MLB Picks

Tuesday, June 23, 2026 · Updated 17:51 UTC

HOU @ TOR
4:07 PM · Rogers Centre (Roof Open)
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalHOU+112+1.5 (-187)O8.5 (-112)TOR-132-1.5 (+158)U8.5 (-105)
Starters · last 3 starts
HOUPeter Lambert RxERA 2.52 (elite)K% 20.8BB% 5.6HH% 32.7Brrl% 9.66.2 IP/gs
TORShane Bieber RxERA N/AK% ?BB% ?HH% ?—
Offense vs Starter · last 12
HOUvs RHPwRC+ 119 (above avg)wOBA 0.342K% 21.1Hard% 41.6
TORvs RHPwRC+ 122 (above avg)wOBA 0.345K% 19.3Hard% 36.1
Bullpens · last 12
HOUxERA 3.17 (good)ERA 3.09K% 24.2BB% 8.4HH% 38.7Brrl% 7.6
TORxERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 3.17K% 17.6BB% 12.1HH% 31.1Brrl% 4.8
Weather
Rogers Centre (Roof Open) · 4:07 PM ET
77°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 11 mph NNW
apf 103 · Average hitting · Pitcher Friendly pitching
Flags
  • HOU — Peter Lambert: high LOB% 100% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • TOR — Shane Bieber: no stats — likely TBD or skipping this start
NYY @ DET
6:40 PM · Comerica Park
Starters · last 3 starts
NYYCarlos Rodon LxERA 3.71 (good)K% 30.0BB% 10.0HH% 47.6Brrl% 9.55.7 IP/gs
DETCasey Mize RxERA 2.83 (elite)K% 22.0BB% 3.4HH% 29.5Brrl% 6.85.1 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
NYYvs RHPwRC+ 127 (above avg)wOBA 0.356K% 22.6Hard% 38.5
DETvs LHPwRC+ 91 (below avg)wOBA 0.296K% 25.2Hard% 39.4
Bullpens · last 12
NYYxERA 3.66 (good)ERA 3.12K% 23.6BB% 8.4HH% 34.5Brrl% 8.4
DETxERA 3.16 (good)ERA 1.88K% 23.2BB% 7.3HH% 37.8Brrl% 5.0
Weather
Comerica Park · 6:40 PM ET
75°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph ENE
apf 102 · Average hitting · Pitcher Friendly pitching
Flags
  • NYY — Carlos Rodon: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 48%)
  • DET — Casey Mize: missed a turn (18-day gap between starts)
KCR @ TBR
6:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalKCR+159+1.5 (-136)O8.0 (-107)TBR-188-1.5 (+114)U8.0 (-112)
Starters · last 3 starts
KCRLuinder Avila RxERA 3.90 (avg)K% 16.3BB% 14.3HH% 29.4Brrl% 5.93.8 IP/gs
TBRShane McClanahan LxERA 4.40 (avg)K% 24.6BB% 12.3HH% 50.0Brrl% 7.54.2 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
KCRvs LHPwRC+ 123 (above avg)wOBA 0.345K% 19.8Hard% 46.5
TBRvs RHPwRC+ 125 (above avg)wOBA 0.345K% 19.7Hard% 36.8
Bullpens · last 12
KCRxERA 4.52 (below avg)ERA 4.24K% 16.8BB% 11.9HH% 39.9Brrl% 8.7
TBRxERA 4.07 (avg)ERA 4.24K% 22.5BB% 8.7HH% 36.2Brrl% 7.8
Weather
Tropicana Field (Dome) · 6:40 PM ET
90°F, Thunderstorm, Wind 12 mph W, Rain 3%
apf 96 · Average hitting · Neutral pitching
Flags
  • KCR — Luinder Avila: small sample (11.1 IP over 3 starts)
  • KCR — Luinder Avila: ERA 7.94 >> xERA 3.90 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • KCR — Luinder Avila: poor K-BB% 2% — limited command/stuff separation
  • KCR — Luinder Avila: averaging only 3.8 IP/start — heavy bullpen usage
  • TBR — Shane McClanahan: small sample (12.2 IP over 3 starts)
  • TBR — Shane McClanahan: ERA 7.11 >> xERA 4.40 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • TBR — Shane McClanahan: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 50%)
  • KCR — Luinder Avila: 2026-06-12: 8 ER in just 0.2 IP is inflating 3-game xERA — other 2 starts averaged 1.77 ERA equiv
TEX @ MIA
6:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
Starters · last 3 starts
TEXCal Quantrill RxERA 7.96 (poor)K% 8.0BB% 4.0HH% 50.0Brrl% 10.04.2 IP (3gs)
MIASandy Alcantara RxERA 3.04 (good)K% 24.1BB% 3.6HH% 33.9Brrl% 3.47.0 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
TEXvs RHPwRC+ 116 (above avg)wOBA 0.337K% 20.4Hard% 41.3
MIAvs RHPwRC+ 106 (avg)wOBA 0.322K% 22.2Hard% 39.5
Bullpens · last 12
TEXxERA 3.67 (good)ERA 4.98K% 20.8BB% 5.9HH% 34.0Brrl% 4.9
MIAxERA 2.59 (elite)ERA 1.85K% 26.0BB% 6.8HH% 37.1Brrl% 6.5
Weather
loanDepot park (Roof Closed) · 6:40 PM ET
77°F, Light Drizzle, Wind 8 mph W, Rain 14%
apf 100 · Average hitting · Neutral pitching
Flags
  • TEX — Cal Quantrill: tiny sample (4.2 IP over 3 starts) — xERA is unreliable
  • TEX — Cal Quantrill: ERA 11.57 >> xERA 7.96 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • TEX — Cal Quantrill: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 50%)
  • TEX — Cal Quantrill: poor K-BB% 4% — limited command/stuff separation
  • TEX — Cal Quantrill: low pitch count last start (36 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • MIA — Sandy Alcantara: high pitch count last start (102 pitches) — monitor workload today
SEA @ PIT
6:40 PM · PNC Park
Starters · last 3 starts
SEAGeorge Kirby RxERA 3.74 (good)K% 26.7BB% 5.3HH% 41.2Brrl% 7.85.3 IP/gs
PITMitch Keller RxERA 6.68 (poor)K% 19.2BB% 15.1HH% 51.1Brrl% 11.14.7 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
SEAvs RHPwRC+ 69 (poor)wOBA 0.265K% 23.8Hard% 38.4
PITvs RHPwRC+ 134 (elite)wOBA 0.358K% 23.8Hard% 42.1
Bullpens · last 12
SEAxERA 3.01 (good)ERA 5.08K% 25.7BB% 9.5HH% 39.8Brrl% 6.5
PITxERA 4.71 (below avg)ERA 6.55K% 20.3BB% 12.4HH% 38.5Brrl% 7.0
Weather
PNC Park · 6:40 PM ET
75°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 9 mph NW
apf 100 · Average hitting · Pitcher Friendly pitching
Flags
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: ERA 9.64 >> xERA 6.68 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 51%)
  • PIT — Mitch Keller: poor K-BB% 4% — limited command/stuff separation
  • SEA bullpen: bullpen ERA 5.08 >> xERA 3.01 — may be getting unlucky
PHI @ WSN
6:45 PM · Nationals Park
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalPHI-172-1.5 (-104)O8.5 (-118)WSN+144+1.5 (-110)U8.5 (-102)
Starters · last 3 starts
PHIJesus Luzardo LxERA 3.45 (good)K% 23.8BB% 10.0HH% 35.3Brrl% 7.86.2 IP/gs
WSNZack Littell RxERA 7.47 (poor)K% 11.3BB% 7.5HH% 47.6Brrl% 11.93.9 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
PHIvs RHPwRC+ 121 (above avg)wOBA 0.347K% 26.4Hard% 38.9
WSNvs LHPwRC+ 164 (elite)wOBA 0.404K% 16.4Hard% 45.6
Bullpens · last 12
PHIxERA 3.82 (avg)ERA 4.84K% 23.0BB% 6.1HH% 36.9Brrl% 8.1
WSNxERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 5.11K% 17.4BB% 9.5HH% 37.1Brrl% 6.3
Weather
Nationals Park · 6:45 PM ET
74°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NNW, Rain 8%
apf 102 · Average hitting · Hitter Friendly pitching
Flags
  • PHI — Jesus Luzardo: high LOB% 88% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • WSN — Zack Littell: small sample (11.2 IP over 3 starts)
  • WSN — Zack Littell: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 48%)
  • WSN — Zack Littell: poor K-BB% 4% — limited command/stuff separation
  • WSN — Zack Littell: averaging only 3.9 IP/start — heavy bullpen usage
  • PHI — Jesus Luzardo: high pitch count last start (106 pitches) — monitor workload today
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly conditions (adj factor 102) — adjust pitcher xERA expectations up
CHC @ NYM
7:10 PM · Citi Field
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalCHC-102-1.5 (+168)O8.5 (-102)NYM-114+1.5 (-190)U8.5 (-115)
Starters · last 3 starts
CHCEdward Cabrera RxERA 5.23 (below avg)K% 23.3BB% 8.3HH% 53.7Brrl% 14.64.4 IP/gs
NYMKodai Senga RxERA 6.05 (poor)K% 18.0BB% 20.0HH% 26.7Brrl% 13.33.3 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
CHCvs RHPwRC+ 109 (avg)wOBA 0.328K% 20.7Hard% 36.5
NYMvs RHPwRC+ 95 (avg)wOBA 0.303K% 25.6Hard% 38.5
Bullpens · last 12
CHCxERA 4.04 (avg)ERA 4.44K% 21.2BB% 10.1HH% 37.5Brrl% 6.2
NYMxERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 4.25K% 21.8BB% 5.6HH% 38.1Brrl% 9.7
Weather
Citi Field · 7:10 PM ET
69°F, Light Drizzle, Wind 4 mph NNW, Rain 21%
apf 100 · Average hitting · Hitter Friendly pitching
Flags
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: ERA 10.13 >> xERA 5.23 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 54%)
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: low LOB% 48% — ERA penalized by bad sequencing
  • NYM — Kodai Senga: small sample (10.0 IP over 3 starts)
  • NYM — Kodai Senga: ERA 11.70 >> xERA 6.05 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • NYM — Kodai Senga: poor K-BB% -2% — limited command/stuff separation
  • NYM — Kodai Senga: averaging only 3.3 IP/start — heavy bullpen usage
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: missed a turn (16-day gap between starts)
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: low pitch count last start (67 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • NYM — Kodai Senga: missed a turn (51-day gap between starts)
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly conditions (adj factor 100) — adjust pitcher xERA expectations up
MIL @ CIN
7:10 PM · Great American Ball Park
Starters · last 3 starts
MILBrandon Sproat RxERA 3.89 (avg)K% 18.6BB% 8.5HH% 44.2Brrl% 9.34.9 IP/gs
CINNick Lodolo LxERA 5.83 (poor)K% 13.2BB% 5.3HH% 39.0Brrl% 3.45.0 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
MILvs LHPwRC+ 108 (avg)wOBA 0.330K% 24.7Hard% 43.4
CINvs RHPwRC+ 74 (poor)wOBA 0.281K% 28.3Hard% 31.6
Bullpens · last 12
MILxERA 2.78 (elite)ERA 4.54K% 28.4BB% 9.7HH% 31.2Brrl% 8.3
CINxERA 2.68 (elite)ERA 2.58K% 17.9BB% 10.3HH% 32.4Brrl% 5.8
Weather
Great American Ball Park · 7:10 PM ET
79°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NNW
apf 103 · Average hitting · Pitcher Friendly pitching
Flags
  • MIL — Brandon Sproat: low pitch count last start (65 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • MIL — Brandon Sproat: 2026-06-17: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) is inflating 3-game xERA — other 2 starts averaged 3.45 ERA equiv
CLE @ CHW
7:40 PM · Rate Field
Starters · last 3 starts
CLEParker Messick LxERA 3.19 (good)K% 23.3BB% 9.6HH% 36.7Brrl% 8.25.8 IP/gs
CHWSean Burke RxERA 4.69 (below avg)K% 30.9BB% 16.2HH% 41.7Brrl% 13.915.7 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
CLEvs RHPwRC+ 108 (avg)wOBA 0.323K% 29.4Hard% 39.0
CHWvs LHPwRC+ 98 (avg)wOBA 0.310K% 30.7Hard% 45.5
Bullpens · last 12
CLExERA 4.27 (avg)ERA 4.50K% 24.7BB% 11.1HH% 35.6Brrl% 5.9
CHWxERA 4.80 (below avg)ERA 4.34K% 21.5BB% 11.9HH% 38.6Brrl% 7.0
Weather
Guaranteed Rate Field · 7:40 PM ET
65°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph E
apf 98 · Average hitting · Hitter Friendly pitching
Flags
  • CHW — Sean Burke: high LOB% 94% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • CHW — Sean Burke: 2026-06-13: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) is inflating 3-game xERA — other 2 starts averaged 2.17 ERA equiv
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly conditions (adj factor 98) — adjust pitcher xERA expectations up
LAD @ MIN
7:40 PM · Target Field
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalLAD-176-1.5 (-105)O9.0 (-101)MIN+149+1.5 (-114)U9.0 (-120)
Starters · last 3 starts
LADJustin Wrobleski LxERA 4.73 (below avg)K% 15.2BB% 3.0HH% 55.6Brrl% 7.45.6 IP/gs
MINKendry Rojas LxERA 2.17 (elite)K% 25.0BB% 11.1HH% 27.3Brrl% 0.09.0 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
LADvs LHPwRC+ 64 (poor)wOBA 0.258K% 22.0Hard% 39.0
MINvs LHPwRC+ 107 (avg)wOBA 0.323K% 18.4Hard% 37.4
Bullpens · last 12
LADxERA 3.00 (good)ERA 4.07K% 22.9BB% 11.4HH% 32.2Brrl% 9.6
MINxERA 3.92 (avg)ERA 6.58K% 25.7BB% 12.0HH% 37.7Brrl% 9.6
Weather
Target Field · 7:40 PM ET
67°F, Heavy Rain, Wind 6 mph ENE, Rain 73%
apf 105 · Average hitting · Hitter Friendly pitching
Flags
  • LAD — Justin Wrobleski: ERA 2.16 << xERA 4.73 — overperforming; regression risk
  • LAD — Justin Wrobleski: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 56%)
  • LAD — Justin Wrobleski: high LOB% 92% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • MIN — Kendry Rojas: small sample (9.0 IP over 3 starts)
  • MIN — Kendry Rojas: high LOB% 89% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • MIN bullpen: bullpen ERA 6.58 >> xERA 3.92 — may be getting unlucky
  • LAD — Justin Wrobleski: low pitch count last start (67 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • MIN — Kendry Rojas: missed a turn (18-day gap between starts)
  • MIN — Kendry Rojas: low pitch count last start (45 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly conditions (adj factor 105) — adjust pitcher xERA expectations up
  • WEATHER: rain risk (73%) — possible delay or postponement
ARI @ STL
7:45 PM · Busch Stadium
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalARI-104-1.5 (+162)O8.5 (-107)STL-112+1.5 (-195)U8.5 (-106)
Starters · last 3 starts
ARIE. Rodriguez LxERA 5.69 (poor)K% 19.4BB% 13.4HH% 35.6Brrl% 8.95.3 IP/gs
STLKyle Leahy RxERA 4.56 (below avg)K% 20.0BB% 6.2HH% 54.2Brrl% 12.55.0 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
ARIvs RHPwRC+ 81 (below avg)wOBA 0.289K% 18.8Hard% 36.6
STLvs LHPwRC+ 113 (avg)wOBA 0.333K% 14.0Hard% 43.1
Bullpens · last 12
ARIxERA 4.52 (below avg)ERA 3.77K% 20.4BB% 10.5HH% 40.7Brrl% 9.8
STLxERA 5.60 (poor)ERA 5.98K% 16.5BB% 9.3HH% 49.2Brrl% 14.4
Weather
Busch Stadium · 7:45 PM ET
82°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NE
apf 100 · Average hitting · Neutral pitching
Flags
  • ARI — E. Rodriguez: high LOB% 92% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • STL — Kyle Leahy: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 54%)
  • STL bullpen: bullpen is a liability (xERA 5.60)
BOS @ COL
8:40 PM · Coors Field
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalBOS-162-1.5 (-102)O10.5 (-114)COL+136+1.5 (-114)U10.5 (-105)
Starters · last 3 starts
BOSSonny Gray RxERA 2.69 (elite)K% 18.2BB% 3.9HH% 46.7Brrl% 3.36.4 IP/gs
COLSean Sullivan LxERA 1.78 (elite)K% 11.4BB% 5.7HH% 28.6Brrl% 0.03.5 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
BOSvs LHPwRC+ 176 (elite)wOBA 0.429K% 22.6Hard% 33.3
COLvs RHPwRC+ 141 (elite)wOBA 0.390K% 18.4Hard% 39.6
Bullpens · last 12
BOSxERA 2.85 (elite)ERA 3.57K% 19.2BB% 3.4HH% 28.8Brrl% 5.4
COLxERA 5.46 (poor)ERA 4.01K% 17.6BB% 12.4HH% 45.7Brrl% 7.0
Weather
Coors Field · 8:40 PM ET
83°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph ENE, Rain 5%
apf 114 · Excellent hitting · Neutral pitching
Flags
  • BOS — Sonny Gray: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 47%)
  • BOS — Sonny Gray: high LOB% 91% — ERA flattered by strand luck
  • COL — Sean Sullivan: tiny sample (7.0 IP over 3 starts) — xERA is unreliable
  • COL — Sean Sullivan: ERA 10.29 >> xERA 1.78 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • COL — Sean Sullivan: averaging only 3.5 IP/start — heavy bullpen usage
  • COL bullpen: bullpen is a liability (xERA 5.46)
  • COL — Sean Sullivan: 2026-06-17: 8 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) is inflating 3-game xERA — other start averaged 0.00 ERA equiv
  • WEATHER: extreme hitter's park (adj factor 114) — xERAs will play higher than usual
BAL @ LAA
9:38 PM · Angel Stadium
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalBAL-142-1.5 (+114)O9.0 (+100)LAA+120+1.5 (-136)U9.0 (-120)
Starters · last 3 starts
BALShane Baz RxERA 5.54 (poor)K% 16.7BB% 6.4HH% 40.7Brrl% 6.85.9 IP/gs
LAARyan Johnson RxERA 6.22 (poor)K% 8.7BB% 6.5HH% 38.5Brrl% 12.89.0 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
BALvs RHPwRC+ 118 (above avg)wOBA 0.341K% 26.6Hard% 43.0
LAAvs RHPwRC+ 131 (elite)wOBA 0.358K% 24.0Hard% 38.4
Bullpens · last 12
BALxERA 4.10 (avg)ERA 3.48K% 19.7BB% 9.2HH% 40.6Brrl% 9.9
LAAxERA 3.53 (good)ERA 3.86K% 23.8BB% 11.1HH% 35.5Brrl% 6.6
Weather
Angel Stadium · 9:38 PM ET
74°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SW, Rain 1%
apf 102 · Average hitting · Neutral pitching
Flags
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: small sample (9.0 IP over 3 starts)
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: ERA 13.00 >> xERA 6.22 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: poor K-BB% 2% — limited command/stuff separation
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: low LOB% 40% — ERA penalized by bad sequencing
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: missed a turn (46-day gap between starts)
ATL @ SDP
9:40 PM · Petco Park
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalATL-114-1.5 (+152)O8.5 (-104)SDP-102+1.5 (-176)U8.5 (-113)
Starters · last 3 starts
ATLJR Ritchie RxERA 4.64 (below avg)K% 21.3BB% 9.8HH% 47.5Brrl% 7.57.0 IP/gs
SDPGerman Marquez RxERA 5.28 (poor)K% 13.0BB% 11.6HH% 39.2Brrl% 9.85.6 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
ATLvs RHPwRC+ 52 (poor)wOBA 0.243K% 24.7Hard% 37.9
SDPvs RHPwRC+ 102 (avg)wOBA 0.312K% 24.6Hard% 38.9
Bullpens · last 12
ATLxERA 3.39 (good)ERA 1.41K% 26.5BB% 11.0HH% 39.6Brrl% 2.7
SDPxERA 3.65 (good)ERA 2.51K% 23.6BB% 9.5HH% 39.7Brrl% 4.5
Weather
Petco Park · 9:40 PM ET
72°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WNW, Rain 3%
apf 98 · Average hitting · Hitter Friendly pitching
Flags
  • ATL — JR Ritchie: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 48%)
  • SDP — German Marquez: poor K-BB% 1% — limited command/stuff separation
  • ATL — JR Ritchie: missed a turn (25-day gap between starts)
  • SDP — German Marquez: 2026-05-01: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) is inflating 3-game xERA — other 2 starts averaged 3.00 ERA equiv
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly conditions (adj factor 98) — adjust pitcher xERA expectations up
ATH @ SFG
9:45 PM · Oracle Park
Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
MLSpreadTotalATH+118+1.5 (-182)O8.5 (-101)SFG-134-1.5 (+153)U8.5 (+102)
Starters · last 3 starts
ATHAaron Civale RxERA 8.87 (poor)K% 9.5BB% 7.9HH% 48.1Brrl% 21.14.0 IP/gs
SFGRobbie Ray LxERA 3.90 (avg)K% 20.3BB% 10.9HH% 34.1Brrl% 9.14.9 IP/gs
Offense vs Starter · last 12
ATHvs LHPwRC+ 144 (elite)wOBA 0.378K% 23.1Hard% 36.1
SFGvs RHPwRC+ 107 (avg)wOBA 0.317K% 18.6Hard% 38.1
Bullpens · last 12
ATHxERA 3.25 (good)ERA 7.06K% 23.7BB% 7.0HH% 37.7Brrl% 7.8
SFGxERA 5.11 (below avg)ERA 4.62K% 20.8BB% 7.9HH% 39.7Brrl% 12.4
Weather
Oracle Park · 9:45 PM ET
61°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 13 mph W, Rain 1%
apf 97 · Average hitting · Hitter Friendly pitching
Flags
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: small sample (12.0 IP over 3 starts)
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: ERA 13.50 >> xERA 8.87 — likely unlucky; may be better than ERA shows (check LOB%/BABIP)
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: getting squared up (Hard-Hit% 48%)
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: elevated Barrel% 21%
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: poor K-BB% 2% — limited command/stuff separation
  • ATH bullpen: bullpen ERA 7.06 >> xERA 3.25 — may be getting unlucky
  • SFG bullpen: bullpen is a liability (xERA 5.11)
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: missed a turn (23-day gap between starts)
  • ATH — Aaron Civale: low pitch count last start (71 pitches) — may have been managing something
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly conditions (adj factor 97) — adjust pitcher xERA expectations up