MLB Game Overviews

AI Picks · 6 Bets · Jul 5

NYM @ ATL F5 u4.5 (+112)

Nolan McLean is HOT (recent ERA 1.59, averaging 6.7 K/start, strong matchup history vs ATL: 3.27 ERA/6.5 K/gs). Martin Perez is also in decent recent form (2.80 recent ERA). ATL offense is brutal vs RHP in L12 (wRC+ 51 — poor), and NYM offense vs LHP is only average (wRC+ 111). ATL bullpen is elite (xERA 2.85). Getting +112 on F5 Under 4.5 with McLean dealing and ATL's cold offense is clear value.

Found at 5:55 AM ET

Nolan McLean Ks o6.5 (+142)

McLean is averaging 6.7 K/start in his last 3 outings (9K, 6K, 5K) with a K% of 31.2%. ATL offense has a 19.8% K% vs RHP in L12 — decent matchup. McLean's recent K outings came against CIN (27% K), ATL (19.8% K — today's opponent), and SDP (~21% K), so no major inflation concern. Market line of 6.5 at +142 is underpriced given his recent form and deep outings (6.3 IP/gs). The ATL bullpen flag means the manager will likely let him pitch deep if he's rolling. Getting plus money on a pitcher averaging 6.7 K/start in his last 3 is strong value.

Found at 5:55 AM ET

PIT @ WSN o9.5 (+100)

Cade Cavalli is struggling badly recently (6.64 ERA in L3, 2-2 IP outing, exits early; vs PIT historically: 10.33 ERA/3.0 IP/gs in 2gs). Cavalli's xERA of 2.75 is elite but his recent form is concerning and small-sample history vs PIT is alarming. PIT offense is elite vs RHP in L12 (wRC+ 150). WSN bullpen is terrible (xERA 5.58 — a disqualifier for WSN ML/spread, but not totals; ERA 7.33). Bubba Chandler has decent recent ERA (3.21) but WSN offense is above average (wRC+ 124) and PIT bullpen is below average (xERA 4.87). Both pens are shaky. Getting Even money (+100) on an over in a game with two struggling/limited starters and catastrophic bullpens is value.

Found at 5:55 AM ET

Joe Ryan Ks o6.5 (-113)

Joe Ryan is HOT with a 2.12 recent ERA, averaging 6.7 K/start in L3 (7K, 8K, 5K). His K% is 30.9% and NYY offense vs RHP in L12 has a brutal 31.2% K% — one of the highest K rates in baseball. This is an excellent matchup. Recent K outings came vs TEX (~21% K), STL (~16% K), KCR (~23% K); today NYY is at 31.2% — calibrating UP from his recent 6.7 avg, we'd expect 7–8 Ks. The line is 6.5 at -113, which is a reasonable price for a pitcher who is averaging 6.7 against less K-prone lineups than today's opponent. Ryan also has a 1.45 ERA in 1 prior start at Yankee Stadium. Both bullpens are stressed (flags say deeper starts likely). Adjusted expectation of ~7.5 Ks vs the 6.5 line supports the over.

Found at 5:55 AM ET

PHI Team Total o5.5 (+106)

PHI has an elite offense vs RHP in L12 (wRC+ 141), and KCR's Luinder Avila is struggling badly (recent ERA 8.65, 0.2 IP/8 ER outing skewing it; even adjusting, he has a 3.60 xERA with 12.9% BB% and command issues). KCR bullpen is a disaster (xERA 4.61, ERA 7.92). PHI is averaging 6.0 RS in road starts (L5 away) and went 5-0 in SP away L5. Getting +106 on PHI to score 6+ runs against a shaky starter and weak bullpen is solid value.

Found at 5:55 AM ET

SFG @ COL o13.0 (-104)

Coors Field (APF 116) — the premier hitter's park in baseball. Tyler Mahle is struggling badly (recent ERA 8.40, high BB% 13.8%, average xERA 4.19). Tanner Gordon has elite-looking recent ERA (1.80) but a catastrophic xERA of 3.51 and HH% of 44.9% — his recent run is due for regression, plus his home ERA history is ugly (10.12 ERA at home in 2yr, 12.00 ERA vs SFG). Both bullpens are terrible (SFG xERA 4.60/ERA 6.25, COL xERA 4.97/ERA 5.44). SFG offense is hot (wRC+ 121 L12) and COL offense is equally hot (wRC+ 121 L12). This is a full-house Coors environment with two shaky starters and bad pens. Getting the over at -104 on 13.0 is fair value.

Found at 5:55 AM ET

AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice

NYM @

ATL✓

12:30 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Nolan McLean R

xERA3.21 (good)K%31.2 (elite)HH%29.8 (elite)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA2.84IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs99BB%6.2

ATL vs RHP

wRC+51 (poor)K%19.8 (above avg)HH%36.2 (avg)

Martin Perez L

xERA4.90 (below avg)K%14.7 (below avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA4.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs83BB%13.2

NYM vs LHP

wRC+111 (avg)K%24.7 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalNYM+102-1.5 (+164)O9.0 (-110)ATL-115-1.5 (+158)U9.0 (-108)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalNYM-112+0.5 (-156)O4.5 (-146)ATL-112-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (+112)

Team Totals

OverUnderNYMO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-125)ATLO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UNolan McLean6.5 (+142 / +115)17.5 (-133 / +100)Martin Perez4.5 (+116 / -144)15.5 (+115 / -150)

Nolan McLean · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30@

W6.09175200

Jun 24vs

L6.010497266

Jun 17@

W7.010193101

Jun 12vs

W4.09363422

Jun 6@

L6.010153311

Martin Perez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30vs

L5.08515344

Jun 24@

L4.08244433

Jun 19vs

W6.08256211

Jun 13@

W5.17144111

Jun 5vs

W5.08553233

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Nolan McLean

IPERAKHBB

vs ATL5.53.276.53.52.0(2)

at ATL7.02.577.04.00.0(1)

Martin Perez

IPERAKHBB

vs NYM5.11.764.04.01.0(1)

home starts5.34.503.74.72.3(3)

Trends · NYM

NYM are 2-3 vs ATL this season (5 games).
NYM are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
NYM are 3-2 in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
NYM are 3-2 in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.
NYM average 4.4 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
NYM average 4.6 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.

Trends · ATL

ATL are 3-2 vs NYM this season (5 games).
ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
ATL are 3-2 in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
ATL are 3-2 in Martin Perez's last 5 home starts.
ATL average 3.4 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
ATL average 3.6 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

NYM

xERA 3.96 (avg)ERA 4.262d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)

ATL

xERA 2.85 (elite)ERA 2.982d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)

Weather · Neutral Conditions

88°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph WSW

APF 103 — Neutral

Flags · 4

ATL — Martin Perez: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
ATL bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
NYM — Nolan McLean: 2026-06-24: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATL — Martin Perez: 2026-06-30: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

NYM @ ATL F5 u4.5 (+112)

Nolan McLean Ks o6.5 (+142)

PIT @

WSN✓

1:00 PM · Nationals ParkHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Bubba Chandler R

xERA3.53 (good)K%14.1 (below avg)HH%40.4 (below avg)Barrel%7.0 (good)ERA4.08IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs82BB%9.0

WSN vs RHP

wRC+124 (above avg)K%25.3 (below avg)HH%42.3 (above avg)

Cade Cavalli R

xERA2.75 (elite)K%32.8 (elite)HH%42.1 (below avg)Barrel%2.6 (elite)ERA2.30IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs88BB%6.2

PIT vs RHP

wRC+150 (elite)K%27.2 (below avg)HH%45.5 (elite)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalPIT+116+1.5 (-171)O9.5 (+100)WSN-130-1.5 (+152)U9.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalPIT+110+0.5 (-130)O5.5 (+110)WSN-138-0.5 (+100)U5.5 (-144)

Team Totals

OverUnderPITO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-120)WSNO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (+100)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UBubba Chandler4.5 (-113 / +100)15.5 (+120 / -158)Cade Cavalli6.5 (+122 / -145)16.5 (-110 / -121)

Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30@

L6.19767255

Jun 25vs

W5.17545311

Jun 19@

L6.07416222

Jun 13vs

W5.28463122

Jun 7@

L5.1*8871223

Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30@

W7.0100131001

Jun 25vs

L6.09775122

Jun 20@

W2.26816322

Jun 13vs

W5.08154033

Jun 7@

L5.08827144

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Bubba Chandler

IPERAKHBB

vs WSN6.01.507.02.00.0(1)

at WSN6.01.507.02.00.0(1)

Cade Cavalli

IPERAKHBB

vs PIT3.010.332.03.03.5(2)

home starts5.33.946.04.71.3(3)

Trends · PIT

PIT are 3-3 vs WSN this season (6 games).
PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
PIT are 3-2 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
PIT are 1-4 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 away starts.
PIT average 4.2 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
PIT average 4.2 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 away starts.

Trends · WSN

WSN are 3-3 vs PIT this season (6 games).
WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
WSN are 3-2 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
WSN are 2-3 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
WSN average 5.2 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
WSN average 6.0 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

PIT

xERA 4.87 (below avg)ERA 4.642d stress Normal (5.3 IP/2g)

WSN

xERA 5.58 (poor)ERA 7.332d stress Stressed (12.0 IP/2g)

Weather · Hot

93°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph SSW

APF 105 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 7

WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.58 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
WSN bullpen stressed (12.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
PIT — Bubba Chandler: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
PIT — Bubba Chandler: 2026-06-30: 5 ER in 6.1 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
WSN — Cade Cavalli: 2026-06-20: 2 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
WSN — Cade Cavalli: low-K outing 2026-06-20 (1 Ks vs avg 7.0) — stuff was flat that day
WSN — Cade Cavalli: high-K outing 2026-06-30 (13 Ks vs avg 7.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat

PIT @ WSN o9.5 (+100)

BAL @

CIN

1:05 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Kyle Bradish R

xERA2.48 (elite)K%29.9 (elite)HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%2.2 (elite)ERA1.83IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs95BB%10.4

CIN vs RHP

wRC+74 (poor)K%27.3 (below avg)HH%35.0 (avg)

Nick Lodolo L

xERA5.01 (below avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%5.1 (good)ERA4.61IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs87BB%11.7

BAL vs LHP

wRC+91 (below avg)K%27.3 (below avg)HH%34.3 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalBAL-108-1.5 (+143)O9.5 (-110)CIN-108+1.5 (-170)U9.5 (-108)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalBAL-106+0.5 (-148)O4.5 (-144)CIN-118-0.5 (+114)U4.5 (+110)

Team Totals

OverUnderBALO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (-102)CINO4.5 (-110)U4.5 (-113)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UKyle Bradish6.5 (+105 / -122)16.5 (-107 / -124)Nick Lodolo5.5 (-122 / -104)15.5 (-118 / -113)

Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 28vs

L4.08521534

Jun 22@

W8.010196100

Jun 17@

W7.2100125211

Jun 11vs

W4.08557355

Jun 6@

L4.08139355

Nick Lodolo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 29@

L5.09641400

Jun 23vs

L4.07562100

Jun 17vs

L4.290211277

Jun 12vs

L5.19655122

Jun 6@

L5.095310144

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Nick Lodolo

IPERAKHBB

vs BAL—

home starts4.46.094.36.01.3(3)

Trends · BAL

BAL are 2-0 vs CIN this season (2 games).
BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
BAL are 2-3 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
BAL average 5.2 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
BAL average 4.0 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.

Trends · CIN

CIN are 0-2 vs BAL this season (2 games).
CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
CIN are 0-5 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
CIN are 1-4 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 home starts.
CIN average 2.2 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
CIN average 3.2 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

BAL

xERA 2.13 (elite)ERA 2.472d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)

CIN

xERA 4.02 (avg)ERA 4.292d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

83°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 3 mph SW

APF 106 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 5

BAL bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
CIN bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
BAL — Kyle Bradish: low-K outing 2026-06-28 (2 Ks vs avg 7.7) — stuff was flat that day
BAL — Kyle Bradish: recent opponents high-K: SEA 26%, LAA 25%, WSN 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
CIN — Nick Lodolo: 2026-06-17: 7 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

Bradish is in acute recent struggle (6.51 ERA, well above xERA of 2.48 — recent ERA 3+ runs above, borderline disqualifying); Lodolo also struggling badly (8.18 recent ERA); BAL bullpen is elite (xERA 2.13) which suppresses total upside; conflicting signals make no clean play.

MIN @

NYY✓

1:35 PM · Yankee StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Joe Ryan R

xERA2.96 (elite)K%30.9 (elite)HH%41.5 (below avg)Barrel%14.6 (below avg)ERA6.00IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs95BB%8.8

NYY vs RHP

wRC+15 (poor)K%31.2 (poor)HH%35.6 (avg)

Ryan Weathers L

xERA5.48 (poor)K%27.4 (good)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA2.57IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs80BB%6.5

MIN vs LHP

wRC+3 (poor)K%22.0 (avg)HH%39.1 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIN+116+1.5 (-188)O8.5 (-108)NYY-130-1.5 (+158)U8.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIN+108+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-113)NYY-135-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-115)

Team Totals

OverUnderMINO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+110)NYYO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-135)

Pitcher Props

K O/UJoe Ryan6.5 (-113 / -103)Ryan Weathers5.5 (-120 / -104)

Joe Ryan · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30@

L4.09156366

Jun 24vs

L6.09898144

Jun 18@

W5.09773200

Jun 12vs

W6.010286033

Jun 6vs

L6.010256211

Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 29vs

L1.25537125

Jun 24@

W6.09766212

Jun 18vs

L6.18883111

Jun 12@

L4.18225166

Jun 5vs

L6.09347155

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Joe Ryan

IPERAKHBB

vs NYY6.21.457.04.02.0(1)

at NYY6.21.457.04.02.0(1)

Ryan Weathers

IPERAKHBB

vs MIN—

home starts4.45.415.05.71.0(3)

Trends · MIN

MIN are 1-1 vs NYY this season (2 games).
MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
MIN are 2-3 in Joe Ryan's last 5 starts.
MIN are 3-2 in Joe Ryan's last 5 away starts.
MIN average 5.4 runs/game in Joe Ryan's last 5 starts.
MIN average 5.6 runs/game in Joe Ryan's last 5 away starts.

Trends · NYY

NYY are 1-1 vs MIN this season (2 games).
NYY are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
NYY are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
NYY are 1-4 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
NYY are 2-3 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

MIN

xERA 4.93 (below avg)ERA 6.452d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)

NYY

xERA 1.78 (elite)ERA 1.452d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

86°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 1 mph SE

APF 104 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 8

MIN — Joe Ryan: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
NYY — Ryan Weathers: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
MIN bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
NYY bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIN — Joe Ryan: 2026-06-30: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
NYY — Ryan Weathers: last start: 55 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
NYY — Ryan Weathers: 2026-06-29: 2 ER in 1.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
NYY — Ryan Weathers: recent opponents low-K: DET 17%, DET 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher

Joe Ryan Ks o6.5 (-113)

CHW @

CLE

2:00 PM · Progressive FieldRainy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Chris Murphy

xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?

CLE

No data

Tanner Bibee R

xERA3.24 (good)K%17.4 (avg)HH%32.1 (good)Barrel%3.8 (elite)ERA2.45IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs92BB%4.3

CHW vs RHP

wRC+123 (above avg)K%20.2 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCHW+130+1.5 (-163)O8.5 (-106)CLE-149-1.5 (+138)U8.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCHW+136+0.5 (-110)O4.5 (-120)CLE-172-0.5 (-118)U4.5 (-108)

Team Totals

OverUnderCHWO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (+100)CLEO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-125)

Pitcher Props

K O/UChris Murphy—Tanner Bibee4.5 (-140 / +117)

Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30vs

L7.09125023

Jun 24@

W6.08933100

Jun 19@

L5.19574234

Jun 12vs

W7.09182222

Jun 6@

W8.08733200

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Tanner Bibee

IPERAKHBB

vs CHW6.71.796.73.31.7(3)

home starts6.73.155.04.31.0(3)

Trends · CHW

CHW are 3-3 vs CLE this season (6 games).
CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.

Trends · CLE

CLE are 3-3 vs CHW this season (6 games).
CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
CLE are 3-2 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
CLE are 1-4 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
CLE average 3.4 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

CHW

xERA 3.09 (good)ERA 3.552d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)

CLE

xERA 4.91 (below avg)ERA 4.062d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)

Weather · Rainy

75°F, Light Drizzle, Wind 3 mph NNE

APF 100 — Neutral

Flags · 3

CHW — Chris Murphy: first start of the season — no stats available yet
CHW bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
CLE bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER

AI Analysis

Chris Murphy has NO STATS (first start this season) — disqualifying factor per rules; cannot assess the matchup reliably.

STL @

CHC

2:30 PM · Wrigley FieldPitcher Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

M. Liberatore L

xERA4.90 (below avg)K%23.3 (good)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%15.4 (poor)ERA9.00IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs81BB%10.0

CHC vs LHP

wRC+152 (elite)K%22.0 (avg)HH%42.2 (above avg)

Javier Assad R

xERA6.63 (poor)K%12.3 (below avg)HH%54.4 (poor)Barrel%17.4 (poor)ERA6.08IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs7.5PC/gs76BB%7.0

STL vs RHP

wRC+105 (avg)K%15.9 (elite)HH%39.3 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSTL+130+1.5 (-165)O8.0 (-110)CHC-146-1.5 (+146)U8.0 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSTL+122+0.5 (-118)O4.5 (-138)CHC-152-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (+106)

Team Totals

OverUnderSTLO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (-111)CHCO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-135)

Pitcher Props

K O/UM. Liberatore4.5 (+124 / -157)Javier Assad3.5 (-108 / +102)

M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30@

W5.09891411

Jun 24vs

L5.19838266

Jun 18@

L1.24827057

Jun 13@

W4.17045144

Jun 6vs

W4.18444335

Javier Assad · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30vs

W2.2*5315244

Jun 24@

W5.08355233

Jun 17vs

W5.29215022

Jun 12@

W6.08553100

Jun 7vs

L6.1*7251100

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

M. Liberatore

IPERAKHBB

vs CHC5.72.114.34.32.0(3)

at CHC5.03.604.04.04.0(1)

Javier Assad

IPERAKHBB

vs STL5.10.006.03.01.0(1)

home starts5.23.461.05.00.0(1)

Trends · STL

STL are 4-1 vs CHC this season (5 games).
STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
STL are 3-2 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
STL average 6.0 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
STL average 4.6 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.

Trends · CHC

CHC are 1-4 vs STL this season (5 games).
CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
CHC are 4-1 in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
CHC are 2-0 in Javier Assad's last 2 home starts.
CHC average 5.0 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
CHC average 5.0 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 2 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

STL

xERA 4.04 (avg)ERA 4.122d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)

CHC

xERA 4.46 (avg)ERA 4.562d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)

Weather · Pitcher Friendly

69°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph NNW

APF 96 — Pitcher Friendly

Flags · 7

STL — M. Liberatore: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
CHC — Javier Assad: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
CHC — Javier Assad: Barrel% 17% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
CHC bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
STL — M. Liberatore: high-K outing 2026-06-30 (9 Ks vs avg 4.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
CHC — Javier Assad: 11 days since last start (2026-06-24) — may not be fully stretched out
CHC — Javier Assad: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-30, 2026-06-07 — may affect pitch count or availability

AI Analysis

Assad has extremely high xERA (6.63 poor) and HH%/Barrel% flags, but his recent ERA (1.61) is very hot — classic lucky/unlucky split creating uncertainty; Liberatore is struggling badly but has historical dominance vs CHC; no confident direction.

PHI @

KCR✓

3:00 PM · Kauffman StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Aaron Nola R

xERA4.14 (avg)K%23.5 (good)HH%45.6 (poor)Barrel%13.0 (below avg)ERA6.91IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs90BB%7.3

KCR vs RHP

wRC+81 (below avg)K%23.0 (avg)HH%44.0 (above avg)

Luinder Avila R

xERA3.60 (good)K%24.2 (good)HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%2.6 (elite)ERA3.68IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs88BB%12.9

PHI vs RHP

wRC+141 (elite)K%24.6 (below avg)HH%43.5 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalPHI-136-1.5 (+115)O10.0 (-105)KCR+119+1.5 (-137)U9.5 (-102)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalPHI-132-0.5 (+102)O5.5 (+100)KCR+106+0.5 (-132)U5.5 (-130)

Team Totals

OverUnderPHIO5.5 (+106)U5.5 (-130)KCRO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-125)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UAaron Nola5.5 (+125 / +130)16.5 (-115 / -115)Luinder Avila3.5 (-162 / +126)14.5 (-139 / +105)

Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 29vs

L4.18658278

Jun 24@

W5.08653222

Jun 18vs

L5.09767123

Jun 13@

W4.28536233

Jun 7vs

W4.19846455

Luinder Avila · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 28@

W4.08646344

Jun 23@

W5.08763411

Jun 17@

W5.29153111

Jun 12vs

L0.24905388

Jun 6@

W5.07032311

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Aaron Nola

IPERAKHBB

vs KCR6.09.005.06.01.0(1)

at KCR—

Luinder Avila

IPERAKHBB

vs PHI—

home starts0.2360.000.05.03.0(1)

Trends · PHI

PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
PHI are 3-2 in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
PHI are 5-0 in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
PHI average 6.8 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
PHI average 6.0 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.

Trends · KCR

KCR are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
KCR have lost 4 straight.
KCR are 4-1 in Luinder Avila's last 5 starts.
KCR are 0-2 in Luinder Avila's last 2 home starts.
KCR average 6.8 runs/game in Luinder Avila's last 5 starts.
KCR average 5.0 runs/game in Luinder Avila's last 2 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

PHI

xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 5.292d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

KCR

xERA 4.61 (below avg)ERA 7.922d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

89°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph NNW

APF 104 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 6

PHI — Aaron Nola: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
PHI — Aaron Nola: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
KCR — Luinder Avila: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
PHI — Aaron Nola: 2026-06-29: 7 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
PHI — Aaron Nola: recent opponents high-K: WSN 25%, PIT 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
KCR — Luinder Avila: 2026-06-28: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

PHI Team Total o5.5 (+106)

DET @

TEX

3:30 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Casey Mize R

xERA2.93 (elite)K%27.9 (good)HH%38.3 (avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs90BB%2.9

TEX vs RHP

wRC+119 (above avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%45.7 (elite)

Kumar Rocker R

xERA3.23 (good)K%29.0 (elite)HH%39.0 (avg)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA5.02IP/gs7.2 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs79BB%4.8

DET vs RHP

wRC+122 (above avg)K%25.0 (below avg)HH%41.6 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalDET-115-1.5 (+152)O7.5 (-114)TEX-101+1.5 (-170)U7.5 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalDET-118-0.5 (+118)O4.5 (-102)TEX-106+0.5 (-154)U4.5 (-128)

Team Totals

OverUnderDETO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+114)TEXO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-113)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UCasey Mize5.5 (+108 / +132)17.5 (-104 / -127)Kumar Rocker4.5 (-130 / +117)15.5 (+112 / -130)

Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 29@

W7.088101000

Jun 23vs

L5.29768144

Jun 17@

L4.28636133

May 27vs

W4.05862100

May 21vs

L6.29544022

Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 28@

W6.09254100

Jun 22@

W5.0*7695022

Jun 16vs

L3.17047267

Jun 11@

W4.28335222

Jun 5vs

W5.09456122

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Kumar Rocker

IPERAKHBB

vs DET4.05.563.54.01.5(2)

home starts4.75.113.75.32.0(3)

Trends · DET

DET are 3-2 vs TEX this season (5 games).
DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
DET are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
DET are 2-3 in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
DET are 1-4 in Casey Mize's last 5 away starts.
DET average 3.4 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
DET average 2.8 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 5 away starts.

Trends · TEX

TEX are 2-3 vs DET this season (5 games).
TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
TEX are 4-1 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
TEX are 3-2 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 home starts.
TEX average 3.8 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
TEX average 3.6 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

DET

xERA 2.41 (elite)ERA 4.972d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

TEX

xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 5.622d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Weather · Roof Closed

Roof Closed

Flags · 4

TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
DET — Casey Mize: recent opponents high-K: NYY 31%, NYY 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
TEX — Kumar Rocker: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
TEX — Kumar Rocker: 2026-06-16: 6 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

Rocker is struggling recently (7.32 recent ERA) but both offenses are above average (wRC+ 122, 119) yet the total is only 7.5 — market may have already priced in the pitching; neither starter has a dominant edge to play sides; no clean strong play.

TBR @

HOU

3:30 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Griffin Jax R

xERA5.87 (poor)K%26.6 (good)HH%45.5 (poor)Barrel%13.6 (below avg)ERA2.81IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs76BB%3.1

HOU vs RHP

wRC+93 (below avg)K%23.7 (avg)HH%33.3 (below avg)

Peter Lambert R

xERA2.84 (elite)K%20.8 (avg)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%6.0 (good)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs94BB%8.3

TBR vs RHP

wRC+152 (elite)K%16.2 (above avg)HH%40.3 (above avg)

Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30@

W6.07155033

Jun 24vs

W5.08875202

Jun 19vs

W5.06954022

Jun 13@

L5.06355001

Jun 7@

L5.06243200

Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 29vs

L5.210045344

Jun 23@

W4.29266322

Jun 17vs

W7.08952011

Jun 10@

L6.19165022

Jun 5vs

W5.19445411

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Peter Lambert

IPERAKHBB

vs TBR—

home starts5.83.124.34.02.3(3)

Trends · TBR

TBR are 1-1 vs HOU this season (2 games).
TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
TBR are 3-2 in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
TBR are 1-4 in Griffin Jax's last 5 away starts.
TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
TBR average 3.0 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 away starts.

Trends · HOU

HOU are 1-1 vs TBR this season (2 games).
HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
HOU average 4.8 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
HOU average 4.4 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

TBR

xERA 3.05 (good)ERA 2.512d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)

HOU

xERA 2.60 (elite)ERA 2.392d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)

Weather · Roof Closed

Roof Closed

Flags · 4

TBR — Griffin Jax: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
TBR — Griffin Jax: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
HOU bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TBR — Griffin Jax: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook

AI Analysis

No odds available for this game — cannot place any bets.

MIL @

ARI

4:00 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Brandon Sproat R

xERA2.12 (elite)K%41.8 (elite)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs84BB%7.3

ARI vs RHP

wRC+91 (below avg)K%15.7 (elite)HH%36.0 (avg)

E. Rodriguez L

xERA4.38 (avg)K%14.1 (below avg)HH%42.6 (below avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA0.87IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs95BB%7.7

MIL vs LHP

wRC+85 (below avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%34.6 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIL-122-1.5 (+134)O9.0 (-112)ARI+105+1.5 (-155)U9.0 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIL-118-0.5 (+114)O4.5 (-140)ARI-106+0.5 (-148)U4.5 (+108)

Team Totals

OverUnderMILO4.5 (-118)U4.5 (-105)ARIO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-145)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Sproat4.5 (+113 / -138)15.5 (+110 / -140)E. Rodriguez4.5 (+120 / -152)17.5 (-103 / -129)

Brandon Sproat · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30vs

W5.110674222

Jun 23@

W6.080101000

Jun 17vs

W3.26562244

Jun 10@

L6.06834111

Jun 5@

W5.08727233

E. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 29vs

W7.09115011

Jun 23@

W6.29553300

Jun 17vs

W7.010056311

Jun 12@

W2.28532512

Jun 6vs

L6.19256144

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Brandon Sproat

IPERAKHBB

vs ARI4.18.785.06.02.0(1)

at ARI—

E. Rodriguez

IPERAKHBB

vs MIL4.16.532.75.72.3(3)

home starts6.72.693.75.71.3(3)

Trends · MIL

MIL are 3-2 vs ARI this season (5 games).
MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
MIL are 4-1 in Brandon Sproat's last 5 starts.
MIL are 3-2 in Brandon Sproat's last 5 away starts.
MIL average 6.0 runs/game in Brandon Sproat's last 5 starts.
MIL average 5.0 runs/game in Brandon Sproat's last 5 away starts.

Trends · ARI

ARI are 2-3 vs MIL this season (5 games).
ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
ARI average 4.6 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
ARI average 4.0 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

MIL

xERA 4.13 (avg)ERA 3.512d stress Stressed (12.7 IP/2g)

ARI

xERA 4.54 (below avg)ERA 4.892d stress Stressed (11.7 IP/2g)

Weather · Roof Closed

Roof Closed

Flags · 6

MIL bullpen stressed (12.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
ARI bullpen stressed (11.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIL — Brandon Sproat: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
MIL — Brandon Sproat: 2026-06-17: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIL — Brandon Sproat: recent opponents high-K: CIN 27%, CIN 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
ARI — E. Rodriguez: recent opponents high-K: LAA 25%, SFG 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups

AI Analysis

Sproat is struggling recently (5.07 recent ERA, high pitch count last start on shorter leash) and E. Rodriguez's ERA (0.87) is massively lucky vs xERA (4.38); conflicting signals from both sides with no clean directional edge on the total or sides.

SFG @

COL✓

4:00 PM · Coors FieldHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Tyler Mahle R

xERA4.19 (avg)K%17.2 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA4.20IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs79BB%13.8

COL vs RHP

wRC+121 (above avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%37.3 (avg)

Tanner Gordon R

xERA3.51 (good)K%14.5 (below avg)HH%44.9 (below avg)Barrel%8.2 (avg)ERA6.92IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs76BB%3.2

SFG vs RHP

wRC+121 (above avg)K%19.8 (above avg)HH%38.5 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSFG-124-1.5 (+118)O13.0 (-104)COL+106+1.5 (-140)U13.0 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSFG-120-0.5 (+104)O6.5 (-135)COL-104+0.5 (-135)U6.5 (+104)

Team Totals

OverUnderSFGO6.5 (-115)U6.5 (-110)COLO5.5 (-135)U5.5 (+108)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTyler Mahle3.5 (-162 / +130)15.5 (+125 / -155)Tanner Gordon3.5 (+104 / -130)15.5 (+115 / -153)

Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 29@

L4.18534344

Jun 24vs

W5.27042200

May 26vs

L5.08133333

May 20@

L5.07968066

May 15@

L5.090610155

Tanner Gordon · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30vs

L5.07449055

May 31vs

L3.07526144

May 25@

L5.08036111

May 19vs

L6.1*81512177

May 14@

L4.0*6953111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Tyler Mahle

IPERAKHBB

vs COL6.11.485.04.01.0(1)

at COL—

Tanner Gordon

IPERAKHBB

vs SFG3.012.002.06.01.0(1)

home starts4.010.123.07.50.5(2)

Trends · SFG

SFG are 2-3 vs COL this season (5 games).
SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
SFG are 1-4 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
SFG are 0-5 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 away starts.
SFG average 3.2 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
SFG average 2.0 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 away starts.

Trends · COL

COL are 3-2 vs SFG this season (5 games).
COL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
COL are 0-3 in Tanner Gordon's last 3 starts.
COL are 0-2 in Tanner Gordon's last 2 home starts.
COL average 4.0 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 3 starts.
COL average 4.5 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 2 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

SFG

xERA 4.60 (below avg)ERA 6.252d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)

COL

xERA 4.97 (below avg)ERA 5.442d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)

Weather · Hot

96°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph ENE

APF 116 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 9

SFG — Tyler Mahle: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
COL — Tanner Gordon: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
SFG bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
SFG — Tyler Mahle: 2026-06-29: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SFG — Tyler Mahle: recent opponents low-K: ARI 16%, ARI 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
COL — Tanner Gordon: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-19, 2026-05-14 — may affect pitch count or availability
COL — Tanner Gordon: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
COL — Tanner Gordon: recent opponents low-K: LAD 19%, MIA 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 116) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props

SFG @ COL o13.0 (-104)

MIA @

ATH

4:30 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Eury Perez R

xERA2.31 (elite)K%34.6 (elite)HH%17.9 (elite)Barrel%10.7 (avg)ERA1.29IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs76BB%7.7

ATH vs RHP

wRC+83 (below avg)K%28.2 (poor)HH%36.7 (avg)

Gage Jump L

xERA3.59 (good)K%31.8 (elite)HH%46.3 (poor)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA2.70IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs98BB%6.1

MIA vs LHP

wRC+84 (below avg)K%25.8 (below avg)HH%30.5 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIA+106-1.5 (+157)O9.5 (-108)ATH-120-1.5 (+162)U9.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIA+110+0.5 (-125)O5.5 (+100)ATH-138-0.5 (-104)U5.5 (-130)

Team Totals

OverUnderMIAO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)ATHO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (-104)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UEury Perez5.5 (-127 / +112)15.5 (+113 / -151)Gage Jump5.5 (+118 / -125)17.5 (+102 / -115)

Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30@

W5.18682411

Jun 24vs

W4.26813011

May 27@

L4.07393000

May 22vs

W6.18652011

May 17@

L5.010255455

Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 29vs

L4.291511055

Jun 24@

L5.09793100

Jun 18vs

W7.010771300

Jun 12vs

W5.07565133

Jun 7@

W6.19633300

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Gage Jump

IPERAKHBB

vs MIA—

home starts5.44.446.05.71.3(3)

Trends · MIA

MIA are 2-0 vs ATH this season (2 games).
MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
MIA are 3-2 in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
MIA are 1-4 in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
MIA average 4.8 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
MIA average 4.0 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.

Trends · ATH

ATH are 0-2 vs MIA this season (2 games).
ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
ATH are 3-2 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
ATH are 2-2 in Gage Jump's last 4 home starts.
ATH average 4.2 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
ATH average 4.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 4 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

MIA

xERA 4.02 (avg)ERA 4.892d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)

ATH

xERA 4.22 (avg)ERA 5.892d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

76°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SSW

APF 106 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 5

ATH — Gage Jump: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
ATH bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIA — Eury Perez: low-K outing 2026-06-24 (1 Ks vs avg 6.0) — stuff was flat that day
ATH — Gage Jump: 2026-06-29: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATH — Gage Jump: recent opponents high-K: LAA 25%, SFG 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups

AI Analysis

Gage Jump is HOT but his HH% 46% and Eury Perez is elite by xERA (2.31) despite recent struggles — both offenses are cold in L12 (wRC+ 84, 83); no strong edge on total direction or side.

TOR @

SEA

5:00 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Trey Yesavage R

xERA2.91 (elite)K%18.4 (avg)HH%44.6 (below avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA2.29IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs98BB%6.6

SEA vs RHP

wRC+82 (below avg)K%26.2 (below avg)HH%37.2 (avg)

Emerson Hancock R

xERA4.05 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%44.9 (below avg)Barrel%8.2 (avg)ERA7.20IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs78BB%7.3

TOR vs RHP

wRC+90 (below avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTOR+116+1.5 (-193)O7.5 (+100)SEA-130-1.5 (+160)U7.5 (-117)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTOR+114+0.5 (-132)O4.5 (+108)SEA-142-0.5 (+102)U4.5 (-140)

Team Totals

OverUnderTORO3.5 (+104)U3.5 (-125)SEAO3.5 (-128)U3.5 (+100)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTrey Yesavage5.5 (-136 / +113)16.5 (-132 / +100)Emerson Hancock4.5 (-108 / -113)17.5 (+110 / -131)

Trey Yesavage · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 29vs

W6.29433011

Jun 24vs

L5.210552511

Jun 18@

W7.19564033

Jun 12vs

W5.08134655

Jun 5vs

L5.29155266

Emerson Hancock · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 28@

L5.29865311

Jun 20vs

L5.17664255

Jun 14@

L4.05929066

Jun 8@

W5.09233211

Jun 1vs

W6.09172022

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Emerson Hancock

IPERAKHBB

vs TOR—

home starts5.45.035.73.71.7(3)

Trends · TOR

TOR are 1-1 vs SEA this season (2 games).
TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
TOR are 3-2 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
TOR are 2-3 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.
TOR average 3.6 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
TOR average 3.2 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.

Trends · SEA

SEA are 1-1 vs TOR this season (2 games).
SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
SEA are 2-3 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
SEA are 2-3 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 home starts.
SEA average 3.2 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
SEA average 2.2 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

TOR

xERA 3.29 (good)ERA 2.682d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)

SEA

xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 4.112d stress Fresh (4.7 IP/2g)

Weather · Pitcher Friendly

72°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph NNW

APF 92 — Pitcher Friendly

Flags · 4

TOR — Trey Yesavage: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
SEA — Emerson Hancock: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
SEA bullpen fresh (4.7 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 92) — park suppresses offense, favor the under

AI Analysis

Both starters are struggling recently (Yesavage 7.28 ERA, Hancock 5.40 ERA) but both offenses are cold in L12 (wRC+ 90, 82); pitcher-friendly park (APF 92) suppresses scoring; no clean over edge, and the under requires better starter form.

SDP @

LAD

7:20 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

JP Sears L

xERA6.39 (poor)K%18.0 (avg)HH%47.2 (poor)Barrel%13.9 (below avg)ERA6.97IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs88BB%10.0

LAD vs LHP

wRC+143 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)

Emmet Sheehan R

xERA4.38 (avg)K%27.4 (good)HH%46.0 (poor)Barrel%13.5 (below avg)ERA6.75IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs84BB%9.7

SDP vs RHP

wRC+134 (elite)K%21.3 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSDP+184+1.5 (-110)O9.5 (-115)LAD-220-1.5 (-108)U9.5 (-102)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSDP+168+1.5 (-148)O5.5 (-110)LAD-215-1.5 (+114)U5.5 (-118)

Team Totals

OverUnderSDPO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+110)LADO5.5 (-111)U5.5 (-115)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UJP Sears4.5 (+106 / -130)15.5 (+117 / -155)Emmet Sheehan5.5 (+130 / -140)15.5 (-110 / -113)

JP Sears · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30@

L4.29548367

Jun 24vs

W5.28155222

Emmet Sheehan · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 28@

W5.08452211

Jun 21vs

L3.18248366

Jun 14@

L5.08584133

Jun 7vs

L1.14923222

Jun 1@

L6.19233022

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Emmet Sheehan

IPERAKHBB

vs SDP4.34.154.33.31.0(3)

home starts3.48.824.75.32.0(3)

Trends · SDP

SDP are 2-7 vs LAD this season (9 games).
SDP are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
SDP are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
SDP have lost 8 straight.
SDP are 1-1 in JP Sears's last 2 starts.
SDP are 0-1 in JP Sears's last 1 away starts.
SDP average 6.0 runs/game in JP Sears's last 2 starts.
SDP average 7.0 runs/game in JP Sears's last 1 away starts.

Trends · LAD

LAD are 7-2 vs SDP this season (9 games).
LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
LAD are 1-4 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
LAD are 3-2 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 home starts.
LAD average 3.0 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
LAD average 3.8 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

SDP

xERA 4.65 (below avg)ERA 7.322d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)

LAD

xERA 4.11 (avg)ERA 3.912d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)

Weather · Hitter Friendly

78°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph WSW

APF 104 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 7

SDP — JP Sears: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
SDP — JP Sears: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
LAD — Emmet Sheehan: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
LAD — Emmet Sheehan: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
SDP bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
SDP — JP Sears: 2026-06-30: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
LAD — Emmet Sheehan: 2026-06-21: 6 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

LAD ML is -220 (well exceeds -150 threshold); SDP spread at +1.5 -110 is reasonable but JP Sears is acutely poor (xERA 6.39, HH% 47%, struggling recently) making the game unpredictable in direction; no clean bet at acceptable odds.

BOS @

LAA

9:30 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Ranger Suarez L

xERA2.54 (elite)K%29.3 (elite)HH%27.1 (elite)Barrel%2.1 (elite)ERA1.93IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs97BB%6.7

LAA vs LHP

wRC+156 (elite)K%25.4 (below avg)HH%31.4 (below avg)

Ryan Johnson R

xERA2.90 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA3.38IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs87BB%3.1

BOS vs RHP

wRC+77 (poor)K%21.9 (avg)HH%34.7 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalBOS-155-1.5 (+105)O8.5 (-105)LAA+136+1.5 (-125)U8.0 (-103)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalBOS-152-0.5 (-108)O4.5 (-110)LAA+122+0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-118)

Team Totals

OverUnderBOSO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)LAAO3.5 (-105)U3.5 (-120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/URanger Suarez6.5 (+116 / -145)17.5 (-155 / +118)Ryan Johnson4.5 (-105 / +100)15.5 (-109 / -122)

Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 29vs

W6.09585133

Jun 24@

L6.010297113

Jun 19@

W6.29451300

Jun 13vs

W5.09776222

Jun 7@

L6.19066011

Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 29@

L5.08134013

Jun 23vs

W6.09081100

Jun 18@

L5.08928155

May 19vs

L2.0*3404155

May 17vs

L2.0*3523133

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ranger Suarez

IPERAKHBB

vs LAA4.113.174.09.04.0(1)

at LAA—

Ryan Johnson

IPERAKHBB

vs BOS—

home starts6.00.008.01.01.0(1)

Trends · BOS

BOS are 2-0 vs LAA this season (2 games).
BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
BOS average 5.0 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
BOS average 5.8 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.

Trends · LAA

LAA are 0-2 vs BOS this season (2 games).
LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
LAA have lost 5 straight.
LAA are 1-3 in Ryan Johnson's last 4 starts.
LAA are 1-0 in Ryan Johnson's last 1 home starts.
LAA average 2.2 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 4 starts.
LAA average 5.0 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 1 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

BOS

xERA 3.88 (avg)ERA 5.612d stress Fresh (4.3 IP/2g)

LAA

xERA 3.19 (good)ERA 2.562d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)

Weather · Neutral Conditions

77°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW

APF 103 — Neutral

Flags · 6

BOS bullpen fresh (4.3 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
LAA bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
BOS — Ranger Suarez: recent opponents high-K: SEA 25%, COL 28%, WSN 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
LAA — Ryan Johnson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-19, 2026-05-17 — may affect pitch count or availability
LAA — Ryan Johnson: 2026-06-18: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
LAA — Ryan Johnson: recent opponents high-K: ATH 28%, BAL 28%, SEA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups

AI Analysis

BOS ML is -155 (exceeds -150 pricing threshold); Ryan Johnson is acutely struggling (9.00 recent ERA) but LAA offense vs LHP is elite (wRC+ 156) creating a two-sided push on the total; no clean play at acceptable odds.