MLB Game Overviews

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Updated 23:33 UTC · Odds Updated 23:31 UTC

AI Picks · 15 Bets · Jul 22
DET @ CHC F5 u4.5 (-120)
Montero has a 2.29 xERA (elite) and has allowed 0 ER across all 3 recent starts, giving him a recent ERA of 0.00 — the dominant signal here. Though his IP are short (small sample / relief appearances), his stuff is clearly elite and he faces an avg CHC offense (wRC+ 104). On the other side, Rea's recent ERA is 1.79 HOT over his last 3 starts (15.1 IP, 3 ER) — he's been dominant into the 5th inning, and his home ERA sits at 2.80. DET offense is average (wRC+ 95 vs RHP). Both starters project to hold the opposing offense in the first 5. The CHC bullpen xERA is a disaster at 5.21, but that damage comes AFTER the 5th inning, making the F5 under the cleanest expression of this edge. The 4.5 line is fairly set, but with two cold offenses (both wRC+ ≤104) and two hot pitchers in the first 5, the under is the play. Note: Montero's short recent outings are a concern (bullpen appearances), so we are limiting to F5 only.
Found at 7:33 PM ET
Colin Rea o4.5 Ks (-104)
Rea's K% is 18.3% at the season level, but his last 3 starts averaged 4.0 K/start (5K, 4K, 3K). DET's offense strikes out at a 23.9% clip vs RHP — above average for a contact-oriented team. The CHC bullpen flags suggest the manager will let Rea work deep, and with both bullpens stressed, Rea could pitch into the 6th or 7th inning. Calibrating: Rea's recent opponents (SDP, MIL, TOR) tend to strike out at roughly average rates, and DET's 23.9% K rate is in that range. At -104, we're getting nearly even money on a line that his recent avg (4.0 K/start) basically matches — but with the extra-innings buffer from a likely deep outing and a K-capable opponent, this edges over the line. Acceptable price; not a strong lean but good value at near-even odds.
Found at 7:33 PM ET
TEX Team Total o4.5 (+120)
Tyler Alexander is a NO STATS starter — a disqualifying factor for any pitcher-dependent bet on TEX's side. However, the OFFENSIVE edge here is unmistakable: TEX's wRC+ vs LHP is an elite 130 in the last 12 games. Anthony Kay walks 12.7% of batters (elevated), has a xERA of 4.16 (average), and his recent 'hot' ERA of 2.73 was built against CLE (twice) and KCR — all lower-K, less dangerous lineups than TEX. The flag explicitly notes 'recent opponents low-K; today's lineup may be tougher.' TEX K% is 32.0% vs LHP, which ironically means they swing hard and make loud contact when they DO connect. A +120 price on TEX Team Total Over 4.5 is excellent value for an elite offense facing a shaky command LHP. We are NOT betting a full-game side because Alexander is unknown (disqualifying for that side). CHW bullpen xERA is 3.26 (strong) which could suppress TEX in the late innings — but 4.5 is a low bar for an elite LHP-facing offense.
Found at 7:33 PM ET
Peter Lambert u17.5 Outs (+100)
Lambert's xERA is elite (1.85) and his season ERA is a remarkable 1.02, but his recent ERA has jumped to 3.70 over his last 3 starts — a clear STRUGGLING signal. Critically, his last two starts were cut short: 5.2 IP vs TBR (90pc), 5.2 IP vs MIN (100pc — high pitch count), and 4.2 IP vs TOR (92pc). His avg recent IP is ~5.4, meaning 17.5 outs = 5.83 IP, which is above what he has been producing recently. He has a 104-pitch outing just last start, likely placing him on a shorter leash today. MIA's offense is hot in L12 (wRC+ 123 vs RHP), features just 20.7% K rate (good contact team), and HH% of 38.9% — they will put balls in play and stress Lambert. At +100 (even money), this is an excellent price for an under that his recent avg IP does not support reaching.
Found at 7:33 PM ET
MIA @ HOU o8.0 (-115)
Multiple over signals converge here. (1) Lambert is STRUGGLING recently (3.70 ERA last 3 starts) despite an elite xERA, and his ERA << xERA gap (1.02 ERA vs 1.85 xERA) means the market may be overconfident in his ability to suppress runs. (2) Alcantara's recent ERA is 3.25 (above his elite xERA of 2.38), suggesting he's not at his sharpest — his lone start vs HOU went for a 7.71 ERA. (3) BOTH offenses are dangerous: MIA wRC+ 123 and HOU wRC+ 137 (elite) in L12. (4) MIA's bullpen is poor (xERA 4.47, ERA 5.40) — once both starters exit, the gates open. HOU's bullpen is solid (xERA 3.41) but MIA's pen will bleed runs in the back half. (5) CHC/HOU home avg RS of 3.4 runs in Lambert's recent starts is low, but that reflects the early-season dominant ERA that is now regressing. The combination of two struggling pitchers (recent trend), two hot offenses, and a leaky MIA bullpen makes 8.0 a reasonable over target, especially at -115 which is just barely over the standard vig.
Found at 7:33 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
MIL F5 ML (-145)
Logan Henderson is flat-out excellent: xERA 2.58 (elite), recent ERA 1.80 (hot), consistent 5+ IP per start, 6+ Ks per start. His home ERA is 1.80 in 3 starts. NYM's wRC+ vs RHP is 138 (elite offense) which is the concern, but Henderson has been suffocating lately. NYM starter Christian Scott is struggling acutely (recent ERA 6.59 — STRUGGLING flag) with Barrel% 12% and last start only 79 pitches. MIL offense wRC+ 98 vs RHP (avg) but Henderson's dominance is the primary edge here. The F5 bet isolates Henderson's excellence before NYM's dangerous bullpen comes into play. WARNING: -145 is near the pricing limit.
Found at 5:58 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider MIL F5 Spread -0.5 at +100 for better value
SFG @ KCR o8.5 (-111)
Both starters are struggling right now: Landen Roupp has a recent 3-start ERA of 6.34 despite a decent xERA (3.44), and Seth Lugo is in acute distress with a recent ERA of 9.54 and a poor xERA of 5.69 — this is genuine bad pitching, not just bad luck. Lugo's season ERA (5.65) nearly matches his xERA (5.69), confirming this is a legitimately poor pitcher right now. KCR's bullpen is atrocious (xERA 5.37, ERA 6.15). SFG's bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.19) which is the counter-signal, but KCR's pen being historically bad means the back half of this game is still vulnerable. KCR offense vs RHP is strong (wRC+ 126). SFG is averaging 5.6 RS in SP starts. Over 8.5 at -111 is reasonable given both starters are demonstrably struggling and one bullpen is a disaster.
Found at 11:26 AM ET
WSN @ COL o11.5 (-104)
Coors Field (APF 117) is the most extreme hitter's park in baseball. WSN offense wRC+ 155 (elite) with K% only 16% — they make contact and put balls in play, a devastating combination at altitude. COL offense is below avg but Coors inflates everyone. Gabriel Hughes is struggling recently (recent ERA 4.05, 3 IP in last start with only 53 pitches — short hook). Cade Cavalli's HH% is 49% with xERA 3.58 — solid but hittable. WSN bullpen xERA 5.06 is a major leak. COL bullpen xERA 4.05 — not strong. WSN is averaging 8.8 RS in recent starts and 8.4 on the road. Both starters project as shakier than the 11.5 total implies, and Coors amplifies everything. The total is already elevated but the structural factors still support the over at -104.
Found at 5:58 AM ET
WSN Team Total o6.5 (+105)
Coors Field (APF 116) is the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, and WSN brings the most dangerous lineup on the slate vs RHP (wRC+ 147 in L12, K% just 17.5%). Gabriel Hughes is struggling recently (4.05 ERA last 3 starts) despite an elite xERA, and has a very short recent outing (53 pitches vs SFG suggesting possible health concern). WSN's bullpen is poor (xERA 5.32) which is a disqualifying factor for ML bets, but the team total is independent of WSN's own pitching. WSN is averaging 8.8 RS in SP's recent starts and 8.4 away. The combination of Coors, elite WSN offense, and a struggling/potentially limited Hughes makes Over 6.5 at +105 attractive. WSN's own pen being bad doesn't reduce their run-scoring ability.
Found at 11:26 AM ET
Gage Jump Ks o4.5 (+110)
Jump's K% is 26.2% — a strong strikeout rate. In his recent starts his Ks were 1 (vs MIA, flat day — flagged as outlier), 5 (vs LAD), 9 (vs SFG). Ignoring the flat outlier, his typical output is 5-9 Ks. ARI's wRC+ vs LHP is 96 with K% 21.1% — average strikeout rate, not a contact-heavy team so no major downward calibration needed. Average K/start over last 3 is listed as 5.0. The Chase Field roof is closed (neutral environment). At +110, the line of 4.5 looks beatable — Jump projects around 5+ Ks in a normal start. Manager note shows ATH bullpen elevated meaning Jump may pitch deeper, increasing K accumulation opportunities.
Found at 5:58 AM ET
PIT @ NYY o9.5 (+101)
Game 1 of the doubleheader. Both starters are high-risk: Mitch Keller has xERA 6.94 (poor), HH% 50%, Barrel% 13.5%, and was historically demolished at Yankee Stadium (19.69 ERA in his only prior start there). Gerrit Cole xERA 3.22 (good on paper) but recent ERA 6.97 (struggling acutely), HH% 49%, Barrel% 13% — both flags blaring. PIT bullpen xERA 5.24 (poor). PIT offense is ELITE vs RHP at wRC+ 137. NYY wRC+ 108. Both bullpens are strained from usage (both flags elevated, 4-5 IP used yesterday). Yankee Stadium APF 104 tilts offensive. Multiple over signals align: both starters struggling, both with elevated contact/barrel rates, weak PIT pen, pitcher park factor >100. At +101, excellent value.
Found at 5:58 AM ET
PIT Team Total o3.5 (-120)
PIT vs LHP: wRC+ 163 in L12 — this is the hottest left-handed offense split on the slate. Max Fried is returning from a 70-day layoff, threw only 61 pitches last outing, carries a 6.91 ERA (vs 3.32 xERA — significant luck gap suggesting real struggles), and his home ERA is 6.04 in 3 starts. Wind blowing out 16mph at Yankee Stadium amplifies PIT's elite offense. This is a pure offensive edge play — betting PIT scores regardless of Chandler's performance. -120 is reasonable given the elite wRC+ matchup.
Found at 11:26 AM ET
BAL @ BOS u9.0 (+101)
Game 2 of the doubleheader. Kyle Bradish xERA 2.76 (elite), recent ERA 1.88 (hot), and his last two starts were dominant (8 IP/0 ER with 9K, then 7.2 IP/1 ER with 12K). Ranger Suarez xERA 2.60 (elite) and recent ERA 1.57 (hot, ignoring the skewed 3-ER start that was flagged as outlier at only 53 pitches — his other two starts were 1 ER combined). Both bullpens are strong: BAL xERA 2.49, BOS xERA 2.05. Both offenses are average-to-above (BAL wRC+ 126 vs LHP, BOS wRC+ 112 vs RHP) but not overwhelming. The under signals stack: two elite starters both in hot form, two strong bullpens, and getting +101 on the under is essentially free money given the matchup quality. The note that Suarez may not be fully stretched out (17 days rest, flagged) could mean shorter outing but BOS pen is elite and would hold.
Found at 5:58 AM ET
ATL Team Total o4.5 (+116)
Martin Perez is a disaster on paper: xERA 7.19, ERA 7.43, BB% 14%, 17 days off, only 77 pitches last start — likely on a short leash. His home ERA is 5.36 across 3 starts. ATL's offense is ELITE vs RHP at wRC+ 160 with HH% 42%, the best lineup in this slate. Even with Perez's recent hot streak (2.98 ERA last 3), the regression risk is enormous given his xERA and walk rate. SDP pen is elite (xERA 2.00) so betting game total is trickier, but ATL's own team total at +116 isolates the offensive edge without relying on SDP runs. ATL scores in bunches when given a weak starter, and this matchup screams runs for Atlanta.
Found at 5:58 AM ET
SDP ML (+100)
Michael King has a clean 3.37 xERA (good), recent ERA 3.16 (consistent), and a 2.93 ERA in 2 starts vs ATL specifically — he knows this lineup. SDP's bullpen xERA is elite at 2.00. ATL's starter Martin Perez is a massive liability (xERA 7.19, 17 days off, 77 pitch last outing). The compound edge: SDP has the better pitcher AND the better bullpen. ATL's elite offense is the counterweight, but at +100 (even money) on the team with the better SP and pen, this is outstanding value — essentially a coin flip line when SDP holds clear structural advantages.
Found at 5:58 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
PIT @ NYY✓
1:05 PM · Yankee StadiumHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mitch Keller R
xERA6.94 (poor)K%12.5 (below avg)HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%13.5 (below avg)ERA6.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs77BB%4.7
NYY vs RHP
wRC+110 (avg)K%26.0 (below avg)HH%45.4 (elite)
Gerrit Cole R
xERA3.22 (good)K%30.0 (elite)HH%48.9 (poor)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs98BB%2.9
PIT vs RHP
wRC+123 (above avg)K%25.5 (below avg)HH%41.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+146+1.5 (-142)O9.5 (+101)NYY-170-1.5 (+120)U9.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+146+0.5 (+102)O5.5 (+104)NYY-184-0.5 (-132)U5.5 (-135)
Team Totals
OverUnderPITO3.5 (-145)U3.5 (+116)NYYO4.5 (-140)U4.5 (+118)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMitch Keller3.5 (-164 / +128)15.5 (+130 / -166)Gerrit Cole6.5 (-111 / -115)17.5 (-178 / +132)
Mitch Keller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ NYYW5.07563200
Jul 9vs ATLL3.07234233
Jul 3@ WSNL6.08318055
Jun 28vs CINW6.07945134
Jun 23vs SEAL6.09247133
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs PITL7.093114033
Jul 17vs LADL6.010384122
Jul 8@ TBRL6.19767133
Jul 3vs MINW5.08875022
Jun 27@ BOSL5.18957144
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mitch Keller
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY4.17.685.05.53.0(2)
at NYY5.00.006.03.02.0(1)
Gerrit Cole
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT7.03.8611.04.00.0(1)
home starts6.03.508.74.30.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 5.24 (below avg)ERA 3.932d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 4.09 (avg)ERA 3.282d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 10
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • NYY — Gerrit Cole: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • NYY — Gerrit Cole: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.24 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • PIT bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • NYY bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: 13 days since last start (2026-07-09) — may not be fully stretched out
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: last start: 72 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • NYY — Gerrit Cole: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
PIT @ NYY o9.5 (+101)
Game 1 of the doubleheader. Both starters are high-risk: Mitch Keller has xERA 6.94 (poor), HH% 50%, Barrel% 13.5%, and was historically demolished at Yankee Stadium (19.69 ERA in his only prior start there). Gerrit Cole xERA 3.22 (good on paper) but recent ERA 6.97 (struggling acutely), HH% 49%, Barrel% 13% — both flags blaring. PIT bullpen xERA 5.24 (poor). PIT offense is ELITE vs RHP at wRC+ 137. NYY wRC+ 108. Both bullpens are strained from usage (both flags elevated, 4-5 IP used yesterday). Yankee Stadium APF 104 tilts offensive. Multiple over signals align: both starters struggling, both with elevated contact/barrel rates, weak PIT pen, pitcher park factor >100. At +101, excellent value.
PIT Team Total o3.5 (-120)
PIT vs LHP: wRC+ 163 in L12 — this is the hottest left-handed offense split on the slate. Max Fried is returning from a 70-day layoff, threw only 61 pitches last outing, carries a 6.91 ERA (vs 3.32 xERA — significant luck gap suggesting real struggles), and his home ERA is 6.04 in 3 starts. Wind blowing out 16mph at Yankee Stadium amplifies PIT's elite offense. This is a pure offensive edge play — betting PIT scores regardless of Chandler's performance. -120 is reasonable given the elite wRC+ matchup.
BAL @ BOS✓
1:35 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Dean Kremer R
xERA4.76 (below avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%30.9 (good)Barrel%9.5 (avg)ERA4.20IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs87BB%8.3
BOS vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)
Jake Bennett L
xERA3.29 (good)K%17.6 (avg)HH%32.8 (good)Barrel%5.2 (good)ERA0.87IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs76BB%2.7
BAL vs LHP
wRC+135 (elite)K%27.0 (below avg)HH%42.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+122+1.5 (-171)O9.5 (+102)BOS-142-1.5 (+145)U9.0 (+101)
Team Totals
OverUnderBALO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-130)BOSO4.5 (-130)U4.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDean Kremer4.5 (-164 / +128)16.5 (-120 / -111)Jake Bennett5.5 (+125 / -157)17.5 (+103 / -137)
Dean Kremer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ BOSL6.08758166
Jul 17@ HOUW4.08354322
Jul 8vs CHCL5.09246144
Jul 1vs CHWW6.07944111
Apr 18@ CLEL6.09572233
Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs BALW5.28349033
Jul 17vs TBRW6.06531100
Jul 8@ CHWW7.08144100
Jul 3@ LAAW7.29265022
Jun 27vs NYYW6.18733211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dean Kremer
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.54.864.57.51.0(2)
at BOS5.54.864.57.51.0(2)
Jake Bennett
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL5.25.194.09.00.0(1)
home starts5.82.083.34.31.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.49 (elite)ERA 2.952d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 2.05 (elite)ERA 1.242d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
75°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph S
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • BAL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • BAL — Dean Kremer: 2026-07-08: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • BOS — Jake Bennett: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
BAL @ BOS u9.0 (+101)
Game 2 of the doubleheader. Kyle Bradish xERA 2.76 (elite), recent ERA 1.88 (hot), and his last two starts were dominant (8 IP/0 ER with 9K, then 7.2 IP/1 ER with 12K). Ranger Suarez xERA 2.60 (elite) and recent ERA 1.57 (hot, ignoring the skewed 3-ER start that was flagged as outlier at only 53 pitches — his other two starts were 1 ER combined). Both bullpens are strong: BAL xERA 2.49, BOS xERA 2.05. Both offenses are average-to-above (BAL wRC+ 126 vs LHP, BOS wRC+ 112 vs RHP) but not overwhelming. The under signals stack: two elite starters both in hot form, two strong bullpens, and getting +101 on the under is essentially free money given the matchup quality. The note that Suarez may not be fully stretched out (17 days rest, flagged) could mean shorter outing but BOS pen is elite and would hold.
SFG @ KCR✓
2:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Landen Roupp R
xERA3.44 (good)K%15.1 (below avg)HH%27.5 (elite)Barrel%5.9 (good)ERA3.57IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs97BB%15.1
KCR vs RHP
wRC+126 (above avg)K%20.9 (avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Seth Lugo R
xERA5.69 (poor)K%19.7 (avg)HH%48.9 (poor)Barrel%6.7 (good)ERA5.65IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs91BB%9.1
SFG vs RHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG-116-1.5 (+138)O9.0 (-110)KCR+100+1.5 (-163)U9.0 (-107)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG-120-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-128)KCR-104+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)KCRO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULanden Roupp5.5 (+122 / -154)17.5 (-132 / +104)Seth Lugo4.5 (-106 / -114)17.5 (-131 / +104)
Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ KCRL6.09174022
Jul 17@ SEAW7.09722300
Jul 6vs TORW8.010453211
Jun 30@ ARIL2.28445666
Jun 25vs ATHL6.010866122
Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs SFGW7.09453233
Jul 17vs SDPW6.09034212
Jul 12@ BALL4.08964222
Jul 7@ NYMW4.19449269
Jul 1vs TBRL6.08579033
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR6.03.007.04.00.0(1)
at KCR6.03.007.04.00.0(1)
Seth Lugo
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG7.03.865.03.02.0(1)
home starts6.33.325.05.31.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 2.19 (elite)ERA 2.892d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 5.37 (poor)ERA 6.152d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NNE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 7
  • SFG — Landen Roupp: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • KCR — Seth Lugo: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.37 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • SFG bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SFG — Landen Roupp: 2026-06-30: 6 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 25) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • SFG — Landen Roupp: recent opponents low-K: TOR 16%, SEA 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
  • KCR — Seth Lugo: 2026-07-07: 6 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SFG @ KCR o8.5 (-111)
Both starters are struggling right now: Landen Roupp has a recent 3-start ERA of 6.34 despite a decent xERA (3.44), and Seth Lugo is in acute distress with a recent ERA of 9.54 and a poor xERA of 5.69 — this is genuine bad pitching, not just bad luck. Lugo's season ERA (5.65) nearly matches his xERA (5.69), confirming this is a legitimately poor pitcher right now. KCR's bullpen is atrocious (xERA 5.37, ERA 6.15). SFG's bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.19) which is the counter-signal, but KCR's pen being historically bad means the back half of this game is still vulnerable. KCR offense vs RHP is strong (wRC+ 126). SFG is averaging 5.6 RS in SP starts. Over 8.5 at -111 is reasonable given both starters are demonstrably struggling and one bullpen is a disaster.
NYM @ MIL✓
2:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Christian Scott R
xERA2.49 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%12.1 (below avg)ERA1.84IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs86BB%8.8
MIL vs RHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%23.9 (avg)HH%41.8 (above avg)
Logan Henderson R
xERA2.58 (elite)K%26.3 (good)HH%40.5 (below avg)Barrel%5.4 (good)ERA2.35IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs76BB%7.0
NYM vs RHP
wRC+130 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+120+1.5 (-171)O7.5 (-110)MIL-138-1.5 (+150)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+120+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (+108)MIL-145-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYMO3.5 (-106)U3.5 (-120)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)MILO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+114)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChristian Scott5.5 (-118 / +100)15.5 (+122 / -161)Logan Henderson5.5 (-122 / +107)15.5 (+127 / -155)
Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ MILL3.28964333
Jul 16@ PHIW5.27973000
Jul 8vs KCRW5.09053100
Jul 3@ ATLL4.08272433
Jun 27vs PHIW4.18263222
Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs NYMW5.08095022
Jul 17vs MIAW5.07343011
Jul 9@ STLW5.17643133
May 22vs LADW5.08572300
May 16@ MINW5.08476111
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Christian Scott
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL3.28.446.04.03.0(1)
at MIL3.28.446.04.03.0(1)
Logan Henderson
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.03.609.05.00.0(1)
home starts5.01.806.73.31.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 5.05 (below avg)ERA 6.352d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 3.69 (good)ERA 4.722d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph NE
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 5
  • NYM — Christian Scott: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • NYM bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.05 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • MIL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • NYM — Christian Scott: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • MIL — Logan Henderson: last start: 73 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
MIL F5 ML (-145)
Logan Henderson is flat-out excellent: xERA 2.58 (elite), recent ERA 1.80 (hot), consistent 5+ IP per start, 6+ Ks per start. His home ERA is 1.80 in 3 starts. NYM's wRC+ vs RHP is 138 (elite offense) which is the concern, but Henderson has been suffocating lately. NYM starter Christian Scott is struggling acutely (recent ERA 6.59 — STRUGGLING flag) with Barrel% 12% and last start only 79 pitches. MIL offense wRC+ 98 vs RHP (avg) but Henderson's dominance is the primary edge here. The F5 bet isolates Henderson's excellence before NYM's dangerous bullpen comes into play. WARNING: -145 is near the pricing limit.
WSN @ COL✓
3:10 PM · Coors FieldRainy, Hot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Cade Cavalli R
xERA3.58 (good)K%29.8 (elite)HH%48.6 (poor)Barrel%5.4 (good)ERA4.40IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs90BB%5.3
COL vs RHP
wRC+82 (below avg)K%20.2 (avg)HH%33.0 (below avg)
Gabriel Hughes R
xERA2.61 (elite)K%25.0 (good)HH%29.7 (elite)Barrel%5.4 (good)ERA3.14IP/gs7.2 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs88BB%8.9
WSN vs RHP
wRC+147 (elite)K%17.5 (above avg)HH%39.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN-132-1.5 (+116)O11.5 (-104)COL+115+1.5 (-130)U11.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN-140-0.5 (-113)O5.5 (-146)COL+116+0.5 (-115)U5.5 (+112)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO6.5 (+105)U5.5 (+106)O2.5 (-154)U2.5 (+120)COLO5.5 (+110)U5.5 (-138)O2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCade Cavalli5.5 (+114 / -140)15.5 (-116 / -114)Gabriel Hughes4.5 (+112 / -125)15.5 (+108 / -142)
Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ COLW6.09084200
Jul 17@ ATHW6.09594022
Jul 12vs NYYL6.08554122
Jul 5vs PITL2.16336234
Jun 30@ BOSW7.0100131001
Gabriel Hughes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs WSNL5.08855111
Jul 17vs CINL5.18265222
Jul 8@ LADL6.09474233
Jul 3vs SFGW3.0*5312100
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cade Cavalli
IPERAKHBB
vs COL6.00.008.04.02.0(1)
at COL6.00.008.04.02.0(1)
Gabriel Hughes
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.01.805.05.01.0(1)
home starts5.02.675.55.01.5(2)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 5.32 (poor)ERA 6.572d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 3.652d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy, Hot
93°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph NNE
APF 116 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (1%)
Flags · 8
  • WSN — Cade Cavalli: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.32 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • WSN bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • WSN — Cade Cavalli: 2026-07-05: 3 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • WSN — Cade Cavalli: recent opponents high-K: PIT 26%, NYY 26%, ATH 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • COL — Gabriel Hughes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-03 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • WEATHER: rain risk 1% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 116) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
WSN @ COL o11.5 (-104)
Coors Field (APF 117) is the most extreme hitter's park in baseball. WSN offense wRC+ 155 (elite) with K% only 16% — they make contact and put balls in play, a devastating combination at altitude. COL offense is below avg but Coors inflates everyone. Gabriel Hughes is struggling recently (recent ERA 4.05, 3 IP in last start with only 53 pitches — short hook). Cade Cavalli's HH% is 49% with xERA 3.58 — solid but hittable. WSN bullpen xERA 5.06 is a major leak. COL bullpen xERA 4.05 — not strong. WSN is averaging 8.8 RS in recent starts and 8.4 on the road. Both starters project as shakier than the 11.5 total implies, and Coors amplifies everything. The total is already elevated but the structural factors still support the over at -104.
WSN Team Total o6.5 (+105)
Coors Field (APF 116) is the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, and WSN brings the most dangerous lineup on the slate vs RHP (wRC+ 147 in L12, K% just 17.5%). Gabriel Hughes is struggling recently (4.05 ERA last 3 starts) despite an elite xERA, and has a very short recent outing (53 pitches vs SFG suggesting possible health concern). WSN's bullpen is poor (xERA 5.32) which is a disqualifying factor for ML bets, but the team total is independent of WSN's own pitching. WSN is averaging 8.8 RS in SP's recent starts and 8.4 away. The combination of Coors, elite WSN offense, and a struggling/potentially limited Hughes makes Over 6.5 at +105 attractive. WSN's own pen being bad doesn't reduce their run-scoring ability.
ATH @ ARI✓
3:40 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Gage Jump L
xERA4.02 (avg)K%26.2 (good)HH%56.8 (poor)Barrel%10.8 (avg)ERA7.30IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs85BB%11.5
ARI vs LHP
wRC+105 (avg)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Merrill Kelly R
xERA6.11 (poor)K%21.4 (avg)HH%56.2 (poor)Barrel%14.6 (below avg)ERA2.12IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs89BB%10.0
ATH vs RHP
wRC+90 (below avg)K%27.0 (below avg)HH%40.5 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+100-1.5 (+160)O9.5 (+102)ARI-116-1.5 (+160)U9.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH-115-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-140)ARI-102+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATHO4.5 (-106)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)ARIO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGage Jump4.5 (+110 / -124)15.5 (-120 / -110)Merrill Kelly3.5 (-115 / +100)17.5 (-144 / +125)
Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ ARIL4.28358466
Jul 17vs WSNL3.28784234
Jul 11@ CHWL5.28675211
Jul 5vs MIAL3.08518356
Jun 29vs LADL4.291511055
Merrill Kelly · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs ATHW5.08735122
Jul 17vs STLL5.08734213
Jul 9@ SDPW7.09463311
Jul 4vs MILW5.09268222
Jun 28@ TBRL6.09338255
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI4.212.865.08.04.0(1)
at ARI4.212.865.08.04.0(1)
Merrill Kelly
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH5.54.052.55.50.5(2)
home starts5.03.004.05.71.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 6.02 (poor)ERA 8.222d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 3.25 (good)ERA 3.142d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
  • ATH — Gage Jump: HH% 57% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • ARI — Merrill Kelly: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • ARI — Merrill Kelly: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 6.02 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • ATH bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • ARI bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • ATH — Gage Jump: low-K outing 2026-07-05 (1 Ks vs avg 5.3) — stuff was flat that day
Gage Jump Ks o4.5 (+110)
Jump's K% is 26.2% — a strong strikeout rate. In his recent starts his Ks were 1 (vs MIA, flat day — flagged as outlier), 5 (vs LAD), 9 (vs SFG). Ignoring the flat outlier, his typical output is 5-9 Ks. ARI's wRC+ vs LHP is 96 with K% 21.1% — average strikeout rate, not a contact-heavy team so no major downward calibration needed. Average K/start over last 3 is listed as 5.0. The Chase Field roof is closed (neutral environment). At +110, the line of 4.5 looks beatable — Jump projects around 5+ Ks in a normal start. Manager note shows ATH bullpen elevated meaning Jump may pitch deeper, increasing K accumulation opportunities.
CIN @ SEA
3:40 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Brady Singer R
xERA3.29 (good)K%22.7 (avg)HH%44.0 (below avg)Barrel%6.0 (good)ERA2.33IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs95BB%8.0
SEA vs RHP
wRC+86 (below avg)K%18.9 (above avg)HH%38.7 (avg)
Emerson Hancock R
xERA2.65 (elite)K%23.6 (good)HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%2.8 (elite)ERA0.63IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs69BB%10.9
CIN vs RHP
wRC+111 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+134+1.5 (-170)O8.0 (-112)SEA-148-1.5 (+143)U8.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+124+0.5 (-120)O4.5 (-106)SEA-156-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCINO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-110)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)SEAO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrady Singer5.5 (+115 / -140)17.5 (-115 / -105)Emerson Hancock5.5 (-119 / -104)15.5 (-127 / -104)
Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ SEAW6.210166133
Jul 17@ COLW7.09664022
Jul 9vs PHIL7.18954111
Jul 3vs BALL5.09363523
Jun 28@ PITL4.19869055
Emerson Hancock · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs CINL6.09535122
Jul 12@ TBRW1.21920100
Jul 5vs TORW7.09252200
Jun 28@ CLEL5.29865311
Jun 20vs BOSL5.17664255
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA5.25.246.06.02.0(2)
at SEA6.24.356.06.01.0(1)
Emerson Hancock
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.53.273.55.00.5(2)
home starts6.03.484.73.71.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 2.90 (elite)ERA 5.722d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 3.03 (good)ERA 3.292d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
82°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph NW
APF 93 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 2
  • CIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • SEA — Emerson Hancock: last start: 19 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
STL @ LAA
4:07 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Hunter Dobbins R
xERA4.03 (avg)K%24.6 (good)HH%43.9 (below avg)Barrel%4.9 (elite)ERA3.77IP/gs7.2 IP/gsH/gs7.5PC/gs89BB%8.2
LAA vs RHP
wRC+88 (below avg)K%25.1 (below avg)HH%35.7 (avg)
Reid Detmers L
xERA4.26 (avg)K%26.5 (good)HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%13.0 (below avg)ERA6.00IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs84BB%5.9
STL vs LHP
wRC+106 (avg)K%18.1 (above avg)HH%47.2 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+104-1.5 (+162)O9.0 (-113)LAA-120-1.5 (+168)U9.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+108+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-146)LAA-135-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)LAAO4.5 (-106)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UHunter Dobbins4.5 (+125 / +140)14.5 (-122 / +104)Reid Detmers6.5 (+144 / +119)17.5 (-129 / +105)
Hunter Dobbins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ LAAW6.08656000
Jul 7vs MILL5.09244333
Jun 11@ NYML4.18857033
Jun 5vs CINW5.0*7864200
May 31vs CHCW3.2*6144011
Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs STLL5.18562211
Jul 17vs DETL6.08674000
Jul 9@ TEXL4.08267155
Jul 3vs BOSL5.010457355
Jun 27vs ATHW5.29984322
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Hunter Dobbins
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.00.005.06.00.0(1)
at LAA6.00.005.06.00.0(1)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.11.766.02.02.0(1)
home starts5.43.356.04.31.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.78 (avg)ERA 4.562d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.72 (elite)ERA 3.772d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
  • LAA — Reid Detmers: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • STL bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • LAA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • STL — Hunter Dobbins: 15 days since last start (2026-07-07) — may not be fully stretched out
  • STL — Hunter Dobbins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-05, 2026-05-31 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • LAA — Reid Detmers: 2026-07-09: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • LAA — Reid Detmers: recent opponents high-K: TEX 32%, DET 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
MIN @ CLE
6:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bailey Ober R
xERA5.12 (below avg)K%22.4 (avg)HH%46.8 (poor)Barrel%10.6 (avg)ERA6.00IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs72BB%6.0
CLE vs RHP
wRC+119 (above avg)K%27.5 (below avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Slade Cecconi R
xERA4.41 (avg)K%16.7 (below avg)HH%43.1 (below avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA4.91IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs69BB%6.1
MIN vs RHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%19.7 (above avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+176-1.5 (+165)O12.5 (-103)CLE-130-1.5 (+175)U10.5 (+116)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+100+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-104)CLE-120-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+102)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)CLEO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+120)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBailey Ober4.5 (+133 / +128)—Slade Cecconi3.5 (-160 / +130)15.5 (-105 / -107)
Bailey Ober · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ CLEL2.05306033
Jul 17@ CHCW5.18875222
Jul 9vs CLEL5.07453111
May 30@ PITL4.297312178
May 24@ BOSW5.08237044
Slade Cecconi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs MINW2.04133122
Jul 8@ MINL3.26746133
Jul 2vs CHWW5.010039155
Jun 27vs SEAW6.08743200
Jun 21@ HOUL6.07916222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bailey Ober
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE4.07.502.05.71.0(3)
at CLE4.75.072.06.70.3(3)
Slade Cecconi
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN4.13.695.03.71.0(3)
home starts4.34.853.35.01.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.48 (good)ERA 3.702d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 2.85 (elite)ERA 3.272d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
69°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph NW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 7
  • MIN — Bailey Ober: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • MIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • MIN — Bailey Ober: 2026-05-30: 7 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • MIN — Bailey Ober: recent opponents high-K: PIT 26%, CLE 28%, CHC 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • CLE — Slade Cecconi: 14 days since last start (2026-07-08) — may not be fully stretched out
  • CLE — Slade Cecconi: last start: 67 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • CLE — Slade Cecconi: 2026-07-02: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
LAD @ PHI
6:40 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Eric Lauer L
xERA3.31 (good)K%9.3 (poor)HH%24.6 (elite)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA3.00IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs7.5PC/gs83BB%8.0
PHI vs LHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%28.7 (poor)HH%36.0 (avg)
Aaron Nola R
xERA2.66 (elite)K%28.0 (elite)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%10.4 (avg)ERA4.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs72BB%8.0
LAD vs RHP
wRC+78 (poor)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD+120+1.5 (-198)O9.5 (+105)PHI-143-1.5 (+165)U8.5 (+116)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-114-0.5 (+116)O5.5 (+102)PHI-105+0.5 (-152)U5.5 (-132)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULADO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (+105)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)PHIO4.5 (-105)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEric Lauer3.5 (-120 / +121)15.5 (-120 / +100)Aaron Nola5.5 (+104 / -132)15.5 (+100 / -132)
Eric Lauer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ PHIL3.05442122
Jul 6vs COLW6.09936233
Jun 29@ ATHW6.09529133
Jun 22@ MINW6.0*8420300
Jun 15vs TBRW6.09346333
Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs LADW3.03531011
Jul 16vs NYML6.09766433
Jul 10@ DETL5.08483222
Jul 5@ KCRL7.09877033
Jun 29vs PITL4.18658278
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eric Lauer
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI3.06.004.02.01.0(1)
at PHI3.06.004.02.01.0(1)
Aaron Nola
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD4.54.002.54.00.5(2)
home starts4.47.564.75.02.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 3.79 (avg)ERA 3.632d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
PHI
xERA 3.40 (good)ERA 6.232d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
  • LAD — Eric Lauer: 16 days since last start (2026-07-06) — may not be fully stretched out
  • LAD — Eric Lauer: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
PIT @ NYY✓
7:05 PM · Yankee Stadium
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bubba Chandler R
xERA3.12 (good)K%16.9 (below avg)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%2.0 (elite)ERA6.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs65BB%12.7
NYY vs RHP
wRC+110 (avg)K%26.0 (below avg)HH%45.4 (elite)
Max Fried L
xERA3.32 (good)K%20.6 (avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%2.3 (elite)ERA6.91IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs59BB%11.1
PIT vs LHP
wRC+163 (elite)K%22.9 (avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+176+1.5 (-130)O7.5 (-102)NYY-215-1.5 (+105)U7.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+142+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (-118)NYY-180-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderPITO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-110)NYYO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (-104)
Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ NYYL1.01300100
Jul 11vs MILW4.29765322
Jul 5@ WSNW4.08606444
Jun 30@ PHIL6.19767255
Jun 25vs SEAW5.17545311
Max Fried · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs PITL1.22221100
May 13@ BALL3.06125133
May 8@ MILL6.09456355
May 3vs BALW5.110766333
Apr 27@ TEXW6.08954200
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bubba Chandler
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY1.00.000.00.01.0(1)
at NYY1.00.000.00.01.0(1)
Max Fried
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT3.21.414.03.51.0(2)
home starts3.86.323.73.32.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 5.24 (below avg)ERA 3.932d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 4.09 (avg)ERA 3.282d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Weather
90°F, Wind 14 mph
Flags · 8
  • PIT — Bubba Chandler: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.24 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • PIT bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • NYY bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • PIT — Bubba Chandler: 11 days since last start (2026-07-11) — may not be fully stretched out
  • NYY — Max Fried: 70 days since last start (2026-05-13) — may not be fully stretched out
  • NYY — Max Fried: last start: 61 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • NYY — Max Fried: recent opponents high-K: BAL 27%, BAL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
PIT @ NYY o9.5 (+101)
Game 1 of the doubleheader. Both starters are high-risk: Mitch Keller has xERA 6.94 (poor), HH% 50%, Barrel% 13.5%, and was historically demolished at Yankee Stadium (19.69 ERA in his only prior start there). Gerrit Cole xERA 3.22 (good on paper) but recent ERA 6.97 (struggling acutely), HH% 49%, Barrel% 13% — both flags blaring. PIT bullpen xERA 5.24 (poor). PIT offense is ELITE vs RHP at wRC+ 137. NYY wRC+ 108. Both bullpens are strained from usage (both flags elevated, 4-5 IP used yesterday). Yankee Stadium APF 104 tilts offensive. Multiple over signals align: both starters struggling, both with elevated contact/barrel rates, weak PIT pen, pitcher park factor >100. At +101, excellent value.
PIT Team Total o3.5 (-120)
PIT vs LHP: wRC+ 163 in L12 — this is the hottest left-handed offense split on the slate. Max Fried is returning from a 70-day layoff, threw only 61 pitches last outing, carries a 6.91 ERA (vs 3.32 xERA — significant luck gap suggesting real struggles), and his home ERA is 6.04 in 3 starts. Wind blowing out 16mph at Yankee Stadium amplifies PIT's elite offense. This is a pure offensive edge play — betting PIT scores regardless of Chandler's performance. -120 is reasonable given the elite wRC+ matchup.
TBR @ TOR
7:07 PM · Rogers CentreNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Griffin Jax R
xERA4.44 (avg)K%29.7 (elite)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%10.5 (avg)ERA6.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs60BB%9.4
TOR vs RHP
wRC+72 (poor)K%16.0 (above avg)HH%28.2 (poor)
Braydon Fisher
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
TBR
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR+164+1.5 (-145)O7.5 (-102)TOR-205-1.5 (+116)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-112+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (-110)TOR-112-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderTBRO4.5 (+105)U3.5 (+114)TORO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+112)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGriffin Jax4.5 (-113 / -103)15.5 (+131 / -165)Braydon Fisher——
Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ TORL1.02721111
Jul 17@ BOSL5.08568177
Jul 11vs SEAW5.06934311
Jul 6vs NYYL5.081101233
Jun 30@ KCRW6.07155033
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Griffin Jax
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR3.01.501.52.52.5(2)
at TOR3.01.501.52.52.5(2)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 2.662d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 5.442d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
66°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph W
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 2
  • TOR — Braydon Fisher: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • TBR — Griffin Jax: 2026-07-17: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
BAL @ BOS✓
7:10 PM · Fenway Park
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kyle Bradish R
xERA2.76 (elite)K%16.4 (below avg)HH%24.5 (elite)Barrel%1.9 (elite)ERA3.44IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs67BB%11.0
BOS vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)
Eduardo Rivera L
xERA2.69 (elite)K%25.0 (good)HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA2.89IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs2.5PC/gs56BB%11.1
BAL vs LHP
wRC+135 (elite)K%27.0 (below avg)HH%42.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-522-4.5 (-110)O13.5 (+102)BOS+410+3.5 (+104)U13.5 (-104)
Team Totals
OverUnderBALO4.5 (+110)U4.5 (-140)BOSO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (-110)
Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ BOSW0.0*000000
Jul 11vs KCRW6.29652211
Jul 5@ CINL7.210655133
Jun 28vs WSNL4.08521534
Jun 22@ LAAW8.010196100
Eduardo Rivera · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs BALL0.24113244
Jul 17vs TBRW2.16433233
Jul 11@ NYMW3.26431200
Apr 22vs NYYL3.1*4131000
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Bradish
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.54.096.54.02.0(2)
at BOS—
Eduardo Rivera
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL0.2180.001.03.02.0(1)
home starts1.227.392.03.02.0(2)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.49 (elite)ERA 2.952d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 2.05 (elite)ERA 1.242d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Flags · 5
  • BAL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • BAL — Kyle Bradish: 11 days since last start (2026-07-11) — may not be fully stretched out
  • BOS — Eduardo Rivera: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-04-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • BOS — Eduardo Rivera: last start: 64 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • BOS — Eduardo Rivera: 2026-07-17: 3 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
BAL @ BOS u9.0 (+101)
Game 2 of the doubleheader. Kyle Bradish xERA 2.76 (elite), recent ERA 1.88 (hot), and his last two starts were dominant (8 IP/0 ER with 9K, then 7.2 IP/1 ER with 12K). Ranger Suarez xERA 2.60 (elite) and recent ERA 1.57 (hot, ignoring the skewed 3-ER start that was flagged as outlier at only 53 pitches — his other two starts were 1 ER combined). Both bullpens are strong: BAL xERA 2.49, BOS xERA 2.05. Both offenses are average-to-above (BAL wRC+ 126 vs LHP, BOS wRC+ 112 vs RHP) but not overwhelming. The under signals stack: two elite starters both in hot form, two strong bullpens, and getting +101 on the under is essentially free money given the matchup quality. The note that Suarez may not be fully stretched out (17 days rest, flagged) could mean shorter outing but BOS pen is elite and would hold.
SDP @ ATL✓
7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael King R
xERA3.37 (good)K%19.4 (avg)HH%21.3 (elite)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA2.12IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs66BB%9.0
ATL vs RHP
wRC+147 (elite)K%22.0 (avg)HH%41.3 (above avg)
Martin Perez L
xERA7.19 (poor)K%9.5 (poor)HH%31.2 (good)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA7.43IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs61BB%14.3
SDP vs LHP
wRC+133 (elite)K%15.6 (elite)HH%49.0 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+172+1.5 (-130)O9.5 (+115)ATL-193-1.5 (+108)U8.5 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-108+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-132)ATL-116-0.5 (+118)U4.5 (+102)
Team Totals
OverUnderSDPO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-135)ATLO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael King4.5 (+110 / -138)16.5 (-134 / +108)Martin Perez4.5 (+120 / -151)—
Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ ATLL0.01000200
Jul 17@ KCRL5.09744211
Jul 8vs ARIW6.09244211
Jul 3@ LADL6.07553222
Jun 28vs LADL4.19053444
Martin Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs SDPL1.02110100
Jul 5vs NYML4.17716245
Jun 30vs STLL5.08515344
Jun 24@ SDPL4.08244433
Jun 19vs MILW6.08256211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL3.12.932.73.32.0(3)
at ATL0.0?0.00.02.0(1)
Martin Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP2.55.402.52.02.5(2)
home starts3.47.131.03.72.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.03 (elite)ERA 3.232d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.83 (avg)ERA 4.262d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 8 mph S
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • ATL — Martin Perez: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • ATL — Martin Perez: 17 days since last start (2026-07-05) — may not be fully stretched out
  • ATL — Martin Perez: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • ATL — Martin Perez: recent opponents low-K: SDP 16%, STL 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
ATL Team Total o4.5 (+116)
Martin Perez is a disaster on paper: xERA 7.19, ERA 7.43, BB% 14%, 17 days off, only 77 pitches last start — likely on a short leash. His home ERA is 5.36 across 3 starts. ATL's offense is ELITE vs RHP at wRC+ 160 with HH% 42%, the best lineup in this slate. Even with Perez's recent hot streak (2.98 ERA last 3), the regression risk is enormous given his xERA and walk rate. SDP pen is elite (xERA 2.00) so betting game total is trickier, but ATL's own team total at +116 isolates the offensive edge without relying on SDP runs. ATL scores in bunches when given a weak starter, and this matchup screams runs for Atlanta.
SDP ML (+100)
Michael King has a clean 3.37 xERA (good), recent ERA 3.16 (consistent), and a 2.93 ERA in 2 starts vs ATL specifically — he knows this lineup. SDP's bullpen xERA is elite at 2.00. ATL's starter Martin Perez is a massive liability (xERA 7.19, 17 days off, 77 pitch last outing). The compound edge: SDP has the better pitcher AND the better bullpen. ATL's elite offense is the counterweight, but at +100 (even money) on the team with the better SP and pen, this is outstanding value — essentially a coin flip line when SDP holds clear structural advantages.
CHW @ TEX✓
8:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Anthony Kay L
xERA4.16 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%11.8 (below avg)ERA3.38IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs74BB%12.7
TEX vs LHP
wRC+130 (elite)K%32.0 (poor)HH%38.5 (avg)
Tyler Alexander
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CHW
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW-120-1.5 (+143)O8.5 (-118)TEX+104+1.5 (-156)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW-118-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-128)TEX-106+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)TEXO4.5 (+120)U3.5 (+112)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAnthony Kay4.5 (+120 / -138)15.5 (+121 / -152)Tyler Alexander——
Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 17@ TORW4.08352322
Jul 9vs BOSL5.19244222
Jul 3@ CLEL4.04821211
Jun 28vs KCRL3.27327135
Jun 22vs CLEW6.010183200
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.26 (good)ERA 2.222d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 4.45 (avg)ERA 7.492d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
  • CHW — Anthony Kay: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • TEX — Tyler Alexander: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • CHW bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • TEX bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CHW — Anthony Kay: recent opponents low-K: BOS 19%, TOR 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
TEX Team Total o4.5 (+120)
Tyler Alexander is a NO STATS starter — a disqualifying factor for any pitcher-dependent bet on TEX's side. However, the OFFENSIVE edge here is unmistakable: TEX's wRC+ vs LHP is an elite 130 in the last 12 games. Anthony Kay walks 12.7% of batters (elevated), has a xERA of 4.16 (average), and his recent 'hot' ERA of 2.73 was built against CLE (twice) and KCR — all lower-K, less dangerous lineups than TEX. The flag explicitly notes 'recent opponents low-K; today's lineup may be tougher.' TEX K% is 32.0% vs LHP, which ironically means they swing hard and make loud contact when they DO connect. A +120 price on TEX Team Total Over 4.5 is excellent value for an elite offense facing a shaky command LHP. We are NOT betting a full-game side because Alexander is unknown (disqualifying for that side). CHW bullpen xERA is 3.26 (strong) which could suppress TEX in the late innings — but 4.5 is a low bar for an elite LHP-facing offense.
DET @ CHC✓
8:10 PM · Wrigley FieldPitcher Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Keider Montero R
xERA2.29 (elite)K%32.4 (elite)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.38IP/gs8.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs44BB%5.9
CHC vs RHP
wRC+104 (avg)K%25.4 (below avg)HH%39.6 (avg)
Colin Rea R
xERA4.87 (below avg)K%18.3 (avg)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%6.0 (good)ERA4.41IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs88BB%8.5
DET vs RHP
wRC+95 (avg)K%23.9 (avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET+106+1.5 (-200)O8.0 (-109)CHC-124-1.5 (+172)U8.0 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET+100+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (-108)CHC-124-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO3.5 (-128)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-166)U1.5 (+130)CHCO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+114)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKeider Montero3.5 (-111 / -108)14.5 (-161 / +121)Colin Rea4.5 (-104 / -122)15.5 (+130 / -154)
Keider Montero · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 17@ LAAW3.1*4351000
Jul 12vs PHIL3.0*5854133
Jul 8vs ATHW1.2*3212100
Jul 4@ TEXW3.0*3600100
Jul 1@ NYYW2.0*2330100
Colin Rea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 17vs MINL6.09165134
Jul 8@ BALW5.19127233
Jul 1vs SDPW5.08156322
Jun 26@ MILL5.08945311
Jun 20vs TORL5.17833000
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Colin Rea
IPERAKHBB
vs DET—
home starts5.42.804.74.71.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.43 (good)ERA 2.552d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 5.21 (below avg)ERA 5.222d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
70°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph NE
APF 95 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 7
  • DET — Keider Montero: small sample (8.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • CHC bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.21 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • DET bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CHC bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • DET — Keider Montero: 26 days since last start (2026-06-26) — may not be fully stretched out
  • DET — Keider Montero: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-17, 2026-07-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • CHC — Colin Rea: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-14 — may affect pitch count or availability
DET @ CHC F5 u4.5 (-120)
Montero has a 2.29 xERA (elite) and has allowed 0 ER across all 3 recent starts, giving him a recent ERA of 0.00 — the dominant signal here. Though his IP are short (small sample / relief appearances), his stuff is clearly elite and he faces an avg CHC offense (wRC+ 104). On the other side, Rea's recent ERA is 1.79 HOT over his last 3 starts (15.1 IP, 3 ER) — he's been dominant into the 5th inning, and his home ERA sits at 2.80. DET offense is average (wRC+ 95 vs RHP). Both starters project to hold the opposing offense in the first 5. The CHC bullpen xERA is a disaster at 5.21, but that damage comes AFTER the 5th inning, making the F5 under the cleanest expression of this edge. The 4.5 line is fairly set, but with two cold offenses (both wRC+ ≤104) and two hot pitchers in the first 5, the under is the play. Note: Montero's short recent outings are a concern (bullpen appearances), so we are limiting to F5 only.
Colin Rea o4.5 Ks (-104)
Rea's K% is 18.3% at the season level, but his last 3 starts averaged 4.0 K/start (5K, 4K, 3K). DET's offense strikes out at a 23.9% clip vs RHP — above average for a contact-oriented team. The CHC bullpen flags suggest the manager will let Rea work deep, and with both bullpens stressed, Rea could pitch into the 6th or 7th inning. Calibrating: Rea's recent opponents (SDP, MIL, TOR) tend to strike out at roughly average rates, and DET's 23.9% K rate is in that range. At -104, we're getting nearly even money on a line that his recent avg (4.0 K/start) basically matches — but with the extra-innings buffer from a likely deep outing and a K-capable opponent, this edges over the line. Acceptable price; not a strong lean but good value at near-even odds.
MIA @ HOU✓
8:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Sandy Alcantara R
xERA2.38 (elite)K%28.1 (elite)HH%32.1 (good)Barrel%3.8 (elite)ERA2.14IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs101BB%6.1
HOU vs RHP
wRC+137 (elite)K%18.7 (above avg)HH%37.3 (avg)
Peter Lambert R
xERA1.85 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)HH%23.1 (elite)Barrel%5.1 (good)ERA1.02IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs100BB%7.2
MIA vs RHP
wRC+123 (above avg)K%20.7 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-105-1.5 (+164)O8.0 (-115)HOU-110+1.5 (-184)U8.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-108+0.5 (-156)O4.5 (+100)HOU-115-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO3.5 (-145)U3.5 (+118)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)HOUO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-166)U1.5 (+130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USandy Alcantara4.5 (-160 / +126)18.5 (+132 / -159)Peter Lambert5.5 (+120 / -146)17.5 (-118 / +100)
Sandy Alcantara · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 17@ MILL6.010473411
Jul 10vs CLEL7.09985033
Jul 4@ ATHW8.010086111
Jun 29@ COLW5.29637555
Jun 23vs TEXW6.210945311
Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 17vs BALL6.0104103311
Jul 11@ TEXW6.010773111
Jul 5vs TBRW5.29063100
Jun 29vs MINL5.210045344
Jun 23@ TORW4.29266322
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sandy Alcantara
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU7.07.715.09.01.0(1)
at HOU—
Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA—
home starts5.52.746.73.72.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 4.47 (avg)ERA 5.402d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 3.41 (good)ERA 3.642d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
  • MIA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • HOU bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • MIA — Sandy Alcantara: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • MIA — Sandy Alcantara: recent opponents high-K: ATH 27%, CLE 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • HOU — Peter Lambert: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
Peter Lambert u17.5 Outs (+100)
Lambert's xERA is elite (1.85) and his season ERA is a remarkable 1.02, but his recent ERA has jumped to 3.70 over his last 3 starts — a clear STRUGGLING signal. Critically, his last two starts were cut short: 5.2 IP vs TBR (90pc), 5.2 IP vs MIN (100pc — high pitch count), and 4.2 IP vs TOR (92pc). His avg recent IP is ~5.4, meaning 17.5 outs = 5.83 IP, which is above what he has been producing recently. He has a 104-pitch outing just last start, likely placing him on a shorter leash today. MIA's offense is hot in L12 (wRC+ 123 vs RHP), features just 20.7% K rate (good contact team), and HH% of 38.9% — they will put balls in play and stress Lambert. At +100 (even money), this is an excellent price for an under that his recent avg IP does not support reaching.
MIA @ HOU o8.0 (-115)
Multiple over signals converge here. (1) Lambert is STRUGGLING recently (3.70 ERA last 3 starts) despite an elite xERA, and his ERA << xERA gap (1.02 ERA vs 1.85 xERA) means the market may be overconfident in his ability to suppress runs. (2) Alcantara's recent ERA is 3.25 (above his elite xERA of 2.38), suggesting he's not at his sharpest — his lone start vs HOU went for a 7.71 ERA. (3) BOTH offenses are dangerous: MIA wRC+ 123 and HOU wRC+ 137 (elite) in L12. (4) MIA's bullpen is poor (xERA 4.47, ERA 5.40) — once both starters exit, the gates open. HOU's bullpen is solid (xERA 3.41) but MIA's pen will bleed runs in the back half. (5) CHC/HOU home avg RS of 3.4 runs in Lambert's recent starts is low, but that reflects the early-season dominant ERA that is now regressing. The combination of two struggling pitchers (recent trend), two hot offenses, and a leaky MIA bullpen makes 8.0 a reasonable over target, especially at -115 which is just barely over the standard vig.