AI Picks · 15 Bets · Aug 5
STL @ NYY o8.5 (-105)
Both starters are currently struggling badly. (1) Andre Pallante: xERA 3.25 (good baseline) but recent ERA is 5.29 — he is clearly underperforming right now. His ERA of 2.41 is FAR below his xERA of 3.25, meaning he has been LUCKY all season; market sets the total based on that deceptively good ERA. But recent form shows 3 ER in 5.1 IP and 6 ER in 5.0 IP in back-to-back starts. The luck is running out. (2) Will Warren: xERA 4.00, recent ERA 7.00 (struggling), season ERA 5.23. The flag notes the 6 ER in 3 IP start may be an outlier, but even his 5 ER in 4 IP vs TBR is concerning. Both starters are genuinely struggling RIGHT NOW. (3) Both bullpens are average to below average: STL xERA 3.74, NYY xERA 4.19. (4) NYY offense vs RHP is only wRC+ 63 (poor, lots of Ks at 30%), but STL offense has been averaging 7.4–8.2 RS in Pallante's recent starts — this team is scoring runs. (5) Yankee Stadium APF 104 slightly favors offense. (6) Both pens are flagged as stressed — managers will leave starters in longer, meaning the struggling starters absorb more innings. (7) Total is 8.5 at -105 — not inflated at all given the situation. This is the clearest over setup of the night: two struggling pitchers, leaky pens, slight offense park, and a total that hasn't moved to reflect the pitching deterioration.
Found at 7:31 PM ET
Kyle Harrison o6.5 Ks (+118)
Harrison has an excellent K% of 27.5% and his recent 3 starts show 9K, 7K, 3K (avg 6.3). The 3K game (vs PHI, 80pc, 6IP) was a contact-oriented day but PHI has a lower K% than PIT. PIT vs LHP has a K% of only 17.0% — but look at this matchup specifically: Harrison vs PIT in 1 prior start: 0.00 ERA, 6.0 IP, 12 Ks. PIT strikes out frequently vs elite lefties despite the team K% looking low. Calibrating: the 3K PHI start pulls the average down but PHI is a lower-K team vs LHP. PIT vs LHP with a 17% team K% is below avg but Harrison's nasty stuff can exceed that. Adjusted expectation: ~6.5–7.5 Ks. The line is 6.5 at +118 — getting plus money on a line right at our expectation's floor is value. The flag about Harrison's last start being 70 pitches / 28-day layoff is a concern for total outs, but the MIL bullpen is stressed and the flag says 'lean SP outs OVER' — suggesting Harrison may be stretched more than normal. Even at 5 innings (15 outs), at 27.5 K%, with PIT's free-swinging tendencies vs good lefties, 6.5+ Ks is reachable. +118 is excellent pricing. Rain risk (31%) is a concern — if the game is delayed/shortened, Harrison may not accumulate Ks. This is noted as a risk but the 31% threshold is not disqualifying per rules; recommend smaller unit given weather uncertainty.
Found at 7:31 PM ET
MIN @ KCR o8.5 (-118)
Multiple over signals converge here. (1) Dean Kremer has a horrific season ERA of 10.29 and an xERA of 4.88 — both are bad. His recent ERA is improving (4.20) but he's still a well-below-average starter giving up runs. (2) Noah Cameron: his xERA is elite (2.91) but his recent ERA is 6.88 — a significant divergence indicating he is CURRENTLY STRUGGLING despite his underlying quality. The flag notes one skewed start (7 ER, 7/19), but even ignoring that, the 7/26 start (5 ER in 7 IP) is real. Recent ERA >> xERA for Cameron means we should lean OVER on his side. (3) KCR bullpen is below average (xERA 4.52, ERA 4.93) — once Cameron exits early (his recent avg is 5.7 IP/gs but current pitch counts suggest shorter hooks), the pen leaks. (4) KCR home avg RS in Cameron's last 5 starts is 8.4 — extraordinary. (5) Park APF 104 at Kauffman slightly favors offense. (6) MIN bullpen is solid (xERA 3.46) but the starter is giving up runs. The total is set at 8.5 +100 for the under which implies the market leans slightly under — we disagree given two struggling/below-avg starters and a leaky KCR pen. Getting the over at -118 is within range given the strength of signals.
Found at 7:31 PM ET
SDP ML (-122)
Casey Mize is clearly the dominant arm here: recent ERA 2.45 (trending better than his xERA 3.09), great matchup history vs ARI (2.50 ERA in 2 prior starts, 1.50 ERA at Chase Field), and solid pitch-count trend building toward 6+ IP. Mitch Bratt is in acute trouble — recent ERA 5.29 with command woes (BB% 14%), short outings (3.0 IP twice in last 3 starts), and a 0 K outing. SDP offense is productive vs LHP (wRC+ 107). SDP bullpen is elite (xERA 2.27) vs ARI pen (xERA 3.23). Compound edge: dominant starter + strong bullpen + hot offense vs struggling pitcher. ML at -122 is fair value for the overall package.
Found at 5:03 PM ET
Casey Mize o4.5 Ks (+106)
Mize averages 6.3 K/start over his last 3 outings and has a K% of 21.3%. ARI has a low K% vs RHP (16.1%), which is below average but his recent K numbers came partly against NYY and TEX — comparable or tougher than ARI's lineup. Adjusted expectation is around 5.5–6 Ks vs ARI, well above the 4.5 line. The 11-day rest note is a mild concern but he's shown no signs of workload issues (pitch counts building nicely). Getting +106 juice for a bet where expectation exceeds the line by ~1.5 Ks is strong value.
Found at 5:03 PM ET
SDP @ ARI F5 u4.5 (+106)
Casey Mize is the dominant story here: recent ERA 2.45 vs xERA 3.09 (hot, outperforming), elite walk rate (4.9 BB%), has a 1.50 ERA in 1 start at Chase Field, and 2.50 ERA in 2 career starts vs ARI. ARI offense is below average vs RHP (wRC+ 92, L12) with a low 16.1 K% meaning they put the ball in play but Mize limits hard contact (44.2 HH%, 4.4 Barrel%). On the other side, Mitch Bratt is clearly struggling (recent ERA 5.29) but the key is that Bratt has a 14.3 BB% command problem that typically inflates pitch counts and leads to early exits — the flag notes the bullpen is fresh and manager may hook him early. SDP offense is only avg vs LHP (wRC+ 107), not elite. The F5 Under at +106 is excellent value: we get Mize limiting ARI in 5 innings (high confidence) and take our chances on Bratt's early struggles being contained within Bratt's ~3-5 IP before hooks happen. The +106 price on the under is getting paid to take the under — unusual and creates edge. Note: 11-day layoff flag for Mize is mild concern, but his recent 88pc start 10 days prior showed no fatigue and workload was building (5.2→6.2→7.0 IP trend).
Found at 7:31 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
TBR @ COL o11.5 (-110)
Coors Field with APF 114 is the most extreme hitter's park in baseball. Sugano's xERA is 6.69 (POOR) — one of the worst in the dataset. His HH% is 45%, Barrel% 15%, and recent ERA 5.79. His only matchup vs TBR showed 12.60 ERA. His home park splits are 2.46 ERA in 3 starts which is heavily Coors-sample variance. COL bullpen is terrible: xERA 5.32 (disqualifying for bullpen quality). Martinez is actually solid (recent ERA 2.22, hot), but he's at Coors against a team with mediocre pitching all around, and his own game gets distorted by park. TBR offense is avg (wRC+ 103). COL offense is below avg (wRC+ 91), but COL home avg RS is 5.2 in Sugano's L5 starts and 5.6 RS overall in L10. Over signals strongly aligned: Coors APF 114 ✓, Sugano xERA 6.69 (poor) ✓, Sugano HH%/Barrel% extreme ✓, COL bullpen xERA 5.32 (poor) ✓, Sugano season ERA << xERA gap is reversed (ERA 2.95, xERA 6.69 — MASSIVE luck gap, market setting total too low based on ERA), combined RS trends point toward 10+ runs. The 11.5 line is the highest on the slate and still justified — the Sugano xERA vs ERA discrepancy alone is a massive over signal. TBR has gone 4-1 in SP L5 with avg 4.2 RS on the road. Multiple strong signals align.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
BAL F5 ML (-132)
Trevor Rogers is the best pitcher on the field today: xERA 2.39 (elite), recent ERA 1.05 (HOT), going 6.0+ IP, and owns a 1.88 ERA at home in 3 starts. BAL's offense vs LHP is strong (wRC+ 118, above avg). Detmers is struggling badly — recent ERA 6.00 over last 3 starts despite a good xERA of 3.11, suggesting real regression not just luck. No matchup history cuts both ways, but Detmers' recent form is disqualifying for confidence in him. BAL bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.65). The F5 framing is correct: Rogers is the edge, and you capture both his dominance AND BAL's offensive advantage vs Detmers. LAA bullpen is good (xERA 3.32), but that's irrelevant in F5 context. The -132 price is borderline — hence the line_warning and alt suggestion.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider BAL F5 Team Total Over 2.5 at +120 as a lower-vig alternative expressing the same offensive edge vs Detmers.
NYM @ CLE u8.5 (-112)
Christian Scott is elite: xERA 1.65, recent ERA 1.90 (adjusting for the noted 3-ER outlier in one start, other starts are 0 ER), K% 32.3%, averaging 5.1 IP/gs with deep pitch counts. CLE's wRC+ vs RHP is 78 (POOR) and K% only 18.8% — a low strikeout lineup that Scott should suppress via contact management. NYM offense vs RHP is also cold at wRC+ 84. Bibee is struggling recently (ERA 5.00, though partly driven by the 6-ER outlier vs CHW — remaining starts cleaner), but his xERA of 3.06 is solid and CLE's home ERA is a real 5.26 in 3 starts. NYM bullpen is exceptional (xERA 1.90) — among the best in baseball, strongly protecting the under. Both offenses are cold. The market has this at 8.5 which seems too high given Scott's dominance and the poor CLE offense. Under signals: Scott's recent form ≤3.00 ERA ✓, NYM bullpen elite ✓, both offenses cold ✓, neutral park APF 100 ✓. Bibee's struggles are the one against, but with 8.5 to work with, this is a reasonable play.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
WSN @ PHI o9.5 (-115)
Both starters are genuinely terrible right now. Painter: xERA 5.54 (poor), recent ERA 12.33 (STRUGGLING), Barrel% 12%, BB% 13%, ERA 9.00. He's been shelled in every recent start. Irvin: xERA 3.69 (decent at baseline), but recent ERA 8.25 (STRUGGLING), and vs PHI specifically he owns a 7.56 ERA in 3 starts and a 10.00 ERA at CBP in 2 starts — the park/opponent matchup is actively bad for him. WSN offense vs RHP is strong: wRC+ 122 (above avg). PHI offense vs RHP is below avg at wRC+ 84, but Painter is so bad that even a mediocre offense can score against him. CBP is a hitter's park (APF 105). Both bullpens are average (xERA ~3.91-3.94). PHI has gone 0-5 in SP L5 with avg 2.6 RS — their offense is cold, but Painter's extreme struggles should still generate runs. Over signals: both starters have high recent ERA ✓, both starters have bad xERA (Painter 5.54 especially) ✓, park favors offense (APF 105) ✓, WSN offense is solid ✓. The caution is PHI's cold offense (wRC+ 84) and average bullpens. Medium confidence — the Irvin matchup-specific history vs PHI/CBP is a strong additional signal that tips this over.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
CHW @ BOS u8.0 (-105)
Both starters are elite and HOT right now. Sean Burke: recent ERA 0.94 over last 3 starts (HOT), xERA 2.47, going 6.2 IP/gs with big pitch counts (95-98). He's averaging 8.3 K/start. Sonny Gray: recent ERA 1.50 over last 3 starts (HOT), going a consistent 6.0 IP/gs each outing. Both offenses are cold or average: CHW wRC+ 85 vs RHP (below avg), BOS wRC+ 97 vs RHP (average). Both bullpens are excellent: CHW xERA 3.04, BOS xERA 2.81 — both elite, meaning the pen protects the under through 9 innings. Park is Fenway (APF 104), slightly hitter-friendly but not a major concern. The only flag is Gray's HH% 45% and a 5-ER outing on 7/25 that is noted as skewing the ERA — the flag specifically says don't overweight it. Under signals aligned: both recent ERAs ≤3.00 ✓, both xERAs below average (Burke 2.47, Gray 4.39 — Gray is the one concern, but his recent form far outweighs the xERA here), both bullpens strong ✓, both offenses cold/avg ✓, line at 8.0 is reasonable for the market but with BOTH starters genuinely dominant right now, under is the play. Gray's xERA of 4.39 is the one caveat, but his recent 1.50 ERA in consistent 6-inning outings is the stronger signal per data hierarchy.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
Sean Burke K o6.5 (+122)
Burke is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now: 5K, 9K, 11K in last 3 starts (avg 8.3 K/start), recent ERA 0.94. His K% is elite at 35.7%. BOS vs RHP has K% 22.3% — average, not a concern. Calibration: Burke's recent 5K outing came vs TOR (K% 15%), 9K vs ATH (K% 17%), 11K vs CLE (K% 19%). All three opponents were BELOW average K% teams. Today he faces BOS at 22.3% K% — ABOVE all three recent opponents. Adjusted expected Ks: take his conservative floor (8+ per game against lower K% lineups) and calibrate UP slightly for a more K-prone BOS lineup. Adjusted expectation ~8.0-9.0 Ks. The line is 6.5 at +122 — that's a gap of ~1.5-2.5 Ks. His last 3 starts all hit at least 5 Ks even in his worst outing. The Outs line of 17.5 (-150) confirms the market expects him to go deep. Everything aligns: high K%, deep workload (6.2 IP/gs), opponent K rate comparable or better than recent opponents, and a line that hasn't caught up to his current dominance. Strong value at +122.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
MIA @ ATL u8.5 (+100)
Eury Perez is absolutely elite right now — recent ERA 0.95 over last 3 starts, HOT, with dominant 7.7 K/start avg and an xERA of 2.33. He goes deep into games (6.3 IP/gs). ATL's wRC+ vs RHP is 108 (not elite), and MIA offense is cold vs LHP at wRC+ 114 — but more importantly, Bryce Elder is the only wildcard. Yes, Elder is struggling (recent ERA 6.43, HH%/Barrel% are alarming), but one sided dominance from Perez is enough to suppress scoring in the first half. The critical edge: MIA's offense vs LHP is actually strong (wRC+ 114) suggesting Elder will give up runs, but Perez will dominate ATL — Perez's dominant side outweighs Elder's struggling side in a game total context, and both bullpens are average (xERA ~3.85). The total of 8.5 seems elevated given how dominant Perez has been. However, Elder is genuinely bad right now. Lean Under is justified but modest — Perez's dominance partially offsets Elder's struggles. This is a 3-signal under: Perez recent ERA far below his xERA (0.95 vs 2.33 = locked in), both bullpens decent, park is neutral (APF 102). Elder's struggles keep this at medium confidence but Perez's half of the game is a strong under signal.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
Eury Perez K o5.5 (+108)
Perez has been absolutely dominant: 9K, 6K, 8K in his last 3 starts (avg 7.7 K/start), recent ERA 0.95. His K% is 23.0% and he's averaging 6.3 IP/gs. ATL's offense vs RHP has K% 22.4% — a perfectly average strikeout rate. Adjusting for today's opponent (ATL K% near league avg at 22.4%), Perez's adjusted expected Ks remain well above 5.5 — his worst recent outing was 6 Ks. The low-K flag (2 Ks vs MIL one game, noted earlier in the season) is not from the last 3 starts — his last 3 show 9K/6K/8K. Line is 5.5 at +108, which is genuinely undervalued given that Perez hasn't been held to 5 or fewer Ks in any of his last 3 starts. The matchup vs ATL at Truist (park neutral, APF 102) adds no concern. His pitch counts are high (93-99 pc), confirming he goes deep. Multiple signals align: hot streak, elite K%, K-friendly opponent rate, deep workload. Expected K total ~7.5, line is 5.5 — gap of 2.0 Ks is well above the 1.5 threshold.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
MIA ML (+114)
Eury Perez is in historic form (recent ERA 0.95, averaging 7.7 K/start, xERA 2.33 elite) and ATL's Bryce Elder is actively struggling (recent ERA 6.43, xERA 4.67, HH% 50%, Barrel% 13%). Elder has a 5.52 ERA vs MIA over 3 career starts and 5.50 ERA at home over 3 starts — no safe harbor here. MIA offense vs RHP is wRC+ 113 in L12. The main concern is Perez's own matchup history at this park (7.91 ERA in 2 starts at Truist) and MIA's shaky bullpen (xERA 4.20). However, Perez's current trajectory is exceptional and Elder is a genuine liability. At +114, MIA offers clear value given the starting pitcher edge — the underdog price more than compensates for the bullpen risk.
Found at 11:53 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
TOR @ 
HOU2:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
TOR @ HOUMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jameson Taillon R
xERA7.75 (poor)K%23.9 (good)HH%41.4 (below avg)Barrel%24.1 (poor)ERA11.57IP/gs3.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs75BB%13.0
HOU vs RHP
wRC+141 (elite)K%20.8 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)
Hunter Brown R
xERA3.32 (good)K%22.9 (avg)HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA3.12IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs96BB%11.4
TOR vs RHP
wRC+110 (avg)K%14.5 (elite)HH%31.4 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+159+1.5 (-142)O8.0 (-115)HOU-169-1.5 (+122)U8.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR+160+0.5 (+104)O4.5 (-113)HOU-196-0.5 (-135)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTORO3.5 (-104)U3.5 (-122)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)HOUO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJameson Taillon4.5 (+129 / -142)14.5 (-190 / +148)Hunter Brown5.5 (+128 / -158)17.5 (-155 / +130)
Jameson Taillon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@ W4.08046233
W4.08046233Jul 26@ 
L4.06936277
L4.06936277Jul 20vs 
L4.17565244
L4.17565244Jun 7vs 
L1.03522211
L1.03522211Jun 2vs 
L6.19966122
L6.19966122Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs L6.09383233
L6.09383233Jul 31vs 
W5.210456222
W5.210456222Jul 25@ 
W7.09072000
W7.09072000Jul 19vs 
L4.29243644
L4.29243644Jul 10@ L6.09844533
L6.09844533SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jameson Taillon
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU4.16.534.36.31.3(3)
at HOU4.15.494.05.51.5(2)
Hunter Brown
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.32.257.03.01.7(3)
home starts5.15.265.74.03.3(3)
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 3-3 vs HOU this season (6 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 3-3 vs TOR this season (6 games).
- HOU are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-2 in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 4-1 in Hunter Brown's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 6.0 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 7.2 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 4.02 (avg)ERA 4.242d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 2.43 (elite)ERA 2.352d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
- TOR — Jameson Taillon: Barrel% 24% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- TOR — Jameson Taillon: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TOR — Jameson Taillon: avg 3.1 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- TOR — Jameson Taillon: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TOR — Jameson Taillon: recent opponents low-K: SFG 17%, DET 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- HOU — Hunter Brown: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- HOU — Hunter Brown: 2026-07-19: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
LAD @ 
CHC2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldRainy
LAD @ CHCMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Eric Lauer L
xERA3.01 (good)K%17.9 (avg)HH%30.6 (good)Barrel%10.2 (avg)ERA3.12IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs91BB%6.0
CHC vs LHP
wRC+134 (elite)K%30.7 (poor)HH%29.1 (poor)
Shota Imanaga L
xERA3.08 (good)K%19.4 (avg)HH%26.8 (elite)Barrel%5.4 (good)ERA0.92IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs91BB%2.8
LAD vs LHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%16.7 (above avg)HH%42.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD+110+1.5 (-186)O9.5 (-105)CHC-113-1.5 (+160)U9.5 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD+120+0.5 (-118)O5.5 (-108)CHC-150-0.5 (-110)U5.5 (-120)
Team Totals
OverUnderLADO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)CHCO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (-102)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEric Lauer3.5 (-105 / -107)15.5 (-114 / -110)Shota Imanaga4.5 (-125 / -102)17.5 (-150 / +116)
Eric Lauer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@ L4.095111066
L4.095111066Jul 29vs 
W6.08741100
W6.08741100Jul 22@ 
W5.19154133
W5.19154133Jul 6vs 
W6.09936233
W6.09936233Jun 29@ W6.09529133
W6.09529133Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs W5.08968011
W5.08968011Jul 31vs 
L6.210164022
L6.210164022Jul 25@ W6.08444100
W6.08444100Jul 19vs 
W7.09946100
W7.09946100Jul 10@ 
L5.010257111
L5.010257111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eric Lauer
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.013.501.011.00.0(1)
at CHC4.013.501.011.00.0(1)
Shota Imanaga
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD5.15.886.07.01.7(3)
home starts6.11.485.36.00.3(3)
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-4 vs CHC this season (6 games).
- LAD are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD have lost 5 straight.
- LAD are 5-0 in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-0 in Eric Lauer's last 4 away starts.
- LAD average 6.8 runs/game in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 9.0 runs/game in Eric Lauer's last 4 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 4-2 vs LAD this season (6 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 2-3 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 4.2 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 3.6 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 4.85 (below avg)ERA 6.592d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 2.92 (elite)ERA 1.422d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
81°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph SSW
APF 98 — Neutral · Rain possible (21%)
Flags · 4
- CHC bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- LAD — Eric Lauer: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — Shota Imanaga: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- WEATHER: rain risk 21% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
SFG @ TEX2:35 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
SFG @ TEXMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
C. Whisenhunt L
xERA7.87 (poor)K%21.9 (avg)HH%52.5 (poor)Barrel%17.5 (poor)ERA7.71IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs74BB%15.6
TEX vs LHP
wRC+46 (poor)K%28.7 (poor)HH%39.7 (avg)
Cody Bradford L
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
SFG vs LHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%22.4 (avg)HH%42.3 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+160+1.5 (-143)O8.5 (+100)TEX-170-1.5 (+122)U8.5 (-119)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+158+0.5 (+104)O4.5 (-102)TEX-200-0.5 (-135)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderSFGO3.5 (+102)U3.5 (-120)TEXO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UC. Whisenhunt4.5 (+128 / -135)15.5 (+110 / -132)Cody Bradford3.5 (-132 / +115)12.5 (-114 / -116)
C. Whisenhunt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@ L3.17045344
L3.17045344Jul 31@ 
L3.17437466
L3.17437466Jul 26vs 
L5.07875244
L5.07875244Jul 9vs W5.28743422
W5.28743422Jun 17@ 
W5.08526222
W5.08526222Cody Bradford · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs W4.17055200
W4.17055200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
C. Whisenhunt
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX3.111.614.05.03.0(1)
at TEX3.111.614.05.03.0(1)
Cody Bradford
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG4.10.005.05.02.0(1)
home starts4.10.005.05.02.0(1)
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 1-2 vs TEX this season (3 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 2-2 in C. Whisenhunt's last 4 starts.
- SFG are 1-1 in C. Whisenhunt's last 2 away starts.
- SFG average 4.5 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 4 starts.
- SFG average 3.5 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 2 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 2-1 vs SFG this season (3 games).
- TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 4.05 (avg)ERA 3.142d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 4.34 (avg)ERA 5.362d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: Barrel% 18% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TEX — Cody Bradford: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
TBR @ COL✓3:10 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
TBR @ COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Nick Martinez R
xERA3.66 (good)K%10.1 (poor)HH%27.9 (elite)Barrel%8.2 (avg)ERA3.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs79BB%1.5
COL vs RHP
wRC+99 (avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
Tomoyuki Sugano R
xERA6.69 (poor)K%14.1 (below avg)HH%45.0 (below avg)Barrel%15.0 (below avg)ERA2.95IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs87BB%1.4
TBR vs RHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%21.6 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-154-1.5 (-107)O11.5 (-110)COL+148+1.5 (-108)U11.5 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-145-0.5 (-118)O6.5 (-104)COL+124+0.5 (-110)U6.5 (-125)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTBRO6.5 (-104)U6.5 (-120)O3.5 (+114)U3.5 (-145)COLO4.5 (-130)U4.5 (+110)O2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNick Martinez3.5 (-110 / -111)17.5 (-110 / +100)Tomoyuki Sugano2.5 (-119 / +108)15.5 (-108 / -121)
Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@ W5.27546000
W5.27546000Jul 31vs L6.07727066
L6.07727066Jul 25vs 
W6.08454000
W6.08454000Jul 20@ W6.08206111
W6.08206111Jul 10vs W5.17014122
W5.17014122Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs L5.08535233
L5.08535233Jul 31vs 
W6.28325011
W6.28325011Jul 24@ 
W5.19356122
W5.19356122Jul 18vs W6.17736033
W6.17736033Jun 26@ L5.08528177
L5.08528177SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs COL5.21.753.55.50.5(2)
at COL5.20.004.06.00.0(1)
Tomoyuki Sugano
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.09.002.57.01.5(2)
home starts5.83.642.75.30.7(3)
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 3-0 vs COL this season (3 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 4-1 in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 4-1 in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 0-3 vs TBR this season (3 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL are 5-0 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 5.6 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL average 5.2 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 3.292d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 5.02 (below avg)ERA 5.442d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
73°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph NE
APF 113 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- COL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.02 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- COL bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR — Nick Martinez: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TBR — Nick Martinez: 2026-07-31: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 113) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
TBR @ COL o11.5 (-110)
Coors Field with APF 114 is the most extreme hitter's park in baseball. Sugano's xERA is 6.69 (POOR) — one of the worst in the dataset. His HH% is 45%, Barrel% 15%, and recent ERA 5.79. His only matchup vs TBR showed 12.60 ERA. His home park splits are 2.46 ERA in 3 starts which is heavily Coors-sample variance. COL bullpen is terrible: xERA 5.32 (disqualifying for bullpen quality). Martinez is actually solid (recent ERA 2.22, hot), but he's at Coors against a team with mediocre pitching all around, and his own game gets distorted by park. TBR offense is avg (wRC+ 103). COL offense is below avg (wRC+ 91), but COL home avg RS is 5.2 in Sugano's L5 starts and 5.6 RS overall in L10. Over signals strongly aligned: Coors APF 114 ✓, Sugano xERA 6.69 (poor) ✓, Sugano HH%/Barrel% extreme ✓, COL bullpen xERA 5.32 (poor) ✓, Sugano season ERA << xERA gap is reversed (ERA 2.95, xERA 6.69 — MASSIVE luck gap, market setting total too low based on ERA), combined RS trends point toward 10+ runs. The 11.5 line is the highest on the slate and still justified — the Sugano xERA vs ERA discrepancy alone is a massive over signal. TBR has gone 4-1 in SP L5 with avg 4.2 RS on the road. Multiple strong signals align.
LAA @ BAL✓6:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
LAA @ BAL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Reid Detmers L
xERA3.11 (good)K%36.1 (elite)HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA1.65IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs74BB%4.9
BAL vs LHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%24.7 (below avg)HH%54.8 (elite)
Trevor Rogers L
xERA2.39 (elite)K%24.7 (good)HH%38.3 (avg)Barrel%5.0 (elite)ERA3.26IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs80BB%1.2
LAA vs LHP
wRC+105 (avg)K%25.8 (below avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+155+1.5 (-200)O4.5 (-117)BAL-159-1.5 (+168)U4.5 (+105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+120+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-102)BAL-132-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULAAO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+104)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)BALO4.5 (+120)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UReid Detmers7.5 (+123 / +118)16.5 (-121 / -108)Trevor Rogers5.5 (-115 / +106)17.5 (-150 / +116)
Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@ L3.05451000
L3.05451000Jul 28vs L5.08494122
L5.08494122Jul 22vs 
L5.18562211
L5.18562211Jul 17vs L6.08674000
L6.08674000Jul 9@ L4.08267155
L4.08267155Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs L3.25941000
L3.25941000Jul 29@ W6.09468047
W6.09468047Jul 24vs L7.08866022
L7.08866022Jul 18@ W6.19987111
W6.19987111Jul 9vs W6.08945211
W6.08945211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL3.00.005.01.00.0(1)
at BAL3.00.005.01.00.0(1)
Trevor Rogers
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA3.20.004.01.00.0(1)
home starts5.41.674.74.00.7(3)
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 2-2 vs BAL this season (4 games).
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 0-5 in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 3-2 in Reid Detmers's last 5 away starts.
- LAA average 2.2 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 7.2 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 2-2 vs LAA this season (4 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 4-1 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 2-3 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 5.2 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 3.8 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.47 (good)ERA 3.04
BAL
xERA 2.85 (elite)ERA 3.92
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph NE
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
BAL F5 ML (-132)
Trevor Rogers is the best pitcher on the field today: xERA 2.39 (elite), recent ERA 1.05 (HOT), going 6.0+ IP, and owns a 1.88 ERA at home in 3 starts. BAL's offense vs LHP is strong (wRC+ 118, above avg). Detmers is struggling badly — recent ERA 6.00 over last 3 starts despite a good xERA of 3.11, suggesting real regression not just luck. No matchup history cuts both ways, but Detmers' recent form is disqualifying for confidence in him. BAL bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.65). The F5 framing is correct: Rogers is the edge, and you capture both his dominance AND BAL's offensive advantage vs Detmers. LAA bullpen is good (xERA 3.32), but that's irrelevant in F5 context. The -132 price is borderline — hence the line_warning and alt suggestion.
ATH @ CIN6:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
ATH @ CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jacob Lopez L
xERA2.82 (elite)K%28.1 (elite)HH%31.4 (good)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA1.84IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs76BB%12.5
CIN vs LHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%29.7 (poor)HH%47.1 (elite)
Rhett Lowder R
xERA3.75 (avg)K%18.6 (avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA8.10IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs71BB%3.4
ATH vs RHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%18.1 (above avg)HH%39.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+170+1.5 (-152)O8.5 (-115)CIN-181-1.5 (+130)U8.5 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+114+0.5 (-120)O5.5 (-102)CIN-130-0.5 (-108)U5.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATHO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)CINO4.5 (-140)U4.5 (+114)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJacob Lopez5.5 (+115 / -140)14.5 (-158 / +119)Rhett Lowder4.5 (+120 / -143)16.5 (-118 / -110)
Jacob Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@ L2.03962011
L2.03962011Jul 29vs 
L5.19787212
L5.19787212Jul 24@ W5.09141400
W5.09141400Jul 19vs 
L4.18462222
L4.18462222Jul 10@ L1.21210000
L1.21210000Rhett Lowder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs L3.04621111
L3.04621111Jul 30vs W6.09055022
W6.09055022Jul 24@ W5.07641222
W5.07641222Jul 18@ L2.148211088
L2.148211088Jul 12vs L2.0*3010200
L2.0*3010200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jacob Lopez
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN2.04.506.02.00.0(1)
at CIN2.04.506.02.00.0(1)
Rhett Lowder
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH3.03.002.01.01.0(1)
home starts4.53.003.53.00.5(2)
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have lost 6 straight.
- ATH are 1-4 in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 4-1 in Jacob Lopez's last 5 away starts.
- ATH average 3.0 runs/game in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 5.2 runs/game in Jacob Lopez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 2-3 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 3-2 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 3.4 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.2 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 5.35 (poor)ERA 7.64
CIN
xERA 3.80 (avg)ERA 1.74
Weather · Hitter Friendly
87°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph W
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- ATH — Jacob Lopez: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.35 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ATH — Jacob Lopez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-12, 2026-07-08 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: 2026-07-18: 8 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 34) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
NYM @ CLE✓6:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
NYM @ CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Christian Scott R
xERA1.65 (elite)K%32.3 (elite)HH%31.6 (good)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA2.35IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs74BB%6.5
CLE vs RHP
wRC+73 (poor)K%19.2 (above avg)HH%30.0 (below avg)
Tanner Bibee R
xERA3.06 (good)K%16.2 (below avg)HH%29.5 (elite)Barrel%4.9 (elite)ERA3.26IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs87BB%5.0
NYM vs RHP
wRC+71 (poor)K%27.1 (below avg)HH%40.5 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM-257-1.5 (-146)O7.5 (+118)CLE+230+1.5 (+115)U7.5 (-145)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM-115-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-104)CLE-104+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYMO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-135)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)CLEO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChristian Scott5.5 (+128 / -150)15.5 (+105 / -130)Tanner Bibee4.5 (-122 / +100)17.5 (-183 / +140)
Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@ W2.23631000
W2.23631000Jul 29vs L6.09875111
L6.09875111Jul 22@ L3.28964333
L3.28964333Jul 16@ W5.27973000
W5.27973000Jul 8vs W5.09053100
W5.09053100Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs L3.05552022
L3.05552022Jul 31vs 
L7.110033122
L7.110033122Jul 25@ L6.010759233
L6.010759233Jul 20vs W6.09556122
W6.09556122Jul 11@ 
W6.29435411
W6.29435411SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Christian Scott
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE2.20.003.01.00.0(1)
at CLE2.20.003.01.00.0(1)
Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM3.06.005.02.00.0(1)
home starts5.43.354.33.70.7(3)
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 2-3 in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-3 in Christian Scott's last 5 away starts.
- NYM average 2.6 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 3.0 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 4.8 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 5.0 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 1.96 (elite)ERA 1.73
CLE
xERA 3.77 (avg)ERA 4.71
Weather · Neutral Conditions
83°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph NNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- NYM — Christian Scott: 2026-07-22: 3 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: recent opponents low-K: MIN 19%, ARI 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
NYM @ CLE u8.5 (-112)
Christian Scott is elite: xERA 1.65, recent ERA 1.90 (adjusting for the noted 3-ER outlier in one start, other starts are 0 ER), K% 32.3%, averaging 5.1 IP/gs with deep pitch counts. CLE's wRC+ vs RHP is 78 (POOR) and K% only 18.8% — a low strikeout lineup that Scott should suppress via contact management. NYM offense vs RHP is also cold at wRC+ 84. Bibee is struggling recently (ERA 5.00, though partly driven by the 6-ER outlier vs CHW — remaining starts cleaner), but his xERA of 3.06 is solid and CLE's home ERA is a real 5.26 in 3 starts. NYM bullpen is exceptional (xERA 1.90) — among the best in baseball, strongly protecting the under. Both offenses are cold. The market has this at 8.5 which seems too high given Scott's dominance and the poor CLE offense. Under signals: Scott's recent form ≤3.00 ERA ✓, NYM bullpen elite ✓, both offenses cold ✓, neutral park APF 100 ✓. Bibee's struggles are the one against, but with 8.5 to work with, this is a reasonable play.
WSN @ PHI✓6:40 PM · Citizens Bank ParkRainy
WSN @ PHI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jake Irvin R
xERA3.69 (good)K%25.9 (good)HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%13.9 (below avg)ERA3.86IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs52BB%7.4
PHI vs RHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%22.0 (avg)HH%46.9 (elite)
Andrew Painter R
xERA5.54 (poor)K%19.7 (avg)HH%43.9 (below avg)Barrel%12.2 (below avg)ERA9.00IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs53BB%13.1
WSN vs RHP
wRC+111 (avg)K%20.5 (avg)HH%40.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+106-1.5 (+163)O9.5 (+102)PHI-120-1.5 (+168)U9.5 (-126)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+130+0.5 (-113)O5.5 (-113)PHI-160-0.5 (-115)U5.5 (-115)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)PHIO5.5 (+108)U5.5 (-130)O2.5 (-145)U2.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Irvin3.5 (-159 / +126)14.5 (-106 / -110)Andrew Painter3.5 (-162 / +132)15.5 (+104 / -139)
Jake Irvin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@ W1.01610100
W1.01610100Jul 30@ L5.06113255
L5.06113255May 23@ W5.08070100
W5.08070100May 18vs L4.07466123
L4.07466123May 13@ W3.08644456
W3.08644456Andrew Painter · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs L1.02012011
L1.02012011Jul 31@ L6.08263322
L6.08263322Jun 17vs L2.05636266
L2.05636266Jun 12@ L5.0*7836355
L5.0*7836355Jun 6vs L4.29348266
L4.29348266SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jake Irvin
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI3.08.901.74.72.0(3)
at PHI3.08.901.74.72.0(3)
Andrew Painter
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN3.02.954.53.00.5(2)
home starts2.416.252.75.31.3(3)
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 2-7 vs PHI this season (9 games).
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN have lost 7 straight.
- WSN are 3-2 in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 3-2 in Jake Irvin's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 5.6 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 4.0 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 away starts.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 7-2 vs WSN this season (9 games).
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PHI have won 4 straight.
- PHI are 0-5 in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-4 in Andrew Painter's last 5 home starts.
- PHI average 2.6 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 2.8 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 3.77 (avg)ERA 3.702d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
PHI
xERA 4.06 (avg)ERA 4.142d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
80°F, Moderate Showers, Wind 2 mph NE
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- WSN — Jake Irvin: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- PHI — Andrew Painter: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- PHI — Andrew Painter: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- WSN bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- WSN — Jake Irvin: last start: 61 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- WSN — Jake Irvin: 2026-07-30: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- PHI — Andrew Painter: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
WSN @ PHI o9.5 (-115)
Both starters are genuinely terrible right now. Painter: xERA 5.54 (poor), recent ERA 12.33 (STRUGGLING), Barrel% 12%, BB% 13%, ERA 9.00. He's been shelled in every recent start. Irvin: xERA 3.69 (decent at baseline), but recent ERA 8.25 (STRUGGLING), and vs PHI specifically he owns a 7.56 ERA in 3 starts and a 10.00 ERA at CBP in 2 starts — the park/opponent matchup is actively bad for him. WSN offense vs RHP is strong: wRC+ 122 (above avg). PHI offense vs RHP is below avg at wRC+ 84, but Painter is so bad that even a mediocre offense can score against him. CBP is a hitter's park (APF 105). Both bullpens are average (xERA ~3.91-3.94). PHI has gone 0-5 in SP L5 with avg 2.6 RS — their offense is cold, but Painter's extreme struggles should still generate runs. Over signals: both starters have high recent ERA ✓, both starters have bad xERA (Painter 5.54 especially) ✓, park favors offense (APF 105) ✓, WSN offense is solid ✓. The caution is PHI's cold offense (wRC+ 84) and average bullpens. Medium confidence — the Irvin matchup-specific history vs PHI/CBP is a strong additional signal that tips this over.
STL @ NYY✓7:05 PM · Yankee StadiumHitter Friendly
STL @ NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Andre Pallante R
xERA3.25 (good)K%19.2 (avg)HH%29.6 (elite)Barrel%3.7 (elite)ERA2.41IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs89BB%6.9
NYY vs RHP
wRC+63 (poor)K%30.0 (poor)HH%46.9 (elite)
Will Warren R
xERA4.00 (avg)K%29.5 (elite)HH%60.7 (poor)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA5.23IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs57BB%6.8
STL vs RHP
wRC+92 (below avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%44.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+144+1.5 (-156)O8.5 (-105)NYY-150-1.5 (+130)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+124+0.5 (-120)O4.5 (-120)NYY-150-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (-106)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)NYYO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndre Pallante4.5 (-101 / -120)16.5 (-124 / -106)Will Warren4.5 (-111 / -112)16.5 (-102 / +102)
Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30vs L6.19037222
L6.19037222Jul 25vs W7.09082100
W7.09082100Jul 19@ L5.18835233
L5.18835233Jul 9vs L5.09728266
L5.09728266Jul 3@ W5.210225100
W5.210225100Will Warren · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31@ W6.28874000
W6.28874000Jul 26@ L3.06856266
L3.06856266Jul 22vs W0.2*1611100
W0.2*1611100Jul 12@ W5.08324211
W5.08324211Jul 7@ L4.07537266
L4.07537266SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andre Pallante
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY5.07.208.06.03.0(1)
at NYY—
Will Warren
IPERAKHBB
vs STL4.22.143.06.01.0(1)
home starts5.23.507.56.51.0(2)
Trends · STL
- STL are 1-1 vs NYY this season (2 games).
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 2-3 in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL are 3-2 in Andre Pallante's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 7.4 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL average 8.2 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 1-1 vs STL this season (2 games).
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.4 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.4 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 5.042d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 4.802d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
77°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph SSE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- NYY — Will Warren: HH% 61% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- STL bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY — Will Warren: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- NYY — Will Warren: 2026-07-26: 6 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
STL @ NYY o8.5 (-105)
Both starters are currently struggling badly. (1) Andre Pallante: xERA 3.25 (good baseline) but recent ERA is 5.29 — he is clearly underperforming right now. His ERA of 2.41 is FAR below his xERA of 3.25, meaning he has been LUCKY all season; market sets the total based on that deceptively good ERA. But recent form shows 3 ER in 5.1 IP and 6 ER in 5.0 IP in back-to-back starts. The luck is running out. (2) Will Warren: xERA 4.00, recent ERA 7.00 (struggling), season ERA 5.23. The flag notes the 6 ER in 3 IP start may be an outlier, but even his 5 ER in 4 IP vs TBR is concerning. Both starters are genuinely struggling RIGHT NOW. (3) Both bullpens are average to below average: STL xERA 3.74, NYY xERA 4.19. (4) NYY offense vs RHP is only wRC+ 63 (poor, lots of Ks at 30%), but STL offense has been averaging 7.4–8.2 RS in Pallante's recent starts — this team is scoring runs. (5) Yankee Stadium APF 104 slightly favors offense. (6) Both pens are flagged as stressed — managers will leave starters in longer, meaning the struggling starters absorb more innings. (7) Total is 8.5 at -105 — not inflated at all given the situation. This is the clearest over setup of the night: two struggling pitchers, leaky pens, slight offense park, and a total that hasn't moved to reflect the pitching deterioration.
CHW @ BOS✓7:10 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly
CHW @ BOS✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Sean Burke R
xERA2.47 (elite)K%35.7 (elite)HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%7.7 (good)ERA0.96IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs71BB%5.7
BOS vs RHP
wRC+125 (above avg)K%21.0 (avg)HH%31.0 (below avg)
Sonny Gray R
xERA4.39 (avg)K%16.5 (below avg)HH%45.0 (below avg)Barrel%5.0 (elite)ERA5.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs62BB%7.6
CHW vs RHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%24.1 (below avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+220+1.5 (-114)O8.5 (+104)BOS-250-1.5 (-106)U7.5 (-101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW-112-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (+100)BOS-105+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO3.5 (-136)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)BOSO4.5 (+110)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USean Burke6.5 (+122 / -150)17.5 (-150 / +117)Sonny Gray5.5 (+112 / -142)17.5 (-160 / +120)
Sean Burke · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@ L1.01912011
L1.01912011Jul 30vs W6.091103200
W6.091103200Jul 25vs L6.0102104123
L6.0102104123Jul 19@ W6.29852100
W6.29852100Jul 10vs W7.09894011
W7.09894011Sonny Gray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs L1.01310100
L1.01310100Jul 30@ W7.09757244
W7.09757244Jul 25vs L5.075310055
L5.075310055Jul 19vs W6.09155411
W6.09155411Jul 10@ W6.09135111
W6.09135111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Burke
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS3.03.003.03.51.5(2)
at BOS3.03.003.03.51.5(2)
Sonny Gray
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW1.00.001.00.01.0(1)
home starts4.04.503.05.01.7(3)
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 0-4 vs BOS this season (4 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 4-1 in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 4-1 in Sean Burke's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 4.6 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 4.4 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 4-0 vs CHW this season (4 games).
- BOS are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS have won 6 straight.
- BOS are 4-1 in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Sonny Gray's last 5 home starts.
- BOS average 5.0 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 4.8 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 2.92 (elite)ERA 3.08
BOS
xERA 2.73 (elite)ERA 1.85
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph SSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- BOS — Sonny Gray: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- BOS — Sonny Gray: 2026-07-25: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- BOS — Sonny Gray: recent opponents low-K: TOR 15%, ATH 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
CHW @ BOS u8.0 (-105)
Both starters are elite and HOT right now. Sean Burke: recent ERA 0.94 over last 3 starts (HOT), xERA 2.47, going 6.2 IP/gs with big pitch counts (95-98). He's averaging 8.3 K/start. Sonny Gray: recent ERA 1.50 over last 3 starts (HOT), going a consistent 6.0 IP/gs each outing. Both offenses are cold or average: CHW wRC+ 85 vs RHP (below avg), BOS wRC+ 97 vs RHP (average). Both bullpens are excellent: CHW xERA 3.04, BOS xERA 2.81 — both elite, meaning the pen protects the under through 9 innings. Park is Fenway (APF 104), slightly hitter-friendly but not a major concern. The only flag is Gray's HH% 45% and a 5-ER outing on 7/25 that is noted as skewing the ERA — the flag specifically says don't overweight it. Under signals aligned: both recent ERAs ≤3.00 ✓, both xERAs below average (Burke 2.47, Gray 4.39 — Gray is the one concern, but his recent form far outweighs the xERA here), both bullpens strong ✓, both offenses cold/avg ✓, line at 8.0 is reasonable for the market but with BOTH starters genuinely dominant right now, under is the play. Gray's xERA of 4.39 is the one caveat, but his recent 1.50 ERA in consistent 6-inning outings is the stronger signal per data hierarchy.
Sean Burke K o6.5 (+122)
Burke is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now: 5K, 9K, 11K in last 3 starts (avg 8.3 K/start), recent ERA 0.94. His K% is elite at 35.7%. BOS vs RHP has K% 22.3% — average, not a concern. Calibration: Burke's recent 5K outing came vs TOR (K% 15%), 9K vs ATH (K% 17%), 11K vs CLE (K% 19%). All three opponents were BELOW average K% teams. Today he faces BOS at 22.3% K% — ABOVE all three recent opponents. Adjusted expected Ks: take his conservative floor (8+ per game against lower K% lineups) and calibrate UP slightly for a more K-prone BOS lineup. Adjusted expectation ~8.0-9.0 Ks. The line is 6.5 at +122 — that's a gap of ~1.5-2.5 Ks. His last 3 starts all hit at least 5 Ks even in his worst outing. The Outs line of 17.5 (-150) confirms the market expects him to go deep. Everything aligns: high K%, deep workload (6.2 IP/gs), opponent K rate comparable or better than recent opponents, and a line that hasn't caught up to his current dominance. Strong value at +122.
MIA @ ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkRainy
MIA @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Eury Perez R
xERA2.33 (elite)K%23.0 (good)HH%40.8 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA1.89IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs71BB%8.1
ATL vs RHP
wRC+105 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%40.5 (above avg)
Bryce Elder R
xERA4.67 (below avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%13.0 (below avg)ERA2.12IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs66BB%11.6
MIA vs RHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%20.9 (avg)HH%41.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+112-1.5 (+170)O7.5 (+104)ATL-125-1.5 (+178)U7.5 (-126)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-104+0.5 (-148)O4.5 (-118)ATL-115-0.5 (+114)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)ATLO4.5 (+104)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEury Perez5.5 (+108 / -134)16.5 (-110 / -120)Bryce Elder4.5 (-136 / +111)16.5 (-133 / +101)
Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@ L1.01321000
L1.01321000Jul 30@ L6.09763212
L6.09763212Jul 25vs L7.010427133
L7.010427133Jul 19@ L6.09391300
L6.09391300Jul 11vs L6.09968222
L6.09968222Bryce Elder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs L1.0810000
L1.0810000Jul 31vs W6.09334311
W6.09334311Jul 25@ L5.09884412
L5.09884412Jul 20vs W6.07745122
W6.07745122Jul 9@ W4.06935234
W4.06935234SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eury Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL3.47.131.75.01.3(3)
at ATL3.47.131.75.01.3(3)
Bryce Elder
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA4.13.693.73.71.3(3)
home starts4.32.082.73.01.3(3)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-6 vs ATL this season (8 games).
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 1-4 in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 3.0 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 5.4 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 6-2 vs MIA this season (8 games).
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL have won 6 straight.
- ATL are 3-2 in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Bryce Elder's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 4.2 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.0 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 4.20 (avg)ERA 4.74
ATL
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 4.70
Weather · Rainy
76°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph NNE
APF 101 — Neutral · Rain possible (33%)
Flags · 4
- ATL — Bryce Elder: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ATL — Bryce Elder: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- MIA — Eury Perez: low-K outing 2026-07-25 (2 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day
- WEATHER: rain risk 33% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
MIA @ ATL u8.5 (+100)
Eury Perez is absolutely elite right now — recent ERA 0.95 over last 3 starts, HOT, with dominant 7.7 K/start avg and an xERA of 2.33. He goes deep into games (6.3 IP/gs). ATL's wRC+ vs RHP is 108 (not elite), and MIA offense is cold vs LHP at wRC+ 114 — but more importantly, Bryce Elder is the only wildcard. Yes, Elder is struggling (recent ERA 6.43, HH%/Barrel% are alarming), but one sided dominance from Perez is enough to suppress scoring in the first half. The critical edge: MIA's offense vs LHP is actually strong (wRC+ 114) suggesting Elder will give up runs, but Perez will dominate ATL — Perez's dominant side outweighs Elder's struggling side in a game total context, and both bullpens are average (xERA ~3.85). The total of 8.5 seems elevated given how dominant Perez has been. However, Elder is genuinely bad right now. Lean Under is justified but modest — Perez's dominance partially offsets Elder's struggles. This is a 3-signal under: Perez recent ERA far below his xERA (0.95 vs 2.33 = locked in), both bullpens decent, park is neutral (APF 102). Elder's struggles keep this at medium confidence but Perez's half of the game is a strong under signal.
Eury Perez K o5.5 (+108)
Perez has been absolutely dominant: 9K, 6K, 8K in his last 3 starts (avg 7.7 K/start), recent ERA 0.95. His K% is 23.0% and he's averaging 6.3 IP/gs. ATL's offense vs RHP has K% 22.4% — a perfectly average strikeout rate. Adjusting for today's opponent (ATL K% near league avg at 22.4%), Perez's adjusted expected Ks remain well above 5.5 — his worst recent outing was 6 Ks. The low-K flag (2 Ks vs MIL one game, noted earlier in the season) is not from the last 3 starts — his last 3 show 9K/6K/8K. Line is 5.5 at +108, which is genuinely undervalued given that Perez hasn't been held to 5 or fewer Ks in any of his last 3 starts. The matchup vs ATL at Truist (park neutral, APF 102) adds no concern. His pitch counts are high (93-99 pc), confirming he goes deep. Multiple signals align: hot streak, elite K%, K-friendly opponent rate, deep workload. Expected K total ~7.5, line is 5.5 — gap of 2.0 Ks is well above the 1.5 threshold.
MIA ML (+114)
Eury Perez is in historic form (recent ERA 0.95, averaging 7.7 K/start, xERA 2.33 elite) and ATL's Bryce Elder is actively struggling (recent ERA 6.43, xERA 4.67, HH% 50%, Barrel% 13%). Elder has a 5.52 ERA vs MIA over 3 career starts and 5.50 ERA at home over 3 starts — no safe harbor here. MIA offense vs RHP is wRC+ 113 in L12. The main concern is Perez's own matchup history at this park (7.91 ERA in 2 starts at Truist) and MIA's shaky bullpen (xERA 4.20). However, Perez's current trajectory is exceptional and Elder is a genuine liability. At +114, MIA offers clear value given the starting pitcher edge — the underdog price more than compensates for the bullpen risk.
MIN @ KCR✓7:40 PM · Kauffman StadiumRainy
MIN @ KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Dean Kremer R
xERA4.88 (below avg)K%20.9 (avg)HH%34.8 (good)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA10.29IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs84BB%10.4
KCR vs RHP
wRC+96 (avg)K%19.0 (above avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
Noah Cameron L
xERA2.91 (elite)K%21.1 (avg)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%3.8 (elite)ERA3.15IP/gs10.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs95BB%9.2
MIN vs LHP
wRC+85 (below avg)K%20.9 (avg)HH%32.9 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+107-1.5 (+165)O8.5 (-118)KCR-113+1.5 (-198)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+110+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (-118)KCR-135-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-135)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)KCRO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDean Kremer4.5 (-110 / -111)15.5 (-110 / -113)Noah Cameron4.5 (-148 / +129)17.5 (-130 / +109)
Dean Kremer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28@ L4.08148388
L4.08148388Jul 22@ L6.08758166
L6.08758166Jul 17@ W4.08354322
W4.08354322Jul 8vs L5.09246144
L5.09246144Jul 1vs W6.07944111
W6.07944111Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30@ L8.09771200
L8.09771200Jul 24@ L7.0*9782300
L7.0*9782300Jul 19vs L5.09019277
L5.09019277Jul 11@ L7.010095255
L7.010095255Jul 6vs W5.010576511
W5.010576511SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dean Kremer
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.51.621.55.50.5(2)
at KCR4.14.391.08.00.0(1)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN6.30.476.32.71.0(3)
home starts4.49.552.78.03.3(3)
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 4-7 vs KCR this season (11 games).
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 7-4 vs MIN this season (11 games).
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 1-4 in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-3 in Noah Cameron's last 5 home starts.
- KCR average 5.0 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 8.4 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.46 (good)ERA 3.59
KCR
xERA 4.52 (below avg)ERA 4.93
Weather · Rainy
85°F, Light Drizzle, Wind 2 mph WNW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- KCR — Noah Cameron: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-24 — may affect pitch count or availability
- KCR — Noah Cameron: 2026-07-19: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- KCR — Noah Cameron: low-K outing 2026-07-19 (1 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day
MIN @ KCR o8.5 (-118)
Multiple over signals converge here. (1) Dean Kremer has a horrific season ERA of 10.29 and an xERA of 4.88 — both are bad. His recent ERA is improving (4.20) but he's still a well-below-average starter giving up runs. (2) Noah Cameron: his xERA is elite (2.91) but his recent ERA is 6.88 — a significant divergence indicating he is CURRENTLY STRUGGLING despite his underlying quality. The flag notes one skewed start (7 ER, 7/19), but even ignoring that, the 7/26 start (5 ER in 7 IP) is real. Recent ERA >> xERA for Cameron means we should lean OVER on his side. (3) KCR bullpen is below average (xERA 4.52, ERA 4.93) — once Cameron exits early (his recent avg is 5.7 IP/gs but current pitch counts suggest shorter hooks), the pen leaks. (4) KCR home avg RS in Cameron's last 5 starts is 8.4 — extraordinary. (5) Park APF 104 at Kauffman slightly favors offense. (6) MIN bullpen is solid (xERA 3.46) but the starter is giving up runs. The total is set at 8.5 +100 for the under which implies the market leans slightly under — we disagree given two struggling/below-avg starters and a leaky KCR pen. Getting the over at -118 is within range given the strength of signals.
PIT @ MIL✓7:40 PM · American Family FieldRainy
PIT @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Paul Skenes R
xERA3.98 (avg)K%35.6 (elite)HH%48.6 (poor)Barrel%13.5 (below avg)ERA6.06IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs102BB%11.0
MIL vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%19.8 (above avg)HH%42.6 (above avg)
Kyle Harrison L
xERA2.41 (elite)K%27.5 (good)HH%54.3 (poor)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA6.17IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs78BB%3.9
PIT vs LHP
wRC+56 (poor)K%17.0 (above avg)HH%23.1 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+120+1.5 (-205)O7.0 (-108)MIL-126-1.5 (+176)U7.0 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-104+0.5 (-156)O3.5 (-115)MIL-120-0.5 (+120)U3.5 (-113)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO3.5 (+106)U3.5 (-135)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)MILO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-113)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPaul Skenes6.5 (-145 / +126)17.5 (-110 / -107)Kyle Harrison6.5 (+118 / -147)14.5 (-160 / +140)
Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31@ L4.010077455
L4.010077455Jul 25vs L5.1105116255
L5.1105116255Jul 19@ W7.010087211
W7.010087211Jul 12vs W5.18273122
W5.18273122Jul 7vs W6.09548122
W6.09548122Kyle Harrison · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8@ L4.07024033
L4.07024033Jul 3@ W2.27235133
W2.27235133Jun 27vs L5.09293122
L5.09293122Jun 20@ L6.18574022
L6.18574022Jun 14vs W6.08033000
W6.08033000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.43.356.03.31.0(3)
at MIL5.04.805.03.71.3(3)
Kyle Harrison
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.00.0012.01.01.0(1)
home starts5.41.678.03.31.0(3)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 6-3 vs MIL this season (9 games).
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 1-4 in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 8.0 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 6.0 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 3-6 vs PIT this season (9 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 2-3 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 4-1 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 3.4 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 5.4 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 2.93 (elite)ERA 3.312d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 3.08 (good)ERA 3.702d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
74°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph NE
APF 100 — Neutral · Rain possible (31%)
Flags · 9
- PIT — Paul Skenes: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PIT — Paul Skenes: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- MIL bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: 28 days since last start (2026-07-08) — may not be fully stretched out
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: high-K outing 2026-06-27 (9 Ks vs avg 4.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- WEATHER: rain risk 31% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
Kyle Harrison o6.5 Ks (+118)
Harrison has an excellent K% of 27.5% and his recent 3 starts show 9K, 7K, 3K (avg 6.3). The 3K game (vs PHI, 80pc, 6IP) was a contact-oriented day but PHI has a lower K% than PIT. PIT vs LHP has a K% of only 17.0% — but look at this matchup specifically: Harrison vs PIT in 1 prior start: 0.00 ERA, 6.0 IP, 12 Ks. PIT strikes out frequently vs elite lefties despite the team K% looking low. Calibrating: the 3K PHI start pulls the average down but PHI is a lower-K team vs LHP. PIT vs LHP with a 17% team K% is below avg but Harrison's nasty stuff can exceed that. Adjusted expectation: ~6.5–7.5 Ks. The line is 6.5 at +118 — getting plus money on a line right at our expectation's floor is value. The flag about Harrison's last start being 70 pitches / 28-day layoff is a concern for total outs, but the MIL bullpen is stressed and the flag says 'lean SP outs OVER' — suggesting Harrison may be stretched more than normal. Even at 5 innings (15 outs), at 27.5 K%, with PIT's free-swinging tendencies vs good lefties, 6.5+ Ks is reachable. +118 is excellent pricing. Rain risk (31%) is a concern — if the game is delayed/shortened, Harrison may not accumulate Ks. This is noted as a risk but the 31% threshold is not disqualifying per rules; recommend smaller unit given weather uncertainty.
SDP @ ARI✓9:40 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
SDP @ ARI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Casey Mize R
xERA3.09 (good)K%21.3 (avg)HH%42.2 (below avg)Barrel%4.4 (elite)ERA3.00IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs85BB%4.9
ARI vs RHP
wRC+92 (below avg)K%16.1 (above avg)HH%39.7 (avg)
Mitch Bratt L
xERA3.92 (avg)K%12.9 (below avg)HH%32.0 (good)Barrel%8.0 (good)ERA4.91IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs86BB%14.3
SDP vs LHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%52.0 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP-128-1.5 (+119)O8.5 (-110)ARI+120+1.5 (-138)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-138-0.5 (+100)O4.5 (-138)ARI+114+0.5 (-130)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USDPO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)ARIO3.5 (-122)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCasey Mize4.5 (+102 / -128)15.5 (-102 / -122)Mitch Bratt3.5 (+133 / -158)14.5 (-147 / +111)
Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs L6.08533011
L6.08533011Jul 19@ L3.17455111
L3.17455111Jul 11vs L5.29755234
L5.29755234Jul 5@ W6.29445222
W6.29445222Jun 29@ W7.088101000
W7.088101000Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31@ W5.08223411
W5.08223411Jul 25@ L5.09237555
L5.09237555Jul 20vs L4.28448122
L4.28448122Jul 12@ W3.05803333
W3.05803333Jun 24@ W3.05432211
W3.05432211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Casey Mize
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI3.62.505.53.52.5(2)
at ARI6.01.509.04.02.0(1)
Mitch Bratt
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP—
home starts4.24.294.08.01.0(1)
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 4-4 vs ARI this season (8 games).
- SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 4-4 vs SDP this season (8 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 3-2 in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 0-1 in Mitch Bratt's last 1 home starts.
- ARI average 4.6 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 2.0 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 1 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.27 (elite)ERA 3.292d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 3.23 (good)ERA 5.362d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 4
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ARI bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- SDP — Casey Mize: 11 days since last start (2026-07-25) — may not be fully stretched out
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: 2026-07-25: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SDP ML (-122)
Casey Mize is clearly the dominant arm here: recent ERA 2.45 (trending better than his xERA 3.09), great matchup history vs ARI (2.50 ERA in 2 prior starts, 1.50 ERA at Chase Field), and solid pitch-count trend building toward 6+ IP. Mitch Bratt is in acute trouble — recent ERA 5.29 with command woes (BB% 14%), short outings (3.0 IP twice in last 3 starts), and a 0 K outing. SDP offense is productive vs LHP (wRC+ 107). SDP bullpen is elite (xERA 2.27) vs ARI pen (xERA 3.23). Compound edge: dominant starter + strong bullpen + hot offense vs struggling pitcher. ML at -122 is fair value for the overall package.
Casey Mize o4.5 Ks (+106)
Mize averages 6.3 K/start over his last 3 outings and has a K% of 21.3%. ARI has a low K% vs RHP (16.1%), which is below average but his recent K numbers came partly against NYY and TEX — comparable or tougher than ARI's lineup. Adjusted expectation is around 5.5–6 Ks vs ARI, well above the 4.5 line. The 11-day rest note is a mild concern but he's shown no signs of workload issues (pitch counts building nicely). Getting +106 juice for a bet where expectation exceeds the line by ~1.5 Ks is strong value.
SDP @ ARI F5 u4.5 (+106)
Casey Mize is the dominant story here: recent ERA 2.45 vs xERA 3.09 (hot, outperforming), elite walk rate (4.9 BB%), has a 1.50 ERA in 1 start at Chase Field, and 2.50 ERA in 2 career starts vs ARI. ARI offense is below average vs RHP (wRC+ 92, L12) with a low 16.1 K% meaning they put the ball in play but Mize limits hard contact (44.2 HH%, 4.4 Barrel%). On the other side, Mitch Bratt is clearly struggling (recent ERA 5.29) but the key is that Bratt has a 14.3 BB% command problem that typically inflates pitch counts and leads to early exits — the flag notes the bullpen is fresh and manager may hook him early. SDP offense is only avg vs LHP (wRC+ 107), not elite. The F5 Under at +106 is excellent value: we get Mize limiting ARI in 5 innings (high confidence) and take our chances on Bratt's early struggles being contained within Bratt's ~3-5 IP before hooks happen. The +106 price on the under is getting paid to take the under — unusual and creates edge. Note: 11-day layoff flag for Mize is mild concern, but his recent 88pc start 10 days prior showed no fatigue and workload was building (5.2→6.2→7.0 IP trend).
DET @ SEA9:40 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
DET @ SEAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Drew Anderson
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
SEA
No data
Bryan Woo R
xERA3.28 (good)K%27.4 (good)HH%38.3 (avg)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA6.75IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs95BB%8.2
DET vs RHP
wRC+169 (elite)K%18.4 (above avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET+138+1.5 (-164)O7.5 (-108)SEA-144-1.5 (+140)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET+130+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (+108)SEA-164-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO3.5 (+100)U3.5 (-128)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)SEAO3.5 (-145)U3.5 (+116)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDrew Anderson3.5 (+123 / -157)9.5 (+110 / -145)Bryan Woo6.5 (+117 / -140)17.5 (-188 / +150)
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30@ L5.09185255
L5.09185255Jul 25@ L5.09559255
L5.09559255Jul 18vs W6.09876223
W6.09876223Jul 7@ L5.08759134
L5.08759134Jun 30vs W6.110654122
W6.110654122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs DET6.17.387.09.00.0(1)
home starts6.41.887.04.31.3(3)
Trends · DET
- DET are 3-1 vs SEA this season (4 games).
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- DET have won 4 straight.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 1-3 vs DET this season (4 games).
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 2-3 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 5-0 in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 4.0 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.2 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.36 (good)ERA 3.40
SEA
xERA 4.22 (avg)ERA 5.15
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
81°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph NNW
APF 93 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 1
- DET — Drew Anderson: first start of the season — no stats available yet
AI Analysis
Drew Anderson has NO STATS (first start of the season) — this is a hard disqualifying factor; never bet on an unknown first-time starter regardless of other factors. Bryan Woo vs DET presents a 7.38 ERA in 1 prior start but the sample is too small and the unknown DET starter makes full-game analysis unreliable.