AI Picks · 17 Bets · Jul 19
LAD @ NYY u8.0 (-115)
This is the Game 1 (12:35 PM). Yamamoto is elite (xERA 2.52, recent ERA 2.69 after adjusting for one bad start — flag notes the July 11 blowup was an outlier). Cam Schlittler has been excellent recently (recent ERA 3.60, back-to-back brilliant outings: 0 ER in 5 IP vs BOS, 0 ER in 6 IP vs CIN with 13 Ks). LAD offense vs RHP is poor right now (wRC+ 61). NYY bullpen is strong (xERA 3.14, ERA 1.93). NYY has averaged only 3.8 RS in Schlittler's home starts. Both teams are trending low offensively in these pitchers' recent starts (LAD 5.8 RS but 3-2 record; NYY 4.0 RS). T-Mobile... wait, this is Yankee Stadium APF 103, neutral-ish. Under 8 at -115 is reasonable given two solid starters and a strong NYY pen.
Found at 10:46 AM ET
NYY Team Total o4.5 (+116)
NYY offense is hot (wRC+ 114 L12, HH% 45.7%) facing Will Klein who carries enormous disqualifying flags: only 3.0 IP across 3 starts (all micro-outings of 1-2 IP), 27 days since last start, recent bullpen appearances, and a sky-high BB% of 21.4%. Klein is almost certain to be on a very short leash — 3 innings max — handing the ball to the LAD bullpen (ERA 4.14, xERA 3.48, average quality). Rodriguez's home ERA of 6.59 in limited home starts is also a concern for LAD scoring, keeping this as a one-sided team total rather than a game total over. At +116, the market is undervaluing NYY's run-scoring probability given the matchup of a stretched-thin opener vs a hot offense.
Found at 4:41 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
Sean Burke K o5.5 (-102)
Sean Burke is elite (xERA 2.02, K% 39.4%) averaging 7.0 K/start over his last 3 outings. The line is only 5.5 Ks — well below his recent output. Flag notes recent opponents were high-K (CLE 27%, ATH 29%), and TOR has a lower K rate (17.8%) — so adjust down from 7.0 slightly. Even calibrated to ~5.8-6.2 expected Ks, the line of 5.5 at -102 is undervalued. Burke is going 6.1 IP/gs avg with avg PC ~89 — plenty of innings to accumulate. TOR's offense is cold (wRC+ 75 L12) and contact-oriented, but Burke's K% is so high (39.4%) that even vs a lower-K lineup he should exceed 5.5. The bullpen flag says manager will leave Burke in longer, further supporting outs accumulation. -102 is near even money on a clear over.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
CHW ML (-115)
Sean Burke is elite (xERA 2.02, recent ERA 2.41, averaging 7.0 K/start) facing a TOR offense that is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 83, low K% 16.9 meaning contact-oriented — but against Burke's elite K stuff they should still struggle). CHW bullpen is strong (xERA 2.90). Trey Yesavage has BB% 15% (command issues) and TOR bullpen has elevated ERA (4.76). CHW is 4-1 in SP away L5 averaging 6.0 RS. TOR is 2-3 in SP home L5 averaging only 3.2 RS in Yesavage's starts. Note: Burke had a bad outing vs TOR in prior matchup (10.80 ERA, 1gs) — small sample concern, hence medium confidence. -115 is within pricing limits.
Found at 10:46 AM ET
Cam Schlittler K o6.5 (-128)
Cam Schlittler has been on a K tear: 5K, 9K, 13K in his last 3 starts (avg 9.0 K/start), with K% 25.3%. LAD offense vs RHP is cold (wRC+ 67 in L12, K% 19.1%). Calibrating: LAD K rate is below the high-K lineups Schlittler recently faced (DET, BOS, CIN all vary), but even adjusting down his recent 9.0 K/start avg suggests ~7.5 expected Ks today. Schlittler averaging 6.2 IP/gs with recent avg PC ~91 — will get innings. Barrel% 18% is a flag but doesn't affect K rate. The line of 6.5 at -128 is inside our pricing comfort zone and the adjusted expectation of ~7.5 Ks clears the line by 1.0+. The 13K gem vs CIN (xK% matchup dependent) and 9K vs BOS confirm this is real. Caution: flag on Barrel% and one bad start (6 ER in 4.0 IP vs DET), but K prop is independent of run-prevention.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
Line Warning: If -128 feels steep, look for Schlittler K Over 5.5 at a better price — still strong value given his trajectory.
ATL Team Total o4.5 (+120)
Grant Holmes is struggling badly in recent starts (recent ERA 5.81, avg only 3.0 K/start, short outings) with a matchup history of 9.00 ERA vs TEX — wait, this is ATL scoring off TEX starter Eovaldi. ATL offense is strong vs RHP (wRC+ 123 in L12). Eovaldi has elite xERA 2.42 but his ERA (3.00) and recent form (2.70 recent ERA) are legitimate — caution here. However, ATL Team Total Over 4.5 at +120 is excellent value: ATL's hot offense (wRC+ 123 L12) facing Eovaldi (who has allowed runs in 2 of 3 recent starts), TEX bullpen is shaky (xERA 4.72, ERA 6.75 in L12). Even if Eovaldi limits damage in 6 innings, the TEX pen will be on early. The +120 price implies ATL has <45% chance of scoring 5+ — that's undervalued given their offense.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
NYM Team Total o4.5 (-108)
NYM offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 133 in L12) facing Alan Rangel who is in poor form: 11 days since last start, recent bullpen appearances, last start only 69 pitches (early hook), BB% 17% (command issues), and xERA 3.55 that looks better than his actual performance. Rangel's short outings (avg 5.7 IP/gs but with recent 3.0 and 4.0 IP outings) mean NYM will face the PHI bullpen (xERA 3.89) early. Nolan McLean's dominance vs PHI (0.69 ERA in 2 starts) is the pitching edge for NYM, but this is the offensive edge play: NYM's elite wRC+ 133 vs a shaky Rangel who can't find the zone. -108 is fair value.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
TBR @ BOS u8.0 (-105)
Sonny Gray is elite and locked in (recent ERA 1.71, xERA 2.60, averaging 7+ IP in last 3 starts, 8.0 K/start). BOS bullpen is the best in baseball right now (xERA 1.95, ERA 1.11). Shane McClanahan is struggling recently (recent ERA 5.45 vs xERA 3.82 — elevated concern) but TBR offense is only average vs RHP (wRC+ 97) and BOS offense vs LHP is strong but not electric (wRC+ 129). Cross wind at 16mph at Fenway has suppressive effect on totals. BOS has won 10 straight. The Gray + elite BOS bullpen combination should easily limit TBR, and even if McClanahan struggles slightly the BOS pen can hold. -105 juice on Under 8 is very reasonable.
Found at 10:46 AM ET
NYM F5 ML (-154)
Nolan McLean is dominant: recent ERA 2.84 (with one blowup skewing it — the other two starts were 0 ER in 6 IP and 0 ER in 7 IP), xERA 3.41, and has specifically dominated PHI (0.69 ERA in 2 prior starts vs PHI, 1.76 ERA at CBP). NYM offense vs RHP is elite (wRC+ 133). Alan Rangel has serious concerns: BB% 17%, only 3.0 IP in last start (44 pitches), 11 days since last start, recent bullpen appearances, and ERA 5.56 vs xERA 3.55. NYM offense should score early vs a shaky Rangel. The F5 captures McLean's dominance while avoiding NYM's bad bullpen. HOWEVER -154 exceeds our -150 threshold — flagging with line_warning.
Found at 10:46 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider NYM Team Total Over 4.5 at -108 instead — captures NYM offensive edge vs Rangel without relying on side and avoids the juice
SDP @ KCR o10.5 (+100)
Both starters are struggling severely: German Marquez (recent ERA 9.00, xERA 4.66, 13.50 ERA in 1 prior start vs KCR at this park) and Noah Cameron (recent ERA 9.55, xERA 7.13, Barrel% 21%, BB% 14%). This is as clear a 'both starters are imploding' setup as exists. KCR averages 8.0 RS in home games in Cameron's recent starts; SDP offense is below avg vs LHP but Cameron's control and contact-rate issues overcome that. KCR bullpen xERA 5.01 — well below average. APF 105 slightly hitter-friendly. Multiple over signals align: both starters with high recent ERA, both with high xERA, mediocre bullpens on both sides, KCR trending to high-run home games. Getting +100 on Over 10.5 is solid value given the pitching matchup.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
MIA @ MIL F5 u4.5 (-130)
Eury Perez is elite and dominant (xERA 1.82, recent ERA 1.35, has dominated MIL specifically: 0.82 ERA in 2 starts vs MIL, 1.80 ERA at this park). MIL offense vs RHP is only average (wRC+ 104). Robert Gasser is genuinely hot recently (recent ERA 2.74 after adjusting for one blowup, 2.34 ERA at home in 3 starts). MIA offense vs LHP is strong (wRC+ 131) but Gasser's recent form has been solid. Two quality starters in the first 5 innings at a pitcher-neutral park (APF 99). Confidence is medium due to -130 juice — not ideal, but the pitching matchup strongly supports under 4.5 in the first 5.
Found at 10:46 AM ET
WSN ML -138 (-138)
Foster Griffin is an elite starter (xERA 2.55) in scorching hot form (recent ERA 0.90, averaging 8.0 K/start over last 3) facing Jacob Lopez who is in acute meltdown (recent ERA 19.04, averaging only 2.5 K/start, 3.3 IP/gs avg). Lopez had only 12 pitches last start — likely injury concern or near-immediate hook. The ATH bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.93, ERA 8.94 in L12), meaning once Lopez exits early, it gets worse. WSN offense is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 153 in L12) — exactly what they're facing. WSN has gone 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 starts averaging 6.2 RS. Only caution: WSN's own bullpen is shaky (xERA 4.94), but Griffin's dominance and Lopez's implosion risk create a clear compound edge. The -138 ML is justified pricing but the edge is real given the magnitude of the pitching mismatch.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
WSN Team Total o5.5 (-108)
WSN offense is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 153 in L12) facing Jacob Lopez who is historically short (3.3 IP/gs avg) and currently imploding (recent ERA 19.04). ATH bullpen xERA 5.93 — among the worst in baseball — means the run-scoring environment stays dangerous after Lopez exits. WSN averaging 6.2 RS in Griffin's last 5 starts. This is a pure offensive edge play: WSN scores plenty regardless of game outcome or WSN bullpen concerns. -108 is an excellent price for an elite offense against a struggling starter plus terrible bullpen.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
WSN @ ATH o10.5 (-112)
Jacob Lopez is a disaster: recent ERA 19.04, averaging only 3.3 IP/gs with two rough outings (7 ER in 2 IP vs NYY, 4 ER in 3.2 IP vs LAA). Both bullpens are historically bad — ATH pen xERA 5.90, WSN pen xERA 5.11. WSN offense vs LHP is elite (wRC+ 175). Hitter-friendly park (APF 109). Lopez is expected to depart early, dumping the game into two terrible bullpens. ATH has averaged 7.2 RS/game in Lopez's home starts. WSN in Lopez starts averages 6.2 RS. Multi-factor OVER alignment: bad starters (especially Lopez), elite WSN offense, two terrible bullpens, hitter-friendly park.
Found at 10:46 AM ET
SFG @ SEA u7.0 (+103)
Elite pitching matchup with multiple under signals. Robbie Ray is dominant (recent ERA 0.00 over 3 starts, going 8.0, 8.0, 6.1 IP — extraordinary workload and results) despite xERA 3.53. Logan Gilbert is also sharp (xERA 2.90 elite, recent ERA 2.69, averaging 8.3 K/start). Ray's season ERA 1.89 vs xERA 3.53 shows luck component, but his recent form is genuinely exceptional — consistent deep outings. Gilbert at home is 0.89 ERA in 3 starts. SFG offense vs RHP is average (wRC+ 112), but park suppresses offense (APF 92). SEA offense vs LHP is strong (wRC+ 136) but Ray's recent performance has been dominant against everyone. SFG bullpen xERA 2.27 is elite (ERA inflated by small sample noise). Getting +103 on Under 7.0 with two pitchers going deep and a pitcher-friendly park is significant value — this should be a 6.0-6.5 run environment today.
Found at 5:27 AM ET
STL @ ARI F5 u4.5 (+100)
E. Rodriguez is on a historic hot streak (recent ERA 0.89, last 3 starts: 7.0, 6.2, 7.0 IP — all quality starts) with elite home splits (1.80 ERA at home) and has already dominated STL in a prior matchup (6.2 IP, 0 ER). ARI's offense vs RHP is poor (wRC+ 79). On the STL side, Pallante's recent ERA (3.75 adjusted — ignoring one 6-ER blowup) is acceptable, but ARI's bullpen is elite (xERA 2.56). The combination of a dominant home starter, a poor opposing offense, and elite relief support makes sub-4.5 runs in the first 5 innings likely. Line at +100 gives value for what is clearly a pitcher-dominated first half.
Found at 10:46 AM ET
Logan Gilbert o6.5 Ks (-111)
Gilbert is averaging 8.3 K/start in recent 3 starts (7K vs CLE, 8K vs BOS, 10K vs BAL). SFG has K% of 20.9% vs RHP — slightly below the opponents Gilbert recently faced (CLE 26.7%, BAL 21.9%, BOS 18.1%). Adjusting calibration: SFG K% is roughly in line with BOS but below CLE/BAL, so slight adjustment down from 8.3 to ~7.5 expected Ks. That adjusted expectation of 7.5 is well above the 6.5 line by more than 1.0. Gilbert averages 7.0 IP/gs (deep outings ensure he has enough innings to accumulate), and his xERA 2.90 + recent form confirm he'll be dominant. -111 is very reasonable juice for this edge.
Found at 10:46 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
CHW @
TOR✓12:15 PM · Rogers CentreNeutral Conditions
CHW @
TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Sean Burke R
xERA2.02 (elite)K%39.4 (elite)HH%30.8 (good)Barrel%10.3 (avg)ERA1.96IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs97BB%4.2
TOR vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%16.9 (above avg)HH%31.6 (below avg)
Trey Yesavage R
xERA4.53 (below avg)K%17.7 (avg)HH%36.6 (avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA4.40IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs83BB%14.5
CHW vs RHP
wRC+110 (avg)K%20.7 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW-114-1.5 (+145)O8.5 (+102)TOR+100+1.5 (-164)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW-122-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-106)TOR-102+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-145)O1.5 (-166)U1.5 (+130)TORO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (-105)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USean Burke5.5 (-102 / -109)17.5 (-119 / -110)Trey Yesavage5.5 (-136 / +110)16.5 (-117 / -114)
Sean Burke · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
W6.29852100
W6.29852100Jul 10vs
W7.09894011
W7.09894011Jul 4@
W6.095117011
W6.095117011Jun 29@
W5.18984322
W5.18984322Jun 23vs
W6.19066111
W6.19066111Trey Yesavage · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L6.09595233
L6.09595233Jul 11@
L1.25911744
L1.25911744Jul 5@
L6.09673223
L6.09673223Jun 29vs
W6.29433011
W6.29433011Jun 24vs
L5.210552511
L5.210552511SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Burke
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.64.823.54.02.0(2)
at TOR6.20.005.02.01.0(1)
Trey Yesavage
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW6.04.509.05.02.0(1)
home starts5.82.595.73.32.3(3)
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 5-2 vs TOR this season (7 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 4-1 in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 4-1 in Sean Burke's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 5.6 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 6.0 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 2-5 vs CHW this season (7 games).
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 2-3 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-3 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 home starts.
- TOR average 2.8 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.2 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 2.90 (elite)ERA 2.162d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 4.762d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
69°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph SSE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- TOR — Trey Yesavage: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- CHW bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TOR bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW — Sean Burke: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-18 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHW — Sean Burke: recent opponents high-K: CLE 27%, ATH 30% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TOR — Trey Yesavage: last start: 59 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TOR — Trey Yesavage: 2026-07-11: 4 ER in 1.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Sean Burke K o5.5 (-102)
Sean Burke is elite (xERA 2.02, K% 39.4%) averaging 7.0 K/start over his last 3 outings. The line is only 5.5 Ks — well below his recent output. Flag notes recent opponents were high-K (CLE 27%, ATH 29%), and TOR has a lower K rate (17.8%) — so adjust down from 7.0 slightly. Even calibrated to ~5.8-6.2 expected Ks, the line of 5.5 at -102 is undervalued. Burke is going 6.1 IP/gs avg with avg PC ~89 — plenty of innings to accumulate. TOR's offense is cold (wRC+ 75 L12) and contact-oriented, but Burke's K% is so high (39.4%) that even vs a lower-K lineup he should exceed 5.5. The bullpen flag says manager will leave Burke in longer, further supporting outs accumulation. -102 is near even money on a clear over.
CHW ML (-115)
Sean Burke is elite (xERA 2.02, recent ERA 2.41, averaging 7.0 K/start) facing a TOR offense that is poor vs RHP (wRC+ 83, low K% 16.9 meaning contact-oriented — but against Burke's elite K stuff they should still struggle). CHW bullpen is strong (xERA 2.90). Trey Yesavage has BB% 15% (command issues) and TOR bullpen has elevated ERA (4.76). CHW is 4-1 in SP away L5 averaging 6.0 RS. TOR is 2-3 in SP home L5 averaging only 3.2 RS in Yesavage's starts. Note: Burke had a bad outing vs TOR in prior matchup (10.80 ERA, 1gs) — small sample concern, hence medium confidence. -115 is within pricing limits.
LAD @
NYY✓12:35 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions
LAD @
NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Y. Yamamoto R
xERA2.52 (elite)K%26.3 (good)HH%25.0 (elite)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA3.79IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs102BB%10.5
NYY vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%26.1 (below avg)HH%45.7 (elite)
Cam Schlittler R
xERA4.09 (avg)K%25.3 (good)HH%41.2 (below avg)Barrel%17.6 (poor)ERA4.34IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs99BB%6.7
LAD vs RHP
wRC+61 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)HH%34.9 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-112-1.5 (+152)O7.5 (-110)NYY+100+1.5 (-175)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-112+0.5 (-164)O4.5 (+110)NYY-112-0.5 (+125)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
OverUnderLADO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+105)NYYO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-113)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UY. Yamamoto7.5 (+123 / +100)17.5 (-165 / +124)Cam Schlittler6.5 (-128 / +114)17.5 (-141 / +106)
Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
W9.010274022
W9.010274022Jul 11vs
L6.010365466
L6.010365466Jul 4vs
W7.0100103200
W7.0100103200Jun 27@
W6.08945222
W6.08945222Jun 20vs
L6.010266233
L6.010266233Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L4.19886033
L4.19886033Jul 11@
W6.29964422
W6.29964422Jul 6@
W8.010184011
W8.010184011Jun 30vs
L4.08557166
L4.08557166Jun 25@
L5.09295204
L5.09295204SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Y. Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.14.434.55.51.5(2)
at NYY9.02.007.04.00.0(1)
Cam Schlittler
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD4.16.598.06.00.0(1)
home starts4.75.748.75.70.3(3)
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-1 vs NYY this season (3 games).
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 2-3 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-2 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 4.4 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 5.4 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 1-2 vs LAD this season (3 games).
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 1-9 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.0 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.6 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 3.48 (good)ERA 4.142d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 1.932d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: Barrel% 18% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: 2026-07-11: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: 2026-06-30: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Cam Schlittler K o6.5 (-128)
Cam Schlittler has been on a K tear: 5K, 9K, 13K in his last 3 starts (avg 9.0 K/start), with K% 25.3%. LAD offense vs RHP is cold (wRC+ 67 in L12, K% 19.1%). Calibrating: LAD K rate is below the high-K lineups Schlittler recently faced (DET, BOS, CIN all vary), but even adjusting down his recent 9.0 K/start avg suggests ~7.5 expected Ks today. Schlittler averaging 6.2 IP/gs with recent avg PC ~91 — will get innings. Barrel% 18% is a flag but doesn't affect K rate. The line of 6.5 at -128 is inside our pricing comfort zone and the adjusted expectation of ~7.5 Ks clears the line by 1.0+. The 13K gem vs CIN (xK% matchup dependent) and 9K vs BOS confirm this is real. Caution: flag on Barrel% and one bad start (6 ER in 4.0 IP vs DET), but K prop is independent of run-prevention.
TEX @
ATL✓1:35 PM · Truist ParkHot
TEX @
ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Nathan Eovaldi R
xERA2.42 (elite)K%37.3 (elite)HH%45.2 (poor)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs88BB%5.3
ATL vs RHP
wRC+147 (elite)K%21.6 (avg)HH%41.5 (above avg)
Grant Holmes R
xERA2.66 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)HH%41.5 (below avg)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA0.64IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs82BB%3.6
TEX vs RHP
wRC+92 (below avg)K%19.0 (above avg)HH%35.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX-120-1.5 (+135)O9.0 (+101)ATL+104+1.5 (-155)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-135-0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-122)ATL+114+0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)ATLO4.5 (+120)U3.5 (+112)O1.5 (-166)U1.5 (+130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNathan Eovaldi5.5 (-150 / +119)17.5 (-161 / +121)Grant Holmes4.5 (+100 / -125)15.5 (+119 / -150)
Nathan Eovaldi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
L4.08126244
L4.08126244Jul 9vs
W6.099106234
W6.099106234Jul 2vs
W5.08596133
W5.08596133Jun 26@
W7.09295100
W7.09295100Jun 21vs
W6.09497133
W6.09497133Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
W5.07427233
W5.07427233Jul 8@
W5.09053100
W5.09053100Jul 3vs
W5.08225112
W5.08225112Jun 27@
L4.0*4741000
L4.0*4741000Jun 22@
L4.29143511
L4.29143511SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nathan Eovaldi
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL4.54.004.54.53.0(2)
at ATL4.09.002.06.02.0(1)
Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX4.57.002.06.52.0(2)
home starts4.05.252.05.32.0(3)
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 1-2 vs ATL this season (3 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 5-0 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 6.4 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.6 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 2-1 vs TEX this season (3 games).
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 2-3 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-3 in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 2.4 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.2 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 4.68 (below avg)ERA 6.752d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 4.352d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 3 mph WSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: recent opponents high-K: DET 26%, LAA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- ATL — Grant Holmes: 11 days since last start (2026-07-08) — may not be fully stretched out
- ATL — Grant Holmes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-27 — may affect pitch count or availability
ATL Team Total o4.5 (+120)
Grant Holmes is struggling badly in recent starts (recent ERA 5.81, avg only 3.0 K/start, short outings) with a matchup history of 9.00 ERA vs TEX — wait, this is ATL scoring off TEX starter Eovaldi. ATL offense is strong vs RHP (wRC+ 123 in L12). Eovaldi has elite xERA 2.42 but his ERA (3.00) and recent form (2.70 recent ERA) are legitimate — caution here. However, ATL Team Total Over 4.5 at +120 is excellent value: ATL's hot offense (wRC+ 123 L12) facing Eovaldi (who has allowed runs in 2 of 3 recent starts), TEX bullpen is shaky (xERA 4.72, ERA 6.75 in L12). Even if Eovaldi limits damage in 6 innings, the TEX pen will be on early. The +120 price implies ATL has <45% chance of scoring 5+ — that's undervalued given their offense.
TBR @
BOS✓1:35 PM · Fenway ParkWindy
TBR @
BOS✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Shane McClanahan L
xERA3.82 (avg)K%19.4 (avg)HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%11.3 (below avg)ERA0.98IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs80BB%1.5
BOS vs LHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%18.1 (above avg)HH%28.8 (poor)
Sonny Gray R
xERA2.60 (elite)K%27.5 (good)HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA0.93IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs84BB%5.8
TBR vs RHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%21.3 (avg)HH%33.0 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR+110+1.5 (-195)O8.5 (+100)BOS-127-1.5 (+172)U8.0 (-101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR+102+0.5 (-146)O3.5 (-144)BOS-125-0.5 (+112)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTBRO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)BOSO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+120)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShane McClanahan4.5 (-154 / +121)15.5 (+110 / -146)Sonny Gray4.5 (-136 / +114)17.5 (-169 / +127)
Shane McClanahan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
L5.08735346
L5.08735346Jul 8vs
W6.18554000
W6.18554000Jul 1@
W6.06943000
W6.06943000Jun 23vs
L6.07546126
L6.07546126Jun 17@
L3.28333522
L3.28333522Sonny Gray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
W6.09155411
W6.09155411Jul 10@
W6.09135111
W6.09135111Jul 4@
W6.07074211
W6.07074211Jun 28vs
W7.19791100
W7.19791100Jun 23@
W7.093116311
W7.093116311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane McClanahan
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.07.203.05.03.0(1)
at BOS5.07.203.05.03.0(1)
Sonny Gray
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.53.275.55.52.5(2)
home starts6.71.796.04.02.0(3)
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 5-6 vs BOS this season (11 games).
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR have lost 4 straight.
- TBR are 2-3 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-4 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 3.8 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 6-5 vs TBR this season (11 games).
- BOS are 10-0 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS have won 12 straight.
- BOS are 4-1 in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Sonny Gray's last 5 home starts.
- BOS average 5.4 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 5.2 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.55 (good)ERA 4.052d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
BOS
xERA 1.95 (elite)ERA 1.112d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Windy
78°F, Clear, Wind 16 mph WNW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- BOS bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: 11 days since last start (2026-07-08) — may not be fully stretched out
- BOS — Sonny Gray: recent opponents high-K: NYY 26%, LAA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: wind: Cross Wind L 16 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
TBR @ BOS u8.0 (-105)
Sonny Gray is elite and locked in (recent ERA 1.71, xERA 2.60, averaging 7+ IP in last 3 starts, 8.0 K/start). BOS bullpen is the best in baseball right now (xERA 1.95, ERA 1.11). Shane McClanahan is struggling recently (recent ERA 5.45 vs xERA 3.82 — elevated concern) but TBR offense is only average vs RHP (wRC+ 97) and BOS offense vs LHP is strong but not electric (wRC+ 129). Cross wind at 16mph at Fenway has suppressive effect on totals. BOS has won 10 straight. The Gray + elite BOS bullpen combination should easily limit TBR, and even if McClanahan struggles slightly the BOS pen can hold. -105 juice on Under 8 is very reasonable.
NYM @
PHI✓1:35 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
NYM @
PHI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Nolan McLean R
xERA3.41 (good)K%25.0 (good)HH%28.0 (elite)Barrel%6.0 (good)ERA1.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs96BB%6.6
PHI vs RHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%22.8 (avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Alan Rangel R
xERA3.55 (good)K%25.0 (good)HH%43.3 (below avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)ERA5.56IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs83BB%17.3
NYM vs RHP
wRC+133 (elite)K%18.8 (above avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM-10000-4.5 (+126)O7.5 (-140)PHI+1700+4.5 (-142)U7.5 (+132)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM-145-0.5 (-110)O4.5 (-120)PHI+124+0.5 (-118)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYMO4.5 (-108)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)PHIO3.5 (-136)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNolan McLean6.5 (+115 / -142)17.5 (-114 / -117)Alan Rangel3.5 (-156 / +123)13.5 (-133 / +100)
Nolan McLean · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
W6.093102200
W6.093102200Jul 10vs
L6.09875202
L6.09875202Jul 5@
W6.09655123
W6.09655123Jun 30@
W6.09175200
W6.09175200Jun 24vs
L6.010497266
L6.010497266Alan Rangel · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L4.09147355
L4.09147355Jul 8@
L3.16953333
L3.16953333Jul 2vs
L4.09043400
L4.09043400Jun 27@
L4.0*7044244
L4.0*7044244Jun 22@
L5.0*7245011
L5.0*7245011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nolan McLean
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI6.40.477.04.31.7(3)
at PHI5.50.817.54.52.5(2)
Alan Rangel
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM4.011.254.07.03.0(1)
home starts4.05.624.05.03.5(2)
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 3-5 vs PHI this season (8 games).
- NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 2-3 in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 3-2 in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.
- NYM average 3.6 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 6.0 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 5-3 vs NYM this season (8 games).
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 0-2 in Alan Rangel's last 2 starts.
- PHI are 0-1 in Alan Rangel's last 1 home starts.
- PHI average 3.0 runs/game in Alan Rangel's last 2 starts.
- PHI average 1.0 runs/game in Alan Rangel's last 1 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 5.62 (poor)ERA 8.87
PHI
xERA 3.32 (good)ERA 7.23
Weather · Hitter Friendly
78°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph WNW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- PHI — Alan Rangel: BB% 17% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- NYM bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.62 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- PHI — Alan Rangel: 11 days since last start (2026-07-08) — may not be fully stretched out
- PHI — Alan Rangel: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-27, 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- PHI — Alan Rangel: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PHI — Alan Rangel: 2026-07-08: 3 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
NYM Team Total o4.5 (-108)
NYM offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 133 in L12) facing Alan Rangel who is in poor form: 11 days since last start, recent bullpen appearances, last start only 69 pitches (early hook), BB% 17% (command issues), and xERA 3.55 that looks better than his actual performance. Rangel's short outings (avg 5.7 IP/gs but with recent 3.0 and 4.0 IP outings) mean NYM will face the PHI bullpen (xERA 3.89) early. Nolan McLean's dominance vs PHI (0.69 ERA in 2 starts) is the pitching edge for NYM, but this is the offensive edge play: NYM's elite wRC+ 133 vs a shaky Rangel who can't find the zone. -108 is fair value.
NYM F5 ML (-154)
Nolan McLean is dominant: recent ERA 2.84 (with one blowup skewing it — the other two starts were 0 ER in 6 IP and 0 ER in 7 IP), xERA 3.41, and has specifically dominated PHI (0.69 ERA in 2 prior starts vs PHI, 1.76 ERA at CBP). NYM offense vs RHP is elite (wRC+ 133). Alan Rangel has serious concerns: BB% 17%, only 3.0 IP in last start (44 pitches), 11 days since last start, recent bullpen appearances, and ERA 5.56 vs xERA 3.55. NYM offense should score early vs a shaky Rangel. The F5 captures McLean's dominance while avoiding NYM's bad bullpen. HOWEVER -154 exceeds our -150 threshold — flagging with line_warning.
PIT @
CLE1:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
PIT @
CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Paul Skenes R
xERA2.92 (elite)K%23.9 (good)HH%41.3 (below avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA6.46IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs92BB%6.0
CLE vs RHP
wRC+99 (avg)K%26.7 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Joey Cantillo L
xERA2.67 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs86BB%14.3
PIT vs LHP
wRC+145 (elite)K%22.0 (avg)HH%33.3 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT-124-1.5 (+142)O7.0 (-115)CLE+109+1.5 (-168)U7.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-142-0.5 (+106)O3.5 (-125)CLE+114+0.5 (-138)U3.5 (-104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)CLEO3.5 (+118)U3.5 (-145)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPaul Skenes7.5 (+110 / +128)17.5 (-210 / +157)Joey Cantillo5.5 (-142 / +117)15.5 (-108 / -123)
Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
W7.010087211
W7.010087211Jul 12vs
W5.18273122
W5.18273122Jul 7vs
W6.09548122
W6.09548122Jul 1@
L4.08156278
L4.08156278Jun 26vs
L5.09676244
L5.09676244Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L5.08077344
L5.08077344Jul 12@
W5.08596211
W5.08596211Jul 7@
L5.09476302
L5.09476302Jul 1vs
W5.09343522
W5.09343522Jun 26vs
L6.09092211
L6.09092211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE7.01.936.06.51.5(2)
at CLE7.01.298.07.02.0(1)
Joey Cantillo
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.07.207.07.03.0(1)
home starts5.33.946.74.03.3(3)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 2-2 vs CLE this season (4 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 2-3 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 1-4 in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 7.4 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 3.8 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-2 vs PIT this season (4 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 4.8 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 4.6 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 5.50 (poor)ERA 4.012d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 2.582d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 8 mph N
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.50 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- PIT bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CLE bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PIT — Paul Skenes: 2026-07-01: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
BAL @
HOU2:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
BAL @
HOUMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Brandon Young R
xERA3.80 (avg)K%23.7 (good)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%3.9 (elite)ERA4.76IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs94BB%7.9
HOU vs RHP
wRC+122 (above avg)K%20.1 (avg)HH%36.9 (avg)
Hunter Brown R
xERA5.08 (below avg)K%15.3 (below avg)HH%44.0 (below avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)ERA6.19IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs91BB%15.3
BAL vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%43.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-3000-3.5 (-205)O7.5 (+140)HOU+1500+3.5 (+168)U7.5 (-145)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-110+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (+100)HOU-114-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBALO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)HOUO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Young4.5 (-128 / +114)17.5 (-116 / -115)Hunter Brown6.5 (-154 / +122)17.5 (-109 / +105)
Brandon Young · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
W7.09575111
W7.09575111Jul 10vs
W7.08558133
W7.08558133Jul 4@
W5.010258344
W5.010258344Jun 27vs
L5.09387222
L5.09387222Jun 21@
W5.09555211
W5.09555211Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L4.29243644
L4.29243644Jul 10@
L6.09844533
L6.09844533Jul 4vs
W4.08236467
W4.08236467Jun 28@
W6.010345223
W6.010345223Jun 22@
L3.08544211
L3.08544211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Young
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.46.713.37.71.7(3)
at HOU7.50.606.53.00.5(2)
Hunter Brown
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL4.28.574.03.06.0(1)
home starts4.57.394.74.04.3(3)
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 4-2 vs HOU this season (6 games).
- BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL have won 6 straight.
- BAL are 3-2 in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 5.8 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 8.2 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 2-4 vs BAL this season (6 games).
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-2 in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-1 in Hunter Brown's last 4 home starts.
- HOU average 5.2 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 5.8 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 4 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.43 (elite)ERA 2.042d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 2.68 (elite)ERA 3.712d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- BAL — Brandon Young: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- HOU — Hunter Brown: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- BAL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BAL — Brandon Young: 2026-07-04: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- HOU — Hunter Brown: 2026-07-04: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SDP @
KCR✓2:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
SDP @
KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
German Marquez R
xERA4.66 (below avg)K%17.0 (avg)HH%44.4 (below avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA3.75IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs75BB%15.1
KCR vs RHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)HH%41.0 (above avg)
Noah Cameron L
xERA7.13 (poor)K%21.6 (avg)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%20.8 (poor)ERA6.89IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs98BB%13.5
SDP vs LHP
wRC+40 (poor)K%38.2 (poor)HH%47.1 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP—-10.5 (-158)O16.5 (+105)KCR—+10.5 (+145)U16.5 (-128)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+130+0.5 (-108)O5.5 (-130)KCR-160-0.5 (-120)U5.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USDPO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (-104)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)KCRO5.5 (+110)U4.5 (+116)O2.5 (-145)U2.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGerman Marquez3.5 (+120 / -150)14.5 (-152 / +114)Noah Cameron4.5 (-115 / +101)17.5 (-117 / -110)
German Marquez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
W3.05925222
W3.05925222Jul 12vs
W4.08546233
W4.08546233Jul 7vs
W5.08243301
W5.08243301Jul 2@
L3.0*5612322
L3.0*5612322May 1vs
L5.09525577
L5.09525577Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L5.09019277
L5.09019277Jul 11@
L7.010095255
L7.010095255Jul 6vs
W5.010576511
W5.010576511Jun 30vs
L3.28609366
L3.28609366Jun 24@
L5.010858355
L5.010858355SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
German Marquez
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR3.510.292.56.52.5(2)
at KCR3.510.292.56.52.5(2)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP5.08.021.57.02.5(2)
home starts4.49.552.78.03.3(3)
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 0-2 vs KCR this season (2 games).
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 1-9 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 4-1 in German Marquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 3-0 in German Marquez's last 3 away starts.
- SDP average 4.2 runs/game in German Marquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 5.0 runs/game in German Marquez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 2-0 vs SDP this season (2 games).
- KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-3 in Noah Cameron's last 5 home starts.
- KCR average 7.4 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 8.0 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.50 (elite)ERA 3.862d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 5.02 (below avg)ERA 4.352d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 2 mph ESE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 11
- SDP — German Marquez: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SDP — German Marquez: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- KCR — Noah Cameron: Barrel% 21% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR — Noah Cameron: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.02 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- SDP bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- KCR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP — German Marquez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-02 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SDP — German Marquez: 2026-05-01: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- KCR — Noah Cameron: 2026-06-30: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- KCR — Noah Cameron: low-K outing 2026-06-30 (0 Ks vs avg 5.3) — stuff was flat that day
SDP @ KCR o10.5 (+100)
Both starters are struggling severely: German Marquez (recent ERA 9.00, xERA 4.66, 13.50 ERA in 1 prior start vs KCR at this park) and Noah Cameron (recent ERA 9.55, xERA 7.13, Barrel% 21%, BB% 14%). This is as clear a 'both starters are imploding' setup as exists. KCR averages 8.0 RS in home games in Cameron's recent starts; SDP offense is below avg vs LHP but Cameron's control and contact-rate issues overcome that. KCR bullpen xERA 5.01 — well below average. APF 105 slightly hitter-friendly. Multiple over signals align: both starters with high recent ERA, both with high xERA, mediocre bullpens on both sides, KCR trending to high-run home games. Getting +100 on Over 10.5 is solid value given the pitching matchup.
MIA @
MIL✓2:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
MIA @
MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Eury Perez R
xERA1.82 (elite)K%31.9 (elite)HH%27.5 (elite)Barrel%2.5 (elite)ERA1.47IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs95BB%8.7
MIL vs RHP
wRC+104 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%42.0 (above avg)
Robert Gasser L
xERA4.71 (below avg)K%16.9 (below avg)HH%32.7 (good)Barrel%10.9 (avg)ERA6.61IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs79BB%2.8
MIA vs LHP
wRC+131 (elite)K%19.0 (above avg)HH%34.1 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-237-1.5 (+460)O2.5 (-104)MIL+200+1.5 (-581)U2.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-105+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-102)MIL-116-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+102)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)MILO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+116)O2.5 (+130)U2.5 (-166)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEury Perez6.5 (+114 / +128)15.5 (+110 / -146)Robert Gasser4.5 (-130 / +104)15.5 (-110 / -120)
Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
W6.09391300
W6.09391300Jul 11vs
L6.09968222
L6.09968222Jul 5@
W7.09280000
W7.09280000Jun 30@
W5.18682411
W5.18682411Jun 24vs
W4.26813011
W4.26813011Robert Gasser · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L5.08653011
L5.08653011Jul 12@
L3.05838077
L3.05838077Jul 7@
W7.29444122
W7.29444122Jun 29vs
W5.29657133
W5.29657133Jun 21@
W6.09774122
W6.09774122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eury Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.70.537.32.02.0(3)
at MIL5.50.827.51.52.5(2)
Robert Gasser
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.01.805.03.00.0(1)
home starts5.12.345.04.01.0(3)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 1-4 vs MIL this season (5 games).
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA have lost 5 straight.
- MIA are 3-2 in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 5.8 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 5.4 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 4-1 vs MIA this season (5 games).
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 4-1 in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-2 in Robert Gasser's last 4 home starts.
- MIL average 6.2 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 2.5 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 4 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 4.27 (avg)ERA 6.142d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 4.532d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph E
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- MIL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIA — Eury Perez: recent opponents high-K: ATH 30%, CLE 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- MIL — Robert Gasser: last start: 58 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- MIL — Robert Gasser: 2026-07-12: 7 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 21) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIA @ MIL F5 u4.5 (-130)
Eury Perez is elite and dominant (xERA 1.82, recent ERA 1.35, has dominated MIL specifically: 0.82 ERA in 2 starts vs MIL, 1.80 ERA at this park). MIL offense vs RHP is only average (wRC+ 104). Robert Gasser is genuinely hot recently (recent ERA 2.74 after adjusting for one blowup, 2.34 ERA at home in 3 starts). MIA offense vs LHP is strong (wRC+ 131) but Gasser's recent form has been solid. Two quality starters in the first 5 innings at a pitcher-neutral park (APF 99). Confidence is medium due to -130 juice — not ideal, but the pitching matchup strongly supports under 4.5 in the first 5.
MIN @
CHC2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldPitcher Friendly
MIN @
CHCMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zebby Matthews R
xERA5.45 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%16.3 (poor)ERA4.58IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs89BB%9.9
CHC vs RHP
wRC+106 (avg)K%22.8 (avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
Shota Imanaga L
xERA3.67 (good)K%24.6 (good)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA2.81IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs96BB%5.8
MIN vs LHP
wRC+137 (elite)K%29.2 (poor)HH%50.8 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN—+8.5 (+120)O11.5 (+102)CHC—-9.5 (-116)U11.5 (+125)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+122+0.5 (-125)O4.5 (+114)CHC-152-0.5 (-104)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
OverUnderMINO3.5 (+108)U3.5 (-135)CHCO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+116)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZebby Matthews4.5 (-112 / -104)17.5 (-139 / +105)Shota Imanaga5.5 (+100 / -115)17.5 (-180 / +145)
Zebby Matthews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
L3.087493810
L3.087493810Jul 10vs
L6.010239244
L6.010239244Jul 4@
W4.27953444
W4.27953444Jun 29@
W7.08974111
W7.08974111Jun 22vs
L6.010856222
L6.010856222Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
W7.09946100
W7.09946100Jul 10@
L5.010257111
L5.010257111Jul 4vs
L4.28684322
L4.28684322Jun 29vs
W6.19749022
W6.19749022Jun 24@
W5.16944144
W5.16944144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zebby Matthews
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC3.024.004.09.03.0(1)
at CHC3.024.004.09.03.0(1)
Shota Imanaga
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN6.51.382.55.50.5(2)
home starts5.82.085.36.31.3(3)
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 1-1 vs CHC this season (2 games).
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 3-2 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 6.4 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 6.2 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 1-1 vs MIN this season (2 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 3-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 3.6 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 4.0 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.03 (good)ERA 2.542d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 5.08 (below avg)ERA 5.612d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
75°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph ENE
APF 96 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 6
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CHC bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.08 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: 2026-07-04: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: recent opponents high-K: NYY 26%, LAA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- CHC — Shota Imanaga: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
CIN @
COL3:10 PM · Coors FieldHot
CIN @
COLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Hunter Greene R
xERA4.40 (avg)K%42.2 (elite)HH%47.6 (poor)Barrel%4.8 (elite)ERA6.97IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs83BB%11.1
COL vs RHP
wRC+110 (avg)K%17.8 (above avg)HH%33.2 (below avg)
Ryan Feltner R
xERA3.66 (good)K%17.4 (avg)HH%28.3 (elite)Barrel%11.3 (below avg)ERA3.86IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs84BB%5.8
CIN vs RHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%26.8 (below avg)HH%33.9 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN-10000-8.5 (-114)O15.5 (+110)COL+2800+8.5 (+110)U15.5 (-128)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN-154-0.5 (-130)O5.5 (-132)COL+144+0.5 (+100)U5.5 (+102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCINO5.5 (-132)U5.5 (+105)O2.5 (-140)U2.5 (+110)COLO4.5 (-130)U4.5 (+102)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UHunter Greene7.5 (+118 / +114)17.5 (-120 / +100)Ryan Feltner4.5 (+127 / -156)15.5 (+119 / -158)
Hunter Greene · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
W4.26662011
W4.26662011Jul 10vs
W7.093123100
W7.093123100Jul 4vs
L3.18977488
L3.18977488Ryan Feltner · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L2.17137488
L2.17137488Jul 9@
L4.19236444
L4.19236444Jul 3vs
W6.08896023
W6.08896023Jun 28@
L6.08205012
L6.08205012Jun 22vs
W6.09324422
W6.09324422SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Hunter Greene
IPERAKHBB
vs COL5.13.537.04.50.0(2)
at COL5.13.537.04.50.0(2)
Ryan Feltner
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN2.134.293.07.04.0(1)
home starts4.77.664.75.72.7(3)
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 3-2 vs COL this season (5 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 1-1 in Hunter Greene's last 2 starts.
- CIN average 4.5 runs/game in Hunter Greene's last 2 starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 2-3 vs CIN this season (5 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 3-2 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 3-2 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 5.4 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL average 7.2 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 1.93 (elite)ERA 2.722d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 4.04 (avg)ERA 2.952d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
98°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NE
APF 117 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- CIN — Hunter Greene: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CIN — Hunter Greene: 2026-07-04: 8 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 23) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- COL — Ryan Feltner: 2026-07-09: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- COL — Ryan Feltner: high-K outing 2026-07-03 (9 Ks vs avg 4.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 117) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
WSN @
ATH✓4:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
WSN @
ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Foster Griffin L
xERA2.55 (elite)K%27.1 (good)HH%32.4 (good)Barrel%8.8 (avg)ERA1.38IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs69BB%2.1
ATH vs LHP
wRC+92 (below avg)K%25.5 (below avg)HH%42.6 (above avg)
Jacob Lopez L
xERA2.61 (elite)K%25.0 (good)HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA14.85IP/gs3.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs37BB%9.4
WSN vs LHP
wRC+175 (elite)K%27.8 (below avg)HH%42.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN-152-1.5 (+108)O8.5 (+102)ATH+124+1.5 (-140)U8.5 (-125)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN-156-0.5 (-118)O5.5 (-122)ATH+124+0.5 (-110)U5.5 (-106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO5.5 (-108)U5.5 (-110)O2.5 (-140)U2.5 (+110)ATHO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFoster Griffin5.5 (+105 / -130)17.5 (-130 / +116)Jacob Lopez3.5 (-132 / +105)—
Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
L2.02402000
L2.02402000Jul 8vs
W7.09995011
W7.09995011Jul 3vs
W5.08324111
W5.08324111Jun 27@
W7.011293201
W7.011293201Jun 22vs
W7.110594011
W7.110594011Jacob Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L2.03520200
L2.03520200Jul 10@
L1.21210000
L1.21210000Jul 7@
L3.0*6345144
L3.0*6345144May 31vs
L2.05635277
L2.05635277May 24@
W4.2*9136111
W4.2*9136111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Foster Griffin
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH2.00.000.02.00.0(1)
at ATH2.00.000.02.00.0(1)
Jacob Lopez
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN4.60.006.01.51.0(2)
home starts3.09.002.33.02.3(3)
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 1-1 vs ATH this season (2 games).
- WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 5-0 in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 3-2 in Foster Griffin's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 6.2 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 6.2 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 1-1 vs WSN this season (2 games).
- ATH are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-4 in Jacob Lopez's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 6.2 runs/game in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 7.2 runs/game in Jacob Lopez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 5.11 (below avg)ERA 6.552d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 5.90 (poor)ERA 8.782d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph WNW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 11
- ATH — Jacob Lopez: small sample (6.2 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- ATH — Jacob Lopez: avg 3.3 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.11 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.90 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ATH bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WSN — Foster Griffin: 11 days since last start (2026-07-08) — may not be fully stretched out
- WSN — Foster Griffin: low-K outing 2026-07-03 (2 Ks vs avg 6.7) — stuff was flat that day
- ATH — Jacob Lopez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-07, 2026-05-24 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ATH — Jacob Lopez: last start: 12 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- ATH — Jacob Lopez: recent opponents high-K: LAA 30%, NYY 32% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
WSN ML -138 (-138)
Foster Griffin is an elite starter (xERA 2.55) in scorching hot form (recent ERA 0.90, averaging 8.0 K/start over last 3) facing Jacob Lopez who is in acute meltdown (recent ERA 19.04, averaging only 2.5 K/start, 3.3 IP/gs avg). Lopez had only 12 pitches last start — likely injury concern or near-immediate hook. The ATH bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.93, ERA 8.94 in L12), meaning once Lopez exits early, it gets worse. WSN offense is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 153 in L12) — exactly what they're facing. WSN has gone 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 starts averaging 6.2 RS. Only caution: WSN's own bullpen is shaky (xERA 4.94), but Griffin's dominance and Lopez's implosion risk create a clear compound edge. The -138 ML is justified pricing but the edge is real given the magnitude of the pitching mismatch.
WSN Team Total o5.5 (-108)
WSN offense is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 153 in L12) facing Jacob Lopez who is historically short (3.3 IP/gs avg) and currently imploding (recent ERA 19.04). ATH bullpen xERA 5.93 — among the worst in baseball — means the run-scoring environment stays dangerous after Lopez exits. WSN averaging 6.2 RS in Griffin's last 5 starts. This is a pure offensive edge play: WSN scores plenty regardless of game outcome or WSN bullpen concerns. -108 is an excellent price for an elite offense against a struggling starter plus terrible bullpen.
WSN @ ATH o10.5 (-112)
Jacob Lopez is a disaster: recent ERA 19.04, averaging only 3.3 IP/gs with two rough outings (7 ER in 2 IP vs NYY, 4 ER in 3.2 IP vs LAA). Both bullpens are historically bad — ATH pen xERA 5.90, WSN pen xERA 5.11. WSN offense vs LHP is elite (wRC+ 175). Hitter-friendly park (APF 109). Lopez is expected to depart early, dumping the game into two terrible bullpens. ATH has averaged 7.2 RS/game in Lopez's home starts. WSN in Lopez starts averages 6.2 RS. Multi-factor OVER alignment: bad starters (especially Lopez), elite WSN offense, two terrible bullpens, hitter-friendly park.
DET @
LAA4:07 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
DET @
LAAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Casey Mize R
xERA2.60 (elite)K%26.0 (good)HH%36.0 (avg)Barrel%2.0 (elite)ERA2.33IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs72BB%5.5
LAA vs RHP
wRC+68 (poor)K%25.7 (below avg)HH%31.4 (below avg)
Ryan Johnson R
xERA5.00 (below avg)K%17.0 (avg)HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA3.86IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs66BB%6.8
DET vs RHP
wRC+92 (below avg)K%26.3 (below avg)HH%35.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-115-1.5 (+145)O9.5 (+108)LAA+112+1.5 (-153)U9.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-156-0.5 (-113)O4.5 (-135)LAA+124+0.5 (-115)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO4.5 (-130)U4.5 (+105)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)LAAO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+104)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCasey Mize5.5 (-132 / +117)16.5 (-116 / -114)Ryan Johnson4.5 (-118 / -102)15.5 (+130 / +143)
Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
W1.12622000
W1.12622000Jul 11vs
L5.29755234
L5.29755234Jul 5@
W6.29445222
W6.29445222Jun 29@
W7.088101000
W7.088101000Jun 23vs
L5.29768144
L5.29768144Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L2.03531111
L2.03531111Jul 11@
L5.07513333
L5.07513333Jul 5vs
L4.08766125
L4.08766125Jun 29@
L5.08134013
L5.08134013Jun 23vs
W6.09081100
W6.09081100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Casey Mize
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA3.41.784.32.31.0(3)
at LAA4.04.443.04.51.0(2)
Ryan Johnson
IPERAKHBB
vs DET2.04.503.01.01.0(1)
home starts4.02.255.72.71.0(3)
Trends · DET
- DET are 3-2 vs LAA this season (5 games).
- DET are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 2-3 in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Casey Mize's last 5 away starts.
- DET average 4.0 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- DET average 3.4 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 2-3 vs DET this season (5 games).
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA have lost 4 straight.
- LAA are 1-4 in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-1 in Ryan Johnson's last 2 home starts.
- LAA average 3.0 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 5.0 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 2.68 (elite)ERA 2.562d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 3.45 (good)ERA 4.372d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
87°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- LAA — Ryan Johnson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-19 — may affect pitch count or availability
- LAA — Ryan Johnson: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
STL @
ARI✓4:10 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
STL @
ARI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Andre Pallante R
xERA3.23 (good)K%10.4 (poor)HH%35.4 (avg)Barrel%4.6 (elite)ERA5.71IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs74BB%5.2
ARI vs RHP
wRC+79 (poor)K%22.2 (avg)HH%38.7 (avg)
E. Rodriguez L
xERA5.03 (below avg)K%15.7 (below avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%16.7 (poor)ERA2.77IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs72BB%2.0
STL vs LHP
wRC+117 (above avg)K%19.9 (above avg)HH%48.4 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL-120-1.5 (+154)O7.5 (+106)ARI+100+1.5 (-170)U7.5 (-130)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-112-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-140)ARI-112+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)ARIO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndre Pallante3.5 (+133 / -158)16.5 (-127 / -105)E. Rodriguez3.5 (-145 / +127)17.5 (-140 / +105)
Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
L2.02310000
L2.02310000Jul 9vs
L5.09728266
L5.09728266Jul 3@
W5.210225100
W5.210225100Jun 27vs
L6.298411155
L6.298411155Jun 22vs
W6.08526011
W6.08526011E. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L2.02821100
L2.02821100Jul 10@
W6.08757122
W6.08757122Jul 5vs
L6.010235022
L6.010235022Jun 29vs
W7.09115011
W7.09115011Jun 23@
W6.29553300
W6.29553300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andre Pallante
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI4.14.432.05.00.7(3)
at ARI3.17.262.04.51.0(2)
E. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs STL4.10.003.52.02.0(2)
home starts5.01.802.03.70.3(3)
Trends · STL
- STL are 2-4 vs ARI this season (6 games).
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 3-2 in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL are 4-1 in Andre Pallante's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 5.6 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL average 8.0 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 4-2 vs STL this season (6 games).
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-2 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 5.6 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 4.0 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 3.812d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 2.56 (elite)ERA 2.512d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- ARI — E. Rodriguez: Barrel% 17% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ARI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL — Andre Pallante: 2026-07-09: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
STL @ ARI F5 u4.5 (+100)
E. Rodriguez is on a historic hot streak (recent ERA 0.89, last 3 starts: 7.0, 6.2, 7.0 IP — all quality starts) with elite home splits (1.80 ERA at home) and has already dominated STL in a prior matchup (6.2 IP, 0 ER). ARI's offense vs RHP is poor (wRC+ 79). On the STL side, Pallante's recent ERA (3.75 adjusted — ignoring one 6-ER blowup) is acceptable, but ARI's bullpen is elite (xERA 2.56). The combination of a dominant home starter, a poor opposing offense, and elite relief support makes sub-4.5 runs in the first 5 innings likely. Line at +100 gives value for what is clearly a pitcher-dominated first half.
SFG @
SEA✓4:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
SFG @
SEA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Robbie Ray L
xERA3.53 (good)K%13.0 (below avg)HH%42.1 (below avg)Barrel%3.5 (elite)ERA1.89IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs69BB%13.0
SEA vs LHP
wRC+128 (above avg)K%32.9 (poor)HH%30.2 (below avg)
Logan Gilbert R
xERA2.90 (elite)K%23.5 (good)HH%38.3 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)ERA3.43IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs73BB%2.5
SFG vs RHP
wRC+120 (above avg)K%20.9 (avg)HH%36.6 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG-180-1.5 (+110)O7.5 (+100)SEA+146+1.5 (-128)U7.5 (-127)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+140+0.5 (-113)O3.5 (-138)SEA-166-0.5 (-115)U3.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (+120)U2.5 (+122)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)SEAO3.5 (-142)U3.5 (+120)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URobbie Ray5.5 (+102 / -112)17.5 (-108 / -110)Logan Gilbert6.5 (-111 / -103)18.5 (+118 / -157)
Robbie Ray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
W1.01910000
W1.01910000Jul 10vs
L5.010044611
L5.010044611Jul 4@
W6.08845333
W6.08845333Jun 28vs
W8.09524101
W8.09524101Jun 23vs
W8.010262401
W8.010262401Logan Gilbert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs
L2.03243022
L2.03243022Jul 11@
L6.29659244
L6.29659244Jul 4vs
W7.19171000
W7.19171000Jun 27@
L7.010377044
L7.010377044Jun 21vs
W6.19483211
W6.19483211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Robbie Ray
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA3.51.291.52.02.5(2)
at SEA1.00.001.00.00.0(1)
Logan Gilbert
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG2.09.004.03.00.0(1)
home starts5.11.786.32.30.7(3)
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 1-1 vs SEA this season (2 games).
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 4-1 in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 3-2 in Robbie Ray's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 5.2 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 9.0 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 1-1 vs SFG this season (2 games).
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 3-2 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 4-1 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 4.2 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.8 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 2.28 (elite)ERA 4.782d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 3.59 (good)ERA 3.162d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
69°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NW
APF 92 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 4
- SFG — Robbie Ray: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- SFG bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- SFG — Robbie Ray: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-16 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 92) — park suppresses offense, favor the under
SFG @ SEA u7.0 (+103)
Elite pitching matchup with multiple under signals. Robbie Ray is dominant (recent ERA 0.00 over 3 starts, going 8.0, 8.0, 6.1 IP — extraordinary workload and results) despite xERA 3.53. Logan Gilbert is also sharp (xERA 2.90 elite, recent ERA 2.69, averaging 8.3 K/start). Ray's season ERA 1.89 vs xERA 3.53 shows luck component, but his recent form is genuinely exceptional — consistent deep outings. Gilbert at home is 0.89 ERA in 3 starts. SFG offense vs RHP is average (wRC+ 112), but park suppresses offense (APF 92). SEA offense vs LHP is strong (wRC+ 136) but Ray's recent performance has been dominant against everyone. SFG bullpen xERA 2.27 is elite (ERA inflated by small sample noise). Getting +103 on Under 7.0 with two pitchers going deep and a pitcher-friendly park is significant value — this should be a 6.0-6.5 run environment today.
Logan Gilbert o6.5 Ks (-111)
Gilbert is averaging 8.3 K/start in recent 3 starts (7K vs CLE, 8K vs BOS, 10K vs BAL). SFG has K% of 20.9% vs RHP — slightly below the opponents Gilbert recently faced (CLE 26.7%, BAL 21.9%, BOS 18.1%). Adjusting calibration: SFG K% is roughly in line with BOS but below CLE/BAL, so slight adjustment down from 8.3 to ~7.5 expected Ks. That adjusted expectation of 7.5 is well above the 6.5 line by more than 1.0. Gilbert averages 7.0 IP/gs (deep outings ensure he has enough innings to accumulate), and his xERA 2.90 + recent form confirm he'll be dominant. -111 is very reasonable juice for this edge.
LAD @
NYY✓7:20 PM · Yankee Stadium
LAD @
NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Will Klein R
xERA2.93 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.00IP/gs3.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs22BB%21.4
NYY vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%26.1 (below avg)HH%45.7 (elite)
Elmer Rodriguez R
xERA5.02 (below avg)K%11.1 (poor)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA4.85IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs79BB%11.1
LAD vs RHP
wRC+61 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)HH%34.9 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-124-1.5 (+126)O9.0 (-110)NYY+108+1.5 (-149)U9.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-122-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-128)NYY+100+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULADO4.5 (-115)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)NYYO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Will Klein · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 10vs
L1.2*3120211
L1.2*3120211Jul 7vs
L0.1*1801103
L0.1*1801103Jul 4vs
W1.0*1620000
W1.0*1620000Jul 2vs
W2.0*2431000
W2.0*2431000Jun 28@
W1.0*2222000
W1.0*2222000Elmer Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21vs
L4.08044233
L4.08044233May 17@
L4.16415111
L4.16415111May 5vs
W4.29426433
W4.29426433Apr 29@
L4.08034422
L4.08034422SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Elmer Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD—
home starts4.16.593.05.03.0(2)
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-1 vs NYY this season (3 games).
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 2-0 in Will Klein's last 2 starts.
- LAD are 2-0 in Will Klein's last 2 away starts.
- LAD average 4.0 runs/game in Will Klein's last 2 starts.
- LAD average 4.0 runs/game in Will Klein's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 1-2 vs LAD this season (3 games).
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 1-9 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 1-3 in Elmer Rodriguez's last 4 starts.
- NYY are 1-1 in Elmer Rodriguez's last 2 home starts.
- NYY average 3.5 runs/game in Elmer Rodriguez's last 4 starts.
- NYY average 4.0 runs/game in Elmer Rodriguez's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 3.48 (good)ERA 4.142d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 1.932d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather
82°F, Wind 14 mph
Flags · 7
- LAD — Will Klein: small sample (3.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- LAD — Will Klein: BB% 21% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- LAD — Will Klein: 27 days since last start (2026-06-22) — may not be fully stretched out
- LAD — Will Klein: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-10, 2026-07-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
- LAD — Will Klein: last start: 32 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- LAD — Will Klein: 2026-06-22: 1 ER in 1.0 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NYY — Elmer Rodriguez: 28 days since last start (2026-06-21) — may not be fully stretched out
LAD @ NYY u8.0 (-115)
This is the Game 1 (12:35 PM). Yamamoto is elite (xERA 2.52, recent ERA 2.69 after adjusting for one bad start — flag notes the July 11 blowup was an outlier). Cam Schlittler has been excellent recently (recent ERA 3.60, back-to-back brilliant outings: 0 ER in 5 IP vs BOS, 0 ER in 6 IP vs CIN with 13 Ks). LAD offense vs RHP is poor right now (wRC+ 61). NYY bullpen is strong (xERA 3.14, ERA 1.93). NYY has averaged only 3.8 RS in Schlittler's home starts. Both teams are trending low offensively in these pitchers' recent starts (LAD 5.8 RS but 3-2 record; NYY 4.0 RS). T-Mobile... wait, this is Yankee Stadium APF 103, neutral-ish. Under 8 at -115 is reasonable given two solid starters and a strong NYY pen.
NYY Team Total o4.5 (+116)
NYY offense is hot (wRC+ 114 L12, HH% 45.7%) facing Will Klein who carries enormous disqualifying flags: only 3.0 IP across 3 starts (all micro-outings of 1-2 IP), 27 days since last start, recent bullpen appearances, and a sky-high BB% of 21.4%. Klein is almost certain to be on a very short leash — 3 innings max — handing the ball to the LAD bullpen (ERA 4.14, xERA 3.48, average quality). Rodriguez's home ERA of 6.59 in limited home starts is also a concern for LAD scoring, keeping this as a one-sided team total rather than a game total over. At +116, the market is undervaluing NYY's run-scoring probability given the matchup of a stretched-thin opener vs a hot offense.