AI Picks · 18 Bets · Aug 28
LAD @ DET u7.5 (-120)
Detroit brings a 63 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 56 over their last 12 — the two windows agree, so this is what the lineup is — against Skubal's 2.55 xERA and 32.0 K% over his last 3 starts, in which he has gone 5, 6 and 7 innings. Los Angeles answers with an 89 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 against Drew Anderson, whose 4.19 xERA over his last 3 is ordinary but who has held Cleveland and Chicago to 1 and 3 earned runs across 4 and 5 innings in that stretch. Detroit has gone under in 9 of their last 10 and 7 of their last 10 at home. The posted number sits near the league-average total for a game where one side is unlikely to reach three runs.
Found at 2:21 AM ET
Tarik Skubal u7.5 Ks (+132)
Detroit is striking out just 16.2% of the time vs LHP over its last 6 with a 16.9 Whiff% — a contact-heavy stretch, and well below the 23.7% they posted over their last 12. Tarik Skubal's 8.0 strikeouts per start over his last 3 were built against Kansas City at a 30% strikeout rate and Pittsburgh at 31%, both far more swing-and-miss than what he sees tonight, and his outs line at 18.5 caps the outing at roughly six innings of work. Eight strikeouts is being priced as a coin flip against a lineup putting the ball in play at this rate.
Found at 3:36 PM ET
Eury Perez u17.5 Outs (+116)
Eury Perez has needed 100 pitches in each of his last 3 starts to get 7.0, 6.0 and 5.0 innings, and his 14.7 BB% over that window is what keeps those counts high. Washington has been the specific problem: 4.7 IP per start across three meetings, including 5.0 innings on 100 pitches a week ago, and 4.0 IP per start across two outings at this park. With the Nationals at 104 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, up from 87 over their last 12, plus money on him falling short of six innings is priced off his overall depth rather than the depth this lineup has actually allowed him.
Found at 3:36 PM ET
Hunter Brown u5.5 Ks (-135)
Brown has posted a 14.2 Whiff% and an 18.8 K% over his last 3 starts, with a 15.9 BB% and a 2.9 K-BB% that show an arm working around contact rather than through it. His strikeout totals in those three starts were 4, 5 and 4 — he has not reached six once. The Mets have run a 17.2 K% vs RHP over their last 6 and 20.9 over their last 12, one of the lowest-strikeout groups he could draw, and even his 17.5 outs line does not buy enough batters to make up the gap. The number is set a full strikeout above anything he has produced recently against a lineup that puts the ball in play.
Found at 2:21 AM ET
NYM ML (+108)
New York carries a 132 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 134 over their last 12 — established form, not a streak — against a starter with a 4.16 xERA and a 2.9 K-BB% over his last 3 who has walked 3, 5 and 3 in those outings. Houston counters with a 96 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 (84 over their last 12) against Christian Scott, whose 4.38 xERA over his last 3 sits well under his 6.60 ERA in the same window and whose home work reads 2.11 ERA across 3 starts. The Mets bullpen has a 2.76 xERA over the last 12 games against Houston's 5.53 ERA in that window. The market has the weaker lineup and the weaker relief corps favored.
Found at 2:21 AM ET
Tanner Bibee u17.5 Outs (+145)
Kansas City has run Tanner Bibee's pitch count up in all three meetings this season — 5.0 innings on 93 pitches, 4.2 on 87 and 4.0 on 77, an average of 4.4 IP per start against them — and they arrive at 149 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 139 over their last 12, elite in both windows. His three 6-inning outings over his last 3 starts came against Detroit, San Diego and Colorado, and Cleveland's bullpen has a 2.44 xERA over its last 12 with only 3.0 relief innings in the past two days, so there is no need to push him. The market is paying plus money on the outcome this lineup has forced every time it has faced him.
Found at 3:36 PM ET
Patrick Sandoval u15.5 Outs (-109)
Sandoval averages 5.2 innings over his last 3 starts, which puts this line exactly at his working depth, and he walks into the toughest possible spot for it: the Yankees are at a 139 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 with a 44.4 HH% in that window, up sharply from 100 over their last 12. His 10.7 BB% over his last 3 has already produced 3, 3 and 2 free passes and an 89-pitch, 4-inning outing at Pittsburgh where he allowed 9 hits and 7 earned runs. Boston's bullpen is rested at normal usage with a 1.71 ERA over the last 12 games, so there is no reason to push him through a third time against this lineup, and the price treats his depth as a coin flip in a matchup that argues for an early hook.
Found at 2:21 AM ET
ATL Team Total u5.5 (-135)
Atlanta's offense is at 81 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 66 over its last 12 — below average in the short window and worse in the long one — and it has produced 3.2 runs per game in Grant Holmes's last five starts. Tomoyuki Sugano's 5.64 xERA over his last 3 is well under his 8.36 ERA in the same window, so the run totals behind him overstate how hittable he has been, and Colorado's bullpen comes in fresh at 2.0 relief innings over the past two days behind a 4.70 xERA over its last 12. Six runs from this lineup is priced as a live outcome when its recent form points a run and a half lower.
Found at 3:36 PM ET
Dean Kremer o5.5 Ks (+110)
Kremer has a 26.9 K% and a 33.3 Whiff% over his last 3 starts, striking out 7, 6 and 5 while averaging 5.9 innings, and the White Sox are the right opponent for it: a 26.6 K% and 27.7 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6, with a 23.7 K% over their last 12 confirming this is how they hit rather than a bad week. He has also gone 5.7 innings a start across 3 meetings with Chicago for 5.0 strikeouts a time, so the length is there. Plus money on a number he has met or beaten in each of his last three starts against a lineup that strikes out more than a quarter of the time is the mispricing.
Found at 2:21 AM ET
Andrew Painter o5.5 Ks (+122)
The Angels are striking out at a 34.1% clip vs RHP over their last 6 with a 28.1 Whiff%, and their 27.2 K% over their last 12 says the swing-and-miss is real rather than a one-week blip. Painter carries a 22.5 K% and 26.0 Whiff% over his last 3 starts and just went 7 innings on 103 pitches with 8 strikeouts and no walks against St. Louis; his 16.5 outs line means the market expects him past five and a half innings again. Against a lineup missing a third of its swings, plus money on six strikeouts undersells both the rate and the length.
Found at 2:21 AM ET
PHI @ LAA u8.0 (-105)
Detmers has a 2.20 xERA and 0.45 ERA over his last 3 starts while averaging 6.7 innings, and at home across 3 starts he sits at a 1.42 ERA over 6.3 innings a time; Philadelphia meets him with a 94 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6. On the other side Painter's 3.25 xERA over his last 3 faces a Los Angeles lineup at 97 wRC+ vs RHP over both its last 6 and last 12. Both bullpens are strong — Philadelphia at a 3.02 xERA and Los Angeles at 2.76 over the last 12 games — so there is no soft middle innings to inflate this, and the Angels have gone under in 8 of their last 10 at home. Eight runs is roughly a league-average posting for a game with two of the better arms on the slate and two lineups hitting below the league mean.
Found at 2:21 AM ET
Reid Detmers u6.5 Ks (-159)
Philadelphia is striking out at a 9.4% clip vs LHP over its last 6 with an 11.2 Whiff%, down from an already-low 13.0% over its last 12 — the hardest lineup on the board to miss bats against. Reid Detmers's 7.3 strikeouts per start over his last 3 came against Texas twice at a 16% strikeout rate and Kansas City, and even his 30.1 K% over that window projects near five against a lineup putting this much in play over roughly 25 batters. The juice buys a number the Phillies' contact rate should keep well out of reach.
Found at 3:36 PM ET
Brandon Young u17.5 Outs (+104)
Brandon Young has averaged 5.2 IP per start over his last 3 — 6.0, 4.0 and 5.2 innings — so the posted number asks for a longer outing than he has produced in two of three, and his 10.0 BB% over that window is the kind of command that runs a pitch count up early. He faces an Athletics lineup at 118 wRC+ vs RHP over both its last 6 and last 12 games, and in his one meeting with them this month he was gone after 3.0 innings and 74 pitches. A coin-flip price on six full innings understates how often this outing ends in the sixth.
Found at 3:36 PM ET
SFG Team Total o3.5 (-102)
Kohl Drake carries an 8.79 xERA and a 50.0 HH% allowed over his last 3 starts while averaging only 3.9 innings, and he has not pitched in 22 days; his three outings produced 4, 2 and 3 earned runs over 4.0, 4.0 and 3.2 innings. San Francisco meets him with a 93 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and a 43.3 HH% in that window, and once Drake is out they get an Arizona bullpen carrying a 5.00 xERA over the last 12 games for four or five innings. With the wind blowing out 16 mph, four runs against a starter this short and a relief corps this leaky is priced as a coin flip when it should be the likelier outcome.
Found at 2:21 AM ET
Kohl Drake u14.5 Outs (+125)
Kohl Drake has averaged 3.9 IP per start over his last 3 and has not recorded a 13th out in any of them — 4.0, 4.0 and 3.2 innings, with pitch counts of 64, 94 and 82. He takes the mound tonight 22 days removed from his last start, which is not the profile of an arm being stretched to five full innings, and he carries an 8.79 xERA over that same three-start window against a San Francisco lineup at 110 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6. The market is pricing him to reach 15 outs 58% of the time when his own recent workload has not produced 12.
Found at 3:36 PM ET
SFG Moneyline (+107)
Blade Tidwell carries a 2.97 xERA over his last 3 into a matchup with an Arizona lineup at 68 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 80 over its last 12 — poor in both windows. The other half is worse for the visitors: Kohl Drake's 8.79 xERA and 6.94 ERA over his last 3 against a San Francisco club at 110 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6, with Arizona's bullpen sitting on a 5.30 xERA over its last 12 to clean up after 3.9 innings of starter. San Francisco has the better starter, the better recent lineup and the better bullpen, and is still priced as the underdog.
Found at 3:36 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
CHC Team Total o4.5 (-106)
Chicago is at a 159 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 127 over their last 12, with both windows pointing the same direction, and they draw Rhett Lowder, who has generated a 10.1 Whiff% and a 12.8 K% over his last 3 starts — nothing that misses a bat. Lowder has allowed 7, 8 and 6 hits in those three outings while working 6 innings a start, so the contact keeps coming, and behind him Cincinnati's bullpen carries a 4.10 xERA with a 13.4 BB% over the last 12 games on elevated rest. Five runs is priced as a coin flip against a lineup hitting like this facing an arm with no swing-and-miss.
Found at 2:21 AM ET
Rhett Lowder u3.5 Ks (+116)
Lowder's 10.1 Whiff% over his last 3 starts is the lowest on the board and his 12.8 K% in that window matches it — the process and the outcome agree that he does not miss bats. He struck out 4, 5 and 1 across those starts for a 3.3 average. The Cubs have a 17.8 K% and a 19.9 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6, both below average and both corroborated by a 19.8 K% over their last 12, and a lineup swinging at a 159 wRC+ clip over its last 6 is more likely to shorten his outing than lengthen it. Plus money on a number he has cleared only by a strikeout or two in his better recent outings is the wrong price.
Found at 2:21 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
CIN @ 
CHC✓2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldPitcher Friendly
CIN @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Rhett Lowder R
xERA3.91 (avg)ERA4.50 (below)K%12.8 (below)Whiff%10.1 (poor)
More Stats
HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%9.5 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs88BB%5.1 (good)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+159 (elite)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%19.9 (above)HH%37.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+127 (above)K%19.8 (above)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%35.1 (avg)
David Peterson L
xERA3.61 (good)ERA3.65 (good)K%26.8 (good)Whiff%31.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.2 (avg)Barrel%2.9 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs63BB%10.7 (below)
CIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+64 (poor)K%17.7 (above)Whiff%17.0 (elite)HH%22.2 (poor)
L12
wRC+79 (poor)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%28.2 (poor)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 4.10 (avg)ERA 4.25 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 4.26 (avg)ERA 3.80 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+700+2.5 (+117)O8.5 (-130)CHC-880-2.5 (-145)U8.5 (+106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+154+0.5 (+100)O4.5 (-114)CHC-196-0.5 (-130)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UCIN3.5 (+100/-128)CHC4.5 (-106/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URhett Lowder3.5 (-140 / +116)15.5 (-117 / -113)David Peterson5.5 (+123 / +122)16.5 (-121 / -109)
Rhett Lowder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28@ L3.17236033
L3.17236033Aug 22@ 
W6.09216134
W6.09216134Aug 17vs 
W6.29958244
W6.29958244Aug 12@ 
L5.19447122
L5.19447122Aug 5vs 
W6.09534222
W6.09534222David Peterson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28vs W4.07055211
W4.07055211Aug 22@ 
L6.09884222
L6.09884222Aug 17vs W1.1*2210100
W1.1*2210100Aug 12@ 
W5.09069334
W5.09069334Aug 6vs 
W5.08937311
W5.08937311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Rhett Lowder
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC3.08.85poor2.03.52.0(2)
at CHC3.08.85poor2.03.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28@ L3.17236033
L3.17236033May 7@ L3.05911433
L3.05911433David Peterson
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.57.00poor4.58.02.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28vs W4.07055211
W4.07055211May 26vs L5.090411366
L5.090411366home starts4.52.00elite4.06.02.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28vs W4.07055211
W4.07055211Aug 6vs W5.08937311
W5.08937311Trends · CIN
- CIN are 1-6 vs CHC this season (7 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 4-1 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-3 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 4.6 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.0 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 2-3 to the over in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-2 to the over in Rhett Lowder's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 6-1 vs CIN this season (7 games).
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 4-1 in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-2 in David Peterson's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 6.2 runs/game in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 4.0 runs/game in David Peterson's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 5-0 to the over in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-0 to the over in David Peterson's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
78°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph ESE
APF 97 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 7
- CIN bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- CHC bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: recent opponents high-K: CHW 27%, STL 26%
- CHC — David Peterson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-17
- CHC — David Peterson: recent opponents high-K: WSN 33%, SEA 28%
- TREND: CHC — was shut out 2-0 last time out (2026-08-26)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
CHC Team Total o4.5 (-106)
Chicago is at a 159 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 127 over their last 12, with both windows pointing the same direction, and they draw Rhett Lowder, who has generated a 10.1 Whiff% and a 12.8 K% over his last 3 starts — nothing that misses a bat. Lowder has allowed 7, 8 and 6 hits in those three outings while working 6 innings a start, so the contact keeps coming, and behind him Cincinnati's bullpen carries a 4.10 xERA with a 13.4 BB% over the last 12 games on elevated rest. Five runs is priced as a coin flip against a lineup hitting like this facing an arm with no swing-and-miss.
Rhett Lowder u3.5 Ks (+116)
Lowder's 10.1 Whiff% over his last 3 starts is the lowest on the board and his 12.8 K% in that window matches it — the process and the outcome agree that he does not miss bats. He struck out 4, 5 and 1 across those starts for a 3.3 average. The Cubs have a 17.8 K% and a 19.9 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6, both below average and both corroborated by a 19.8 K% over their last 12, and a lineup swinging at a 159 wRC+ clip over its last 6 is more likely to shorten his outing than lengthen it. Plus money on a number he has cleared only by a strikeout or two in his better recent outings is the wrong price.
LAD @ 
DET✓6:40 PM · Comerica ParkNeutral Conditions
LAD @ DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tarik Skubal L
xERA2.55 (elite)ERA3.50 (good)K%32.0 (elite)Whiff%31.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs103BB%6.7 (good)
DET vs LHP
L6
wRC+63 (poor)K%16.2 (above)Whiff%16.9 (elite)HH%36.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+56 (poor)K%23.7 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%38.3 (avg)
Drew Anderson R
xERA4.19 (avg)ERA4.50 (below)K%22.0 (avg)Whiff%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs73BB%8.5 (avg)
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+94 (below)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
L12
wRC+100 (avg)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%23.8 (avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 3.26 (good)ERA 3.18 (good)2d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 4.57 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-174-1.5 (+100)O7.5 (+105)DET+168+1.5 (-118)U7.5 (-122)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-200-0.5 (-138)O3.5 (-128)DET+172+0.5 (+106)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD4.5 (+108/-135)2.5 (+124/-160)DET2.5 (-136/+110)1.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTarik Skubal7.5 (+110 / +132)18.5 (+107 / -136)Drew Anderson4.5 (-101 / -122)14.5 (-127 / -102)
Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs 
W7.0106115133
W7.0106115133Aug 16vs 
L6.010977212
L6.010977212Aug 10vs 
W5.09564233
W5.09564233Aug 4@ L6.08564222
L6.08564222Jul 29vs 
L6.29264133
L6.29264133Drew Anderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ L5.07545133
L5.07545133Aug 16vs L5.07454233
L5.07454233Aug 11vs 
W4.07044211
W4.07044211Aug 5@ L3.24203100
L3.24203100Aug 2@ W1.1*2221000
W1.1*2221000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Drew Anderson
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD—
home starts4.54.00avg4.54.02.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L5.07454233
L5.07454233Aug 11vs W4.07044211
W4.07044211Trends · LAD
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 2-2 in Tarik Skubal's last 4 starts.
- LAD are 0-1 in Tarik Skubal's last 1 away starts.
- LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 4 starts.
- LAD average 1.0 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 2-2 to the over in Tarik Skubal's last 4 starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 2-3 in Drew Anderson's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-2 in Drew Anderson's last 3 home starts.
- DET average 4.6 runs/game in Drew Anderson's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.3 runs/game in Drew Anderson's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 1-2 to the over in Drew Anderson's last 3 starts.
- DET are 1-1 to the over in Drew Anderson's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 8 mph E
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 9
- LAD bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g)
- DET bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: last start: 106 pitches over 7.0 IP
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: KCR 30%, PIT 31%
- DET — Drew Anderson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-02, 2026-07-29
- DET — Drew Anderson: last start: 75 pitches over 5.0 IP
- DET — Drew Anderson: recent opponents low-K: CLE 14%, KCR 18%
- TREND: LAD — lost the last game 1-0 (2026-08-27)
- TREND: DET — was shut out 3-0 last time out (2026-08-26)
LAD @ DET u7.5 (-120)
Detroit brings a 63 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 56 over their last 12 — the two windows agree, so this is what the lineup is — against Skubal's 2.55 xERA and 32.0 K% over his last 3 starts, in which he has gone 5, 6 and 7 innings. Los Angeles answers with an 89 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 against Drew Anderson, whose 4.19 xERA over his last 3 is ordinary but who has held Cleveland and Chicago to 1 and 3 earned runs across 4 and 5 innings in that stretch. Detroit has gone under in 9 of their last 10 and 7 of their last 10 at home. The posted number sits near the league-average total for a game where one side is unlikely to reach three runs.
Tarik Skubal u7.5 Ks (+132)
Detroit is striking out just 16.2% of the time vs LHP over its last 6 with a 16.9 Whiff% — a contact-heavy stretch, and well below the 23.7% they posted over their last 12. Tarik Skubal's 8.0 strikeouts per start over his last 3 were built against Kansas City at a 30% strikeout rate and Pittsburgh at 31%, both far more swing-and-miss than what he sees tonight, and his outs line at 18.5 caps the outing at roughly six innings of work. Eight strikeouts is being priced as a coin flip against a lineup putting the ball in play at this rate.
MIA @ WSN✓6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
MIA @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Eury Perez R
xERA2.82 (elite)ERA0.50 (elite)K%23.5 (good)Whiff%29.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs100BB%14.7 (poor)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+104 (avg)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%18.5 (above)HH%27.0 (poor)
L12
wRC+87 (below)K%20.1 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%30.0 (below)
Jackson Kent L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
MIA vs LHP
L6
wRC+84 (below)K%26.4 (below)Whiff%26.5 (below)HH%31.8 (below)
L12
wRC+89 (below)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%25.9 (below)HH%34.5 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 2.86 (elite)ERA 4.00 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 3.71 (good)ERA 4.76 (below)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-146-1.5 (+114)O8.5 (+100)WSN+137+1.5 (-131)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-160-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (+100)WSN+134+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA4.5 (-104/-115)2.5 (+105/-135)WSN3.5 (-102/-115)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEury Perez5.5 (-110 / -110)17.5 (-125 / +116)Jackson Kent4.5 (+126 / +134)15.5 (+120 / +113)
Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W5.010043312
W5.010043312Aug 16@ W6.010052500
W6.010052500Aug 11vs W7.010073200
W7.010073200Aug 5@ 
L5.09197244
L5.09197244Jul 30@ 
L6.09763212
L6.09763212Jackson Kent · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L4.29054333
L4.29054333Aug 18@ 
L3.28438355
L3.28438355Aug 12vs L4.07863533
L4.07863533SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eury Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN4.76.97poor4.36.01.3(3)
at WSN4.09.00poor1.06.02.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W5.010043312
W5.010043312Sep 10vs W5.29677033
W5.29677033Sep 3@ L4.07628177
L4.07628177Jun 15@ W4.07904311
W4.07904311Jackson Kent
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA4.26.43poor5.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L4.29054333
L4.29054333home starts4.06.75poor6.03.05.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs L4.07863533
L4.07863533Trends · MIA
- MIA are 8-1 vs WSN this season (9 games).
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 3-2 in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 3.2 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 4.0 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-3 to the over in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-1 to the over in Eury Perez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 1-8 vs MIA this season (9 games).
- WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 0-3 in Jackson Kent's last 3 starts.
- WSN are 0-1 in Jackson Kent's last 1 home starts.
- WSN average 2.7 runs/game in Jackson Kent's last 3 starts.
- WSN average 6.0 runs/game in Jackson Kent's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
82°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph E
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- WSN — Jackson Kent: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- WSN bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
- WSN — Jackson Kent: recent opponents high-K: CHC 25%, MIA 26%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
Eury Perez u17.5 Outs (+116)
Eury Perez has needed 100 pitches in each of his last 3 starts to get 7.0, 6.0 and 5.0 innings, and his 14.7 BB% over that window is what keeps those counts high. Washington has been the specific problem: 4.7 IP per start across three meetings, including 5.0 innings on 100 pitches a week ago, and 4.0 IP per start across two outings at this park. With the Nationals at 104 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, up from 87 over their last 12, plus money on him falling short of six innings is priced off his overall depth rather than the depth this lineup has actually allowed him.
KCR @ CLE✓7:10 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
KCR @ CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Michael Wacha R
xERA3.36 (good)ERA3.86 (avg)K%19.2 (avg)Whiff%19.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.8 (avg)Barrel%10.5 (avg)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs90BB%1.4 (elite)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+132 (elite)K%13.8 (elite)Whiff%13.3 (elite)HH%40.6 (above)
L12
wRC+107 (avg)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%16.1 (elite)HH%36.7 (avg)
Tanner Bibee R
xERA3.31 (good)ERA4.91 (below)K%16.7 (below)Whiff%22.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%41.4 (below)Barrel%3.5 (elite)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs96BB%7.7 (avg)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+149 (elite)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%38.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+139 (elite)K%18.4 (above)Whiff%20.1 (above)HH%38.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.11 (avg)ERA 3.69 (good)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 2.44 (elite)ERA 1.39 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+124+1.5 (-193)O7.5 (+100)CLE-129-1.5 (+162)U7.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+102+0.5 (-148)O4.5 (+116)CLE-128-0.5 (+114)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR3.5 (+102/-130)1.5 (-135/+105)CLE3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Wacha3.5 (-153 / +120)17.5 (-162 / +131)Tanner Bibee4.5 (-110 / -107)17.5 (-165 / +145)
Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W7.09663111
W7.09663111Aug 17vs W5.07936044
W5.07936044Aug 11@ L6.29657033
L6.29657033Aug 6vs 
L5.29413311
L5.29413311Jul 31@ 
L6.09975013
L6.09975013Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ W6.09665122
W6.09665122Aug 16vs 
L6.09637333
L6.09637333Aug 11@ L6.19645256
L6.19645256Aug 5vs L5.298104034
L5.298104034Jul 31vs L7.110033122
L7.110033122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Wacha
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE6.41.88elite3.73.31.7(3)
at CLE7.01.29elite3.03.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 4vs W7.07934122
W7.07934122Apr 6@ W7.010233311
W7.010233311Jul 26vs W5.18053111
W5.18053111Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR4.46.14poor5.05.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 4@ L4.07745244
L4.07745244Apr 6vs L4.28735111
L4.28735111Jul 26@ W5.09387044
W5.09387044home starts6.13.93avg5.34.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L6.09637333
L6.09637333Aug 5vs L5.298104034
L5.298104034Jul 31vs L7.110033122
L7.110033122Trends · KCR
- KCR are 3-4 vs CLE this season (7 games).
- KCR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 4.0 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 2.4 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-3 to the over in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 to the over in Michael Wacha's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 4-3 vs KCR this season (7 games).
- CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE have won 7 straight.
- CLE are 1-4 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-4 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 2.8 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 5.0 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-1 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NNE
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- KCR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- KCR — Michael Wacha: 2026-08-17: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.82 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: 2026-08-11: 5 ER in 6.1 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.75 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
Tanner Bibee u17.5 Outs (+145)
Kansas City has run Tanner Bibee's pitch count up in all three meetings this season — 5.0 innings on 93 pitches, 4.2 on 87 and 4.0 on 77, an average of 4.4 IP per start against them — and they arrive at 149 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 139 over their last 12, elite in both windows. His three 6-inning outings over his last 3 starts came against Detroit, San Diego and Colorado, and Cleveland's bullpen has a 2.44 xERA over its last 12 with only 3.0 relief innings in the past two days, so there is no need to push him. The market is paying plus money on the outcome this lineup has forced every time it has faced him.
HOU @ NYM✓7:10 PM · Citi FieldRainy
HOU @ NYM✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Hunter Brown R
xERA4.16 (avg)ERA3.45 (good)K%18.8 (avg)Whiff%14.2 (below)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%15.9 (poor)
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+115 (above)K%19.3 (above)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%43.4 (above)
L12
wRC+121 (above)K%20.7 (avg)Whiff%21.3 (avg)HH%41.5 (above)
Christian Scott R
xERA4.38 (avg)ERA6.60 (poor)K%26.8 (good)Whiff%31.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%11.9 (below)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs89BB%9.9 (avg)
HOU vs RHP
L6
wRC+108 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%41.0 (above)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%24.7 (below)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%37.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 5.94 (poor)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 2.60 (elite)ERA 2.49 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU-104-1.5 (+149)O7.5 (-115)NYM-102+1.5 (-176)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU-105-0.5 (+125)O4.5 (+106)NYM-110+0.5 (-164)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU3.5 (-138/+110)1.5 (-135/+105)NYM3.5 (-125/-102)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UHunter Brown5.5 (+114 / +124)17.5 (-102 / -116)Christian Scott5.5 (-142 / +125)15.5 (-129 / +102)
Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs L5.210147311
L5.210147311Aug 16vs L5.09053522
L5.09053522Aug 11@ 
L5.08945333
L5.08945333Aug 5vs L6.09383233
L6.09383233Jul 31vs W5.210456222
W5.210456222Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ W4.29465444
W4.29465444Aug 16vs W6.19075233
W6.19075233Aug 10@ W4.08267144
W4.08267144Aug 5@ W5.09676233
W5.09676233Jul 29vs L6.09875111
L6.09875111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Hunter Brown
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM6.03.00good7.04.03.0(1)
at NYM—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Mar 28vs L6.09674323
L6.09674323Christian Scott
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU—
home starts5.72.11elite6.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs W6.19075233
W6.19075233Jul 29vs L6.09875111
L6.09875111Jul 8vs W5.09053100
W5.09053100Trends · HOU
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 1-4 in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 2-3 in Hunter Brown's last 5 away starts.
- HOU average 4.2 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 3.4 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 2-3 to the over in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 0-2 to the over in Hunter Brown's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 4-1 in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 3-2 in Christian Scott's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 5.6 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 3.2 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 4-1 to the over in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
Weather · Rainy
75°F, Light Drizzle, Wind 7 mph NE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- HOU bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
- NYM bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- HOU — Hunter Brown: last start: 101 pitches over 5.2 IP
Hunter Brown u5.5 Ks (-135)
Brown has posted a 14.2 Whiff% and an 18.8 K% over his last 3 starts, with a 15.9 BB% and a 2.9 K-BB% that show an arm working around contact rather than through it. His strikeout totals in those three starts were 4, 5 and 4 — he has not reached six once. The Mets have run a 17.2 K% vs RHP over their last 6 and 20.9 over their last 12, one of the lowest-strikeout groups he could draw, and even his 17.5 outs line does not buy enough batters to make up the gap. The number is set a full strikeout above anything he has produced recently against a lineup that puts the ball in play.
NYM ML (+108)
New York carries a 132 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 134 over their last 12 — established form, not a streak — against a starter with a 4.16 xERA and a 2.9 K-BB% over his last 3 who has walked 3, 5 and 3 in those outings. Houston counters with a 96 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 (84 over their last 12) against Christian Scott, whose 4.38 xERA over his last 3 sits well under his 6.60 ERA in the same window and whose home work reads 2.11 ERA across 3 starts. The Mets bullpen has a 2.76 xERA over the last 12 games against Houston's 5.53 ERA in that window. The market has the weaker lineup and the weaker relief corps favored.
SDP @ 
TBR7:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
SDP @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Casey Mize R
xERA4.08 (avg)ERA3.68 (good)K%15.5 (below)Whiff%14.3 (below)
More Stats
HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%15.6 (poor)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs72BB%6.9 (good)
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+72 (poor)K%16.2 (above)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%33.7 (below)
L12
wRC+94 (below)K%16.3 (above)Whiff%20.1 (above)HH%32.2 (below)
Shane McClanahan L
xERA3.65 (good)ERA3.18 (good)K%23.9 (good)Whiff%27.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%58.1 (poor)Barrel%9.7 (avg)IP/gs3.8 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs60BB%6.5 (good)
SDP vs LHP
L6
wRC+107 (avg)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%26.3 (below)HH%38.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+87 (below)K%30.0 (poor)Whiff%28.2 (poor)HH%37.5 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.51 (elite)ERA 2.08 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 3.69 (good)ERA 4.60 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+120+1.5 (-193)O7.5 (+100)TBR-126-1.5 (+165)U7.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+124+0.5 (-132)O3.5 (-144)TBR-145-0.5 (+102)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP3.5 (-102/-120)1.5 (-115/-115)TBR3.5 (-122/+100)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCasey Mize3.5 (+114 / -117)15.5 (+102 / -120)Shane McClanahan4.5 (+108 / -138)15.5 (+168 / +166)
Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W2.24704144
W2.24704144Aug 16@ W6.08633100
W6.08633100Aug 10vs W6.08365222
W6.08365222Aug 5@ L3.17719388
L3.17719388Jul 25vs L6.08533011
L6.08533011Shane McClanahan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ L5.07454100
L5.07454100Aug 17vs W3.15734033
W3.15734033Jul 30vs W3.04930211
W3.04930211Jul 24vs W5.07132211
W5.07132211Jul 19@ 
L5.08735356
L5.08735356SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Casey Mize
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.01.80elite5.06.00.0(1)
at TBR5.01.80elite5.06.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 22@ W5.08056011
W5.08056011Shane McClanahan
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP—
home starts3.74.05avg3.02.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs W3.15734033
W3.15734033Jul 30vs W3.04930211
W3.04930211Jul 24vs W5.07132211
W5.07132211Trends · SDP
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 3-1 in Casey Mize's last 4 starts.
- SDP are 1-1 in Casey Mize's last 2 away starts.
- SDP average 4.8 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 4 starts.
- SDP average 4.5 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 2-3 to the over in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-2 to the over in Casey Mize's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 4-1 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 4.8 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 5.8 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 2-3 to the over in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 2-1 to the over in Shane McClanahan's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 8
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: avg 3.8 IP/gs over his last 3
- SDP bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- SDP — Casey Mize: last start: 47 pitches over 2.2 IP
- SDP — Casey Mize: 2026-08-22: 4 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.50 ERA equivalent
- SDP — Casey Mize: recent opponents low-K: MIL 18%, CLE 14%, MIN 15%
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: last start: 74 pitches over 5.0 IP
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: 2026-08-17: 3 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.50 ERA equivalent
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: recent opponents high-K: BAL 27%, BAL 27%
AI Analysis
Casey Mize carries a 4.08 xERA over his last 3 but lasted just 2.2 innings on 47 pitches last time out, and Shane McClanahan is averaging 3.8 innings per start over his last 3, so this is a game decided by two bullpens — the total at 7.5 and the Rays at -126 already account for that. Mize's strikeout line at 3.5 is fair against a Tampa Bay lineup striking out only 16.2% of the time vs RHP over its last 6, and his outs number at 15.5 is priced for the short outing his last start suggests. McClanahan's 4.5 strikeouts and 15.5 outs both sit at his recent workload of 3.7 strikeouts and under four innings per start, with the outs market priced at +168 both ways.
COL @ ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
COL @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tomoyuki Sugano R
xERA5.64 (poor)ERA8.36 (poor)K%15.4 (below)Whiff%17.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%41.5 (below)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs91BB%3.1 (elite)
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+81 (below)K%24.3 (below)Whiff%28.4 (poor)HH%37.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+66 (poor)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%23.2 (avg)HH%40.2 (above)
Grant Holmes R
xERA5.26 (poor)ERA3.45 (good)K%12.7 (below)Whiff%31.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%51.1 (poor)Barrel%6.4 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs79BB%12.7 (below)
COL vs RHP
L6
wRC+105 (avg)K%23.1 (avg)Whiff%25.5 (below)HH%42.6 (above)
L12
wRC+97 (avg)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%24.5 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.70 (below)ERA 3.99 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 3.22 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+201+1.5 (-109)O9.0 (-108)ATL-217-1.5 (-108)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+168+0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-148)ATL-210-0.5 (-146)U4.5 (+114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (-108/-115)1.5 (-140/+110)ATL5.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTomoyuki Sugano2.5 (-177 / +146)15.5 (+118 / -157)Grant Holmes4.5 (-129 / +112)15.5 (-120 / -102)
Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs L3.09229155
L3.09229155Aug 17vs L5.08937167
L5.08937167Aug 11@ W6.09356022
W6.09356022Aug 5vs L5.08535233
L5.08535233Jul 31vs W6.28325011
W6.28325011Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20@ W6.09431300
W6.09431300Aug 15vs L3.26536366
L3.26536366Aug 9@ 
W6.07723200
W6.07723200Aug 4vs W6.07255100
W6.07255100Jul 30vs W4.26945233
W4.26945233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs COL5.55.68poor9.55.02.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 1@ W5.08747356
W5.08747356Jun 15vs L6.193153223
L6.193153223home starts4.56.04poor4.05.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L3.26536366
L3.26536366Aug 4vs W6.07255100
W6.07255100Jul 30vs W4.26945233
W4.26945233Trends · COL
- COL are 0-3 vs ATL this season (3 games).
- COL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 2-3 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 2.6 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL average 9.4 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 1-4 to the over in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL are 0-2 to the over in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 2 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 3-0 vs COL this season (3 games).
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL have won 4 straight.
- ATL are 4-1 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 3.2 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 5.0 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 1-4 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 1-2 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph S
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- ATL — Grant Holmes: Whiff% 31.2 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 12.7 shows
- COL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- ATL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: recent opponents low-K: ARI 16%, CLE 14%
- ATL — Grant Holmes: 2026-08-15: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- ATL — Grant Holmes: recent opponents high-K: NYY 27%, CHW 27%
ATL Team Total u5.5 (-135)
Atlanta's offense is at 81 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 66 over its last 12 — below average in the short window and worse in the long one — and it has produced 3.2 runs per game in Grant Holmes's last five starts. Tomoyuki Sugano's 5.64 xERA over his last 3 is well under his 8.36 ERA in the same window, so the run totals behind him overstate how hittable he has been, and Colorado's bullpen comes in fresh at 2.0 relief innings over the past two days behind a 4.70 xERA over its last 12. Six runs from this lineup is priced as a live outcome when its recent form points a run and a half lower.
BOS @ NYY✓7:15 PM · Yankee StadiumHitter Friendly
BOS @ NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Patrick Sandoval L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYY vs LHP
L6
wRC+147 (elite)K%20.9 (avg)Whiff%33.3 (poor)HH%50.0 (elite)
L12
wRC+104 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)Whiff%31.9 (poor)HH%47.8 (elite)
Cam Schlittler R
xERA2.40 (elite)ERA1.47 (elite)K%30.6 (elite)Whiff%35.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.6 (avg)Barrel%4.5 (elite)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs96BB%8.3 (avg)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+103 (avg)K%17.1 (above)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%31.8 (below)
L12
wRC+124 (above)K%18.4 (above)Whiff%19.6 (above)HH%32.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.35 (good)ERA 1.71 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 3.25 (good)ERA 3.07 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS+138+1.5 (-170)O7.0 (-114)NYY-147-1.5 (+141)U7.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS+154+0.5 (-106)O3.5 (-140)NYY-192-0.5 (-122)U3.5 (+108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS3.5 (+114/+124)1.5 (+110/-140)NYY3.5 (-125/+100)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPatrick Sandoval5.5 (+116 / -121)16.5 (+101 / +102)Cam Schlittler7.5 (+123 / +105)17.5 (-158 / +122)
Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W5.29365222
W5.29365222Aug 16@ L4.08969377
L4.08969377Aug 11@ L6.08448324
L6.08448324Aug 4vs W5.08956422
W5.08956422Jul 29@ W5.09275222
W5.09275222Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs W6.09646311
W6.09646311Aug 15@ L5.19774311
L5.19774311Aug 9vs L7.096113011
L7.096113011Aug 3vs L3.08364544
L3.08364544Jul 29@ L6.19382111
L6.19382111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cam Schlittler
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS6.10.99elite6.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 25@ L5.09295204
L5.09295204Jun 7vs W5.29254111
W5.29254111Apr 23@ W8.09654112
W8.09654112home starts5.33.38good7.04.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs W6.09646311
W6.09646311Aug 9vs L7.096113011
L7.096113011Aug 3vs L3.08364544
L3.08364544Trends · BOS
- BOS are 5-5 vs NYY this season (10 games).
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 3-2 in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-2 in Patrick Sandoval's last 4 away starts.
- BOS average 5.4 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 3.0 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 3-2 to the over in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-1 to the over in Patrick Sandoval's last 3 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 5-5 vs BOS this season (10 games).
- NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 1-4 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-4 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.4 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 2.6 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-2 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
78°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 5 mph NNW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- BOS — Patrick Sandoval: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- NYY offense: Whiff% 33.3 (last 6) runs well above what K% 20.9 shows
- BOS — Patrick Sandoval: 2026-08-16: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.23 ERA equivalent
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: recent opponents low-K: TOR 15%, TOR 15%
- TREND: BOS — was shut out 4-0 last time out (2026-08-26)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
Patrick Sandoval u15.5 Outs (-109)
Sandoval averages 5.2 innings over his last 3 starts, which puts this line exactly at his working depth, and he walks into the toughest possible spot for it: the Yankees are at a 139 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 with a 44.4 HH% in that window, up sharply from 100 over their last 12. His 10.7 BB% over his last 3 has already produced 3, 3 and 2 free passes and an 89-pitch, 4-inning outing at Pittsburgh where he allowed 9 hits and 7 earned runs. Boston's bullpen is rested at normal usage with a 1.71 ERA over the last 12 games, so there is no reason to push him through a third time against this lineup, and the price treats his depth as a coin flip in a matchup that argues for an early hook.
SEA @ TOR7:15 PM · Rogers CentreNeutral Conditions
SEA @ TORMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Emerson Hancock R
xERA2.52 (elite)ERA3.63 (good)K%21.8 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%33.9 (good)Barrel%5.4 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs97BB%3.9 (elite)
TOR vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%15.3 (elite)Whiff%16.7 (elite)HH%38.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%18.7 (above)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%34.5 (below)
Dylan Cease R
xERA2.42 (elite)ERA3.00 (good)K%33.8 (elite)Whiff%34.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%27.0 (elite)Barrel%5.4 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs106BB%16.2 (poor)
SEA vs RHP
L6
wRC+119 (above)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%32.9 (below)
L12
wRC+129 (above)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%23.0 (avg)HH%34.5 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.73 (below)ERA 7.86 (poor)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 2.90 (elite)ERA 3.47 (good)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+136+1.5 (-170)O7.0 (+100)TOR-141-1.5 (+146)U7.0 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+135+0.5 (-122)O3.5 (-118)TOR-164-0.5 (-106)U3.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA2.5 (-145/+118)1.5 (+120/-154)TOR3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEmerson Hancock3.5 (-111 / -104)17.5 (-132 / +110)Dylan Cease7.5 (-122 / +102)17.5 (-180 / +146)
Emerson Hancock · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs W5.29868033
W5.29868033Aug 15@ W7.09785222
W7.09785222Aug 9vs L4.29639122
L4.29639122Aug 4vs L6.09468234
L6.09468234Jul 29@ L5.09258133
L5.09258133Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ W6.211182511
W6.211182511Aug 16vs L6.1104102322
L6.1104102322Aug 11vs W5.010475433
W5.010475433Aug 6@ L7.0104102100
L7.0104102100Jul 31vs W6.09673311
W6.09673311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Emerson Hancock
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR7.00.00elite5.02.02.0(1)
at TOR—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs W7.09252200
W7.09252200Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA5.53.24good7.03.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3@ W7.010293100
W7.010293100Aug 26@ W4.18754344
W4.18754344home starts5.73.16good8.03.33.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L6.1104102322
L6.1104102322Aug 11vs W5.010475433
W5.010475433Jul 31vs W6.09673311
W6.09673311Trends · SEA
- SEA are 2-1 vs TOR this season (3 games).
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 2-3 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-3 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 3.8 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.2 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 2-2 to the over in Emerson Hancock's last 4 starts.
- SEA are 1-1 to the over in Emerson Hancock's last 2 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 1-2 vs SEA this season (3 games).
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-3 in Dylan Cease's last 5 home starts.
- TOR average 3.4 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.2 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 4-1 to the over in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-1 to the over in Dylan Cease's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
68°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph SE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- SEA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- TOR bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
- SEA — Emerson Hancock: recent opponents low-K: TBR 16%, CHC 18%
- TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 111 pitches over 6.2 IP
- TOR — Dylan Cease: recent opponents high-K: NYY 27%, NYY 27%
- TREND: SEA — was shut out 6-0 last time out (2026-08-26)
AI Analysis
Both starters have elite recent form — Emerson Hancock at a 2.52 xERA and Dylan Cease at 2.42 over their last 3 — against Seattle at 119 wRC+ and Toronto at 95 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, and the total at 7.0 with Toronto at -141 is already a low number for two stressed-to-elevated bullpens behind them. Cease's strikeout line at 7.5 asks for a top-end outing against a Blue Jays-facing Mariners club, and his 8.3 per start over his last 3 came against the Yankees at a 27% strikeout rate twice, so the number is fully priced; his outs line at 17.5 costs -180 after a 111-pitch start. Hancock's 3.5 strikeouts sits at the middle of his 5.7 per start range with no value either way, and his 17.5 outs line matches the 5.8 innings he has averaged.
TEX @ MIL7:40 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
TEX @ MILMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Cody Bradford L
xERA5.37 (poor)ERA3.86 (avg)K%11.9 (poor)Whiff%21.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%12.5 (below)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs79BB%3.0 (elite)
MIL vs LHP
L6
wRC+92 (below)K%18.1 (above)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%30.7 (below)
L12
wRC+106 (avg)K%21.3 (avg)Whiff%23.9 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Logan Henderson R
xERA2.78 (elite)ERA2.33 (elite)K%23.6 (good)Whiff%22.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%43.1 (below)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs95BB%5.6 (good)
TEX vs RHP
L6
wRC+139 (elite)K%19.9 (above)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%26.3 (below)Whiff%25.1 (below)HH%40.4 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 4.22 (avg)ERA 5.14 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 2.22 (elite)ERA 0.82 (elite)2d stress Stressed (8.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+188+1.5 (-120)O7.5 (-110)MIL-203-1.5 (+104)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+160+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (+116)MIL-192-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX3.5 (+126/+114)1.5 (+110/-140)MIL4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCody Bradford3.5 (-118 / -106)15.5 (+110 / -129)Logan Henderson6.5 (+103 / -120)17.5 (-166 / +130)
Cody Bradford · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs 
L5.18037022
L5.18037022Aug 16@ L4.08148122
L4.08148122Aug 11@ L7.07515133
L7.07515133Aug 5vs W4.17055200
W4.17055200Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W6.010045211
W6.010045211Aug 16@ W7.09363111
W7.09363111Aug 10@ L6.19175133
L6.19175133Aug 4vs W6.08384122
W6.08384122Jul 28@ W5.29372200
W5.29372200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Henderson
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX—
home starts5.72.65elite7.04.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W6.010045211
W6.010045211Aug 4vs W6.08384122
W6.08384122Jul 22vs W5.08095022
W5.08095022Trends · TEX
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 1-3 in Cody Bradford's last 4 starts.
- TEX are 0-2 in Cody Bradford's last 2 away starts.
- TEX average 2.5 runs/game in Cody Bradford's last 4 starts.
- TEX average 2.0 runs/game in Cody Bradford's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 0-4 to the over in Cody Bradford's last 4 starts.
- TEX are 0-2 to the over in Cody Bradford's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 4-1 in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 5-0 in Logan Henderson's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 4.8 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 3.8 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 2-3 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 0-3 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph SE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- TEX — Cody Bradford: Whiff% 21.0 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 11.9 shows
- TEX bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
- MIL bullpen stressed (8.7 IP over 1g)
AI Analysis
Logan Henderson's 2.78 xERA over his last 3 against a Milwaukee-hosted Texas club at 139 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 — up sharply from 105 over its last 12 — is a real collision, but Milwaukee at -203 and a 7.5 total leave nothing to buy on either side, especially with the Brewers bullpen carrying 8.7 relief innings over the past two days. Cody Bradford's strikeout line at 3.5 is fair for an arm at 2.7 per start whose 21.0 Whiff% over his last 3 suggests more strikeouts than his 11.9 K% shows, and his outs number at 15.5 matches the 5.4 innings he has averaged. Henderson's 6.5 strikeouts sits above his 5.7 per start, and his outs line at 17.5 costs -166 for the 6.4 innings he already goes.
CHW @ MIN✓8:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
CHW @ MIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Luis Castillo R
xERA4.88 (below)ERA4.40 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%31.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%10.9 (avg)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs94BB%6.2 (good)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+94 (below)K%15.3 (elite)Whiff%18.4 (above)HH%38.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+102 (avg)K%18.6 (above)Whiff%20.9 (above)HH%41.4 (above)
Dean Kremer R
xERA3.36 (good)ERA3.57 (good)K%26.9 (good)Whiff%33.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs93BB%9.0 (avg)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+130 (elite)K%26.6 (below)Whiff%27.7 (below)HH%29.7 (poor)
L12
wRC+109 (avg)K%23.7 (avg)Whiff%28.5 (poor)HH%33.8 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.49 (good)ERA 3.29 (good)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 4.55 (below)ERA 6.81 (poor)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+116+1.5 (-184)O9.0 (+100)MIN-124-1.5 (+160)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+105+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-132)MIN-128-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (+102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW4.5 (+110/+114)1.5 (-160/+124)MIN4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULuis Castillo3.5 (-162 / +132)15.5 (-105 / -111)Dean Kremer5.5 (+124 / -150)16.5 (-102 / -106)
Luis Castillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs L2.28038144
L2.28038144Aug 17@ L4.29918134
L4.29918134Aug 12vs W7.0104101200
W7.0104101200Aug 6@ L4.07156155
L4.07156155Jul 28@ W5.090211255
W5.090211255Dean Kremer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ L5.110153322
L5.110153322Aug 16vs 
L5.18965244
L5.18965244Aug 10vs W7.08971111
W7.08971111Aug 5@ L5.08823211
L5.08823211Jul 28@ L4.08148388
L4.08148388SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Luis Castillo
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN5.36.75poor3.76.02.0(3)
at MIN5.010.80poor3.07.02.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 27@ L5.09737277
L5.09737277Jun 24@ W5.09137255
W5.09137255Jun 1vs W6.09754200
W6.09754200Dean Kremer
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.72.09elite5.04.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1vs W6.07944111
W6.07944111Sep 16@ W5.29744322
W5.29744322May 31vs W6.010276211
W6.010276211home starts5.74.74below5.74.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L5.18965244
L5.18965244Aug 10vs W7.08971111
W7.08971111Jul 8vs L5.09246144
L5.09246144Trends · CHW
- CHW are 4-3 vs MIN this season (7 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 0-2 in Luis Castillo's last 2 away starts.
- CHW average 6.4 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 8.0 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-1 to the over in Luis Castillo's last 3 starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 3-4 vs CHW this season (7 games).
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 1-3 in Dean Kremer's last 4 starts.
- MIN are 1-1 in Dean Kremer's last 2 home starts.
- MIN average 5.0 runs/game in Dean Kremer's last 4 starts.
- MIN average 7.0 runs/game in Dean Kremer's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 3-2 to the over in Dean Kremer's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-0 to the over in Dean Kremer's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
82°F, Overcast, Wind 2 mph SSE
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- CHW — Luis Castillo: Whiff% 31.6 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 21.9 shows
- CHW bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- CHW — Luis Castillo: 2026-08-22: 4 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.21 ERA equivalent
- CHW — Luis Castillo: high-K outing 2026-08-12 (10 Ks vs avg 4.7 over his last 3)
- MIN — Dean Kremer: last start: 101 pitches over 5.1 IP
- MIN — Dean Kremer: 2026-08-16: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.41 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
Dean Kremer o5.5 Ks (+110)
Kremer has a 26.9 K% and a 33.3 Whiff% over his last 3 starts, striking out 7, 6 and 5 while averaging 5.9 innings, and the White Sox are the right opponent for it: a 26.6 K% and 27.7 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6, with a 23.7 K% over their last 12 confirming this is how they hit rather than a bad week. He has also gone 5.7 innings a start across 3 meetings with Chicago for 5.0 strikeouts a time, so the length is there. Plus money on a number he has met or beaten in each of his last three starts against a lineup that strikes out more than a quarter of the time is the mispricing.
PIT @ STL8:15 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
PIT @ STLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jared Jones R
xERA4.64 (below)ERA8.25 (poor)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%32.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs80BB%16.7 (poor)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+72 (poor)K%26.4 (below)Whiff%25.1 (below)HH%42.5 (above)
L12
wRC+97 (avg)K%24.8 (below)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%42.5 (above)
Quinn Mathews L
xERA2.91 (elite)ERA6.43 (poor)K%19.7 (avg)Whiff%25.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%28.3 (elite)Barrel%2.2 (elite)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs97BB%10.6 (below)
PIT vs LHP
L6
wRC+34 (poor)K%31.1 (poor)Whiff%28.6 (poor)HH%17.5 (poor)
L12
wRC+72 (poor)K%27.8 (below)Whiff%26.0 (below)HH%34.8 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 2.96 (elite)ERA 3.25 (good)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
STL
xERA 3.91 (avg)ERA 6.57 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT-113-1.5 (+150)O7.5 (-104)STL+105+1.5 (-175)U7.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-118-0.5 (+118)O4.5 (-102)STL-105+0.5 (-154)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-160/+124)STL3.5 (-104/-120)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJared Jones4.5 (-153 / +124)14.5 (-165 / +124)Quinn Mathews5.5 (-113 / -107)16.5 (-104 / -102)
Jared Jones · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ L4.08753522
L4.08753522Aug 15vs L5.08574211
L5.08574211Aug 9vs L3.06936388
L3.06936388Aug 4@ L4.08348133
L4.08348133Jul 29vs L6.07754233
L6.07754233Quinn Mathews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ L5.099310177
L5.099310177Aug 17@ W4.09572311
W4.09572311Aug 1@ L5.09736322
L5.09736322Trends · PIT
- PIT are 2-5 vs STL this season (7 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 0-5 in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Jared Jones's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 1.2 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 3.6 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 0-5 to the over in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 0-2 to the over in Jared Jones's last 2 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 5-2 vs PIT this season (7 games).
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 1-3 in Quinn Mathews's last 4 starts.
- STL average 1.5 runs/game in Quinn Mathews's last 4 starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 1-2 to the over in Quinn Mathews's last 3 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
83°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph ENE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- PIT bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
- STL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- PIT — Jared Jones: 2026-08-09: 8 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 24); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.15 ERA equivalent
- STL — Quinn Mathews: 2026-08-22: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.92 ERA equivalent
- STL — Quinn Mathews: recent opponents low-K: TOR 16%, CIN 18%, PHI 9%
- TREND: PIT — was shut out 3-0 last time out (2026-08-26)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
AI Analysis
Two of the coldest lineups on the board — Pittsburgh at 34 wRC+ vs LHP and St. Louis at 72 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 — meet two starters with ugly ERAs but much better xERAs, Jared Jones at 4.64 and Quinn Mathews at 2.91 over their last 3, and the 7.5 total with a pick'em moneyline already reflects that. Jones's strikeout line at 4.5 costs -153 for an arm averaging 5.0 per start with a 16.7 BB% that keeps his outings to 4.0 innings, and his outs line at 14.5 is already priced for that short leash at -165. Mathews at 5.5 strikeouts is fair against a Pirates lineup striking out 31.1% of the time over its last 6, and his 16.5 outs line sits above the 4.7 innings he averages but not by enough to pay at -104.
PHI @ LAA✓9:38 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
PHI @ LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Andrew Painter R
xERA3.25 (good)ERA4.15 (avg)K%22.5 (avg)Whiff%26.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%43.8 (below)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs97BB%8.5 (avg)
LAA vs RHP
L6
wRC+97 (avg)K%34.1 (poor)Whiff%28.1 (poor)HH%39.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+97 (avg)K%27.2 (below)Whiff%26.9 (below)HH%36.8 (avg)
Reid Detmers L
xERA2.20 (elite)ERA0.45 (elite)K%30.1 (elite)Whiff%33.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs90BB%6.9 (good)
PHI vs LHP
L6
wRC+94 (below)K%9.4 (elite)Whiff%11.2 (elite)HH%34.8 (below)
L12
wRC+106 (avg)K%13.0 (elite)Whiff%17.1 (elite)HH%33.7 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.02 (good)ERA 2.25 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.76 (elite)ERA 3.26 (good)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-123-1.5 (+130)O8.0 (-105)LAA+114+1.5 (-156)U8.0 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-110+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (+110)LAA-110-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (+105/+112)1.5 (-140/+110)LAA3.5 (-108/-110)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Painter5.5 (+110 / -126)16.5 (-125 / -101)Reid Detmers6.5 (+130 / -159)17.5 (-114 / -110)
Andrew Painter · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W7.010385011
W7.010385011Aug 16@ W5.09426355
W5.09426355Aug 10@ W5.19362322
W5.19362322Aug 5vs L4.06343111
L4.06343111Jul 31@ L6.08263322
L6.08263322Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21@ L6.08956100
L6.08956100Aug 15vs W8.092112000
W8.092112000Aug 10vs L6.08863411
L6.08863411Aug 5@ L4.08154133
L4.08154133Jul 28vs L5.08494122
L5.08494122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI—
home starts6.31.42elite8.73.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs W8.092112000
W8.092112000Aug 10vs L6.08863411
L6.08863411Jul 28vs L5.08494122
L5.08494122Trends · PHI
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 2-3 in Andrew Painter's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 6.6 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 3.8 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 4-1 to the over in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 2-1 to the over in Andrew Painter's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA have lost 4 straight.
- LAA are 1-4 in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-4 in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 1.4 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 1.0 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 1-4 to the over in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 0-3 to the over in Reid Detmers's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
90°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- PHI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- PHI — Andrew Painter: last start: 103 pitches over 7.0 IP
- PHI — Andrew Painter: 2026-08-16: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.41 ERA equivalent
- PHI — Andrew Painter: low-K outing 2026-08-16 (2 Ks vs avg 5.3 over his last 3)
- PHI — Andrew Painter: recent opponents high-K: STL 26%, STL 26%
- LAA — Reid Detmers: recent opponents low-K: TEX 16%, TEX 16%
Andrew Painter o5.5 Ks (+122)
The Angels are striking out at a 34.1% clip vs RHP over their last 6 with a 28.1 Whiff%, and their 27.2 K% over their last 12 says the swing-and-miss is real rather than a one-week blip. Painter carries a 22.5 K% and 26.0 Whiff% over his last 3 starts and just went 7 innings on 103 pitches with 8 strikeouts and no walks against St. Louis; his 16.5 outs line means the market expects him past five and a half innings again. Against a lineup missing a third of its swings, plus money on six strikeouts undersells both the rate and the length.
PHI @ LAA u8.0 (-105)
Detmers has a 2.20 xERA and 0.45 ERA over his last 3 starts while averaging 6.7 innings, and at home across 3 starts he sits at a 1.42 ERA over 6.3 innings a time; Philadelphia meets him with a 94 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6. On the other side Painter's 3.25 xERA over his last 3 faces a Los Angeles lineup at 97 wRC+ vs RHP over both its last 6 and last 12. Both bullpens are strong — Philadelphia at a 3.02 xERA and Los Angeles at 2.76 over the last 12 games — so there is no soft middle innings to inflate this, and the Angels have gone under in 8 of their last 10 at home. Eight runs is roughly a league-average posting for a game with two of the better arms on the slate and two lineups hitting below the league mean.
Reid Detmers u6.5 Ks (-159)
Philadelphia is striking out at a 9.4% clip vs LHP over its last 6 with an 11.2 Whiff%, down from an already-low 13.0% over its last 12 — the hardest lineup on the board to miss bats against. Reid Detmers's 7.3 strikeouts per start over his last 3 came against Texas twice at a 16% strikeout rate and Kansas City, and even his 30.1 K% over that window projects near five against a lineup putting this much in play over roughly 25 batters. The juice buys a number the Phillies' contact rate should keep well out of reach.
BAL @ ATH✓9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
BAL @ ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Brandon Young R
xERA4.44 (avg)ERA4.02 (avg)K%14.3 (below)Whiff%19.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.2 (avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs90BB%10.0 (avg)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+118 (above)K%27.3 (below)Whiff%29.6 (poor)HH%36.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+118 (above)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%25.8 (below)HH%35.8 (avg)
Jacob Lopez L
xERA2.61 (elite)ERA2.37 (elite)K%27.0 (good)Whiff%29.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%22.0 (elite)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs92BB%5.4 (good)
BAL vs LHP
L6
wRC+122 (above)K%27.4 (below)Whiff%24.3 (avg)HH%49.0 (elite)
L12
wRC+113 (avg)K%26.9 (below)Whiff%25.7 (below)HH%48.7 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.28 (elite)ERA 1.80 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-108-1.5 (+135)O9.5 (-103)ATH+101+1.5 (-157)U9.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-105+0.5 (-152)O5.5 (+108)ATH-112-0.5 (+116)U5.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL4.5 (-125/-102)2.5 (+110/-140)ATH4.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Young4.5 (+112 / -142)17.5 (+102 / +104)Jacob Lopez6.5 (+112 / -142)16.5 (+112 / -122)
Brandon Young · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W5.28436322
W5.28436322Aug 17@ L4.08238144
L4.08238144Aug 11@ W6.010446312
W6.010446312Aug 6vs L4.19846233
L4.19846233Jul 31vs W5.29455244
W5.29455244Jacob Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ W6.09193111
W6.09193111Aug 16vs W6.09365222
W6.09365222Aug 10vs L7.09355122
L7.09355122Aug 5@ L5.08794122
L5.08794122Jul 29vs L5.19787212
L5.19787212SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Young
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH3.018.00poor2.06.02.0(1)
at ATH—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs L3.07426266
L3.07426266Jacob Lopez
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL4.51.98elite5.03.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 8@ W5.19153222
W5.19153222Jun 8vs W4.09154201
W4.09154201home starts6.02.49elite6.35.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs W6.09365222
W6.09365222Aug 10vs L7.09355122
L7.09355122Jul 29vs L5.19787212
L5.19787212Trends · BAL
- BAL are 1-2 vs ATH this season (3 games).
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 4.2 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 7.2 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-2 to the over in Brandon Young's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 2-1 vs BAL this season (3 games).
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-4 in Jacob Lopez's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 3.8 runs/game in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 4.6 runs/game in Jacob Lopez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 to the over in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-2 to the over in Jacob Lopez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 5 mph SSW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- BAL bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g)
- BAL — Brandon Young: 2026-08-17: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.48 ERA equivalent
- BAL — Brandon Young: recent opponents low-K: MIN 15%, TBR 16%, TBR 16%
- ATH — Jacob Lopez: recent opponents low-K: TBR 12%, TEX 16%
Brandon Young u17.5 Outs (+104)
Brandon Young has averaged 5.2 IP per start over his last 3 — 6.0, 4.0 and 5.2 innings — so the posted number asks for a longer outing than he has produced in two of three, and his 10.0 BB% over that window is the kind of command that runs a pitch count up early. He faces an Athletics lineup at 118 wRC+ vs RHP over both its last 6 and last 12 games, and in his one meeting with them this month he was gone after 3.0 innings and 74 pitches. A coin-flip price on six full innings understates how often this outing ends in the sixth.
ARI @ SFG✓10:15 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
ARI @ SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kohl Drake L
xERA8.79 (poor)ERA6.94 (poor)K%14.3 (below)Whiff%17.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%19.1 (poor)IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs80BB%7.1 (avg)
SFG vs LHP
L6
wRC+110 (avg)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%21.6 (avg)HH%43.8 (above)
L12
wRC+84 (below)K%28.1 (poor)Whiff%25.8 (below)HH%39.6 (avg)
Blade Tidwell R
xERA2.97 (elite)ERA4.02 (avg)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%23.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.5 (avg)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs84BB%12.9 (below)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+68 (poor)K%15.6 (elite)Whiff%15.6 (elite)HH%35.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%17.2 (above)Whiff%17.7 (elite)HH%41.4 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 5.30 (poor)ERA 5.20 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 3.47 (good)ERA 3.31 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI-114-1.5 (+136)O8.0 (-110)SFG+107+1.5 (-162)U8.0 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-122-0.5 (+114)O4.5 (-114)SFG-102+0.5 (-148)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI4.5 (+114/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)SFG3.5 (-118/-105)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKohl Drake3.5 (-128 / +101)14.5 (-155 / +125)Blade Tidwell3.5 (-120 / +102)15.5 (+104 / -134)
Kohl Drake · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6vs L3.28216133
L3.28216133Aug 1@ W4.09465122
W4.09465122Jul 26@ L4.06415244
L4.06415244Jul 21vs W5.08554211
W5.08554211Blade Tidwell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ L5.29373200
L5.29373200Aug 16vs L4.16313566
L4.16313566Aug 10vs L5.29664111
L5.29664111Aug 4@ L5.010036122
L5.010036122Apr 28@ L2.0*4724122
L2.0*4724122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Blade Tidwell
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI—
home starts4.76.77poor3.53.53.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L4.16313566
L4.16313566Aug 10vs L5.29664111
L5.29664111Trends · ARI
- ARI are 8-2 vs SFG this season (10 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 2-2 in Kohl Drake's last 4 starts.
- ARI are 1-1 in Kohl Drake's last 2 away starts.
- ARI average 6.5 runs/game in Kohl Drake's last 4 starts.
- ARI average 9.5 runs/game in Kohl Drake's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 3-0 to the over in Kohl Drake's last 3 starts.
- ARI are 2-0 to the over in Kohl Drake's last 2 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 2-8 vs ARI this season (10 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 0-4 in Blade Tidwell's last 4 starts.
- SFG are 0-2 in Blade Tidwell's last 2 home starts.
- SFG average 4.0 runs/game in Blade Tidwell's last 4 starts.
- SFG average 5.0 runs/game in Blade Tidwell's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 3-1 to the over in Blade Tidwell's last 4 starts.
- SFG are 2-0 to the over in Blade Tidwell's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
65°F, Clear, Wind 13 mph WNW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- ARI — Kohl Drake: avg 3.9 IP/gs over his last 3
- ARI bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.30 over its last 12
- ARI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- ARI — Kohl Drake: 22 days since last start (2026-08-06) news ↗
- ARI — Kohl Drake: recent opponents high-K: WSN 33%, CLE 29%, SDP 25%
- SFG — Blade Tidwell: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-04-28, 2026-04-23
- SFG — Blade Tidwell: 2026-08-16: 6 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.87 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL West)
SFG Team Total o3.5 (-102)
Kohl Drake carries an 8.79 xERA and a 50.0 HH% allowed over his last 3 starts while averaging only 3.9 innings, and he has not pitched in 22 days; his three outings produced 4, 2 and 3 earned runs over 4.0, 4.0 and 3.2 innings. San Francisco meets him with a 93 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and a 43.3 HH% in that window, and once Drake is out they get an Arizona bullpen carrying a 5.00 xERA over the last 12 games for four or five innings. With the wind blowing out 16 mph, four runs against a starter this short and a relief corps this leaky is priced as a coin flip when it should be the likelier outcome.
Kohl Drake u14.5 Outs (+125)
Kohl Drake has averaged 3.9 IP per start over his last 3 and has not recorded a 13th out in any of them — 4.0, 4.0 and 3.2 innings, with pitch counts of 64, 94 and 82. He takes the mound tonight 22 days removed from his last start, which is not the profile of an arm being stretched to five full innings, and he carries an 8.79 xERA over that same three-start window against a San Francisco lineup at 110 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6. The market is pricing him to reach 15 outs 58% of the time when his own recent workload has not produced 12.
SFG Moneyline (+107)
Blade Tidwell carries a 2.97 xERA over his last 3 into a matchup with an Arizona lineup at 68 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 80 over its last 12 — poor in both windows. The other half is worse for the visitors: Kohl Drake's 8.79 xERA and 6.94 ERA over his last 3 against a San Francisco club at 110 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6, with Arizona's bullpen sitting on a 5.30 xERA over its last 12 to clean up after 3.9 innings of starter. San Francisco has the better starter, the better recent lineup and the better bullpen, and is still priced as the underdog.