AI Picks · 11 Bets · Aug 4
PIT @ MIL u7.5 (-105)
Both starters are elite: Jared Jones xERA 1.95 / recent ERA 1.20 (recent 7.7 K/start); Logan Henderson xERA 2.02 / recent ERA 2.38 (elite form). Under signals align strongly: (1) Both starters have very low recent ERA — Jones 1.20, Henderson 2.38; (2) Both starters have elite xERA sub-2.10 (ace vs ace); (3) Both offenses are below/at average in L12 — PIT wRC+ 92, MIL wRC+ 121 but facing elite pitching; (4) Both bullpens are solid (PIT xERA 3.69, MIL xERA 3.52); (5) Henderson's history at home is dominant (1.80 ERA in 3 home starts, including 1.80 ERA in 1gs vs PIT specifically). PIT wRC+ 92 vs RHP is below average and the Pittsburgh run support in this SP's starts averages just 1.8 RS/game, suggesting they struggle to score. Total of 7.5 is already reasonable but with these two aces in peak form, the under is the play.
Found at 6:09 AM ET
Jared Jones o5.5 Ks (-125)
Jones has been on a tear: 9K, 8K, 6K in his last 3 starts for a 7.7 K/start average. His K% is 29.7% and xERA is a spectacular 1.95. Today he faces MIL, whose K% vs RHP is 19.2% — slightly below average, which might shade his projection down modestly from 7.7 to roughly 6.5–7.0. The 5.5 line is clearly below that adjusted expectation by more than 1.5 Ks. PIT bullpen is noted as stressed, suggesting Jones may be left in longer than usual. His last start was only 77 pitches (short outing), so today could see more volume. The flag about recent low-K opponents (CLE 19%, ARI 16%) means MIL at 19.2% is not a step up from recent opponents, but Jones is so dominant that even a neutral opponent leaves the over as the correct play at -125.
Found at 6:09 AM ET
Troy Melton o5.5 Ks (-115)
Troy Melton is on a scorching hot streak: recent ERA 0.55, averaging 8.3 K/start over his last 3 (9K, 9K, 7K). His K% is 26.8% and xERA 3.69 (good baseline). Today he faces SEA, whose K% vs RHP is 22.6% — roughly in line with recent opponents, no major downgrade needed. Adjusted K projection remains in the 7–8 K range. The 5.5 line is well below that (over 1.5 Ks below adjusted expectation). He's been pitching 5.2–6.1 IP per start with pitch counts in the low-to-mid 90s, so workload supports accumulating Ks. A slight concern is his BB% of 14.1% (command issues) which could limit efficiency, but his recent dominance overrides that concern. T-Mobile Park (APF 92) is a pitcher's park, supporting the under lean but the K prop is independent of that.
Found at 6:09 AM ET
DET @ SEA u7.5 (-105)
Two elite starters in terrific recent form: Troy Melton (recent ERA 0.55, avg 8.3 K/start last 3) and Emerson Hancock (recent ERA 0.67, avg 4.3 K/start last 3). Melton's xERA is 3.69 (good) but his recent form screams ace. Hancock's xERA is 2.69 (elite) and he's been untouchable lately. T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly (APF 92). SEA's offense is below average (wRC+ 91 L12). DET is elite offensively (wRC+ 165) but that's the one concern — however, Hancock has shown the ability to limit even good lineups (5K vs TOR, 6K vs CLE recently). Both bullpens are average (DET xERA 3.91, SEA xERA 3.90) — not elite, but the starters should go deep given recent form. Under signals: both starters in elite recent form, pitcher-friendly park, one cold offense. The 7.5 line feels like it respects the DET offense but not enough the quality of both pitchers.
Found at 12:05 PM ET
HOU Team Total o4.5 (+112)
HOU offense is elite in L12 at wRC+ 140 vs RHP — one of the hottest lineups in today's slate. Trey Yesavage is struggling with a recent ERA of 6.14 (vs xERA of 3.12), and his one-game sample at home for HOU is thin. Yesavage also has a command problem (BB% 8.8%) and a 10% Barrel rate. HOU scored 7.0 RS avg in Yesavage's recent starts (small sample, 1 start). TOR bullpen (xERA 3.22) is solid, which limits full-game ML upside, but HOU scoring 4.5+ runs off Yesavage + TOR pen is a reasonable expectation given the elite offense. Getting +112 on a team-total over 4.5 for the hottest lineup on the board is value.
Found at 7:35 PM ET
Tarik Skubal o7.5 Ks (+116)
Skubal is arguably the best pitcher in baseball: xERA 2.22, K% 35.1, recent ERA 1.59, averaging 7.7 K/start over his last 3 (9K, 5K, 9K). The critical calibration: CHC vs LHP K% is 32.3% — this is an elite strikeout lineup against left-handed pitching. Skubal's recent Ks came vs LAA, PHI, and ATH — none as high a K% as CHC. Adjusting UP for this matchup, expected Ks shift toward 8.0-9.0. Getting +116 (better than even money) on a pitcher averaging 7.7 Ks who is now facing the lineup MOST likely to strike out vs LHP is clear mispricing. The LAD bullpen is stressed (6.3 IP last game), so Skubal will be pitched deep. Line is well below his calibrated expectation.
Found at 5:08 PM ET
ATH Team Total u4.5 (-140)
Brady Singer is elite and currently sharp: xERA 2.58, recent ERA 2.36, averaging 5.7 K/start. ATH offense is average in L12 (wRC+ 96 vs RHP) and has been scoring only 3.6 runs per game in away games in the starter's last 5 starts (1-4 record away). CIN bullpen is solid (xERA 3.99). Singer has 1 start vs ATH (3.00 ERA, 6 IP) and has been dominant of late. ATH team total of 4.5 at -140 is on the expensive side, but the signal is clear: elite pitcher vs average offense with poor road scoring trends.
Found at 5:08 PM ET
Line Warning: Consider ATH F5 Team Total Under 1.5 at +130 if price is a concern — pure Singer vs ATH offense with no bullpen risk.
Joe Ryan K o5.5 (-123)
Joe Ryan is averaging 6.7 K/start in his last 3 with a recent ERA of 1.06 — he's legitimately locked in right now despite the ugly season ERA and poor xERA. His recent K opponents (LAA, NYY, HOU) are mixed, with HOU being a tough lineup. KCR vs RHP has a 19.9% K rate — average — so no major downward calibration needed. Ryan's 5.5 K line is near his recent average of 6.7, and at -123 this is reasonable value. Note xERA 4.88 and high Barrel%/HH% flags are concerning for his overall quality, but the K rate and recent form justify the K prop specifically. The 'fresh bullpen' flag suggests manager may pull Ryan early, which is the key risk — but his 91-106 recent pitch counts suggest he's going deep enough.
Found at 7:35 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
Jesus Luzardo o7.5 Ks (-111)
Luzardo is arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball right now: recent ERA 1.00 over his last 3 starts, averaging 9.0 K/start with his elite xERA of 2.85. He went 7K, 11K, 9K in those starts for a true average of 9.0. Today he faces WSN, a team with 20.3% K% vs LHP — comparable to the lineups he's been carving up. His matchup history vs WSN is exceptional (10.3 K/gs in 3 career starts vs them). The 7.5 line looks low given his calibrated expectation is near 9.0 Ks. He averages 6.1 IP/gs with enough volume to get there, and a bullpen rest note (WSN fresh pen) only slightly shortens potential Luzardo outings — he's been going long regardless. Adjusted expectation ~8.5–9.0 Ks vs 7.5 line = clear over.
Found at 6:09 AM ET
Joey Cantillo o5.5 Ks (-115)
Cantillo's recent 3-start average is 7.7 K/start (7K, 9K, 7K) with an elite xERA of 2.98 and a towering 30.6% K%. The flag note about his one bad outing (5 ER in 3.2 IP) does not affect the K projection, as the Ks came regardless. Today he faces NYM vs LHP — but the NYM lineup has wRC+ 131 vs LHP (elite), so the offense is dangerous. However, NYM's K% vs LHP is 26.9%, which is actually elevated — these hitters strike out frequently against lefties, which is exactly the calibration we need. That 26.9% K% vs LHP boosts Cantillo's expected K output above his raw average. Adjusting for NYM's elevated K rate vs LHP compared to his recent opponents, the projection likely holds at 7.0+ Ks. The 5.5 line is well below that. The one concern is Cantillo's average IP/gs is only 4.2, but recent starts have been 5.0 IP consistently and he's been at 80–94 pitches. Worth the bet at -115.
Found at 6:09 AM ET
Brady Singer o4.5 Ks (-118)
Singer has a 19.5% K% and has averaged 5.7 K/start over his last 3 starts (6K, 5K, 6K). His xERA is 2.58 (elite) and recent ERA 2.36. CIN has a 28.5% K% vs RHP — the highest K rate among today's opposing lineups for any starter. The high CIN K% means Singer's actual expected strikeout output is likely HIGHER than his recent averages, which already came against normal-K teams (COL, PHI, BAL). Adjusted expectation ~6.5 Ks. The 4.5 line is clearly undervalued at -118. Singer also averages 6.0 IP/gs, giving him plenty of chances to accumulate.
Found at 12:05 PM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
LAA @ 
BAL6:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
LAA @ BALMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
G. Rodriguez R
xERA9.05 (poor)K%19.4 (avg)HH%55.8 (poor)Barrel%20.9 (poor)ERA9.00IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs72BB%8.1
BAL vs RHP
wRC+68 (poor)K%23.8 (avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)
Cade Povich L
xERA4.67 (below avg)K%17.2 (avg)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA5.93IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs63BB%6.9
LAA vs LHP
wRC+105 (avg)K%25.0 (below avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+390+2.5 (-123)O7.5 (+100)BAL-476-2.5 (+105)U6.5 (+116)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+126+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-125)BAL-158-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-104)
Team Totals
OverUnderLAAO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+110)BALO4.5 (-106)U4.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UG. Rodriguez5.5 (+122 / -145)16.5 (-119 / -111)Cade Povich——
G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4@ L3.03922122
L3.03922122Jul 29vs 
L5.09865222
L5.09865222Jul 24@ 
L4.08036255
L4.08036255Jul 18vs 
L4.08737166
L4.08737166Jul 10@ 
W5.17906133
W5.17906133Cade Povich · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs W4.07075100
W4.07075100May 7@ 
L3.04313233
L3.04313233May 1@ 
L4.07747255
L4.07747255Apr 12vs W6.29755011
W6.29755011Apr 5@ 
L5.2*8724322
L5.2*8724322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
G. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL3.06.002.02.01.0(1)
at BAL3.06.002.02.01.0(1)
Cade Povich
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA4.00.007.05.01.0(1)
home starts5.13.515.36.71.0(3)
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 2-1 vs BAL this season (3 games).
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 1-4 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 2-1 in G. Rodriguez's last 3 away starts.
- LAA average 3.4 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 5.7 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 1-2 vs LAA this season (3 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 1-2 in Cade Povich's last 3 starts.
- BAL are 1-0 in Cade Povich's last 1 home starts.
- BAL average 3.7 runs/game in Cade Povich's last 3 starts.
- BAL average 6.0 runs/game in Cade Povich's last 1 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.32 (good)ERA 2.792d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 2.65 (elite)ERA 3.802d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph E
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- LAA — G. Rodriguez: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- LAA — G. Rodriguez: Barrel% 21% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- BAL — Cade Povich: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- BAL — Cade Povich: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAA — G. Rodriguez: recent opponents low-K: DET 18%, SFG 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- BAL — Cade Povich: 89 days since last start (2026-05-07) — may not be fully stretched out
- BAL — Cade Povich: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-04-05 — may affect pitch count or availability
- BAL — Cade Povich: last start: 43 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
ATH @ 
CIN✓6:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
ATH @ CIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
J.T. Ginn R
xERA3.10 (good)K%28.1 (elite)HH%27.8 (elite)Barrel%5.6 (good)ERA6.14IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs68BB%12.5
CIN vs RHP
wRC+98 (avg)K%28.5 (poor)HH%40.3 (above avg)
Brady Singer R
xERA2.58 (elite)K%19.5 (avg)HH%31.6 (good)Barrel%3.5 (elite)ERA2.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs86BB%6.5
ATH vs RHP
wRC+96 (avg)K%16.8 (above avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH-134-1.5 (+140)O6.5 (+106)CIN+125+1.5 (-176)U6.5 (-125)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+110+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (-128)CIN-130-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATHO4.5 (+104)U4.5 (-130)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)CINO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJ.T. Ginn5.5 (+121 / +132)15.5 (+125 / -167)Brady Singer4.5 (-118 / -104)17.5 (-116 / -110)
J.T. Ginn · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4@ L3.03722000
L3.03722000Jul 18vs 
W6.18271300
W6.18271300Jul 12@ 
L4.18676388
L4.18676388Jul 7@ L4.06142222
L4.06142222Jul 1vs 
W6.010443511
W6.010443511Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs L4.05653211
L4.05653211Jul 29vs 
L4.110037444
L4.110037444Jul 22@ 
W6.210166133
W6.210166133Jul 17@ 
W7.09664022
W7.09664022Jul 9vs 
L7.18954111
L7.18954111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
J.T. Ginn
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN3.50.004.02.02.0(2)
at CIN3.00.002.02.00.0(1)
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH5.02.704.53.01.5(2)
home starts5.13.554.34.72.3(3)
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have lost 5 straight.
- ATH are 3-2 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-4 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 away starts.
- ATH average 6.8 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 3.6 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 2-3 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 2.6 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 1.4 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 5.29 (poor)ERA 7.302d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 1.762d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Clear, Wind 3 mph SE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- ATH — J.T. Ginn: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.29 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ATH bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATH — J.T. Ginn: 17 days since last start (2026-07-18) — may not be fully stretched out
- ATH — J.T. Ginn: 2026-07-12: 8 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CIN — Brady Singer: 2026-07-29: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Brady Singer o4.5 Ks (-118)
Singer has a 19.5% K% and has averaged 5.7 K/start over his last 3 starts (6K, 5K, 6K). His xERA is 2.58 (elite) and recent ERA 2.36. CIN has a 28.5% K% vs RHP — the highest K rate among today's opposing lineups for any starter. The high CIN K% means Singer's actual expected strikeout output is likely HIGHER than his recent averages, which already came against normal-K teams (COL, PHI, BAL). Adjusted expectation ~6.5 Ks. The 4.5 line is clearly undervalued at -118. Singer also averages 6.0 IP/gs, giving him plenty of chances to accumulate.
NYM @ CLE✓6:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
NYM @ CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Sean Manaea L
xERA4.86 (below avg)K%19.4 (avg)HH%44.0 (below avg)Barrel%12.0 (below avg)ERA3.78IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs73BB%8.3
CLE vs LHP
wRC+66 (poor)K%18.4 (above avg)HH%25.0 (poor)
Joey Cantillo L
xERA2.98 (elite)K%30.6 (elite)HH%44.7 (below avg)Barrel%5.3 (good)ERA6.39IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs73BB%8.1
NYM vs LHP
wRC+131 (elite)K%26.9 (below avg)HH%50.0 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM-195-1.5 (-120)O11.5 (+116)CLE+190+1.5 (+101)U10.5 (+115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+122+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (+108)CLE-145-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYMO3.5 (-104)U3.5 (-122)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)CLEO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+120)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USean Manaea4.5 (-130 / +103)16.5 (-117 / -110)Joey Cantillo5.5 (-115 / +107)—
Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4@ W2.04533300
W2.04533300Jul 29vs 
W6.08945222
W6.08945222Jul 24vs L6.08436211
L6.08436211Jul 18@ L4.29977244
L4.29977244Jul 9vs 
W7.09766123
W7.09766123Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs L3.05554114
L3.05554114Jul 29@ W4.08984100
W4.08984100Jul 24@ 
L3.27448155
L3.27448155Jul 19vs L5.08077344
L5.08077344Jul 12@ W5.08596211
W5.08596211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Manaea
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE3.66.253.05.01.5(2)
at CLE2.00.003.03.03.0(1)
Joey Cantillo
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM3.03.005.04.01.0(1)
home starts4.34.855.34.73.0(3)
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 2-3 in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-3 in Sean Manaea's last 4 away starts.
- NYM average 3.2 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 2.8 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 4 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 3.2 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.4 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 1.90 (elite)ERA 1.882d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 4.682d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph N
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- NYM bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM — Sean Manaea: 2026-07-18: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NYM — Sean Manaea: recent opponents low-K: LAD 17%, ATL 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: 2026-07-24: 5 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Joey Cantillo o5.5 Ks (-115)
Cantillo's recent 3-start average is 7.7 K/start (7K, 9K, 7K) with an elite xERA of 2.98 and a towering 30.6% K%. The flag note about his one bad outing (5 ER in 3.2 IP) does not affect the K projection, as the Ks came regardless. Today he faces NYM vs LHP — but the NYM lineup has wRC+ 131 vs LHP (elite), so the offense is dangerous. However, NYM's K% vs LHP is 26.9%, which is actually elevated — these hitters strike out frequently against lefties, which is exactly the calibration we need. That 26.9% K% vs LHP boosts Cantillo's expected K output above his raw average. Adjusting for NYM's elevated K rate vs LHP compared to his recent opponents, the projection likely holds at 7.0+ Ks. The 5.5 line is well below that. The one concern is Cantillo's average IP/gs is only 4.2, but recent starts have been 5.0 IP consistently and he's been at 80–94 pitches. Worth the bet at -115.
WSN @ PHI✓6:40 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
WSN @ PHI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Carson Palmquist
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
PHI
No data
Jesus Luzardo L
xERA2.85 (elite)K%28.4 (elite)HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA3.93IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs79BB%8.1
WSN vs LHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%20.1 (avg)HH%32.0 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+1700+5.5 (+102)O9.5 (-118)PHI-2400-5.5 (-111)U9.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+194+1.5 (-144)O4.5 (-128)PHI-238-1.5 (+110)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO3.5 (+106)U3.5 (-135)O1.5 (-105)U1.5 (-125)PHIO5.5 (+112)U5.5 (-130)O2.5 (-135)U2.5 (+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCarson Palmquist——Jesus Luzardo7.5 (-111 / -114)18.5 (+125 / -160)
Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs W3.03321100
W3.03321100Jul 29@ L6.110056366
L6.110056366Jul 24vs L7.010594111
L7.010594111Jul 18vs W5.09072211
W5.09072211Jul 9@ W7.096112200
W7.096112200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jesus Luzardo
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.12.377.33.32.3(3)
home starts5.01.206.02.31.3(3)
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 2-6 vs PHI this season (8 games).
- WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN have lost 6 straight.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 6-2 vs WSN this season (8 games).
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 3-2 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.
- PHI average 3.8 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 4.6 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 3.532d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
PHI
xERA 3.91 (avg)ERA 4.032d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph ESE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- WSN — Carson Palmquist: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- WSN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PHI — Jesus Luzardo: 2026-07-29: 6 ER in 6.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Jesus Luzardo o7.5 Ks (-111)
Luzardo is arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball right now: recent ERA 1.00 over his last 3 starts, averaging 9.0 K/start with his elite xERA of 2.85. He went 7K, 11K, 9K in those starts for a true average of 9.0. Today he faces WSN, a team with 20.3% K% vs LHP — comparable to the lineups he's been carving up. His matchup history vs WSN is exceptional (10.3 K/gs in 3 career starts vs them). The 7.5 line looks low given his calibrated expectation is near 9.0 Ks. He averages 6.1 IP/gs with enough volume to get there, and a bullpen rest note (WSN fresh pen) only slightly shortens potential Luzardo outings — he's been going long regardless. Adjusted expectation ~8.5–9.0 Ks vs 7.5 line = clear over.
STL @ NYY7:05 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions
STL @ NYYMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Hunter Dobbins R
xERA2.27 (elite)K%18.6 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.86IP/gs8.2 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs62BB%5.7
NYY vs RHP
wRC+64 (poor)K%31.2 (poor)HH%48.9 (elite)
Ryan Weathers L
xERA3.77 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%48.0 (poor)Barrel%4.0 (elite)ERA3.12IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs76BB%8.2
STL vs LHP
wRC+66 (poor)K%20.3 (avg)HH%34.1 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+283+1.5 (+110)O7.5 (+114)NYY-320-1.5 (-138)U7.5 (-140)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+128+0.5 (-115)O4.5 (-110)NYY-160-0.5 (-113)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderSTLO3.5 (-110)U3.5 (-113)NYYO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UHunter Dobbins3.5 (-154 / +134)15.5 (+125 / -166)Ryan Weathers5.5 (-106 / -107)17.5 (-148 / +113)
Hunter Dobbins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4@ L1.21601011
L1.21601011Jul 27vs 
L5.1*8547144
L5.1*8547144Jul 22@ W6.08656000
W6.08656000Jul 7vs 
L5.09244333
L5.09244333Jun 11@ L4.18857033
L4.18857033Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs L2.02521000
L2.02521000Jul 30@ L7.010643300
L7.010643300Jul 25@ W5.29776111
W5.29776111Jul 20vs W4.29957255
W4.29957255Jul 10@ W5.19166011
W5.19166011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Hunter Dobbins
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY4.12.951.72.30.3(3)
at NYY3.15.810.02.50.0(2)
Ryan Weathers
IPERAKHBB
vs STL2.00.002.01.00.0(1)
home starts3.47.944.34.71.3(3)
Trends · STL
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 2-2 in Hunter Dobbins's last 4 starts.
- STL are 2-1 in Hunter Dobbins's last 3 away starts.
- STL average 4.2 runs/game in Hunter Dobbins's last 4 starts.
- STL average 5.0 runs/game in Hunter Dobbins's last 3 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-4 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.6 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.33 (avg)ERA 6.112d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 4.702d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SSE
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- NYY — Ryan Weathers: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- STL — Hunter Dobbins: 13 days since last start (2026-07-22) — may not be fully stretched out
- STL — Hunter Dobbins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27, 2026-06-05 — may affect pitch count or availability
- STL — Hunter Dobbins: recent opponents high-K: NYM 25%, LAA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- NYY — Ryan Weathers: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- NYY — Ryan Weathers: 2026-07-20: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
CHW @ 
BOS7:10 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly
CHW @ BOSMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Davis Martin R
xERA3.57 (good)K%19.7 (avg)HH%43.1 (below avg)Barrel%3.9 (elite)ERA4.86IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs71BB%5.6
BOS vs RHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%22.3 (avg)HH%32.6 (below avg)
Patrick Sandoval L
xERA4.18 (avg)K%22.4 (avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA3.68IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs64BB%7.5
CHW vs LHP
wRC+76 (poor)K%23.1 (avg)HH%38.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+1840+6.5 (-103)O13.5 (-105)BOS-2400-6.5 (-125)U13.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+100+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-138)BOS-124-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderCHWO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-130)BOSO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDavis Martin4.5 (+100 / -107)16.5 (-120 / -104)Patrick Sandoval5.5 (-118 / +100)15.5 (+101 / -130)
Davis Martin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4@ L0.12005066
L0.12005066Jul 29vs W6.010665244
W6.010665244Jul 24vs L5.08836044
L5.08836044Jul 18@ 
L5.28554211
L5.28554211Jul 8vs L4.08426255
L4.08426255Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs W1.01620100
W1.01620100Jul 29@ W5.09275222
W5.09275222Jul 24vs W4.28435200
W4.28435200Jul 18vs W5.07659145
W5.07659145Jul 9@ W4.16555111
W4.16555111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Davis Martin
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS3.410.692.75.71.0(3)
at BOS0.1540.000.05.00.0(1)
Patrick Sandoval
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW2.51.763.52.51.0(2)
home starts3.43.533.34.71.3(3)
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 0-3 vs BOS this season (3 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 1-4 in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 0-5 in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 3.2 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 3.0 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 3-0 vs CHW this season (3 games).
- BOS are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS have won 5 straight.
- BOS are 4-0 in Patrick Sandoval's last 4 starts.
- BOS are 2-0 in Patrick Sandoval's last 2 home starts.
- BOS average 4.8 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 4 starts.
- BOS average 6.5 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.04 (good)ERA 3.172d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 2.81 (elite)ERA 2.112d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- CHW — Davis Martin: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- CHW — Davis Martin: 2026-07-24: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- BOS — Patrick Sandoval: 2026-07-18: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIA @ ATL7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
MIA @ ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Gusto R
xERA3.74 (good)K%20.9 (avg)HH%51.6 (poor)Barrel%3.2 (elite)ERA6.10IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs51BB%7.0
ATL vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%22.4 (avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)
Grant Holmes R
xERA5.69 (poor)K%16.4 (below avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA5.52IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs58BB%9.0
MIA vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%42.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+136+1.5 (-165)O7.5 (-118)ATL-150-1.5 (+142)U7.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+116+0.5 (-122)O5.5 (+112)ATL-145-0.5 (-106)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
OverUnderMIAO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-140)ATLO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Gusto3.5 (-115 / -106)14.5 (+100 / -115)Grant Holmes4.5 (+100 / -121)14.5 (-152 / +115)
Ryan Gusto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4@ L1.01811000
L1.01811000Jul 29vs W5.07939266
W5.07939266Jul 24vs 
L3.15742111
L3.15742111Jul 21@ L2.0*2420000
L2.0*2420000Jul 18@ L2.1*3823012
L2.1*3823012Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs L1.01531000
L1.01531000Jul 30vs W4.26945233
W4.26945233Jul 24@ W5.09156233
W5.09156233Jul 19vs 
W5.07427233
W5.07427233Jul 8@ W5.09053100
W5.09053100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Gusto
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL3.410.593.74.02.3(3)
at ATL3.53.864.52.51.0(2)
Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA3.42.653.73.02.3(3)
home starts3.45.293.04.31.3(3)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-5 vs ATL this season (7 games).
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 3-2 in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-2 in Ryan Gusto's last 3 away starts.
- MIA average 4.2 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 3.0 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 5-2 vs MIA this season (7 games).
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL have won 5 straight.
- ATL are 5-0 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-2 in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 5.6 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.4 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.88 (avg)ERA 4.542d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.83 (avg)ERA 4.702d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph SSE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ATL — Grant Holmes: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ATL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-21, 2026-07-18 — may affect pitch count or availability
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- ATL — Grant Holmes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-27 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ATL — Grant Holmes: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
MIN @ KCR✓7:40 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
MIN @ KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Joe Ryan R
xERA4.88 (below avg)K%17.3 (avg)HH%51.2 (poor)Barrel%20.9 (poor)ERA9.82IP/gs5.5 IP/gsH/gs9.5PC/gs88BB%0.0
KCR vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%19.9 (above avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
Randy Dobnak R
xERA3.96 (avg)K%15.4 (below avg)HH%51.0 (poor)Barrel%4.1 (elite)ERA0.55IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs91BB%9.2
MIN vs RHP
wRC+84 (below avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%45.5 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN-140-1.5 (+112)O9.5 (+102)KCR+132+1.5 (-125)U9.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN-154-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-140)KCR+126+0.5 (-115)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO5.5 (+114)U4.5 (+108)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)KCRO3.5 (-145)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJoe Ryan5.5 (-123 / +100)17.5 (-165 / +140)Randy Dobnak2.5 (-130 / +102)15.5 (-108 / -119)
Joe Ryan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29vs L6.09348044
L6.09348044Jul 20@ L4.078310088
L4.078310088Jul 11vs W6.09466222
W6.09466222Jul 5@ W7.010693100
W7.010693100Jun 30@ L4.09155306
L4.09155306Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29@ W7.010144100
W7.010144100Jul 23@ L5.07634100
L5.07634100Jul 18vs W4.19634411
W4.19634411Jul 8@ L5.2*9523300
L5.2*9523300Jul 2vs L4.0*6426122
L4.0*6426122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Joe Ryan
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.35.624.07.70.7(3)
at KCR4.36.923.05.01.3(3)
Randy Dobnak
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN7.00.004.04.01.0(1)
home starts4.12.203.04.04.0(1)
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 4-6 vs KCR this season (10 games).
- MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 2-3 in Joe Ryan's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Joe Ryan's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 3.8 runs/game in Joe Ryan's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 5.6 runs/game in Joe Ryan's last 5 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 6-4 vs MIN this season (10 games).
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR have lost 4 straight.
- KCR are 2-1 in Randy Dobnak's last 3 starts.
- KCR are 1-0 in Randy Dobnak's last 1 home starts.
- KCR average 4.3 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 3 starts.
- KCR average 6.0 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 1 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.58 (good)ERA 3.352d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 4.11 (avg)ERA 4.862d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
90°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph SSE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- MIN — Joe Ryan: HH% 51% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIN — Joe Ryan: Barrel% 21% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: HH% 51% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIN bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- MIN — Joe Ryan: 2026-07-20: 8 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-08, 2026-07-02 — may affect pitch count or availability
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
Joe Ryan K o5.5 (-123)
Joe Ryan is averaging 6.7 K/start in his last 3 with a recent ERA of 1.06 — he's legitimately locked in right now despite the ugly season ERA and poor xERA. His recent K opponents (LAA, NYY, HOU) are mixed, with HOU being a tough lineup. KCR vs RHP has a 19.9% K rate — average — so no major downward calibration needed. Ryan's 5.5 K line is near his recent average of 6.7, and at -123 this is reasonable value. Note xERA 4.88 and high Barrel%/HH% flags are concerning for his overall quality, but the K rate and recent form justify the K prop specifically. The 'fresh bullpen' flag suggests manager may pull Ryan early, which is the key risk — but his 91-106 recent pitch counts suggest he's going deep enough.
PIT @ MIL✓7:40 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
PIT @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jared Jones R
xERA1.95 (elite)K%29.7 (elite)HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA2.65IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs78BB%6.2
MIL vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%19.2 (above avg)HH%40.7 (above avg)
Logan Henderson R
xERA2.02 (elite)K%34.5 (elite)HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA1.72IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs82BB%3.5
PIT vs RHP
wRC+93 (below avg)K%25.6 (below avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+132+1.5 (-170)O7.5 (+100)MIL-141-1.5 (+148)U7.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+124+0.5 (-130)O3.5 (-144)MIL-148-0.5 (+100)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO3.5 (+105)U3.5 (-130)O1.5 (+100)U1.5 (-130)MILO3.5 (-135)U3.5 (+106)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJared Jones5.5 (-114 / -106)14.5 (-159 / +120)Logan Henderson6.5 (+100 / -107)15.5 (+102 / -126)
Jared Jones · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29vs 
L6.07754233
L6.07754233Jul 24vs L6.08352111
L6.08352111Jul 18@ W5.07493111
W5.07493111Jul 8vs L6.07780000
L6.07780000Jul 2@ W4.07362211
W4.07362211Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28@ W5.29372200
W5.29372200Jul 22vs W5.08095022
W5.08095022Jul 17vs W5.07343011
W5.07343011Jul 9@ W5.17643133
W5.17643133May 22vs W5.08572300
W5.08572300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Henderson
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.01.806.05.02.0(1)
home starts5.01.806.73.31.0(3)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 6-2 vs MIL this season (8 games).
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 1-4 in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Jared Jones's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 1.8 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 4.6 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-6 vs PIT this season (8 games).
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 5-0 in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 4-0 in Logan Henderson's last 4 home starts.
- MIL average 5.4 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 3.8 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 4 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.37 (good)ERA 3.632d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 4.012d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 9 mph SW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- PIT bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIL bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PIT — Jared Jones: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PIT — Jared Jones: recent opponents low-K: CLE 19%, ARI 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
PIT @ MIL u7.5 (-105)
Both starters are elite: Jared Jones xERA 1.95 / recent ERA 1.20 (recent 7.7 K/start); Logan Henderson xERA 2.02 / recent ERA 2.38 (elite form). Under signals align strongly: (1) Both starters have very low recent ERA — Jones 1.20, Henderson 2.38; (2) Both starters have elite xERA sub-2.10 (ace vs ace); (3) Both offenses are below/at average in L12 — PIT wRC+ 92, MIL wRC+ 121 but facing elite pitching; (4) Both bullpens are solid (PIT xERA 3.69, MIL xERA 3.52); (5) Henderson's history at home is dominant (1.80 ERA in 3 home starts, including 1.80 ERA in 1gs vs PIT specifically). PIT wRC+ 92 vs RHP is below average and the Pittsburgh run support in this SP's starts averages just 1.8 RS/game, suggesting they struggle to score. Total of 7.5 is already reasonable but with these two aces in peak form, the under is the play.
Jared Jones o5.5 Ks (-125)
Jones has been on a tear: 9K, 8K, 6K in his last 3 starts for a 7.7 K/start average. His K% is 29.7% and xERA is a spectacular 1.95. Today he faces MIL, whose K% vs RHP is 19.2% — slightly below average, which might shade his projection down modestly from 7.7 to roughly 6.5–7.0. The 5.5 line is clearly below that adjusted expectation by more than 1.5 Ks. PIT bullpen is noted as stressed, suggesting Jones may be left in longer than usual. His last start was only 77 pitches (short outing), so today could see more volume. The flag about recent low-K opponents (CLE 19%, ARI 16%) means MIL at 19.2% is not a step up from recent opponents, but Jones is so dominant that even a neutral opponent leaves the over as the correct play at -125.
LAD @ CHC✓8:05 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
LAD @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tarik Skubal L
xERA2.22 (elite)K%35.1 (elite)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%8.5 (avg)ERA1.71IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs90BB%3.9
CHC vs LHP
wRC+144 (elite)K%32.3 (poor)HH%33.3 (below avg)
Javier Assad R
xERA2.97 (elite)K%28.9 (elite)HH%21.7 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA1.08IP/gs8.3 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs47BB%7.9
LAD vs RHP
wRC+116 (above avg)K%22.5 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-186-1.5 (-120)O9.0 (-110)CHC+176+1.5 (+105)U9.0 (-107)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-220-1.5 (+116)O4.5 (-130)CHC+176+1.5 (-152)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULADO5.5 (+102)U5.5 (-125)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)CHCO3.5 (-108)U3.5 (-118)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTarik Skubal7.5 (+118 / -133)18.5 (+152 / -183)Javier Assad3.5 (+104 / -132)14.5 (-113 / -115)
Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29vs L6.29264133
L6.29264133Jul 24vs W7.191124211
W7.191124211Jul 18@ W7.08795000
W7.08795000Jul 12vs L5.09354122
L5.09354122Jul 7vs W5.09695211
W5.09695211Javier Assad · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30@ W4.18366211
W4.18366211Jul 25@ W3.0*3231000
W3.0*3231000Jul 20vs L1.0*2622101
L1.0*2622101Jul 11@ W5.08247022
W5.08247022Jul 5vs W4.28022200
W4.28022200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tarik Skubal
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC7.21.256.08.00.0(1)
at CHC—
Javier Assad
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD—
home starts4.20.002.02.02.0(1)
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-2 vs CHC this season (4 games).
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD have lost 4 straight.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 2-2 vs LAD this season (4 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 4-1 in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-0 in Javier Assad's last 3 home starts.
- CHC average 5.0 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 5.3 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 4.49 (avg)ERA 5.862d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 3.05 (good)ERA 1.632d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 3 mph SE
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- CHC — Javier Assad: small sample (8.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- LAD bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC — Javier Assad: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-25, 2026-07-20 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — Javier Assad: recent opponents low-K: STL 18%, STL 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
Tarik Skubal o7.5 Ks (+116)
Skubal is arguably the best pitcher in baseball: xERA 2.22, K% 35.1, recent ERA 1.59, averaging 7.7 K/start over his last 3 (9K, 5K, 9K). The critical calibration: CHC vs LHP K% is 32.3% — this is an elite strikeout lineup against left-handed pitching. Skubal's recent Ks came vs LAA, PHI, and ATH — none as high a K% as CHC. Adjusting UP for this matchup, expected Ks shift toward 8.0-9.0. Getting +116 (better than even money) on a pitcher averaging 7.7 Ks who is now facing the lineup MOST likely to strike out vs LHP is clear mispricing. The LAD bullpen is stressed (6.3 IP last game), so Skubal will be pitched deep. Line is well below his calibrated expectation.
SFG @ TEX8:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
SFG @ TEXMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Blade Tidwell R
xERA3.15 (good)K%18.2 (avg)HH%26.7 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs27BB%9.1
TEX vs RHP
wRC+103 (avg)K%27.5 (below avg)HH%35.6 (avg)
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA3.07 (good)K%28.0 (elite)HH%27.7 (elite)Barrel%10.6 (avg)ERA5.60IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs93BB%4.0
SFG vs LHP
wRC+86 (below avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%41.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+176+1.5 (-125)O8.0 (-105)TEX-187-1.5 (+112)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+162+0.5 (+104)O4.5 (+100)TEX-195-0.5 (-135)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (+118)U3.5 (-140)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)TEXO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBlade Tidwell4.5 (+130 / -167)14.5 (-141 / +106)MacKenzie Gore6.5 (-111 / -106)17.5 (-185 / +149)
Blade Tidwell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 28@ L2.0*4724122
L2.0*4724122Apr 23vs L2.0*2521100
L2.0*2521100Apr 17@ W1.0*1000000
W1.0*1000000Apr 15@ L1.0*1310000
L1.0*1310000Apr 10@ W1.0*1813022
W1.0*1813022MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29@ L7.09593033
L7.09593033Jul 24vs W5.09657233
W5.09657233Jul 18@ W5.28776155
W5.28776155Jul 12vs W4.06542111
W4.06542111Jul 8vs L5.09079177
L5.09079177SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.00.759.52.52.0(2)
home starts4.77.075.36.01.3(3)
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX have lost 6 straight.
- TEX are 3-2 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 3.8 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.6 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.91 (avg)ERA 3.272d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 4.13 (avg)ERA 4.872d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 2
- SFG — Blade Tidwell: small sample (5.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- SFG — Blade Tidwell: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-04-28, 2026-04-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
AI Analysis
Blade Tidwell is flagged as a bullpen/spot starter with only 3 total innings across 3 recent starts (10-18 pitch counts) — this is effectively a 'NO STATS' equivalent for a full starter and introduces massive uncertainty about workload and effectiveness today. MacKenzie Gore is struggling badly (recent ERA 8.24) but has an excellent history vs SFG (0.75 ERA, 9.5 K/gs in 2gs). These opposing forces — unknown Tidwell workload vs historically dominant Gore who is currently terrible — make any confident bet impossible.
TOR @ HOU✓8:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
TOR @ HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Trey Yesavage R
xERA3.12 (good)K%32.4 (elite)HH%27.5 (elite)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA3.78IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs95BB%8.8
HOU vs RHP
wRC+140 (elite)K%21.0 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)
Hayden Wesneski R
xERA7.24 (poor)K%16.0 (below avg)HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%5.6 (good)ERA4.76IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs79BB%8.0
TOR vs RHP
wRC+103 (avg)K%15.3 (elite)HH%31.6 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+128+1.5 (-174)O8.5 (+100)HOU-136-1.5 (+146)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR+108+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-115)HOU-130-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-113)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTORO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)HOUO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrey Yesavage5.5 (-105 / -115)17.5 (+102 / -109)Hayden Wesneski3.5 (-161 / +130)15.5 (-125 / -104)
Trey Yesavage · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29@ W6.29743311
W6.29743311Jul 24@ L4.09395133
L4.09395133Jul 19vs L6.09595233
L6.09595233Jul 11@ L1.25911744
L1.25911744Jul 5@ L6.09673223
L6.09673223Hayden Wesneski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29@ W5.27947233
W5.27947233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Trey Yesavage
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.21.735.02.05.0(1)
at HOU—
Hayden Wesneski
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR—
home starts5.34.506.74.31.3(3)
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 2-2 vs HOU this season (4 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 1-4 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-3 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.
- TOR average 3.2 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 4.0 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 2-2 vs TOR this season (4 games).
- HOU are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 1-0 in Hayden Wesneski's last 1 starts.
- HOU average 7.0 runs/game in Hayden Wesneski's last 1 starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.22 (good)ERA 2.572d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 2.62 (elite)ERA 2.742d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- HOU — Hayden Wesneski: small sample (5.2 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- HOU — Hayden Wesneski: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- HOU — Hayden Wesneski: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
HOU Team Total o4.5 (+112)
HOU offense is elite in L12 at wRC+ 140 vs RHP — one of the hottest lineups in today's slate. Trey Yesavage is struggling with a recent ERA of 6.14 (vs xERA of 3.12), and his one-game sample at home for HOU is thin. Yesavage also has a command problem (BB% 8.8%) and a 10% Barrel rate. HOU scored 7.0 RS avg in Yesavage's recent starts (small sample, 1 start). TOR bullpen (xERA 3.22) is solid, which limits full-game ML upside, but HOU scoring 4.5+ runs off Yesavage + TOR pen is a reasonable expectation given the elite offense. Getting +112 on a team-total over 4.5 for the hottest lineup on the board is value.
TBR @ COL8:40 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
TBR @ COLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Freddy Peralta R
xERA3.69 (good)K%22.4 (avg)HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%7.0 (good)ERA7.24IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs97BB%13.4
COL vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%24.3 (below avg)HH%35.0 (avg)
Gabriel Hughes R
xERA2.13 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA3.52IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs82BB%6.2
TBR vs RHP
wRC+103 (avg)K%21.2 (avg)HH%39.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-166-1.5 (-110)O11.0 (+100)COL+159+1.5 (-108)U10.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-164-0.5 (-120)O5.5 (-128)COL+130+0.5 (-108)U5.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTBRO6.5 (+110)U5.5 (+108)O3.5 (+114)U3.5 (-145)COLO4.5 (-108)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFreddy Peralta5.5 (+120 / -140)15.5 (-114 / -107)Gabriel Hughes3.5 (+108 / -129)15.5 (+116 / +122)
Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs W4.09336223
W4.09336223Jul 20@ L5.110768277
L5.110768277Jul 11vs L4.19263522
L4.19263522Jul 6@ W4.210366113
W4.210366113Jul 1@ L4.09147355
L4.09147355Gabriel Hughes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29@ L5.07626133
L5.07626133Jul 22vs L5.08855111
L5.08855111Jul 17vs L5.18265222
L5.18265222Jul 8@ L6.09474233
L6.09474233Jul 3vs W3.0*5312100
W3.0*5312100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs COL5.11.785.04.72.7(3)
at COL5.00.903.53.52.5(2)
Gabriel Hughes
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR—
home starts5.02.675.55.01.5(2)
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · COL
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 0-4 in Gabriel Hughes's last 4 starts.
- COL are 0-2 in Gabriel Hughes's last 2 home starts.
- COL average 1.5 runs/game in Gabriel Hughes's last 4 starts.
- COL average 1.0 runs/game in Gabriel Hughes's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 2.91 (elite)ERA 3.782d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 5.32 (poor)ERA 5.802d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph ENE
APF 113 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- COL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.32 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- TBR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- COL bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: 2026-07-20: 7 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- COL — Gabriel Hughes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-03 — may affect pitch count or availability
- COL — Gabriel Hughes: last start: 76 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 113) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
AI Analysis
Coors Field (APF 113) strongly favors the over, and both starters have elevated recent ERAs (Peralta 5.85, Hughes 4.05). However, Peralta has a strong historical edge at Coors specifically (0.90 ERA in 2gs at this park, 1.78 ERA vs COL over 3gs) — a significant disqualifying factor for a simple over bet. The total is set at O11.0/U10.5 (a split line), reflecting market uncertainty. COL bullpen xERA 5.32 disqualifies full-game ML/spread for COL. Hughes's last start was only 76 pitches (short outing/early hook concern) and Peralta's BB% 13.4% adds chaos. Too many conflicting signals for a high-confidence play.
SDP @ ARI9:40 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
SDP @ ARIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Randy Vasquez R
xERA2.87 (elite)K%5.9 (poor)HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%3.6 (elite)ERA3.38IP/gs8.0 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs40BB%8.8
ARI vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%16.6 (above avg)HH%40.5 (above avg)
E. Rodriguez L
xERA2.99 (elite)K%12.7 (below avg)HH%23.2 (elite)Barrel%3.6 (elite)ERA3.78IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs90BB%8.5
SDP vs LHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%24.3 (below avg)HH%52.9 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+105-1.5 (+172)O9.0 (-102)ARI-112+1.5 (-197)U9.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+114+0.5 (-130)O5.5 (+112)ARI-138-0.5 (+100)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USDPO4.5 (+110)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)ARIO4.5 (+104)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URandy Vasquez2.5 (+130 / -166)11.5 (-184 / +138)E. Rodriguez3.5 (-160 / +140)17.5 (-154 / +132)
Randy Vasquez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30vs L4.2*6513100
L4.2*6513100Jul 25@ W2.23701211
W2.23701211Jul 22@ L0.2*1914022
L0.2*1914022Jul 19@ W3.0*3223000
W3.0*3223000Jul 2@ L3.05007144
L3.05007144E. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29@ W8.010525100
W8.010525100Jul 24@ W6.09847322
W6.09847322Jul 19vs W2.26837255
W2.26837255Jul 10@ W6.08757122
W6.08757122Jul 5vs L6.010235022
L6.010235022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Randy Vasquez
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI4.14.391.05.04.0(1)
at ARI—
E. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP5.08.104.57.01.5(2)
home starts5.14.742.35.70.7(3)
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 3-4 vs ARI this season (7 games).
- SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 2-3 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-3 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 6.6 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 6.4 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 4-3 vs SDP this season (7 games).
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-2 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 5.0 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 4.8 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.16 (elite)ERA 3.632d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 3.44 (good)ERA 5.492d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 6
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: small sample (8.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- SDP bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-30, 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: last start: 37 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- ARI — E. Rodriguez: last start: 105 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- ARI — E. Rodriguez: 2026-07-19: 5 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 20) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters are severely struggling in their last 3 starts (Vasquez recent ERA 12.00 over only 6.2 IP total — tiny, alarming sample with injury concern flags; Rodriguez recent ERA 5.70). However, Vasquez's extreme short outings (bullpen appearances, last start 37 pitches) and the injury concern flag make this game too unpredictable to bet any total or side confidently. The over would normally be tempting (two struggling starters, ARI wRC+ 109, total 9.0), but Vasquez's situation is too murky and SDP's bullpen is elite (xERA 2.16), which could suppress the total. Not enough clarity.
DET @ SEA✓9:40 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
DET @ SEA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Troy Melton R
xERA3.69 (good)K%26.8 (good)HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%4.8 (elite)ERA1.53IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs92BB%14.1
SEA vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Emerson Hancock R
xERA2.69 (elite)K%18.5 (avg)HH%46.3 (poor)Barrel%4.9 (elite)ERA3.55IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs69BB%5.6
DET vs RHP
wRC+165 (elite)K%17.7 (above avg)HH%39.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET+111-1.5 (+164)O8.0 (-102)SEA-118-1.5 (+168)U7.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET+100+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+100)SEA-124-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)SEAO3.5 (-136)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTroy Melton5.5 (+110 / -139)17.5 (-121 / -110)Emerson Hancock5.5 (+124 / +125)16.5 (-125 / -101)
Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs W7.09253200
W7.09253200Jul 23vs W5.09055422
W5.09055422Jul 17@ W5.29494411
W5.29494411Jul 8vs W5.19194101
W5.19194101Jul 1@ W6.18472100
W6.18472100Emerson Hancock · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29@ L5.09258133
L5.09258133Jul 22vs L6.09535122
L6.09535122Jul 12@ W1.21920100
W1.21920100Jul 5vs W7.09252200
W7.09252200Jun 28@ L5.29865311
L5.29865311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Emerson Hancock
IPERAKHBB
vs DET0.2270.000.07.01.0(1)
home starts6.03.484.73.71.7(3)
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-1 vs SEA this season (3 games).
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 5-0 in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 4-1 in Troy Melton's last 5 away starts.
- DET average 6.4 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.4 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 1-2 vs DET this season (3 games).
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 2-3 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 3-2 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 4.4 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 3.2 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.91 (avg)ERA 4.062d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 4.542d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
76°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph N
APF 92 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 3
- DET — Troy Melton: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- SEA — Emerson Hancock: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SEA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
Troy Melton o5.5 Ks (-115)
Troy Melton is on a scorching hot streak: recent ERA 0.55, averaging 8.3 K/start over his last 3 (9K, 9K, 7K). His K% is 26.8% and xERA 3.69 (good baseline). Today he faces SEA, whose K% vs RHP is 22.6% — roughly in line with recent opponents, no major downgrade needed. Adjusted K projection remains in the 7–8 K range. The 5.5 line is well below that (over 1.5 Ks below adjusted expectation). He's been pitching 5.2–6.1 IP per start with pitch counts in the low-to-mid 90s, so workload supports accumulating Ks. A slight concern is his BB% of 14.1% (command issues) which could limit efficiency, but his recent dominance overrides that concern. T-Mobile Park (APF 92) is a pitcher's park, supporting the under lean but the K prop is independent of that.
DET @ SEA u7.5 (-105)
Two elite starters in terrific recent form: Troy Melton (recent ERA 0.55, avg 8.3 K/start last 3) and Emerson Hancock (recent ERA 0.67, avg 4.3 K/start last 3). Melton's xERA is 3.69 (good) but his recent form screams ace. Hancock's xERA is 2.69 (elite) and he's been untouchable lately. T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly (APF 92). SEA's offense is below average (wRC+ 91 L12). DET is elite offensively (wRC+ 165) but that's the one concern — however, Hancock has shown the ability to limit even good lineups (5K vs TOR, 6K vs CLE recently). Both bullpens are average (DET xERA 3.91, SEA xERA 3.90) — not elite, but the starters should go deep given recent form. Under signals: both starters in elite recent form, pitcher-friendly park, one cold offense. The 7.5 line feels like it respects the DET offense but not enough the quality of both pitchers.