MLB Game Overviews

Pittsburgh opens with Lake Bachar before Mlodzinski, who carries a 6.86 xERA and 51.4 HH% over his last 3, but Pittsburgh's 42 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and St. Louis's 83 mean neither offense supports a total play at 8.0-8.5, and the moneyline is nearly even. Mlodzinski has no prop posted, and his 4.1 IP/gs across 3 starts at Busch Stadium would cap any number anyway. Leahy's 4.5 strikeout line at plus money both ways is fair for a 30.2 K% over his last 3 spread across the 4.7 IP/gs he has been going, and his 11.5 outs line already prices the short leash his 63-pitch last start showed.

Cincinnati's 146 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 is a heater against their 101 over their last 12 and Chicago's 94 vs LHP over their last 6 is a slump against 126 over their last 12, so both lineups regress toward the middle and the 8.5 total is where it belongs. Abbott's strikeout line at 3.5 is undercut by the 2, 4 and 3 punchouts he has managed across his 3 starts against Chicago at 4.5 IP/gs, and his outs line at 16.5 matches that depth. Gausman's 6.5 strikeout number is exactly where a 26.9 K% over his last 3 lands across the six innings his 17.5 outs line implies, and his 4.1 IP/gs across 3 home starts makes the outs over unappealing at -158.

Anderson has thrown only 5.2 innings across his last 3 starts, so his 2.66 xERA rests on almost nothing, and with Seattle at a 117 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 against Soriano's 4.72 xERA the 7.5 total and -120 home price are both defensible without being wrong. Anderson's 4.5 strikeout line and 15.5 outs line are both built off that same thin sample, which is not a base to bet from in either direction. Soriano's 5.5 strikeout number is caught against a Toronto opponent striking out 23.3% vs RHP over their last 6 while he has averaged 4.3 per start, and his 16.5 outs line at even money matches the 5.6 IP/gs he has been going.

Washington's 124 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 against Alcantara's 3.36 xERA and Miami's 119 against Cavalli's 2.36 xERA roughly cancel, and at 7.5 with a near-even moneyline there is nothing to take on either the side or the total. Cavalli's 6.5 strikeout line already reflects the 10, 11 and 7 he has posted over his last 3 and Miami's 16.7 K% vs RHP over their last 6 argues against pushing it higher, while his 17.5 outs line matches his 6.7 IP/gs. Alcantara's 4.5 strikeout number is priced to his 3.0 per start over his last 3, and his 20.5 outs line is an unusually deep ask that only his 102-pitch, seven-inning last start supports.

Both lineups have collapsed against left-handers over their last 6 — Kansas City at a 52 wRC+ and Cleveland at 70 — but both sat at 141 and 116 over their last 12, so the current numbers are slumps rather than talent and the 7.5-8.0 total already accounts for them. Lynch averages 3.6 IP/gs over his last 3 with a 10.6 Whiff%, so his 2.5 strikeout line and 12.5 outs line both sit right where his short, contact-heavy outings land. Griffin's 5.5 strikeout number is caught between his 19.7 K% over his last 3 and Kansas City's spiked 31.7 K% over their last 6, and his 17.5 outs line at -182 asks for more than the 5, 6 and 5 innings he has actually thrown.

Buehler at a 2.61 xERA and Martinez at 2.50 over their last 3 face lineups at 89 and 98 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, and the 7.5 total plus a -126 home price already reflect exactly that. Buehler's 3.5 strikeout line matches his 4.3 per start against a Tampa Bay lineup striking out just 13.9% vs RHP over their last 6, and his 15.5 outs line at -196 on the under is past any price worth paying. Martinez's 3.5 strikeout number fits his 14.4 Whiff% over his last 3, and his 17.5 outs line is right on the 6.2 IP/gs he has run.