AI Picks · 6 Bets · Jun 27
LAD -1.5 (-114)
Yamamoto is elite and scorching hot: xERA 2.14, recent ERA 0.90 (HOT), averaging 7.4 IP/gs deep into games. He has a 2.83 ERA in 3 starts vs SDP and 2.08 ERA at Petco specifically. Vasquez is a disaster: xERA 6.56 (poor), season ERA 8.76, recent ERA 6.34, and only averaging 4.1 IP/gs — he's been shelled by LAD before (5.93 ERA, 4.5 IP/gs in 2 prior starts). LAD offense is elite (wRC+ 135 L12). LAD bullpen is strong (xERA 2.47). Petco Park is a slight pitcher's park (APF 98) helping Yamamoto. The -114 on -1.5 represents genuine value given the gap between these starters. The only concern is Yamamoto's 102-pitch count last start — may be slightly shorter today — but he's been dominant enough that even 6 innings should be plenty. ML was -199 which is above threshold, making the -1.5 spread the correct vehicle at -114.
Found at 10:31 AM ET
ATL Team Total u3.5 (-110)
Logan Webb is elite and locked in: xERA 2.42, recent ERA 0.94 (HOT), averaging 8.0 IP/gs — one of the best arms in baseball right now. ATL's offense is historically bad in L12 vs RHP (wRC+ 45 — poor). Webb has 10 Ks in his only career start vs ATL and dominates at home (3gs, 3.15 ERA). Wind blowing out 20mph only helps the Giants' offense, not ATL's bats facing Webb. ATL's team total at 3.5 with Webb on the mound and a wRC+ 45 lineup is a strong under. SFG bullpen is shaky (xERA 4.93) but Webb's workload (8.0 IP/gs) means he eats deep into games. This is a pure pitcher dominance bet on one of the hottest starters in baseball.
Found at 10:31 AM ET
ATL @ SFG F5 u4.5 (-144)
Webb's recent ERA 0.94, ATL wRC+ 45 vs RHP, and Elder struggling (recent ERA 5.88, xERA 4.62) strongly favor an under in the first 5. However, -144 is at the pricing limit and the ATL team total under is a better-priced, purer bet on the same edge.
Found at 10:31 AM ET
Line Warning: ATL Team Total Under 3.5 (-110) is a cleaner, better-priced expression of this Webb dominance edge without the correlated ATL scoring dependency.
LAA F5 ML (-116)
Reid Detmers is elite (xERA 2.62) and absolutely dealing right now — recent ERA 2.00 over last 3 starts, averaging 7.3 K/start. ATH is cold vs LHP (wRC+ 83 L12, K% 22.7%), and Perkins comes in struggling badly with a 9.00 recent ERA, high BB% (11.1%), and a 6.30 ERA in 2 prior starts vs LAA. LAA offense is hot vs RHP (wRC+ 122). This is a compound edge: dominant starter on one side, struggling starter on the other, hot offense backing it up. F5 limits exposure to ATH's shaky bullpen (xERA 4.19) and stays focused on the Detmers/Perkins matchup where the gap is widest. -116 is fair value for a lopsided F5 matchup.
Found at 10:31 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
Dylan Cease Ks o7.5 (-128)
Dylan Cease has a massive K% at 38.2% — one of the highest in baseball. His recent avg is 9.3 K/start. TEX vs RHP has a K% of 19.6% which is above average, not the most strikeout-prone lineup, but Cease's elite stuff transcends matchup. Calibrated expectation: his recent 9.3 K/start avg came vs PHI (19.5% K), PIT (24.3% K), NYY (26.1% K) — today's TEX (19.6% K) is similar to PHI. Adjusted expectation is still 8-9 Ks given his raw K% of 38.2% is exceptional. The line of 7.5 is below his recent average and adjusted expectation. The main risk is his recent ERA of 4.74 (struggling) and last start was 110 pitches — he may not go as deep today. However, even 5 solid innings from Cease could yield 7+ Ks at his rate. The -128 pricing is at the warning threshold but acceptable given the magnitude of the edge (9.3 avg vs 7.5 line).
Found at 10:31 AM ET
Line Warning: If -128 is too steep, the Outs Over 17.5 at -135 is also worth considering as Cease has been going 5.6 IP/gs avg with big pitch counts.
CIN F5 ML (-135)
Chase Burns is dominant: xERA 2.66 (elite), recent ERA 3.33, averaging 8.0 K/start, and he has a 0.00 ERA in 2 prior starts vs PIT and a 0.69 ERA at this park specifically. PIT's Jared Jones is struggling (recent ERA 4.81, season ERA 6.55 despite xERA 3.73) and averages only 3.7 IP/gs. CIN has a strong offense going through PIT's shaky home rotation (Jones: 7.78 ERA at home in 2 starts). CIN ML full game at -118 may be the cleaner play given both pens are elite.
Found at 10:31 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider CIN Full Game ML at -118 instead — both bullpens are elite (CIN xERA 2.52, PIT xERA 2.98), so the full game is actually better supported than just F5.
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
NYY @ 
BOS1:10 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly
NYY @ BOSMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Gerrit Cole R
xERA3.57 (good)K%22.1 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA5.65IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs89BB%7.3
BOS vs RHP
wRC+85 (below avg)K%22.8 (avg)HH%32.4 (below avg)
Jake Bennett L
xERA1.33 (elite)K%28.1 (elite)HH%25.0 (elite)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA3.31IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs79BB%1.6
NYY vs LHP
wRC+95 (avg)K%26.1 (below avg)HH%35.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-120-1.5 (+132)O8.5 (-110)BOS+108+1.5 (-155)U8.5 (+100)
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ L5.18957144
L5.18957144Jun 22@ 
L4.18959155
L4.18959155Jun 16vs 
W6.09063222
W6.09063222Jun 9@ 
W4.08345222
W4.08345222Jun 3vs L5.18326144
L5.18326144Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs W6.18733211
W6.18733211Jun 22@ 
L6.07294000
L6.07294000Jun 17vs 
L5.17953022
L5.17953022Jun 10@ 
L5.07347144
L5.07347144May 7vs L5.18616244
L5.18616244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gerrit Cole
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.17.065.07.01.0(1)
at BOS5.17.065.07.01.0(1)
Jake Bennett
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.11.483.03.02.0(1)
home starts5.43.873.04.01.3(3)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 4-5 vs BOS this season (9 games).
- NYY are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-1 in Gerrit Cole's last 3 away starts.
- NYY average 5.8 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 4.3 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 5-4 vs NYY this season (9 games).
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 1-4 in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 1-2 in Jake Bennett's last 3 home starts.
- BOS average 2.8 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 2.3 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.44 (good)ERA 2.812d stress Normal (5.3 IP/2g)
BOS
xERA 2.98 (elite)ERA 4.182d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
73°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph E
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: 2026-06-22: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: recent opponents high-K: CLE 28%, DET 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- BOS — Jake Bennett: last start: 72 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- BOS — Jake Bennett: 2026-06-10: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
HOU @ DET1:10 PM · Comerica Park
HOU @ DETMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kai-Wei Teng R
xERA4.88 (below avg)K%26.5 (good)HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%15.0 (below avg)ERA7.43IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs74BB%8.8
DET vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%28.0 (poor)HH%36.8 (avg)
Framber Valdez L
xERA3.55 (good)K%21.6 (avg)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%10.2 (avg)ERA2.65IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs91BB%9.5
HOU vs LHP
wRC+30 (poor)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+114+1.5 (-184)O8.5 (-105)DET-130-1.5 (+155)U8.5 (-112)
Kai-Wei Teng · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ W3.25818145
W3.25818145Jun 21vs W6.08344111
W6.08344111Jun 15vs L3.18196255
L3.18196255Jun 9@ 
L4.09357357
L4.09357357Jun 4vs 
L5.08717245
L5.08717245Framber Valdez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs L6.08828044
L6.08828044Jun 22vs W6.09484211
W6.09484211Jun 16@ L6.09266301
L6.09266301Jun 10vs 
L5.07526244
L5.07526244Jun 5vs 
W5.010255211
W5.010255211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kai-Wei Teng
IPERAKHBB
vs DET3.212.865.07.01.5(2)
at DET3.211.251.08.01.0(1)
Framber Valdez
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU6.03.004.07.01.5(2)
home starts5.74.764.06.01.3(3)
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 4-2 vs DET this season (6 games).
- HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 1-4 in Kai-Wei Teng's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 1-3 in Kai-Wei Teng's last 4 away starts.
- HOU average 2.2 runs/game in Kai-Wei Teng's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 1.8 runs/game in Kai-Wei Teng's last 4 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-4 vs HOU this season (6 games).
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 2-3 in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 3.8 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.2 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.22 (good)ERA 2.642d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
DET
xERA 2.45 (elite)ERA 1.632d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Weather
82°F, Wind 8 mph
Flags · 6
- HOU — Kai-Wei Teng: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- HOU — Kai-Wei Teng: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- HOU bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- HOU — Kai-Wei Teng: recent opponents high-K: LAA 26%, DET 28%, CLE 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- DET — Framber Valdez: 2026-06-10: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- DET — Framber Valdez: low-K outing 2026-06-10 (2 Ks vs avg 5.3) — stuff was flat that day
TEX @ TOR✓3:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
TEX @ TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
TBD
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
TOR
No data
Dylan Cease R
xERA2.21 (elite)K%38.2 (elite)HH%24.2 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA1.62IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs99BB%13.2
TEX vs RHP
wRC+120 (above avg)K%19.6 (above avg)HH%42.3 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+110+1.5 (-190)O8.5 (+100)TOR-130-1.5 (+172)U8.5 (-115)
Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs L4.07882411
L4.07882411Jun 22vs W5.211083422
W5.211083422Jun 16@ W5.010874400
W5.010874400Jun 9vs 
W6.093113111
W6.093113111May 24vs L4.27684122
L4.27684122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX4.02.258.02.04.0(1)
home starts5.12.379.02.73.0(3)
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 2-0 vs TOR this season (2 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 0-2 vs TEX this season (2 games).
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR have lost 4 straight.
- TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 4-1 in Dylan Cease's last 5 home starts.
- TOR average 3.6 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.0 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 5.842d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
TOR
xERA 3.84 (avg)ERA 3.352d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph ESE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- TEX — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- TOR — Dylan Cease: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TEX bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 110 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
Dylan Cease Ks o7.5 (-128)
Dylan Cease has a massive K% at 38.2% — one of the highest in baseball. His recent avg is 9.3 K/start. TEX vs RHP has a K% of 19.6% which is above average, not the most strikeout-prone lineup, but Cease's elite stuff transcends matchup. Calibrated expectation: his recent 9.3 K/start avg came vs PHI (19.5% K), PIT (24.3% K), NYY (26.1% K) — today's TEX (19.6% K) is similar to PHI. Adjusted expectation is still 8-9 Ks given his raw K% of 38.2% is exceptional. The line of 7.5 is below his recent average and adjusted expectation. The main risk is his recent ERA of 4.74 (struggling) and last start was 110 pitches — he may not go as deep today. However, even 5 solid innings from Cease could yield 7+ Ks at his rate. The -128 pricing is at the warning threshold but acceptable given the magnitude of the edge (9.3 avg vs 7.5 line).
CIN @ PIT✓4:05 PM · PNC ParkRainy
CIN @ PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Chase Burns R
xERA2.66 (elite)K%31.3 (elite)HH%23.7 (elite)Barrel%5.3 (good)ERA1.76IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs100BB%11.9
PIT vs RHP
wRC+131 (elite)K%24.3 (below avg)HH%43.7 (above avg)
Jared Jones R
xERA3.73 (good)K%22.9 (avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA6.55IP/gs3.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs65BB%8.3
CIN vs RHP
wRC+69 (poor)K%30.0 (poor)HH%32.3 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+112+1.5 (-180)O9.0 (+100)PIT-130-1.5 (+172)U9.0 (-118)
Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21@ W5.09675311
W5.09675311Jun 15vs 
W5.010074300
W5.010074300Jun 9@ 
W5.110576222
W5.110576222Jun 3vs 
L6.09894122
L6.09894122May 26@ W5.19084222
W5.19084222Jared Jones · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21@ W3.04531211
W3.04531211Jun 15@ 
L4.07548155
L4.07548155Jun 10vs 
W4.07543122
W4.07543122Jun 4@ W5.07444200
W5.07444200May 29vs W4.17767255
W4.17767255SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Chase Burns
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.00.007.02.02.0(2)
at PIT6.50.698.53.01.0(2)
Jared Jones
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN—
home starts4.07.785.05.01.5(2)
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-5 vs PIT this season (7 games).
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 4-1 in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 4-1 in Chase Burns's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 6.0 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.0 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 5-2 vs CIN this season (7 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 4-1 in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-0 in Jared Jones's last 2 home starts.
- PIT average 6.0 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 7.5 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 2.52 (elite)ERA 2.982d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 2.98 (elite)ERA 2.882d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Rainy
74°F, Light Rain, Wind 6 mph ENE
APF 101 — Neutral · Rain possible (17%)
Flags · 4
- PIT — Jared Jones: avg 3.7 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- PIT — Jared Jones: last start: 45 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PIT — Jared Jones: 2026-06-15: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: rain risk 17% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
CIN F5 ML (-135)
Chase Burns is dominant: xERA 2.66 (elite), recent ERA 3.33, averaging 8.0 K/start, and he has a 0.00 ERA in 2 prior starts vs PIT and a 0.69 ERA at this park specifically. PIT's Jared Jones is struggling (recent ERA 4.81, season ERA 6.55 despite xERA 3.73) and averages only 3.7 IP/gs. CIN has a strong offense going through PIT's shaky home rotation (Jones: 7.78 ERA at home in 2 starts). CIN ML full game at -118 may be the cleaner play given both pens are elite.
KCR @ CHW4:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
KCR @ CHWMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael Wacha R
xERA2.74 (elite)K%12.2 (below avg)HH%27.9 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.60IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs66BB%3.7
CHW vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%22.3 (avg)HH%40.8 (above avg)
Davis Martin R
xERA4.21 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%4.1 (elite)ERA5.87IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs60BB%8.6
KCR vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%20.3 (avg)HH%44.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+120+1.5 (-170)O9.0 (-105)CHW-136-1.5 (+155)U8.5 (+100)
Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ L1.0800000
L1.0800000Jun 22@ W7.09956111
W7.09956111Jun 16@ 
L6.09037133
L6.09037133Jun 11vs L7.010229144
L7.010229144Jun 5@ L5.27728045
L5.27728045Davis Martin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs L1.01510000
L1.01510000Jun 21@ L6.07745311
L6.07745311Jun 16@ L3.18848399
L3.18848399Jun 10vs 
W6.010066000
W6.010066000Jun 2@ L4.292210366
L4.292210366SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Wacha
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.01.804.03.30.7(3)
at CHW3.53.862.53.00.5(2)
Davis Martin
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR4.71.292.72.71.0(3)
home starts4.30.694.02.70.7(3)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 2-6 vs CHW this season (8 games).
- KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 1-4 in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 2.8 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 3.2 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 6-2 vs KCR this season (8 games).
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 5-0 in Davis Martin's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 3.6 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 4.6 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 5.27 (poor)ERA 9.002d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
CHW
xERA 4.74 (below avg)ERA 4.432d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
71°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 10 mph NNE
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.27 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- KCR bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW — Davis Martin: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CHW — Davis Martin: 2026-06-16: 9 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 26) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling recently (Wacha recent ERA 5.44, Martin recent ERA 10.15), but Martin's matchup history vs KCR is strong (1.29 ERA) and the market has likely adjusted; KCR bullpen xERA 5.27 is disqualifying for ML/spread, and the split total (O9.0/-U8.5) is an unusual line that introduces uncertainty.
PHI @ NYM4:10 PM · Citi FieldRainy
PHI @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tim Mayza
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYM
No data
Christian Scott R
xERA4.36 (avg)K%26.6 (good)HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%11.9 (below avg)ERA2.93IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs94BB%7.8
PHI vs RHP
wRC+168 (elite)K%19.5 (above avg)HH%43.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI+115+1.5 (-180)O9.0 (+100)NYM-130-1.5 (+158)U9.0 (-111)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI+114+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (-138)NYM-140-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPHIO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)NYMO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTim Mayza——Christian Scott4.5 (-115 / +105)13.5 (-123 / -105)
Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 11vs 
W4.28867144
W4.28867144Jun 5@ W5.29833200
W5.29833200May 30vs 
W5.09685211
W5.09685211May 24@ L5.29454200
L5.29454200May 18@ W4.08154333
W4.08154333SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Christian Scott
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI—
home starts4.54.706.36.31.7(3)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 3-1 vs NYM this season (4 games).
- PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI have won 4 straight.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 1-3 vs PHI this season (4 games).
- NYM are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM have lost 8 straight.
- NYM are 4-1 in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 4-0 in Christian Scott's last 4 home starts.
- NYM average 6.4 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 6.0 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 4 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.33 (good)ERA 3.482d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
NYM
xERA 4.12 (avg)ERA 4.652d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Rainy
79°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph N
APF 101 — Neutral · Rain possible (60%)
Flags · 4
- PHI — Tim Mayza: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- NYM — Christian Scott: 16 days since last start (2026-06-11) — may not be fully stretched out
- NYM — Christian Scott: 2026-06-11: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: rain risk 60% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
AI Analysis
60% rain risk is a disqualifying factor for this game.
ARI @ TBR6:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
ARI @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jose Cabrera R
xERA2.75 (elite)K%16.7 (below avg)HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA0.00IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs62BB%0.0
TBR vs RHP
wRC+148 (elite)K%15.7 (elite)HH%38.0 (avg)
TBD
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
ARI
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+160+1.5 (-130)O7.5 (-115)TBR-180-1.5 (+126)U7.5 (+100)
Jose Cabrera · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21vs L5.06233000
L5.06233000Trends · ARI
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 0-1 in Jose Cabrera's last 1 starts.
- ARI average 2.0 runs/game in Jose Cabrera's last 1 starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.48 (avg)ERA 5.362d stress Fresh (1.3 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 3.00 (good)ERA 3.042d stress Stressed (11.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Dome
Dome
Flags · 5
- ARI — Jose Cabrera: small sample (5.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- TBR — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- ARI bullpen fresh (1.3 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TBR bullpen stressed (11.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI — Jose Cabrera: last start: 62 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
TBR starter is NO STATS (automatic disqualifier), and ARI's Jose Cabrera has a tiny sample (5IP over 3 starts, only 62 pitches last outing suggesting early hooks or injury concern); insufficient information to bet either side.
WSN @ 
BAL7:05 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsRainy
WSN @ BALMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Foster Griffin L
xERA2.72 (elite)K%26.0 (good)HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%5.6 (good)ERA1.40IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs102BB%2.6
BAL vs LHP
wRC+119 (above avg)K%25.0 (below avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Brandon Young R
xERA3.15 (good)K%16.4 (below avg)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA2.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs92BB%11.0
WSN vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%21.2 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+166+1.5 (-120)O9.0 (-110)BAL-190-1.5 (+110)U9.0 (-105)
Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 22vs W7.110594011
W7.110594011Jun 16vs W6.010066211
W6.010066211Jun 10@ 
L6.010056011
L6.010056011Jun 5@ W5.06242011
W5.06242011May 30vs W5.09055233
W5.09055233Brandon Young · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21@ W5.09555211
W5.09555211Jun 16@ L6.09224433
L6.09224433Jun 10vs W7.08852200
W7.08852200Jun 5@ W6.18547033
W6.18547033May 30vs W6.28677122
W6.28677122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Young
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN3.25.623.05.03.0(1)
home starts6.50.935.34.71.7(3)
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 2-2 vs BAL this season (4 games).
- WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN have lost 4 straight.
- WSN are 4-1 in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 3-2 in Foster Griffin's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 8.6 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 6.0 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 2-2 vs WSN this season (4 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 7.8 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 5.2 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 4.86 (below avg)ERA 6.332d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
BAL
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 3.712d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
75°F, Light Showers, Wind 6 mph NNW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (54%)
Flags · 3
- WSN — Foster Griffin: last start: 105 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- BAL — Brandon Young: recent opponents high-K: SEA 27%, SEA 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: rain risk 54% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
AI Analysis
54% rain risk is a disqualifying factor; cannot trust any bet when meaningful precipitation risk exists.
CHC @ 
MIL7:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
CHC @ MILMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
David Peterson L
xERA6.13 (poor)K%13.2 (below avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA10.97IP/gs10.7 IP/gsH/gs15.0PC/gs65BB%11.3
MIL vs LHP
wRC+101 (avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%42.5 (above avg)
Kyle Harrison L
xERA2.77 (elite)K%22.9 (avg)HH%45.5 (poor)Barrel%9.1 (avg)ERA6.14IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs79BB%3.3
CHC vs LHP
wRC+189 (elite)K%15.4 (elite)HH%44.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC+138+1.5 (-150)O8.0 (-105)MIL-163-1.5 (+130)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC+136+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (+106)MIL-166-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHCO3.5 (-102)U3.5 (-125)O1.5 (-120)U1.5 (-110)MILO4.5 (+110)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDavid Peterson——Kyle Harrison6.5 (+120 / +120)17.5 (+116 / -104)
David Peterson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21@ L4.07956245
L4.07956245Jun 15@ L3.0*5412233
L3.0*5412233Jun 10vs L3.2*6317266
L3.2*6317266May 31vs W4.0*5131100
W4.0*5131100May 26vs L5.090411366
L5.090411366Kyle Harrison · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20@ L6.18574022
L6.18574022Jun 14vs W6.08033000
W6.08033000Jun 8@ W2.17148288
W2.17148288Jun 2vs W5.2106124211
W5.2106124211May 26vs W6.09224000
W6.09224000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
David Peterson
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.21.454.05.03.0(1)
at MIL—
Kyle Harrison
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC7.00.0011.02.01.0(1)
home starts5.70.525.73.70.7(3)
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 0-4 vs MIL this season (4 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 4-0 vs CHC this season (4 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL have won 5 straight.
- MIL are 4-1 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 5-0 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 7.2 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 5.8 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 5.07 (below avg)ERA 6.102d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
MIL
xERA 3.39 (good)ERA 4.352d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
70°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph NE
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- CHC — David Peterson: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHC bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.07 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- CHC bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC — David Peterson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-15, 2026-06-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — David Peterson: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CHC — David Peterson: recent opponents high-K: WSN 27%, PHI 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: 2026-06-08: 8 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 34) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SEA @ CLE7:10 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
SEA @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Logan Gilbert R
xERA2.95 (elite)K%32.9 (elite)HH%39.0 (avg)Barrel%14.6 (below avg)ERA1.40IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs98BB%7.1
CLE vs RHP
wRC+102 (avg)K%27.6 (below avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
Slade Cecconi R
xERA3.63 (good)K%17.1 (avg)HH%48.1 (poor)Barrel%7.7 (good)ERA2.70IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs83BB%8.6
SEA vs RHP
wRC+56 (poor)K%27.1 (below avg)HH%35.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-148-1.5 (+116)O7.5 (+105)CLE+130+1.5 (-138)U7.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA-160-0.5 (-110)O3.5 (-144)CLE+130+0.5 (-118)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USEAO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+112)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)CLEO3.5 (+120)U3.5 (-145)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Gilbert6.5 (-142 / +114)17.5 (-200 / +148)Slade Cecconi4.5 (+108 / -125)16.5 (-110 / -107)
Logan Gilbert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21vs W6.19483211
W6.19483211Jun 16vs W7.094102111
W7.094102111Jun 9@ W6.010553211
W6.010553211Jun 2vs W5.19984133
W5.19984133May 27@ W6.09165200
W6.09165200Slade Cecconi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21@ L6.07916222
L6.07916222Jun 16@ L5.28243211
L5.28243211Jun 9vs L5.08776222
L5.08776222Jun 4@ L6.08244111
L6.08244111May 29vs W4.16937033
W4.16937033SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Gilbert
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.54.866.54.01.0(2)
at CLE6.04.506.03.02.0(1)
Slade Cecconi
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA4.113.175.06.03.0(1)
home starts4.43.445.76.01.0(3)
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 3-2 vs CLE this season (5 games).
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 5-0 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 4-1 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 5.8 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.0 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-3 vs SEA this season (5 games).
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 in Slade Cecconi's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Slade Cecconi's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 1.8 runs/game in Slade Cecconi's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 2.2 runs/game in Slade Cecconi's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 2.62 (elite)ERA 5.252d stress Normal (5.3 IP/2g)
CLE
xERA 5.13 (below avg)ERA 4.942d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
72°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 5 mph NNE
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- SEA — Logan Gilbert: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CLE — Slade Cecconi: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CLE bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.13 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- SEA — Logan Gilbert: recent opponents high-K: BAL 29%, BAL 29% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- CLE — Slade Cecconi: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Logan Gilbert is elite but SEA ML at -148 is too expensive (above the -150 hard cap for picks). The Outs prop is -200 (disqualifying). The K prop at -142 is also too expensive. No remaining edge at acceptable price.
COL @ MIN7:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
COL @ MINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael Lorenzen R
xERA2.90 (elite)K%26.2 (good)HH%51.2 (poor)Barrel%4.7 (elite)ERA3.52IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs88BB%6.2
MIN vs RHP
wRC+161 (elite)K%15.3 (elite)HH%39.1 (avg)
Mike Paredes R
xERA5.34 (poor)K%13.0 (below avg)HH%55.0 (poor)Barrel%5.0 (elite)ERA3.55IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs64BB%9.3
COL vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%34.2 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+122+1.5 (-166)O9.5 (+100)MIN-144-1.5 (+145)U9.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+114+0.5 (-128)O5.5 (+108)MIN-138-0.5 (-102)U5.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCOLO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)MINO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (+110)O2.5 (-125)U2.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Lorenzen4.5 (+128 / -158)15.5 (+128 / -165)Mike Paredes3.5 (-108 / -112)14.5 (-161 / +121)
Michael Lorenzen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21vs L5.19057144
L5.19057144Jun 15@ L5.08955111
L5.08955111Jun 10vs W5.08472211
W5.08472211Jun 3@ L3.185510288
L3.185510288May 29vs W3.27025233
W3.27025233Mike Paredes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21@ W5.07516322
W5.07516322Jun 15@ W4.25924022
W4.25924022Jun 10@ W3.05841211
W3.05841211Jun 4vs L3.2*5012133
L3.2*5012133May 31@ L3.2*6532312
L3.2*6532312SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Lorenzen
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN5.54.054.06.00.0(2)
at MIN—
Trends · COL
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 2-3 in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
- COL are 0-5 in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 5.0 runs/game in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
- COL average 3.4 runs/game in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 3-0 in Mike Paredes's last 3 starts.
- MIN average 4.7 runs/game in Mike Paredes's last 3 starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.64 (below avg)ERA 2.932d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 4.32 (avg)ERA 7.132d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph SSE
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- COL — Michael Lorenzen: HH% 51% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIN — Mike Paredes: HH% 55% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- COL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- COL — Michael Lorenzen: 2026-06-21: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIN — Mike Paredes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-04, 2026-05-31 — may affect pitch count or availability
- MIN — Mike Paredes: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
MIA @ STL7:15 PM · Busch StadiumLightning
MIA @ STLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Gusto R
xERA4.99 (below avg)K%18.3 (avg)HH%46.5 (poor)Barrel%11.6 (below avg)ERA4.15IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs75BB%10.0
STL vs RHP
wRC+125 (above avg)K%15.3 (elite)HH%43.0 (above avg)
Andre Pallante R
xERA3.07 (good)K%18.1 (avg)HH%32.7 (good)Barrel%5.5 (good)ERA2.37IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs90BB%2.8
MIA vs RHP
wRC+111 (avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+120+1.5 (-175)O8.5 (-115)STL-137-1.5 (+146)U8.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+122+0.5 (-120)O4.5 (-120)STL-145-0.5 (-108)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)STLO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Gusto3.5 (-110 / -103)14.5 (-141 / +118)Andre Pallante4.5 (-104 / -118)17.5 (-125 / +105)
Ryan Gusto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21vs W4.16863211
W4.16863211Jun 15@ L4.29118355
L4.29118355Jun 10vs W4.06643100
W4.06643100Jun 5vs L2.03313133
L2.03313133Jun 2@ W2.0*4035033
W2.0*4035033Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 22vs W6.08526011
W6.08526011Jun 16vs W7.09264022
W7.09264022Jun 10@ W6.09353222
W6.09353222Jun 3vs W5.28553211
W5.28553211May 29vs W3.07538144
W3.07538144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andre Pallante
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA6.03.724.04.52.0(2)
home starts6.11.984.34.30.7(3)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 3-1 vs STL this season (4 games).
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-2 in Ryan Gusto's last 4 starts.
- MIA are 0-1 in Ryan Gusto's last 1 away starts.
- MIA average 2.5 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 4 starts.
- MIA average 0.0 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 1 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 1-3 vs MIA this season (4 games).
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- STL have lost 4 straight.
- STL are 5-0 in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL are 4-1 in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 5.2 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.4 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 2.662d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
STL
xERA 5.49 (poor)ERA 6.472d stress Fresh (3.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Lightning
81°F, Thunderstorm, Wind 3 mph WNW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- STL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.49 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- MIA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- STL bullpen fresh (3.0 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-02, 2026-04-08 — may affect pitch count or availability
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: 2026-06-15: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Ryan Gusto has extreme red flags (recent ERA 4.50, xERA 4.99, HH% 47%, Barrel% 11.6%, last 2 starts totaling just 4IP) but STL bullpen xERA 5.49 disqualifies full-game side bets; the matchup signals don't align cleanly enough for a team total or F5 play either, with Gusto's short outing history creating structural uncertainty.
LAD @ SDP✓8:40 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
LAD @ SDP✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Y. Yamamoto R
xERA2.14 (elite)K%21.5 (avg)HH%30.0 (elite)Barrel%3.3 (elite)ERA2.01IP/gs7.4 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs101BB%2.5
SDP vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%24.1 (below avg)HH%39.7 (avg)
Randy Vasquez R
xERA6.56 (poor)K%13.9 (below avg)HH%44.9 (below avg)Barrel%12.2 (below avg)ERA8.76IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs82BB%10.8
LAD vs RHP
wRC+135 (elite)K%24.5 (below avg)HH%39.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-140-1.5 (+120)O8.0 (-110)SDP+120+1.5 (-140)U8.0 (-105)
Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs L6.010266233
L6.010266233Jun 13@ W8.110971011
W8.110971011Jun 6vs W8.09342011
W8.09342011May 31vs W5.1104104200
W5.1104104200May 24@ W7.09237111
W7.09237111Randy Vasquez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19@ L3.17218367
L3.17218367Jun 13@ W5.010056222
W5.010056222Jun 7vs L4.07538244
L4.07538244Jun 2@ L5.08035122
L5.08035122May 26vs L5.29928144
L5.29928144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Y. Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP6.42.836.34.71.3(3)
at SDP6.52.087.03.52.0(2)
Randy Vasquez
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD4.55.931.05.01.5(2)
home starts4.47.441.77.32.0(3)
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-2 vs SDP this season (4 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 4-1 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-2 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 6.4 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 4.2 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 2-2 vs LAD this season (4 games).
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP have won 4 straight.
- SDP are 1-4 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-3 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 4.8 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 3.8 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 2.47 (elite)ERA 3.462d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 2.952d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
69°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph W
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAD bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: recent opponents high-K: LAA 26%, BAL 29% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: last start: 72 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
LAD -1.5 (-114)
Yamamoto is elite and scorching hot: xERA 2.14, recent ERA 0.90 (HOT), averaging 7.4 IP/gs deep into games. He has a 2.83 ERA in 3 starts vs SDP and 2.08 ERA at Petco specifically. Vasquez is a disaster: xERA 6.56 (poor), season ERA 8.76, recent ERA 6.34, and only averaging 4.1 IP/gs — he's been shelled by LAD before (5.93 ERA, 4.5 IP/gs in 2 prior starts). LAD offense is elite (wRC+ 135 L12). LAD bullpen is strong (xERA 2.47). Petco Park is a slight pitcher's park (APF 98) helping Yamamoto. The -114 on -1.5 represents genuine value given the gap between these starters. The only concern is Yamamoto's 102-pitch count last start — may be slightly shorter today — but he's been dominant enough that even 6 innings should be plenty. ML was -199 which is above threshold, making the -1.5 spread the correct vehicle at -114.
ATL @ SFG✓9:05 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
ATL @ SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryce Elder R
xERA4.62 (below avg)K%15.4 (below avg)HH%41.7 (below avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)ERA9.00IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs86BB%7.7
SFG vs RHP
wRC+137 (elite)K%19.8 (above avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Logan Webb R
xERA2.42 (elite)K%22.1 (avg)HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%4.5 (elite)ERA1.13IP/gs8.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs103BB%1.2
ATL vs RHP
wRC+45 (poor)K%23.9 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-155-1.5 (+112)O7.5 (-106)SFG+132+1.5 (-130)U7.5 (-105)
Bryce Elder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21vs L6.095612288
L6.095612288Jun 14@ L4.075210266
L4.075210266Jun 7vs W6.08842222
W6.08842222Jun 2vs W6.210366133
W6.210366133May 27@ L3.15919156
L3.15919156Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21@ L8.010355122
L8.010355122Jun 14vs W8.010677001
W8.010677001Jun 8vs L8.09975011
L8.09975011Jun 3@ W7.09541100
W7.09541100May 29@ L4.18653311
L4.18653311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryce Elder
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.52.776.55.51.5(2)
at SFG8.01.1212.03.00.0(1)
Logan Webb
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL6.03.0010.06.00.0(1)
home starts6.73.156.06.30.0(3)
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 1-4 vs SFG this season (5 games).
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 2-3 in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-2 in Bryce Elder's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 2.4 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.0 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 4-1 vs ATL this season (5 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 2-3 in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Logan Webb's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 3.2 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 3.0 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.08 (good)ERA 1.582d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 4.93 (below avg)ERA 5.502d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Windy
62°F, Clear, Wind 18 mph WNW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- ATL bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SFG — Logan Webb: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 18 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
ATL Team Total u3.5 (-110)
Logan Webb is elite and locked in: xERA 2.42, recent ERA 0.94 (HOT), averaging 8.0 IP/gs — one of the best arms in baseball right now. ATL's offense is historically bad in L12 vs RHP (wRC+ 45 — poor). Webb has 10 Ks in his only career start vs ATL and dominates at home (3gs, 3.15 ERA). Wind blowing out 20mph only helps the Giants' offense, not ATL's bats facing Webb. ATL's team total at 3.5 with Webb on the mound and a wRC+ 45 lineup is a strong under. SFG bullpen is shaky (xERA 4.93) but Webb's workload (8.0 IP/gs) means he eats deep into games. This is a pure pitcher dominance bet on one of the hottest starters in baseball.
ATL @ SFG F5 u4.5 (-144)
Webb's recent ERA 0.94, ATL wRC+ 45 vs RHP, and Elder struggling (recent ERA 5.88, xERA 4.62) strongly favor an under in the first 5. However, -144 is at the pricing limit and the ATL team total under is a better-priced, purer bet on the same edge.
ATH @ LAA✓9:38 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions
ATH @ LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jack Perkins R
xERA3.37 (good)K%28.6 (elite)HH%36.8 (avg)Barrel%5.3 (good)ERA6.43IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs84BB%11.1
LAA vs RHP
wRC+122 (above avg)K%26.2 (below avg)HH%40.9 (above avg)
Reid Detmers L
xERA2.62 (elite)K%21.9 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA2.70IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs90BB%5.5
ATH vs LHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%41.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH-104-1.5 (+160)O8.5 (-104)LAA-112+1.5 (-185)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH-104+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (+100)LAA-120-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATHO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+116)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)LAAO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+112)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJack Perkins5.5 (-146 / +115)15.5 (+118 / -149)Reid Detmers7.5 (+114 / -136)17.5 (-140 / +115)
Jack Perkins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21vs L5.07884244
L5.07884244Jun 16vs L5.08566233
L5.08566233Jun 10vs W4.08945333
W4.08945333Jun 5@ L4.07565255
L4.07565255May 31vs L2.1*3000000
L2.1*3000000Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21@ W6.09046455
W6.09046455Jun 16@ W7.09034000
W7.09034000Jun 10vs W7.08991011
W7.08991011Jun 5@ L6.09162200
L6.09162200May 30@ W5.09275333
W5.09275333SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jack Perkins
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA5.06.307.54.52.5(2)
at LAA—
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH5.610.456.07.03.0(2)
home starts6.74.4610.33.30.7(3)
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 6-3 vs LAA this season (9 games).
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 1-3 in Jack Perkins's last 4 starts.
- ATH are 0-1 in Jack Perkins's last 1 away starts.
- ATH average 4.2 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 4 starts.
- ATH average 1.0 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 1 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 3-6 vs ATH this season (9 games).
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 4-1 in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 3-2 in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 6.6 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 3.4 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 8.192d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
LAA
xERA 3.46 (good)ERA 3.752d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
72°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- LAA bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATH — Jack Perkins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-31, 2026-05-30 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ATH — Jack Perkins: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- LAA — Reid Detmers: 2026-06-21: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
LAA F5 ML (-116)
Reid Detmers is elite (xERA 2.62) and absolutely dealing right now — recent ERA 2.00 over last 3 starts, averaging 7.3 K/start. ATH is cold vs LHP (wRC+ 83 L12, K% 22.7%), and Perkins comes in struggling badly with a 9.00 recent ERA, high BB% (11.1%), and a 6.30 ERA in 2 prior starts vs LAA. LAA offense is hot vs RHP (wRC+ 122). This is a compound edge: dominant starter on one side, struggling starter on the other, hot offense backing it up. F5 limits exposure to ATH's shaky bullpen (xERA 4.19) and stays focused on the Detmers/Perkins matchup where the gap is widest. -116 is fair value for a lopsided F5 matchup.