MLB Game Overviews

AI Picks · 12 Bets · Jul 31

Nathan Eovaldi Ks o6.5 (+122) (+122)

Eovaldi has elite recent K numbers (10K, 9K, 9K in last 3 starts) averaging 9.3 K/start. His K% is 28.2%. HOU's K% vs RHP is 22.7%, which is above average and supports high K totals. His matchup history at this park is exceptional (0.63 ERA, 7.1 IP/gs in 2 starts), suggesting he goes deep. Calibrating for HOU's 22.7% K rate (moderate), adjusted expectation is ~8.0–8.5 Ks. The line is only 6.5 at +122 — that's outstanding value. The only concern is the TEX bullpen being fresh (may hook early), but his recent 7-inning outing and high pitch counts suggest the manager keeps him in. This is a line that significantly undervalues his current trajectory.

Found at 11:53 AM ET

ATH Team Total o4.5 (-110)

ATH offense (wRC+ 126 vs RHP L12) faces Casey Mize whose xERA of 3.09 is respectable but who posted a 14.52 ERA in 1 prior start at this park and vs ATH, and ATH has been averaging 7.8 RS at home in Springs' starts. The key edge here is Jeffrey Springs: xERA 6.12, ERA 10.13, recent ERA 9.44 STRUGGLING, Barrel% 12%, 3.6 IP/gs — he'll exit early and hand off to an ATH bullpen (xERA 6.06) that is one of the worst on the board. ATH's offense will feast on Springs and the shoddy pen behind him. The ATH bullpen being bad (disqualifying for ML) is irrelevant for ATH's own team total — they score regardless. Full-game team total is the correct expression.

Found at 6:06 AM ET

TEX ML (+112)

Compound edge favoring Texas. Eovaldi brings a dominant recent form (recent ERA ~3.00, xERA 3.11) with exceptional history at Daikin Park (0.63 ERA, 7.1 IP/gs) and vs HOU (2.55 ERA, 7.3 K/gs). Meanwhile Hunter Brown is struggling badly: recent ERA 6.19, 4.0 IP/gs in his worst start, 7.39 ERA at home in his last 3 home starts, and his BB% is a concerning 15.3%. TEX offense is hot (wRC+ 118 in L12 vs RHP) and averaging 6.8 RS in Eovaldi's recent starts. Both bullpens are solid (TEX xERA 3.35, HOU xERA 3.23), supporting a full-game ML. Getting TEX at +112 with a clearly superior starter and a hot offense against a struggling home pitcher is genuine value — the market seems to be weighting HOU's home field more heavily than the actual pitching matchup warrants.

Found at 7:33 PM ET

ARI ML +126 (+126)

Bibee is struggling recently (recent ERA 4.71, 6ER in one start vs CHW) and has a poor history vs ARI (6.92 ERA in 1gs, 5.29 ERA at home over 3gs). ARI offense is strong vs RHP (wRC+ 121). Bratt is a concern but ARI bullpen is reasonably fresh and the CLE pen has been stressed (5 IP yesterday). CLE is 3-7 in their L10 with only 2-3 in Bibee's last 5 starts. At +126, ARI has clear value as the underdog here.

Found at 5:00 PM ET

KCR @ COL o11.0 (-105)

Classic Coors Field demolition setup. Sugano's xERA is 6.93 — among the worst in baseball — with a 15.5% barrel rate and a recent ERA of 7.88 (and the 7 ER blowup start noted as an outlier, but his other start gave 6 ER too). Wacha's recent ERA of 5.69 with a 4.23 xERA shows a pitcher currently struggling. Both bullpens are shaky (KCR xERA 5.10, COL xERA 4.91). Coors Field at APF 115 is the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. COL is averaging 9.6 RS in their last 5 home starts in Sugano's starts. Wacha has never faced COL or pitched at Coors, removing any edge from familiarity. Both offenses are capable of scoring here — KCR's offense is avg (wRC+ 97) but Coors inflates everything. The 11.0 total accounts for Coors but still looks low given two struggling pitchers and two leaky bullpens. Getting the over at -105 on 11.0 is reasonable.

Found at 7:33 PM ET

MIL Team Total o5.5 (+110)

Milwaukee's offense is hot (wRC+ 121 in L12 vs RHP) facing Ryan Johnson, who has a 4.74 xERA, an 8.10 ERA, and averages only 4.4 IP/gs. Johnson's recent ERA of 3.86 looks better but is flagged — a 23 ERA-equivalent blowup start is excluded, and his most recent start was only 69 pitches (short outing concern). His K% is just 17.0% with an 11.9% walk rate, suggesting trouble putting hitters away. Once Johnson exits, LAA's bullpen (xERA 2.92) is elite — but that just means MIL needs to score their runs early. With a hot offense vs a vulnerable starter, MIL scoring 5+ runs is very achievable. Getting +110 on MIL Over 5.5 is excellent value — we're betting the offense, not the outcome, which removes bullpen dependency concerns.

Found at 7:33 PM ET

DET @ ATH o10.5 (+102)

Every major over signal fires here. Both starters are poor: Holton's xERA is 5.82 with only 3 total IP across 3 relief-style appearances (likely short outing again), and Springs' xERA is 6.12 with a recent ERA of 9.44 — actively struggling RIGHT NOW. Springs averages just 3.6 IP/gs, meaning Oakland's hideous bullpen (xERA 5.61) enters early. DET's bullpen is also elevated at xERA 4.18. Springs has a 13.17 ERA at home in his last 3 home starts. Hitter-friendly park (APF 110) adds another boost. ATH averages 7.8 RS at home in Springs' recent home starts. The market has set the alt total at 11.0 (-105) / 10.5 (+102) — taking the +102 on the lower number is excellent value given how chaotic both pitching staffs are. Multiple disqualifying factors for any 'under' play (bad starters, bad bullpens, hitter-friendly park).

Found at 7:33 PM ET

Games In Progress / Completed

STL @ TOR u7.5 (-105)

Elite pitching matchup with both starters in dominant form. Dylan Cease has an xERA of 2.03 (elite), recent ERA 1.88, avg 10.0 K/start, and dominated STL in prior meeting (0.00 ERA, 9 Ks). Kyle Leahy has an xERA of 2.84 (elite), recent ERA 0.69 HOT — both are on great recent runs. STL offense is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 76 L12), and TOR is below avg (wRC+ 81). STL averages only 2.4 RS in Leahy's recent starts. Both bullpens are decent (STL xERA 3.66, TOR xERA 3.54). The only concern is Leahy's high pitch count last start (102) and Cease's (120 last start) — both could be on shorter leashes, but the quality replacements from the pens still support an under. At 7.5 with this pitching, the market line appears generous. At least 3 under signals align strongly.

Found at 6:06 AM ET

Dylan Cease o7.5 Ks (-128) (-128)

Cease's recent avg is 10.0 K/start (8 starts of dominance — 11K, 9K, 10K in last 3). STL has a low K% (17.9%) vs RHP, which is actually contact-oriented — a note of caution, but his prior start vs STL yielded 9 Ks in 5 innings. His xERA is 2.03 with K% 36.7% — elite strikeout profile. Adjusted for STL's lower K rate (17.9% vs the ~23-26% teams he's been facing), scaling back slightly from 10.0, but STL's K% is still meaningful and Cease's raw K rate is so high that adjusted expectation is still ~8.5-9 Ks. The -128 price is steep but the adjusted expectation is 1+ K above the line. Cease went 0.00 ERA / 9 Ks vs STL in one prior start. The concern is a possible early hook after 120 pitches last outing — if he's limited to 5 innings he could still get 7-8 Ks. Medium confidence given the pricing and workload concern.

Found at 6:06 AM ET

CHW @ TBR u8.5 (-119)

Nick Martinez is elite — xERA 1.64, ERA 0.69, recent ERA 2.34, 6.5 IP/gs avg, and a 0.00 ERA vs CHW in 1 prior start (7 IP). His matchup history at home is strong (1.66 ERA in 3 home starts). CHW offense is below avg vs RHP (wRC+ 86 L12). TBR bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.53). Erick Fedde is struggling recently (ERA 5.40 recent, HH% 57%) but CHW's bullpen is also decent (xERA 3.13). TBR offense is average (wRC+ 107). TBR in last 5 home starts with Martinez: 5-0, avg only 4.8 RS, so even TBR's offense hasn't run wild. The total at 8.5 seems appropriate but Martinez's elite profile and elite bullpen cover the back end. CHW averages 9.6 RS in Fedde's starts (run support, but their own scoring has been higher). Pricing at -119 is reasonable for a one-sided pitching edge. Under signal: Martinez's elite xERA, CHW cold offense, TBR elite bullpen. Disqualifier check: No rain, no NO STATS pitchers. Medium confidence due to Fedde's struggles potentially giving up TBR runs and boosting total, but Martinez + elite TBR pen limits damage.

Found at 6:06 AM ET

WSN ML +108 (+108)

Massive pitching mismatch favoring WSN. Foster Griffin is elite right now: recent ERA 0.95, HOT, with a 2.25 ERA and 6.0 IP/gs in 2 career starts vs ATL, and a 0.00 ERA at Truist Park. Bryce Elder is in freefall — recent ERA 10.29, STRUGGLING, with 49% HH% and 17% Barrel%, and a 6.00 ERA at home this season. WSN's offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 153 L12), runs 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 starts with 6.2 RS average and 7.0 RS away. Elder has a big xERA vs ERA gap (xERA 6.03, season ERA only 3.60) — the market is underestimating Elder's true run risk. ATL's offense vs LHP is only average (wRC+ 95). WSN gets a clean +108 with all factors aligned: dominant hot starter, catastrophic opposing starter, elite offense.

Found at 6:06 AM ET

WSN Team Total o4.5 (+106)

Independent offensive edge from WSN's attack vs Elder. WSN is wRC+ 153 vs RHP in L12 — elite. Elder's xERA is 6.03 (true quality very poor), Barrel% 17%, HH% 49%, and recent ERA 10.29. Even adjusting for matchup history (Elder is 3.28 ERA vs WSN in 3 prior starts — more favorable, but those were likely better days), the current form is alarming. WSN averaging 7.0 RS in away games in Griffin's recent starts. At +106, this is excellent value on the strongest offensive edge of the card today.

Found at 6:06 AM ET

AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice

NYY @

CHC

2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldRainy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Will Warren R

xERA7.73 (poor)K%20.0 (avg)HH%53.8 (poor)Barrel%11.5 (below avg)ERA7.27IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs57BB%12.5

CHC vs RHP

wRC+129 (above avg)K%23.0 (avg)HH%37.9 (avg)

Shota Imanaga L

xERA3.09 (good)K%18.1 (avg)HH%33.9 (good)Barrel%3.6 (elite)ERA0.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs95BB%4.2

NYY vs LHP

wRC+81 (below avg)K%24.9 (below avg)HH%37.2 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalNYY+134+1.5 (-163)O9.0 (-115)CHC-148-1.5 (+138)U9.0 (-103)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalNYY+124+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-138)CHC-156-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (+106)

Team Totals

OverUnderNYYO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-140)CHCO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (+100)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UWill Warren4.5 (-128 / +108)15.5 (+113 / -150)Shota Imanaga5.5 (-136 / +108)18.5 (+123 / +155)

Will Warren · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31@

W6.28874000

Jul 26@

L3.06856266

Jul 22vs

W0.2*1611100

Jul 12@

W5.08324211

Jul 7@

L4.07537266

Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31vs

L6.210164022

Jul 25@

W6.08444100

Jul 19vs

W7.09946100

Jul 10@

L5.010257111

Jul 4vs

L4.28684322

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Will Warren

IPERAKHBB

vs CHC5.71.594.05.01.5(2)

at CHC6.20.007.04.00.0(1)

Shota Imanaga

IPERAKHBB

vs NYY6.62.056.03.00.5(2)

home starts5.82.076.04.71.3(3)

Trends · NYY

NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
NYY are 1-4 in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
NYY are 2-3 in Will Warren's last 5 away starts.
NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
NYY average 4.4 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 away starts.

Trends · CHC

CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
CHC are 3-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
CHC are 4-1 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
CHC average 4.8 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
CHC average 5.0 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

NYY

xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 3.212d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

CHC

xERA 3.88 (avg)ERA 2.832d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)

Weather · Rainy

77°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph SSE

APF 97 — Neutral · Rain possible (4%)

Flags · 8

NYY — Will Warren: small sample (8.2 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
NYY — Will Warren: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
NYY — Will Warren: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
NYY bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
CHC bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
NYY — Will Warren: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
NYY — Will Warren: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
WEATHER: rain risk 4% — game delay or conditions may affect performance

PIT @

CIN

6:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Paul Skenes R

xERA2.96 (elite)K%36.6 (elite)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%10.5 (avg)ERA4.08IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs97BB%7.0

CIN vs RHP

wRC+83 (below avg)K%26.0 (below avg)HH%38.2 (avg)

Hunter Greene R

xERA3.34 (good)K%29.7 (elite)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA4.42IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs84BB%4.0

PIT vs RHP

wRC+82 (below avg)K%27.9 (below avg)HH%32.3 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalPIT+328+1.5 (+122)O13.5 (+110)CIN-380-2.5 (+120)U12.5 (+116)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalPIT-140-0.5 (+106)O3.5 (-128)CIN+112+0.5 (-138)U3.5 (-102)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-140)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)CINO3.5 (-102)U3.5 (-125)O1.5 (-105)U1.5 (-125)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UPaul Skenes8.5 (+119 / +105)17.5 (-171 / +140)Hunter Greene7.5 (+122 / -149)—

Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31@

L3.18756433

Jul 25vs

L5.1105116255

Jul 19@

W7.010087211

Jul 12vs

W5.18273122

Jul 7vs

W6.09548122

Hunter Greene · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31vs

L4.07035233

Jul 25@

L5.18938267

Jul 19@

W6.09474033

Jul 10vs

W7.093123100

Jul 4vs

L3.18977488

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Paul Skenes

IPERAKHBB

vs CIN4.45.505.75.02.7(3)

at CIN4.72.555.74.32.0(3)

Hunter Greene

IPERAKHBB

vs PIT5.72.656.04.01.7(3)

home starts4.77.027.35.02.3(3)

Trends · PIT

PIT are 6-4 vs CIN this season (10 games).
PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
PIT are 3-2 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
PIT are 1-4 in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
PIT average 7.8 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
PIT average 5.0 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.

Trends · CIN

CIN are 4-6 vs PIT this season (10 games).
CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
CIN are 2-2 in Hunter Greene's last 4 starts.
CIN are 1-1 in Hunter Greene's last 2 home starts.
CIN average 4.5 runs/game in Hunter Greene's last 4 starts.
CIN average 4.5 runs/game in Hunter Greene's last 2 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

PIT

xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 3.912d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

CIN

xERA 4.58 (below avg)ERA 3.202d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

86°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph ESE

APF 105 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 4

CIN bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
PIT — Paul Skenes: last start: 105 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
PIT — Paul Skenes: 2026-07-25: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
CIN — Hunter Greene: 2026-07-25: 6 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

PHI @

BAL

7:05 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Andrew Painter R

xERA5.57 (poor)K%15.9 (below avg)HH%28.9 (elite)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA13.11IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs9.5PC/gs51BB%11.1

BAL vs RHP

wRC+68 (poor)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%35.7 (avg)

Brandon Young R

xERA2.91 (elite)K%22.8 (avg)HH%42.1 (below avg)Barrel%3.5 (elite)ERA2.21IP/gs6.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs71BB%5.1

PHI vs RHP

wRC+75 (poor)K%28.5 (poor)HH%44.0 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalPHI+120+1.5 (-186)O11.5 (-102)BAL-135-1.5 (+146)U11.5 (-108)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalPHI+106+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (-114)BAL-132-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-115)

Team Totals

OverUnderPHIO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-135)BALO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Painter——Brandon Young4.5 (-136 / +124)17.5 (-125 / -105)

Andrew Painter · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31@

L1.01812022

Jun 17vs

L2.05636266

Jun 12@

L5.0*7836355

Jun 6vs

L4.29348266

May 31@

L3.18037144

Brandon Young · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31vs

L1.02412122

Jul 25vs

W6.19464211

Jul 19@

W7.09575111

Jul 10vs

W7.08558133

Jul 4@

W5.010258344

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Andrew Painter

IPERAKHBB

vs BAL1.018.001.02.00.0(1)

at BAL1.018.001.02.00.0(1)

Brandon Young

IPERAKHBB

vs PHI1.018.001.02.01.0(1)

home starts4.73.834.04.71.3(3)

Trends · PHI

PHI are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
PHI are 1-4 in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
PHI are 1-4 in Andrew Painter's last 5 away starts.
PHI average 2.8 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
PHI average 2.2 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 away starts.

Trends · BAL

BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.
BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

PHI

xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 4.012d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)

BAL

xERA 1.59 (elite)ERA 2.342d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

84°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 5 mph SSE

APF 106 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 5

PHI bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
BAL bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
PHI — Andrew Painter: 44 days since last start (2026-06-17) — may not be fully stretched out
PHI — Andrew Painter: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
PHI — Andrew Painter: last start: 56 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook

STL @

TOR✓

7:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Kyle Leahy R

xERA2.84 (elite)K%27.8 (good)HH%47.4 (poor)Barrel%7.9 (good)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs72BB%1.8

TOR vs RHP

wRC+81 (below avg)K%14.8 (elite)HH%29.9 (poor)

Dylan Cease R

xERA2.03 (elite)K%36.7 (elite)HH%27.3 (elite)Barrel%9.1 (avg)ERA1.69IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs86BB%8.3

STL vs RHP

wRC+75 (poor)K%18.2 (above avg)HH%42.9 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSTL+190+1.5 (-145)O6.5 (+105)TOR-198-1.5 (+121)U5.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSTL+146+0.5 (-104)O4.5 (+112)TOR-180-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-146)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO3.5 (+112)U3.5 (-135)O1.5 (-105)U1.5 (-125)TORO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UKyle Leahy4.5 (+134 / -166)17.5 (-105 / -109)Dylan Cease7.5 (-128 / +107)18.5 (+120 / -160)

Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31@

L1.01910000

Jul 26vs

L6.010296122

Jul 20@

L6.09543011

Jul 10vs

W3.04421000

Jul 4@

W5.07763200

Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31vs

L2.03630200

Jul 25@

W9.0120121300

Jul 20vs

L6.010177135

Jul 8@

W8.0118111300

Jul 3@

W7.010293100

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Kyle Leahy

IPERAKHBB

vs TOR1.00.001.00.00.0(1)

at TOR1.00.001.00.00.0(1)

Dylan Cease

IPERAKHBB

vs STL3.50.006.00.51.5(2)

home starts4.15.166.73.72.7(3)

Trends · STL

STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
STL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
STL are 3-2 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
STL are 1-4 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 away starts.
STL average 2.4 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
STL average 4.2 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 away starts.

Trends · TOR

TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
TOR are 2-3 in Dylan Cease's last 5 home starts.
TOR average 4.6 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
TOR average 2.6 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

STL

xERA 4.06 (avg)ERA 5.202d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

TOR

xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 4.092d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

78°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph S

APF 104 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 7

STL — Kyle Leahy: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
STL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TOR bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
STL — Kyle Leahy: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
STL — Kyle Leahy: low-K outing 2026-07-10 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
STL — Kyle Leahy: high-K outing 2026-07-26 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 120 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today

STL @ TOR u7.5 (-105)

Dylan Cease o7.5 Ks (-128) (-128)

ARI @

CLE✓

7:10 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Mitch Bratt L

xERA4.91 (below avg)K%10.9 (poor)HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%10.6 (avg)ERA7.11IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs65BB%14.1

CLE vs LHP

wRC+61 (poor)K%20.4 (avg)HH%16.7 (poor)

Tanner Bibee R

xERA2.88 (elite)K%16.2 (below avg)HH%26.7 (elite)Barrel%3.3 (elite)ERA2.89IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs73BB%8.8

ARI vs RHP

wRC+121 (above avg)K%16.6 (above avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalARI+230+1.5 (-102)O8.5 (+103)CLE-270-1.5 (-115)U7.5 (+102)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalARI+110+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-140)CLE-138-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (+108)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO3.5 (-145)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-166)U1.5 (+130)CLEO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UMitch Bratt3.5 (-138 / +108)—Tanner Bibee4.5 (+110 / -140)17.5 (-148 / +112)

Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31@

L1.02001111

Jul 25@

L5.09237555

Jul 20vs

L4.28448122

Jul 12@

W3.05803333

Jun 24@

W3.05432211

Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31vs

W1.21710000

Jul 25@

L6.010759233

Jul 20vs

W6.09556122

Jul 11@

W6.29435411

Jul 5vs

L4.06216166

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Mitch Bratt

IPERAKHBB

vs CLE1.09.000.01.01.0(1)

at CLE1.09.000.01.01.0(1)

Tanner Bibee

IPERAKHBB

vs ARI3.25.623.03.50.5(2)

home starts3.76.432.34.00.7(3)

Trends · ARI

ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
ARI are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
ARI are 2-2 in Mitch Bratt's last 4 starts.
ARI are 2-1 in Mitch Bratt's last 3 away starts.
ARI average 4.8 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 4 starts.
ARI average 5.7 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 3 away starts.

Trends · CLE

CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
CLE are 2-3 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
CLE are 2-3 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
CLE average 5.0 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
CLE average 5.6 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

ARI

xERA 4.15 (avg)ERA 5.362d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)

CLE

xERA 2.42 (elite)ERA 3.352d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Neutral Conditions

80°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph N

APF 100 — Neutral

Flags · 4

ARI — Mitch Bratt: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
ARI bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
CLE bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
CLE — Tanner Bibee: last start: 107 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today

ARI ML +126 (+126)

CHW @

TBR✓

7:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Erick Fedde R

xERA3.96 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%57.1 (poor)Barrel%11.4 (below avg)ERA3.65IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs48BB%4.2

TBR vs RHP

wRC+111 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%34.2 (below avg)

Nick Martinez R

xERA1.64 (elite)K%12.5 (below avg)HH%19.5 (elite)Barrel%2.4 (elite)ERA0.69IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs63BB%2.1

CHW vs RHP

wRC+83 (below avg)K%24.7 (below avg)HH%36.5 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCHW-133-1.5 (+118)O9.5 (+110)TBR+130+1.5 (-145)U9.5 (-126)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCHW+120+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-120)TBR-145-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-108)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)TBRO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UErick Fedde3.5 (+109 / -122)—Nick Martinez4.5 (+118 / -142)17.5 (-103 / -110)

Erick Fedde · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31@

W1.01310000

Jul 26vs

W4.16825133

Jul 20@

W4.06464022

Jul 11vs

W4.0*5532100

Jul 5@

W5.1*8948123

Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31vs

L2.02212022

Jul 25vs

W6.08454000

Jul 20@

W6.08206111

Jul 10vs

W5.17014122

Jul 3@

W5.18533111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Erick Fedde

IPERAKHBB

vs TBR1.00.001.00.00.0(1)

at TBR1.00.001.00.00.0(1)

Nick Martinez

IPERAKHBB

vs CHW4.52.002.02.00.0(2)

home starts4.42.752.33.30.3(3)

Trends · CHW

CHW are 0-3 vs TBR this season (3 games).
CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
CHW are 5-0 in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
CHW are 3-2 in Erick Fedde's last 5 away starts.
CHW average 9.6 runs/game in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
CHW average 7.2 runs/game in Erick Fedde's last 5 away starts.

Trends · TBR

TBR are 3-0 vs CHW this season (3 games).
TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
TBR are 5-0 in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
TBR are 5-0 in Nick Martinez's last 5 home starts.
TBR average 5.2 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
TBR average 4.8 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

CHW

xERA 2.91 (elite)ERA 3.242d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)

TBR

xERA 2.24 (elite)ERA 1.812d stress Stressed (7.3 IP/1g)

Weather · Dome

Flags · 5

CHW — Erick Fedde: HH% 57% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
CHW bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TBR bullpen stressed (7.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
CHW — Erick Fedde: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-11, 2026-07-05 — may affect pitch count or availability
CHW — Erick Fedde: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook

CHW @ TBR u8.5 (-119)

MIA @

NYM

7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Janson Junk R

xERA3.65 (good)K%22.9 (avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA5.27IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs57BB%11.5

NYM vs RHP

wRC+94 (below avg)K%26.8 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)

Kodai Senga R

xERA7.66 (poor)K%23.3 (good)HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%18.8 (poor)ERA10.13IP/gs5.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs25BB%23.3

MIA vs RHP

wRC+117 (above avg)K%26.3 (below avg)HH%44.6 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIA+130+1.5 (-190)O6.5 (-140)NYM-141-1.5 (+149)U6.5 (+110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIA+105+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-122)NYM-128-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-106)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO3.5 (-136)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-166)U1.5 (+130)NYMO4.5 (+120)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UJanson Junk3.5 (-150 / +126)16.5 (+100 / -115)Kodai Senga——

Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31@

L1.01710000

Jul 26vs

L4.27567011

Jul 20@

L4.08035366

Jul 9vs

W5.07953412

May 25@

W5.09338011

Kodai Senga · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31vs

L2.02230000

Jul 18@

L1.1*4523322

Jul 10vs

L1.0*910000

Jul 7vs

L3.0*6145444

Jul 3@

L2.2*4442011

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Janson Junk

IPERAKHBB

vs NYM1.00.001.00.00.0(1)

at NYM1.00.001.00.00.0(1)

Kodai Senga

IPERAKHBB

vs MIA3.74.024.34.01.3(3)

home starts2.00.003.00.00.0(1)

Trends · MIA

MIA are 3-4 vs NYM this season (7 games).
MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 away starts.
MIA average 5.0 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
MIA average 3.6 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 away starts.

Trends · NYM

NYM are 4-3 vs MIA this season (7 games).
NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
NYM are 0-5 in Kodai Senga's last 5 starts.
NYM are 0-4 in Kodai Senga's last 4 home starts.
NYM average 2.6 runs/game in Kodai Senga's last 5 starts.
NYM average 3.0 runs/game in Kodai Senga's last 4 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

MIA

xERA 4.31 (avg)ERA 6.522d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

NYM

xERA 1.99 (elite)ERA 1.412d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)

Weather · Neutral Conditions

77°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph S

APF 101 — Neutral

Flags · 10

NYM — Kodai Senga: small sample (5.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
NYM — Kodai Senga: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
NYM — Kodai Senga: Barrel% 19% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
NYM — Kodai Senga: BB% 23% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
MIA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIA — Janson Junk: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
MIA — Janson Junk: 2026-07-20: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
NYM — Kodai Senga: 38 days since last start (2026-06-23) — may not be fully stretched out
NYM — Kodai Senga: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-18, 2026-07-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
NYM — Kodai Senga: recent opponents high-K: COL 26%, CIN 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups

WSN @

ATL✓

7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Foster Griffin L

xERA3.67 (good)K%10.5 (poor)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA2.45IP/gs7.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs68BB%3.5

ATL vs LHP

wRC+84 (below avg)K%21.3 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)

Bryce Elder R

xERA6.03 (poor)K%23.4 (good)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%17.1 (poor)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs65BB%10.9

WSN vs RHP

wRC+139 (elite)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%39.0 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalWSN+115+1.5 (-183)O8.5 (-106)ATL-130-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (-119)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalWSN-116-0.5 (+118)O4.5 (-128)ATL-108+0.5 (-154)U4.5 (-102)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)ATLO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UFoster Griffin4.5 (-148 / +119)17.5 (-180 / +135)Bryce Elder4.5 (+116 / -136)17.5 (-115 / +100)

Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31@

L0.0*000000

Jul 25vs

W6.210826133

Jul 19@

W7.09728111

Jul 8vs

W7.09995011

Jul 3vs

W5.08324111

Bryce Elder · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31vs

L1.01901100

Jul 25@

L5.09884412

Jul 20vs

W6.07745122

Jul 9@

W4.06935234

Jun 27@

L4.06945155

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Foster Griffin

IPERAKHBB

vs ATL6.02.254.54.01.0(2)

at ATL6.00.006.03.01.0(1)

Bryce Elder

IPERAKHBB

vs WSN4.42.733.33.01.3(3)

home starts4.36.923.36.01.3(3)

Trends · WSN

WSN are 3-5 vs ATL this season (8 games).
WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
WSN are 5-0 in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
WSN are 4-1 in Foster Griffin's last 5 away starts.
WSN average 6.2 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
WSN average 7.0 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 away starts.

Trends · ATL

ATL are 5-3 vs WSN this season (8 games).
ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
ATL are 2-3 in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
ATL are 4-1 in Bryce Elder's last 5 home starts.
ATL average 3.8 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
ATL average 3.8 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

WSN

xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 4.502d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)

ATL

xERA 4.63 (below avg)ERA 5.402d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)

Weather · Neutral Conditions

88°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph WSW

APF 102 — Neutral

Flags · 6

ATL — Bryce Elder: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
ATL — Bryce Elder: Barrel% 17% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
WSN bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
WSN — Foster Griffin: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
WSN — Foster Griffin: high-K outing 2026-07-08 (9 Ks vs avg 4.3) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
WSN — Foster Griffin: recent opponents high-K: HOU 26%, ATH 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups

WSN ML +108 (+108)

WSN Team Total o4.5 (+106)

TEX @

HOU✓

8:15 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Nathan Eovaldi R

xERA3.11 (good)K%28.2 (elite)HH%46.7 (poor)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)ERA4.24IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs90BB%7.0

HOU vs RHP

wRC+102 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)

Hunter Brown R

xERA3.74 (good)K%20.8 (avg)HH%43.2 (below avg)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA3.57IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs93BB%15.3

TEX vs RHP

wRC+118 (above avg)K%25.5 (below avg)HH%38.0 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTEX+112+1.5 (-204)O7.5 (-105)HOU-122-1.5 (+168)U7.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTEX-106+0.5 (-156)O3.5 (-148)HOU-115-0.5 (+120)U3.5 (+114)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO3.5 (-111)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)HOUO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UNathan Eovaldi6.5 (+114 / -145)18.5 (+125 / -167)Hunter Brown6.5 (+116 / -143)17.5 (-140 / +106)

Nathan Eovaldi · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 25vs

W7.09183111

Jul 19@

L4.08126244

Jul 9vs

W6.099106234

Jul 2vs

W5.08596133

Jun 26@

W7.09295100

Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 25@

W7.09072000

Jul 19vs

L4.29243644

Jul 10@

L6.09844533

Jul 4vs

W4.08236467

Jun 28@

W6.010345223

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Nathan Eovaldi

IPERAKHBB

vs HOU7.12.557.34.71.7(3)

at HOU7.10.638.05.01.5(2)

Hunter Brown

IPERAKHBB

vs TEX5.73.716.74.33.3(3)

home starts4.57.394.74.04.3(3)

Trends · TEX

TEX are 4-6 vs HOU this season (10 games).
TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
TEX are 4-1 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
TEX are 3-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 away starts.
TEX average 6.8 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
TEX average 5.2 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 away starts.

Trends · HOU

HOU are 6-4 vs TEX this season (10 games).
HOU are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
HOU are 3-2 in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
HOU are 3-2 in Hunter Brown's last 5 home starts.
HOU average 5.2 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
HOU average 5.0 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

TEX

xERA 3.35 (good)ERA 4.532d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)

HOU

xERA 3.23 (good)ERA 3.082d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

Weather · Roof Closed

Flags · 7

TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
HOU — Hunter Brown: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
TEX bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: 2026-07-19: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: low-K outing 2026-07-19 (2 Ks vs avg 6.7) — stuff was flat that day
HOU — Hunter Brown: 2026-07-19: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

Nathan Eovaldi Ks o6.5 (+122) (+122)

KCR @

COL✓

8:40 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Michael Wacha R

xERA4.23 (avg)K%18.5 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA1.93IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs99BB%7.4

COL vs RHP

wRC+71 (poor)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)

Tomoyuki Sugano R

xERA6.93 (poor)K%14.3 (below avg)HH%43.1 (below avg)Barrel%15.5 (poor)ERA6.48IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs85BB%2.9

KCR vs RHP

wRC+97 (avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%42.8 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalKCR-106-1.5 (+134)O11.5 (+102)COL-102+1.5 (-156)U11.0 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalKCR-120-0.5 (+108)O5.5 (-144)COL-104+0.5 (-140)U5.5 (+110)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO5.5 (-115)U5.5 (-110)O2.5 (-145)U2.5 (+114)COLO5.5 (+105)U5.5 (-130)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UMichael Wacha4.5 (+100 / -123)17.5 (-145 / +125)Tomoyuki Sugano3.5 (+106 / -123)15.5 (-104 / -125)

Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 25@

W7.09636222

Jul 20vs

W6.09653211

Jul 9@

L4.210456366

Jul 4vs

L6.010578144

Jun 27@

L7.210576111

Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 24@

W5.19356122

Jul 18vs

W6.17736033

Jun 26@

L5.08528177

Jun 20vs

W6.08554011

Jun 14@

W5.09728268

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Tomoyuki Sugano

IPERAKHBB

vs KCR5.52.434.04.51.5(2)

home starts5.73.683.75.30.7(3)

Trends · KCR

KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
KCR are 2-3 in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
KCR are 2-3 in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
KCR average 2.4 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
KCR average 2.6 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.

Trends · COL

COL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
COL have lost 4 straight.
COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
COL average 9.6 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
COL average 5.0 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

KCR

xERA 5.10 (below avg)ERA 5.172d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

COL

xERA 4.91 (below avg)ERA 5.402d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

89°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph E

APF 115 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 6

COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.10 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
KCR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
KCR — Michael Wacha: 2026-07-09: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: 2026-06-26: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props

KCR @ COL o11.0 (-105)

MIL @

LAA✓

9:38 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Shane Drohan L

xERA2.55 (elite)K%28.0 (elite)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%10.2 (avg)ERA5.40IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs88BB%4.0

LAA vs LHP

wRC+98 (avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%27.2 (poor)

Ryan Johnson R

xERA4.74 (below avg)K%17.0 (avg)HH%20.0 (elite)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA8.10IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs78BB%11.9

MIL vs RHP

wRC+121 (above avg)K%21.6 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIL-160-1.5 (-108)O9.0 (-110)LAA+148+1.5 (-110)U9.0 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIL-164-0.5 (-118)O4.5 (-140)LAA+135+0.5 (-110)U4.5 (+110)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UMILO5.5 (+110)U4.5 (+110)O2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-110)LAAO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UShane Drohan5.5 (-122 / +105)17.5 (-102 / +100)Ryan Johnson4.5 (+128 / +127)14.5 (-164 / +130)

Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 24vs

L6.09266255

Jul 18vs

W6.09095133

Jul 11@

L6.18365033

Jul 6@

W6.08526213

Jul 1vs

W5.27876122

Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 25@

L3.16948188

Jul 19vs

W5.09152311

Jul 11@

L5.07513333

Jul 5vs

L4.08766125

Jun 29@

L5.08134013

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ryan Johnson

IPERAKHBB

vs MIL—

home starts5.01.806.33.01.7(3)

Trends · MIL

MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
MIL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
MIL are 3-2 in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
MIL are 3-2 in Shane Drohan's last 5 away starts.
MIL average 4.0 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
MIL average 4.8 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 away starts.

Trends · LAA

LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
LAA are 1-4 in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
LAA are 2-1 in Ryan Johnson's last 3 home starts.
LAA average 3.0 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
LAA average 4.3 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 3 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

MIL

xERA 4.01 (avg)ERA 4.532d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

LAA

xERA 2.92 (elite)ERA 2.962d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

85°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW

APF 104 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 5

MIL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
LAA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIL — Shane Drohan: 2026-07-24: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
LAA — Ryan Johnson: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
LAA — Ryan Johnson: 2026-07-25: 8 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 23) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

MIL Team Total o5.5 (+110)

DET @

ATH✓

9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Tyler Holton L

xERA5.82 (poor)K%0.0 (poor)HH%41.7 (below avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA3.00IP/gs3.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs16BB%7.7

ATH vs LHP

wRC+99 (avg)K%26.1 (below avg)HH%34.7 (below avg)

Jeffrey Springs L

xERA6.12 (poor)K%11.5 (poor)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA10.13IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs69BB%11.5

DET vs LHP

wRC+34 (poor)K%25.2 (below avg)HH%39.1 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalDET-132-1.5 (+107)O11.0 (-105)ATH+122+1.5 (-125)U10.5 (+102)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalDET-140-0.5 (-108)O6.5 (+110)ATH+114+0.5 (-120)U6.5 (-144)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO5.5 (-125)U5.5 (+100)O2.5 (-145)U2.5 (+114)ATHO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (-104)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTyler Holton——Jeffrey Springs4.5 (+126 / -135)14.5 (-130 / +116)

Tyler Holton · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 27vs

L0.1*1001111

Jul 25vs

L1.0*1101000

Jul 23vs

W1.2*2601000

Jul 20@

W1.0*1302001

Jul 19@

L1.1*2021000

Jeffrey Springs · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 26@

L1.13604145

Jul 20@

W5.07826122

Jul 8@

L4.19246466

Jun 30vs

L5.19228466

Jun 25@

W5.18763233

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Jeffrey Springs

IPERAKHBB

vs DET4.56.923.55.03.0(2)

home starts4.113.173.76.32.7(3)

Trends · DET

DET are 3-0 vs ATH this season (3 games).
DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
DET are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
DET are 1-1 in Tyler Holton's last 2 starts.
DET average 5.5 runs/game in Tyler Holton's last 2 starts.

Trends · ATH

ATH are 0-3 vs DET this season (3 games).
ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
ATH are 2-3 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
ATH are 1-4 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.
ATH average 5.2 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
ATH average 7.8 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

DET

xERA 4.18 (avg)ERA 4.002d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)

ATH

xERA 5.61 (poor)ERA 5.362d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)

Weather · Hot

98°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WSW

APF 110 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 11

DET — Tyler Holton: small sample (3.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
ATH — Jeffrey Springs: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
ATH — Jeffrey Springs: avg 3.6 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.61 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
DET bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
ATH bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
DET — Tyler Holton: 88 days since last start (2026-05-04) — may not be fully stretched out
DET — Tyler Holton: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27, 2026-07-25 — may affect pitch count or availability
DET — Tyler Holton: last start: 22 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
ATH — Jeffrey Springs: last start: 36 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 110) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props

ATH Team Total o4.5 (-110)

SFG @

SDP

9:45 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

C. Whisenhunt L

xERA5.15 (below avg)K%19.4 (avg)HH%41.3 (below avg)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA4.60IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs83BB%11.9

SDP vs LHP

wRC+89 (below avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%50.5 (elite)

Bradgley Rodriguez

xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?

SFG

No data

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSFG+132+1.5 (-163)O8.5 (-110)SDP-142-1.5 (+140)U8.5 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSFG+112+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-140)SDP-140-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (+108)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (-128)U3.5 (+105)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)SDPO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UC. Whisenhunt3.5 (-145 / +120)15.5 (+120 / -160)Bradgley Rodriguez——

C. Whisenhunt · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 26vs

L5.07875244

Jul 9vs

W5.28743422

Jun 17@

W5.08526222

Trends · SFG

SFG are 4-3 vs SDP this season (7 games).
SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
SFG are 2-1 in C. Whisenhunt's last 3 starts.
SFG are 1-0 in C. Whisenhunt's last 1 away starts.
SFG average 6.0 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 3 starts.
SFG average 7.0 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 1 away starts.

Trends · SDP

SDP are 3-4 vs SFG this season (7 games).
SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.

Bullpens · Last 12

SFG

xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 3.462d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

SDP

xERA 2.14 (elite)ERA 3.322d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)

Weather · Neutral Conditions

77°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WNW

APF 99 — Neutral

Flags · 4

SDP — Bradgley Rodriguez: first start of the season — no stats available yet
SDP bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
SFG — C. Whisenhunt: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
SFG — C. Whisenhunt: 2026-07-26: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

Bradgley Rodriguez is a NO STATS first-time starter — hard disqualifying rule eliminates game totals and any bet dependent on his performance; Whisenhunt's K prop at 3.5 (-145) is overpriced relative to his 4.3 K/start average. SDP bullpen (xERA 2.14) is elite and would suppress any late-game scoring even if Whisenhunt struggles. No clean independent angle available.

BOS @

LAD

10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Ranger Suarez L

xERA3.13 (good)K%35.2 (elite)HH%38.2 (avg)Barrel%2.9 (elite)ERA4.26IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs71BB%1.8

LAD vs LHP

wRC+48 (poor)K%21.7 (avg)HH%34.1 (below avg)

Edgardo Henriquez

xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?

BOS

No data

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalBOS+120+1.5 (-188)O8.5 (+100)LAD-128-1.5 (+162)U8.0 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalBOS+106+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-102)LAD-132-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-128)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UBOSO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+102)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)LADO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+118)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/URanger Suarez4.5 (-129 / +102)15.5 (+138 / -182)Edgardo Henriquez——

Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 26vs

W4.06464000

Jul 5@

W2.25356033

Jun 29vs

W6.09585133

Jun 24@

L6.010297113

Jun 19@

W6.29451300

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ranger Suarez

IPERAKHBB

vs LAD6.04.505.07.02.0(1)

at LAD6.04.505.07.02.0(1)

Trends · BOS

BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
BOS are 9-1 in their last 10 away games.
BOS are 4-1 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
BOS average 6.2 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
BOS average 5.8 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.

Trends · LAD

LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.

Bullpens · Last 12

BOS

xERA 3.00 (good)ERA 1.942d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

LAD

xERA 5.10 (below avg)ERA 5.612d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

76°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WSW

APF 104 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 6

LAD — Edgardo Henriquez: first start of the season — no stats available yet
LAD bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.10 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
BOS bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
BOS — Ranger Suarez: last start: 64 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
BOS — Ranger Suarez: 2026-07-05: 3 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
BOS — Ranger Suarez: recent opponents high-K: LAA 26%, TOR 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups

AI Analysis

Edgardo Henriquez is a NO STATS first-time starter — hard disqualifying rule eliminates any bet dependent on his performance; Suarez's K prop is tempting but his 7.3 avg K/start was inflated by high-K opponents (LAA 26%, TOR 25%) and the line at 4.5 (-129) is priced aggressively, and his Outs line is already set low (15.5 at -182) raising early-exit concerns; no clean full-game or total bet with one completely unknown arm.

MIN @

SEA

10:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Zebby Matthews R

xERA4.94 (below avg)K%11.3 (poor)HH%29.6 (elite)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA8.40IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs94BB%11.3

SEA vs RHP

wRC+94 (below avg)K%20.1 (avg)HH%35.8 (avg)

Bryce Miller R

xERA3.93 (avg)K%11.7 (poor)HH%37.7 (avg)Barrel%4.9 (elite)ERA6.19IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs87BB%7.8

MIN vs RHP

wRC+87 (below avg)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%42.6 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIN+148+1.5 (-146)O7.5 (-113)SEA-160-1.5 (+129)U7.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIN+142+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (-110)SEA-180-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-118)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO3.5 (+104)U3.5 (-130)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)SEAO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UZebby Matthews4.5 (-128 / +108)17.5 (-137 / +103)Bryce Miller5.5 (-104 / -112)17.5 (-154 / +124)

Zebby Matthews · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 24vs

L6.09213322

Jul 19@

L3.087493810

Jul 10vs

L6.010239244

Jul 4@

W4.27953444

Jun 29@

W7.08974111

Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 24@

L5.18906155

Jul 17vs

L5.29167123

Jul 9@

L5.08139446

Jul 2vs

W7.09082000

Jun 25@

L5.290115033

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Zebby Matthews

IPERAKHBB

vs SEA7.05.147.06.01.0(1)

at SEA7.05.147.06.01.0(1)

Bryce Miller

IPERAKHBB

vs MIN4.06.752.05.01.0(1)

home starts5.71.577.04.00.3(3)

Trends · MIN

MIN are 1-2 vs SEA this season (3 games).
MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
MIN are 2-3 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
MIN are 3-2 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.
MIN average 4.0 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
MIN average 5.8 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.

Trends · SEA

SEA are 2-1 vs MIN this season (3 games).
SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
SEA are 1-4 in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
SEA are 2-3 in Bryce Miller's last 5 home starts.
SEA average 2.0 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
SEA average 1.4 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

MIN

xERA 3.55 (good)ERA 3.382d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

SEA

xERA 2.39 (elite)ERA 2.372d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Pitcher Friendly

78°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph N

APF 92 — Pitcher Friendly

Flags · 2

MIN — Zebby Matthews: 2026-07-19: 8 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 24) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SEA — Bryce Miller: recent opponents high-K: MIA 26%, TEX 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups

AI Analysis

Both starters have low K rates (Matthews 11.3%, Miller 11.7%), making K props unattractive. The game total at 7.5 is reasonable — both offenses are below average (MIN wRC+ 87, SEA wRC+ 94), SEA bullpen is elite (xERA 2.39), and pitcher-friendly T-Mobile (APF 92) keeps a lid on things. However, Matthews' xERA 4.94 vs Miller's 3.93 creates mild over lean but not enough conviction signals (3 of 6 needed for under, not clearly enough for over at this line). No edge identified.