AI Picks · 15 Bets · Aug 29
CHW @ MIN o9.5 (+102)
Bailey Ober has a 6.14 xERA over his last 3 starts with a 55.8% hard-hit rate allowed, and Chicago has hit for a 138 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 games and 110 over its last 12. Erick Fedde has thrown 11.2 innings across 3 starts and has not started in 29 days, so Minnesota's 143 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 gets to the Chicago bullpen early. Minnesota's own relief corps has a 4.49 xERA and a 6.57 ERA over its last 12 games in a park that plays at a 106 factor, and 9.5 does not account for two lineups this hot facing this little length.
Found at 7:44 AM ET
Erick Fedde u2.5 Ks (-113)
Minnesota's 13.3 K% vs RHP over their last 6, supported by 16.7 over their last 12, is among the most contact-oriented lineups on this slate, and Fedde's 16.3 K% with a matching 17.9 Whiff% over his last 3 gives him no hidden bat-missing to fall back on. He has managed exactly 2 strikeouts in each of his 2 starts against Minnesota, and his outs line at 13.5 tells you the innings are capped near four and a half after 29 days without a start. The number needs three punchouts from a pitcher who has not reached three against this lineup.
Found at 9:23 AM ET
Sandy Alcantara u4.5 Strikeouts (-123)
Alcantara carries a 10.8 K% and 14.2 Whiff% over his last 3 starts, with 2, 1 and 6 strikeouts in those outings despite going 6.7 innings per start. Across 3 meetings with Washington he has averaged 3.0 strikeouts per start, and the Nationals put the bat on the ball at a 19.1 K% vs RHP over their last 6, 20.6% over their last 12. He is getting deep into games on soft contact rather than swing-and-miss, and five punchouts is a rate he has hit once in his last three tries.
Found at 1:31 PM ET
Martin Perez u16.5 Outs (-125)
Perez has gone 6.0, 5.0 and 4.0 innings over his last 3 starts — 18, 15 and 12 outs, trending straight down — and needed 97 pitches to record those 12 outs last time. He is walking 11.8% of hitters over that window with a 4.57 xERA, and Colorado has lifted to a 111 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 games. Atlanta's bullpen is fresh with a 3.30 xERA over its last 12 games, so there is no reason to stretch him, yet the line still asks for five and a half innings he has reached once in three tries.
Found at 7:44 AM ET
Nolan McLean u5.5 Ks (+115)
McLean carries a 17.1 K% and 19.9 Whiff% over his last 3 starts and has produced 3, 3 and 6 strikeouts in them, an average of 4.0 per outing against a posted line of 5.5. His 14.3 BB% over that window eats pitches without producing outs, and even at the 6.0 IP/gs he has run he is not built to reach six punchouts. Houston's 89 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 gets them out quickly rather than deep into counts, and the market is charging a favorite's price on a number McLean has cleared once in three tries.
Found at 9:23 AM ET
Foster Griffin u17.5 Outs (+120)
Griffin has gone 5.0, 6.0 and 5.0 innings over his last 3 starts — 15, 18 and 15 outs — and averages 5.3 IP per start, with 5.4 IP per start across his last 3 at home. He needed 105 pitches to get through 5.0 innings last time out and walks 9.1% over his last 3, so the pitch count arrives before the sixth. Cleveland's bullpen has a 2.04 xERA over its last 12 with a 32.9 K% and no work in the past two days, giving no reason to push him past 17 outs, yet the number is priced as though six innings is his default.
Found at 1:31 PM ET
BAL @ ATH u9.5 (-105)
Baltimore brings an 87 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 games (93 over its last 12) against Jack Perkins, whose 3.31 xERA over his last 3 starts is far better than his run column suggests. Shane Baz sits at a 3.09 xERA with a 26.4% whiff rate over his last 3, and behind him Baltimore's bullpen has a 2.12 xERA over its last 12 games with a 27.4% strikeout rate, which covers the innings after both starters exit. A 9.5 is a run above where two arms with sub-3.35 expected marks and one clearly cold offense project.
Found at 7:44 AM ET
Shane Baz o5.5 Strikeouts (+122)
Baz has a 22.7% strikeout rate and a 26.4% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, and the Athletics are swinging through pitches at a 28.4% clip over their last 6 games vs RHP with a 26.1% strikeout rate. He has averaged 7.7 strikeouts across 3 career starts against this club, going 11, 7 and 5, and his outs line at 17.5 tells you six innings are expected. His recent totals of 2 and 3 came against Minnesota and Tampa Bay, two of the lowest-strikeout lineups he could have drawn, so plus money on six punchouts against a whiff-heavy offense is the wrong side of the market.
Found at 7:44 AM ET
Jack Perkins u14.5 Outs (+139)
Perkins has thrown 13.7 innings across his last 3 starts — 5.1, 3.0 and 5.0 — which is under five innings a night, and he walks 11.3% over that window. He has not started since August 12, working out of the bullpen on August 18 and 23 instead, so he arrives without a starter's build-up and on a limited count. Baltimore's lineup hits the ball hard at a 46.4 HH% vs RHP over its last 6, and the Athletics' bullpen has not worked in two days, so there is no incentive to stretch him — the market is pricing five full innings as a 61% proposition for an arm that has averaged four and a half.
Found at 1:31 PM ET
C. Sanchez u7.5 Strikeouts (-113)
Sanchez has struck out 7, 6 and 7 over his last 3 starts — never once clearing eight — despite a 26.7 K% and 31.9 Whiff% across that window. The Angels are the wrong lineup to chase a big number against: 16.2 K% vs LHP over their last 6 and 20.8% over their last 12, the most contact-oriented profile he has faced lately. Even at 6.2 IP per start over his last 3 he projects under seven, and the posted 7.5 asks for an outing above his recent ceiling.
Found at 1:31 PM ET
Mitch Bratt u3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Bratt has a 13.0 K% and a 12.0 Whiff% over his last 3 starts — the lowest bat-missing profile on this slate — with 4, 0 and 3 strikeouts in those outings. Length is the bigger problem: he has gone 3.0 innings in each of his last two, needing 69 pitches for the most recent three, and averages 4.0 IP per start over his last 3 with a 13.0 BB%. Four strikeouts requires both a rate and an outing length he has not produced since early August, yet the over is the priced favourite here.
Found at 1:31 PM ET
SFG | 4:05 PM ET Team Total o3.5 (-128)
Kelly has a 7.71 xERA, a 14.1 BB% and a 39.6 HH% over his last 3 starts, allowing 6, 6 and 3 earned runs while averaging 4.9 innings. San Francisco is the most stable good offense on the card against right-handers — 132 wRC+ over its last 6 and 126 over its last 12, with a 45.6 HH% over the last 6 — and seven of nine in today's order bat left-handed against him. With the wind blowing out 17 mph and Arizona's bullpen carrying a 5.17 xERA over its last 12 behind a starter who is walking everyone, four runs is a lower bar than the price implies.
Found at 1:31 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
Carlos Rodon u5.5 Strikeouts (-138)
Boston strikes out just 13.0% of the time vs LHP over its last 6 games, backed by 14.1% over its last 12 — the most contact-heavy matchup on the board. Rodon has averaged only 4.3 innings per start over his last 3 with a 14.5% walk rate, exiting on 76 pitches after 4.0 innings last time, and his outs line at 15.5 confirms a five-inning expectation. Across 3 starts against Boston he has struck out 4, 3 and 6, and his last 3 outings produced 6, 4 and 2. Six strikeouts requires both length he has not shown and swing-and-miss this lineup does not give up, and the price is treating it as close to a coin flip.
Found at 7:44 AM ET
Jake Bennett o4.5 Ks (+100)
Bennett has struck out 5, 6 and 6 over his last 3 starts, clearing this number in every one, with a 23.6 K% and a 27.0 Whiff% over that window that says the strikeouts are earned on missed bats rather than called strikes. New York's 24.1 K% vs LHP over their last 6 sits right alongside 25.3 over their last 12, so this is an established swing-and-miss lineup against left-handers, and his outs line at 16.5 gives him the five-plus innings the rate needs. Even money on a number his last three outings all beat is the mispricing.
Found at 9:23 AM ET
DET Team Total u2.5 (+102)
Detroit has a 60 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 games and 53 over its last 12 — the same bad number in both windows, not a slump — and it draws Blake Snell, who owns a 1.96 xERA, a 35.9% whiff rate and a 7.5% hard-hit rate allowed over his last 3 starts. Snell has gone a full 6 innings in each of those outings while allowing 1, 1 and 0 earned runs, and the Los Angeles bullpen behind him is fresh with a 3.18 xERA and a 30.1% strikeout rate over its last 12 games. Three runs is priced as the likelier outcome here, and against this arm this lineup has not been a three-run offense in a month.
Found at 7:44 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
BOS @ 
NYY✓1:05 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions
BOS @ NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jake Bennett L
xERA3.93 (avg)ERA6.06 (poor)K%23.6 (good)Whiff%27.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%36.7 (avg)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs59BB%6.9 (good)
NYY vs LHP
L6
wRC+135 (elite)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%23.8 (avg)HH%44.7 (above)
L12
wRC+106 (avg)K%25.3 (below)Whiff%28.5 (poor)HH%44.6 (above)
Carlos Rodon L
xERA3.93 (avg)ERA1.38 (elite)K%21.8 (avg)Whiff%27.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%31.4 (good)Barrel%8.6 (avg)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs1.7PC/gs53BB%14.5 (poor)
BOS vs LHP
L6
wRC+167 (elite)K%13.0 (elite)Whiff%21.8 (avg)HH%51.4 (elite)
L12
wRC+132 (elite)K%14.1 (elite)Whiff%19.1 (above)HH%40.3 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.21 (good)ERA 1.17 (elite)
NYY
xERA 2.96 (elite)ERA 2.78 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-175-1.5 (-104)O7.5 (-114)NYY+156+1.5 (-125)U7.5 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-102+0.5 (-148)O4.5 (-102)NYY-120-0.5 (+114)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UBOS3.5 (-122/+100)NYY3.5 (-132/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Bennett4.5 (+100 / -106)16.5 (-125 / +101)Carlos Rodon5.5 (+110 / -138)15.5 (+140 / +132)
Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29@ W1.01100000
W1.01100000Aug 23vs 
W7.08467134
W7.08467134Aug 14@ 
L4.08265144
L4.08265144Aug 8vs 
L5.18855344
L5.18855344Aug 2@ 
W5.28846233
W5.28846233Carlos Rodon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29vs L1.01821011
L1.01821011Aug 23vs 
W4.07622212
W4.07622212Aug 18@ 
W4.06642211
W4.06642211Jun 28@ L5.09661402
L5.09661402Jun 23@ 
W5.18756233
W5.18756233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jake Bennett
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY3.51.27elite1.51.51.0(2)
at NYY1.00.00elite0.00.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29@ W1.01100000
W1.01100000Jun 27vs W6.18733211
W6.18733211Carlos Rodon
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS3.72.41elite3.71.03.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29vs L1.01821011
L1.01821011Jun 28@ L5.09661402
L5.09661402Aug 24vs W5.210331522
W5.210331522home starts3.34.50below3.73.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29vs L1.01821011
L1.01821011Aug 23vs W4.07622212
W4.07622212Jun 17vs 
W5.09977133
W5.09977133Trends · BOS
- BOS are 5-6 vs NYY this season (11 games).
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 2-3 in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 4.6 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 5.0 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 2-3 to the over in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-1 to the over in Jake Bennett's last 3 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 6-5 vs BOS this season (11 games).
- NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 4-1 in Carlos Rodon's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Carlos Rodon's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 5.8 runs/game in Carlos Rodon's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 4.0 runs/game in Carlos Rodon's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 1-1 to the over in Carlos Rodon's last 2 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph WNW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- BOS offense: Whiff% 21.8 (last 6) runs well above what K% 13.0 shows
- BOS — Jake Bennett: recent opponents high-K: ATH 26%, PIT 31%
- NYY — Carlos Rodon: last start: 76 pitches over 4.0 IP
- NYY — Carlos Rodon: recent opponents low-K: BOS 13%, TOR 14%
- TREND: BOS — lost the last game 1-0 (2026-08-28)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
Carlos Rodon u5.5 Strikeouts (-138)
Boston strikes out just 13.0% of the time vs LHP over its last 6 games, backed by 14.1% over its last 12 — the most contact-heavy matchup on the board. Rodon has averaged only 4.3 innings per start over his last 3 with a 14.5% walk rate, exiting on 76 pitches after 4.0 innings last time, and his outs line at 15.5 confirms a five-inning expectation. Across 3 starts against Boston he has struck out 4, 3 and 6, and his last 3 outings produced 6, 4 and 2. Six strikeouts requires both length he has not shown and swing-and-miss this lineup does not give up, and the price is treating it as close to a coin flip.
Jake Bennett o4.5 Ks (+100)
Bennett has struck out 5, 6 and 6 over his last 3 starts, clearing this number in every one, with a 23.6 K% and a 27.0 Whiff% over that window that says the strikeouts are earned on missed bats rather than called strikes. New York's 24.1 K% vs LHP over their last 6 sits right alongside 25.3 over their last 12, so this is an established swing-and-miss lineup against left-handers, and his outs line at 16.5 gives him the five-plus innings the rate needs. Even money on a number his last three outings all beat is the mispricing.
LAD @ DET✓1:10 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
LAD @ DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Blake Snell L
xERA1.96 (elite)ERA1.00 (elite)K%30.4 (elite)Whiff%35.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%7.5 (elite)Barrel%2.5 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs65BB%10.1 (below)
DET vs LHP
L6
wRC+60 (poor)K%24.3 (below)Whiff%18.1 (above)HH%42.6 (above)
L12
wRC+53 (poor)K%24.3 (below)Whiff%20.8 (above)HH%41.1 (above)
Keider Montero R
xERA3.03 (good)ERA4.15 (avg)K%11.4 (poor)Whiff%16.2 (below)
More Stats
HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%8.8 (avg)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs61BB%7.1 (avg)
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+97 (avg)K%19.8 (above)Whiff%21.6 (avg)HH%30.4 (below)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%19.9 (above)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%35.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 3.18 (good)ERA 3.18 (good)2d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.69 (good)ERA 4.47 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-154-1.5 (+117)O6.5 (+100)DET+135+1.5 (-140)U5.5 (+104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-175-0.5 (-122)O3.5 (-148)DET+150+0.5 (-106)U3.5 (+114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD3.5 (-136/+114)1.5 (-160/+124)DET2.5 (-120/+102)1.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBlake Snell6.5 (-122 / +106)17.5 (-167 / +145)Keider Montero3.5 (-110 / -112)15.5 (-132 / +100)
Blake Snell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29@ L1.01220000
L1.01220000Aug 23vs W6.09462300
W6.09462300Aug 17@ 
W6.09052311
W6.09052311Aug 11vs 
W6.084103111
W6.084103111May 9vs 
L3.07756245
L3.07756245Keider Montero · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29vs L1.21710000
L1.21710000Aug 18@ L5.07834133
L5.07834133Aug 13vs 
W6.18803100
W6.18803100Aug 7@ L6.08255355
L6.08255355Aug 2@ W6.08622200
W6.08622200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Blake Snell
IPERAKHBB
vs DET3.03.00good2.02.52.0(2)
at DET1.00.00elite2.00.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29@ L1.01220000
L1.01220000Mar 27vs W5.09225422
W5.09225422Keider Montero
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD1.20.00elite1.00.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29vs L1.21710000
L1.21710000home starts3.83.16good0.74.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29vs L1.21710000
L1.21710000Aug 13vs W6.18803100
W6.18803100Jul 27vs L4.18019146
L4.18019146Trends · LAD
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 3-1 in Blake Snell's last 4 starts.
- LAD are 1-0 in Blake Snell's last 1 away starts.
- LAD average 5.5 runs/game in Blake Snell's last 4 starts.
- LAD average 11.0 runs/game in Blake Snell's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 2-1 to the over in Blake Snell's last 3 starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 2-3 in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET are 4-1 in Keider Montero's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 4.4 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET average 6.4 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 2-3 to the over in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-1 to the over in Keider Montero's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- DET offense: K% 24.3 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 18.1 supports
- LAD bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g)
- LAD — Blake Snell: recent opponents high-K: KCR 32%, PIT 31%
- DET — Keider Montero: 11 days since last start (2026-08-18) news ↗
- DET — Keider Montero: last start: 78 pitches over 5.0 IP
- DET — Keider Montero: 2026-08-07: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.70 ERA equivalent
DET Team Total u2.5 (+102)
Detroit has a 60 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 games and 53 over its last 12 — the same bad number in both windows, not a slump — and it draws Blake Snell, who owns a 1.96 xERA, a 35.9% whiff rate and a 7.5% hard-hit rate allowed over his last 3 starts. Snell has gone a full 6 innings in each of those outings while allowing 1, 1 and 0 earned runs, and the Los Angeles bullpen behind him is fresh with a 3.18 xERA and a 30.1% strikeout rate over its last 12 games. Three runs is priced as the likelier outcome here, and against this arm this lineup has not been a three-run offense in a month.
CHW @ 
MIN✓2:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
CHW @ MIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Erick Fedde R
xERA4.59 (below)ERA3.09 (good)K%16.3 (below)Whiff%17.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs11.2 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs62BB%10.2 (below)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+143 (elite)K%13.3 (elite)Whiff%18.4 (above)HH%38.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%16.7 (above)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%41.5 (above)
Bailey Ober R
xERA6.14 (poor)ERA4.70 (below)K%16.2 (below)Whiff%21.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%55.8 (poor)Barrel%11.5 (below)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs94BB%7.3 (avg)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+138 (elite)K%24.9 (below)Whiff%27.0 (below)HH%31.5 (below)
L12
wRC+110 (avg)K%23.5 (avg)Whiff%28.2 (poor)HH%33.2 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.82 (avg)ERA 3.22 (good)
MIN
xERA 4.49 (avg)ERA 6.57 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+101-1.5 (+155)O9.0 (-112)MIN-108+1.5 (-184)U9.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW-116-0.5 (+114)O5.5 (+108)MIN-108+0.5 (-148)U5.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW4.5 (+102/-120)2.5 (+100/-130)MIN4.5 (+106/-125)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UErick Fedde2.5 (-105 / -105)14.5 (+101 / -104)Bailey Ober3.5 (-166 / +133)15.5 (-119 / +100)
Erick Fedde · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs 
W4.0*5623100
W4.0*5623100Aug 18@ 
L4.2*7853200
L4.2*7853200Aug 13vs 
L3.0*5115244
L3.0*5115244Aug 7vs L1.0*1510000
L1.0*1510000Aug 6@ L0.1*501101
L0.1*501101Bailey Ober · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ 
L5.08734311
L5.08734311Aug 17vs W4.19446122
W4.19446122Aug 11vs L6.010048155
L6.010048155Aug 6@ W6.07406033
W6.07406033Jul 30vs W6.07934223
W6.07934223SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Erick Fedde
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN5.50.82elite2.02.00.5(2)
at MIN5.00.00elite2.02.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 3@ W5.06122100
W5.06122100Mar 29vs W6.07322011
W6.07322011Bailey Ober
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.54.09avg4.57.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1vs L5.06936244
L5.06936244Apr 22vs W6.08768111
W6.08768111home starts5.45.03below3.76.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs W4.19446122
W4.19446122Aug 11vs L6.010048155
L6.010048155Jul 30vs W6.07934223
W6.07934223Trends · CHW
- CHW are 5-3 vs MIN this season (8 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 5-0 in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 4-1 in Erick Fedde's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 9.0 runs/game in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 7.2 runs/game in Erick Fedde's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 to the over in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-2 to the over in Erick Fedde's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 3-5 vs CHW this season (8 games).
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 3-2 in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 3.0 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 3.4 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 2-3 to the over in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 0-3 to the over in Bailey Ober's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
74°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph SSE
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- CHW — Erick Fedde: 29 days since last start (2026-07-31) news ↗
- CHW — Erick Fedde: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-23, 2026-08-18
- MIN — Bailey Ober: 2026-08-11: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.10 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
CHW @ MIN o9.5 (+102)
Bailey Ober has a 6.14 xERA over his last 3 starts with a 55.8% hard-hit rate allowed, and Chicago has hit for a 138 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 games and 110 over its last 12. Erick Fedde has thrown 11.2 innings across 3 starts and has not started in 29 days, so Minnesota's 143 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 gets to the Chicago bullpen early. Minnesota's own relief corps has a 4.49 xERA and a 6.57 ERA over its last 12 games in a park that plays at a 106 factor, and 9.5 does not account for two lineups this hot facing this little length.
Erick Fedde u2.5 Ks (-113)
Minnesota's 13.3 K% vs RHP over their last 6, supported by 16.7 over their last 12, is among the most contact-oriented lineups on this slate, and Fedde's 16.3 K% with a matching 17.9 Whiff% over his last 3 gives him no hidden bat-missing to fall back on. He has managed exactly 2 strikeouts in each of his 2 starts against Minnesota, and his outs line at 13.5 tells you the innings are capped near four and a half after 29 days without a start. The number needs three punchouts from a pitcher who has not reached three against this lineup.
PIT @ 
STL2:15 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
PIT @ STLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
C. Mlodzinski RBULK
Opener: Lake Bachar (RHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA6.86 (poor)ERA11.88 (poor)K%16.7 (below)Whiff%19.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%51.4 (poor)Barrel%2.9 (elite)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs60BB%8.3 (avg)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+83 (below)K%26.4 (below)Whiff%25.7 (below)HH%45.9 (elite)
L12
wRC+90 (below)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%42.9 (above)
Kyle Leahy R
xERA2.28 (elite)ERA0.64 (elite)K%30.2 (elite)Whiff%25.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%2.9 (elite)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs78BB%3.8 (elite)
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+42 (poor)K%30.0 (poor)Whiff%23.9 (avg)HH%24.1 (poor)
L12
wRC+71 (poor)K%26.9 (below)Whiff%23.7 (avg)HH%32.6 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.18 (good)ERA 2.94 (elite)
STL
xERA 3.87 (avg)ERA 6.29 (poor)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+111+1.5 (-190)O8.5 (+102)STL-119-1.5 (+168)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+112+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-102)STL-135-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT3.5 (-135/+106)1.5 (-140/+110)STL3.5 (-154/+120)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UC. Mlodzinski——Kyle Leahy3.5 (-146 / +118)11.5 (-166 / +125)
C. Mlodzinski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L3.0*6145033
L3.0*6145033Aug 17vs L3.05938144
L3.05938144Aug 12@ 
L2.15915344
L2.15915344Aug 7vs L3.06317155
L3.06317155Aug 1@ W3.0*4741100
W3.0*4741100Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ 
L4.06342200
L4.06342200Aug 18@ W5.09063000
W5.09063000Aug 12vs W5.08166011
W5.08166011Aug 7vs W5.08288022
W5.08288022Jul 31@ L6.09836111
L6.09836111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
C. Mlodzinski
IPERAKHBB
vs STL4.12.21elite2.33.71.3(3)
at STL4.12.21elite2.33.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 20@ W5.09514100
W5.09514100Aug 27@ W3.04643311
W3.04643311May 5@ L4.28824022
L4.28824022Kyle Leahy
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.15.29poor7.09.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 28@ W5.18279033
W5.18279033home starts5.32.81elite7.76.70.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W5.08166011
W5.08166011Aug 7vs W5.08288022
W5.08288022Jul 26vs L6.010296122
L6.010296122Trends · PIT
- PIT are 2-6 vs STL this season (8 games).
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 2-3 in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 1-4 in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 4.0 runs/game in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 2.4 runs/game in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-1 to the over in C. Mlodzinski's last 4 starts.
- PIT are 1-1 to the over in C. Mlodzinski's last 2 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 6-2 vs PIT this season (8 games).
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 3-2 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 4-1 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 3.6 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.4 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 1-2 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
88°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph SSE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 9
- OPENER: PIT start Lake Bachar (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 2.1 IP (longest 3.0)), with C. Mlodzinski (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — STL's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: small sample: 8.1 IP over 3 starts
- PIT offense: K% 30.0 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 23.9 supports
- STL bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: 12 days since last start (2026-08-17) news ↗
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-23, 2026-08-01
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: last start: 59 pitches over 3.0 IP
- STL — Kyle Leahy: last start: 63 pitches over 4.0 IP
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
AI Analysis
Pittsburgh's 42 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 against Leahy's 2.28 xERA argues for St. Louis, but the Cardinals are only at 83 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and their bullpen has 6.0 relief innings in the past two days, so the short prices on both the side and the run line are already correct. Leahy's strikeout line of 3.5 is fair for an arm averaging 5.3 per start on a 30.2 K% but going only 4.7 innings, and his outs number of 11.5 is priced for the 63-pitch, four-inning outing he just had. Mlodzinski works behind an opener and the card posts no strikeout or outs market for him.
CIN @ CHC2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
CIN @ CHCMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Andrew Abbott L
xERA4.07 (avg)ERA5.94 (poor)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%9.4 (avg)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs93BB%9.3 (avg)
CHC vs LHP
L6
wRC+94 (below)K%24.2 (below)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%28.6 (poor)
L12
wRC+126 (above)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%19.7 (above)HH%33.3 (below)
Kevin Gausman R
xERA3.73 (good)ERA5.06 (below)K%26.9 (good)Whiff%27.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs91BB%6.0 (good)
CIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+146 (elite)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%21.6 (avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+101 (avg)K%25.5 (below)Whiff%23.4 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 3.84 (avg)ERA 4.04 (avg)
CHC
xERA 4.77 (below)ERA 4.87 (below)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+190+1.5 (-110)O9.5 (+100)CHC-204-1.5 (-101)U9.5 (-113)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+168+0.5 (+110)O4.5 (-138)CHC-195-0.5 (-144)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN3.5 (-120/+100)1.5 (-135/+105)CHC5.5 (+106/-125)2.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Abbott3.5 (-128 / +102)16.5 (-101 / -120)Kevin Gausman6.5 (+128 / -154)17.5 (-126 / -105)
Andrew Abbott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ 
L6.08867244
L6.08867244Aug 18vs L6.19864222
L6.19864222Aug 13@ W4.19337355
W4.19337355Aug 6vs W6.28847233
W6.28847233Aug 1vs L5.09813533
L5.09813533Kevin Gausman · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24@ W7.09463100
W7.09463100Aug 18vs W4.18657233
W4.18657233Aug 13@ 
L4.29377166
L4.29377166Aug 7@ W7.09644122
W7.09644122Aug 1vs W5.29449111
W5.29449111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Abbott
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.52.69elite3.04.32.7(3)
at CHC6.11.96elite5.04.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs L4.07934344
L4.07934344May 5@ L5.29844400
L5.29844400Sep 21vs W4.28625100
W4.28625100Aug 6@ L6.210037244
L6.210037244May 30@ W7.09381100
W7.09381100Kevin Gausman
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN—
home starts4.15.81poor3.38.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs W4.18657233
W4.18657233Aug 1vs W5.29449111
W5.29449111Jul 21vs 
L3.19019245
L3.19019245Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-6 vs CHC this season (8 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 2-3 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-3 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 3.8 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 3.8 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 2-3 to the over in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-1 to the over in Andrew Abbott's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 6-2 vs CIN this season (8 games).
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 4-1 in Kevin Gausman's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-0 in Kevin Gausman's last 2 home starts.
- CHC average 6.6 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 10.0 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 1-2 to the over in Kevin Gausman's last 3 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
83°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SSW
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- CIN — Andrew Abbott: 2026-08-13: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.48 ERA equivalent
- CHC — Kevin Gausman: 2026-08-13: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.29 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
AI Analysis
Cincinnati's 146 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 is a sharp jump from 101 over its last 12 while the Cubs sit at 94 vs LHP over their last 6 against 126 over their last 12, so both lineups are priced off form that is unlikely to hold and neither side nor total offers a gap. Gausman's 6.5 strikeouts is right where his 26.9 K% and 6.0 per start over his last 3 project him against a Reds lineup at 22.4 K% over its last 6. Abbott's 3.5 is undercut by his own history against this club — 2, 4 and 3 strikeouts across 3 meetings — and his outs line of 16.5 matches the 5.6 innings per start he has averaged.
SEA @ TOR3:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
SEA @ TORMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kade Anderson L
xERA2.66 (elite)ERA4.76 (below)K%22.7 (avg)Whiff%26.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%13.3 (below)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs81BB%9.1 (avg)
TOR vs LHP
L6
wRC+102 (avg)K%14.3 (elite)Whiff%18.0 (above)HH%37.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+132 (elite)K%17.0 (above)Whiff%18.3 (above)HH%31.4 (below)
Jose Soriano R
xERA4.72 (below)ERA4.86 (below)K%18.1 (avg)Whiff%20.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs94BB%6.9 (good)
SEA vs RHP
L6
wRC+117 (above)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%23.0 (avg)HH%35.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%23.5 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%36.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.92 (below)ERA 8.02 (poor)
TOR
xERA 3.02 (good)ERA 3.47 (good)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+100-1.5 (+164)O7.5 (-108)TOR-105+1.5 (-190)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA-110-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (+112)TOR-112+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (-120/-105)1.5 (-135/+105)TOR3.5 (-115/-105)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKade Anderson4.5 (-102 / -116)15.5 (+123 / -164)Jose Soriano5.5 (+115 / -141)16.5 (-112 / -114)
Kade Anderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W5.28155233
W5.28155233Jose Soriano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L5.010077355
L5.010077355Aug 18@ W5.29129033
W5.29129033Aug 12vs W6.09044211
W6.09044211Aug 7@ W4.29434312
W4.29434312Jul 26@ W5.08553301
W5.08553301SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jose Soriano
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA5.04.80below6.05.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30@ L5.09196133
L5.09196133Sep 11@ L4.09645334
L4.09645334Jul 25vs W6.08754122
W6.08754122home starts5.34.50below5.04.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W6.09044211
W6.09044211Jul 20vs W7.09574122
W7.09574122Jun 24vs W3.06946255
W3.06946255Trends · SEA
- SEA are 2-2 vs TOR this season (4 games).
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 1-0 in Kade Anderson's last 1 starts.
- SEA average 5.0 runs/game in Kade Anderson's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 2-2 vs SEA this season (4 games).
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Jose Soriano's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 1-1 in Jose Soriano's last 2 home starts.
- TOR average 5.0 runs/game in Jose Soriano's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.5 runs/game in Jose Soriano's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 4-0 to the over in Jose Soriano's last 4 starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
77°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph S
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- SEA — Kade Anderson: small sample: 5.2 IP over 3 starts
- TOR bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- TOR — Jose Soriano: 2026-08-23: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.35 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
Anderson has thrown only 5.2 innings across three starts this season, which is too thin a base to bet a side or the 7.5 total, and Soriano's 4.72 xERA over his last 3 against a Seattle lineup at 117 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 is already reflected in a pick'em moneyline. Anderson's 4.5 strikeouts asks for better than a strikeout per inning against a Blue Jays lineup at a 14.3 K% vs LHP over its last 6, and his outs line of 15.5 is priced to -164 on the under for a pitcher averaging 5.7 innings. Soriano's 5.5 strikeouts matches his 4.3 per start and his 6.0 per start across 3 meetings with Seattle, and his 16.5 outs is exactly the depth he has gone in each of his last three.
ARI @ SFG4:05 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
ARI @ SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Merrill Kelly R
xERA7.71 (poor)ERA9.20 (poor)K%11.3 (poor)Whiff%20.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%11.3 (below)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs85BB%14.1 (poor)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+132 (elite)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%19.4 (above)HH%45.6 (elite)
L12
wRC+126 (above)K%25.3 (below)Whiff%23.3 (avg)HH%44.2 (above)
Matt Wilkinson L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
ARI vs LHP
L6
wRC+89 (below)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%19.4 (above)HH%43.6 (above)
L12
wRC+121 (above)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%18.8 (above)HH%37.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 5.17 (below)ERA 4.79 (below)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.90 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI-106-1.5 (+158)O8.5 (+102)SFG-101+1.5 (-179)U8.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-106+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-115)SFG-118-0.5 (+118)U4.5 (-113)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI4.5 (+114/+112)2.5 (+124/-160)SFG3.5 (-128/+110)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMerrill Kelly4.5 (+130 / +133)17.5 (+100 / -105)Matt Wilkinson3.5 (+134 / +140)14.5 (-126 / -105)
Merrill Kelly · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24vs L5.29945333
L5.29945333Aug 18@ L4.08627466
L4.08627466Aug 12vs L5.07126366
L5.07126366Aug 7vs W5.28042411
W5.28042411Aug 2@ L5.09658455
L5.09658455SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Merrill Kelly
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.33.79avg3.75.71.7(3)
at SFG7.01.93elite6.06.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 25@ W7.09644222
W7.09644222May 20vs W6.08548033
W6.08548033Jul 2vs L6.09235333
L6.09235333May 12@ W7.010388011
W7.010388011Trends · ARI
- ARI are 9-2 vs SFG this season (11 games).
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 2.4 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 2.0 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 1-4 to the over in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 to the over in Merrill Kelly's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 2-9 vs ARI this season (11 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Windy
62°F, Clear, Wind 17 mph WNW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- SFG — Matt Wilkinson: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: Whiff% 20.6 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 11.3 shows
- ARI bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.17 over its last 12
- SFG bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- WEATHER: wind Blowing Out 17 mph from the WNW
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL West)
MIA @ WSN✓4:05 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
MIA @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Sandy Alcantara R
xERA3.36 (good)ERA2.25 (elite)K%10.8 (poor)Whiff%14.2 (below)
More Stats
HH%28.4 (elite)Barrel%3.0 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs101BB%8.4 (avg)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+124 (above)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%19.9 (above)HH%28.7 (poor)
L12
wRC+88 (below)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%30.4 (below)
Cade Cavalli R
xERA2.36 (elite)ERA0.90 (elite)K%38.9 (elite)Whiff%31.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%52.5 (poor)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs93BB%5.6 (good)
MIA vs RHP
L6
wRC+119 (above)K%16.7 (above)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%38.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 2.96 (elite)ERA 4.41 (avg)
WSN
xERA 3.68 (good)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-102-1.5 (+152)O8.0 (-105)WSN+101+1.5 (-177)U8.0 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+108+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (-132)WSN-130-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (+102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA3.5 (-132/+110)1.5 (-120/-110)WSN3.5 (-128/+105)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USandy Alcantara4.5 (+118 / -123)20.5 (+118 / -112)Cade Cavalli6.5 (+120 / -142)17.5 (-155 / +118)
Sandy Alcantara · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24vs L7.010266211
L7.010266211Aug 19@ L6.09718133
L6.09718133Aug 14@ L7.010323411
L7.010323411Aug 8vs 
W7.010883100
W7.010883100Aug 2@ W6.010254200
W6.010254200Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24vs W6.09375122
W6.09375122Aug 19@ 
W6.084113100
W6.084113100Aug 13vs W8.0103101200
W8.0103101200Aug 7vs W6.010087233
W6.010087233Aug 2@ L6.09036123
L6.09036123SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sandy Alcantara
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN6.14.45avg3.05.72.0(3)
at WSN7.03.86avg5.07.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 1@ W7.09557033
W7.09557033May 10vs W6.08935222
W6.08935222Apr 12vs W5.28715444
W5.28715444Cade Cavalli
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.13.55good3.75.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 1vs L5.08965322
L5.08965322May 10@ L5.29544122
L5.29544122Sep 8@ W5.06116122
W5.06116122home starts6.72.25elite8.34.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24vs W6.09375122
W6.09375122Aug 13vs W8.0103101200
W8.0103101200Aug 7vs W6.010087233
W6.010087233Trends · MIA
- MIA are 8-2 vs WSN this season (10 games).
- MIA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-4 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 2.4 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 1.2 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 1-4 to the over in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 0-3 to the over in Sandy Alcantara's last 3 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 2-8 vs MIA this season (10 games).
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 4-1 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 4-1 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 6.6 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 7.2 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 2-3 to the over in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-1 to the over in Cade Cavalli's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Clear, Wind 3 mph SSE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- WSN bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g)
- MIA — Sandy Alcantara: last start: 102 pitches over 7.0 IP
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
Sandy Alcantara u4.5 Strikeouts (-123)
Alcantara carries a 10.8 K% and 14.2 Whiff% over his last 3 starts, with 2, 1 and 6 strikeouts in those outings despite going 6.7 innings per start. Across 3 meetings with Washington he has averaged 3.0 strikeouts per start, and the Nationals put the bat on the ball at a 19.1 K% vs RHP over their last 6, 20.6% over their last 12. He is getting deep into games on soft contact rather than swing-and-miss, and five punchouts is a rate he has hit once in his last three tries.
COL @ ATL✓4:10 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
COL @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Ryan Feltner R
xERA5.22 (below)ERA8.04 (poor)K%14.1 (below)Whiff%21.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%28.1 (elite)Barrel%8.8 (avg)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs93BB%12.8 (below)
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+111 (avg)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%24.7 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+84 (below)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%40.9 (above)
Martin Perez L
xERA4.57 (below)ERA3.00 (good)K%10.3 (poor)Whiff%17.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.7 (avg)Barrel%1.9 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs87BB%11.8 (below)
COL vs LHP
L6
wRC+111 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%22.2 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%33.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.67 (below)ERA 3.83 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.30 (good)ERA 2.57 (elite)2d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+206+1.5 (-105)O8.5 (-120)ATL-220-1.5 (-110)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+170+0.5 (+114)O5.5 (+112)ATL-215-0.5 (-148)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (+102/-125)1.5 (-130/+100)ATL4.5 (-142/+114)2.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Feltner3.5 (-116 / +106)15.5 (-102 / -130)Martin Perez4.5 (+115 / -123)16.5 (+104 / -120)
Ryan Feltner · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24@ L5.210366457
L5.210366457Aug 18vs L5.08338377
L5.08338377Aug 12@ W5.09327322
W5.09327322Aug 7@ L5.19125333
L5.19125333Aug 1vs W6.08738144
W6.08738144Martin Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ 
L4.09724314
L4.09724314Aug 17@ L5.08239244
L5.08239244Aug 11vs W6.08224300
W6.08224300Aug 6vs W3.03530100
W3.03530100Aug 1vs W7.07861200
W7.07861200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Feltner
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL4.210.71poor4.010.01.0(1)
at ATL—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 28vs L4.295410155
L4.295410155Martin Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs COL—
home starts5.30.00elite3.71.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs W6.08224300
W6.08224300Aug 6vs W3.03530100
W3.03530100Aug 1vs W7.07861200
W7.07861200Trends · COL
- COL are 0-4 vs ATL this season (4 games).
- COL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 2-3 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-4 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 5.8 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL average 3.6 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 3-2 to the over in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-2 to the over in Ryan Feltner's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 4-0 vs COL this season (4 games).
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL have won 5 straight.
- ATL are 3-2 in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Martin Perez's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 5.2 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 7.8 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 2-3 to the over in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-1 to the over in Martin Perez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
85°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 4 mph SSE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- ATL — Martin Perez: Whiff% 17.1 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 10.3 shows
- ATL bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g)
- COL — Ryan Feltner: last start: 103 pitches over 5.2 IP
- ATL — Martin Perez: 2026-08-17: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.12 ERA equivalent
Martin Perez u16.5 Outs (-125)
Perez has gone 6.0, 5.0 and 4.0 innings over his last 3 starts — 18, 15 and 12 outs, trending straight down — and needed 97 pitches to record those 12 outs last time. He is walking 11.8% of hitters over that window with a 4.57 xERA, and Colorado has lifted to a 111 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 games. Atlanta's bullpen is fresh with a 3.30 xERA over its last 12 games, so there is no reason to stretch him, yet the line still asks for five and a half innings he has reached once in three tries.
KCR @ CLE✓4:10 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
KCR @ CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Daniel Lynch L
xERA6.72 (poor)ERA5.06 (below)K%14.3 (below)Whiff%10.6 (poor)
More Stats
HH%51.5 (poor)Barrel%12.1 (below)IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs48BB%7.1 (avg)
CLE vs LHP
L6
wRC+70 (poor)K%29.7 (poor)Whiff%27.9 (below)HH%41.7 (above)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%22.2 (avg)HH%42.9 (above)
Foster Griffin L
xERA5.10 (below)ERA2.25 (elite)K%19.7 (avg)Whiff%14.6 (below)
More Stats
HH%38.3 (avg)Barrel%10.6 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs96BB%9.1 (avg)
KCR vs LHP
L6
wRC+52 (poor)K%31.7 (poor)Whiff%36.7 (poor)HH%41.7 (above)
L12
wRC+141 (elite)K%16.7 (above)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%40.2 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.09 (avg)ERA 3.58 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 2.04 (elite)ERA 1.44 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+150+1.5 (-157)O8.0 (-105)CLE-158-1.5 (+132)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+124+0.5 (-125)O4.5 (+108)CLE-152-0.5 (-104)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR3.5 (+100/-120)1.5 (-130/+100)CLE4.5 (+114/-135)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDaniel Lynch2.5 (-104 / -122)12.5 (-105 / +102)Foster Griffin5.5 (+112 / -114)17.5 (-160 / +120)
Daniel Lynch · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W4.15924122
W4.15924122Aug 18vs W4.04512211
W4.04512211Aug 12@ L2.13933033
L2.13933033Aug 7vs L1.23523234
L1.23523234Aug 4vs W1.0*1111000
W1.0*1111000Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ W5.010545322
W5.010545322Aug 18vs W6.010165211
W6.010165211Aug 12@ W5.08334113
W5.08334113Aug 6vs L4.08867255
L4.08867255Jul 31@ L5.17839266
L5.17839266SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Foster Griffin
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR6.01.50elite6.06.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 16vs W6.010066211
W6.010066211home starts5.45.00below4.76.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs W6.010165211
W6.010165211Aug 6vs L4.08867255
L4.08867255Jul 25vs W6.210826133
W6.210826133Trends · KCR
- KCR are 4-4 vs CLE this season (8 games).
- KCR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-2 in Daniel Lynch's last 4 starts.
- KCR are 0-1 in Daniel Lynch's last 1 away starts.
- KCR average 5.2 runs/game in Daniel Lynch's last 4 starts.
- KCR average 2.0 runs/game in Daniel Lynch's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 4-4 vs KCR this season (8 games).
- CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-1 in Foster Griffin's last 4 starts.
- CLE are 1-1 in Foster Griffin's last 2 home starts.
- CLE average 6.8 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 4 starts.
- CLE average 7.0 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-1 to the over in Foster Griffin's last 3 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph SW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- KCR — Daniel Lynch: avg 3.6 IP/gs over his last 3
- KCR — Daniel Lynch: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-04, 2026-07-29
- KCR — Daniel Lynch: last start: 59 pitches over 4.1 IP
- KCR — Daniel Lynch: 2026-08-12: 3 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.32 ERA equivalent
- KCR — Daniel Lynch: recent opponents high-K: LAD 25%, ATH 26%
- CLE — Foster Griffin: last start: 105 pitches over 5.0 IP
- TREND: CLE — was shut out 3-0 last time out (2026-08-28)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
Foster Griffin u17.5 Outs (+120)
Griffin has gone 5.0, 6.0 and 5.0 innings over his last 3 starts — 15, 18 and 15 outs — and averages 5.3 IP per start, with 5.4 IP per start across his last 3 at home. He needed 105 pitches to get through 5.0 innings last time out and walks 9.1% over his last 3, so the pitch count arrives before the sixth. Cleveland's bullpen has a 2.04 xERA over its last 12 with a 32.9 K% and no work in the past two days, giving no reason to push him past 17 outs, yet the number is priced as though six innings is his default.
HOU @ NYM✓4:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
HOU @ NYM✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Cristian Javier RBULK
Opener: Bennett Sousa (LHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA5.83 (poor)ERA6.23 (poor)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%30.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%39.0 (avg)Barrel%12.2 (below)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs88BB%6.7 (good)
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+101 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)Whiff%22.3 (avg)HH%44.9 (above)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%42.4 (above)
Nolan McLean R
xERA3.33 (good)ERA1.00 (elite)K%17.1 (avg)Whiff%19.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs93BB%14.3 (poor)
HOU vs RHP
L6
wRC+89 (below)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%24.8 (avg)HH%42.7 (above)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%25.5 (below)Whiff%24.4 (avg)HH%39.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 4.08 (avg)ERA 5.54 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 2.32 (elite)ERA 2.55 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+132+1.5 (-172)O8.0 (-108)NYM-140-1.5 (+150)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU+132+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-108)NYM-160-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU3.5 (-115/-110)1.5 (-130/+100)NYM4.5 (+110/-138)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCristian Javier——Nolan McLean5.5 (-130 / +114)17.5 (-167 / +135)
Cristian Javier · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L4.09084233
L4.09084233Aug 18vs L4.08755122
L4.08755122Aug 9@ L5.08628144
L5.08628144Aug 3vs L6.08527033
L6.08527033Jul 27@ W5.0*7073000
W5.0*7073000Nolan McLean · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L6.09261400
L6.09261400Aug 17vs W6.010336411
W6.010336411Aug 11@ L6.08531211
L6.08531211Aug 6@ W5.09488355
W5.09488355Jul 30vs W6.19966222
W6.19966222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nolan McLean
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU—
home starts6.02.49elite5.36.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs W6.010336411
W6.010336411Jul 30vs W6.19966222
W6.19966222Jul 25vs L6.09677224
L6.09677224Trends · HOU
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 0-5 in Cristian Javier's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 0-4 in Cristian Javier's last 4 away starts.
- HOU average 3.0 runs/game in Cristian Javier's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 3.0 runs/game in Cristian Javier's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 0-3 to the over in Cristian Javier's last 3 starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 3-2 in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-3 in Nolan McLean's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 4.0 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 2.8 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 2-3 to the over in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-2 to the over in Nolan McLean's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 3 mph NNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- OPENER: HOU start Bennett Sousa (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 0.9 IP (longest 1.7)), with Cristian Javier (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — NYM's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- HOU bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- HOU — Cristian Javier: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27, 2026-07-19
- HOU — Cristian Javier: low-K outing 2026-08-09 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- HOU — Cristian Javier: recent opponents high-K: LAA 32%, ATH 26%
Nolan McLean u5.5 Ks (+115)
McLean carries a 17.1 K% and 19.9 Whiff% over his last 3 starts and has produced 3, 3 and 6 strikeouts in them, an average of 4.0 per outing against a posted line of 5.5. His 14.3 BB% over that window eats pitches without producing outs, and even at the 6.0 IP/gs he has run he is not built to reach six punchouts. Houston's 89 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 gets them out quickly rather than deep into counts, and the market is charging a favorite's price on a number McLean has cleared once in three tries.
SDP @ TBR4:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
SDP @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Walker Buehler R
xERA2.61 (elite)ERA2.00 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%16.8 (below)
More Stats
HH%23.4 (elite)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs90BB%6.2 (good)
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+89 (below)K%13.9 (elite)Whiff%18.0 (above)HH%34.1 (below)
L12
wRC+95 (avg)K%16.7 (above)Whiff%19.6 (above)HH%33.3 (below)
Nick Martinez R
xERA2.50 (elite)ERA4.82 (below)K%18.9 (avg)Whiff%14.4 (below)
More Stats
HH%34.5 (good)Barrel%5.2 (good)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs90BB%2.7 (elite)
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+98 (avg)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%44.1 (above)
L12
wRC+104 (avg)K%18.4 (above)Whiff%23.9 (avg)HH%41.0 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.76 (elite)ERA 2.28 (elite)
TBR
xERA 3.75 (good)ERA 4.66 (below)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+119+1.5 (-188)O8.0 (-105)TBR-126-1.5 (+157)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+118+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (+100)TBR-145-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP3.5 (-122/-104)1.5 (-140/+110)TBR3.5 (-145/+118)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWalker Buehler3.5 (+130 / -156)15.5 (+151 / -203)Nick Martinez3.5 (+125 / -150)17.5 (+100 / -119)
Walker Buehler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W6.08644011
W6.08644011Aug 17@ L6.08642222
L6.08642222Aug 11vs W6.09853211
W6.09853211Aug 6@ W4.07636111
W4.07636111Aug 1vs W4.17918233
W4.17918233Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ W6.08641000
W6.08641000Aug 18vs L3.28259266
L3.28259266Aug 11@ W9.010158044
W9.010158044Aug 5@ W5.27546000
W5.27546000Jul 31vs L6.07727066
L6.07727066SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Walker Buehler
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR6.04.00avg4.04.72.3(3)
at TBR5.03.60good3.03.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 10vs W6.09225333
W6.09225333Jun 11vs W7.09776133
W7.09776133Apr 15@ W5.08933322
W5.08933322Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP8.01.12elite6.01.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs W8.011261211
W8.011261211home starts5.17.11poor4.06.70.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs L3.28259266
L3.28259266Jul 31vs L6.07727066
L6.07727066Jul 25vs W6.08454000
W6.08454000Trends · SDP
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 4-1 in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 3-2 in Walker Buehler's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 6.2 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 4.4 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 3-2 to the over in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-2 to the over in Walker Buehler's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-2 in Nick Martinez's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 5.0 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 4.4 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-2 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 2
- SDP — Walker Buehler: recent opponents low-K: MIL 18%, MIN 13%
- TBR — Nick Martinez: 2026-08-18: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.00 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
Buehler at a 2.61 xERA and Martinez at a 2.50 xERA over their last 3 face two lineups under 100 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, and the total at 8.0 with a near-even moneyline already reflects that. Buehler's 3.5 strikeouts is priced heavily to the under at -156 for a pitcher with a 16.8 Whiff% facing a Rays lineup that strikes out just 13.9% vs RHP over its last 6, leaving nothing on either side, and his outs line of 15.5 is juiced to -203 despite six innings in each of his last three. Martinez's 3.5 strikeouts sits right on his 4.7 per start with the same under juice, and his 17.5 outs is fair after outings of 9.0, 3.2 and 6.0 innings.
BOS @ NYY✓7:15 PM · Yankee Stadium
BOS @ NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Brayan Bello R
xERA3.74 (good)ERA2.53 (elite)K%18.2 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%43.8 (below)Barrel%3.1 (elite)IP/gs10.2 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs56BB%6.8 (good)
NYY vs RHP
L6
wRC+105 (avg)K%26.2 (below)Whiff%24.8 (avg)HH%41.4 (above)
L12
wRC+91 (below)K%28.9 (poor)Whiff%25.9 (below)HH%43.3 (above)
Max Fried L
xERA2.51 (elite)ERA1.08 (elite)K%29.5 (elite)Whiff%26.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%31.6 (good)Barrel%2.6 (elite)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs85BB%8.2 (avg)
BOS vs LHP
L6
wRC+167 (elite)K%13.0 (elite)Whiff%21.8 (avg)HH%51.4 (elite)
L12
wRC+132 (elite)K%14.1 (elite)Whiff%19.1 (above)HH%40.3 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.21 (good)ERA 1.17 (elite)
NYY
xERA 2.96 (elite)ERA 2.78 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS+119+1.5 (-192)O7.5 (-114)NYY-126-1.5 (+163)U7.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS+124+0.5 (-128)O3.5 (-146)NYY-150-0.5 (-102)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS3.5 (-115/-111)1.5 (-120/-110)NYY3.5 (-135/+112)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrayan Bello——Max Fried4.5 (-132 / +104)13.5 (-110 / -130)
Brayan Bello · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24@ W2.0*4212211
W2.0*4212211Aug 17vs W4.2*7633111
W4.2*7633111Aug 9vs L4.0*5143011
L4.0*5143011Aug 6vs W2.0*2813101
W2.0*2813101Aug 4vs W3.0*2820000
W3.0*2820000Max Fried · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13vs L5.08845211
L5.08845211Aug 7vs W6.19073200
W6.19073200Aug 1@ L5.17872111
L5.17872111Jul 27@ W3.06645233
W3.06645233Jul 22vs W5.05771100
W5.05771100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brayan Bello
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.31.89elite5.73.72.3(3)
at NYY7.00.00elite5.03.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 13vs L5.09245344
L5.09245344Aug 22@ W7.09253100
W7.09253100Jun 15vs W7.011483300
W7.011483300Max Fried
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS6.40.94elite7.35.32.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 22@ W8.010093200
W8.010093200Sep 13@ W5.110569222
W5.110569222Aug 22vs L6.09974300
L6.09974300home starts5.40.56elite6.03.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13vs L5.08845211
L5.08845211Aug 7vs W6.19073200
W6.19073200Jul 22vs W5.05771100
W5.05771100Trends · BOS
- BOS are 5-6 vs NYY this season (11 games).
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 0-5 in Brayan Bello's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 1-4 in Brayan Bello's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 1.6 runs/game in Brayan Bello's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 3.2 runs/game in Brayan Bello's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 1-1 to the over in Brayan Bello's last 2 starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 6-5 vs BOS this season (11 games).
- NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Max Fried's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Max Fried's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Max Fried's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Max Fried's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 to the over in Max Fried's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 0-3 to the over in Max Fried's last 3 home starts.
Weather
71°F, Wind 3 mph WNW
Flags · 7
- BOS offense: Whiff% 21.8 (last 6) runs well above what K% 13.0 shows
- BOS — Brayan Bello: 86 days since last start (2026-06-04) news ↗
- BOS — Brayan Bello: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-24, 2026-08-17
- BOS — Brayan Bello: last start: 108 pitches over 5.0 IP
- NYY — Max Fried: 16 days since last start (2026-08-13) news ↗
- TREND: BOS — lost the last game 1-0 (2026-08-28)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
Carlos Rodon u5.5 Strikeouts (-138)
Boston strikes out just 13.0% of the time vs LHP over its last 6 games, backed by 14.1% over its last 12 — the most contact-heavy matchup on the board. Rodon has averaged only 4.3 innings per start over his last 3 with a 14.5% walk rate, exiting on 76 pitches after 4.0 innings last time, and his outs line at 15.5 confirms a five-inning expectation. Across 3 starts against Boston he has struck out 4, 3 and 6, and his last 3 outings produced 6, 4 and 2. Six strikeouts requires both length he has not shown and swing-and-miss this lineup does not give up, and the price is treating it as close to a coin flip.
Jake Bennett o4.5 Ks (+100)
Bennett has struck out 5, 6 and 6 over his last 3 starts, clearing this number in every one, with a 23.6 K% and a 27.0 Whiff% over that window that says the strikeouts are earned on missed bats rather than called strikes. New York's 24.1 K% vs LHP over their last 6 sits right alongside 25.3 over their last 12, so this is an established swing-and-miss lineup against left-handers, and his outs line at 16.5 gives him the five-plus innings the rate needs. Even money on a number his last three outings all beat is the mispricing.
TEX @ MIL7:15 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
TEX @ MILMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Cal Quantrill R
xERA2.20 (elite)ERA0.50 (elite)K%23.9 (good)Whiff%20.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs91BB%4.2 (elite)
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+151 (elite)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%42.7 (above)
L12
wRC+149 (elite)K%19.6 (above)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%49.1 (elite)
Shane Drohan L
xERA3.81 (avg)ERA3.65 (good)K%20.4 (avg)Whiff%23.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%5.7 (good)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs69BB%14.8 (poor)
TEX vs LHP
L6
wRC+145 (elite)K%19.8 (above)Whiff%21.3 (avg)HH%46.9 (elite)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%21.4 (avg)Whiff%20.8 (above)HH%44.4 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.97 (avg)ERA 5.01 (below)
MIL
xERA 2.16 (elite)ERA 0.82 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+150+1.5 (-152)O8.0 (-112)MIL-156-1.5 (+136)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+128+0.5 (-115)O4.5 (-106)MIL-160-0.5 (-113)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX3.5 (-108/-115)1.5 (-135/+105)MIL4.5 (+105/-132)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCal Quantrill3.5 (-130 / +111)15.5 (+130 / -140)Shane Drohan5.5 (+103 / -115)15.5 (-123 / +102)
Cal Quantrill · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W6.09666000
W6.09666000Aug 18vs W7.09154000
W7.09154000Aug 12@ L5.08564311
L5.08564311Aug 8vs W1.0*1000000
W1.0*1000000Aug 3vs L6.08744113
L6.08744113Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L5.08358322
L5.08358322Aug 18vs W2.0*3911200
W2.0*3911200Aug 13@ W5.18553333
W5.18553333Aug 7vs L5.09449466
L5.09449466Jul 31@ W6.08674122
W6.08674122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cal Quantrill
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL4.13.29good5.04.50.5(2)
at MIL5.01.80elite4.03.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ W5.06543011
W5.06543011Jul 5vs W3.27166122
W3.27166122Shane Drohan
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX—
home starts5.07.20poor4.58.53.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L5.08358322
L5.08358322Aug 7vs L5.09449466
L5.09449466Trends · TEX
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 3-2 in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in Cal Quantrill's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 3.4 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.6 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 1-4 to the over in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-2 to the over in Cal Quantrill's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 2-3 in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-3 in Shane Drohan's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 4.2 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.4 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 2-3 to the over in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 to the over in Shane Drohan's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SSE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-08
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: recent opponents high-K: LAA 32%, LAA 32%
- MIL — Shane Drohan: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-18
- MIL — Shane Drohan: 2026-08-07: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.45 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
Two of the best lineups on the board face off — Texas at 145 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 122 over its last 12, Milwaukee at 151 vs RHP over its last 6 and 149 over its last 12 — but Quantrill's 2.20 xERA over his last 3 and Milwaukee's 2.16 bullpen xERA over its last 12 keep the total honest at 8.0 and the moneyline fair. Quantrill's 3.5 strikeouts is short of the 6, 5 and 6 he has posted, but at -130 the price has already bought that, and his outs line of 15.5 sits below the six innings he has averaged with the juice on the under. Drohan's 5.5 strikeouts matches his 4.7 per start and 20.4 K% against a Rangers lineup at 19.8 K% over its last 6, and his outs line of 15.5 is exactly the five innings he has thrown in each of his last three.
ARI @ SFG10:05 PM · Oracle Park
ARI @ SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Mitch Bratt L
xERA4.14 (avg)ERA6.00 (poor)K%13.0 (below)Whiff%12.0 (below)
More Stats
HH%30.0 (elite)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs71BB%13.0 (below)
SFG vs LHP
L6
wRC+117 (above)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%43.1 (above)
L12
wRC+85 (below)K%28.6 (poor)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%39.2 (avg)
Anthony Molina R
xERA4.35 (avg)ERA1.23 (elite)K%11.5 (poor)Whiff%20.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%4.8 (elite)IP/gs7.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs38BB%7.7 (avg)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+82 (below)K%18.4 (above)Whiff%16.3 (elite)HH%32.4 (below)
L12
wRC+86 (below)K%17.4 (above)Whiff%16.2 (elite)HH%38.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 5.17 (below)ERA 4.79 (below)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.90 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI-118-1.5 (+135)O8.0 (-105)SFG+111+1.5 (-160)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-124-0.5 (+114)O4.5 (+104)SFG+100+0.5 (-148)U4.5 (-135)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI4.5 (+114/+110)1.5 (-145/+114)SFG3.5 (-108/-118)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UMitch Bratt3.5 (-138 / +110)Anthony Molina—
Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W3.06935333
W3.06935333Aug 17@ L3.06504333
L3.06504333Aug 11vs L6.07844122
L6.07844122Aug 5vs W7.09291300
W7.09291300Jul 31@ W5.08223411
W5.08223411Anthony Molina · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs W4.1*5211100
W4.1*5211100Jun 16vs L2.0*3303022
L2.0*3303022Jun 14@ L1.0*2923012
L1.0*2923012May 1@ W2.0*2600100
W2.0*2600100Trends · ARI
- ARI are 9-2 vs SFG this season (11 games).
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 3-2 in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-2 in Mitch Bratt's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 4.4 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 4.4 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 2-3 to the over in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 2-1 to the over in Mitch Bratt's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 2-9 vs ARI this season (11 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather
60°F, Wind 10 mph WNW
Flags · 8
- SFG — Anthony Molina: small sample: 7.1 IP over 3 starts
- SFG — Anthony Molina: Whiff% 20.0 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 11.5 shows
- ARI bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.17 over its last 12
- SFG bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: last start: 69 pitches over 3.0 IP
- SFG — Anthony Molina: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-25, 2026-06-16
- WEATHER: wind blowing OUT 10 mph from the WNW
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL West)
BAL @ ATH✓10:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
BAL @ ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Shane Baz R
xERA3.09 (good)ERA6.60 (poor)K%22.7 (avg)Whiff%26.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs88BB%9.1 (avg)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+126 (above)K%26.1 (below)Whiff%28.4 (poor)HH%34.7 (below)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%25.4 (below)HH%35.1 (avg)
Jack Perkins R
xERA3.31 (good)ERA4.61 (below)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%22.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%4.8 (elite)IP/gs13.7 IP/gsH/gs16.0PC/gs80BB%11.3 (below)
BAL vs RHP
L6
wRC+87 (below)K%21.2 (avg)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%46.4 (elite)
L12
wRC+93 (below)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%42.8 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.12 (elite)ERA 1.85 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 3.39 (good)ERA 4.32 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-136-1.5 (+110)O10.0 (-102)ATH+131+1.5 (-131)U9.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-135-0.5 (-106)O5.5 (+102)ATH+116+0.5 (-122)U5.5 (-132)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL5.5 (+104/-125)2.5 (-125/-105)ATH4.5 (+110/-130)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShane Baz5.5 (+128 / -155)17.5 (-135 / +105)Jack Perkins5.5 (-111 / -105)14.5 (-186 / +139)
Shane Baz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L5.29635333
L5.29635333Aug 18vs L6.1104104233
L6.1104104233Aug 12@ L3.06529155
L3.06529155Aug 7@ L8.09393122
L8.09393122Aug 1vs L6.19946111
L6.19946111Jack Perkins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ W5.0*9163513
W5.0*9163513Aug 18@ L3.2*5341100
L3.2*5341100Aug 12vs L5.097212167
L5.097212167Aug 7@ L3.07035355
L3.07035355Aug 1vs L5.19199166
L5.19199166SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane Baz
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH6.15.93poor7.76.02.0(3)
at ATH7.05.14below7.06.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 9vs L4.210055355
L4.210055355Aug 12@ L7.09376245
L7.09376245Jul 1vs L7.090117133
L7.090117133Jack Perkins
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL6.04.50below5.03.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@ W6.08453133
W6.08453133home starts5.18.24poor5.07.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs L5.097212167
L5.097212167Aug 1vs L5.19199166
L5.19199166Jul 27vs L5.26941322
L5.26941322Trends · BAL
- BAL are 2-2 vs ATH this season (4 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 0-5 in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 0-5 in Shane Baz's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 1.6 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 2.4 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-2 to the over in Shane Baz's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 2-2 vs BAL this season (4 games).
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 0-5 in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 0-5 in Jack Perkins's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 3.6 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 4.8 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 to the over in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-2 to the over in Jack Perkins's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
80°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- BAL — Shane Baz: low-K outing 2026-08-12 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- BAL — Shane Baz: high-K outing 2026-08-18 (10 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- BAL — Shane Baz: recent opponents low-K: MIN 13%, TBR 14%
- ATH — Jack Perkins: 17 days since last start (2026-08-12) news ↗
- ATH — Jack Perkins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-23, 2026-08-18
- ATH — Jack Perkins: high-K outing 2026-08-01 (9 Ks vs avg 4.7 over his last 3)
BAL @ ATH u9.5 (-105)
Baltimore brings an 87 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 games (93 over its last 12) against Jack Perkins, whose 3.31 xERA over his last 3 starts is far better than his run column suggests. Shane Baz sits at a 3.09 xERA with a 26.4% whiff rate over his last 3, and behind him Baltimore's bullpen has a 2.12 xERA over its last 12 games with a 27.4% strikeout rate, which covers the innings after both starters exit. A 9.5 is a run above where two arms with sub-3.35 expected marks and one clearly cold offense project.
Shane Baz o5.5 Strikeouts (+122)
Baz has a 22.7% strikeout rate and a 26.4% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, and the Athletics are swinging through pitches at a 28.4% clip over their last 6 games vs RHP with a 26.1% strikeout rate. He has averaged 7.7 strikeouts across 3 career starts against this club, going 11, 7 and 5, and his outs line at 17.5 tells you six innings are expected. His recent totals of 2 and 3 came against Minnesota and Tampa Bay, two of the lowest-strikeout lineups he could have drawn, so plus money on six punchouts against a whiff-heavy offense is the wrong side of the market.
Jack Perkins u14.5 Outs (+139)
Perkins has thrown 13.7 innings across his last 3 starts — 5.1, 3.0 and 5.0 — which is under five innings a night, and he walks 11.3% over that window. He has not started since August 12, working out of the bullpen on August 18 and 23 instead, so he arrives without a starter's build-up and on a limited count. Baltimore's lineup hits the ball hard at a 46.4 HH% vs RHP over its last 6, and the Athletics' bullpen has not worked in two days, so there is no incentive to stretch him — the market is pricing five full innings as a 61% proposition for an arm that has averaged four and a half.
PHI @ LAA✓10:07 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
PHI @ LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
C. Sanchez L
xERA3.02 (good)ERA2.41 (elite)K%26.7 (good)Whiff%31.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%36.5 (avg)Barrel%3.9 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs94BB%4.0 (elite)
LAA vs LHP
L6
wRC+85 (below)K%16.2 (above)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%26.2 (poor)
L12
wRC+67 (poor)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%26.8 (below)HH%30.7 (below)
Ryan Johnson R
xERA4.04 (avg)ERA1.62 (elite)K%18.8 (avg)Whiff%20.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs86BB%9.4 (avg)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+96 (avg)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+118 (above)K%18.9 (above)Whiff%20.8 (above)HH%34.5 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 2.83 (elite)ERA 2.31 (elite)
LAA
xERA 3.04 (good)ERA 3.44 (good)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-229-1.5 (-134)O8.0 (-105)LAA+212+1.5 (+115)U8.0 (-111)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-220-0.5 (-148)O4.5 (-102)LAA+176+0.5 (+114)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (-128/+105)2.5 (-110/-120)LAA2.5 (-136/+110)1.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UC. Sanchez7.5 (-113 / -113)18.5 (+107 / -140)Ryan Johnson3.5 (+100 / -114)15.5 (+144 / -176)
C. Sanchez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs W6.210379044
W6.210379044Aug 17vs W6.09068311
W6.09068311Aug 11@ L6.08974000
L6.08974000Aug 6vs W5.09866222
W5.09866222Aug 1@ W6.099112500
W6.099112500Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ W7.08831200
W7.08831200Aug 16vs L5.18545222
L5.18545222Aug 11vs W4.18453211
W4.18453211Aug 6@ W4.27813511
W4.27813511Jul 31vs L4.18836355
L4.18836355SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Johnson
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI—
home starts4.45.41poor4.04.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L5.18545222
L5.18545222Aug 11vs W4.18453211
W4.18453211Jul 31vs L4.18836355
L4.18836355Trends · PHI
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 4-1 in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in C. Sanchez's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 4.8 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 4.0 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 to the over in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 0-2 to the over in C. Sanchez's last 2 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA have lost 5 straight.
- LAA are 3-2 in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 2-3 in Ryan Johnson's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 2.4 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 2.6 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 1-4 to the over in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 0-3 to the over in Ryan Johnson's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- LAA offense: Whiff% 25.2 (last 6) runs well above what K% 16.2 shows
- PHI — C. Sanchez: last start: 103 pitches over 6.2 IP
C. Sanchez u7.5 Strikeouts (-113)
Sanchez has struck out 7, 6 and 7 over his last 3 starts — never once clearing eight — despite a 26.7 K% and 31.9 Whiff% across that window. The Angels are the wrong lineup to chase a big number against: 16.2 K% vs LHP over their last 6 and 20.8% over their last 12, the most contact-oriented profile he has faced lately. Even at 6.2 IP per start over his last 3 he projects under seven, and the posted 7.5 asks for an outing above his recent ceiling.