MLB Game Overviews

Tuesday, June 23, 2026 · Updated 20:27 UTC · Odds 4:27 PM ET

HOU @ TOR
4:07 PM · Rogers Centre (Roof Open)
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalHOU+130+1.5 (-170)O8.5 (-105)TOR-154-1.5 (+141)U8.5 (-109)
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Peter Lambert RvsTOR
SPRHPxERA / wRC+2.52122 (above avg)K%20.8 (avg)19.3 (above avg)HH%32.7 (good)36.1 (avg)Barrel%9.6 (avg)—
ERA 1.93 · 6.2 IP/gs · BB% 5.6
Shane Bieber RvsHOU
SPRHPxERA / wRC+?119 (above avg)K%?21.1 (avg)HH%?41.6 (above avg)
—
Bullpens · last 12
HOU
xERA 3.17 (good)ERA 3.09K% 24.2BB% 8.4HH% 38.7Brrl% 7.6
TOR
xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 3.17K% 17.6BB% 12.1HH% 31.1Brrl% 4.8
Weather
78°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 9 mph NNW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags
  • HOU — Peter Lambert: high LOB% 100% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • TOR — Shane Bieber: no stats — likely TBD or skipping this start
  • HOU — Peter Lambert: low pitch count last start (11 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • TOR — Shane Bieber: low pitch count last start (19 pitches) — may have been managing something
NYY @ DET
6:40 PM · Comerica Park
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Carlos Rodon LvsDET
SPLHPxERA / wRC+3.7191 (below avg)K%30.0 (elite)25.2 (below avg)HH%47.6 (poor)39.4 (avg)Barrel%9.5 (avg)—
ERA 3.71 · 5.7 IP/gs · BB% 10.0
Casey Mize RvsNYY
SPRHPxERA / wRC+2.83127 (above avg)K%22.0 (avg)22.6 (avg)HH%29.5 (elite)38.5 (avg)Barrel%6.8 (good)—
ERA 2.93 · 5.1 IP/gs · BB% 3.4
Bullpens · last 12
NYY
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 3.12K% 23.6BB% 8.4HH% 34.5Brrl% 8.4
DET
xERA 3.16 (good)ERA 1.88K% 23.2BB% 7.3HH% 37.8Brrl% 5.0
Weather
76°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph NE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags
  • NYY — Carlos Rodon: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 48%)
  • DET — Casey Mize: missed a turn (18-day gap between starts)
KCR @ TBR
6:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalKCR+123+1.5 (-194)O7.5 (-108)TBR-138-1.5 (+172)U7.5 (-105)
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Luinder Avila RvsTBR
SPRHPxERA / wRC+3.90125 (above avg)K%16.3 (below avg)19.7 (above avg)HH%29.4 (elite)36.8 (avg)Barrel%5.9 (good)—
ERA 7.94 · 3.8 IP/gs · BB% 14.3
Shane McClanahan LvsKCR
SPLHPxERA / wRC+4.40123 (above avg)K%24.6 (good)19.8 (above avg)HH%50.0 (poor)46.5 (elite)Barrel%7.5 (good)—
ERA 7.11 · 4.2 IP/gs · BB% 12.3
Bullpens · last 12
KCR
xERA 4.52 (below avg)ERA 4.24K% 16.8BB% 11.9HH% 39.9Brrl% 8.7
TBR
xERA 4.07 (avg)ERA 4.24K% 22.5BB% 8.7HH% 36.2Brrl% 7.8
Weather
90°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph W
APF 96 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags
  • KCR — Luinder Avila: small sample (11.1 IP over 3 starts)
  • KCR — Luinder Avila: ERA 7.94 >> xERA 3.90 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • KCR — Luinder Avila: poor K-BB% 2% — limited command/stuff separation
  • KCR — Luinder Avila: averaging only 3.8 IP/start — heavy bullpen usage
  • TBR — Shane McClanahan: small sample (12.2 IP over 3 starts)
  • TBR — Shane McClanahan: ERA 7.11 >> xERA 4.40 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • TBR — Shane McClanahan: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 50%)
  • KCR — Luinder Avila: 2026-06-12: 8 ER in just 0.2 IP is inflating 3-game xERA — other 2 starts averaged 1.77 ERA equiv
TEX @ MIA
6:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Cal Quantrill RvsMIA
SPRHPxERA / wRC+7.96106 (avg)K%8.0 (poor)22.2 (avg)HH%50.0 (poor)39.5 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)—
ERA 11.57 · 4.2 IP (3gs) · BB% 4.0
Sandy Alcantara RvsTEX
SPRHPxERA / wRC+3.04116 (above avg)K%24.1 (good)20.4 (avg)HH%33.9 (good)41.3 (above avg)Barrel%3.4 (elite)—
ERA 2.57 · 7.0 IP/gs · BB% 3.6
Bullpens · last 12
TEX
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 4.98K% 20.8BB% 5.9HH% 34.0Brrl% 4.9
MIA
xERA 2.59 (elite)ERA 1.85K% 26.0BB% 6.8HH% 37.1Brrl% 6.5
Weather
82°F, Thunderstorm, Wind 7 mph W
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags
  • TEX — Cal Quantrill: tiny sample (4.2 IP over 3 starts) — xERA is unreliable
  • TEX — Cal Quantrill: ERA 11.57 >> xERA 7.96 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • TEX — Cal Quantrill: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 50%)
  • TEX — Cal Quantrill: poor K-BB% 4% — limited command/stuff separation
  • TEX — Cal Quantrill: low pitch count last start (36 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • MIA — Sandy Alcantara: high pitch count last start (102 pitches) — monitor workload today
SEA @ PIT
6:40 PM · PNC Park
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
George Kirby RvsPIT
SPRHPxERA / wRC+3.74134 (elite)K%26.7 (good)23.8 (avg)HH%41.2 (below avg)42.1 (above avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)—
ERA 5.63 · 5.3 IP/gs · BB% 5.3
Mitch Keller RvsSEA
SPRHPxERA / wRC+6.6869 (poor)K%19.2 (avg)23.8 (avg)HH%51.1 (poor)38.4 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)—
ERA 9.64 · 4.7 IP/gs · BB% 15.1
Bullpens · last 12
SEA
xERA 3.01 (good)ERA 5.08K% 25.7BB% 9.5HH% 39.8Brrl% 6.5
PIT
xERA 4.71 (below avg)ERA 6.55K% 20.3BB% 12.4HH% 38.5Brrl% 7.0
Weather
75°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 9 mph NW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: ERA 9.64 >> xERA 6.68 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 51%)
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: poor K-BB% 4% — limited command/stuff separation
  • SEA bullpen: bullpen ERA 5.08 >> xERA 3.01 — may be getting unlucky
PHI @ WSN
6:45 PM · Nationals Park
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalPHI-131-1.5 (+123)O9.5 (-102)WSN+116+1.5 (-142)U9.5 (+100)
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Jesus Luzardo LvsWSN
SPLHPxERA / wRC+3.45164 (elite)K%23.8 (good)16.4 (above avg)HH%35.3 (avg)45.6 (elite)Barrel%7.8 (good)—
ERA 3.86 · 6.2 IP/gs · BB% 10.0
Zack Littell RvsPHI
SPRHPxERA / wRC+7.47121 (above avg)K%11.3 (poor)26.4 (below avg)HH%47.6 (poor)38.9 (avg)Barrel%11.9 (below avg)—
ERA 7.71 · 3.9 IP/gs · BB% 7.5
Bullpens · last 12
PHI
xERA 3.82 (avg)ERA 4.84K% 23.0BB% 6.1HH% 36.9Brrl% 8.1
WSN
xERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 5.11K% 17.4BB% 9.5HH% 37.1Brrl% 6.3
Weather
72°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph NNW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags
  • PHI — Jesus Luzardo: high LOB% 88% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • WSN — Zack Littell: small sample (11.2 IP over 3 starts)
  • WSN — Zack Littell: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 48%)
  • WSN — Zack Littell: poor K-BB% 4% — limited command/stuff separation
  • WSN — Zack Littell: averaging only 3.9 IP/start — heavy bullpen usage
  • PHI — Jesus Luzardo: high pitch count last start (106 pitches) — monitor workload today
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly conditions (adj factor 102) — adjust pitcher xERA expectations up
CHC @ NYM
7:10 PM · Citi Field
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalCHC-106-1.5 (+152)O8.5 (-105)NYM-105+1.5 (-175)U8.5 (-109)
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Edward Cabrera RvsNYM
SPRHPxERA / wRC+5.2395 (avg)K%23.3 (good)25.6 (below avg)HH%53.7 (poor)38.5 (avg)Barrel%14.6 (below avg)—
ERA 10.13 · 4.4 IP/gs · BB% 8.3
Kodai Senga RvsCHC
SPRHPxERA / wRC+6.05109 (avg)K%18.0 (avg)20.7 (avg)HH%26.7 (elite)36.5 (avg)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)—
ERA 11.70 · 3.3 IP/gs · BB% 20.0
Bullpens · last 12
CHC
xERA 4.04 (avg)ERA 4.44K% 21.2BB% 10.1HH% 37.5Brrl% 6.2
NYM
xERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 4.25K% 21.8BB% 5.6HH% 38.1Brrl% 9.7
Weather
70°F, Overcast, Wind 2 mph W
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: ERA 10.13 >> xERA 5.23 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 54%)
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: low LOB% 48% — ERA penalized by bad sequencing
  • NYM — Kodai Senga: small sample (10.0 IP over 3 starts)
  • NYM — Kodai Senga: ERA 11.70 >> xERA 6.05 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • NYM — Kodai Senga: poor K-BB% -2% — limited command/stuff separation
  • NYM — Kodai Senga: averaging only 3.3 IP/start — heavy bullpen usage
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: missed a turn (16-day gap between starts)
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: low pitch count last start (67 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • NYM — Kodai Senga: missed a turn (51-day gap between starts)
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly conditions (adj factor 100) — adjust pitcher xERA expectations up
  • WEATHER: rain chance 29%
MIL @ CIN
7:10 PM · Great American Ball Park
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Brandon Sproat RvsCIN
SPRHPxERA / wRC+3.8974 (poor)K%18.6 (avg)28.3 (poor)HH%44.2 (below avg)31.6 (below avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)—
ERA 4.91 · 4.9 IP/gs · BB% 8.5
Nick Lodolo LvsMIL
SPLHPxERA / wRC+5.83108 (avg)K%13.2 (below avg)24.7 (below avg)HH%39.0 (avg)43.4 (above avg)Barrel%3.4 (elite)—
ERA 7.80 · 5.0 IP/gs · BB% 5.3
Bullpens · last 12
MIL
xERA 2.78 (elite)ERA 4.54K% 28.4BB% 9.7HH% 31.2Brrl% 8.3
CIN
xERA 2.68 (elite)ERA 2.58K% 17.9BB% 10.3HH% 32.4Brrl% 5.8
Weather
78°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph NNW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags
  • MIL — Brandon Sproat: low pitch count last start (65 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • MIL — Brandon Sproat: 2026-06-17: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) is inflating 3-game xERA — other 2 starts averaged 3.45 ERA equiv
CLE @ CHW
7:40 PM · Rate Field
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Parker Messick LvsCHW
SPLHPxERA / wRC+3.1998 (avg)K%23.3 (good)30.7 (poor)HH%36.7 (avg)45.5 (elite)Barrel%8.2 (avg)—
ERA 4.67 · 5.8 IP/gs · BB% 9.6
Sean Burke RvsCLE
SPRHPxERA / wRC+4.69108 (avg)K%30.9 (elite)29.4 (poor)HH%41.7 (below avg)39.0 (avg)Barrel%13.9 (below avg)—
ERA 4.60 · 15.7 IP/gs · BB% 16.2
Bullpens · last 12
CLE
xERA 4.27 (avg)ERA 4.50K% 24.7BB% 11.1HH% 35.6Brrl% 5.9
CHW
xERA 4.80 (below avg)ERA 4.34K% 21.5BB% 11.9HH% 38.6Brrl% 7.0
Weather
66°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph NE
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags
  • CHW — Sean Burke: high LOB% 94% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • CHW — Sean Burke: 2026-06-13: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) is inflating 3-game xERA — other 2 starts averaged 2.17 ERA equiv
LAD @ MIN
7:40 PM · Target Field
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalLAD-176-1.5 (-102)O9.0 (-101)MIN+149+1.5 (-112)U9.0 (-120)
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Justin Wrobleski LvsMIN
SPLHPxERA / wRC+4.73107 (avg)K%15.2 (below avg)18.4 (above avg)HH%55.6 (poor)37.4 (avg)Barrel%7.4 (good)—
ERA 2.16 · 5.6 IP/gs · BB% 3.0
TBD vsLAD
SPLHPxERA / wRC+?64 (poor)K%?22.0 (avg)HH%?39.0 (avg)
—
Bullpens · last 12
LAD
xERA 3.00 (good)ERA 4.07K% 22.9BB% 11.4HH% 32.2Brrl% 9.6
MIN
xERA 3.92 (avg)ERA 6.58K% 25.7BB% 12.0HH% 37.7Brrl% 9.6
Weather
65°F, Heavy Rain, Wind 4 mph NNE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (73%)
Flags
  • LAD — Justin Wrobleski: ERA 2.16 << xERA 4.73 — overperforming; regression risk
  • LAD — Justin Wrobleski: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 56%)
  • LAD — Justin Wrobleski: high LOB% 92% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • MIN — TBD: no stats — likely TBD or skipping this start
  • MIN bullpen: bullpen ERA 6.58 >> xERA 3.92 — may be getting unlucky
  • LAD — Justin Wrobleski: low pitch count last start (67 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly conditions (adj factor 104) — adjust pitcher xERA expectations up
  • WEATHER: rain risk (73%) — possible delay or postponement
ARI @ STL
7:45 PM · Busch Stadium
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalARI-104-1.5 (+164)O8.5 (-107)STL-112+1.5 (-194)U8.5 (-106)
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
E. Rodriguez LvsSTL
SPLHPxERA / wRC+5.69113 (avg)K%19.4 (avg)14.0 (elite)HH%35.6 (avg)43.1 (above avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)—
ERA 3.38 · 5.3 IP/gs · BB% 13.4
Kyle Leahy RvsARI
SPRHPxERA / wRC+4.5681 (below avg)K%20.0 (avg)18.8 (above avg)HH%54.2 (poor)36.6 (avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)—
ERA 6.00 · 5.0 IP/gs · BB% 6.2
Bullpens · last 12
ARI
xERA 4.52 (below avg)ERA 3.77K% 20.4BB% 10.5HH% 40.7Brrl% 9.8
STL
xERA 5.60 (poor)ERA 5.98K% 16.5BB% 9.3HH% 49.2Brrl% 14.4
Weather
82°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph ENE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags
  • ARI — E. Rodriguez: high LOB% 92% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • STL — Kyle Leahy: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 54%)
  • STL bullpen: bullpen is a liability (xERA 5.60)
BOS @ COL
8:40 PM · Coors Field
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalBOS-162-1.5 (-104)O10.5 (-116)COL+144+1.5 (-105)U10.5 (+100)
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Sonny Gray RvsCOL
SPRHPxERA / wRC+2.69141 (elite)K%18.2 (avg)18.4 (above avg)HH%46.7 (poor)39.6 (avg)Barrel%3.3 (elite)—
ERA 3.26 · 6.4 IP/gs · BB% 3.9
Sean Sullivan LvsBOS
SPLHPxERA / wRC+1.78176 (elite)K%11.4 (poor)22.6 (avg)HH%28.6 (elite)33.3 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)—
ERA 10.29 · 3.5 IP/gs · BB% 5.7
Bullpens · last 12
BOS
xERA 2.85 (elite)ERA 3.57K% 19.2BB% 3.4HH% 28.8Brrl% 5.4
COL
xERA 5.46 (poor)ERA 4.01K% 17.6BB% 12.4HH% 45.7Brrl% 7.0
Weather
84°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph ENE
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags
  • BOS — Sonny Gray: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 47%)
  • BOS — Sonny Gray: high LOB% 91% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • COL — Sean Sullivan: tiny sample (7.0 IP over 3 starts) — xERA is unreliable
  • COL — Sean Sullivan: ERA 10.29 >> xERA 1.78 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • COL — Sean Sullivan: averaging only 3.5 IP/start — heavy bullpen usage
  • COL bullpen: bullpen is a liability (xERA 5.46)
  • COL — Sean Sullivan: 2026-06-17: 8 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) is inflating 3-game xERA — other start averaged 0.00 ERA equiv
  • WEATHER: extreme hitter's park (adj factor 115) — xERAs will play higher than usual
BAL @ LAA
9:38 PM · Angel Stadium
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalBAL+104-1.5 (+155)O9.5 (-105)LAA-116-1.5 (+159)U9.5 (-115)
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Shane Baz RvsLAA
SPRHPxERA / wRC+5.54131 (elite)K%16.7 (below avg)24.0 (below avg)HH%40.7 (below avg)38.4 (avg)Barrel%6.8 (good)—
ERA 3.06 · 5.9 IP/gs · BB% 6.4
Ryan Johnson RvsBAL
SPRHPxERA / wRC+6.22118 (above avg)K%8.7 (poor)26.6 (below avg)HH%38.5 (avg)43.0 (above avg)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)—
ERA 13.00 · 9.0 IP/gs · BB% 6.5
Bullpens · last 12
BAL
xERA 4.10 (avg)ERA 3.48K% 19.7BB% 9.2HH% 40.6Brrl% 9.9
LAA
xERA 3.53 (good)ERA 3.86K% 23.8BB% 11.1HH% 35.5Brrl% 6.6
Weather
73°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: small sample (9.0 IP over 3 starts)
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: ERA 13.00 >> xERA 6.22 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: poor K-BB% 2% — limited command/stuff separation
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: low LOB% 40% — ERA penalized by bad sequencing
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: missed a turn (46-day gap between starts)
ATL @ SDP
9:40 PM · Petco Park
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalATL-126-1.5 (+135)O7.5 (-105)SDP+112+1.5 (-156)U7.5 (-105)
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
JR Ritchie RvsSDP
SPRHPxERA / wRC+4.64102 (avg)K%21.3 (avg)24.6 (below avg)HH%47.5 (poor)38.9 (avg)Barrel%7.5 (good)—
ERA 7.07 · 7.0 IP/gs · BB% 9.8
German Marquez RvsATL
SPRHPxERA / wRC+5.2852 (poor)K%13.0 (below avg)24.7 (below avg)HH%39.2 (avg)37.9 (avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)—
ERA 5.94 · 5.6 IP/gs · BB% 11.6
Bullpens · last 12
ATL
xERA 3.39 (good)ERA 1.41K% 26.5BB% 11.0HH% 39.6Brrl% 2.7
SDP
xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 2.51K% 23.6BB% 9.5HH% 39.7Brrl% 4.5
Weather
72°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WNW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags
  • ATL — JR Ritchie: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 48%)
  • SDP — German Marquez: poor K-BB% 1% — limited command/stuff separation
  • ATL — JR Ritchie: missed a turn (25-day gap between starts)
  • SDP — German Marquez: 2026-05-01: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) is inflating 3-game xERA — other 2 starts averaged 3.00 ERA equiv
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly conditions (adj factor 98) — adjust pitcher xERA expectations up
ATH @ SFG
9:45 PM · Oracle Park
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalATH-120-1.5 (+140)O8.0 (-115)SFG+109+1.5 (-168)U8.0 (-103)
Matchup · SP last 3 starts / lineup last 12
Aaron Civale RvsSFG
SPRHPxERA / wRC+8.87107 (avg)K%9.5 (poor)18.6 (above avg)HH%48.1 (poor)38.1 (avg)Barrel%21.1 (poor)—
ERA 13.50 · 4.0 IP/gs · BB% 7.9
Robbie Ray LvsATH
SPLHPxERA / wRC+3.90144 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)23.1 (avg)HH%34.1 (good)36.1 (avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)—
ERA 3.68 · 4.9 IP/gs · BB% 10.9
Bullpens · last 12
ATH
xERA 3.25 (good)ERA 7.06K% 23.7BB% 7.0HH% 37.7Brrl% 7.8
SFG
xERA 5.11 (below avg)ERA 4.62K% 20.8BB% 7.9HH% 39.7Brrl% 12.4
Weather
61°F, Overcast, Wind 12 mph W
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: small sample (12.0 IP over 3 starts)
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: ERA 13.50 >> xERA 8.87 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 48%)
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: elevated Barrel% 21%
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: poor K-BB% 2% — limited command/stuff separation
  • ATH bullpen: bullpen ERA 7.06 >> xERA 3.25 — may be getting unlucky
  • SFG bullpen: bullpen is a liability (xERA 5.11)
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: missed a turn (23-day gap between starts)
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: low pitch count last start (71 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly conditions (adj factor 97) — adjust pitcher xERA expectations up