AI Picks · 12 Bets · Jul 28
ARI ML (+100)
Pfaadt is HOT (recent ERA 1.78 vs xERA 3.13), while Chandler is STRUGGLING (recent ERA 5.92 vs elite xERA 2.71). ARI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 130) while PIT hits poorly (wRC+ 91) and has a below-average bullpen (xERA 4.90). PIT averages only 2.8 RS in Chandler's recent starts. ARI at even money (+100) is genuine value given the pitching and offensive edges. Rain risk (49%) is a concern but not disqualifying — monitor.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
DET ML (-142)
Melton is BLAZING HOT (recent ERA 0.52, xERA 3.18, 5-1 home record in recent starts), BAL's Kremer has an xERA 4.82, ERA 7.20, and an 8.65 ERA in prior starts at this very park. DET offense (wRC+ 117) is strong vs RHP while BAL is cold (wRC+ 79, averaging only 2.0 RS away in recent starts). BAL bullpen is elite (xERA 1.94) which limits full-game side value — but rain risk is the primary disqualifier flag here (81%). RAIN RISK 81% — this bet should be monitored and may not be playable if the game is delayed or shortened.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider DET F5 ML at -156 (same issue) or DET Team Total Over 4.5 at -122 as a cleaner expression of the offensive edge vs Kremer.
WSN Team Total o4.5 (+102)
WSN offense is elite (wRC+ 142 vs RHP, averaging 9.4 RS in recent starts), while Bieber is STRUGGLING badly (recent ERA 7.44, just gave up 7 ER in 4 IP last start). WSN has scored big in recent starts and Bieber has command issues (BB% 7.3%) layered on top of recent struggles. TOR bullpen (xERA 3.53) is decent but won't prevent WSN from scoring. Getting WSN team total over 4.5 at +102 is excellent value given how hot WSN's offense is against a reeling pitcher.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
Taj Bradley K o6.5 (Note: this is KCR @ MIN game — CLE@CIN: Chase Burns K o6.5 (+103)
Chase Burns K% 18.2% with avg 7.0 K/start in last 3 (including 10 K start). CLE K% 22.3% vs RHP is above average. Burns' last 3 starts averaged 7.0 Ks against lineups including PIT (K% ~27%) and NYY (K% ~28%). CLE at 22.3% K rate is comparable, and Burns' underlying stuff supports 6-7+ Ks. At +103 this is a slight overlay value.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
CHW ML (+115)
Cole is STRUGGLING (recent ERA 5.00, HH% 52%, xERA 3.41) and NYY has scored only 2.0 RS avg in his last 5 starts (1-4 record). CHW offense is hot (wRC+ 118 vs RHP, 5.2 RS avg at home in Kay's starts), CHW bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.69), and wind blowing out 15mph helps the offense. Kay has an xERA 4.97 with concerns (Barrel% 13%), but CHW closes out the game with an elite bullpen. Getting +115 on the home side with a hot offense, elite bullpen, and a struggling opponent starter is strong value.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
MIN ML (-162)
Taj Bradley is HOT (recent ERA 1.89, avg 9.0 K/start last 3), and has a dominant 0.94 ERA in 3 career starts vs KCR. Seth Lugo is STRUGGLING badly (recent ERA 7.02, xERA 4.48, 8.87 ERA career vs MIN, 12.00 ERA at this very park). KCR bullpen is bad (xERA 5.08). MIN bullpen is solid (xERA 3.54). However, -162 is over the -150 pricing threshold — flagged as line warning.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider MIN F5 ML at -166 (slightly worse) or MIN -1.5 at +132 for positive-odds exposure to this edge.
Taj Bradley o6.5 Ks (+100)
Bradley's recent avg K/start is 9.0 over last 3 (6K, 10K, 11K). KCR K% vs RHP is 21.1%, close to the league average — similar or slightly below the teams Bradley recently faced (LAA, CLE, HOU), so we don't need to significantly adjust down. Adjusted expectation of ~8–8.5 Ks is well above the 6.5 line (by 1.5–2 Ks). Bradley's K% is 21.8% with strong recent form and the line at +100 is clearly underpriced relative to his trajectory. Bradley is going 7 IP/gs average so he gets ample innings.
Found at 11:59 AM ET
CHC ML (-110)
Colin Rea has a dominant 1.03 ERA in 3 starts vs STL (5.7 IP/gs, 5.7 K/gs), and his recent ERA (3.58) is trending well. McGreevy has a 5.00 ERA in 3 career starts vs CHC despite a good recent ERA — his HH% 52%, Barrel% 16% remain red flags. STL offense is poor (wRC+ 69, averaging only 3.2 RS at home). CHC offense (wRC+ 112) and bullpen (xERA 3.72) are both solid. CHC ML at -110 is good value given the historical dominance of Rea vs this specific opponent.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
BOS -1.5 (+110)
Jake Bennett is elite and HOT (recent ERA 1.33, xERA 3.53, averaging 6.2 IP/gs), BOS bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.00, ERA 1.82). Gage Jump is STRUGGLING badly (recent ERA 7.98, xERA 4.23, HH% 58%, BB% 12%, ERA 6.43 at home 11.25). ATH bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.92, ERA 9.17). BOS is 10-0 away L10. Getting -1.5 at +110 is exceptional value given this multi-layered edge — elite starter + great pen vs. a struggling starter with an historically bad pen.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
BOS Team Total o5.5 (+110)
Jump's xERA 4.23 with ERA 6.43 at home (11.25 home ERA), HH% 58%, BB% 12%, and a catastrophic bullpen (xERA 5.92) means BOS has a strong run-scoring edge regardless of their own pitcher's outcome. BOS wRC+ vs LHP is only 82 but Jump's command and hard contact metrics override that concern. Getting BOS team total over 5.5 at +110 is excellent value.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
MIL ML (-136)
Henderson is solid (recent ERA 2.38, xERA 2.56 elite), Roupp is STRUGGLING (recent ERA 5.00, 13.75 ERA in 2 career starts vs MIL). MIL offense is hot (wRC+ 126 vs RHP, 5-0 record in Henderson's L5 starts). Wind blowing out 18mph further favors the offense. MIL -1.5 at +126 is the better value play. -136 ML is slightly over preferred threshold.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider MIL -1.5 at +126 for a better price on this edge.
LAD F5 ML (-180)
Justin Wrobleski is elite (xERA 2.12, recent ERA 2.25, 0.90 ERA in 3 home starts, averaging 7.7 IP/gs), matching up against a SEA team that is 1-4 in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts with only 2.0 RS avg. LAD bullpen xERA 5.02 disqualifies full-game ML but Wrobleski goes deep (7.7 IP/gs) making F5 the right vehicle. However -180 exceeds our -150 threshold — flagging with line warning.
Found at 11:59 AM ET
Line Warning: LAD F5 -0.5 spread at -135 or LAD team total Over 2.5 (F5) at -140 are better-priced expressions of the same Wrobleski dominance edge.
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
CLE @ 
CIN✓1:40 PM · Great American Ball Park
CLE @ CIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Slade Cecconi R
xERA5.43 (poor)K%17.6 (avg)HH%54.9 (poor)Barrel%11.8 (below avg)ERA7.43IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs85BB%7.3
CIN vs RHP
wRC+106 (avg)K%22.2 (avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
Chase Burns R
xERA3.69 (good)K%18.2 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)Barrel%11.4 (below avg)ERA2.81IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs95BB%15.2
CLE vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%22.3 (avg)HH%34.2 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+138+1.5 (-140)O9.0 (-112)CIN-162-1.5 (+120)U9.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE+146+0.5 (+100)O4.5 (-140)CIN-184-0.5 (-130)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCLEO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)CINO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (+110)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USlade Cecconi4.5 (-113 / -110)15.5 (+108 / -130)Chase Burns6.5 (+102 / -123)16.5 (-118 / -109)
Slade Cecconi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs 
L4.28857337
L4.28857337Jul 8@ L3.26746133
L3.26746133Jul 2vs 
W5.010039155
W5.010039155Jun 27vs 
W6.08743200
W6.08743200Jun 21@ 
L6.07916222
L6.07916222Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@ W5.09163200
W5.09163200Jul 8vs 
W5.010623633
W5.010623633Jul 2@ 
W6.08944222
W6.08944222Jun 27@ 
W6.093109055
W6.093109055Jun 21@ 
W5.09675311
W5.09675311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Slade Cecconi
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.03.608.04.50.5(2)
at CIN5.05.408.05.00.0(1)
Chase Burns
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE—
home starts5.32.816.03.73.3(3)
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-2 vs CIN this season (4 games).
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE have lost 6 straight.
- CLE are 2-3 in Slade Cecconi's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 0-5 in Slade Cecconi's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 4.4 runs/game in Slade Cecconi's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 1.6 runs/game in Slade Cecconi's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-2 vs CLE this season (4 games).
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 5-0 in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 4-1 in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 7.0 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 8.6 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 2.51 (elite)ERA 3.862d stress Fresh (0.3 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 3.13 (good)ERA 4.652d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather
86°F, Wind 11 mph
Flags · 5
- CLE — Slade Cecconi: HH% 55% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CIN — Chase Burns: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- CLE bullpen fresh (0.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WEATHER: rain chance 30% — monitor for delays
Taj Bradley K o6.5 (Note: this is KCR @ MIN game — CLE@CIN: Chase Burns K o6.5 (+103)
Chase Burns K% 18.2% with avg 7.0 K/start in last 3 (including 10 K start). CLE K% 22.3% vs RHP is above average. Burns' last 3 starts averaged 7.0 Ks against lineups including PIT (K% ~27%) and NYY (K% ~28%). CLE at 22.3% K rate is comparable, and Burns' underlying stuff supports 6-7+ Ks. At +103 this is a slight overlay value.
ARI @ PIT✓6:40 PM · PNC ParkRainy
ARI @ PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Brandon Pfaadt R
xERA3.13 (good)K%8.5 (poor)HH%33.9 (good)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA3.24IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs84BB%2.8
PIT vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%31.4 (poor)HH%41.4 (above avg)
Bubba Chandler R
xERA2.71 (elite)K%17.5 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)Barrel%2.3 (elite)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs89BB%12.7
ARI vs RHP
wRC+130 (elite)K%18.0 (above avg)HH%41.5 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI-102-1.5 (+159)O9.0 (-118)PIT-115+1.5 (-185)U9.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-108+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-144)PIT-115-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO4.5 (-106)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)PITO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Pfaadt3.5 (-146 / +120)15.5 (-118 / -112)Bubba Chandler3.5 (-153 / +124)15.5 (+126 / -165)
Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23@ 
W6.08717222
W6.08717222Jul 18vs W5.18736022
W5.18736022Jul 11@ 
W5.17726022
W5.17726022Jul 6@ 
W5.07264000
W5.07264000Jun 30vs 
W5.16623111
W5.16623111Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ L6.18452100
L6.18452100Jul 11vs W4.29765322
W4.29765322Jul 5@ 
W4.08606444
W4.08606444Jun 30@ L6.19767255
L6.19767255Jun 25vs W5.17545311
W5.17545311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bubba Chandler
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.03.604.02.06.0(1)
home starts4.83.105.34.32.3(3)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 1-3 vs PIT this season (4 games).
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 5-0 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 8.0 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 6.0 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 3-1 vs ARI this season (4 games).
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-3 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 2.8 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 3.0 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.15 (avg)ERA 4.242d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 4.39 (avg)ERA 4.302d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
80°F, Wind 13 mph
· Rain possible (63%)
Flags · 6
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ARI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-03 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent opponents low-K: STL 19%, STL 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: 2026-07-05: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: rain risk 63% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
ARI ML (+100)
Pfaadt is HOT (recent ERA 1.78 vs xERA 3.13), while Chandler is STRUGGLING (recent ERA 5.92 vs elite xERA 2.71). ARI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 130) while PIT hits poorly (wRC+ 91) and has a below-average bullpen (xERA 4.90). PIT averages only 2.8 RS in Chandler's recent starts. ARI at even money (+100) is genuine value given the pitching and offensive edges. Rain risk (49%) is a concern but not disqualifying — monitor.
BAL @ 
DET✓6:40 PM · Comerica ParkRainy
BAL @ DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Dean Kremer R
xERA4.82 (below avg)K%21.5 (avg)HH%34.8 (good)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA7.20IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs87BB%7.7
DET vs RHP
wRC+117 (above avg)K%20.7 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)
Troy Melton R
xERA3.18 (good)K%33.3 (elite)HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%8.1 (avg)ERA1.69IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs92BB%13.0
BAL vs RHP
wRC+79 (poor)K%26.2 (below avg)HH%40.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+122+1.5 (-165)O9.5 (+100)DET-144-1.5 (+140)U9.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL+124+0.5 (-115)O5.5 (+112)DET-154-0.5 (-114)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBALO4.5 (+105)U4.5 (-132)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)DETO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDean Kremer4.5 (-156 / +124)15.5 (-101 / -130)Troy Melton5.5 (-121 / +100)17.5 (-102 / -120)
Dean Kremer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ 
L6.08758166
L6.08758166Jul 17@ W4.08354322
W4.08354322Jul 8vs 
L5.09246144
L5.09246144Jul 1vs W6.07944111
W6.07944111Apr 18@ L6.09572233
L6.09572233Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs 
W5.09055422
W5.09055422Jul 17@ 
W5.29494411
W5.29494411Jul 8vs 
W5.19194101
W5.19194101Jul 1@ W6.18472100
W6.18472100Jun 25vs L6.08862011
L6.08862011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dean Kremer
IPERAKHBB
vs DET5.28.653.04.04.0(1)
at DET5.28.653.04.04.0(1)
Troy Melton
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL5.21.733.02.03.0(1)
home starts5.41.686.73.71.7(3)
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 3-2 vs DET this season (5 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 2-3 in Dean Kremer's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-3 in Dean Kremer's last 4 away starts.
- BAL average 3.8 runs/game in Dean Kremer's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 2.0 runs/game in Dean Kremer's last 4 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-3 vs BAL this season (5 games).
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 4-1 in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 4-1 in Troy Melton's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 3.8 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET average 5.0 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.03 (elite)ERA 1.082d stress Stressed (6.7 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.77 (avg)ERA 3.602d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
83°F, Wind 13 mph
· Rain possible (81%)
Flags · 4
- DET — Troy Melton: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- BAL bullpen stressed (6.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- DET bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WEATHER: rain risk 81% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
DET ML (-142)
Melton is BLAZING HOT (recent ERA 0.52, xERA 3.18, 5-1 home record in recent starts), BAL's Kremer has an xERA 4.82, ERA 7.20, and an 8.65 ERA in prior starts at this very park. DET offense (wRC+ 117) is strong vs RHP while BAL is cold (wRC+ 79, averaging only 2.0 RS away in recent starts). BAL bullpen is elite (xERA 1.94) which limits full-game side value — but rain risk is the primary disqualifier flag here (81%). RAIN RISK 81% — this bet should be monitored and may not be playable if the game is delayed or shortened.
PHI @ 
MIA6:40 PM · loanDepot park
PHI @ MIAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Aaron Nola R
xERA4.01 (avg)K%25.7 (good)HH%51.1 (poor)Barrel%17.8 (poor)ERA5.51IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs89BB%10.0
MIA vs RHP
wRC+77 (poor)K%25.9 (below avg)HH%39.9 (avg)
Sandy Alcantara R
xERA3.20 (good)K%22.2 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%8.6 (avg)ERA4.05IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs104BB%6.2
PHI vs RHP
wRC+67 (poor)K%29.6 (poor)HH%45.2 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-105-1.5 (+164)O8.5 (+100)MIA-110+1.5 (-190)U8.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI+102+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-114)MIA-128-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPHIO3.5 (-142)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)MIAO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+110)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAaron Nola5.5 (+126 / -161)16.5 (-111 / -108)Sandy Alcantara5.5 (+120 / -150)18.5 (+150 / +123)
Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs L5.18547155
L5.18547155Jul 16vs 
L6.09766433
L6.09766433Jul 10@ L5.08483222
L5.08483222Jul 5@ L7.09877033
L7.09877033Jun 29vs L4.18658278
L4.18658278Sandy Alcantara · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ L7.010839155
L7.010839155Jul 17@ L6.010473411
L6.010473411Jul 10vs L7.09985033
L7.09985033Jul 4@ W8.010086111
W8.010086111Jun 29@ 
W5.29637555
W5.29637555SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Aaron Nola
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA6.00.005.05.00.0(1)
at MIA6.00.005.05.00.0(1)
Sandy Alcantara
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.74.245.06.71.0(3)
home starts6.72.236.35.01.3(3)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 5-3 vs MIA this season (8 games).
- PHI are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 0-5 in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 3.4 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 4.4 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 3-5 vs PHI this season (8 games).
- MIA are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-2 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 4.4 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 4.0 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.01 (good)ERA 3.502d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 5.08 (below avg)ERA 5.982d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Weather
89°F, Wind 10 mph
Flags · 7
- PHI — Aaron Nola: HH% 51% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PHI — Aaron Nola: Barrel% 18% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- MIA bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.08 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- MIA bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PHI — Aaron Nola: 2026-07-22: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- PHI — Aaron Nola: recent opponents high-K: NYM 26%, LAD 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- MIA — Sandy Alcantara: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
AI Analysis
Two struggling offenses (PHI wRC+ 67, MIA wRC+ 77), Nola is struggling (recent ERA 6.71, Barrel% 18%), MIA bullpen xERA 5.08 disqualifies MIA side bets, and Nola's history vs MIA (0.00 ERA) creates too much uncertainty. No clear playable angle at reasonable odds.
TEX @ 
TBR6:40 PM · Tropicana Field
TEX @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Cal Quantrill R
xERA4.41 (avg)K%8.3 (poor)HH%30.0 (elite)Barrel%6.0 (good)ERA6.23IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs73BB%8.3
TBR vs RHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%21.4 (avg)HH%31.0 (below avg)
Griffin Jax R
xERA4.13 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA5.06IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs79BB%7.3
TEX vs RHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%23.2 (avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+150+1.5 (-140)O8.0 (-110)TBR-178-1.5 (+119)U8.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+154+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-108)TBR-188-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO3.5 (+100)U3.5 (-125)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)TBRO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCal Quantrill2.5 (-155 / +124)—Griffin Jax5.5 (+102 / -121)15.5 (+145 / -168)
Cal Quantrill · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs L3.0*5512322
L3.0*5512322Jul 17@ 
L4.086311166
L4.086311166Jul 10vs W6.07915111
W6.07915111Jul 4vs L5.06623123
L5.06623123Jun 27@ 
W4.05552100
W4.05552100Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ W6.08353111
W6.08353111Jul 17@ L5.08568177
L5.08568177Jul 11vs W5.06934311
W5.06934311Jul 6vs L5.081101233
L5.081101233Jun 30@ W6.07155033
W6.07155033SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cal Quantrill
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.01.806.02.02.0(1)
at TBR—
Griffin Jax
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX—
home starts5.02.406.73.32.3(3)
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-2 in Cal Quantrill's last 3 away starts.
- TEX average 3.8 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.0 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-2 in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 5.2 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 4.36 (avg)ERA 6.802d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 3.08 (good)ERA 2.422d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather
87°F, Wind 10 mph
Flags · 8
- TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: 11 days since last start (2026-07-17) — may not be fully stretched out
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: 2026-07-17: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TBR — Griffin Jax: 2026-07-17: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TBR — Griffin Jax: recent opponents low-K: SEA 18%, TOR 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: rain chance 35% — monitor for delays
AI Analysis
Both starters have inflated ERA figures skewed by single bad starts (flags note this) and both are returning to form. Quantrill has bullpen appearances recently (11 days since last start), TBR bullpen is fresh signaling early hook. Too many confounding factors to isolate an edge.
TOR @ WSN✓6:45 PM · Nationals ParkRainy
TOR @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Shane Bieber R
xERA3.50 (good)K%19.1 (avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%6.0 (good)ERA1.53IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs88BB%7.3
WSN vs RHP
wRC+142 (elite)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%38.3 (avg)
Cade Cavalli R
xERA2.58 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)HH%51.2 (poor)Barrel%2.4 (elite)ERA2.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs90BB%4.5
TOR vs RHP
wRC+88 (below avg)K%16.6 (above avg)HH%33.8 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+120+1.5 (-175)O9.0 (+100)WSN-140-1.5 (+152)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR+130+0.5 (-110)O4.5 (-135)WSN-160-0.5 (-118)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTORO3.5 (-142)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)WSNO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UShane Bieber4.5 (+135 / -162)Cade Cavalli4.5 (+120 / -144)
Shane Bieber · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs W7.08633011
W7.08633011Jul 18vs W6.08063200
W6.08063200Jul 10@ W4.29746322
W4.29746322Jul 4@ L4.08936377
L4.08936377Jun 28vs L5.19245422
L5.19245422Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ W6.09084200
W6.09084200Jul 17@ W6.09594022
W6.09594022Jul 12vs L6.08554122
L6.08554122Jul 5vs L2.16336234
L2.16336234Jun 30@ W7.0100131001
W7.0100131001SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cade Cavalli
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR—
home starts4.74.475.05.01.3(3)
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 1-1 in Shane Bieber's last 2 away starts.
- TOR average 2.2 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 2.5 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 2 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 3-2 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-4 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 9.4 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 4.8 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 4.742d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 4.67 (below avg)ERA 4.422d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
89°F, Wind 14 mph
· Rain possible (65%)
Flags · 4
- WSN — Cade Cavalli: HH% 51% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TOR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- WSN bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WEATHER: rain risk 65% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
WSN Team Total o4.5 (+102)
WSN offense is elite (wRC+ 142 vs RHP, averaging 9.4 RS in recent starts), while Bieber is STRUGGLING badly (recent ERA 7.44, just gave up 7 ER in 4 IP last start). WSN has scored big in recent starts and Bieber has command issues (BB% 7.3%) layered on top of recent struggles. TOR bullpen (xERA 3.53) is decent but won't prevent WSN from scoring. Getting WSN team total over 4.5 at +102 is excellent value given how hot WSN's offense is against a reeling pitcher.
ATL @ NYM7:10 PM · Citi Field
ATL @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Chris Sale L
xERA1.64 (elite)K%37.3 (elite)HH%38.2 (avg)Barrel%5.9 (good)ERA1.69IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs77BB%3.4
NYM vs LHP
wRC+56 (poor)K%29.7 (poor)HH%37.5 (avg)
Christian Scott R
xERA1.86 (elite)K%31.6 (elite)HH%31.4 (good)Barrel%2.9 (elite)ERA1.88IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs86BB%7.0
ATL vs RHP
wRC+145 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-162-1.5 (+112)O7.5 (+100)NYM+136+1.5 (-131)U7.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-174-0.5 (-114)O3.5 (-138)NYM+138+0.5 (-114)U3.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATLO4.5 (+122)U4.5 (-140)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)NYMO2.5 (-154)U2.5 (+122)O1.5 (+100)U1.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UChris Sale7.5 (+116 / -141)Christian Scott5.5 (+118 / -142)
Chris Sale · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs W6.098115133
W6.098115133Jul 17vs W7.08962000
W7.08962000Jul 10@ L3.04352100
L3.04352100Jul 4vs W5.09837233
W5.09837233Jun 28@ L6.094108112
L6.094108112Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ L3.28964333
L3.28964333Jul 16@ W5.27973000
W5.27973000Jul 8vs W5.09053100
W5.09053100Jul 3@ L4.08272433
L4.08272433Jun 27vs W4.18263222
W4.18263222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Chris Sale
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM6.62.055.06.01.5(2)
at NYM—
Christian Scott
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL4.06.757.02.04.0(1)
home starts4.44.065.74.31.3(3)
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 3-5 vs NYM this season (8 games).
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 3-2 in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-3 in Chris Sale's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 7.6 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.6 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 5-3 vs ATL this season (8 games).
- NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 3-2 in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 5-0 in Christian Scott's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 4.4 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 5.2 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 4.72 (below avg)ERA 6.242d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 3.26 (good)ERA 2.632d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Flags · 3
- ATL bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM — Christian Scott: 2026-07-22: 3 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
69% rain risk with 16 mph wind out is disqualifying — skip despite the interesting pitching matchup and ATL's elite offense.
CLE @ CIN✓7:10 PM · Great American Ball Park
CLE @ CIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Gavin Williams R
xERA1.79 (elite)K%44.6 (elite)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%7.7 (good)ERA3.15IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs95BB%1.4
CIN vs RHP
wRC+106 (avg)K%22.2 (avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
Jose Franco R
xERA3.78 (avg)K%8.0 (poor)HH%29.4 (elite)Barrel%11.8 (below avg)ERA5.40IP/gs5.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs33BB%24.0
CLE vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%22.3 (avg)HH%34.2 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-130-1.5 (+122)O9.0 (-110)CIN+110+1.5 (-143)U9.0 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-135-0.5 (+100)O4.5 (-128)CIN+110+0.5 (-130)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCLEO4.5 (-115)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)CINO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UGavin Williams7.5 (-120 / -106)Jose Franco—
Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs L7.097112000
L7.097112000Jul 18vs L6.084117055
L6.084117055Jul 9@ W7.0103113122
W7.0103113122Jul 3vs W4.27965233
W4.27965233Jun 28vs W5.010366323
W5.010366323Jose Franco · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 23vs L2.0*5413333
L2.0*5413333May 7@ L2.0*2311100
L2.0*2311100May 5@ L1.0*2200200
L1.0*2200200May 2@ L1.0*1721000
L1.0*1721000Apr 29vs L3.0*4134133
L3.0*4134133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN6.03.007.08.00.0(1)
at CIN—
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-2 vs CIN this season (4 games).
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE have lost 6 straight.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Gavin Williams's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 2.2 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 4.0 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-2 vs CLE this season (4 games).
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 2.51 (elite)ERA 3.862d stress Fresh (0.3 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 3.13 (good)ERA 4.652d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather
86°F, Wind 11 mph
Flags · 8
- CLE — Gavin Williams: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CIN — Jose Franco: small sample (5.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- CIN — Jose Franco: BB% 24% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- CLE bullpen fresh (0.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-07-18: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CIN — Jose Franco: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-23, 2026-05-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WEATHER: rain chance 30% — monitor for delays
Taj Bradley K o6.5 (Note: this is KCR @ MIN game — CLE@CIN: Chase Burns K o6.5 (+103)
Chase Burns K% 18.2% with avg 7.0 K/start in last 3 (including 10 K start). CLE K% 22.3% vs RHP is above average. Burns' last 3 starts averaged 7.0 Ks against lineups including PIT (K% ~27%) and NYY (K% ~28%). CLE at 22.3% K rate is comparable, and Burns' underlying stuff supports 6-7+ Ks. At +103 this is a slight overlay value.
NYY @ CHW✓7:40 PM · Rate FieldWindy
NYY @ CHW✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Gerrit Cole R
xERA3.41 (good)K%33.3 (elite)HH%52.1 (poor)Barrel%10.4 (avg)ERA3.72IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs98BB%2.7
CHW vs RHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%22.8 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)
Anthony Kay L
xERA4.97 (below avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA3.77IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs85BB%11.1
NYY vs LHP
wRC+79 (poor)K%28.2 (poor)HH%36.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-126-1.5 (+130)O8.0 (-103)CHW+110+1.5 (-155)U8.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-142-0.5 (+102)O4.5 (+108)CHW+114+0.5 (-132)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYYO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-135)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)CHWO3.5 (-111)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGerrit Cole6.5 (+108 / -134)17.5 (-136 / +104)Anthony Kay4.5 (-128 / +108)15.5 (+130 / -163)
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs L7.093114033
L7.093114033Jul 17vs L6.010384122
L6.010384122Jul 8@ L6.19767133
L6.19767133Jul 3vs W5.08875022
W5.08875022Jun 27@ L5.18957144
L5.18957144Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ W5.07945222
W5.07945222Jul 17@ W4.08352322
W4.08352322Jul 9vs L5.19244222
L5.19244222Jul 3@ L4.04821211
L4.04821211Jun 28vs L3.27327135
L3.27327135SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gerrit Cole
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW6.03.006.03.02.0(1)
at CHW—
Anthony Kay
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY4.09.002.06.01.0(1)
home starts4.83.154.74.71.7(3)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 3-1 vs CHW this season (4 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 1-4 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 2.0 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 2.8 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 1-3 vs NYY this season (4 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 3-2 in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 4.8 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 5.2 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 4.21 (avg)ERA 3.242d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 2.74 (elite)ERA 3.442d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Windy
74°F, Wind 16 mph
Flags · 7
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHW — Anthony Kay: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- NYY bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: recent opponents high-K: LAD 25%, PIT 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- CHW — Anthony Kay: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- WEATHER: wind: Out 16 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
CHW ML (+115)
Cole is STRUGGLING (recent ERA 5.00, HH% 52%, xERA 3.41) and NYY has scored only 2.0 RS avg in his last 5 starts (1-4 record). CHW offense is hot (wRC+ 118 vs RHP, 5.2 RS avg at home in Kay's starts), CHW bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.69), and wind blowing out 15mph helps the offense. Kay has an xERA 4.97 with concerns (Barrel% 13%), but CHW closes out the game with an elite bullpen. Getting +115 on the home side with a hot offense, elite bullpen, and a struggling opponent starter is strong value.
KCR @ MIN✓7:40 PM · Target FieldHot
KCR @ MIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Seth Lugo R
xERA4.48 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%55.6 (poor)Barrel%4.4 (elite)ERA3.18IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs91BB%8.8
MIN vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%21.3 (avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
Taj Bradley R
xERA4.13 (avg)K%21.8 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)Barrel%9.4 (avg)ERA3.79IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs101BB%10.3
KCR vs RHP
wRC+89 (below avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%41.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+145+1.5 (-143)O9.0 (-115)MIN-168-1.5 (+125)U9.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+140+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-128)MIN-164-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+112)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)MINO4.5 (-130)U4.5 (+105)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USeth Lugo4.5 (+122 / +128)17.5 (-106 / -118)Taj Bradley6.5 (+100 / -113)18.5 (+132 / +132)
Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs W7.09453233
W7.09453233Jul 17vs W6.09034212
W6.09034212Jul 12@ L4.08964222
L4.08964222Jul 7@ W4.19449269
W4.19449269Jul 1vs L6.08579033
L6.08579033Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23@ W7.010952311
W7.010952311Jul 18@ L5.09467355
L5.09467355Jul 12vs W7.09966222
W7.09966222Jul 7vs W7.0101103011
W7.0101103011Jul 1@ W5.097114311
W5.097114311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Seth Lugo
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN4.78.873.76.72.0(3)
at MIN4.512.002.57.51.5(2)
Taj Bradley
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR6.40.943.04.01.7(3)
home starts7.02.147.74.01.7(3)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 5-2 vs MIN this season (7 games).
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 3-2 in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-3 in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 6.0 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 6.8 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 2-5 vs KCR this season (7 games).
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 4-1 in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 4-1 in Taj Bradley's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 4.0 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 4.2 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 5.08 (below avg)ERA 5.362d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 3.592d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Wind 7 mph
Flags · 5
- KCR — Seth Lugo: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.08 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- KCR bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIN — Taj Bradley: last start: 109 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- MIN — Taj Bradley: 2026-07-18: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIN ML (-162)
Taj Bradley is HOT (recent ERA 1.89, avg 9.0 K/start last 3), and has a dominant 0.94 ERA in 3 career starts vs KCR. Seth Lugo is STRUGGLING badly (recent ERA 7.02, xERA 4.48, 8.87 ERA career vs MIN, 12.00 ERA at this very park). KCR bullpen is bad (xERA 5.08). MIN bullpen is solid (xERA 3.54). However, -162 is over the -150 pricing threshold — flagged as line warning.
Taj Bradley o6.5 Ks (+100)
Bradley's recent avg K/start is 9.0 over last 3 (6K, 10K, 11K). KCR K% vs RHP is 21.1%, close to the league average — similar or slightly below the teams Bradley recently faced (LAA, CLE, HOU), so we don't need to significantly adjust down. Adjusted expectation of ~8–8.5 Ks is well above the 6.5 line (by 1.5–2 Ks). Bradley's K% is 21.8% with strong recent form and the line at +100 is clearly underpriced relative to his trajectory. Bradley is going 7 IP/gs average so he gets ample innings.
CHC @ STL✓7:45 PM · Busch StadiumHot
CHC @ STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Colin Rea R
xERA5.10 (below avg)K%19.4 (avg)HH%28.0 (elite)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA5.51IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs89BB%6.0
STL vs RHP
wRC+69 (poor)K%18.9 (above avg)HH%41.2 (above avg)
Michael McGreevy R
xERA4.09 (avg)K%18.2 (avg)HH%51.7 (poor)Barrel%15.5 (poor)ERA2.84IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs93BB%6.5
CHC vs RHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%27.8 (below avg)HH%34.8 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-112-1.5 (+146)O9.0 (+100)STL-104+1.5 (-170)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-110+0.5 (-156)O4.5 (-135)STL-112-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHCO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)STLO4.5 (+120)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UColin Rea3.5 (+105 / -118)15.5 (-128 / -101)Michael McGreevy——
Colin Rea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs L5.08656144
L5.08656144Jul 17vs L6.09165134
L6.09165134Jul 8@ W5.19127233
W5.19127233Jul 1vs W5.08156322
W5.08156322Jun 26@ L5.08945311
L5.08945311Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs L6.19537344
L6.19537344Jul 17@ W6.19456112
W6.19456112Jul 8vs W6.19065111
W6.19065111Jul 1@ L6.08733122
L6.08733122Jun 26vs L6.09445100
L6.09445100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Colin Rea
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.81.035.72.31.7(3)
at STL6.01.506.03.02.0(1)
Michael McGreevy
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.85.002.36.31.3(3)
home starts6.12.474.35.71.7(3)
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 3-4 vs STL this season (7 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 2-3 in Colin Rea's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-3 in Colin Rea's last 5 away starts.
- CHC average 7.4 runs/game in Colin Rea's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 5.8 runs/game in Colin Rea's last 5 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 4-3 vs CHC this season (7 games).
- STL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 2-3 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 3.4 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.2 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 2.482d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
STL
xERA 4.31 (avg)ERA 5.452d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
96°F, Wind 11 mph
Flags · 5
- STL — Michael McGreevy: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- STL — Michael McGreevy: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CHC bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL — Michael McGreevy: recent opponents low-K: ARI 18%, ARI 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
CHC ML (-110)
Colin Rea has a dominant 1.03 ERA in 3 starts vs STL (5.7 IP/gs, 5.7 K/gs), and his recent ERA (3.58) is trending well. McGreevy has a 5.00 ERA in 3 career starts vs CHC despite a good recent ERA — his HH% 52%, Barrel% 16% remain red flags. STL offense is poor (wRC+ 69, averaging only 3.2 RS at home). CHC offense (wRC+ 112) and bullpen (xERA 3.72) are both solid. CHC ML at -110 is good value given the historical dominance of Rea vs this specific opponent.
HOU @ LAA9:38 PM · Angel Stadium
HOU @ LAAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Peter Lambert R
xERA2.78 (elite)K%27.0 (good)HH%34.8 (good)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA2.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs100BB%8.1
LAA vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%36.9 (avg)
Reid Detmers L
xERA3.78 (avg)K%31.1 (elite)HH%43.6 (below avg)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA3.52IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs84BB%4.9
HOU vs LHP
wRC+100 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU-106-1.5 (+153)O8.5 (-105)LAA-108+1.5 (-182)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU-106+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-102)LAA-115-0.5 (+118)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UHOUO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-140)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)LAAO3.5 (-142)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPeter Lambert5.5 (+108 / -128)17.5 (-138 / +112)Reid Detmers6.5 (+116 / -136)17.5 (-132 / +105)
Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs W6.08936222
W6.08936222Jul 17vs L6.0104103311
L6.0104103311Jul 11@ W6.010773111
W6.010773111Jul 5vs W5.29063100
W5.29063100Jun 29vs L5.210045344
L5.210045344Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs L5.18562211
L5.18562211Jul 17vs L6.08674000
L6.08674000Jul 9@ L4.08267155
L4.08267155Jul 3vs L5.010457355
L5.010457355Jun 27vs W5.29984322
W5.29984322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.12.956.05.00.0(1)
at LAA6.12.956.05.00.0(1)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.63.219.03.50.0(2)
home starts5.43.356.04.31.7(3)
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 4-4 vs LAA this season (8 games).
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 away starts.
- HOU average 4.4 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 6.2 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 4-4 vs HOU this season (8 games).
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 1-4 in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 2-3 in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 2.8 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 2.2 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.63 (good)ERA 3.752d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 3.32 (good)ERA 2.682d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather
86°F, Wind 9 mph
Flags · 5
- LAA — Reid Detmers: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- HOU — Peter Lambert: recent opponents high-K: BAL 26%, MIA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- LAA — Reid Detmers: 2026-07-09: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAA — Reid Detmers: recent opponents high-K: DET 27%, STL 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Detmers is struggling (recent ERA 7.61) but the matchup is close — Lambert has high pitch counts and recent opponents were high-K which inflates his K numbers; LAA's home run average is only 2.8 RS. Near pick'em odds at -106/-108 ML with no compelling directional edge.
BOS @ ATH✓9:40 PM · Sutter Health Park
BOS @ ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jake Bennett L
xERA3.53 (good)K%15.3 (below avg)HH%39.7 (avg)Barrel%3.5 (elite)ERA1.45IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs76BB%2.8
ATH vs LHP
wRC+85 (below avg)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%37.6 (avg)
Gage Jump L
xERA4.23 (avg)K%31.2 (elite)HH%58.3 (poor)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA6.43IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs85BB%12.5
BOS vs LHP
wRC+82 (below avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%42.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-146-1.5 (+108)O10.0 (-104)ATH+125+1.5 (-125)U10.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-140-0.5 (-106)O5.5 (-102)ATH+114+0.5 (-122)U5.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBOSO5.5 (+100)U5.5 (-125)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)ATHO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Bennett3.5 (-150 / +124)16.5 (-121 / -108)Gage Jump5.5 (+108 / -134)15.5 (+110 / +120)
Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs W5.28349033
W5.28349033Jul 17vs W6.06531100
W6.06531100Jul 8@ W7.08144100
W7.08144100Jul 3@ W7.29265022
W7.29265022Jun 27vs W6.18733211
W6.18733211Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ L4.28358466
L4.28358466Jul 17vs L3.28784234
L3.28784234Jul 11@ L5.28675211
L5.28675211Jul 5vs L3.08518356
L3.08518356Jun 29vs L4.291511055
L4.291511055SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS—
home starts3.511.254.77.71.7(3)
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 10-0 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 4-1 in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-2 in Jake Bennett's last 4 away starts.
- BOS average 5.2 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 4.2 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 4 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 0-5 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-3 in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 4.2 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 5.4 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 2.81 (elite)ERA 1.742d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 5.63 (poor)ERA 7.742d stress Stressed (6.7 IP/1g)
Flags · 6
- ATH — Gage Jump: HH% 58% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ATH — Gage Jump: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.63 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- BOS bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATH bullpen stressed (6.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS — Jake Bennett: recent opponents high-K: CHW 26%, BAL 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
BOS -1.5 (+110)
Jake Bennett is elite and HOT (recent ERA 1.33, xERA 3.53, averaging 6.2 IP/gs), BOS bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.00, ERA 1.82). Gage Jump is STRUGGLING badly (recent ERA 7.98, xERA 4.23, HH% 58%, BB% 12%, ERA 6.43 at home 11.25). ATH bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.92, ERA 9.17). BOS is 10-0 away L10. Getting -1.5 at +110 is exceptional value given this multi-layered edge — elite starter + great pen vs. a struggling starter with an historically bad pen.
BOS Team Total o5.5 (+110)
Jump's xERA 4.23 with ERA 6.43 at home (11.25 home ERA), HH% 58%, BB% 12%, and a catastrophic bullpen (xERA 5.92) means BOS has a strong run-scoring edge regardless of their own pitcher's outcome. BOS wRC+ vs LHP is only 82 but Jump's command and hard contact metrics override that concern. Getting BOS team total over 5.5 at +110 is excellent value.
COL @ SDP9:40 PM · Petco Park
COL @ SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael Lorenzen R
xERA4.67 (below avg)K%16.2 (below avg)HH%48.0 (poor)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA5.52IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs85BB%10.3
SDP vs RHP
wRC+152 (elite)K%18.3 (above avg)HH%45.7 (elite)
Michael King R
xERA4.04 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%31.9 (good)Barrel%10.6 (avg)ERA1.59IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs98BB%11.3
COL vs RHP
wRC+72 (poor)K%22.5 (avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+177+1.5 (-125)O8.5 (+100)SDP-200-1.5 (+105)U8.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+150+0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-122)SDP-180-0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCOLO3.5 (+110)U3.5 (-130)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)SDPO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (-125)U2.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Lorenzen3.5 (-112 / -104)15.5 (-110 / -118)Michael King5.5 (+110 / -138)17.5 (-148 / +115)
Michael Lorenzen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs W3.28057166
W3.28057166Jul 12@ L5.07915311
L5.07915311Jul 7@ W6.09556323
W6.09556323Jul 2vs W4.19513624
W4.19513624Jun 27@ W5.29217022
W5.29217022Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ L6.010475411
L6.010475411Jul 17@ L5.09744211
L5.09744211Jul 8vs W6.09244211
W6.09244211Jul 3@ L6.07553222
L6.07553222Jun 28vs L4.19053444
L4.19053444SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Lorenzen
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP5.13.534.05.03.0(1)
at SDP5.13.534.05.03.0(1)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs COL9.00.008.02.01.0(1)
home starts5.72.634.74.32.0(3)
Trends · COL
- COL are 1-6 vs SDP this season (7 games).
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 4-1 in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
- COL are 2-3 in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 7.0 runs/game in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
- COL average 4.2 runs/game in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 6-1 vs COL this season (7 games).
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 1-4 in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 3-2 in Michael King's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 5.4 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 3.6 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.96 (below avg)ERA 5.362d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 2.29 (elite)ERA 3.842d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Weather
80°F, Wind 8 mph
Flags · 4
- COL — Michael Lorenzen: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- COL — Michael Lorenzen: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- COL — Michael Lorenzen: 2026-07-21: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SDP — Michael King: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
AI Analysis
SDP ML is -200 (disqualifying per pricing rules); SDP is the clear edge but at -200 there's no value. Spread at +105 is interesting but COL bullpen xERA 4.96 is shaky, making the run line risky. No clean bet type at a fair price.
MIL @ SFG✓9:45 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
MIL @ SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Logan Henderson R
xERA2.56 (elite)K%29.3 (elite)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%10.3 (avg)ERA3.52IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs76BB%1.7
SFG vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%35.6 (avg)
Landen Roupp R
xERA2.76 (elite)K%18.4 (avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%5.3 (good)ERA1.29IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs97BB%6.6
MIL vs RHP
wRC+126 (above avg)K%23.9 (avg)HH%43.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-148-1.5 (+120)O7.5 (+101)SFG+129+1.5 (-140)U7.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-142-0.5 (+104)O3.5 (-144)SFG+120+0.5 (-135)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMILO3.5 (-142)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)SFGO3.5 (+122)U3.5 (-145)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Henderson5.5 (+120 / -136)15.5 (+136 / -167)Landen Roupp5.5 (-120 / -102)16.5 (-115 / -112)
Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs W5.08095022
W5.08095022Jul 17vs W5.07343011
W5.07343011Jul 9@ W5.17643133
W5.17643133May 22vs W5.08572300
W5.08572300May 16@ W5.08476111
W5.08476111Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ L6.09174022
L6.09174022Jul 17@ W7.09722300
W7.09722300Jul 6vs W8.010453211
W8.010453211Jun 30@ L2.28445666
L2.28445666Jun 25vs L6.010866122
L6.010866122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL3.613.753.07.04.0(2)
home starts6.13.465.34.31.7(3)
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-3 vs SFG this season (5 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 5-0 in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-3 in Logan Henderson's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 4.2 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 2.8 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 3-2 vs MIL this season (5 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 2-3 in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 5.8 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 4.4 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 3.802d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 2.74 (elite)ERA 2.972d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Windy
75°F, Wind 18 mph
Flags · 6
- MIL — Logan Henderson: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SFG bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIL — Logan Henderson: recent opponents high-K: MIA 26%, NYM 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- SFG — Landen Roupp: recent opponents low-K: TOR 17%, SEA 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: wind: Out 18 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
MIL ML (-136)
Henderson is solid (recent ERA 2.38, xERA 2.56 elite), Roupp is STRUGGLING (recent ERA 5.00, 13.75 ERA in 2 career starts vs MIL). MIL offense is hot (wRC+ 126 vs RHP, 5-0 record in Henderson's L5 starts). Wind blowing out 18mph further favors the offense. MIL -1.5 at +126 is the better value play. -136 ML is slightly over preferred threshold.
SEA @ LAD✓10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
SEA @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Luis Castillo R
xERA3.28 (good)K%14.1 (below avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%7.9 (good)ERA4.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs98BB%5.1
LAD vs RHP
wRC+102 (avg)K%25.2 (below avg)HH%37.2 (avg)
Justin Wrobleski L
xERA2.12 (elite)K%35.0 (elite)HH%25.7 (elite)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA1.76IP/gs7.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs98BB%5.0
SEA vs LHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%25.9 (below avg)HH%32.3 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+160+1.5 (-125)O9.5 (+100)LAD-188-1.5 (+106)U9.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+152+0.5 (+104)O5.5 (+108)LAD-180-0.5 (-135)U5.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USEAO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+110)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)LADO5.5 (+105)U4.5 (+112)O2.5 (-140)U2.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULuis Castillo4.5 (-110 / -102)16.5 (+110 / +102)Justin Wrobleski——
Luis Castillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs L7.010134233
L7.010134233Jul 10@ L5.09149144
L5.09149144Jul 3vs L6.010145122
L6.010145122Jun 26@ W6.09144111
W6.09144111Jun 19vs L4.0*6347045
L4.0*6347045Justin Wrobleski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@ W6.18975111
W6.18975111Jul 7vs L7.09496211
L7.09496211Jun 30@ W7.0110117033
W7.0110117033Jun 23@ W7.09235222
W7.09235222Jun 16vs W6.06753000
W6.06753000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Justin Wrobleski
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA—
home starts6.70.907.73.30.7(3)
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 1-4 in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-3 in Luis Castillo's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 2.0 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 4.2 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 4-1 in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-2 in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 5.4 runs/game in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 2.88 (elite)ERA 3.152d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 5.02 (below avg)ERA 5.562d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather
88°F, Wind 9 mph
Flags · 4
- LAD bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.02 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- SEA — Luis Castillo: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-19 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SEA — Luis Castillo: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- SEA — Luis Castillo: 2026-07-10: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
LAD F5 ML (-180)
Justin Wrobleski is elite (xERA 2.12, recent ERA 2.25, 0.90 ERA in 3 home starts, averaging 7.7 IP/gs), matching up against a SEA team that is 1-4 in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts with only 2.0 RS avg. LAD bullpen xERA 5.02 disqualifies full-game ML but Wrobleski goes deep (7.7 IP/gs) making F5 the right vehicle. However -180 exceeds our -150 threshold — flagging with line warning.