MLB Game Overviews

Friday, July 31, 2026

Updated 15:53 UTC · Odds Updated 15:51 UTC

AI Picks · 7 Bets · Jul 31
STL @ TOR u7.5 (-105)
Elite pitching matchup with both starters in dominant form. Dylan Cease has an xERA of 2.03 (elite), recent ERA 1.88, avg 10.0 K/start, and dominated STL in prior meeting (0.00 ERA, 9 Ks). Kyle Leahy has an xERA of 2.84 (elite), recent ERA 0.69 HOT — both are on great recent runs. STL offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 76 L12), and TOR is below avg (wRC+ 81). STL averages only 2.4 RS in Leahy's recent starts. Both bullpens are decent (STL xERA 3.66, TOR xERA 3.54). The only concern is Leahy's high pitch count last start (102) and Cease's (120 last start) — both could be on shorter leashes, but the quality replacements from the pens still support an under. At 7.5 with this pitching, the market line appears generous. At least 3 under signals align strongly.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
Dylan Cease o7.5 Ks (-128) (-128)
Cease's recent avg is 10.0 K/start (8 starts of dominance — 11K, 9K, 10K in last 3). STL has a low K% (17.9%) vs RHP, which is actually contact-oriented — a note of caution, but his prior start vs STL yielded 9 Ks in 5 innings. His xERA is 2.03 with K% 36.7% — elite strikeout profile. Adjusted for STL's lower K rate (17.9% vs the ~23-26% teams he's been facing), scaling back slightly from 10.0, but STL's K% is still meaningful and Cease's raw K rate is so high that adjusted expectation is still ~8.5-9 Ks. The -128 price is steep but the adjusted expectation is 1+ K above the line. Cease went 0.00 ERA / 9 Ks vs STL in one prior start. The concern is a possible early hook after 120 pitches last outing — if he's limited to 5 innings he could still get 7-8 Ks. Medium confidence given the pricing and workload concern.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
CHW @ TBR u8.5 (-119)
Nick Martinez is elite — xERA 1.64, ERA 0.69, recent ERA 2.34, 6.5 IP/gs avg, and a 0.00 ERA vs CHW in 1 prior start (7 IP). His matchup history at home is strong (1.66 ERA in 3 home starts). CHW offense is below avg vs RHP (wRC+ 86 L12). TBR bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.53). Erick Fedde is struggling recently (ERA 5.40 recent, HH% 57%) but CHW's bullpen is also decent (xERA 3.13). TBR offense is average (wRC+ 107). TBR in last 5 home starts with Martinez: 5-0, avg only 4.8 RS, so even TBR's offense hasn't run wild. The total at 8.5 seems appropriate but Martinez's elite profile and elite bullpen cover the back end. CHW averages 9.6 RS in Fedde's starts (run support, but their own scoring has been higher). Pricing at -119 is reasonable for a one-sided pitching edge. Under signal: Martinez's elite xERA, CHW cold offense, TBR elite bullpen. Disqualifier check: No rain, no NO STATS pitchers. Medium confidence due to Fedde's struggles potentially giving up TBR runs and boosting total, but Martinez + elite TBR pen limits damage.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
WSN ML +108 (+108)
Massive pitching mismatch favoring WSN. Foster Griffin is elite right now: recent ERA 0.95, HOT, with a 2.25 ERA and 6.0 IP/gs in 2 career starts vs ATL, and a 0.00 ERA at Truist Park. Bryce Elder is in freefall — recent ERA 10.29, STRUGGLING, with 49% HH% and 17% Barrel%, and a 6.00 ERA at home this season. WSN's offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 153 L12), runs 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 starts with 6.2 RS average and 7.0 RS away. Elder has a big xERA vs ERA gap (xERA 6.03, season ERA only 3.60) — the market is underestimating Elder's true run risk. ATL's offense vs LHP is only average (wRC+ 95). WSN gets a clean +108 with all factors aligned: dominant hot starter, catastrophic opposing starter, elite offense.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
WSN Team Total o4.5 (+106)
Independent offensive edge from WSN's attack vs Elder. WSN is wRC+ 153 vs RHP in L12 — elite. Elder's xERA is 6.03 (true quality very poor), Barrel% 17%, HH% 49%, and recent ERA 10.29. Even adjusting for matchup history (Elder is 3.28 ERA vs WSN in 3 prior starts — more favorable, but those were likely better days), the current form is alarming. WSN averaging 7.0 RS in away games in Griffin's recent starts. At +106, this is excellent value on the strongest offensive edge of the card today.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
Nathan Eovaldi Ks o6.5 (+122) (+122)
Eovaldi has elite recent K numbers (10K, 9K, 9K in last 3 starts) averaging 9.3 K/start. His K% is 28.2%. HOU's K% vs RHP is 22.7%, which is above average and supports high K totals. His matchup history at this park is exceptional (0.63 ERA, 7.1 IP/gs in 2 starts), suggesting he goes deep. Calibrating for HOU's 22.7% K rate (moderate), adjusted expectation is ~8.0–8.5 Ks. The line is only 6.5 at +122 — that's outstanding value. The only concern is the TEX bullpen being fresh (may hook early), but his recent 7-inning outing and high pitch counts suggest the manager keeps him in. This is a line that significantly undervalues his current trajectory.
Found at 11:53 AM ET
ATH Team Total o4.5 (-110)
ATH offense (wRC+ 126 vs RHP L12) faces Casey Mize whose xERA of 3.09 is respectable but who posted a 14.52 ERA in 1 prior start at this park and vs ATH, and ATH has been averaging 7.8 RS at home in Springs' starts. The key edge here is Jeffrey Springs: xERA 6.12, ERA 10.13, recent ERA 9.44 STRUGGLING, Barrel% 12%, 3.6 IP/gs — he'll exit early and hand off to an ATH bullpen (xERA 6.06) that is one of the worst on the board. ATH's offense will feast on Springs and the shoddy pen behind him. The ATH bullpen being bad (disqualifying for ML) is irrelevant for ATH's own team total — they score regardless. Full-game team total is the correct expression.
Found at 6:06 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
NYY @ CHC
2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Will Warren R
xERA7.73 (poor)K%20.0 (avg)HH%53.8 (poor)Barrel%11.5 (below avg)ERA7.27IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs56BB%12.5
CHC vs RHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%23.0 (avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
Shota Imanaga L
xERA3.09 (good)K%18.1 (avg)HH%33.9 (good)Barrel%3.6 (elite)ERA0.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs95BB%4.2
NYY vs LHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%24.9 (below avg)HH%37.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY+138+1.5 (-155)O9.0 (-110)CHC-148-1.5 (+130)U9.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY+124+0.5 (-115)O4.5 (-146)CHC-154-0.5 (-113)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYYO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+110)O2.5 (+130)U2.5 (-166)CHCO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (+105)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWill Warren4.5 (-107 / -102)15.5 (+118 / +124)Shota Imanaga5.5 (-128 / +106)17.5 (-170 / +130)
Will Warren · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26@ PHIL3.06856266
Jul 22vs PITW0.2*1611100
Jul 12@ WSNW5.08324211
Jul 7@ TBRL4.07537266
Jul 1vs DETL5.17975022
Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ PITW6.08444100
Jul 19vs MINW7.09946100
Jul 10@ CINL5.010257111
Jul 4vs STLL4.28684322
Jun 29vs SDPW6.19749022
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Will Warren
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.13.531.06.03.0(1)
at CHC
Shota Imanaga
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY7.01.296.02.01.0(1)
home starts5.82.085.36.31.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 3.212d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 3.88 (avg)ERA 2.832d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Overcast, Wind 12 mph ESE
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 7
  • NYY — Will Warren: small sample (8.2 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • NYY — Will Warren: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • NYY — Will Warren: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • NYY bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CHC bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • NYY — Will Warren: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • NYY — Will Warren: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Shota Imanaga is a clear ace (xERA 3.09, recent ERA 2.94, 1.29 ERA vs NYY) and CHC has a strong offense (wRC+ 129) vs Will Warren who is struggling (xERA 7.73, HH% 54%). CHC ML at -148 is already at our hard pricing limit and above it. F5 ML at -154 also violates our -150 ceiling. No suitable bet type with acceptable odds exists.
PIT @ CIN
6:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Paul Skenes R
xERA2.96 (elite)K%36.6 (elite)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%10.5 (avg)ERA4.08IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs96BB%7.0
CIN vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%26.0 (below avg)HH%38.2 (avg)
Hunter Greene R
xERA3.34 (good)K%29.7 (elite)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA4.42IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs92BB%4.0
PIT vs RHP
wRC+82 (below avg)K%27.9 (below avg)HH%32.3 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT-118-1.5 (+135)O8.0 (-105)CIN+110+1.5 (-154)U8.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-130-0.5 (+108)O3.5 (-130)CIN+108+0.5 (-140)U3.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-140)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)CINO3.5 (-108)U3.5 (-118)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPaul Skenes7.5 (-138 / +120)17.5 (-168 / +126)Hunter Greene7.5 (+120 / -143)17.5 (-154 / +120)
Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs CHCL5.1105116255
Jul 19@ CLEW7.010087211
Jul 12vs MILW5.18273122
Jul 7vs ATLW6.09548122
Jul 1@ PHIL4.08156278
Hunter Greene · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ STLL5.18938267
Jul 19@ COLW6.09474033
Jul 10vs CHCW7.093123100
Jul 4vs BALL3.18977488
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.32.816.34.31.3(3)
at CIN5.50.826.03.51.0(2)
Hunter Greene
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.51.387.53.51.5(2)
home starts5.45.598.75.02.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 3.912d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 4.58 (below avg)ERA 3.202d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph SE
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
  • CIN bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • PIT — Paul Skenes: last start: 105 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • PIT — Paul Skenes: 2026-07-25: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • CIN — Hunter Greene: 2026-07-25: 6 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling in recent form (Skenes recent ERA 6.56, Greene recent ERA 6.15) but the flags note skewed 3-game ERAs with one bad outlier each — true skill is better. Coors-level run environment not present (APF 106). Neither offense is hot (PIT wRC+ 82, CIN wRC+ 83). Mixed signals with no clear dominant angle; game total at 8.0 is fairly priced for the uncertainty.
PHI @ BAL
7:05 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Andrew Painter R
xERA5.57 (poor)K%15.9 (below avg)HH%28.9 (elite)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA13.11IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs9.5PC/gs76BB%11.1
BAL vs RHP
wRC+68 (poor)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%35.7 (avg)
Brandon Young R
xERA2.91 (elite)K%22.8 (avg)HH%42.1 (below avg)Barrel%3.5 (elite)ERA2.21IP/gs6.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs91BB%5.1
PHI vs RHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%28.5 (poor)HH%44.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI+102-1.5 (+154)O8.5 (-118)BAL-112+1.5 (-184)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI+100+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-120)BAL-115-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPHIO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)BALO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Painter3.5 (-157 / +123)14.5 (+126 / -170)Brandon Young4.5 (-130 / +113)17.5 (-107 / -114)
Andrew Painter · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 17vs MIAL2.05636266
Jun 12@ MILL5.0*7836355
Jun 6vs CHWL4.29348266
May 31@ LADL3.18037144
May 24vs CLEL6.18236222
Brandon Young · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs ATLW6.19464211
Jul 19@ HOUW7.09575111
Jul 10vs KCRW7.08558133
Jul 4@ CINW5.010258344
Jun 27vs WSNL5.09387222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Young
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI
home starts6.02.986.36.31.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 4.012d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 1.59 (elite)ERA 2.342d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
87°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph WNW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
  • PHI bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • BAL bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • PHI — Andrew Painter: 44 days since last start (2026-06-17) — may not be fully stretched out
  • PHI — Andrew Painter: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • PHI — Andrew Painter: last start: 56 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Andrew Painter is disqualified — 44 days since last start, recent bullpen appearance, only 56 pitches last outing, high ERA (13.11) and xERA (5.57), and struggling recently. Brandon Young has a good xERA but recent ERA 4.76 and both offenses are cold (PHI wRC+ 75, BAL wRC+ 68 vs RHP). No clear edge; the under is tempting with BAL's elite bullpen but Painter's extreme volatility and short outing risk muddies the waters.
STL @ TOR
7:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kyle Leahy R
xERA2.84 (elite)K%27.8 (good)HH%47.4 (poor)Barrel%7.9 (good)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs80BB%1.8
TOR vs RHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%14.8 (elite)HH%29.9 (poor)
Dylan Cease R
xERA2.03 (elite)K%36.7 (elite)HH%27.3 (elite)Barrel%9.1 (avg)ERA1.69IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs113BB%8.3
STL vs RHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%18.2 (above avg)HH%42.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+166+1.5 (-135)O7.5 (-110)TOR-180-1.5 (+114)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+150+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (+116)TOR-184-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO3.5 (+118)U3.5 (-145)O1.5 (+110)U1.5 (-140)TORO4.5 (+105)U4.5 (-132)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Leahy3.5 (-148 / +131)17.5 (+105 / -123)Dylan Cease7.5 (-128 / +107)17.5 (-166 / +130)
Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs CINL6.010296122
Jul 20@ LAAL6.09543011
Jul 10vs ATLW3.04421000
Jul 4@ CHCW5.07763200
Jun 28vs MIAW5.08752311
Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ BOSW9.0120121300
Jul 20vs TBRL6.010177135
Jul 8@ SFGW8.0118111300
Jul 3@ SEAW7.010293100
Jun 27vs TEXL4.2107104544
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.00.009.01.01.0(1)
home starts5.15.268.34.73.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.06 (avg)ERA 5.202d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 4.092d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph E
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
  • STL — Kyle Leahy: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • STL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • TOR bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • STL — Kyle Leahy: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • STL — Kyle Leahy: low-K outing 2026-07-10 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
  • STL — Kyle Leahy: high-K outing 2026-07-26 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
  • TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 120 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
STL @ TOR u7.5 (-105)
Elite pitching matchup with both starters in dominant form. Dylan Cease has an xERA of 2.03 (elite), recent ERA 1.88, avg 10.0 K/start, and dominated STL in prior meeting (0.00 ERA, 9 Ks). Kyle Leahy has an xERA of 2.84 (elite), recent ERA 0.69 HOT — both are on great recent runs. STL offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 76 L12), and TOR is below avg (wRC+ 81). STL averages only 2.4 RS in Leahy's recent starts. Both bullpens are decent (STL xERA 3.66, TOR xERA 3.54). The only concern is Leahy's high pitch count last start (102) and Cease's (120 last start) — both could be on shorter leashes, but the quality replacements from the pens still support an under. At 7.5 with this pitching, the market line appears generous. At least 3 under signals align strongly.
Dylan Cease o7.5 Ks (-128) (-128)
Cease's recent avg is 10.0 K/start (8 starts of dominance — 11K, 9K, 10K in last 3). STL has a low K% (17.9%) vs RHP, which is actually contact-oriented — a note of caution, but his prior start vs STL yielded 9 Ks in 5 innings. His xERA is 2.03 with K% 36.7% — elite strikeout profile. Adjusted for STL's lower K rate (17.9% vs the ~23-26% teams he's been facing), scaling back slightly from 10.0, but STL's K% is still meaningful and Cease's raw K rate is so high that adjusted expectation is still ~8.5-9 Ks. The -128 price is steep but the adjusted expectation is 1+ K above the line. Cease went 0.00 ERA / 9 Ks vs STL in one prior start. The concern is a possible early hook after 120 pitches last outing — if he's limited to 5 innings he could still get 7-8 Ks. Medium confidence given the pricing and workload concern.
ARI @ CLE
7:10 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mitch Bratt L
xERA4.91 (below avg)K%10.9 (poor)HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%10.6 (avg)ERA7.11IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs78BB%14.1
CLE vs LHP
wRC+61 (poor)K%20.4 (avg)HH%16.7 (poor)
Tanner Bibee R
xERA2.88 (elite)K%16.2 (below avg)HH%26.7 (elite)Barrel%3.3 (elite)ERA2.89IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs99BB%8.8
ARI vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%16.6 (above avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+126+1.5 (-172)O8.5 (-115)CLE-138-1.5 (+151)U8.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+110+0.5 (-132)O4.5 (-138)CLE-138-0.5 (+102)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO3.5 (-136)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)CLEO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMitch Bratt3.5 (-143 / +120)Tanner Bibee4.5 (+107 / -130)17.5 (-140 / +113)
Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ WSNL5.09237555
Jul 20vs ATHL4.28448122
Jul 12@ LADW3.05803333
Jun 24@ STLW3.05432211
Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ TBRL6.010759233
Jul 20vs MINW6.09556122
Jul 11@ MIAW6.29435411
Jul 5vs CHWL4.06216166
Jun 30vs TEXL7.09125023
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.26.925.07.01.0(1)
home starts5.75.292.75.70.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.15 (avg)ERA 5.362d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 2.42 (elite)ERA 3.352d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
82°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph NNE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • ARI — Mitch Bratt: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • ARI bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • CLE bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CLE — Tanner Bibee: last start: 107 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling in recent form (Bratt xERA 4.91/recent ERA 5.29, Bibee recent ERA 4.71 with command issues), but Bibee is a sharp talent with elite xERA and the matchup is complicated by Bibee's poor recent starts and high pitch counts; the total at 8.5 is fairly priced for this mixed signal game, and no clear directional edge justifies a bet.
CHW @ TBR
7:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Erick Fedde R
xERA3.96 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%57.1 (poor)Barrel%11.4 (below avg)ERA3.65IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs62BB%4.2
TBR vs RHP
wRC+111 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%34.2 (below avg)
Nick Martinez R
xERA1.64 (elite)K%12.5 (below avg)HH%19.5 (elite)Barrel%2.4 (elite)ERA0.69IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs79BB%2.1
CHW vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%24.7 (below avg)HH%36.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+122+1.5 (-182)O8.5 (+100)TBR-132-1.5 (+155)U8.5 (-119)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+124+0.5 (-125)O4.5 (-120)TBR-145-0.5 (-104)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+108)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)TBRO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UErick Fedde3.5 (+130 / -157)Nick Martinez4.5 (+116 / -137)17.5 (-112 / -117)
Erick Fedde · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs HOUW4.16825133
Jul 20@ TEXW4.06464022
Jul 11vs ATHW4.0*5532100
Jul 5@ CLEW5.1*8948123
Jun 30@ BALW5.09035333
Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs CLEW6.08454000
Jul 20@ TORW6.08206111
Jul 10vs SEAW5.17014122
Jul 3@ HOUW5.18533111
Jun 26vs ARIW5.28536011
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW7.00.003.02.00.0(1)
home starts5.41.663.04.70.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 2.91 (elite)ERA 3.242d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 2.24 (elite)ERA 1.812d stress Stressed (7.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Dome
Flags · 5
  • CHW — Erick Fedde: HH% 57% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CHW bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • TBR bullpen stressed (7.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CHW — Erick Fedde: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-11, 2026-07-05 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • CHW — Erick Fedde: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
CHW @ TBR u8.5 (-119)
Nick Martinez is elite — xERA 1.64, ERA 0.69, recent ERA 2.34, 6.5 IP/gs avg, and a 0.00 ERA vs CHW in 1 prior start (7 IP). His matchup history at home is strong (1.66 ERA in 3 home starts). CHW offense is below avg vs RHP (wRC+ 86 L12). TBR bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.53). Erick Fedde is struggling recently (ERA 5.40 recent, HH% 57%) but CHW's bullpen is also decent (xERA 3.13). TBR offense is average (wRC+ 107). TBR in last 5 home starts with Martinez: 5-0, avg only 4.8 RS, so even TBR's offense hasn't run wild. The total at 8.5 seems appropriate but Martinez's elite profile and elite bullpen cover the back end. CHW averages 9.6 RS in Fedde's starts (run support, but their own scoring has been higher). Pricing at -119 is reasonable for a one-sided pitching edge. Under signal: Martinez's elite xERA, CHW cold offense, TBR elite bullpen. Disqualifier check: No rain, no NO STATS pitchers. Medium confidence due to Fedde's struggles potentially giving up TBR runs and boosting total, but Martinez + elite TBR pen limits damage.
MIA @ NYM
7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Janson Junk R
xERA3.65 (good)K%22.9 (avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA5.27IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs78BB%11.5
NYM vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%26.8 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Freddy Peralta R
xERA3.69 (good)K%22.4 (avg)HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%7.0 (good)ERA7.24IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs97BB%13.4
MIA vs RHP
wRC+117 (above avg)K%26.3 (below avg)HH%44.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+112+1.5 (-192)O8.5 (-105)NYM-122-1.5 (+160)U8.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+102+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-120)NYM-128-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+110)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)NYMO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJanson Junk3.5 (-157 / +126)15.5 (-130 / -102)Freddy Peralta5.5 (+114 / -138)
Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs SDPL4.27567011
Jul 20@ HOUL4.08035366
Jul 9vs SEAW5.07953412
May 25@ TORW5.09338011
May 20vs ATLL5.08638088
Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs LADW4.09336223
Jul 20@ MILL5.110768277
Jul 11vs BOSL4.19263522
Jul 6@ ATLW4.210366113
Jul 1@ TORL4.09147355
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.45.007.77.01.7(3)
home starts4.42.714.74.72.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 4.31 (avg)ERA 6.522d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 1.99 (elite)ERA 1.412d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph SE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 5
  • NYM — Freddy Peralta: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • MIA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • MIA — Janson Junk: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • MIA — Janson Junk: 2026-07-20: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • NYM — Freddy Peralta: 2026-07-20: 7 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling recently (Junk recent ERA 6.00, Peralta recent ERA 5.85) but both have their 3-game ERAs skewed by one bad outing. NYM bullpen is exceptional (xERA 1.99) but Peralta's command issues (BB% 13%) create uncertainty. MIA bullpen is poor (xERA 4.31). Mixed signals; no clear directional edge with sufficient confidence to warrant a bet.
WSN @ ATL
7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Foster Griffin L
xERA3.67 (good)K%10.5 (poor)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA2.45IP/gs7.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs101BB%3.5
ATL vs LHP
wRC+84 (below avg)K%21.3 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)
Bryce Elder R
xERA6.03 (poor)K%23.4 (good)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%17.1 (poor)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs81BB%10.9
WSN vs RHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%39.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+106-1.5 (+164)O9.0 (-114)ATL-116+1.5 (-190)U9.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN-118-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-128)ATL-106+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)ATLO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFoster Griffin4.5 (-148 / +119)17.5 (-149 / +112)Bryce Elder4.5 (+116 / -136)16.5 (-123 / -105)
Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs ARIW6.210826133
Jul 19@ ATHW7.09728111
Jul 8vs HOUW7.09995011
Jul 3vs PITW5.08324111
Jun 27@ BALW7.011293201
Bryce Elder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ BALL5.09884412
Jul 20vs SDPW6.07745122
Jul 9@ PITW4.06935234
Jun 27@ SFGL4.06945155
Jun 21vs MILL6.095612288
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Foster Griffin
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL6.02.254.54.01.0(2)
at ATL6.00.006.03.01.0(1)
Bryce Elder
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN6.43.285.74.71.0(3)
home starts6.06.004.76.31.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 4.502d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 4.63 (below avg)ERA 5.402d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
90°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
  • ATL — Bryce Elder: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • ATL — Bryce Elder: Barrel% 17% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • WSN bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • WSN — Foster Griffin: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • WSN — Foster Griffin: high-K outing 2026-07-08 (9 Ks vs avg 4.3) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
  • WSN — Foster Griffin: recent opponents high-K: HOU 26%, ATH 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
WSN ML +108 (+108)
Massive pitching mismatch favoring WSN. Foster Griffin is elite right now: recent ERA 0.95, HOT, with a 2.25 ERA and 6.0 IP/gs in 2 career starts vs ATL, and a 0.00 ERA at Truist Park. Bryce Elder is in freefall — recent ERA 10.29, STRUGGLING, with 49% HH% and 17% Barrel%, and a 6.00 ERA at home this season. WSN's offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 153 L12), runs 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 starts with 6.2 RS average and 7.0 RS away. Elder has a big xERA vs ERA gap (xERA 6.03, season ERA only 3.60) — the market is underestimating Elder's true run risk. ATL's offense vs LHP is only average (wRC+ 95). WSN gets a clean +108 with all factors aligned: dominant hot starter, catastrophic opposing starter, elite offense.
WSN Team Total o4.5 (+106)
Independent offensive edge from WSN's attack vs Elder. WSN is wRC+ 153 vs RHP in L12 — elite. Elder's xERA is 6.03 (true quality very poor), Barrel% 17%, HH% 49%, and recent ERA 10.29. Even adjusting for matchup history (Elder is 3.28 ERA vs WSN in 3 prior starts — more favorable, but those were likely better days), the current form is alarming. WSN averaging 7.0 RS in away games in Griffin's recent starts. At +106, this is excellent value on the strongest offensive edge of the card today.
TEX @ HOU
8:15 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Nathan Eovaldi R
xERA3.11 (good)K%28.2 (elite)HH%46.7 (poor)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)ERA4.24IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs90BB%7.0
HOU vs RHP
wRC+102 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)
Hunter Brown R
xERA3.74 (good)K%20.8 (avg)HH%43.2 (below avg)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA3.57IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs93BB%15.3
TEX vs RHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%25.5 (below avg)HH%38.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+112+1.5 (-198)O7.5 (-110)HOU-122-1.5 (+172)U7.5 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-106+0.5 (-160)O3.5 (-146)HOU-115-0.5 (+122)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (-106)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)HOUO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+105)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNathan Eovaldi6.5 (+122 / +124)18.5 (+130 / -155)Hunter Brown6.5 (+120 / +124)17.5 (-140 / +110)
Nathan Eovaldi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs SEAW7.09183111
Jul 19@ ATLL4.08126244
Jul 9vs LAAW6.099106234
Jul 2vs DETW5.08596133
Jun 26@ TORW7.09295100
Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ CHWW7.09072000
Jul 19vs BALL4.29243644
Jul 10@ TEXL6.09844533
Jul 4vs TBRW4.08236467
Jun 28@ DETW6.010345223
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nathan Eovaldi
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU7.12.557.34.71.7(3)
at HOU7.10.638.05.01.5(2)
Hunter Brown
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX5.73.716.74.33.3(3)
home starts4.57.394.74.04.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.35 (good)ERA 4.532d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 3.23 (good)ERA 3.082d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
  • TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • HOU — Hunter Brown: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • TEX bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: 2026-07-19: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: low-K outing 2026-07-19 (2 Ks vs avg 6.7) — stuff was flat that day
  • HOU — Hunter Brown: 2026-07-19: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Nathan Eovaldi Ks o6.5 (+122) (+122)
Eovaldi has elite recent K numbers (10K, 9K, 9K in last 3 starts) averaging 9.3 K/start. His K% is 28.2%. HOU's K% vs RHP is 22.7%, which is above average and supports high K totals. His matchup history at this park is exceptional (0.63 ERA, 7.1 IP/gs in 2 starts), suggesting he goes deep. Calibrating for HOU's 22.7% K rate (moderate), adjusted expectation is ~8.0–8.5 Ks. The line is only 6.5 at +122 — that's outstanding value. The only concern is the TEX bullpen being fresh (may hook early), but his recent 7-inning outing and high pitch counts suggest the manager keeps him in. This is a line that significantly undervalues his current trajectory.
KCR @ COL
8:40 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael Wacha R
xERA4.23 (avg)K%18.5 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA1.93IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs99BB%7.4
COL vs RHP
wRC+71 (poor)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Tomoyuki Sugano R
xERA6.93 (poor)K%14.3 (below avg)HH%43.1 (below avg)Barrel%15.5 (poor)ERA6.48IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs85BB%2.9
KCR vs RHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%42.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR-106-1.5 (+135)O11.5 (+102)COL-102+1.5 (-156)U11.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR-115-0.5 (+108)O5.5 (-144)COL-104+0.5 (-140)U5.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO5.5 (-113)U5.5 (-110)O2.5 (-135)U2.5 (+105)COLO5.5 (+104)U5.5 (-130)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Wacha4.5 (+110 / -120)17.5 (-128 / +130)Tomoyuki Sugano3.5 (-102 / -125)15.5 (-106 / -125)
Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ DETW7.09636222
Jul 20vs SFGW6.09653211
Jul 9@ NYML4.210456366
Jul 4vs PHIL6.010578144
Jun 27@ CHWL7.210576111
Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24@ MILW5.19356122
Jul 18vs CINW6.17736033
Jun 26@ MINL5.08528177
Jun 20vs PITW6.08554011
Jun 14@ ATHW5.09728268
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tomoyuki Sugano
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.52.434.04.51.5(2)
home starts5.73.683.75.30.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 5.10 (below avg)ERA 5.172d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 4.91 (below avg)ERA 5.402d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
90°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph ENE
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
  • COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.10 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • KCR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • KCR — Michael Wacha: 2026-07-09: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: 2026-06-26: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
AI Analysis
Coors Field (APF 115) game with both bullpens poor (KCR xERA 5.10, COL xERA 4.91) and a total set at O11.5/U11.0 — the market already fully prices in the Coors effect. Sugano is terrible but Wacha is erratic; over 11.5 at +102 is tempting but both offensive teams are not elite (KCR wRC+ 97, COL wRC+ 71), and the market has already adjusted the line significantly upward. Insufficient edge over the inflated total.
MIL @ LAA
9:38 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Shane Drohan L
xERA2.55 (elite)K%28.0 (elite)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%10.2 (avg)ERA5.40IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs88BB%4.0
LAA vs LHP
wRC+98 (avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%27.2 (poor)
Ryan Johnson R
xERA4.74 (below avg)K%17.0 (avg)HH%20.0 (elite)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA8.10IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs78BB%11.9
MIL vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%21.6 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-156-1.5 (+100)O9.0 (-109)LAA+144+1.5 (-110)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-164-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-140)LAA+130+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMILO4.5 (-140)U4.5 (+110)O2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-110)LAAO3.5 (-122)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShane Drohan5.5 (-127 / +105)17.5 (-108 / -120)Ryan Johnson4.5 (+127 / -146)15.5 (+134 / +130)
Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24vs COLL6.09266255
Jul 18vs MIAW6.09095133
Jul 11@ PITL6.18365033
Jul 6@ STLW6.08526213
Jul 1vs CINW5.27876122
Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ SFGL3.16948188
Jul 19vs DETW5.09152311
Jul 11@ MINL5.07513333
Jul 5vs BOSL4.08766125
Jun 29@ SEAL5.08134013
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Johnson
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL
home starts5.01.806.33.01.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 4.01 (avg)ERA 4.532d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.92 (elite)ERA 2.962d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
  • MIL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • LAA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • MIL — Shane Drohan: 2026-07-24: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: 2026-07-25: 8 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 23) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Shane Drohan has elite xERA (2.55) but a high ERA (5.40) suggesting luck gap in the wrong direction from a market perspective; recent ERA 3.12 is solid. Ryan Johnson's numbers are skewed by one bad outing. MIL ML is -156, violating our -150 pricing ceiling. No alt bet meets the confidence threshold — the team total and F5 markets are also priced expensively.
DET @ ATH
9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ty Madden R
xERA2.06 (elite)K%29.6 (elite)HH%14.3 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA1.29IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs1.0PC/gs44BB%18.5
ATH vs RHP
wRC+123 (above avg)K%16.0 (above avg)HH%36.9 (avg)
Jeffrey Springs L
xERA6.12 (poor)K%11.5 (poor)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA10.13IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs69BB%11.5
DET vs LHP
wRC+34 (poor)K%25.2 (below avg)HH%39.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-132-1.5 (+112)O11.0 (-103)ATH+122+1.5 (-125)U11.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-142-0.5 (-110)O6.5 (+110)ATH+120+0.5 (-118)U6.5 (-144)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO5.5 (-122)U5.5 (-104)O2.5 (-145)U2.5 (+114)ATHO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UTy MaddenJeffrey Springs4.5 (+130 / -155)
Ty Madden · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs BALW2.0*2720000
Jul 26vs KCRL1.2*3010100
Jul 21@ CHCL3.1*7551411
Jun 12@ CLEL2.0*2931000
Jun 10vs MINL0.2*2111122
Jeffrey Springs · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26@ MINL1.13604145
Jul 20@ ARIW5.07826122
Jul 8@ DETL4.19246466
Jun 30vs LADL5.19228466
Jun 25@ SFGW5.18763233
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jeffrey Springs
IPERAKHBB
vs DET4.56.923.55.03.0(2)
home starts4.113.173.76.32.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 4.18 (avg)ERA 4.002d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 5.61 (poor)ERA 5.362d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
96°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph SW
APF 109 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 12
  • DET — Ty Madden: small sample (7.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • DET — Ty Madden: BB% 19% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • ATH — Jeffrey Springs: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • ATH — Jeffrey Springs: avg 3.6 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
  • ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.61 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • DET bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • ATH bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • DET — Ty Madden: 60 days since last start (2026-06-01) — may not be fully stretched out
  • DET — Ty Madden: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-28, 2026-07-26 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • DET — Ty Madden: last start: 48 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • ATH — Jeffrey Springs: last start: 36 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 109) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
ATH Team Total o4.5 (-110)
ATH offense (wRC+ 126 vs RHP L12) faces Casey Mize whose xERA of 3.09 is respectable but who posted a 14.52 ERA in 1 prior start at this park and vs ATH, and ATH has been averaging 7.8 RS at home in Springs' starts. The key edge here is Jeffrey Springs: xERA 6.12, ERA 10.13, recent ERA 9.44 STRUGGLING, Barrel% 12%, 3.6 IP/gs — he'll exit early and hand off to an ATH bullpen (xERA 6.06) that is one of the worst on the board. ATH's offense will feast on Springs and the shoddy pen behind him. The ATH bullpen being bad (disqualifying for ML) is irrelevant for ATH's own team total — they score regardless. Full-game team total is the correct expression.
SFG @ SDP
9:45 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
C. Whisenhunt L
xERA5.15 (below avg)K%19.4 (avg)HH%41.3 (below avg)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA4.60IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs83BB%11.9
SDP vs LHP
wRC+89 (below avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%50.5 (elite)
Bradgley Rodriguez
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
SFG
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+128+1.5 (-170)O8.5 (-114)SDP-138-1.5 (+142)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+114+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (-138)SDP-142-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+105)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)SDPO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UC. Whisenhunt3.5 (-150 / +120)15.5 (+125 / -157)Bradgley Rodriguez
C. Whisenhunt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs LAAL5.07875244
Jul 9vs COLW5.28743422
Jun 17@ ATLW5.08526222
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 3.462d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 2.14 (elite)ERA 3.322d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 7 mph NW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • SDP — Bradgley Rodriguez: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • SDP bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SFG — C. Whisenhunt: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • SFG — C. Whisenhunt: 2026-07-26: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Bradgley Rodriguez has NO STATS — hard disqualifying factor. Cannot handicap SDP's half of any bet. This eliminates game totals, sides, and most props. C. Whisenhunt is below-average (xERA 5.15) with a mixed recent record, but the unknown Rodriguez prevents any bet with confidence.
BOS @ LAD
10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ranger Suarez L
xERA3.13 (good)K%35.2 (elite)HH%38.2 (avg)Barrel%2.9 (elite)ERA4.26IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs71BB%1.8
LAD vs LHP
wRC+48 (poor)K%21.7 (avg)HH%34.1 (below avg)
Edgardo Henriquez
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
BOS
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS+116+1.5 (-185)O8.5 (-105)LAD-125-1.5 (+164)U8.5 (-113)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS+106+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-110)LAD-132-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBOSO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)LADO4.5 (+110)U3.5 (+122)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URanger Suarez4.5 (-130 / +108)15.5 (+144 / -194)Edgardo Henriquez
Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs TORW4.06464000
Jul 5@ LAAW2.25356033
Jun 29vs WSNW6.09585133
Jun 24@ COLL6.010297113
Jun 19@ SEAW6.29451300
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ranger Suarez
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD6.04.505.07.02.0(1)
at LAD6.04.505.07.02.0(1)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.00 (good)ERA 1.942d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 5.10 (below avg)ERA 5.612d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
  • LAD — Edgardo Henriquez: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • LAD bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.10 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • BOS bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • BOS — Ranger Suarez: last start: 64 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • BOS — Ranger Suarez: 2026-07-05: 3 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • BOS — Ranger Suarez: recent opponents high-K: LAA 26%, TOR 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Edgardo Henriquez has NO STATS — this is a hard disqualifying factor. Cannot handicap the LAD half of any total or side bet. Ranger Suarez is hot but LAD offense is cold (wRC+ 48 vs LHP), and BOS bullpen is excellent. However, the NO STATS rule prevents any full-game total bet, and the unknowable LAD starter side eliminates confidence.
MIN @ SEA
10:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zebby Matthews R
xERA4.94 (below avg)K%11.3 (poor)HH%29.6 (elite)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA8.40IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs94BB%11.3
SEA vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%20.1 (avg)HH%35.8 (avg)
Bryce Miller R
xERA3.93 (avg)K%11.7 (poor)HH%37.7 (avg)Barrel%4.9 (elite)ERA6.19IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs87BB%7.8
MIN vs RHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%42.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+152+1.5 (-146)O7.5 (-110)SEA-166-1.5 (+128)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+144+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (-110)SEA-175-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO3.5 (+110)U3.5 (-135)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)SEAO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZebby Matthews4.5 (-128 / +110)17.5 (-148 / +115)Bryce Miller5.5 (+100 / -120)17.5 (-152 / +114)
Zebby Matthews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24vs ATHL6.09213322
Jul 19@ CHCL3.087493810
Jul 10vs LAAL6.010239244
Jul 4@ NYYW4.27953444
Jun 29@ HOUW7.08974111
Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24@ TEXL5.18906155
Jul 17vs SFGL5.29167123
Jul 9@ MIAL5.08139446
Jul 2vs LAAW7.09082000
Jun 25@ PITL5.290115033
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zebby Matthews
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA7.05.147.06.01.0(1)
at SEA7.05.147.06.01.0(1)
Bryce Miller
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN4.06.752.05.01.0(1)
home starts5.71.577.04.00.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.55 (good)ERA 3.382d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 2.39 (elite)ERA 2.372d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
79°F, Clear, Wind 3 mph NNW
APF 92 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 2
  • MIN — Zebby Matthews: 2026-07-19: 8 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 24) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • SEA — Bryce Miller: recent opponents high-K: MIA 26%, TEX 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Bryce Miller has a promising recent ERA (3.66) but season ERA (6.19) vs xERA (3.93) with cold offenses on both sides. SEA ML is -166, well above our pricing ceiling. The total at 7.5 is interesting but SEA's awful run support (avg 2.0 RS in recent starts, 1.4 at home) and Miller's inconsistency don't provide a clean under edge with confidence.