AI Picks · 6 Bets · Jul 6
PHI @ KCR u8.0 (-105)
C. Sanchez has an elite xERA of 2.39 and solid recent form (3.46 recent ERA, with the 5ER outing flagged as a skewing outlier). Avg 6.0 K/start and 6.0 IP/gs means he'll eat innings. PHI offense vs LHP is poor (wRC+ 60 — the worst offensive L12 split among all matchups today). KCR offense vs LHP is also poor (wRC+ 74). Both offenses are cold against southpaws. The total of 8.0 accounts for Noah Cameron's high xERA (7.13) and poor season ERA (9.22), but his recent form is actually hot (4.17 recent ERA, including a clean 6IP/0ER start vs MIN). PHI bullpen xERA 3.64 is solid. KCR bullpen is shaky (xERA 4.83) but if Sanchez limits KCR scoring through 6, the total stays manageable. Two cold offenses vs LHPs at a slightly hitter-friendly but not extreme park (APF 104) — the under has edge here.
Found at 7:48 AM ET
C. Sanchez o6.5 Ks (-113)
Sanchez averages 6.0 K/start over recent starts and carries a 26.7% K rate. KCR vs LHP has a 24.4% K rate — above the league average — making this a favorable strikeout matchup. His best recent start shows a 10K performance, and even in his average starts he's at 5-6 Ks. The 6.5 line is right at his average, but with a high-K lineup, adjusted expectation is 6.5-7.5. At -113, this clears the pricing threshold. Flag: PHI bullpen is fresh and manager may hook Sanchez early — a legitimate concern. However, Sanchez at 6.0 IP/gs avg should get enough innings. This is a borderline play — proceed only at -113 or better.
Found at 7:48 AM ET
Cam Schlittler o6.5 Ks (+121)
Schlittler is elite on Ks with a 39.7% K rate — among the highest of any starter in today's slate. Recent avg 8.3 K/start over 3 starts (13K, 7K, 5K). Adjustment for today's opponent: TBR vs RHP has only 16.1% K rate (low), which could temper expectations somewhat. However, even calibrating down from 8.3 by ~1.5 Ks for a low-K lineup, adjusted expectation is ~6.8 Ks — above the 6.5 line. Crucially, the +121 price is excellent value; the market appears to be anchoring on TBR's contact ability, but Schlittler's raw K rate is so high (39.7%) that even vs a contact-oriented lineup he should comfortably threaten 6.5. His avg is 5.1 IP/gs vs TBR historically with 7.0 K/gs, and Outs O/U 17.5 at -165 implies the market expects a lengthy enough outing to pile up Ks. This is a best-price opportunity at +121 with strong underlying matchup.
Found at 7:48 AM ET
Dustin May o4.5 Ks (+120)
May is absolutely scorching right now: recent ERA 1.34, averaging 8.0 K/start over his last 3 starts (9K, 6K, 9K). His K rate is 24.0%. MIL vs RHP has a 25.0% K rate — above average, making this a favorable strikeout environment. The concern is May's avg IP/gs is only 3.9 and his last start was flagged at only 34 pitches — possible injury concern or extreme early hook. If he exits early, he won't accumulate Ks. However, the 4.5 line is low given his 8.0 K/start average. Even in a short 4-5 inning outing, he's averaging enough Ks to surpass 4.5. Adjusted expectation vs MIL's K rate: 6-7 Ks. At +120 this is excellent value even accounting for the short-outing risk. The MIL bullpen flag (elevated, manager likely to leave May in longer) actually supports more innings today.
Found at 7:48 AM ET
LAD Team Total o5.5 (-118)
LAD offense vs LHP is historically elite (wRC+ 199 in L12 — the highest of any matchup today). Kyle Freeland has a brutal matchup: 7.50 ERA vs LAD in 3 career starts, 8.80 ERA at Dodger Stadium specifically, and recent ERA of 5.72 (struggling). His xERA is 3.50 but recent form doesn't support relying on that. Dodger Stadium APF 103 is slightly hitter-friendly. LAD is averaging 9.2 RS in their last 10 games in Lauer's starts, and 9.5 at home. Even accounting for Eric Lauer being the LAD starter (meaning LAD's own SP quality isn't the issue here — this is purely an offensive edge vs the opposing starter), the 5.5 team total is easily cleared by an offense this dominant vs this vulnerable pitcher.
Found at 7:48 AM ET
LAD -1.5 (-110)
Compound edge: LAD has elite offense vs LHP (wRC+ 199), Freeland is struggling vs this team historically (7.50 ERA in 3 starts, 8.80 at this park), and while Lauer's xERA is 3.98 (average), COL's L12 wRC+ vs LHP is 123 — dangerous but not elite. LAD's bullpen xERA 4.01 is average but their ERA (3.06) is solid; COL bullpen xERA 4.53 is worse. LAD trending 7-3 L10 and 5-0 in recent starts with 9.2 RS avg — at -110 on the spread (not -180 ML) this represents genuine value. WSN bullpen disqualifies full-game considerations in some games but here LAD's own starting edge is minimal — still the offensive dominance angle is so strong the spread is better value than the ML.
Found at 7:48 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
PHI @ 
KCR✓2:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumHitter Friendly
PHI @ KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
C. Sanchez L
xERA2.39 (elite)K%26.7 (good)HH%42.0 (below avg)Barrel%6.0 (good)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs92BB%5.3
KCR vs LHP
wRC+74 (poor)K%24.4 (below avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Noah Cameron L
xERA7.13 (poor)K%14.7 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)Barrel%7.4 (good)ERA9.22IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs8.3PC/gs101BB%10.7
PHI vs LHP
wRC+60 (poor)K%31.4 (poor)HH%46.0 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-205-1.5 (-123)O8.0 (-114)KCR+178+1.5 (+106)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-190-0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-106)KCR+154+0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPHIO4.5 (-118)U4.5 (+105)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)KCRO3.5 (+124)U2.5 (+120)O1.5 (-105)U1.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UC. Sanchez6.5 (-113 / -107)19.5 (-112 / +101)Noah Cameron5.5 (+132 / +125)16.5 (-118 / -105)
C. Sanchez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30vs 
W7.09293200
W7.09293200Jun 25@ 
W5.09267155
W5.09267155Jun 20vs 
W6.09155111
W6.09155111Jun 14@ 
L5.29838144
L5.29838144Jun 8@ 
W7.0107104122
W7.0107104122Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30vs 
L3.28609366
L3.28609366Jun 24@ L5.010858355
L5.010858355Jun 18vs 
W5.010868234
W5.010868234Jun 13vs 
L4.18617044
L4.18617044Jun 7@ 
W6.010473001
W6.010473001SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI7.02.577.04.01.0(1)
home starts4.19.512.38.01.7(3)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 1-1 vs KCR this season (2 games).
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 4-1 in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 4-1 in C. Sanchez's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 7.6 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 4.8 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 1-1 vs PHI this season (2 games).
- KCR are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Noah Cameron's last 5 home starts.
- KCR average 6.8 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 5.0 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 5.332d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
KCR
xERA 4.83 (below avg)ERA 7.742d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph ENE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- PHI bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PHI — C. Sanchez: 2026-06-25: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- KCR — Noah Cameron: recent opponents low-K: TBR 18%, TBR 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
PHI @ KCR u8.0 (-105)
C. Sanchez has an elite xERA of 2.39 and solid recent form (3.46 recent ERA, with the 5ER outing flagged as a skewing outlier). Avg 6.0 K/start and 6.0 IP/gs means he'll eat innings. PHI offense vs LHP is poor (wRC+ 60 — the worst offensive L12 split among all matchups today). KCR offense vs LHP is also poor (wRC+ 74). Both offenses are cold against southpaws. The total of 8.0 accounts for Noah Cameron's high xERA (7.13) and poor season ERA (9.22), but his recent form is actually hot (4.17 recent ERA, including a clean 6IP/0ER start vs MIN). PHI bullpen xERA 3.64 is solid. KCR bullpen is shaky (xERA 4.83) but if Sanchez limits KCR scoring through 6, the total stays manageable. Two cold offenses vs LHPs at a slightly hitter-friendly but not extreme park (APF 104) — the under has edge here.
C. Sanchez o6.5 Ks (-113)
Sanchez averages 6.0 K/start over recent starts and carries a 26.7% K rate. KCR vs LHP has a 24.4% K rate — above the league average — making this a favorable strikeout matchup. His best recent start shows a 10K performance, and even in his average starts he's at 5-6 Ks. The 6.5 line is right at his average, but with a high-K lineup, adjusted expectation is 6.5-7.5. At -113, this clears the pricing threshold. Flag: PHI bullpen is fresh and manager may hook Sanchez early — a legitimate concern. However, Sanchez at 6.0 IP/gs avg should get enough innings. This is a borderline play — proceed only at -113 or better.
NYY @ TBR✓6:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
NYY @ TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Cam Schlittler R
xERA4.26 (avg)K%39.7 (elite)HH%44.4 (below avg)Barrel%22.2 (poor)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs91BB%4.4
TBR vs RHP
wRC+146 (elite)K%16.1 (above avg)HH%38.2 (avg)
Griffin Jax R
xERA5.87 (poor)K%26.6 (good)HH%45.5 (poor)Barrel%13.6 (below avg)ERA2.81IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs76BB%3.1
NYY vs RHP
wRC+47 (poor)K%28.2 (poor)HH%42.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-102-1.5 (+170)O7.5 (+100)TBR-115+1.5 (-188)U7.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-114-0.5 (+125)O3.5 (-122)TBR-110+0.5 (-164)U3.5 (-106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYYO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (-110)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)TBRO3.5 (-111)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCam Schlittler6.5 (+121 / -140)17.5 (-165 / +124)Griffin Jax5.5 (-102 / -125)15.5 (+125 / +144)
Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30vs 
L4.08557166
L4.08557166Jun 25@ 
L5.09295204
L5.09295204Jun 19vs 
W6.096134000
W6.096134000Jun 13@ W7.010176411
W7.010176411Jun 7vs W5.29254111
W5.29254111Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30@ W6.07155033
W6.07155033Jun 24vs W5.08875202
W5.08875202Jun 19vs W5.06954022
W5.06954022Jun 13@ 
L5.06355001
L5.06355001Jun 7@ 
L5.06243200
L5.06243200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cam Schlittler
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.13.537.05.02.3(3)
at TBR5.62.418.04.01.5(2)
Griffin Jax
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY—
home starts4.75.145.75.31.0(3)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 1-5 vs TBR this season (6 games).
- NYY are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 4.0 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 5.8 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 5-1 vs NYY this season (6 games).
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 4-1 in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 5.6 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 2.37 (elite)ERA 1.622d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.472d stress Normal (5.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Dome
Dome
Flags · 8
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: Barrel% 22% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- TBR — Griffin Jax: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TBR — Griffin Jax: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- NYY bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: 2026-06-30: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TBR — Griffin Jax: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TBR — Griffin Jax: recent opponents high-K: KCR 27%, KCR 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
Cam Schlittler o6.5 Ks (+121)
Schlittler is elite on Ks with a 39.7% K rate — among the highest of any starter in today's slate. Recent avg 8.3 K/start over 3 starts (13K, 7K, 5K). Adjustment for today's opponent: TBR vs RHP has only 16.1% K rate (low), which could temper expectations somewhat. However, even calibrating down from 8.3 by ~1.5 Ks for a low-K lineup, adjusted expectation is ~6.8 Ks — above the 6.5 line. Crucially, the +121 price is excellent value; the market appears to be anchoring on TBR's contact ability, but Schlittler's raw K rate is so high (39.7%) that even vs a contact-oriented lineup he should comfortably threaten 6.5. His avg is 5.1 IP/gs vs TBR historically with 7.0 K/gs, and Outs O/U 17.5 at -165 implies the market expects a lengthy enough outing to pile up Ks. This is a best-price opportunity at +121 with strong underlying matchup.
HOU @ WSN6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHot
HOU @ WSNMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mike Burrows R
xERA3.53 (good)K%14.6 (below avg)HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%5.4 (good)ERA3.75IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs63BB%6.2
WSN vs RHP
wRC+150 (elite)K%22.5 (avg)HH%42.4 (above avg)
Miles Mikolas R
xERA4.39 (avg)K%8.3 (poor)HH%36.9 (avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA6.06IP/gs16.3 IP/gsH/gs23.0PC/gs81BB%1.4
HOU vs RHP
wRC+98 (avg)K%22.3 (avg)HH%33.6 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+102-1.5 (+155)O10.0 (-114)WSN-120-1.5 (+153)U10.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU+100+0.5 (-138)O5.5 (-106)WSN-120-0.5 (+106)U5.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UHOUO4.5 (-128)U4.5 (+105)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)WSNO4.5 (-138)U4.5 (+114)O2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMike Burrows3.5 (-160 / +129)16.5 (-106 / -122)Miles Mikolas3.5 (+118 / -147)—
Mike Burrows · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30vs W5.09036244
W5.09036244Jun 24@ W6.09332111
W6.09332111Jun 19vs 
W1.0*711000
W1.0*711000Jun 13@ W5.09257245
W5.09257245Jun 7vs 
L5.09738245
L5.09738245Miles Mikolas · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 29@ L7.09739066
L7.09739066Jun 24vs L3.1*6015002
L3.1*6015002Jun 19@ L6.0*8529155
L6.0*8529155Jun 14vs 
W7.0*8333000
W7.0*8333000Jun 8@ 
W4.2*5423000
W4.2*5423000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mike Burrows
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN4.16.596.05.01.0(1)
at WSN4.16.596.05.01.0(1)
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 3-2 in Mike Burrows's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 4-1 in Mike Burrows's last 5 away starts.
- HOU average 4.6 runs/game in Mike Burrows's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 5.2 runs/game in Mike Burrows's last 5 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 3-2 in Miles Mikolas's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 in Miles Mikolas's last 3 home starts.
- WSN average 6.8 runs/game in Miles Mikolas's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 7.3 runs/game in Miles Mikolas's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 2.81 (elite)ERA 2.472d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
WSN
xERA 5.18 (below avg)ERA 6.752d stress Stressed (14.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph ENE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.18 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- HOU bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WSN bullpen stressed (14.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- HOU — Mike Burrows: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-19 — may affect pitch count or availability
- HOU — Mike Burrows: 2026-06-13: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WSN — Miles Mikolas: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-24, 2026-06-19 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WSN — Miles Mikolas: 2026-06-29: 6 ER in 7.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
WSN bullpen xERA of 5.18 is a disqualifying factor for full-game side bets on WSN. Mike Burrows is in recent struggle (7.20 ERA over last 3, significantly above xERA 3.53). Miles Mikolas has no at-home or vs-HOU matchup data and his ERA (6.06) vs xERA (4.39) suggests some bad luck but he's also had recent skewing outings. The over at 10.0 is tempting given WSN's wRC+ 150 and the bad bullpen, but the total is already elevated at 10.0 — the market has priced this in.
NYM @ 
ATL7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
NYM @ ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Freddy Peralta R
xERA3.36 (good)K%16.9 (below avg)HH%38.8 (avg)Barrel%2.0 (elite)ERA10.95IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs90BB%7.7
ATL vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%19.2 (above avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
Reynaldo Lopez R
xERA3.31 (good)K%24.4 (good)HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA1.64IP/gs5.5 IP/gsH/gs3.5PC/gs61BB%4.9
NYM vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%21.8 (avg)HH%46.4 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+110+1.5 (-180)O9.0 (+101)ATL-130-1.5 (+158)U9.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM-102+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-130)ATL-120-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYMO4.5 (+110)U3.5 (+114)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)ATLO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFreddy Peralta5.5 (+129 / +122)16.5 (-115 / +104)Reynaldo Lopez4.5 (-102 / -125)15.5 (+122 / +124)
Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1@ L4.09147355
L4.09147355Jun 25vs 
L5.29855103
L5.29855103Jun 20@ L2.28021011010
L2.28021011010Jun 14vs W5.09024111
W5.09024111Jun 9vs L6.09856266
L6.09856266Reynaldo Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1vs W5.06962111
W5.06962111Jun 26@ W3.05714011
W3.05714011Jun 21vs L3.0*5831101
L3.0*5831101Jun 16vs L2.0*3011000
L2.0*3011000Jun 14@ L1.0*2410200
L1.0*2410200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.01.804.54.02.0(2)
at ATL5.01.807.04.03.0(1)
Reynaldo Lopez
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM—
home starts5.01.806.02.01.0(1)
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 3-3 vs ATL this season (6 games).
- NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 1-4 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-3 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 away starts.
- NYM average 3.4 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.8 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 3-3 vs NYM this season (6 games).
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 4-1 in Reynaldo Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-0 in Reynaldo Lopez's last 3 home starts.
- ATL average 5.0 runs/game in Reynaldo Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 5.7 runs/game in Reynaldo Lopez's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 4.06 (avg)ERA 4.972d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
ATL
xERA 2.77 (elite)ERA 2.742d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
81°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 4 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- ATL bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATL — Reynaldo Lopez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-21, 2026-06-16 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ATL — Reynaldo Lopez: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- ATL — Reynaldo Lopez: 2026-04-21: 4 ER in 1.0 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Freddy Peralta is in acute struggle (recent ERA 11.59 vs xERA 3.36 — recent ERA is 8+ runs above xERA, exceeding the 3-run disqualifying threshold). Reynaldo Lopez's recent starts are very short (1.0–3.0 IP, 24–58 pitches) — bullpen appearances skewing the data, with last start flagged at only 69 pitches; small sample concern. Both offenses are below average in L12 (NYM wRC+ 91, ATL wRC+ 83). ATL bullpen is elite (xERA 2.77) but the starter volatility on both sides creates too much uncertainty to bet the total or sides with confidence.
MIL @ STL✓7:45 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
MIL @ STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Shane Drohan L
xERA3.85 (avg)K%23.4 (good)HH%31.7 (good)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs89BB%10.9
STL vs LHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%43.5 (above avg)
Dustin May R
xERA4.04 (avg)K%24.0 (good)HH%41.2 (below avg)Barrel%8.8 (avg)ERA8.49IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs60BB%8.0
MIL vs RHP
wRC+122 (above avg)K%25.0 (below avg)HH%43.5 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-118-1.5 (+146)O8.0 (-108)STL+100+1.5 (-169)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-108+0.5 (-156)O4.5 (+100)STL-116-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
OverUnderMILO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+112)STLO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UShane Drohan4.5 (+124 / -156)Dustin May4.5 (+120 / +128)
Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1vs W5.27876122
W5.27876122Jun 24@ W4.19855300
W4.19855300Jun 18vs L5.09133311
L5.09133311Jun 13vs L5.07878044
L5.07878044Jun 7@ 
W6.18345133
W6.18345133Dustin May · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2@ W0.23415255
W0.23415255Jun 21@ W2.04426166
W2.04426166Jun 15vs 
W9.010191100
W9.010191100Jun 9@ W6.010164100
W6.010164100Jun 2vs 
L5.29095233
L5.29095233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dustin May
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL7.01.299.02.00.0(1)
home starts6.43.268.34.01.7(3)
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 4-2 vs STL this season (6 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-1 in Shane Drohan's last 3 away starts.
- MIL average 6.4 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 6.0 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 3 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 2-4 vs MIL this season (6 games).
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 4-1 in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in Dustin May's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 7.4 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.0 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.75 (avg)ERA 3.242d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
STL
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 3.832d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
88°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 7 mph NNE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- STL — Dustin May: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- MIL bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIL — Shane Drohan: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- STL — Dustin May: last start: 34 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- STL — Dustin May: high-K outing 2026-06-15 (9 Ks vs avg 4.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
Dustin May o4.5 Ks (+120)
May is absolutely scorching right now: recent ERA 1.34, averaging 8.0 K/start over his last 3 starts (9K, 6K, 9K). His K rate is 24.0%. MIL vs RHP has a 25.0% K rate — above average, making this a favorable strikeout environment. The concern is May's avg IP/gs is only 3.9 and his last start was flagged at only 34 pitches — possible injury concern or extreme early hook. If he exits early, he won't accumulate Ks. However, the 4.5 line is low given his 8.0 K/start average. Even in a short 4-5 inning outing, he's averaging enough Ks to surpass 4.5. Adjusted expectation vs MIL's K rate: 6-7 Ks. At +120 this is excellent value even accounting for the short-outing risk. The MIL bullpen flag (elevated, manager likely to leave May in longer) actually supports more innings today.
ARI @ SDP9:40 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
ARI @ SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Brandon Pfaadt R
xERA4.17 (avg)K%16.7 (below avg)HH%34.6 (good)Barrel%19.2 (poor)ERA4.50IP/gs8.0 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs45BB%8.3
SDP vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%22.8 (avg)HH%35.9 (avg)
Walker Buehler R
xERA3.10 (good)K%28.1 (elite)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%15.8 (poor)ERA6.75IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs82BB%12.5
ARI vs RHP
wRC+71 (poor)K%15.8 (elite)HH%36.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI-104-1.5 (+161)O8.5 (-110)SDP-112+1.5 (-188)U8.5 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-120-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-135)SDP-104+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderARIO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-140)SDPO4.5 (+110)U3.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Pfaadt3.5 (-113 / -106)14.5 (-150 / +114)Walker Buehler3.5 (-163 / +132)15.5 (+105 / -139)
Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30vs W5.16623111
W5.16623111Jun 3vs 
L1.0*3713222
L1.0*3713222May 29@ L1.2*3133011
L1.2*3133011May 23vs W1.2*2302011
W1.2*2302011May 20vs W1.0*900000
W1.0*900000Walker Buehler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1@ L4.08567499
L4.08567499Jun 26vs W5.17453311
W5.17453311Jun 20@ W5.18775111
W5.18775111Jun 14@ 
W5.08656011
W5.08656011Jun 8vs W4.28648211
W4.28648211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Pfaadt
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP4.68.804.55.51.5(2)
at SDP6.06.754.55.00.0(2)
Walker Buehler
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI—
home starts4.82.503.74.71.7(3)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 1-1 vs SDP this season (2 games).
- ARI are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 3-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 4 starts.
- ARI are 0-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 1 away starts.
- ARI average 6.0 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 4 starts.
- ARI average 3.0 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 1 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 1-1 vs ARI this season (2 games).
- SDP are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 4-1 in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 4-1 in Walker Buehler's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 5.4 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 4.6 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 3.702d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
SDP
xERA 4.33 (avg)ERA 7.162d stress Stressed (11.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
72°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph NW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: small sample (8.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: Barrel% 19% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- SDP — Walker Buehler: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- SDP — Walker Buehler: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- SDP bullpen stressed (11.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-03, 2026-05-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: last start: 66 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- SDP — Walker Buehler: 2026-07-01: 9 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 20) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Brandon Pfaadt has extremely alarming recent workload flags — only 1.0–1.7 IP per start across his last 3 outings (3 total starts for just 4.1 IP), suggesting bullpen use or injury concern; this makes full-game totals and side bets unreliable. While Buehler is hot (recent ERA 1.89), his ERA vs ARI has no data and SDP bullpen is stressed (xERA 4.33, ERA 7.16 — disqualifies full-game side bets). No clean bet type emerges with confidence.
TOR @ SFG9:45 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
TOR @ SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kevin Gausman R
xERA6.04 (poor)K%20.0 (avg)HH%58.3 (poor)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA9.00IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs88BB%11.4
SFG vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%20.8 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)
Landen Roupp R
xERA3.21 (good)K%25.0 (good)HH%26.2 (elite)Barrel%4.8 (elite)ERA6.14IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs97BB%11.8
TOR vs RHP
wRC+72 (poor)K%23.1 (avg)HH%34.9 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-110-1.5 (+152)O7.5 (-114)SFG-105+1.5 (-175)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-106+0.5 (-156)O4.5 (+110)SFG-118-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
OverUnderTORO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+105)SFGO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (-111)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKevin Gausman5.5 (+110 / -125)17.5 (-151 / +124)Landen Roupp4.5 (-143 / +114)17.5 (-105 / +108)
Kevin Gausman · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30vs L6.09675211
L6.09675211Jun 25vs L6.099410266
L6.099410266Jun 19@ L2.06837477
L2.06837477Jun 13vs L7.010571211
L7.010571211Jun 7vs W5.09355044
W5.09355044Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30@ L2.28445666
L2.28445666Jun 25vs L6.010866122
L6.010866122Jun 19@ L6.09877122
L6.09877122Jun 12vs L4.210554244
L4.210554244Jun 6@ L5.29853311
L5.29853311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR—
home starts5.14.746.05.71.3(3)
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 1-4 in Kevin Gausman's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 1-4 in Kevin Gausman's last 5 away starts.
- TOR average 2.8 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 2.6 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 0-5 in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 2.8 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 3.6 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 2.93 (elite)ERA 2.942d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
SFG
xERA 4.02 (avg)ERA 6.622d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Windy
59°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 15 mph WNW
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- TOR — Kevin Gausman: HH% 58% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TOR — Kevin Gausman: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- SFG — Landen Roupp: 2026-06-30: 6 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 25) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SFG — Landen Roupp: recent opponents low-K: MIA 18%, ARI 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 15 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
AI Analysis
Kevin Gausman is in serious trouble: xERA 6.04 (poor), recent ERA 7.71, HH% 58%, and the game has a wind-blowing-out 15mph weather flag — a direct disqualifying factor per guidelines for total bets. The over would be a natural lean given Gausman's collapse and the wind, but the weather flag eliminates the total. TOR's offense is poor (wRC+ 72) so a side bet on SFG is undermined by their own weak run support (avg 2.8 RS in recent starts, 0-5 in last 5 SP starts).
COL @ LAD✓10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumNeutral Conditions
COL @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kyle Freeland L
xERA3.50 (good)K%25.0 (good)HH%38.2 (avg)Barrel%16.4 (poor)ERA4.91IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs82BB%2.6
LAD vs LHP
wRC+199 (elite)K%19.9 (above avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Eric Lauer L
xERA3.98 (avg)K%10.7 (poor)HH%25.4 (elite)Barrel%13.6 (below avg)ERA3.00IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs7.5PC/gs91BB%9.3
COL vs LHP
wRC+123 (above avg)K%25.3 (below avg)HH%28.8 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+179+1.5 (-108)O10.5 (-105)LAD-210-1.5 (-110)U10.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+152+0.5 (+108)O5.5 (-130)LAD-196-0.5 (-140)U5.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderCOLO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-135)LADO5.5 (-118)U5.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Freeland4.5 (+128 / -151)16.5 (-107 / -120)Eric Lauer4.5 (+102 / -130)17.5 (-122 / -108)
Kyle Freeland · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1vs W5.08576122
W5.08576122Jun 24vs W6.081411166
W6.081411166Jun 19vs W7.18184022
W7.18184022Jun 13@ L5.295410066
L5.295410066Jun 7vs L5.08927133
L5.08927133Eric Lauer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 29@ W6.09529133
W6.09529133Jun 22@ W6.0*8420300
W6.0*8420300Jun 15vs W6.09346333
W6.09346333Jun 9@ W5.28953022
W5.28953022Jun 2@ W4.27015122
W4.27015122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Freeland
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD4.47.504.78.00.7(3)
at LAD4.68.804.59.00.5(2)
Eric Lauer
IPERAKHBB
vs COL6.01.504.05.51.0(2)
home starts6.03.004.05.02.0(2)
Trends · COL
- COL are 2-5 vs LAD this season (7 games).
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 3-2 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-4 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 5.4 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL average 5.0 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 5-2 vs COL this season (7 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 5-0 in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-0 in Eric Lauer's last 2 home starts.
- LAD average 9.2 runs/game in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 9.5 runs/game in Eric Lauer's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.53 (below avg)ERA 4.642d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
LAD
xERA 4.01 (avg)ERA 3.062d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph WSW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- COL — Kyle Freeland: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAD — Eric Lauer: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- COL — Kyle Freeland: 2026-06-24: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAD — Eric Lauer: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
LAD Team Total o5.5 (-118)
LAD offense vs LHP is historically elite (wRC+ 199 in L12 — the highest of any matchup today). Kyle Freeland has a brutal matchup: 7.50 ERA vs LAD in 3 career starts, 8.80 ERA at Dodger Stadium specifically, and recent ERA of 5.72 (struggling). His xERA is 3.50 but recent form doesn't support relying on that. Dodger Stadium APF 103 is slightly hitter-friendly. LAD is averaging 9.2 RS in their last 10 games in Lauer's starts, and 9.5 at home. Even accounting for Eric Lauer being the LAD starter (meaning LAD's own SP quality isn't the issue here — this is purely an offensive edge vs the opposing starter), the 5.5 team total is easily cleared by an offense this dominant vs this vulnerable pitcher.
LAD -1.5 (-110)
Compound edge: LAD has elite offense vs LHP (wRC+ 199), Freeland is struggling vs this team historically (7.50 ERA in 3 starts, 8.80 at this park), and while Lauer's xERA is 3.98 (average), COL's L12 wRC+ vs LHP is 123 — dangerous but not elite. LAD's bullpen xERA 4.01 is average but their ERA (3.06) is solid; COL bullpen xERA 4.53 is worse. LAD trending 7-3 L10 and 5-0 in recent starts with 9.2 RS avg — at -110 on the spread (not -180 ML) this represents genuine value. WSN bullpen disqualifies full-game considerations in some games but here LAD's own starting edge is minimal — still the offensive dominance angle is so strong the spread is better value than the ML.