERA of 3.51 and HH% of 44.9% — his recent run is due for regression, plus his home ERA history is ugly (10.12 ERA at home in 2yr, 12.00 ERA vs SFG). Both bullpens are terrible (SFG xERA 4.60/ERA 6.25, COL xERA 4.97/ERA 5.44). SFG offense is hot (wRC+ 121 L12) and COL offense is equally hot (wRC+ 121 L12). This is a full-house Coors environment with two shaky starters and bad pens. Getting the over at -104 on 13.0 is fair value.
Found at 5:55 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
NYM @ 
ATL✓12:30 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
NYM @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Nolan McLean R
xERA3.21 (good)K%31.2 (elite)HH%29.8 (elite)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA2.84IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs97BB%6.2
ATL vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%19.2 (above avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
Martin Perez L
xERA4.90 (below avg)K%14.7 (below avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA4.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs81BB%13.2
NYM vs LHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%23.8 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+108+1.5 (-190)O8.5 (-115)ATL-125-1.5 (+168)U8.5 (-105)
Nolan McLean · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ W6.09655123
W6.09655123Jun 30@ 
W6.09175200
W6.09175200Jun 24vs 
L6.010497266
L6.010497266Jun 17@ 
W7.010193101
W7.010193101Jun 12vs W4.09363422
W4.09363422Martin Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs L4.17716245
L4.17716245Jun 30vs 
L5.08515344
L5.08515344Jun 24@ 
L4.08244433
L4.08244433Jun 19vs 
W6.08256211
W6.08256211Jun 13@ W5.17144111
W5.17144111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nolan McLean
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.73.186.04.01.7(3)
at ATL6.52.776.04.50.5(2)
Martin Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM4.64.892.55.01.5(2)
home starts5.05.362.35.72.3(3)
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 2-3 vs ATL this season (5 games).
- NYM are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 3-2 in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 3-2 in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.
- NYM average 4.4 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.6 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 3-2 vs NYM this season (5 games).
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 3-2 in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-2 in Martin Perez's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 3.4 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.6 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 4.06 (avg)ERA 4.972d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
ATL
xERA 2.77 (elite)ERA 2.742d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
86°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 4 mph W
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- ATL — Martin Perez: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATL bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM — Nolan McLean: 2026-06-24: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATL — Martin Perez: 2026-06-30: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
NYM @ ATL F5 u4.5 (+112)
Nolan McLean is HOT (recent ERA 1.59, averaging 6.7 K/start, strong matchup history vs ATL: 3.27 ERA/6.5 K/gs). Martin Perez is also in decent recent form (2.80 recent ERA). ATL offense is brutal vs RHP in L12 (wRC+ 51 — poor), and NYM offense vs LHP is only average (wRC+ 111). ATL bullpen is elite (xERA 2.85). Getting +112 on F5 Under 4.5 with McLean dealing and ATL's cold offense is clear value.
Nolan McLean Ks o6.5 (+142)
McLean is averaging 6.7 K/start in his last 3 outings (9K, 6K, 5K) with a K% of 31.2%. ATL offense has a 19.8% K% vs RHP in L12 — decent matchup. McLean's recent K outings came against CIN (27% K), ATL (19.8% K — today's opponent), and SDP (~21% K), so no major inflation concern. Market line of 6.5 at +142 is underpriced given his recent form and deep outings (6.3 IP/gs). The ATL bullpen flag means the manager will likely let him pitch deep if he's rolling. Getting plus money on a pitcher averaging 6.7 K/start in his last 3 is strong value.
PIT @ 
WSN✓1:00 PM · Nationals ParkHot
PIT @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bubba Chandler R
xERA3.53 (good)K%14.1 (below avg)HH%40.4 (below avg)Barrel%7.0 (good)ERA4.08IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs86BB%9.0
WSN vs RHP
wRC+150 (elite)K%22.5 (avg)HH%42.4 (above avg)
Cade Cavalli R
xERA2.75 (elite)K%32.8 (elite)HH%42.1 (below avg)Barrel%2.6 (elite)ERA2.30IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs87BB%6.2
PIT vs RHP
wRC+155 (elite)K%27.4 (below avg)HH%42.3 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+116+1.5 (-171)O9.5 (+100)WSN-130-1.5 (+152)U9.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+110+0.5 (-130)O5.5 (+110)WSN-138-0.5 (+100)U5.5 (-144)
Team Totals
OverUnderPITO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-120)WSNO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBubba Chandler4.5 (-113 / +100)15.5 (+120 / -158)Cade Cavalli6.5 (+122 / -145)16.5 (-110 / -121)
Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ W4.08606444
W4.08606444Jun 30@ 
L6.19767255
L6.19767255Jun 25vs 
W5.17545311
W5.17545311Jun 19@ 
L6.07416222
L6.07416222Jun 13vs 
W5.28463122
W5.28463122Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs L2.16336234
L2.16336234Jun 30@ 
W7.0100131001
W7.0100131001Jun 25vs L6.09775122
L6.09775122Jun 20@ 
W2.26816322
W2.26816322Jun 13vs W5.08154033
W5.08154033SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bubba Chandler
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.04.503.54.02.0(2)
at WSN5.04.503.54.02.0(2)
Cade Cavalli
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT2.710.982.34.03.0(3)
home starts4.45.505.05.01.0(3)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 4-3 vs WSN this season (7 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 1-4 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 4.2 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 4.2 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-4 vs PIT this season (7 games).
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 3-2 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-3 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 5.2 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 6.0 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 4.79 (below avg)ERA 4.052d stress Normal (5.3 IP/2g)
WSN
xERA 5.18 (below avg)ERA 6.752d stress Stressed (12.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
93°F, Clear, Wind 1 mph SSE
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.18 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- WSN bullpen stressed (12.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: 2026-06-30: 5 ER in 6.1 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WSN — Cade Cavalli: 2026-06-20: 2 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WSN — Cade Cavalli: low-K outing 2026-06-20 (1 Ks vs avg 7.0) — stuff was flat that day
- WSN — Cade Cavalli: high-K outing 2026-06-30 (13 Ks vs avg 7.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
PIT @ WSN o9.5 (+100)
Cade Cavalli is struggling badly recently (6.64 ERA in L3, 2-2 IP outing, exits early; vs PIT historically: 10.33 ERA/3.0 IP/gs in 2gs). Cavalli's xERA of 2.75 is elite but his recent form is concerning and small-sample history vs PIT is alarming. PIT offense is elite vs RHP in L12 (wRC+ 150). WSN bullpen is terrible (xERA 5.58 — a disqualifier for WSN ML/spread, but not totals; ERA 7.33). Bubba Chandler has decent recent ERA (3.21) but WSN offense is above average (wRC+ 124) and PIT bullpen is below average (xERA 4.87). Both pens are shaky. Getting Even money (+100) on an over in a game with two struggling/limited starters and catastrophic bullpens is value.
BAL @ CIN1:05 PM · Great American Ball Park
BAL @ CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kyle Bradish R
xERA2.48 (elite)K%29.9 (elite)HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%2.2 (elite)ERA1.83IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs97BB%10.4
CIN vs RHP
wRC+69 (poor)K%27.0 (below avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
Nick Lodolo L
xERA5.01 (below avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%5.1 (good)ERA4.61IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs89BB%11.7
BAL vs LHP
wRC+92 (below avg)K%26.7 (below avg)HH%34.6 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-108-1.5 (+143)O9.5 (-110)CIN-108+1.5 (-170)U9.5 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-106+0.5 (-148)O4.5 (-144)CIN-118-0.5 (+114)U4.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderBALO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (-102)CINO4.5 (-110)U4.5 (-113)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Bradish6.5 (+105 / -122)16.5 (-107 / -124)Nick Lodolo5.5 (-122 / -104)15.5 (-118 / -113)
Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ L7.210655133
L7.210655133Jun 28vs L4.08521534
L4.08521534Jun 22@ 
W8.010196100
W8.010196100Jun 17@ W7.2100125211
W7.2100125211Jun 11vs W4.08557355
W4.08557355Nick Lodolo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs W6.09746211
W6.09746211Jun 29@ L5.09641400
L5.09641400Jun 23vs L4.07562100
L4.07562100Jun 17vs L4.290211277
L4.290211277Jun 12vs 
L5.19655122
L5.19655122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Bradish
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN7.23.755.05.01.0(1)
at CIN7.23.755.05.01.0(1)
Nick Lodolo
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL6.01.504.06.02.0(1)
home starts4.75.074.06.31.7(3)
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 2-1 vs CIN this season (3 games).
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 2-3 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 5.2 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 4.0 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 1-2 vs BAL this season (3 games).
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 0-5 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-4 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 2.2 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 3.2 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 1.92 (elite)ERA 2.362d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
CIN
xERA 4.05 (avg)ERA 4.122d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
Weather
85°F, Wind 7 mph
Flags · 6
- BAL bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CIN bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: low-K outing 2026-06-28 (2 Ks vs avg 7.7) — stuff was flat that day
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: recent opponents high-K: SEA 26%, LAA 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- CIN — Nick Lodolo: 2026-06-17: 7 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: rain chance 37% — monitor for delays
MIN @ 
NYY✓1:35 PM · Yankee StadiumHitter Friendly
MIN @ NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Joe Ryan R
xERA2.96 (elite)K%30.9 (elite)HH%41.5 (below avg)Barrel%14.6 (below avg)ERA6.00IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs98BB%8.8
NYY vs RHP
wRC+47 (poor)K%28.2 (poor)HH%42.4 (above avg)
Ryan Weathers L
xERA5.48 (poor)K%27.4 (good)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA2.57IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs80BB%6.5
MIN vs LHP
wRC+15 (poor)K%25.5 (below avg)HH%40.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN—-4.5 (-1800)O7.5 (+1080)NYY—+4.5 (+1080)U7.5 (-1800)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+108+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-113)NYY-135-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
OverUnderMINO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+110)NYYO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UJoe Ryan6.5 (-113 / -103)Ryan Weathers5.5 (-120 / -104)
Joe Ryan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ W7.010693100
W7.010693100Jun 30@ 
L4.09156366
L4.09156366Jun 24vs 
L6.09898144
L6.09898144Jun 18@ 
W5.09773200
W5.09773200Jun 12vs W6.010286033
W6.010286033Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs L4.08866244
L4.08866244Jun 29vs 
L1.25537125
L1.25537125Jun 24@ W6.09766212
W6.09766212Jun 18vs 
L6.18883111
L6.18883111Jun 12@ L4.18225166
L4.18225166SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Joe Ryan
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.60.688.03.51.5(2)
at NYY6.60.688.03.51.5(2)
Ryan Weathers
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN4.09.006.06.02.0(1)
home starts3.85.585.75.31.3(3)
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 2-1 vs NYY this season (3 games).
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 2-3 in Joe Ryan's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Joe Ryan's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 5.4 runs/game in Joe Ryan's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 5.6 runs/game in Joe Ryan's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 1-2 vs MIN this season (3 games).
- NYY are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 1-4 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 4.79 (below avg)ERA 5.202d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
NYY
xERA 2.37 (elite)ERA 1.622d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph ENE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- MIN — Joe Ryan: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- NYY — Ryan Weathers: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIN bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIN — Joe Ryan: 2026-06-30: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NYY — Ryan Weathers: last start: 55 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- NYY — Ryan Weathers: 2026-06-29: 2 ER in 1.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NYY — Ryan Weathers: recent opponents low-K: DET 19%, DET 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
Joe Ryan Ks o6.5 (-113)
Joe Ryan is HOT with a 2.12 recent ERA, averaging 6.7 K/start in L3 (7K, 8K, 5K). His K% is 30.9% and NYY offense vs RHP in L12 has a brutal 31.2% K% — one of the highest K rates in baseball. This is an excellent matchup. Recent K outings came vs TEX (~21% K), STL (~16% K), KCR (~23% K); today NYY is at 31.2% — calibrating UP from his recent 6.7 avg, we'd expect 7–8 Ks. The line is 6.5 at -113, which is a reasonable price for a pitcher who is averaging 6.7 against less K-prone lineups than today's opponent. Ryan also has a 1.45 ERA in 1 prior start at Yankee Stadium. Both bullpens are stressed (flags say deeper starts likely). Adjusted expectation of ~7.5 Ks vs the 6.5 line supports the over.
MIN @ NYY u8.5 (-114)
Joe Ryan is elite (xERA 2.96) and HOT in recent form (recent ERA 2.12, avg 6.7 K/start), with a strong historical matchup at Yankee Stadium (1.45 ERA, 6.2 IP). NYY offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 47 in L12 — very cold). NYY's Ryan Weathers is struggling (recent ERA 6.67) but that's partially skewed; MIN offense vs LHP is also very cold (wRC+ 15 in L12 — historically bad). Both offenses are extremely cold: NYY wRC+ 47 and MIN wRC+ 15 vs LHP. NYY has an elite bullpen (xERA 2.37). The poor MIN offense limits any Weathers blowup potential. Two ice-cold lineups and one dominant starter (Ryan) plus an elite NYY pen makes 8.5 look inflated.
CHW @ 
CLE2:00 PM · Progressive FieldRainy
CHW @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Chris Murphy
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CLE
No data
Tanner Bibee R
xERA3.24 (good)K%17.4 (avg)HH%32.1 (good)Barrel%3.8 (elite)ERA2.45IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs81BB%4.3
CHW vs RHP
wRC+130 (elite)K%21.8 (avg)HH%41.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW-558-2.5 (-136)O13.5 (+117)CLE+440+2.5 (+114)U12.5 (+115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+136+0.5 (-110)O4.5 (-120)CLE-172-0.5 (-118)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderCHWO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (+100)CLEO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UChris Murphy—Tanner Bibee4.5 (-140 / +117)
Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs L4.06216166
L4.06216166Jun 30vs L7.09125023
L7.09125023Jun 24@ W6.08933100
W6.08933100Jun 19@ L5.19574234
L5.19574234Jun 12vs W7.09182222
W7.09182222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW6.32.844.73.70.7(3)
home starts6.05.003.74.31.0(3)
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 3-3 vs CLE this season (6 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 3-3 vs CHW this season (6 games).
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-4 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.4 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 2.70 (elite)ERA 3.022d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
CLE
xERA 5.07 (below avg)ERA 4.312d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Rainy
74°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph NE
APF 100 — Neutral · Rain possible (72%)
Flags · 5
- CHW — Chris Murphy: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- CLE bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.07 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- CHW bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WEATHER: rain risk 72% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
STL @ CHC✓2:30 PM · Wrigley FieldPitcher Friendly
STL @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
M. Liberatore L
xERA4.90 (below avg)K%23.3 (good)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%15.4 (poor)ERA9.00IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs91BB%10.0
CHC vs LHP
wRC+134 (elite)K%24.1 (below avg)HH%41.2 (above avg)
Javier Assad R
xERA6.63 (poor)K%12.3 (below avg)HH%54.4 (poor)Barrel%17.4 (poor)ERA6.08IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs7.5PC/gs72BB%7.0
STL vs RHP
wRC+115 (above avg)K%17.9 (above avg)HH%40.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+1100+2.5 (+190)O10.5 (+110)CHC-2500-2.5 (-205)U9.5 (+128)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+122+0.5 (-118)O4.5 (-138)CHC-152-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderSTLO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (-111)CHCO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UM. Liberatore4.5 (+124 / -157)Javier Assad3.5 (-108 / +102)
M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ L5.07834244
L5.07834244Jun 30@ W5.09891411
W5.09891411Jun 24vs L5.19838266
L5.19838266Jun 18@ 
L1.24827057
L1.24827057Jun 13@ W4.17045144
W4.17045144Javier Assad · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs W4.28022200
W4.28022200Jun 30vs W2.2*5315244
W2.2*5315244Jun 24@ W5.08355233
W5.08355233Jun 17vs W5.29215022
W5.29215022Jun 12@ 
W6.08553100
W6.08553100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
M. Liberatore
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.03.583.73.72.3(3)
at CHC5.05.403.54.03.0(2)
Javier Assad
IPERAKHBB
vs STL4.70.004.02.51.5(2)
home starts4.71.911.53.51.0(2)
Trends · STL
- STL are 4-1 vs CHC this season (5 games).
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 3-2 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 6.0 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL average 4.6 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 1-4 vs STL this season (5 games).
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 4-1 in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-0 in Javier Assad's last 2 home starts.
- CHC average 5.0 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 5.0 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 3.832d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
CHC
xERA 4.85 (below avg)ERA 4.702d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
68°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph NNW
APF 96 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 7
- STL — M. Liberatore: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CHC — Javier Assad: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHC — Javier Assad: Barrel% 17% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CHC bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL — M. Liberatore: high-K outing 2026-06-30 (9 Ks vs avg 4.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- CHC — Javier Assad: 11 days since last start (2026-06-24) — may not be fully stretched out
- CHC — Javier Assad: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-30, 2026-06-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
STL @ CHC o8.0 (-105)
M. Liberatore is severely struggling (recent ERA 11.49, xERA 4.90) with a 15% Barrel rate and high HR risk — facing a CHC lineup that is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 134). Assad has a very poor xERA (6.63) with 54% HH% and 17% Barrel%, despite recent hot results — facing a STL offense that is above average vs RHP (wRC+ 115). Assad's recent hot streak is likely unsustainable given his underlying metrics, and Liberatore is a clear liability. CHC bullpen is below average (xERA 4.85). STL bullpen is solid (xERA 3.74) but Assad's xERA and hard contact metrics suggest runs will come early. Three over signals align: struggling starter (Liberatore), dangerous offense (CHC wRC+ 134 vs LHP), and Assad's underlying xERA/HH%/Barrel% suggesting regression. Total of 8.0 appears low for this matchup.
PHI @ KCR✓3:00 PM · Kauffman StadiumHitter Friendly
PHI @ KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Aaron Nola R
xERA4.14 (avg)K%23.5 (good)HH%45.6 (poor)Barrel%13.0 (below avg)ERA6.91IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs85BB%7.3
KCR vs RHP
wRC+68 (poor)K%26.6 (below avg)HH%44.6 (above avg)
Luinder Avila R
xERA3.60 (good)K%24.2 (good)HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%2.6 (elite)ERA3.68IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs81BB%12.9
PHI vs RHP
wRC+144 (elite)K%24.0 (below avg)HH%44.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-170-1.5 (+100)O8.5 (+102)KCR+144+1.5 (-115)U8.0 (-105)
Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ L6.08347033
L6.08347033Jun 29vs L4.18658278
L4.18658278Jun 24@ W5.08653222
W5.08653222Jun 18vs L5.09767123
L5.09767123Jun 13@ W4.28536233
W4.28536233Luinder Avila · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs W5.06943111
W5.06943111Jun 28@ W4.08646344
W4.08646344Jun 23@ W5.08763411
W5.08763411Jun 17@ W5.29153111
W5.29153111Jun 12vs L0.24905388
L0.24905388SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Aaron Nola
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR6.06.754.56.50.5(2)
at KCR6.04.504.07.00.0(1)
Luinder Avila
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.01.804.03.01.0(1)
home starts2.615.582.04.02.0(2)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 5-0 in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 6.8 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 6.0 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR have lost 4 straight.
- KCR are 4-1 in Luinder Avila's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 0-2 in Luinder Avila's last 2 home starts.
- KCR average 6.8 runs/game in Luinder Avila's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 5.0 runs/game in Luinder Avila's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 5.332d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 4.83 (below avg)ERA 7.742d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph N
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- PHI — Aaron Nola: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PHI — Aaron Nola: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR — Luinder Avila: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- PHI — Aaron Nola: 2026-06-29: 7 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- KCR — Luinder Avila: 2026-06-28: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
PHI Team Total o5.5 (+106)
PHI has an elite offense vs RHP in L12 (wRC+ 141), and KCR's Luinder Avila is struggling badly (recent ERA 8.65, 0.2 IP/8 ER outing skewing it; even adjusting, he has a 3.60 xERA with 12.9% BB% and command issues). KCR bullpen is a disaster (xERA 4.61, ERA 7.92). PHI is averaging 6.0 RS in road starts (L5 away) and went 5-0 in SP away L5. Getting +106 on PHI to score 6+ runs against a shaky starter and weak bullpen is solid value.
PHI @ KCR o8.5 (+102)
Multiple over signals converge here. (1) Both starters are struggling: Nola's recent ERA is 4.44 with high HH% (46%) and Barrel% (13%), and Avila's recent ERA is 8.65 with a disastrous last start. (2) Nola's season ERA (6.91) >> xERA (4.14) — but xERA at 4.14 is still average, and the market-setting ERA gap doesn't help the under. (3) PHI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 144), arguably the hottest offense in today's slate. (4) KCR bullpen is very weak (xERA 4.83, ERA 7.74). (5) PHI's team trends show avg 6.8 RS in Nola's recent starts, and PHI has won 7 of last 10 with 6.0 avg RS away. The main anchor is PHI's elite offense vs a struggling Avila (8.65 recent ERA, 13% BB%, terrible home splits: 15.58 ERA at home in L3 starts). Even if Nola is decent, the KCR bullpen will give up runs. The line at +102 is plus money — the market isn't fully pricing the scoring risk.
DET @ TEX3:30 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
DET @ TEXMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Casey Mize R
xERA2.93 (elite)K%27.9 (good)HH%38.3 (avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs80BB%2.9
TEX vs RHP
wRC+101 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%44.2 (above avg)
Kumar Rocker R
xERA3.23 (good)K%29.0 (elite)HH%39.0 (avg)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA5.02IP/gs7.2 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs84BB%4.8
DET vs RHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%24.6 (below avg)HH%41.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-240-1.5 (-107)O7.5 (+102)TEX+210+1.5 (-115)U7.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-118-0.5 (+118)O4.5 (-102)TEX-106+0.5 (-154)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderDETO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+114)TEXO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-113)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCasey Mize5.5 (+108 / +132)17.5 (-104 / -127)Kumar Rocker4.5 (-130 / +117)15.5 (+112 / -130)
Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ W4.05643111
W4.05643111Jun 29@ W7.088101000
W7.088101000Jun 23vs L5.29768144
L5.29768144Jun 17@ L4.28636133
L4.28636133May 27vs W4.05862100
W4.05862100Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs L4.18545122
L4.18545122Jun 28@ W6.09254100
W6.09254100Jun 22@ W5.0*7695022
W5.0*7695022Jun 16vs L3.17047267
L3.17047267Jun 11@ W4.28335222
W4.28335222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Casey Mize
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX4.02.254.03.01.0(1)
at TEX4.02.254.03.01.0(1)
Kumar Rocker
IPERAKHBB
vs DET4.15.163.74.31.3(3)
home starts4.17.384.36.01.3(3)
Trends · DET
- DET are 3-2 vs TEX this season (5 games).
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 2-3 in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-4 in Casey Mize's last 5 away starts.
- DET average 3.4 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- DET average 2.8 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 2-3 vs DET this season (5 games).
- TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 4-1 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 3.8 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.6 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 2.79 (elite)ERA 4.932d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 3.78 (avg)ERA 5.512d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 4
- TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- DET — Casey Mize: recent opponents high-K: NYY 28%, NYY 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: 2026-06-16: 6 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
TBR @ HOU3:30 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
TBR @ HOUMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mason Englert R
xERA2.20 (elite)K%18.0 (avg)HH%15.8 (elite)Barrel%2.6 (elite)ERA0.73IP/gs12.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs71BB%4.0
HOU vs RHP
wRC+98 (avg)K%22.3 (avg)HH%33.6 (below avg)
Peter Lambert R
xERA2.84 (elite)K%20.8 (avg)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%6.0 (good)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs88BB%8.3
TBR vs RHP
wRC+146 (elite)K%16.1 (above avg)HH%38.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR+165+1.5 (-180)O5.5 (+103)HOU-186-1.5 (+164)U5.5 (-114)
Mason Englert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ L4.06663011
L4.06663011Jun 12@ L4.0*6534200
L4.0*6534200Jun 3vs L5.0*8234011
L5.0*8234011May 8@ L3.1*4633000
L3.1*4633000Apr 19@ L2.1*3832111
L2.1*3832111Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs W4.17252100
W4.17252100Jun 29vs L5.210045344
L5.210045344Jun 23@ W4.29266322
W4.29266322Jun 17vs W7.08952011
W7.08952011Jun 10@ L6.19165022
L6.19165022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mason Englert
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU4.02.256.03.00.0(1)
at HOU4.02.256.03.00.0(1)
Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR4.10.005.02.01.0(1)
home starts5.42.764.73.01.3(3)
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 1-1 vs HOU this season (2 games).
- TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 0-1 in Mason Englert's last 1 starts.
- TBR average 2.0 runs/game in Mason Englert's last 1 starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 1-1 vs TBR this season (2 games).
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 4.8 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 4.4 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.472d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
HOU
xERA 2.81 (elite)ERA 2.472d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 4
- HOU bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR — Mason Englert: 89 days since last start (2026-04-07) — may not be fully stretched out
- TBR — Mason Englert: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-12, 2026-06-03 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TBR — Mason Englert: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
MIL @ ARI4:00 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
MIL @ ARIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Brandon Sproat R
xERA2.12 (elite)K%41.8 (elite)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs78BB%7.3
ARI vs RHP
wRC+71 (poor)K%15.8 (elite)HH%36.1 (avg)
E. Rodriguez L
xERA4.38 (avg)K%14.1 (below avg)HH%42.6 (below avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA0.87IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs75BB%7.7
MIL vs LHP
wRC+95 (avg)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%32.3 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+164+1.5 (-140)O7.5 (+109)ARI-200-1.5 (+124)U6.5 (+106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-118-0.5 (+114)O4.5 (-140)ARI-106+0.5 (-148)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderMILO4.5 (-118)U4.5 (-105)ARIO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Sproat4.5 (+113 / -138)15.5 (+110 / -140)E. Rodriguez4.5 (+120 / -152)17.5 (-103 / -129)
Brandon Sproat · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ L2.04922211
L2.04922211Jun 30vs W5.110674222
W5.110674222Jun 23@ W6.080101000
W6.080101000Jun 17vs W3.26562244
W3.26562244Jun 10@ 
L6.06834111
L6.06834111E. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs W2.24011000
W2.24011000Jun 29vs W7.09115011
W7.09115011Jun 23@ W6.29553300
W6.29553300Jun 17vs W7.010056311
W7.010056311Jun 12@ W2.28532512
W2.28532512SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Sproat
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI3.07.383.54.02.0(2)
at ARI2.04.502.02.02.0(1)
E. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL2.87.412.04.01.7(3)
home starts5.41.112.34.01.0(3)
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 3-2 vs ARI this season (5 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 4-1 in Brandon Sproat's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 3-2 in Brandon Sproat's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 6.0 runs/game in Brandon Sproat's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 5.0 runs/game in Brandon Sproat's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-3 vs MIL this season (5 games).
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 4.6 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 4.0 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.75 (avg)ERA 3.242d stress Stressed (12.7 IP/2g)
ARI
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 3.702d stress Stressed (11.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- MIL bullpen stressed (12.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI bullpen stressed (11.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIL — Brandon Sproat: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- MIL — Brandon Sproat: 2026-06-17: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIL — Brandon Sproat: recent opponents high-K: CIN 27%, CIN 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
SFG @ COL✓4:00 PM · Coors FieldHot
SFG @ COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tyler Mahle R
xERA4.19 (avg)K%17.2 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA4.20IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs64BB%13.8
COL vs RHP
wRC+141 (elite)K%18.2 (above avg)HH%39.3 (avg)
Tanner Gordon R
xERA3.51 (good)K%14.5 (below avg)HH%44.9 (below avg)Barrel%8.2 (avg)ERA6.92IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs67BB%3.2
SFG vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%20.8 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+185+1.5 (-115)O14.5 (-109)COL-198-1.5 (+107)U13.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG-120-0.5 (+104)O6.5 (-135)COL-104+0.5 (-135)U6.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderSFGO6.5 (-115)U6.5 (-110)COLO5.5 (-135)U5.5 (+108)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Mahle3.5 (-162 / +130)15.5 (+125 / -155)Tanner Gordon3.5 (+104 / -130)15.5 (+115 / -153)
Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ L2.03635023
L2.03635023Jun 29@ L4.18534344
L4.18534344Jun 24vs W5.27042200
W5.27042200May 26vs L5.08133333
L5.08133333May 20@ L5.07968066
L5.07968066Tanner Gordon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs W3.05352122
W3.05352122Jun 30vs L5.07449055
L5.07449055May 31vs L3.07526144
L3.07526144May 25@ L5.08036111
L5.08036111May 19vs L6.1*81512177
L6.1*81512177SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs COL4.03.334.04.50.5(2)
at COL2.09.003.05.00.0(1)
Tanner Gordon
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG3.09.003.54.01.0(2)
home starts3.79.003.75.70.7(3)
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 2-3 vs COL this season (5 games).
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 1-4 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 0-5 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 3.2 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 2.0 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 3-2 vs SFG this season (5 games).
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 0-3 in Tanner Gordon's last 3 starts.
- COL are 0-2 in Tanner Gordon's last 2 home starts.
- COL average 4.0 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 3 starts.
- COL average 4.5 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 4.02 (avg)ERA 6.622d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
COL
xERA 4.53 (below avg)ERA 4.642d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
96°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph NE
APF 116 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
- SFG — Tyler Mahle: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- COL — Tanner Gordon: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SFG bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SFG — Tyler Mahle: 2026-06-29: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SFG — Tyler Mahle: recent opponents low-K: ARI 16%, ARI 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- COL — Tanner Gordon: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-19, 2026-05-14 — may affect pitch count or availability
- COL — Tanner Gordon: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- COL — Tanner Gordon: recent opponents low-K: LAD 18%, MIA 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 116) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
SFG @ COL o13.0 (-104)
Coors Field (APF 116) — the premier hitter's park in baseball. Tyler Mahle is struggling badly (recent ERA 8.40, high BB% 13.8%, average xERA 4.19). Tanner Gordon has elite-looking recent ERA (1.80) but a catastrophic xERA of 3.51 and HH% of 44.9% — his recent run is due for regression, plus his home ERA history is ugly (10.12 ERA at home in 2yr, 12.00 ERA vs SFG). Both bullpens are terrible (SFG xERA 4.60/ERA 6.25, COL xERA 4.97/ERA 5.44). SFG offense is hot (wRC+ 121 L12) and COL offense is equally hot (wRC+ 121 L12). This is a full-house Coors environment with two shaky starters and bad pens. Getting the over at -104 on 13.0 is fair value.
MIA @ ATH4:30 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
MIA @ ATHMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Eury Perez R
xERA2.31 (elite)K%34.6 (elite)HH%17.9 (elite)Barrel%10.7 (avg)ERA1.29IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs54BB%7.7
ATH vs RHP
wRC+73 (poor)K%26.6 (below avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Gage Jump L
xERA3.59 (good)K%31.8 (elite)HH%46.3 (poor)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA2.70IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs70BB%6.1
MIA vs LHP
wRC+54 (poor)K%25.0 (below avg)HH%30.6 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-169-1.5 (-105)O9.5 (-118)ATH+138+1.5 (-118)U9.5 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+110+0.5 (-125)O5.5 (+100)ATH-138-0.5 (-104)U5.5 (-130)
Team Totals
OverUnderMIAO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)ATHO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (-104)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEury Perez5.5 (-127 / +112)15.5 (+113 / -151)Gage Jump5.5 (+118 / -125)17.5 (+102 / -115)
Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ W1.0900000
W1.0900000Jun 30@ W5.18682411
W5.18682411Jun 24vs W4.26813011
W4.26813011May 27@ L4.07393000
L4.07393000May 22vs W6.18652011
W6.18652011Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs L1.02303011
L1.02303011Jun 29vs L4.291511055
L4.291511055Jun 24@ L5.09793100
L5.09793100Jun 18vs W7.010771300
W7.010771300Jun 12vs W5.07565133
W5.07565133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eury Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH1.00.000.00.00.0(1)
at ATH1.00.000.00.00.0(1)
Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA1.09.000.03.00.0(1)
home starts4.14.434.05.01.0(3)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-0 vs ATH this season (2 games).
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 3-2 in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-4 in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 4.8 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 4.0 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 0-2 vs MIA this season (2 games).
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 3-2 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-2 in Gage Jump's last 4 home starts.
- ATH average 4.2 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 4.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 4 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.83 (avg)ERA 5.592d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
ATH
xERA 4.53 (below avg)ERA 5.802d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 11 mph SW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- ATH — Gage Jump: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ATH bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIA — Eury Perez: low-K outing 2026-06-24 (1 Ks vs avg 6.0) — stuff was flat that day
- ATH — Gage Jump: 2026-06-29: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
TOR @ SEA5:00 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
TOR @ SEAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Trey Yesavage R
xERA2.91 (elite)K%18.4 (avg)HH%44.6 (below avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA2.29IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs98BB%6.6
SEA vs RHP
wRC+88 (below avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%37.6 (avg)
Emerson Hancock R
xERA4.05 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%44.9 (below avg)Barrel%8.2 (avg)ERA7.20IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs78BB%7.3
TOR vs RHP
wRC+72 (poor)K%23.1 (avg)HH%34.9 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+100-1.5 (+176)O7.5 (+100)SEA-112+1.5 (-195)U7.5 (-119)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR+100+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+108)SEA-120-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTORO3.5 (-111)U3.5 (-110)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)SEAO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-113)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrey Yesavage6.5 (+113 / +126)17.5 (-102 / -128)Emerson Hancock4.5 (+111 / -122)17.5 (+125 / -105)
Trey Yesavage · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 29vs W6.29433011
W6.29433011Jun 24vs L5.210552511
L5.210552511Jun 18@ W7.19564033
W7.19564033Jun 12vs W5.08134655
W5.08134655Jun 5vs L5.29155266
L5.29155266Emerson Hancock · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28@ L5.29865311
L5.29865311Jun 20vs L5.17664255
L5.17664255Jun 14@ L4.05929066
L4.05929066Jun 8@ W5.09233211
W5.09233211Jun 1vs W6.09172022
W6.09172022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Emerson Hancock
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR—
home starts5.45.035.73.71.7(3)
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 1-1 vs SEA this season (2 games).
- TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-3 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.
- TOR average 3.6 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.2 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 1-1 vs TOR this season (2 games).
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 2-3 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-3 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 3.2 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 2.2 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 2.93 (elite)ERA 2.942d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
SEA
xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 4.402d stress Fresh (4.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
70°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph N
APF 91 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 4
- TOR — Trey Yesavage: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SEA — Emerson Hancock: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SEA bullpen fresh (4.7 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 91) — park suppresses offense, favor the under
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling recently (Yesavage 7.28 recent ERA, Hancock 5.40 recent ERA) which points over, but both offenses are cold (TOR wRC+ 72, SEA wRC+ 88) and the park is pitcher-friendly (APF 91), actively suppressing offense; the total is set at a low 7.5 (+100 over) suggesting the market already prices in the cold offenses; insufficient confidence to overcome the counter-signals — no clean bet.
SDP @ LAD✓7:20 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
SDP @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
JP Sears L
xERA6.39 (poor)K%18.0 (avg)HH%47.2 (poor)Barrel%13.9 (below avg)ERA6.97IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs88BB%10.0
LAD vs LHP
wRC+199 (elite)K%19.9 (above avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Emmet Sheehan R
xERA4.38 (avg)K%27.4 (good)HH%46.0 (poor)Barrel%13.5 (below avg)ERA6.75IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs84BB%9.7
SDP vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%22.8 (avg)HH%35.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+188+1.5 (-105)O10.0 (-103)LAD-220-1.5 (-110)U9.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+170+0.5 (+114)O5.5 (-110)LAD-210-0.5 (-148)U5.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USDPO3.5 (-135)U3.5 (+108)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)LADO5.5 (-113)U5.5 (-110)O3.5 (+110)U3.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJP Sears3.5 (-142 / +117)14.5 (-177 / +140)Emmet Sheehan5.5 (-108 / -107)15.5 (-118 / -105)
JP Sears · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30@ L4.29548367
L4.29548367Jun 24vs W5.28155222
W5.28155222Emmet Sheehan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28@ W5.08452211
W5.08452211Jun 21vs L3.18248366
L3.18248366Jun 14@ L5.08584133
L5.08584133Jun 7vs L1.14923222
L1.14923222Jun 1@ L6.19233022
L6.19233022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Emmet Sheehan
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP4.34.154.33.31.0(3)
home starts3.48.824.75.32.0(3)
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 2-7 vs LAD this season (9 games).
- SDP are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP have lost 8 straight.
- SDP are 1-1 in JP Sears's last 2 starts.
- SDP are 0-1 in JP Sears's last 1 away starts.
- SDP average 6.0 runs/game in JP Sears's last 2 starts.
- SDP average 7.0 runs/game in JP Sears's last 1 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 7-2 vs SDP this season (9 games).
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 1-4 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-2 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 3.0 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.8 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 4.33 (avg)ERA 7.162d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
LAD
xERA 4.01 (avg)ERA 3.062d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- SDP — JP Sears: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SDP — JP Sears: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAD — Emmet Sheehan: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- LAD — Emmet Sheehan: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- SDP bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP — JP Sears: 2026-06-30: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAD — Emmet Sheehan: 2026-06-21: 6 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
LAD Team Total o5.5 (-113)
JP Sears is one of the worst starters in today's slate: xERA 6.39 (poor), recent ERA 7.66, HH% 47%, Barrel% 14%, no data vs LAD or at this park. He is facing the LAD offense which is at wRC+ 199 vs LHP — genuinely elite, historically rare number. LAD is 8-2 in L10. SDP bullpen is also shaky (xERA 4.33, ERA 7.16). Even with Sheehan's mediocre recent ERA on the other side, the LAD offense vs Sears is a massive mismatch. Team total Over 5.5 at -113 isolates the LAD scoring edge without depending on the SDP offense or the full-game total. Primary risk is Sheehan also limiting SDP offense (keeping the game from becoming a blowout), but LAD's scoring is the independent edge here.
BOS @ LAA✓9:30 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
BOS @ LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ranger Suarez L
xERA2.54 (elite)K%29.3 (elite)HH%27.1 (elite)Barrel%2.1 (elite)ERA1.93IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs97BB%6.7
LAA vs LHP
wRC+65 (poor)K%23.9 (avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
Ryan Johnson R
xERA2.90 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA3.38IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs87BB%3.1
BOS vs RHP
wRC+84 (below avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%34.0 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-154-1.5 (+110)O8.0 (-110)LAA+130+1.5 (-126)U8.0 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-160-0.5 (-113)O4.5 (-102)LAA+130+0.5 (-115)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBOSO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)LAAO3.5 (+102)U3.5 (-130)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URanger Suarez6.5 (+118 / -143)17.5 (-154 / +130)Ryan Johnson4.5 (+125 / -146)15.5 (+124 / -154)
Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 29vs W6.09585133
W6.09585133Jun 24@ L6.010297113
L6.010297113Jun 19@ W6.29451300
W6.29451300Jun 13vs W5.09776222
W5.09776222Jun 7@ L6.19066011
L6.19066011Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 29@ L5.08134013
L5.08134013Jun 23vs W6.09081100
W6.09081100Jun 18@ L5.08928155
L5.08928155May 19vs L2.0*3404155
L2.0*3404155May 17vs L2.0*3523133
L2.0*3523133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ranger Suarez
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA4.113.174.09.04.0(1)
at LAA—
Ryan Johnson
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS—
home starts6.00.008.01.01.0(1)
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 2-0 vs LAA this season (2 games).
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 5.0 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 5.8 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 0-2 vs BOS this season (2 games).
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA have lost 5 straight.
- LAA are 1-3 in Ryan Johnson's last 4 starts.
- LAA are 1-0 in Ryan Johnson's last 1 home starts.
- LAA average 2.2 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 4 starts.
- LAA average 5.0 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 1 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.76 (avg)ERA 5.452d stress Fresh (4.3 IP/2g)
LAA
xERA 3.69 (good)ERA 3.472d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- BOS bullpen fresh (4.3 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- LAA bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: recent opponents high-K: SEA 26%, COL 25%, WSN 30% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- LAA — Ryan Johnson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-19, 2026-05-17 — may affect pitch count or availability
- LAA — Ryan Johnson: 2026-06-18: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAA — Ryan Johnson: recent opponents high-K: ATH 27%, BAL 26%, SEA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
BOS @ LAA u8.0 (-105)
Ranger Suarez is elite (xERA 2.54) and in sharp recent form (1.56 recent ERA, HOT) facing a poor LAA offense vs LHP (wRC+ 65). BOS offense is below average vs RHP (wRC+ 84). Ryan Johnson is struggling acutely (recent ERA 9.00) but the market already accounts for that with the low total of 8.0 — and both bullpens are solid (BOS 3.76 xERA, LAA 3.69 xERA). Suarez limits LAA bats heavily; even with Johnson struggling, BOS offense is cold too. The primary under driver is Suarez dominating a poor LAA lineup at a neutral park. Total of 8.0 appears slightly generous given Suarez's elite form and LAA's woeful offense vs LHP.
Ranger Suarez o6.5 Ks (+118)
Suarez has elite K% (29.3%) and is in hot recent form averaging 6.0 K/start recently. The flag notes recent Ks came vs high-K opponents (SEA 26%, COL 25%, WSN 30%) — but LAA also has a 23.9% K rate vs LHP, not far behind those. Adjusted expectation still sits around 6.0-6.5 Ks. The line is 6.5 at +118 — excellent value for a pitcher this good against a strikeout-prone-enough lineup. BOS bullpen is fresh which could be a short-leash concern, but Suarez's 6.2 IP/gs average and deep recent pitch counts suggest he'll get the opportunities. The +118 price makes this a clear value play even accounting for the slight downward calibration.